~ 2481 min
Bloomberg Livestream - 2022-08-15 00:00:00
The power pivot. This is the payroll pushback. Hey
2023
CARDINAL
wrong. That is a great question. It's a great question. Hey Great question. Television. Welcome to
Deborah Australia
PERSON
Hey Major market opens
Korea
GPE
way on holidays but we're watching
China
GPE
very closely of course we get key economic data highly as we Liquidity Take activity indicators very very closely later on
today
DATE
let's get you look at Could open bell. Yeah guys we also had
that week
DATE
of financing data as well from
China
GPE
so another headwind facing investors across the region particularly in
China
GPE
of course we're
just a few seconds
TIME
From the open of
Japan
GPE
and
Australia
GPE
. Career is close
today
DATE
for a public holiday treasuries they'll be the other focus at Conflicted here by those mixed messages that we're getting from
US
GPE
economic data is the is the peak of inflation over can the Less aggressive or more aggressive. We're seeing bit of mixed moves there as well. We know that moving yields is also weighing in on the yen here Recap those numbers with the
Japan
GPE
GDP figures in just That is the headline here
today
DATE
for us and we're seeing
Japanese
NORP
stocks. Just moving a little bit higher at the upside here. Turning now to the open for
Australia
GPE
as I said
Korea
GPE
is closed
today
DATE
so we're seeing
ASX 200
PRODUCT
. Coming online unchanged right now of course In
Australia
GPE
we've got blue scope beach energy they're just some of the big names
today
DATE
we're just getting an eye as well what we're seeing
the years
DATE
as well for the Aussie and then that the
Aussie
GPE
dollar meanwhile just above that ยข71 level it is of course being closely watched it could move as we do see the reaction Activity day to coming through as well as I said that financing numbers as well sharing of course we are looking at those
Japanese
NORP
economic numbers with the preliminary reception
quarter
CARDINAL
GDP number expanding but still falling short of economist expectations we're talking about growth of
two
CARDINAL
. Two% on an annualized basis when he expectation Of
two
CARDINAL
. Six% growth let's bring in chief
Adria
ORG
economics correspondent and the current and so yes we are talking about growth but still missing expectations what do you make of these numbers I think it kinda reinforces the doveish outlook that say the bank of
Japan
GPE
takes forward
Japan
GPE
's economy
Sherry
PERSON
we look through the numbers it does look like the consumption side of things still a little bit softer than expected there seems to have been an a drive from inventory as well and of Preaching for a long time that they're not seeing any kind of animal spirits in the
Japanese
NORP
economy they point to ongoing in
a week
DATE
wage growth and of course they say that inflation is is so much transitary due to the fact that it's multi energy Increasing restrictions around travel to
Japan
GPE
that probably would give consumption a booth so Say the overall number is a soft GDP number for
Japan
GPE
and does speak to Theresa May to be a J for example has been fairly underdog a child unlike it's global peers And we've got the domestic activity indicators out of
China
GPE
later on as well but really the aggregate lending numbers were pretty ugly. There's lots Zones that we are seeing all of the signs of a cloud
Activity indicators out of
China
GPE
later on as well but the really the aggregate lending numbers were pretty ugly there's lots Zones that we are seeing all of the signs of a classic liquidity trap. Well there are concerns in
China
GPE
at the moment that a lot of what's happening eh or at least a lot of the tonic and the economy needs isn't more liquidity isn't more money the appetite for boring isn't there because of what's Me on the ground and that's because of the big structural shift in the real estate market given the crackdown that the government has pushed through over
the last few years
DATE
and of course now you have your underground ongoing destruction linked to the COVID restrictions or seeing the latest coming out of Hinan it just speaks to the idea that consumers aren't really willing to eh you know borrow and spend as they should and that's been Fact that the corporate level as well. So we will have some money mark operations. The application is at the central bank. Meet eh take some money out of out of the financial system. It's certainly won't be a tipping extra money into it. That's not expected and answer as I That's because the problem in
China
GPE
's economy isn't a shortage of liquidity in the in the money markets. It's a fact that those parts are really economy. It does need money. Aren't getting the funds that they need and that's the that's the chess center that the government's
Crack
ORG
at the moment. Continue rising earnings set to slow the sharp rally across market under performers Run out of steam. Manager joins us great to have you always how difficult is it navigating the ambiguity not just of markets but where the macro
Me
WORK_OF_ART
is really headed. It's incredibly difficult at this point because not many of us have ever seen high inflation rampant inflation and then this sharp increase in interest rate expectation. At the same time the economy versus the economy is still recovering from the Pandemic and the lockdown and things so there yeah there's a lot of moving parts at this point and and then the share mark is trying to deal with it as share market always look forward to a month What are your favorite trades right now then Yeah look I think what's interesting is that if we look at where the share price share marker is the
Australian
NORP
markets that forward
18
CARDINAL
times earnings which is pretty much on you know on average in terms of the earn Multiple. And so the market is you know reasonably priced and then you know over
the next 12 month
DATE
which just talks about all these uncertainties but what we do know is that corporate earnings growth will slow and then we know the interest rate will go up and we don't know how far but it will go up All that combined it does mean that you know overall index level we only have marginal gains in
the next 12 months
DATE
. What was really interesting hearing the
US
GPE
June Bay is that we are now seeing already
the busiest month
DATE
in
a few months
DATE
already when it comes to M and A's $
13
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
of tech Companies having a hard time really finding growth could we see more of this across the world as well. That's a really good question because as you mentioned that we're corporates are sitting on very strong balance sheets so as the gross slowdown that's a natural area to allocate and aside from the corporates and we do have the you know the private equities and other
Alissa
PERSON
vehicles that are sitting on a lot of cash and waiting to be deployed if anything on the
Australian
NORP
market which is so another
MNA
ORG
bids for small tech company and then in
the last few months
DATE
we've seen quite a lot Of the share market in
the next few months
DATE
just as the market sort of still revaluing some of those sectors that's been sold off a bit to aggressive in the last in
the last 6 months
DATE
. In
June
DATE
, I mean, I keep hearing the bear Rallies look very similar to the start of new bull market rally so how do you differentiate where we are in in the process and what are some of the signs that you're watching out for? Look honestly I don't believe this is a bear market rally we do think the market on the overall index level looks
Valued
ORG
. However, even though we're talking about the corporate growth slowing and the like and they are still growing. And some of the growth if we look at the
Australia
GPE
for example. Some of the We've got you know and then we've got the the the the inflation potentially pick So, all of that is a positive note. So, for me, is that I think the share market would do okay? It's just the return expectations.
And then we've got the the the the inflation potentially picking up. So, all of that is a positive note. So, for me, is that I think the share market would do okay? It's just Turn expectations perhaps somewhere in the low single digit to meet single to a missing Instead of the you know sort of sort of it's about to crater and we just talked about the M and A all of these were underpin the support for the share market How do you play these interest rate differentials across the world? Look at the interest rate they've differential will will continue to narrow over time because
Australia
GPE
perhaps is just on the slower path compared to the
US
GPE
and we do have to tighten quite quite quickly I To really suppress some of the inflation that's coming through whereas
US
GPE
perhaps the expectations there but net net I think you know all of us will see interest rate increase and then Over the next few readings are will start to top out but we have to wait to see when you take a look at structural growth Use which stocks are you like? I know that you're still pretty bullish on healthcare. Hm. I'll absolutely. I think when we talk about all these uncertain Out there for the share market and for a share market that's sort of more neutral valued healthcare is stand out place because their growth is not and the pins by you know economic activity and the like and they have their structural gross levers and it's a fantastic as part of the And if anything a lot of them have been sold off during that whole growth sell off period. So they provide very good underpinning. At the same time are some of the other sort of tech leaders. It's time to look at them as well. Because they you know they do provide that structural growth because you know if we look forward
next 5 years
DATE
the girls will be slow And so you do want those companies to grow your portfolio. Sickly causing looking a little bit tough but we do think
China
GPE
perhaps at some point when it comes out of lockdown. It will it will the stimulus will eventually to to feel some of the commodity areas as well. Paul's question of
the week
DATE
is recession To rain inflation. Look I don't think that nurses recession is necessary to do so simply because some of the commodity areas and For the supply chain is already coming through. We just need a period of absorbing. And also allowing some of those mechanism to work through work is way through. And you know in a way it's perhaps a good that
China
GPE
is slowing coming back into its full capacity for its economy so that Are supply chain pressure is not going not as bad as it could be. So yeah and that and that we think it's potentially we could maneuver that but we do have to wait and see what the inflation readings will be Rebecca portfolio manager June See you again back in our
Sydney
GPE
studio there with
Heidi
PERSON
. For a check of the big movers this
morning
TIME
bell. Oh yeah Sherry very much focused on
Australia
GPE
today
DATE
as well actually here as well because we do have those big earnings coming out from some of the
Aussie
NORP
companies so blue scope still is
one
CARDINAL
of them kick Here it is just jumping a little bit higher at the start of trade here they're
4 year
DATE
underlying profit it did beat Economic headwinds facing many companies around the world with the board also approving an extension of it share buyback program so
more than half
CARDINAL
a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of shares can Over
the next 12 months
DATE
in terms of the other movies to the outside
JP high five
CARDINAL
Estimates in terms of the decliner so we are still seeing moves the downside
Invasion of Ukraine
FAC
and meanwhile
Bendigo and Adelaide Bank
ORG
also moving to the down side hiding Yeah let's get there with the first one headlines money. Ladies thank you. To exit from
US
GPE
exchanges
five
CARDINAL
of
China
GPE
's largest state owned firms announced their intention to do this on
Sign up back in
China
GPE
life insurance are among a group of
Chinese
NORP
giants set to exit from
US
GPE
exchanges
five
CARDINAL
of
China
GPE
's largest state owned firms announced their intention to do list on
Friday
DATE
that says the start over audits continues
about 200
CARDINAL
Chinese
NORP
firms are facing possible de listing in the
US
GPE
as soon as
Access
PRODUCT
to
American
NORP
auditors.
Chinese
NORP
officials have signaled
a thousands
CARDINAL
of tourists trapped in hotels on High Naan could soon return home. Frustration over COVID lockdowns on the resort island sparked protests over
the weekend
DATE
. Authorities say commercial flights for domestic passengers out of
Hotels
ORG
within
the last 7 days
DATE
. The chair of
the US House Intelligence Committee
ORG
Adam Schiff
PERSON
says he hasn't seen any evidence that materials the
FBI
ORG
seized from
Donald Trump's
PERSON
home were properly declassified
Trump
ORG
said
Friday
DATE
that everything taken was decarcified or covered by execut And attorney client privilege.
Us capital
ORG
police
Saman
PERSON
crashes car into a barricade and fired a gun into the air several times before fatally shooting himself. The
29 year old
DATE
man may have said fire to his own car and was being approached by officers when he shot himself. It's still not clear why he chose to drive to the capital area according to the police it doesn't appear the man was targeting any members of
congress
ORG
. Water levels are the key way point on
the Ryan River
LOC
are expected to steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
. He has a climate crisis adds to your energy crunch When the water level is
about 40 cm
QUANTITY
or below and it's currently at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
the rain is western
Europe
LOC
's most important river for transporting fuel and other goods Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and all boomber quick take power by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists
an hour
TIME
and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries I'm finally
Quinn
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg Heidi
PERSON
. Joining us to discuss
China
GPE
's economy. Policy outlook ahead of a raft of connectivity dated you later Visiting
Taiwan
GPE
risking more anger from
Beijing
GPE
. We get more on what this means for
US
GPE
,
China
GPE
,
Next
ORG
. While
Tesla
ORG
's in the like make for good headlines the reality is that even if every car on the roads
today
DATE
when electric it wouldn't be enough to curb global emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation account for
about 29%
PERCENT
of total
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. So what about the other
71%
PERCENT
? Instead of burning oil and gas to give us the energy and electricity we need we wanna do
100%
PERCENT
clean energy Vehicle is all electric with no fossil fuels. We wanna do that with our buildings and if we can do it in
one
CARDINAL
building, we can do it in all buildings and if we do it in all
Terminal speed. Hey portal Gradually improving activity. However, the recovery continues to be tested by fresh COVID outbreaks and ongoing property sector pain for preview. Let's bring in our retrieve Correspondence In
Hong Kong
GPE
see what are we expecting in these numbers? Yeah, a lot of numbers are coming out
later this morning
TIME
. And again, we were likely to see that momentum of the recovery continued at least the headline numbers will show that factory output did gain a little bit of speed after of course what was pent up demand in
June
DATE
following of course the relaxation of the lockdowns in
Shanghai Elsewhere
ORG
but there are of course lots of pressures in the market right now in the
Chinese
NORP
economy with fresh outbreaks in high non with COVID as well as the ongoing property sector. So, we really have to dig deeper The data that we're getting today and I believe me we are getting a complete deluge of
July
DATE
data from factory output to retail sales to fix that urban investment to jobless rate to properties existing property sales So much is coming for market participants to look at let's start with industrial production factory output did have a bit of a recovery following that law of course with the
Shanghai
GPE
lockdown and there was a lot of pent up demand as well Of course for exporters to get their products out and we had a buzz a boost I should say from export demand but we're already talking to some export managers I add a number of different manufacturers and we're seeing perhaps you know export Survey by
Bloomberg
PERSON
recently indicates that factory orders are shrinking and that is an ominous sign for global demand. In fact, just we get really granular and here at Bloom Sometimes but it gives a good indication of right now orders for items such as buttons zippers a sewing thread down
about 30%
PERCENT
in
July
DATE
and
August
DATE
a lot of people who are buying from abroad were buying heavily bulk buying in
2021
DATE
to kind of get ahead of these supply chain constraints and the Delays. So now, they're starting to work off some of those inventories and that pent up demand that we saw boost in factory output in
June
DATE
and we're gonna see it a little bit in
July
DATE
but going forward, there could be some pain coming down the road. Retail sales is also out A key indicator of course of domestic demand so if they're not gonna be selling as much overseas if that weakness and exports will they be able to sell it domestically well retail sales might have some troubling signs as well the number might be alright
about five
CARDINAL
Doesn't contribute a lot but oh. Five% to GDP as well as retail sales on a national wide basis but also could indicate some weakness or risk a version to travel right now and that would hurt services And overall spending in
China
GPE
. So so much we're looking for coming down the pike
this morning
TIME
. Look. Looking for the
MLF
ORG
as well. What are we expecting? Yeah, when you look at the
MLF
ORG
, you have to also look at the bank loans, right? So, the banks right now are flushed with liquidity. The problem is they're not necessarily seeing a lot of loan demand because of the property sector was and just the All confidence in the trajectory of the
Chinese
NORP
economy. So,
They're not necessarily seeing a lot of loan demand because of the property sector was and just the overall confidence in the trajectory of the
Chinese
NORP
economy. So, new loans as well as aggregate financing really dropped off in numbers we got
Friday
DATE
while M
two
CARDINAL
the broadest measure of money supply was considerably higher so banks have lots of money so what we're expecting with the
MLF
ORG
later
today
DATE
at
920
CARDINAL
Beijing
GPE
time we're expecting
eight
CARDINAL
of
12
CARDINAL
economist expecting the PBOC to withdraw Cash from the system through the
MLF
ORG
for the
first
ORDINAL
time
this year
DATE
. So, we have about what
600 1 billion Yuan
MONEY
maturing
this month
DATE
in
MLF
ORG
. We're the median estimate is for
MLF
ORG
of
400 1 billion
MONEY
you on injection and they expect the rate to be the kept unchanged at
285%
PERCENT
. Essentially with that loan data that we got and I wanna give you before I wrap up here Bloomberg Intelligence take on this the surprising sharp retreat in
China
GPE
's credit
July
DATE
should put policy makers on alert even taking into account usual
July
DATE
law of the We're extremely weak. So, lots to watch at
920
CARDINAL
. We get the
MLF
ORG
and the PBOC at
10
CARDINAL
. We get that data dump. There for market watches
225
CARDINAL
in
Japan
GPE
on track to raises
year
DATE
to date loss of course it's been a pretty challenging year for development market But we have had a currency effect really helping
Japanese
NORP
equities that we can also continue stimulus by a very resolute bank of
Japan
GPE
both the topics and the have outperformed their peers and in fact they closed within
one
CARDINAL
percentage point of positive territory Of
last Friday
DATE
which was by the way of
fourth
ORDINAL
straight wicked games for
Asian
NORP
markets and
US
GPE
markets as well but we continue to watch those games continuing to the
Monday
DATE
session despite that
second quarter
DATE
GDP being softer than expected What
US
GPE
congressional delegation are led by senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
is on a
2 day
DATE
visit to
Taiwan
GPE
. Is this in
2 weeks
DATE
after a tour of the island by
US
GPE
House
ORG
Speaker
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
let's bring both type of bureauships
Alice
ORG
for more. Really the reverberations from the Pelosi visit. It does and the reason we're talking about this is of course because as you mentioned it
just 10 days ago
DATE
US
GPE
House
ORG
Speaker
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
made a visit to
Taiwan
GPE
that triggered a whole range of angry reactions from
Beijing
GPE
some economic Against
Taiwan
GPE
and
Taiwanese
NORP
companies And
days
DATE
of military maneuvers in the
Taiwan
GPE
straight including the shooting of a missile directly over the the island of of
Taiwan
GPE
but it is important to remember that these types of To happen all the time if you look at the numbers in
a typical year
DATE
more than 10
CARDINAL
US
GPE
lawmakers do visit
Taiwan
GPE
in multiple trips but of course coming just days after
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
was here you know this is the
first
ORDINAL
visit since then Yeah, this is obviously getting a whole lot more attention. And also more attention on
Chinese
NORP
actions around
Taiwan
GPE
when it comes to sending war planes and warships. This is heightened activity. Spell out the new normal around the island now. That does appear to be the case yo obviously after
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
visit to
Taiwan
GPE
we were looking for at the you know long term ramifications for that and one of those does appear to be that
China
GPE
is taking a much Forward stance, you know, they are sending many more aircraft
Round Taiwan
LOC
around
Taiwan
GPE
's air space across the median line of the
Taiwan
GPE
straight which for
decades
DATE
was this kind of informal barrier between the
two
CARDINAL
sides but over
the past 10 days
DATE
we have seen you know much greater numbers
PLA
ORG
planes, in and around
Taiwan
GPE
, or around
Taiwan
GPE
, we do not in
Taiwan
GPE
. And so that does seem to be, you know, one of the key things, one of the key changes that
Beijing
GPE
has made is to, to signalist displeasure is to really up the numbers there. Something else or a
Bloomberg
GPE
type bureau chief. Find and you can get a round up of the source and you need to know to get your day going and
today
DATE
's edition of
Daybreak
WORK_OF_ART
, Bloombrook
Something else or a
Bloomberg
GPE
type bureaucracy. And you can get a round up of the stores and you need to know to get your day going and
today
DATE
's edition of Daybreak
Bloomberg
PERSON
subscribers go to David go on your terminals also available on mobile in the
Bloomberg
GPE
anymore app you can customize your settings so you only get the news on the industry and the assets that you care The
Indian
NORP
city of
Jamnagar
GPE
is a money making machine for
Asia
LOC
's richest man
Mukesh Ambani
PERSON
. His company reliance has the world's biggest oil refinery complex here in the city.
Jamnagar
ORG
is also where
Ambani
PERSON
is making his newest bet. A
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
investment in green energy. His ambition is closely aligned with the
Indian
NORP
government's plan to reach net oh emissions by
2070
DATE
. But
Barney
PERSON
is not alone.
India
GPE
's
second
ORDINAL
richest man
galta madani
PERSON
has committed
20 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of investment over
the next decade
DATE
. But
India
GPE
's massive dependencies on fossil fuels have some environmental applicants questioning the realism answerity of those green ambitions and those of its
two
CARDINAL
biggest billionaires. Go to the market that over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear it wants to go higher it got a little spooked by the idea that due a political temperature rising Here's a quick check of the latest business flash headlines
Wells Fargo
ORG
is planning to shrink its vast mortgage empire which once turned out
one
CARDINAL
of every
three
CARDINAL
US
GPE
home loans sources say the banks leadership may begin that retreat by reviewing ties to
Last year
DATE
the strategy shift follows changes in the executive ranks and
years
DATE
of costly regulatories for me
One 1 billion US dollars
MONEY
beating the average on this Over
the next 12 months
DATE
.
Yo Mark Vasella
PERSON
on This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. I've always been a person who's just been attracted to hair I like to see and think in theaters.
I've always been a person who's just been attracted to hair. I like to see and think and theorize how I can manifest these visions that I have for braiding and how I can take something that Mac Like it's a line drawing in my mind and apply that to someone's scalp We are the only culture that has here that grows out of our head the way that it does Anyone from the
African
NORP
diaspora is born with this amazingly I want black people to love themselves for how they naturally appear and also to appreciate the cultural practices such as writing that our ancestors have For
centuries
DATE
. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance
Bloomberg
PERSON
crypto
Tuesdays
DATE
. I think that it's hard to put your head around any narrative. Let's just be honest. We've had sort of a shift in are we in some sort of cyclation, fears, moment. People are talking about that
all day
DATE
yesterday
DATE
. The
first
ORDINAL
word headlines.
Japan
GPE
's portal GDP was revised to an A
US
GPE
congressional delegation led by Senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
and Angelin
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a 2 day visit According to
the American Institute
ORG
in
Taiwan
GPE
discussions including global supply chains and climate change. The trip risks keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high after house speaker
Nancy Pelo
PERSON
Recent visit to the region
Salmon Rashi
PERSON
is starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed at a lecture in
New York
GPE
The
AP
ORG
is closures his agent saying the author is now on the mend and on the road to recovery rush she said to have been removed from event
later Sunday
TIME
and is able to talk and joke the author of the satanic Multiple times shortly after taking the stage
Billionaire
PERSON
investor Rakesh Equity investing and was among the most influential market voices in the nation joined in
Wallace
PERSON
started buying shares with a loan of $
10100
MONEY
In
1985
DATE
and along the way invested in some of
India
GPE
's most prominent names including its biggest jeweler,
Titan
GPE
, and
Airline
PERSON
startup at
Casa Air
ORG
. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and I'll know where it could take power than
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries. I'm
Vonnie Quinn
PERSON
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Heidi
PERSON
. Alright, let's get you straight to the market.
Spell
ORG
, what are you watching? Thanks
Heidi
PERSON
I was just picking up on that red head we had crossing at the terminal
just a few minutes ago
TIME
essentially
Japanese
NORP
stocks now looking to erase
their year to date
DATE
a loss of so let's just take a look where we're sitting
Japanese
NORP
dogs that's largely been driven by the
BOJ
ORG
sticking with its easy policy settings in that yield gap has been a supportive factor will really leading to yen weakness Which in turn has boosted or help to boost equities particularly the exporting names is also consumer confidence that's starting to pick up in the country some solid economic indicators as well we just had that GDP data out earlier a good earnings season but let's change on now to take a look at the broader market picture as well because we are seeing
Japanese
NORP
stocks as I said trading high
today
DATE
As well and
New Zealand
GPE
in the green career of course close
today
DATE
for a public holiday
US
GPE
futures looking a little bit weaker but globally we have seen stocks now rising to a
3 month
DATE
high the other factor we're watching though is we get underway for trading
Of them coming out together
five
CARDINAL
as you mentioned and now all eyes are turning to who else am I coming to announce the the listing plans and other than the
five
CARDINAL
SOS
ORG
You mentioned there are still a few listed in
New York
GPE
such as
Chinese Eastern China Eastern Airlines
ORG
and
China Southern Airlines
ORG
and
one
CARDINAL
in power and all these potentially could also just announce very soon but in terms of share reactions we See much on
Friday
DATE
in
New York
GPE
and people are actually expecting the shares to potentially a bounce a little bit in
Hong Kong
GPE
just because
New York
GPE
trading has Companies and there could also be patriotic buying in
China
GPE
for those
Nancy
PERSON
I would like to see more to come particularly as there are voices within
Congress
ORG
calling to move that deadline to
2023
CARDINAL
. Yeah I think what the deal listing plans signal to us to investors is that it is really unlikely that the
two
CARDINAL
nations would reach some kind of significant agreement to buy that deadline so the idea is
more than 200
CARDINAL
Companies listening
US
GPE
may gradually announce their plans to to do list all eyes will also be on the big tech giants with
VIE
ORG
structures so that would include
Aliba And
ORG
by do. Yeah I think that's just gonna be the sort of overhand for those companies listed in in
New York
GPE
right now. Our
Asia
LOC
's dogs managing editorian team to the art let's take a look at oil at the moment as we get this ambiguity when it comes to And a man going into what is of course going to be a pretty complicated supply situation in
the next few months
DATE
. We're seeing breakthrough trading off by
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
and
New York
GPE
crude also a little bit softer as well. Prospect of increasing
Iranian
NORP
supply. Traded really trying to weigh a mix of bearish and bullish headlines here. That possibility of a rain
Bloomberg Sukin
PERSON
and joins us now for more so Sue what are the the dynamics that we're seeing at play here? It's gonna be choppy trading go We are extending the losses we saw
Friday
DATE
where
West Texas
LOC
didn't mean it was down
about two
CARDINAL
and They're bullish positions on
New York
GPE
tweeted oil to the lowest into
years
DATE
and Nuclear deal. Meanwhile Commodities across the board Should fall further and there's that added benefit for the
Biden
PERSON
administration here in the
US
GPE
. It's a political advantage to have lower gas prices because that has been a key concern of the
House
ORG
. Going forward what we're gonna see with the price direction but the bedding according to a lot of the trading data and options activities that short term we could take another like lower and yet it was
only a couple months ago
DATE
when we had oil
above $100
MONEY
a barrel so perhaps not surprising why
Sally
PERSON
did so well. Yeah, just Annie. Take a look at a
48
CARDINAL
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in profit for the
second
ORDINAL
Capacity
The company CEO also expects
Saudi Arabia
GPE
state controlled company things Perhaps in the rear view mirror Hey portal Just saw we're pulling back significantly from those levels. Key number with the latest on the energy spacing of course
Chinese
NORP
demand a key factor when it comes to oil prices the country set to report
monthly
DATE
activity
Discuss
PERSON
the outlook next. Twice as much as possible Can it sustain it's normal at a time when everybody else is facing a very different reality. Let's get the latest now with
Bloomberg
PERSON
's managing editor for
Asia Google Business Brian
ORG
so
Emma
PERSON
what's the situation when it comes to
Sonia
GPE
and
China
GPE
's COVID outbreaks more broadly? Yeah well it looks as though hi Nan you know often referred to as
China
GPE
's
Hawaii
GPE
down there in the south a very popular tourist and holiday maker location is turning into a little bit of a mini
Shanghai
GPE
we've seen cases over a
1000
CARDINAL
new cases a day there
Hotels
ORG
across the board and cities there locked down they are trying to sort of ease the situation somewhat we saw protests from people in hotels over
the weekend
DATE
angry that they were being still charged for their room and board and some people also But they are starting to try and move people out. Now, the only For
7 days
DATE
in their building or hotel and once they get back to wherever they're from they do have to do
3 days
DATE
health monitoring
Emma
PERSON
we're also seeing pretty high number of cases in
Hong Kong
GPE
a
4 month
DATE
high recently where we at now Yeah I mean we're
over 4000
CARDINAL
cases a day in
Hong Kong
GPE
but a very different starts compared to mainland
China
GPE
even though
Hong Kong
GPE
Very different starts compared to mainland
China
GPE
even though
Hong Kong
GPE
you know is extensively still targeting dynamic oh one of the names that
Beijing
GPE
gives for for what it's doing with COVID right now they're definitely A higher level of comfort with AA low level of cases in this case in
Hong Kong
GPE
and still sort of trying to to seal off the border somewhat with the the new
East Quarantine
ORG
rules Hospitalization rate and of course deaths which hasn't been picking up but not to the Where it's pressuring hospitals quite just yet. Global business
ML Brian
PERSON
with the latest Cases across
China
GPE
let's bring in our next guest who's expecting a solid recovery Joining us is Good to have you with us. So,
first
ORDINAL
of all, just get us started with your expectations of
today
DATE
's activity numbers out of
China
GPE
. Yeah so today we have the
July
DATE
activity number particular domestic funds we already have the
three
CARDINAL
reports coming giving out
last week
DATE
which was still well pretty soft pretty solid With the key issue to watch out how about the domestic event particularly for
English
LANGUAGE
perspective that we expecting
three
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
still obviously roughly the same range and translating months they were looking at zip on
6 months% or
DATE
months
DATE
that's quite solid gross
Particular
ORG
putting in the current global perspective we are concerning about the deceleration in the
US
GPE
and your area so from
China
GPE
perspective on that
China
GPE
is providing a lifting a lift for the global economic growth in
the third quarter
DATE
and a mainly
two
CARDINAL
reasons one is that Trying to stick economy open is still not completed yet so still some momentum is going on and
second
ORDINAL
more importantly that the policy impact announcing
the second quarter
DATE
as many policy impact will continue to carry through in
the current quarter
DATE
. I've got the the question is the house sustainable this moment that yes
Third quarter
DATE
constructive. Continue to see that physical support that monetary support as well as you mentioned in
China
GPE
but there are now some renewed concerns about our potential liquidity trap given that Has slowed so much in
the month of July
DATE
while you have so much excess liquidity is that a concern to you at all? Yes I think if we look at the the credit report
last Friday
DATE
You can see that
the Central Bank's
ORG
liquidity policy has been released in
the last several months
DATE
. However, if you look at the long components and also the disappointing headline number
last Friday
DATE
is still pawning at the major issue is at domestic event living on the west side. I've got that's related to the uncertainty Before they see a clear exist strategy and more certainty environment it's a very difficult time to go out to increase the new investment and for household to increase a consumption so I think this is the the dealer we're facing what has been driving the econ Supported by the special local governments we based on our estimate that
the third quarter
DATE
the fund deployments for from a special local
Bond
ORG
.
Two
CARDINAL
.
One
CARDINAL
A big improvement and the weather area that we see a stronger thing for strong investment grows and to add on that actually we we are construct on
third
ORDINAL
that it doesn't mean in all sectors economy will perform very strong as you were going to see continuous diverging performance across industries those Policy tailing sectors like infrastructure manufacturing new energy cars these actually will perform much more strongly however at the same time we see that the weakness in housing market for example that will continue and probably even widening for a quarter I've been as a result of the excess liquidity world.
Housing market for example that will continue and probably even wider in for
a quarter
DATE
. Have been as a result of the excess liquidity we're also seeing bang barring rates at that cost falling a full
one%
ORG
compared to
five
CARDINAL
So go take a look at this chart which really does show that
7 day
DATE
average of
overnight
TIME
repo rate falling does this also tell you something about the productivity of landing and debt in
China
GPE
now at this point in economic development do we To see more physical than to be able to make up for what what this is clearly not doing. Yes so if you look at the compare the market rate right
70
CARDINAL
report rate weathers policy rate policy hasn't changed since
January
DATE
but the market rate the report rate as a countdown and now it's a significant below the policy rate and so that tells
two
CARDINAL
things one is that the on the
Intention
ORG
side the PBOC does actually provide ample liquidity in the system at the busy the banks actually listen to their the the central bank instruction however that in terms of the the relationship between the credit supply but it's credit demand now the weakness is mainly the credit demand as I said that you if the Was much higher much stronger Strategy Hey sustainable how quickly that the policy support was spew over from this policy To a brother economic activity and I think for that is a big question and we have good reason to be more concerned in
the fourth quarter and fourth quarter
DATE
remember we're facing several challenges one is that the the policy particular the fiscal policy support will fit away very quickly and
second
ORDINAL
is that global environment Pig will become more challenging we're talking about the your area likely entering the session and also
USA
GPE
economy slowly so the global demand that you're supporting
Chan Sport
PERSON
probably also weakened and at that time that she if the housing market continue to be very weak and without additional policy stimulus
China
GPE
's close likely
Lose
PERSON
momentum very quickly in
the fourth quarter
DATE
Have you achieved channel economist at
JP Morgan
ORG
always great to chat with you and you can of course always tune in to
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
as well here more from the days big news makers and get in depth From the daybreak team. Radio. Com. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
This month
DATE
as the world watches inflation rise employment rebound and fiscal policies react Economic Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving
That is a great question. Hey Great question. Receiving a
447 1 million dollars
MONEY
With
earlier this week
DATE
Benefits
NORP
by
15%
PERCENT
last quarter
DATE
the plans come is Assets and stay on the sidelines are mid market volatility. According to a regular's investment firm bolstered it Investment firm managed
more than 28
CARDINAL
1 billion dollars as at the start of
2022
DATE
. Course not list of which here in
Australia
GPE
but also in
China
GPE
as well and we've seen the impact on the market economy when it comes to COVID-19 COVID oh strategy and maintaining that strategy of the lockdowns and mass testing that's expected to feed through the to the downside for
Chinese
NORP
earning Take a look at this for
China
GPE
we're expecting
12%
PERCENT
downside when it comes to this earning season in fact for broader
Asia
LOC
stocks across the Poise for the worst results since
2020
DATE
. Yeah that's surprising given that of course we have had those downgrades and earnings per share
four
CARDINAL
Asia Pacific
LOC
members falling
16%
PERCENT
last quarter
DATE
from
a year earlier
DATE
the cheapest decline in
a quarters
DATE
and you mentioned
Chinese
NORP
earnings yeah we could see that drop of
Percent
ORG
in the aggregate profit given of course the MSCI
China
GPE
earnings for sure at SMS we have seen as you mentioned the COVID Revenue but still of course coming from a very low base so we're very much watching what's happening with ยข10
this week
DATE
as well. Enter into this crucial earning season
Lee Odo
PERSON
set to report its quarter Hey Rushing to secure
LNG
ORG
supply for
winter
DATE
worsening a global shortage and driving prices higher
Heidi Yeah
PERSON
energy continuing to be a major theme
this week
DATE
we'll cover up next
El Warren
ORG
capital is The sector so we'll be hearing why but their position
Coverage
PRODUCT
continues. We're looking ahead to the start of trading in
Hong Kong
GPE
,
Shanghai
GPE
, and
Shinjin
GPE
. Open is next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
The
700th
ORDINAL
anniversary of
Dante Alegary's
PERSON
death has triggered the work of many institutions and offered a very rich schedule of events Hey and said to crochet we present
one
CARDINAL
of these projects that suffered a difficult start because COVID-19 has stopped the project that was shared by the opera desanticoche by the franciscan community from
Florence Municipality
GPE
and the fun for religious building of the internal minister. Today
Feliz Limosani's
PERSON
project is finally enjoyable In the positive chapel the
Marvel
ORG
's architecture by
Felipa Brunoleschi
PERSON
. Most important images from the divine comedy created by the
French
NORP
illustrator
Gustoph Dore
PERSON
Through these images we can live the violent emotions of hell The weight of purgatory and the sublime joy of paradise. The digital humanity is also normal cause the digital humanities are a cultural occasion to exploit. Summing up it's about merging humanistic disciplines with new technologies. I find this to be an innovating and modern tool to update culture. Cultural heritage becomes something to hand over to the new generations and not to be put aside so it's about using technology pixels and binary code with a human and humanizing content. Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over I mean that has happened before. We we've looked at this very carefully and yo, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life, Emily? Is it becoming more digital? Well, I'm trying to prevent that but yes. I think it's happening. And
COVID
ORG
has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. Industry overall Estimator are
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
, a doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point, I believe those estimates. It's not that there's not gonna be some blitz and turns on the way, and the majority of that is driven by Technology can satisfy that needle. It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reversed It's
9 AM
TIME
here in the city up in
Beijing
GPE
and also in
Shanghai
GPE
welcome to
Bloomberg Markets
ORG
trying to open I'm David and
Glass
PERSON
with
Yvonne Man
PERSON
. Our top stories
this morning
TIME
echoes across most of
Asia
LOC
game but
Chinese
NORP
stocks look set to struggle after that
week July
DATE
credit numbers that we got investors also waiting
just a few minutes
TIME
on chance econ Activity as well as liquidity operations by the PBOC.
July
DATE
credit numbers that we got investors also waiting
just a few minutes
TIME
on chance economic activity as well as liquidity operations by the PBOC and a
US
GPE
congressional delegations visited
Taiwan
GPE
right after house figure
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
could further anger
Beijing
GPE
. Alright, happy
Monday
DATE
to you. We have a Tap here
today
DATE
Desi
GPE
mentioned that data dump happening in a top of
the hour
TIME
the next hour
TIME
we have
MLF
ORG
in
20 minutes
TIME
and that
July
DATE
credit data collapsing really not really boating well so far this
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
. Yeah they're on top of all of that new home prices are also coming out right so there's lots to get through and and certainly while you they just one bit the other set's gonna come out not to mention of course also some key data coming out out of the region
today
DATE
in
Japan
GPE
GDP and just looking ahead to the week fed minutes you have
two
CARDINAL
central back decisions in the region markets looking like this as we approach the
first
ORDINAL
sessions of the Struggle if you will I mean we're coming off what two decent days on shore volumes have been picking up on the mail and in fact I think we are approaching that
50 day
DATE
moving average Under
Shanghai
GPE
composite. Thank you so much for that. There we go bottom of your screens. Market's looking like this across the region, Worth noting the nickname not the topics basically flat now year to date with these games were seen
today
DATE
we're looking at some great hikes out of
New Zealand
GPE
in the
Philippines
GPE
this week
DATE
we mentioned that
FX
ORG
and
Bonds
ORG
doing this I think we're looking at your twos and then your tens you do the math and you get a sense of really how deep that inversion is between those
two
CARDINAL
things dollar
China
GPE
's doing this
673 74
CARDINAL
. Last I checked the boards please. If we had to thank you so much. There we go. Dollar Swissy. That's a key one. Big big drop
last week
DATE
. I think we just breached AA key. Support love. I think it's Or
200 day
DATE
. We'll get to that in just a moment there. Bitcoin, we kissed
25 1000
CARDINAL
, very briefly,
last night
TIME
, we were a little bit below that, there we go, and look at oil prices, continuing to slide, and certainly the key did out of
China
GPE
today
DATE
will, at least a lot of way shape the narrative, their in terms of their demand for commodities, and of course We'll talk about that later. Busy day as we mentioned here As far as the ecodair front in
China
GPE
, we are counting down of course too. A ton of things, industrial production, retail sales, fixed assets, investments,
this 1 year
DATE
prime rate, what will
1 year
DATE
Emily rate out of the
PBO
ORG
, see on the back of the Friday numbers which you got in your screens right here. Aggregate finance saying lowest since records were
first
ORDINAL
kept back in
2017
DATE
let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent
Steven Engel
PERSON
he's here with us to just set us up for
the weekend
DATE
I mean yeah it's it's it's a weak economy isn't it? We're looking at camera I'm sorry. Look at you now. Let's do. Look at me now. Yeah. Right next to you. Okay. Data will talk about that as it relates to the
MLF
ORG
Of weather
China
GPE
's in this liquidity trap of people not wanting to borrow even though there's lots of liquidity but let's look at the macro
July
DATE
indicators that we're gonna get. Industrial production retail sales excessive urban investment. In addition to all these new home sales, property investment. Yeah. You can kinda guess those numbers are gonna be down but industrial production, you know, we've had the fairly strong export order In the last set of numbers there was some pent up demand and as exporters our manufacturers really got their production facilities back up and running and getting stuff out the door and out to the ships and off to export destinations but how long can that last? So we Dig deeper into the IP industrial production factory output according to the
more than a dozen
CARDINAL
export managers survey by
Bloomberg
PERSON
though David indicates factory orders are starting to shrink that didn't last long right no it didn't really last long so maybe it was pent up demand and this is a Harbinger maybe for some further weakness I mean we get into Rain that are details. Things like buttons, zippers, sewing thread, things that go into finish products you know in the textile industries. Down
30%
PERCENT
in
July
DATE
. The orders for these things. Down
30%
PERCENT
in
July
DATE
and
August
DATE
according to these export managers. Overseas clients are looking to pair down their built up inventories that they built up in
20
CARDINAL
Supply chain constraints now they're working off the inventories they're not ordering as much so IP it might still show that growth upwards but again it might show some signs of weakness coming yeah
Steve
PERSON
just hold that thought we are just getting the wow okay
I'd still show that growth upwards but again, it might show some signs of weakness coming. Yeah,
Steve
PERSON
, just hold that thought. We are just getting the, wow, okay. New COVID cases
August 14 to Sunday
DATE
it has a
two
CARDINAL
hand on it
2312
DATE
I might have missed could've come earlier on and my producers about to help me out here we'll get to that later in terms of the high nine numbers which have been really making up not I would I wouldn't say the majority but the Sizable bulk of these numbers here. But then again, there's a separate conversation obviously with
Sonia
PERSON
and maybe some of the stuff tourists there. Of course, I will get an update of that, but
2312
DATE
. Back to you, you wanna try me on this. That's a good segway to retail sales. Yeah. Was has been in lockdown. You know, for
the last couple weeks
DATE
, I guess. Okay, his more of a indicator of tourism, right? Yeah. And that kind of spending. It's a not a big part. It's oh. Six% Abusing that province to GDP and oh. Five% contribution to retail sales but again it will be a good indicator of whether there's a risk appetite for travel and if there's not a risk appetite for travel nationwide you're gonna start seeing that kind of spending in
the middle of summer
DATE
start to drop so we'll be watching retail sales we're expecting a
four
CARDINAL
.
Nine
CARDINAL
That game but again as those export possible orders are dropping can they make that up with a domestic demand doesn't look like it if you look at the bank lending in this and that people are just all people don't wanna spend right now and that's where we get back to that liquidity tractors. Rates are low. Plenty of liquidity in the banking system. People just don't wanna borrow and a lot of that is attributed to the property numbers. So, we'll Looking at those new home sales plus also of course the property investment year to date year over year expected to be down
five
CARDINAL
. Seven% so Headline number might look okay for a lot of these numbers showing a slight gradual continual recovery but again you have to dig deeper and see if it means maybe there's gonna be some pain coming down the road. So
Steve
PERSON
we went to the liquidity trap here there's plenty of money out there it's just people are not lending or not borrowing I should say What needs to kinda be fixed here? What actually needs to be done to restore confidence and get that money flowing into the real economy? That's right. I mean, you have to solve a lot of the problems in the economy and property and to convince the people that they're properties are gonna be delivered and they don't need necessarily a boycott. They're mortgage payments and just a confidence, a boost Could be as well at the PBOC in addition to the
MLF
ORG
setting here in what
20 minutes
TIME
less than 20 minutes
TIME
time they're expected to take a more cash out of the system because essentially there's too much liquidity in the banking But you're right lending let's bring up new loans those new loans in
July
DATE
we're down sharply aggregate financing as David mentioned as well the broad is form of lending in the financial system
Down
PERSON
significantly, but at the same time,
Mtwo
ORG
, the broadest measure of money supply, was much, much higher at
about 12%
PERCENT
growth, I believe, was the last number. There it is. So you're seeing lots of liquidity out there, but nobody is borrowing, so the
MLF
ORG
what we're expecting
today
DATE
According to
eight
CARDINAL
of
12
CARDINAL
economist forecast by
Bloomberg
PERSON
the PBOC to withdraw cash through the
MLF
ORG
for the
first
ORDINAL
time
this year
DATE
. Basically
600 1 billion
MONEY
you won maturing
this month
DATE
. The median estimate is for the
MLF
ORG
at
400 1 billion
MONEY
you won. Down
200 1 billion
MONEY
you on injection. But the rates to stay At
285%
PERCENT
. Let me just read you one last thing as far as the liquidity trap concerns that we've been talking about
Yvonne Bloomberg
PERSON
Intelligence says the surprisingly sharp retreat in
China
GPE
's credit in
July
DATE
that I just ran through new loans Aggregate financing in
July
DATE
shows policy makers should put them on alert even taking into account the usual
July
DATE
law and loans the data was extremely weak
Dreamly
ORG
weak. Oh what are we looking for in terms of property investment this time around in the data
Steve
PERSON
is there any signs of this trend which basically has collapse reversing anytime soon No there there isn't. According to the date, I'm just looking on
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
here right now. Property investment, you're to date number, it's year over year, expected to be down.
Reversing anytime soon. No there there isn't it according to the date I'm just looking on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
terminal here right now property investment you're to date number it's your
over year
DATE
expected to be down
five
CARDINAL
. Seven% we do have a bar chart on that you can see the trajectory down it was
five
DATE
. Four%
the previous month
DATE
but we're also getting new home prices
month over month
DATE
expected to Another
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Depending on the city, obviously, and where there's more weakness. That's the average residential property sales here
today
DATE
. Also expected to slump the prior number was down
31
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
. There's a problem in If you haven't heard. Yep eh did you say at least
Steve
PERSON
thank you for that preview what to expect here
today
DATE
to recap of that credit data as well let's get to the
first
ORDINAL
word news we have
Vonnie Quinn
PERSON
in
New York
GPE
hey
Bonnie
PERSON
hey
Chinese
NORP
officials have signaled
a thousands
CARDINAL
of tourists trapped in hotels on High Nan could soon return home frustration over COVID lockdowns on the resort island Over
the weekend
DATE
. Authorities say commercial flights for domestic passengers out of
Sonia
PERSON
should resume
Monday
DATE
. However, travelers can only fly out if there are no new cases in their tool groups and hotels within
the last 7 days
DATE
. A
US
GPE
congressional delegation led by Senator
Ed Markie
PERSON
landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit they're meeting with
One
CARDINAL
is president saying when and other lawmakers according to
the American Institute
ORG
in
Taiwan
GPE
discussions include global supply chains and climate change the trip risks keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high after house speaker
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
recent visit to the region Sign up in
China Life Insurance
ORG
are among a group of
Chinese
NORP
giants that to exit from
US
GPE
exchanges
five
CARDINAL
of
China
GPE
's largest state owned firms announced their intention to do list
Friday
DATE
that's a spots over audits continue
200
CARDINAL
Chinese
NORP
firms are facing possible deal listing in the
US
GPE
as soon as
2024
CARDINAL
unless
Beijing
GPE
grounds access to
American
NORP
auditors The chair of
the US House Intelligence Committee
ORG
Adam Schiff
PERSON
says he hasn't seen any evidence that materials the
FBI
ORG
sees from
Donald Trump's
PERSON
home we're properly decasified
Friday
DATE
that everything taken was decalsified or covered by executive and attorney kind privilege chef said that argument is absurd and he's asked
US
GPE
intelligence to provide a damage assessment of the seas records Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
we take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
generalist analysis and where the
120
CARDINAL
countries I'm finally
Quinn
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg Yvonne
PERSON
. Later on but up next
Wealth
ORG
management strategist to And
Hong Kong
GPE
Supermarkets trying to open happy
Monday
DATE
. While
Tesla
ORG
's in the like make for good headlines the reality is that even if every car on the roads
today
DATE
when electric it wouldn't be enough to curb global emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation account for
about 29%
PERCENT
of total
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. So what about the other
71%
PERCENT
? Buildings across
10%
PERCENT
of total
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. So what about the other
71%
PERCENT
? Instead of burning oil and gas to give us the energy and electricity we need we wanna do
100%
PERCENT
clean energy Vehicle is all electric with no fossil fuels. We wanna do that with our buildings and if we can do it in
one
CARDINAL
building, we can do it in all buildings and if we do it in all We'll reduce
30%
PERCENT
of
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving. Coverage starts
August 25
DATE
only on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
and
Radio
ORG
. You are watching
Blue Markets
ORG
tryna open
a big week
DATE
ahead here when it comes to markets obviously the
Fed
ORG
minutes are gonna be the big one here on any sort of clues and really just how The next move is gonna be coming from the fellow reserve wait time with the bats and the size of
September
DATE
hike now how big is basically we swallow
between 50 and 75
CARDINAL
basis points right a base help we've seen the recent job support the CPI reports as well meanwhile we got
Central Action
ORG
in the
Philippines
GPE
RBZ also out both expected to hike as well and the
RBNZ
ORG
continuing to spearhead that global tightening cycle to cool those rising prices of jobs figures out of
Australia
GPE
coming out on
Thursday
DATE
as well we're kinda down
today
DATE
at least to that data dump out of China Yep absolutely and in fact just for a bloomer clients TLIV going your terminals we're getting started right now with their blog there's
a ton
QUANTITY
happening here ahead of that though just to recap you know our pulse survey that we did
Week
DATE
. So, we talked about or we asked
60 40
DATE
. Is that portfolio dead? Is that play dead majority think no, that's the viable at this point given of obviously where price of drop as you can see on your screens. In terms of whether or not this actually outperforms inflation and we're extending
this 10 years
DATE
That's that's the key sort of take away from that
65%
PERCENT
yes If you would or if you had to replace bods what would you replace bonds with here the choices and I think I've
almost a third
CARDINAL
thing it's other than these
four
CARDINAL
you see on your screens
Yvonne Yeah
PERSON
, basically not crypto, right? Only six%. Everyone's getting into kind of private equity. Gotta go to real estate. Also maybe catching a bit of a bit there. Let's bring our guest. I'll be
last hour
TIME
on here, senior investment strategist, charter wealth management. He is in the camp. That
60 40
DATE
may not be dead just yet. This debate was happening
2 years
DATE
back I think the the results would be very different because Which at
first
ORDINAL
investors to you know allocate more to equities and take on more risk but you know the sell of that we have seen
this year
DATE
is very very unique it's only the
fourth
ORDINAL
instant since
1870
DATE
's where both bonds and equities are down here
today
DATE
and the the shop decline in bonds that we've seen Husband that yields our
close to decade
DATE
highs you know across most of the major acid plus so we think that you know going forward we would prefer to be diversified across equities and
months
DATE
especially given the the risks to global growth and add the margin we would be looking to allocate a bit more to bonds at the expense of equities. Okay if if I can I continue that strategy can I still be positive about on stocks and bonds and interest rates are gonna continue to rise then I'll be lashed So we are neutralum on stocks and bonds so we think that clearly
Strategy positive on on stocks and bonds and interest rates are gonna continue to rise then I'll be lush. So
Brian Newton
PERSON
on stocks and bonds so we think that clearly there is a lot of uncertainty as far as growth in
US
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
is concerned even to a certain degree in
China
GPE
right so it it makes sense to take a more concentrated or more specific beds within certain geographies rather than being over the overall acid Because you know while we have seen equities decline here
today
DATE
we've obviously seen a big bounce back which is not uncommon we have seen bear market rallies happen in in past recessionally in the recessionary cycles as well so we don't So, you know, within equities, we do have a preference for
Asia Japan
LOC
equities as well as
UK
GPE
equities and within bonds we favor
Asian
NORP
dollar bonds as well as develop market high yield bonds as we think that the risk reward in these areas is quite attractive at the moment. Okay understood and part of your key assumption ahead of the Fed Minute
this week
DATE
is what the dollar index tops out
107 50
MONEY
US
GPE
10 year
DATE
I believe it's three% the call from you guys not to say that those projections are wrong but you know Basically these conditions were were
one
CARDINAL
bad inflation report away from those things going wrong what's the risk to that view? Absolutely I mean we have to realize that if you look at the volatility in the markets as well as economic data it is fairly high and and stock markets and boilings have been quite sensitive more than we have been accustomed to if you look at moving next right now in our Be the pullback and market expectations in terms of federate heights after the the
July
DATE
inflation print has been a bit overdone so we think that there is a risk that the
Fed
ORG
minutes will indicate feds you know inflation fighting stance and we have seen that come through in the
Fed
ORG
Speaker you know speeches as well There is a risk that markets do at just a rate high probability a bit higher towards
75%
PERCENT
and that could boost the dollar and the yields a bit more but we think from a long term perspective it's difficult to see
10 year
DATE
yields breaching
325
CARDINAL
. Again from a sustainable perspective
Understood
ORG
. Now, I believe just hold in a
second
ORDINAL
because we should be getting delayed latest the PBOC setting,
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
it's not out just yet let me just check that on my terminal no not I'll just Where is
China
GPE
in that? But we think that
China
GPE
is obviously a big component of our overweight
Asia
LOC
call given that it accounts for
around 40%
PERCENT
rate in the index now we are bullish on
Asia
LOC
and
Chinese
NORP
equities for
three
CARDINAL
key reasons right one is if you look at valuations of we think that valuations are below historical averages and from a Perspective. They are a bit under road. So, that is something that that reduces the impedant impediment for the performance. The
second
ORDINAL
reason why these are set classes have under performed in
the past couple of weeks
DATE
is due political tensions and they are set to continue with with the latest with delegation. But from a long time perspective, due politics really ends up impacting Returns on a on a prolonged basis unless we do see a bar player up and
third
ORDINAL
we think that you know
Chinese
NORP
economic data should be positive both retail sales and industrial production that will get
a little later today
DATE
so that should boost market sentiment. Yeah. Just wanna break those lines crossing on our bluebird right now. The PBOC. Hey, they cutting rates. Tell her a
one
CARDINAL
Cut from
2:85%
PERCENT
. To
275%
PERCENT
. This is a
10
CARDINAL
basis point cut of that
MLF
ORG
rate conducting also at
400 1 billion
MONEY
B of that operation as well
Dave
PERSON
I we were not expecting a cut here
today
DATE
. No not not at all in fact they haven't touched this one all year certainly indicative of where they want to guide markets towards right now they're also at the same time though it's also worth noting they're also taking some money
System
PRODUCT
. So, net net. I just trying to work out my head with that bite. Actually, mean, but certainly, the broader story here, there's
a week
DATE
ahead of me. A lot of money supply, not a lot of takers for credit for example, and this is a wash with liquidity when you look and say inner bank rates for example, right? So, the last time they actually Lashes where I'm just checking my terminal right now was in
November or late last year
DATE
from
2:95
TIME
: we went to
285
CARDINAL
and right now we're
275%
PERCENT
.
Yvonne Your
PERSON
response to all this that we are seeing a ray cut from the BBOC here.
At
seven
CARDINAL
five%
Yvonne
PERSON
I realized your response to all this that we are seeing a ray cut from the BBOC here your thoughts. Well yeah it it certainly comes as a surprise that I don't think anyone in the market was expecting that now I think if you look at it in in conjunction with the data that we saw
the weekend
DATE
obviously we saw a big drop in aggregate financing numbers in in the new loan numbers so I think we the the rate cut the surprise rate cut is a response to that and it's it's It's a response to us PBOC trying to support the economy given the risk that that we face. Now, I think from from a from a messaging perspective, this is also a big shift because
just last week
DATE
, we did see PBOC sounding a bit more hockish after the inflation print Slightly higher. So, you know, clearly, it's it's one of the it's it's more continuation of the same where previously is still remaining supportive and trying to help the economy recover. Given the slowdown that we have seen. So, I think the markets would should react to this in a positive manner going forward. You know, there's another red cart. I just hold that thought also. They're also moving on the
7 day
DATE
reverse repo rate. They're all to taking that to
two%
ORG
from
two
CARDINAL
. One% so that's
two
CARDINAL
key benchmarks as far as that's concerned. It took me not really expected You're seeing right now. What does this do for fixed income in
China
GPE
where the sense was inflation Week at least was something on the radar of the PBOC that might be something of course that bond bulls for example would have to think about does this change anything? Well I think if you're looking at it from a onshore market perspective yes add the margin it does reduce the risk of of yields moving higher and that could mean that the outperformance of
Chinese
NORP
government bonds which have been you know a big standout in the global board market space Could be set to extend further right but from from an offshore credit space I think it doesn't make much much difference right because if you look at
Chinese
NORP
corporates lately face stresses from from from slower economic growth so unless we see signs of of Sustainable rebound in economic growth in
China
GPE
. Spreads good continue to remain wide in
the next 1 to 2 months
DATE
. Though on a
1200
CARDINAL
basis we still expect them to compress given that we expect
Chinese
NORP
recovery to together seen as we go along. I'll be like fantastic and we'll speak to you soon again. Instead of chart of wealth management you can all determine by the way on this very very busy
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
for everything
China
GPE
really TLIV go on your
Bloomberg
PERSON
terminals there in case you missed it
PBBC
ORG
out with
two
CARDINAL
Ahead of course up the open
Yvonne
PERSON
. That's something to wake up to, right? Some good news finally maybe for these markets. That we've been seeing of some time when it comes to
China
GPE
. In terms of stocks to watch, we're definitely watching some of these essays very closely here that likes of
Petro
GPE
,
China
GPE
, Hey companies that we've been looking at here Mentioned about D listing are the
US
GPE
as well that news came out on
Fridays
DATE
it's certainly we did see a drop on
Friday
DATE
in the
US
GPE
significance down
about one and
CARDINAL
a half percent or more we're take a look at what it comes to also these Evie makers as well it's
a big big week
DATE
when it comes to earnings for some of these
EV
ORG
makers the auto is the next one here
today
DATE
as well lot of signs that maybe a Those are coming back. In any of these companies as well
Dave
PERSON
. On balance things are bit more constructive rights as we approach the open
today
DATE
just partial list obviously of what we've been tracking here in case you're also missing it we're also getting new home sales and well not new home sales Cities that are exhibiting Your increases that's green and red as you can see that dominance really where you see home price deflation in
China
GPE
we'll get an update of this in just a couple of minutes earnings very quickly if I talked about this yet likes I think it's
Lee
PERSON
Auto coming out
today
DATE
just very quickly have a glance at this yeah there we go sunny optical
Yvonne
PERSON
. Yep and we got analyst actions we're focusing on the property space as well some call some city as well as
JP Morgan
ORG
cut to an underway for times
China
GPE
from JB
Morgan
PERSON
soon out
China
GPE
as well as
sci
ORG
fi whole
Soon out
China
GPE
as well as
sci
ORG
fi holdings cut to a neutral There. There we go. Everything else coming up. There's also this debut here
today
DATE
. It's back the
50 day
DATE
moving average is in focus in the
Shanghai
GPE
. Compose it. We're coming off lows in future. So, the direction is on the way up. The open is next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Good
morning
TIME
. I've always been a person who's just been attracted to hair I like to sit and think and theorize how I can manifest these visions that I have for braiding and how I can take something that
Macy
ORG
The line drawing in my mind and apply that to someone's scalp We are the only culture that has here that grows out of our head the way that it Anyone from the
African
NORP
diaspora is born with this amazingly curly hair that can be shaped into a variety of different ways of expression I want black people to love themselves for how they naturally appear and also to appreciate the cultural practices such as writing that our ancestors have practiced For
centuries
DATE
. Alright, good
morning
TIME
. Welcome back to the shows. If you haven't had your coffee just yet, I love that tends to pick you up. Hear something. PBOC, unexpectedly cutting interest rates,
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
, down
10
CARDINAL
bips, and all to the
7 day
DATE
reverse rep
Seconds
TIME
away here on some property. Right of course this still remains the the big head when it comes to
Chinese
NORP
economy and perhaps why we are seeing those
two
CARDINAL
rate cuts that we saw
just a few minutes ago
TIME
when it comes
7 day
DATE
reverse repost as well both a
10
CARDINAL
basis point hike how positive that is going to be for the market here
today
DATE
still a key question as well and it does that mean the the data we're Get the top of the hour. Activity data. Is is it gonna be bad? We're we're hoping for some sort of recovery from what we saw as well. Here's how they open us very at least in
Shanghai
GPE
. As well as in here
today
DATE
. Seeing some decent drops here just about fit the
one%
ORG
. Pretty slow going. Not much reaction yet. When it comes to the stimulus measures that we did just see there as I'll take a look at the big moves in the currency, big moves, and rates as well on the back of that
MLF
ORG
that rate cut. We've dimensioned about dollar
China
GPE
and the moves there are
675 13
CARDINAL
for your offshore rate the entree rate 674 28. We are seeing yields legging lower here
today
DATE
271
CARDINAL
for your
Chinese 10 year
EVENT
yield now and
Crew
PERSON
not doing too much in
Shanghai
GPE
but slightly lower by a close to
one%
ORG
we're watching
Hong Kong
GPE
very much in focus in terms of earnings as we've been talking about the lives of
Lee Ottos
PERSON
any optical the likes or coming out with earn Here
today
DATE
. We are also slow going.
A third
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
lower for the hang sang as well. We're just up above 20100.
We are also so going
a third
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
lower for the hang sang as well we're just up above 20 1000 100 or so it just tech a marginal losses here also with property as well some stocks in focus we're focusing on we mentioned about those deal listing concerns those companies those SOEs that announced on
Friday
DATE
that they were gonna be delisting from the
US
GPE
China
GPE
life insurance petronako those are the ones that were listed as well side effects And also what we're looking at earnings, earnings, earnings, we had high, low coming out with a profit warning as well, I think you look at what it comes elite auto, coming out Income there and you have new home prices
Dave
PERSON
. Yeah we we do okay I'll take this for me right now there's
a ton
QUANTITY
happening so.
11%
PERCENT
that's
month
DATE
and
month
DATE
that's across all it depends on what city you look at of course but the overall trend really is
11 straight months 11
DATE
one one so one It takes us back to
a full year
DATE
of home price inflation in
China
GPE
.
11%
PERCENT
declines an overall home prices on the
Chinese
NORP
meal that let's well let's take this piece of data let's take what the PBOC did and reducing to to benchmark interest And let's bring in
June
DATE
Hung Lee
PERSON
founder and CEO of
JL Warren Capital
ORG
. They're an independent equity research from focus on
Chinese
NORP
companies and of course listed multinationals. Then
China
GPE
, Thanks for joining us. I know the overall stands from from your end is that it's very hard to be constructive and and and really optimistic on any
Chinese
NORP
asset class at this point. How does what the PBOC did
a few minutes ago
TIME
change things? If at all. I think there are
three
CARDINAL
main factors concerning
China
GPE
and
Chinese
NORP
economy,
Chinese
NORP
equities right now.
1 years
DATE
it's a COVID policy. The other Real estate and overall you leverage campaign and the last one is the geopolitics especially when it comes to
Taiwan
GPE
and the And the
US
GPE
. I think all
three
CARDINAL
factors are incrementally
negative week
DATE
by
week
DATE
,
a month
DATE
by
month
DATE
.
Chinese
NORP
equities. However, we believe the easing does come will be very targeted that you infrastructure spending. Infrastructure projects as opposed to a real Because I think they'll he leverage campaign is pretty clear setting it's direction I mean the housing market even though the price come down you know. One% The overall over
the past the 20 years
DATE
annualized the return on home prices in
China
GPE
has gone up more than double double digits every So that's literally like nothing. That doesn't change the overall direction of of of you know real estate. The bubble in either real estate Determination that we see from the government. Right and a lot of other sectors not primarily of course in real estate itself. Do depend on what happens in the property market. Do you also avoid those Supplementary sectors to the real estate sector. Of course, real estate is
about 30%
PERCENT
of
China
GPE
's GDP and it's a big, a big, revenue contributor to a local government
Budget
ORG
. We are seeing right now is just give you example I mean some sectors that people will not expect that to be impacted by the downpour of the physical budget and local levels such as
ED
ORG
subsidies or the purchase
Substitutes
ORG
now are coming down because local government realizes that they don't have the money to to support consumption and economy. So, I mean, I think a lot of Impact on different sectors. We are going to see in the earnings that's coming out in
the week
DATE
or
two
CARDINAL
. I'm a bit confused on her about just the news that we got from the PBOs see so they're draining liquidity but they're also cutting rates. Let
Nat
PERSON
what does that mean? I mean I think it's more symbolic implying that they under
Liquidity but they're also cutting rates
Lynette
PERSON
what does that mean? I mean I think it's more symbolic implying that they understand the great impact of COVID and potential Economy so oh COVID we've been talking about this for a very long time it is and people are hoping that incrementally you will However, now we see everyone's cities get hit by this very rich implementation of the COVID policy in
July
DATE
. It was turned through and this month it was high nine. So, all those numbers, I mean, we are seeing nationwide on Recall traffic. Consumption the For example in
the fall
DATE
after the after
Congress
ORG
. The most population will have such a deep grounded fear that this COVID is Debilitating disease and even with the incremental, you know, relaxation of the of the headline. We are not willing to go out and go back to their normal lives. Because they don't want the, you know, just accidentally get this infection You know and which will impact that their employment et cetera. So I think that will take time to to change the people's behavior such that you know we're just going to see
the week
DATE
coming up consumption for a while. I was gonna get the consumption because one sector that you're a bit more bearish on is EVs when when the rest of the market almost seems Saying if there's any sector that's gonna benefit from the reopening story, from the stimulus story, policy tail is alike. Is the
EV
ORG
sector? Why go against this trade? It's exactly what you said because the perception is such that it has the tail wing of the policy support Like we said like what we are just we were just discussing right? I mean the COVID and COVID policy in Hey Such that you know we're still seeing this double digit style in reheal traffic and local government fiscal budget is not in a great condition to continuous Subsidies in many local areas so I think We will start to see the
monthly
DATE
delivery pay there to weekend in most to come actually we already seeing that you order Hey And we are expecting that Qthree is going to be really challenging and particularly in
summer
DATE
EV
ORG
So when
Neo
PERSON
has perhaps
EP five
LAW
coming to the market in Q
four
CARDINAL
and couple of more new models coming up
Next year
DATE
. Has a new model coming up relatively soon. Doesn't have a straw. Pipeline. So, it's going to lose market share to not only
Neo
PERSON
, not only you know,
Lee
PERSON
and the pure playing EB space but also traditional. EB make traditional automakers such
BYD
ORG
and new commerce such as
Leap
LOC
which is supposed to be a new
IPO
ORG
soon. So, we are seeing this segment is getting extremely competitive and I think that's something that you masters
40
CARDINAL
embrace the app Do you know I think the if I remember correctly Latest bank of
America
GPE
fund managers survey either
last month
DATE
or
the month
DATE
before that You know a lot of them on the buyer side have started to relook at exposure to
China
GPE
or pivot back so I certainly need to sell side will tell you as much if if not more is there any part of this
Chinese
NORP
equity market or bond market given repricing is that you're actually bullish on. No unfortunately no I mean I wish I could say yes.
Part of this
Chinese
NORP
equity market or bond market given repricing is that you're actually bullish on. No unfortunately no I mean I wish I could say yes So so I'm sure there would be a group of companies and group of sectors that benefit from you know the new sort of dynamics of accelerating investments in tech and the sort of military infrastructure as the the Reset. When we think about you know offshore investments Nominated Lot not a lot especially you know those meet with the liquidity criteria so if anything we still think that there are some short ideas that are you know reward attractive as opposed to a long ideas. Okay and we'll talk about that next time and get into that further I'm sure a lot of people would like to hear about those culture and how many thank you so much for joining us in the
US
GPE
out of JL Warren capital let's get it over now from well
the West Coast
LOC
to
the east coast
LOC
in
New York
GPE
wanting
Quince
PERSON
there she has your
first
ORDINAL
review Thank you. Us capital police say a man crashed his car into a barricade and fired a gun into the air several times before fatally shooting himself. Police say
the 29 year old
DATE
man may have said fire to his own car. And was being approached by officers when he shot himself. It's still not clear why he chose to drive to the capital area. According to the It doesn't appear the man was targeting any members of
congress Water
ORG
levels are the key way point on
the Ryan River
LOC
are expected to study at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
as a climate crisis adds to
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch many barges can't transit past the margarit cow which is west of
Frankfort
LOC
when the water level is
about 40 cm
QUANTITY
or below it's currently at
about 35
CARDINAL
The Ryan is
Western Europe's
LOC
most important river for transporting fuel and other goods.
Salman Rushty
PERSON
is starting to recover in
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed at lecture in
New York AP
GPE
has closured his agent saying the author is now on the road to recovery
Russia
GPE
has said to have been removed from a ventilator
Sunday
DATE
and is able to talk and joke the author of the satanic verses suffered serious injuries on
Friday
DATE
after being Multiple times shortly after taking the stage Former
Jane
PERSON
's death at the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. Investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse
Billionaire
PERSON
investor Has died. He was
62
DATE
. He was dubbed
India
GPE
's war involved due to his reputation for a long-term equity investing and was among the most influential market voices in the nation. Started my shares with a loan of $
100
MONEY
in
1985
DATE
and along the way invested in some of
India
GPE
's most prominent names including its biggest jeweler,
Titan
GPE
, and airline startup at
Casa Air
ORG
. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and I'll do very quick take power over
2700
DATE
journalist analysis and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries I'm
Donnie Quinn
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Right just ahead we had some earnings out of a ram coast we'll talk about that in
a couple of minutes
TIME
Very, very simply, the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of any listed company, massive, massive numbers, they will have a closer look at that
Unexpected
ORG
rate cuts cuts in fact there out of the PBOC that's all I had this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
The difference between endless research and a winning strategy.
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
combines the latest in
AI
GPE
powered tools and in-depth analysis to accelerate the research process. To grow your practice and make better use of your valuable time. The difference is
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
Choose Bloomberg. Hey Well the recent rally in oil prices certainly did house how do you arrive Another record as David mentioned it was the biggest
quarterly
DATE
adjustive profit of any list of company globally a $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
worth let's bring a suitcase joining us with more and Sue quite Fall there. We know where it came from by
Russia
GPE
invading
Ukraine
GPE
pushed the oil prices up well above
one
CARDINAL
One
CARDINAL
point and that has been a windfall for many of the big oil companies but nobody appears to a It as much as
Saudi Arabia
GPE
Stay controlled oil company
48
CARDINAL
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in profit free cash flow As well as to expand capacity Transitioning away from fossil fuels but they see demand for their products continuing to Economic pressure on the short term global forecast but we're seeing this kind of boom for a lot of energy companies exon and shell post Oil prices served well above
100
CARDINAL
they've been retreating for several Economic conditions globally and what that may mean for demand. Well speaking of oil's been on the down trend from
last week
DATE
in fact I think we close below a key level on
Friday
DATE
and we're seeing some weakness
today
DATE
see what's been behind this drop in oil prices yeah actually Trading I think below 92 in Agent Trading and Nata extension the last we saw
Friday
DATE
a better than
two and a half Drop
DATE
in
new york
GPE
trading so yes oil down and that has a lot to do with the mix of both bearish and bullish
Trader Wing
PERSON
.
European Union
ORG
brokered nuclear deal if To the right guarantee so that would possibly put more oil supply out there that's bearish and then you've got cooling inflation that could ease the pace of
Hikes
ORG
. Now, looking at the
Bloomberg
PERSON
here, if you look at the blue line, which is against inflation, the white line, the blue line has dropped off significant That's the price of gas at the pub here in
For the
first
ORDINAL
time since
March
DATE
kind of a relief for consumers and a
Us
GPE
should fall further but significantly in terms of direction of Short term looks We've got another like lower to go. Suki and live for us out of
New York
GPE
. Let's get it over now. Also in
New York
GPE
,
Vernie Quince
PERSON
, there she has your latest business flash headlines. Ronnie. David, thank you.
Chinese
NORP
deliver a long
four
CARDINAL
group. It said to be receiving a
447 1 million dollars
MONEY
syndicated loan which would potentially alleviate market concern about this liquidity. As sources, the company has reached an agree
Design
ORG
a contract for the loan with state owned and foreign banks as early as
this week
DATE
. Blue scope steel is reported underlying fully profit of
one
CARDINAL
.
9 billion US dollars
MONEY
meeting the average analyst estimate revenue of
13
CARDINAL
and a half
one 1 million
QUANTITY
was up
48%
PERCENT
on
the year
DATE
bluescope so continued strong demand for steel products despite recent volatility the board approved to buy back increase of up to 356 Over
the next 12 months
DATE
Those who latest business start headlines.
Yvonne
PERSON
. Alright Vonnie yeah six% out for Blue Scope we'll be speaking with the managing director at the CEO
Mark Vasella
PERSON
live here on
Lubert Television
PERSON
that's gonna be
10 AM Hong Kong
TIME
time
12 PM
TIME
Sydney
GPE
on the back of those Results as well.
Dave
PERSON
. Another record for them just a change of the marketone narrative here. There we go. Session highs and
Chinese
NORP
equity markets after those
two
CARDINAL
rate cuts out of the
PBO
ORG
, see a
10 minutes
TIME
ahead, some key activity data coming That's all I had in a preview of that suit plus a recap of what they did
30 minutes
TIME
back this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
Today
DATE
's
CFO
ORG
's are reshaping the sea suite positioning companies to meet the next generation of challenges breaking out of traditional roles to become
G Future Officer One
ORG
of the most important things is looking around the corner. Right welcome back to the shows the I look at our chart here of the just sort of spaghetti and
ABC
ORG
noodle soup of PBOC rate interest rates here and there we go the
two
CARDINAL
unexpected cuts
1 year
DATE
Left and your
seven
CARDINAL
date reverse repo let's bring in
James Mager
PERSON
our greater
China
GPE
editor joining us right now
James
PERSON
we're getting it we're gonna get some data in about what
just under 10 minutes
TIME
from now was what they did a preview perhaps so bad that data's gonna be I think what you saw
today
DATE
was a reaction to what the day we got on
Friday
DATE
with a credit date that came on
Friday
DATE
which showed us a collapse in loans both to households and to to corporate to companies. Yeah, incredibly weak.
Collapse And to to corporate the companies. Yeah, incredibly weak. Learn demand from, from companies, and I think that PBOC is reacting to that. By trying to make landing a little bit cheaper. The problem is that, you know, there isn't a lack of credit in the system. There's a lot of cheap credit in the system. Banks can actually borrow from each other cheap and that they can borrow from the, PBSC and the loans that were they're the
PBS
ORG
you put out today so the problem is that there's a lack of money and it's other than money is too expensive and so making money cheap by cutting rates will help that problem is there's just like a credit demand a companies don't wanna borrow households don't wanna borrow so it's unclear how much of an effect this this rate cut from the PBSC
this morning
TIME
is really gonna have to boost credit to man and to boost to boost Yeah, a lot of questions about that. New cases
James Hollis
PERSON
I can reporting
1162
DATE
COVID cases there. Obviously this is where we've been seeing most of these COVID infections in
China
GPE
. We just broke up. I think about 2000. A nationwide. I just wonder Tourist destination under once again a lockdown. I mean the services industry in
China
GPE
has been decimated
the last two and a half years
DATE
I mean I don't holidays last that we put lasting and the number of hotels that were shot the number of restaurants that were shot you know it's been incredibly damaging for tourism for services for travel all those kinds of things so I think you will see Overall retail sales and overall consumption people are still have to go shopping and buy food and things but you know without a change to the COVID oh policies and without a change the possibility that you could get locked down at any time where have you go anywhere you know there was video I've people being locked down
today
DATE
in an
IKEA
ORG
in
Shanghai
GPE
over Can you Tourism sections in the economy. There is a change in COVID oh. I mean there there are worst places to be locked in than
Ikea
PERSON
at least there's so many to lie down on there but yes point take Not bad too. Market, couple of market checks, or of course right now, equity markets on the way up. This yields are continuing to push lower in
China
GPE
,
Chinese
NORP
tenure yield now below
two
CARDINAL
. Seven%. The data's breaking next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over supply. I mean, that has happened before We we we've looked at this very carefully and you know, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life, Emily? Is it becoming more digital? Well, I'm trying to prevent that but yeah. Hey COVID has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. The semi conductor industry overall and estimates are a
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. A doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point. It's not that there's not gonna be some blitz and turns on the way and the majority of that is driven by Process technology of which
only three
CARDINAL
companies can satisfy that needle. Here we go. Welcome back to the shows here. It's almost 10 AM. We're here in
Hong Kong
GPE
up in
Bay
LOC
. Welcome to
Bloomberg Markets
ORG
.
Asian
NORP
,
David Inglass
PERSON
with
Yvonne Mann
PERSON
.
Juan
PERSON
. That we're just seconds away from that data done
july
DATE
activity data out of
China
GPE
and yeah before even that happened we have a surprise breakouts from the See here
this morning
TIME
when it comes to
MLF
ORG
the
7 day
DATE
reverse repo so you are seeing equity markets in
Greater China
LOC
basically turn into the positive now that was not expected you also knew home prices
11 straight month
DATE
where we have seen prices fall so it doesn't go well for what we are about to see here perhaps in
July
DATE
Yeah it might that be a preview of this one right this is is
one
CARDINAL
part of the narrative the other one is it was this a reaction also what
James Maker
PERSON
pointed out a reaction to just that collapse in in an actual credit number the numbers are out alright here we go there's a ton I'll start then you you take some right okay industrial production ooh Oh my goodness. Alright, that's a big mess.
Three
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
. The estimate is for
four
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
. Retail sales
two
CARDINAL
. Seven% estimate
491%
PERCENT
. Yeah that's a quite a sizable miss there we were expecting maybe some sort of rejuvenation and retail sales and consumption side of things here fix acid investment we're talking five. Seven% that also was lower than expected and properly investment this is the big one we've been watching For as well.
Six.
CARDINAL
Four% that is bigger than expected to
Dave
PERSON
. Yeah Trying to look for a silver lining here. Well, well, the jobless rate fell, right? A
545%
PERCENT
. and
a half percent
PERCENT
was the estimate. Let's get instant reaction, a hell and chow is here with us on set, both global research apex. Economics hit and also great Of course. So, yeah. All yours. All yours. But I would say that it still showed that the Current.
I would say that it still showed that the domestic demand is currently pretty weak and in dust warrant more policy easing so ask the surprise interestary card
this morning
TIME
seems to be suggesting policy makers are concerned and they want to make a gesture
10
CARDINAL
basis points is almost like not a big deal right It's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care. But if you look at the
IP
ORG
for example, industrial production, that seems to be much weaker, and at the time one, you know, exports were still holding up relatively okay. That seems to be suggesting that the message man is particularly weak. At the same time, retail sales, I think that's a bigger mess compared to to And this is saying that consumer demand is very you know very vulnerable at the moment and it does require more stimulus. So it it doesn't seem that well
one
CARDINAL
pillar to your point was exports. Right? Doesn't seem well that's gonna go away because of the slowdown happening and you're already seeing signs of that now. Easy growth now. Oh, yeah. With this, I mean, just ballpark really of where you think you might need to revise your forecast. Standing at So
first
ORDINAL
half was a
two
CARDINAL
. Five because we had a four. Eight and then oh.
Four
CARDINAL
. Yeah. But then in
the second half
DATE
we're expecting a close to four% in
the third quarter
DATE
, a close to five% in the in
the fourth quarter
DATE
. So in the way this has still has some assumptions based on the fact that we are expecting a reopening after the
Congress
ORG
in
October
DATE
if that does happen I would say that there is a good chance we're still gather
three
CARDINAL
. Five% for
the whole year
DATE
. Okay that's a that's a big assumption
Helen
PERSON
and I wonder the fact that we saw these policy cuts here
today
DATE
should should I assume that the PBOC you'll in terms of Priorities and what's on the agenda is supporting growth still the big theme. Well, they certainly is. The
PPOC
ORG
has a very important policy target that includes a growth stability, you know, job market growth as well as inflations stability. But at the I would say that they are current priority should be shifting definitely more towards the growth supporting part but if judged up by
the the the Third quarter
DATE
monetary policy report that was released
the last week
DATE
it seems that they still have some lingering concerns Inflation Already as low as oh.
Eight%
ORG
even lower than what we see in
Japan
GPE
I don't know why that we still have to be so worried about inflation at a time when the message about it so weak so it's good to see that they're finally cutting a bit despite the fact that the you know the
US
GPE
is still hiking So should I be worried about capital flows outflows increasing then that pressure? Well, I would say that at the moment you know, judge by the most recent imperical evidence. There doesn't seem to be, you know, a lot to worry about at the time when current council plays still at all time high. Because of the very high trade surplus and the the ones that we have seen in
the past a
DATE
few We're so high. Extremely weak and that was the reason why that we end up with a very high trace surplus and current council plus and at the same time very little pressure in in effects clearance in settlement Even if
China
GPE
cuts rates we're going to see too much pressure on on the exchange rate front Ask your thoughts about property and what they do about this. Obviously, private investment is falling. You see that with prices themselves falling. Is there a magic pill? And how long do you think will be in this sort of boat before we see some semblance of a recovery Well, I'm afraid that we're not expecting any, you know, silver bullet to be taken at the moment. In fact, we think that central government is most likely going to stay still while encouraging local governments to help more with about ensuring the Circumstances unfortunately I think the best that we can expect is probably
So and there's such circumstances unfortunately I think the best that we can expect is probably the ongoing construction of residential properties in picking up the pays a little bit in the near term
May
DATE
not necessarily see too much improvement and therefore we are hoping that there could be more top down measures coming from the central government and hopefully we can see a little bit of improvement you know with with more confidence coming back After the the completion of the
CPC
ORG
so that we can have a better picture that may include for example they establishment of a stabilization fund. Why why do you think that is? Why do you think we haven't seen more forceful measures from the central government? I think that's a key new ones here Well I think the central government is still very much you know holding on to the idea that of housing is for residential purposes not for speculative purposes it's called This has been in place since
2016
DATE
and president
Xi
PERSON
has been sticking to this particular you know principal for a very long time. So even at a time when you are looking at the the property market you know Doesn't mean that they could do more from the central government Perspective in our view they should and they could but at the moment we still have seen there a little
Helen
PERSON
as always thank you so much for your time and making your way of course here to our studios
Helen Chow
PERSON
they're out of both a global research there And yeah
Yvonne
PERSON
for our viewers and clients of course. Yeah T life is on fire here
this morning
TIME
on the back of that data that
MLI
ORG
all that that just happened in the last hour or so here also quoting
Helen Chow
PERSON
already about her her reaction to this data quote not exactly pretty according to
Helen
PERSON
We'll get a little bit more of that analysis and we're extra editors throughout
the day
DATE
as well. We're also hearing more from the the statistics bureau. In that press conference Yeah. Now, here we go. Breaking news, not really breaking news. We've been tracking this but your
ten-year
DATE
bond yield has just been going through the floor in
China
GPE
. We're down
five
CARDINAL
,
six
CARDINAL
basis, points, lowest level, now since
May 2020
DATE
on that one, we started out north of
two
CARDINAL
. Seven%. We've now clear that last I checked
268
CARDINAL
. There we go,
268
CARDINAL
. Send down
five six
CARDINAL
basis not really a big surprise given a weakness and a date and of course that mood that they did on benchmark lending rates least some of it of course in money market rates. Alright, let's get it over and out of
Vonnie Quinn
PERSON
. She is in
New York
GPE
. She has your
first
ORDINAL
news. Ronnie. David, thank you.
Two
CARDINAL
. Two% below the economists median forecast of
two
CARDINAL
. Six% consumers spending which counts for
more than half
CARDINAL
of
Japan
GPE
's economic output led the growth
Porter
PERSON
GDP was revised to an expansion from a prior contraction. A
US
GPE
congressional delegation led by Senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit. They are meeting with
Taiwanese
NORP
president saying when the other lawmakers according to
the American Institution Taiwan
ORG
discussions include local James and climate change Recent visit to the region.
Chinese
NORP
officials have signaled
a thousands
CARDINAL
of tourists trapped in hotels on High Nan could soon return home. Over COVID lockdowns on the resort island sparked protests over
the weekend
DATE
. Travelers can only fly out if there are no new cases and there are
two
CARDINAL
groups and hotels within
the last 7 days
DATE
. Sign up pack in
China
GPE
life insurance are among a group of
Chinese
NORP
giants to exit from
US
GPE
exchanges
five
CARDINAL
of
China
GPE
's largest state owned firms announced their intention to deal list on
Friday
DATE
that says the spot over audits continue Access to
American
NORP
auditors Us capital police say a man crashed his car into a barricade and fired it onto the air several times before fatally shooting himself.
Us
GPE
capital police say a man crashed his car into a barricade and fired it onto the air several times before fatally shooting himself. Say
the 29 year old
DATE
man may have said fire to his own car. I'm just being approached by officers when he shot himself. It's still not care why he chose to drive to the capital area according to the police. It doesn't appear the man was targeting any members of
congress
ORG
Salman Rashti
PERSON
is starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed at a lecture in
New York
GPE
. The
AP
ORG
is quoted his agent saying the author is now on the road to recovery.
Rushy
ORG
has said to have been removed from a ventilator
Sunday
DATE
and is able to talk and joke. The author of the Satanic versus suffer Injuries on
Friday
DATE
afternoon
TIME
Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg Quicktake
PERSON
powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and I lost them with a
120
CARDINAL
countries. I'm
Yvonne
PERSON
.
Alright Manny
PERSON
just a recapping of course a day that we got here it was definitely alarming that's what A is that calls this set of data that we saw in
July
DATE
perhaps why we are actually seeing so much action
this morning
TIME
when PBOC we're seeing a lot of pressure on the
Beijing
GPE
of
the China Statistics Bureau
ORG
now talking a little bit more about this in terms of their statement that they're reading out here right now they mentioned about momentum of the recovery is there but we must be aware the stackation risks of the world economy are increasing and the foundation for the recovery of dome Economy is yet to be consolidated.
Dave
PERSON
, your thoughts. Yeah, I mean over
the last few minutes
TIME
, well, we've been seeing that the equity markets have turned lower now and yeah, that is an issue on that
China
GPE
cannot control, right? What they can't control to a large extent is domestic demand and if external demand starts
the weekend
DATE
, that becomes really a big problem. In fact, we'll talk more about the outlook here for external demand bluesco Reported record earnings earlier on there's will be joining us in fact in
a couple of minutes
TIME
we'll talk to him about that in his outlook and if they're seeing any signs of external demand falling that's next this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. While
Tesla
ORG
's in the like make for good headlines the reality is that even if every car on the roads
today
DATE
when electric it wouldn't be enough to curb global emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation account for
about 29%
PERCENT
of total
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. So what about the other
71%
PERCENT
? Buildings across America burn fossil To give us the energy electricity we need we wanna do
100%
PERCENT
clean energy Vehicle is all electric with no fossil fuels. We wanna do that with our buildings and if we can do it in
one
CARDINAL
building, we can do it in all building And if we do it in all buildings we'll reduce
30%
PERCENT
of
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. Cryptocurrency Hey Facebook Bloomberg. Hey Facebook
Hey Hey Facebook Welcome back to the show let's talk earnings and blue scopes steel hair record result massive jump in the net number there we go on your screens top end at bottom line really so it's it was a very good year here
Yvonne
PERSON
. Yup, adding to share. Buy back efforts as well. Let's talk more about that with
Mark Vasella
PERSON
,
Bluescope Steels
GPE
, managing director at CEO joining us now. Apply from
Melbourne
GPE
. Mark, thanks so much for joining us. Yes, they'll
Defy
PERSON
all that and deliver these record profits. Tell us how. Yeah look I'm in a really strong result for blue scope the best result that we've had in
our 20 years
DATE
is a listed company what we've seen across our our
Footprint
PERSON
has been really quite strong demand. We saw the run up and still prices particularly in the
US
GPE
in
the last 12 months
DATE
. The the cost position that we have our business in we're very focused on making sure we keep our costs low as put us in a position where we've been able to take advantage of those macro tail winds and that's really what's what's driven this record result for And having said that though I mean we talk about the headwinds obviously there's been supply chain issues through the impact of COVID-19 rising labor input costs as well I wonder what what is the outlook mean for you then is it still as optimistic and you continue on with with these sort of Gains here or you know is this as good as it gets for blue scope? Well I think certainly we're forecasting the outlook for
the first half of the second year
DATE
to be not at the levels we're at and that's largely driven by pricing What we saw over
the last 12 months
DATE
with hot roll cool prizes prices almost reaching
2000 US dollars
MONEY
a ton was an extraordinary level of pricing that's a level of pricing that We won't expecting or or requiring at the state that level we were certainly in a position to take advantage of that pricings now back
around 800 Us dollars
MONEY
are ton. That's still a very healthy price in terms of the long run average which is
more like $600
MONEY
a ton. So we've got into an
eight
CARDINAL
to
900 1 million dollars
MONEY
Ebert for
the first half
DATE
of
the new financial year
DATE
which in Local terms if you weren't looking at it immediately after the record result we just posted is still a very healthy result for bluescope. Hmm. Mark your guidance as far as cash flow is concerned given the catfish that you have announced in your in your press release here. Tell us a little bit more about, you know, the seeds you're planting for the future. Yeah, it's very good question. I mean, we think we think about certainly the cash regenerated
this year
DATE
. $
One
MONEY
.
7 billion
CARDINAL
on the back of those very high prices as I mentioned earlier We think carefully about how we allocate our capital our cash so we have a range of capital projects that we're focused on the blast furnace reline and a new metal coating line in We made an acquisition in the
US
GPE
just before the close of
the financial year
DATE
for a coding business and of course the money that we spend on on the expansion of our
North Star
LOC
facility our mini mill in
North America
LOC
so we think carefully about
Profile
ORG
of projects that we have internally this money that's required to be spent for us to continue to decarbonize our business and meet the ever increasing targets around greenhouse gas emissions and then we also think about the cash that we generate in terms of To shareholders in our board have enough confidence in in the business model and the outlook that we've announced
ยข25 Final
ORG
dividend and also an up to
500 1 million dollars
MONEY
buyback so we're very mindful of what's happening in the market internal opportunities but also returns to shareholders
Mark
PERSON
I know you don't have really a big sort of exposure to the
Chinese
NORP
economy A general sort of rule but certainly what happens there affects certainly the industry. What received as far as the weakness in the economy? Where do you think that puts the outlook for the entire industry? Oh
China
GPE
has AA significant
The weakness in the economy where do you think that puts the outlook for the entire industry? Oh
China
GPE
has AA significant impact in terms of the
Asian
NORP
markets in particular so we watch that very closely I think the signals that have come out of
China
GPE
in
the last few years
DATE
around their challenge to meet carp decarbonization reducing them out of ex Rather than bringing in high cost imports and then selling product is low cost exports I think that's been fundamentally structurally good for the steel industry in the
Asian
NORP
region so we watch that data quite closely And you mentioned a lot about sustainable steel making to
Mark
PERSON
and I wondered do you accept that when it comes to the long term that hydrogen will will basically replace Call eventually in the steel making process and how long is that gonna that transition going to take? This is an enormous challenge for the steel industry. This is not just a blue scope problem by any stretch of the imagination. This is a global steal industry problem. There's not technology that's currently technically or Revival that sees us in a position where we can decarbonize what we're incredibly optimistic about the opportunities that hydrogen provides but I'm also mindful and I I don't wanna sound like a naysayer I'm also mindful that there is just some time and a massive Man of investment that's gonna be required to get us to a position where we haven't ecosystem around hydrogen we have enough renewable energy we have the raw materials that are required for us to decarbonize our industry we're we're a hard to a bait industry there's not a technical solution that's available at this stage but we're Working very hard on it and it blue scope we've made a significant commitment both in terms of people resources and capital to head down that decarbonization path my view is I think we're
at least 10 years
DATE
away from the hydrogen ecosystem being in a position where it can have a material impact on the steel industry. Mark just one of the other things too that's been hounding the industry not just yours pretty much virtually every industry out there it's just these supply constraints I would say supply chains apply constraints you know entered the energy In
Europe
LOC
as far as inflationary pressures to your business. What are you seeing and what do you think persists? There's no doubt there's some inflation re pressures. We're seeing that in labor across our footprint we're seeing it in some consumables. We're seeing it in fright. Our businesses have been heavily disrupted over
the last 12 months
DATE
with
Restrictions
ORG
around employees not coming to work. Our customers, restrictions around their people being in isolation. So, there's no doubt Send an impact in our business from an inflation reprospective over
the last 12 months
DATE
. The supply chains have remained very tight. That's manifested itself in better pricing. So some of that inflation reimpact has been offset by our ability to
Us
GPE
that through in price increases. Mark great to talking to you. Thanks so much for joining us
Martha
PERSON
. Blue
Scope Steels
PERSON
, CEO. We got plenty more head. This is
Bloom The Indian city of Jamnigar
WORK_OF_ART
is a money making machine for
Asia
LOC
's richest man,
Mukesh Ambani
PERSON
. His company reliance has the world's biggest oil refinery complex here in the city.
Jamnagar
ORG
is also wearing is making his newest
His company reliance has the world's biggest oil refinery complex here in the city. Jamniga is also where
Ambani
PERSON
is making his newest bet A
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
investment in green energy. His ambition is closely aligned with the
Indian
NORP
government's plan to reach net oh emissions by
2070
DATE
. But
Barney
PERSON
is not alone.
India
GPE
's
second
ORDINAL
richest man
Galta Madani
PERSON
has committed
20 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of investment over
the next decade
DATE
. But
India
GPE
's massive dependencies on fossil fuels have some environmental applicants questioning the realism and sincerity of those green ambitions and those of its
two
CARDINAL
biggest billionaires. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving. Coverage starts
August 25
DATE
only on
Bloomberg Delevation and Radio
ORG
. Alright, here's the trading day that we've had so far. I think this really sums it up for you. The, we started out week in
China
GPE
, you had a rape cut, we went up, you had a missed, we went down, and this ongoing press conference of course Of
the National Beers Statistics
ORG
. We'll get to that later on. She has your
first
ORDINAL
word news. David thank you the world's largest fund managers including
Black Rock
LOC
and State St are reportedly cutting pay and taking other steps to rain in costs The financial time says
Black Rock
LOC
plans to postpone hiring for more senior roles while state streets pay an employee benefits dropped by
15%
PERCENT
last quarter
DATE
the plans come as customers with raw assets and stay on the sidelines in the mid market volatility
Wells Fargo
ORG
is coming to shrink its vast mortgage empire which once chairing down
one
CARDINAL
of every
three
CARDINAL
US
GPE
home loans sources say the bank's leadership may begin the retreat by reviewing ties to outside mortgage firms they generated
roughly one third
CARDINAL
of its
205 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in new home loans
last year
DATE
The strategy shift follows changes in the executive branch and
years
DATE
of costly regulatories with me. Following a sharp rally in
recent weeks
DATE
According to a regulatory filing for soil system investment firm bolstered its stakes in
Amazon
ORG
sales force and alphabet the fund also added a new
20 1 million dollars
MONEY
position in Tesla the billionaire for launch over the last one firm manage
more than 28 1 billion dollars
QUANTITY
as of the start of
2020
DATE
Alright Bonnie
PERSON
thank you so much let's take a look at what it comes to movers here
this morning
TIME
as we talked about the website that were sent across
Chinese
NORP
equities here's what we're looking when it comes to these SOEs as well after announcing on
Friday
DATE
that they will be delisting from the
US
GPE
the likes of
Chalico
GPE
try to life side effect to
China
GPE
as All falling
this morning
TIME
more than
two%
ORG
losses here at yes there is a sense that this is probably bad for sentiment day but in terms of turnover and some of these
US
GPE
listed stocks not too not too big. Yeah virtually here already this part of the world right
I've always been a person who's just been attracted to hair. To see and think and theorize how I can manifest these visions that I have for braiding and how I can take something that
Macy
ORG
might Line drawing in my mind and apply that to someone's scalp We are the only culture that has here that grows out of our head the way that it Anyone from the
African
NORP
diaspora is born with this amazingly curly hair that can be shaped into a variety of different ways of expression I want black people to love themselves for how they naturally appear and also to appreciate the cultural practices such as writing that our ancestors have practice For
centuries
DATE
. It's a great question. Great question. It's
11:29 AM
TIME
: in
Tokyo
GPE
. Happy
Monday
DATE
to our
Japanese
NORP
markets heading to that lunch break as well. We did get those GDP numbers that came out
early this morning
TIME
. It grows returning back to those pre-pandemic Day but it's the pace of it has been actually quite slow as well and it didn't miss forecast but nevertheless we see some decent gains on
the day
DATE
here
this morning
TIME
. Yeah I were all to back I mean use the word back there in terms of where the
Nikki
GPE
is the topic is slightly behind but when you chart that on
a year
DATE
today it's and you normalize it we're basically at
the start of the year
DATE
so yeah we are now flat a little bit higher than
the year
DATE
in the NK still slightly lower in on the topics but really indicative of the trend in this Performance you see against the other benchmark to see there on your screen send that takes us into this sort of day which will be seen from
Japan
GPE
and also
this week
DATE
ahead the month. Yeah we have inflation number
Japan
GPE
coming out later on
this week
DATE
as well in terms of what else we're watching out for beyond just
Japan
GPE
and the data dump that we just got out of
China
GPE
I certainly has been a It's gonna continue on here. That decision we have
BSP
ORG
decision on
Wednesday
DATE
and
Thursday
DATE
as well all the jobs there but certainly I think fed
minutes
TIME
is probably the most big in terms of event risk out there I skip to Sport news we got Money
Quinn
PERSON
in
New York
GPE
hey
Bonnie
PERSON
hey
Yvonne
PERSON
thank you water levels at a key way point on the wine river expected to study at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
as a climate crisis adds to yours energy crunch many barges can transit Margaret Caleb which is West of
Frankfort
LOC
. When the water level is about
40 cm
QUANTITY
or below. It's currently at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
. The
Ryan
PERSON
is western
Europe
LOC
. It's the most important river for transporting fuel and other goods. The chair of
the US House Intelligence Committee
ORG
Adam Schiff
PERSON
says he hasn't seen any evidence that materials the
FBI
ORG
seized from
Donald Trump's
PERSON
home were properly decasified
Trump
ORG
said
Friday
DATE
that everything taken was declared or covered by executive undertone privilege chefs says that argument is Assessment of the seas records.
Us capital police
ORG
say a man crashed his car into a barricade and fired it gone into the air several times before fadely shooting himself Police say the 29 year old man may have said fire to his own car and was being approached by officers when he shot himself it's still not clear why he chose to drive
Shooting himself. The
29 year old
DATE
man. May have said fire to his own car and was being approached by officers when he shot himself. It's still not clear why he chose to drive to the capital area. According to the police it doesn't appear the man was targeting any members of
Congress
ORG
.
Trivia
GPE
is reporting in from Wall St and beyond for
Andrew Jane
PERSON
they can't call CEO Death at the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after he had a
5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. He has been credited with building joy to buying some investment, banking business, and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
we take power boom within
2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysis and we're the
120
CARDINAL
countries I'm
Bonnie Quinn
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg David Ronnie
PERSON
, thank you, some GDP numbers, and
two
CARDINAL
Q numbers and just really adding, I guess
Yvonne
PERSON
to this really been a bad set of numbers
today
DATE
here. Also, a miss Hi, lad.
Two and a half percent
DATE
the estimate was
three
CARDINAL
. One. Obviously missing the median and not so much of course. Where you are on the bottom line but yeah, by the way, the set index is still close
today
DATE
. So, let's not show that. But there we go. GDP numbers and little bit of strength. Well, weakness in the currency.
One
CARDINAL
of the best performing currency stud
this year
DATE
. Yup, it will continue to watch of course the
China
GPE
story now that we are seeing more lines crossing here from
the statistics bureau
ORG
pressor and they're they're basically saying And the services industry slowed in
July
DATE
that's kind of an understatement right given the mist that we saw when it comes to retail sales employment pressure persists overall they're saying young people still under pressure when it comes to finding jobs as well those are the latest lines after what has been a ugly ugly set of numbers yes The the market was pretty optimistic about the the stimulus measures that the cuts that we saw from the PVOC and the
MLF
ORG
but then again once that data dropped things differently are turning a little bit more to the red now let's bring in our executive editor for
Asian
NORP
markets
Paul Dobson Paul
PERSON
your take on on all things trying to hear
today
DATE
first
ORDINAL
the data and then what we saw before that too
Bit
PERSON
with the
MLF
ORG
. Yeah, yeah, all looking pretty, pretty awful out there, right? Pretty bleak. I think it started on
Friday
DATE
with landing days, it was such a big mess, so much worse than people were expecting and it just goes to show You know there's plenty of liquidity out there in the market. But unfortunately people aren't taking it. The people that you know kind of need the money that could use the money. Don't really want it. Don't really see any useful ways of of putting that cash to good use for the economy. And the people that can't get it all the developers for example you know but it's still shut out We seen today with the
MLF
ORG
but you know kind of really getting that money flowing through the economy again is gonna take a lot more gonna take something that really gives people confidence back and when you've got the oh COVID policy when you've got the the crack down on the property market as well it's really hard to You know kind of the the the Going again and and to get people sort of Increasing the wheels of the economy. Yeah I I love how you put that Paul and let me just I guess take a bigger step back and you know we have the fed minutes coming out the data so far we just talked about
Thailand
GPE
Japan
GPE
GDP we know what's happening with the
US
GPE
we know where
Europe
LOC
is and now
China
GPE
's telling us they're not recovering as quickly is this a reality check right now for asset allocators that the world is Gonna be as blissful
These next few months
DATE
. Oh well I mean I think that we've seen it coming already in the
US
GPE
right we've seen that slowdown we know that there's a lot of inventory stock we've we've seen the the big Is talking about you know kind of they're outlooking a lot of groomers so we already saw from the demand side that there is this slowdown coming they're starting to to hit
China
GPE
starting to hit our part of the world you know the economy the the data has been looking strong so far probably because of the backlog that you Second half of the year and particularly fourth quarter when everything seems to be coming together in more of that kind of a crunch right so I I guess you know kind of maybe it's just that extent of how
Slow
ORG
things are how how precarious they are inside
China
GPE
is there is the thing that's new here? Hmm.
Paul
PERSON
thank you
Paul Dolphin
PERSON
.
Oh how percarious they are inside
China
GPE
is there is the thing that's new here? Hmm.
Paul
PERSON
thank you
Paul Dolphin
PERSON
there are executive editor for
Asian
NORP
markets just giving us just a flavor of just the pulse that we're seeing here across these markets certainly has been a volatile session in
China
GPE
here
today
DATE
let's check oil prices here in the meantime was obviously we've been talking about those
Ramco
NORP
earnings that were certainly Quite quite optimistic here and traitors are basically trying to weigh a whole mix of bearish and bullish headlines taking a brand or
just below 98 bucks
MONEY
here right now
New York
GPE
crudes are just below 92 bucks there's a possibly
Iran
GPE
could be putting oil back on the market as well as bringing zucchini and joining us for more so
Sue
PERSON
walk us through what are some of the big drivers Of crude here now. Why it's been a real mix News. Even though oil did post games for
the week One
DATE
of the big drivers are
Ron
PERSON
said that it could accept the
European Union
ORG
broker agreement on the nuclear issue if it receives certain guarantees so that Put more oil from around on the market. Big Also a big topic that could ease the pace of the Across the board impact the options that we're seeing right now are are very interesting in terms of what that could mean going forward very quickly with dropping to the
Bloomberg
PERSON
because another This is a chart of inflation which is that white line on top and blue which is gasoline which $
Four
MONEY
at the retail level for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
March
DATE
last Secretary said
US
GPE
gas prices should call further and this is offering actually political relief for the
Biden
PERSON
White House which has been pushing to get Energy prices at least gasoline price is lower. Commodities in
2 years
DATE
which indic Long term professionals that I've spoken to and others say it's very difficult to call the direction of oil going forward from here given that mix of And from Aramco Sue did we hear anything from the company as far as their plans and topics for example because I would imagine what they do affects I guess part of the narrative here. Yeah, Thinking of expanding their seeing demand for
the next decade
DATE
growing which is contrary to some of the project
One 1 billion
MONEY
in profit broke all of their own records in fact it's Biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit for any publicly traded company in the world at this point are free cash flows by
some 53%
PERCENT
using the windfall as mentioned to pay down debt and to expand other Capacity. Most of the world is moving Hey Even though there's downward economic pressure on short-term Global forecast and as you know we've seen other oil companies like
Axon
ORG
like
shell post record second quarter
ORG
earnings nothing on the level Perhaps in the rear view mirror for a lot of these big oil companies for the reasons we just mentioned the And
West Texas
LOC
interme So thanks for getting there. We're checking the bot on the back of those GDP numbers that did disappoint quite a bit and we are seeing some downs that would comes to the currency here
this morning
TIME
. Just weakening
about half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
or more. I think we're hovering on the
35
DATE
,
51
DATE
, or
49
DATE
now. Levels here for the type of
I think it's one of the best
Currencies
ORG
out there in
Asia
LOC
obviously the tourism factor a lot of people returning to
Thailand
GPE
that's helping the currency as well you have a narrowing current account deficit those those drop in oil prices as you mentioned certainly helping the currency as well so wondering if it's just a blip or not today
Dave
PERSON
we'll Yeah, I mean, it's certainly excuse to take some money off the table, right? Given that this has been bit up substantially
this month
DATE
. In fact,
Thailand
GPE
will be part of our next conversation here and we'll we'll dig deeper into
Southeast Asia
LOC
and private capital and really where a lot of these funds are deploying their money with global private capital association CEO
Ka Bros
ORG
will be joining us of course to talk us through Activity remains strong where they're putting their money on is a big place. It's also a bunch of many places so we'll look at the new ones here. That's up next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. When
US
GPE
inflation numbers are released. Terminal speed. Analysis. Over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear. It wants to go higher. It got a little spooked by the idea that due political potentials are rising. Hey it's the time of
the week
DATE
where we focusing on
Yeah Southeast Asia
LOC
here's a look at markets there it has been a challenging time of course in Fundraising does remain strong though
Yvonne
PERSON
for the region. Yeah I certainly hasn't when it comes to
Southeast Asia
LOC
I just take a look at the numbers that global private capital association has been crunching up and basically we have seen investment in
Southeast Asia
LOC
rise
39%
PERCENT
in
the first half of this year
DATE
and that's one of the highest Or your figures second only to
Latin America
LOC
on the flip side that you do see
China
GPE
as well you're on your change down
close to 40%
PERCENT
this is all this and more okay Ambrose CEO and board member of the global private capital association
Kate
PERSON
thanks so much for joining us why do you think private capital can actually thrive in
Southeast Asia
LOC
what's really driving these Well, I mean, I just sharpened the the starting place. There's extraordinary global liquidity in the world
today
DATE
. I mean, they're over one. 30 billion was raised for private capital strategies around the world and in
2021
DATE
. It's a lot of money to put to work and
Southeast Asia
LOC
has been rising as a destination Global investors big private equity firms opening offices and expanding their presence in
Southeast Asia
LOC
as well as a thriving local ecosystem driven by
Singapore
GPE
's You know
Paul
PERSON
is and and push to become a global financial center and and roll the government with a number of programs there. So so we definitely seen rising interest as you indicated in the numbers.
And push to become a global financial center and and roll the government with a number of programs there. So so we definitely seen rising interest as you indicated in the numbers It's been interesting to see what's happening in
2022
DATE
with a slow down in
China
GPE
Some of the more developed markets for venture and and private equity but actually a very significant increase in
Southeast Asia
LOC
that and that period You mentioned about maybe some more funds turning to
Southeast Asia
LOC
. I wonder are we seeing more of these kind of private market funds? Really kind of leaning towards this region or or do you think it's just Investors that are just basically writing bigger checks now. Don't y'all are industries definitely built around you know both big global players, general
Atlantic
GPE
,
KKR
ORG
,
Warper Pinkus
PERSON
, we've all had offices in
Singapore
GPE
for some time and it been extending investments
Singapore
GPE
in
June
DATE
and met with
about a half a dozen
CARDINAL
new venture managers that have been active over the course
the last couple of years
DATE
and it almost all been seat Bye. Then you've got to run
GIC
ORG
also is an active industrial
second
ORDINAL
particular and seating local fund and really building the local ecosystem Disability that
Singapore
GPE
provides in terms of that you know that the stability that political system is something that's very attractive to global investors they're looking for certain DM markets there was a period of time
China
GPE
had a certain kind of certainty that seemed to work and was obviously an enormous market. I think
today
DATE
by comparison what you see in
Singapore
GPE
is is very attractive to global investors setting up offices there. We actually opened our own office and
Singapore
GPE
and have a Before there because we noticed that
almost half
CARDINAL
of our member firms had offices in
Singapore
GPE
. Now okay talk to us then about we had a guest
last week
DATE
and you know we were talking about private market valuations and well at least in in their view
last week
DATE
that we haven't seen or yet to see our we don't know if it's gonna come down around as far as valuation so What are you seeing as far as you and I guess some of your members Yeah. Arguably quite inflated there was a lot of room to take some hot air out of out of those valuations Typically in markets like
Asia
LOC
and in in
Margaret
PERSON
's like
India
GPE
or
Latin America
LOC
less of
China Southeast Asia
LOC
they're just much more it's much more difficult or start up to raise capital in the
first
ORDINAL
place that's much more difficult there As much money available and so evaluations were typically not as outside to begin with. Typically, entrepreneurs and adventure space have to do more with less. They are not used to having access to you know, these enormous rounds with really high valuations and so there's just a greater discipline. They're not so much. I'm Listing now Earlier stage startups that have a really attractive growth rejectory over the course of the
next 510
DATE
, 20 Now, kid, I wanna bring in the
China
GPE
part to the equation, not so much to look at.
China
GPE
, but certainly given the weakness in the economy there and the recovery obviously that's, you know, taking a little bit more time than expected How much do you think Of the weakness in
China
GPE
is actually benefited You know just interested in the tension and just general focus on
Southeast Asia
LOC
. Well, of course, so much of the money that is going into
Southeast Asia
LOC
actually comes from
China
GPE
and the
first
ORDINAL
place, ยข10 are Other Big
Chinese
NORP
corporate tech companies were already expanding into
Southeast Asia
LOC
and participating around investment rounds
three, 4 years ago
DATE
. So, the
Chinese
NORP
money has been very relevant in that in that part of the world. That said, Now, there is this concern particularly from
US
GPE
institutional investors. I think there is
And very relevant in that in that part of the world. That said, Now there is this concern particularly from
US
GPE
institutional investors. I think there is a concern around
China
GPE
. There's no question that there is at best that's called a pause on committing new capital to only the best
Chinese
NORP
managers only the safest hands are gonna be trusted
today
DATE
for for investing into
China
GPE
and so there's an
India
GPE
has been a big benefactor of that trend. We definitely seems significant towards towards
India
GPE
as
one
CARDINAL
large economy where the young demographics over
one 1 billion
QUANTITY
population because scales are so important for our industry but
Southeast Asia
LOC
has also really been benefiting that as well with again a
Chinese
NORP
money going in. Again, I was saying, I was in
Singapore
GPE
in
June
DATE
and the number of individual high network, individuals,
Chinese
NORP
family offices,
Chinese
NORP
corporates, and
Chinese
NORP
funds expanding into
Southeast Asia
LOC
was really dramatic. I just mentioned this last piece
Sequoia
ORG
raised an
850 1 billion
MONEY
Southeast Asia Fund
just earlier this year
DATE
drove a record two. 6 billion for for fundraising for
Southeast Asian
NORP
the first half of this year
DATE
and and that was you know again a vote on a team basically coming out of
China
GPE
expanding it to
Southeast Asian
NORP
perhaps square Okay, thanks so much for your insights. Great research there,
Kate Ambrose
PERSON
from
the Google Product Capital Association
ORG
. We got plenty more ahead. This is
Bloom
NORP
When
US
GPE
jobs numbers are released Power pivot. Not with numbers like hey
Push
PERSON
back. Wrong. We've had sort of a shift in are we in some sort of People are talking about that
all day
DATE
yesterday
DATE
. Alright here your
FX
ORG
movers here
today
DATE
a dollar bit firmer here
this morning
TIME
we are still seeing some strike across the
Japanese
NORP
currency though
133 for dollar yen
MONEY
and the Aussie seeing a bit of downside here the
Thai
NORP
bot certainly is a story
today
DATE
given the weakness we've seen also Hey
Yvonne
PERSON
thank you bluescope steel has report Line full of profit of
one
CARDINAL
.
9 billion US dollars
MONEY
even the average analyst estimate revenue of
13
CARDINAL
and a half one
1 billion
CARDINAL
was up
48%
PERCENT
on the year
Luscope
PERSON
saw continued strong demand for steel products despite recent volatility the board approved of my back increase of
up to 250
CARDINAL
Over
the next 12 months
DATE
. So your uncle was supposed to the biggest
quarterly
DATE
popular that I need us to company anywhere net income rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter
DATE
of from
25 and a half
DATE
one 1 billion
a year earlier
DATE
see you I'm in
Nassau
GPE
says the company expects oil demand to continue
Come rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter of
DATE
25 and a half
DATE
one 1 billion
a year earlier
DATE
. The company expects oil demand to continue growing for the rest of
the decade
DATE
. Hi cool prices and production.
Chinese
NORP
developer a long
four
CARDINAL
group who said to be receiving a
447 1 million dollars
MONEY
syndicated loan which would potentially alleviate market concern about its liquidity. That's always says the company has reached an agreement to sign a contract for the loan with state owned and foreign banks as early as
this week
DATE
and there's your latest
Bloomberg
PERSON
business last headlines. Yeah speaking of long
four
CARDINAL
we have been longing for any tangible and obvious signs of a turn around in this
Chinese
NORP
economy and certainly we were hoping that this data was data said was it
Yvonne
PERSON
and no we didn't really get it and certainly markets are reacting to all this data and also what the PBOC did Yeah, it's interesting, right? We were thinking that there was gonna be a rebalance or a look a little bit better but then again, yeah, as
Helen Chow
LOC
did mention from
Bank of America
ORG
, that
10
CARDINAL
basis point policy cut. Just showing that they care but does it really do much Boosting household consumption landing the light here unlikely it seems but certainly the bad news here adding to a lot more of the headlines that we're seeing across these markets see aside
300
CARDINAL
still in the red the rest of the region though still looking pretty good here you see that okay up some one%
Dave Yeah
PERSON
and all ahead of some key opens I think
Thailand
GPE
opens up
the next hour
TIME
I think
India
GPE
is closed it's a GDP numbers out there when you wanna pay attention to is that rally in the
Chinese
NORP
bod markets ages up a quarter one% today Hey, guys. Is the chance of humankind to really understand itself How much of that is true how confident did you actually overachieve did you you know back then realize that we would be using AI in many different jobs was it slower or faster than you thought at the time Think if I had a But I would have predicted steady linear increase over time but instead the field had Trajectory to this day we still know very little about how the brain works but this machines are getting ever more powerful I feel in some sense we did end up learning Then now we can rule out many many things because AI or machine learning has Key aspects of human intelligence. Is it possible the industries in
an hour
TIME
?
Is it possible the industries in an arms race that will Lead to spending itself into an over supply. I mean, that has happened before We we we've looked at this very carefully and yo, the digitalization of everything. Tell me what aspect of your life Emily isn't becoming more digital. To prevent that but yes. Has accelerated that. The industry cost
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last year
DATE
. The semi-conductor industry overall and estimate are a
one 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
. A doubling by
the end of the decade
DATE
. At that point, I believe those estimates. It's not that there Gonna be some blitz and turns on the way and the majority of that is driven by Process technology of which
only three
CARDINAL
companies can satisfy that need. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance
Bloomberg
PERSON
's covering all things crypto but people the transactions and the technology
Bloomberg
PERSON
crypto
Tuesdays
DATE
It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse It's almost 11 AM in
six
CARDINAL
point
Shanghai
GPE
. Welcome to Bloomberg Market
Asia
LOC
. I'm
Hus Linda
PERSON
. I'm in. And I mean if I met in
Hong Kong
GPE
here are top stories trying to recovery unexpectedly weakening in
July
DATE
as fresh COVID outbreaks way on consumer and business spending the gloomy picture prompting the PBOC to deliver a surprise interest rate cut Is
2022
DATE
losses plus
Saudi Aramco
ORG
post the biggest
quarterly
DATE
adjustive profit any listed company driven by higher group prices and production. Well, talk about volatility vaughn especially for
Chinese
NORP
stocks on the back of that data, dumb, disappointing, especially for retail sales that backs the question. How will it look for the
Chinese
NORP
economy in
the second half of the year
DATE
? It's gonna be tough. That also explains why we saw the moves on the PBOC Cutting
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
also that
7 day
DATE
rivers repo rate possibly to help booze growth contain inflation take a look Turn it up
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
GDP back to pre COVID levels though and we're still less than anticipated. Come on space. We're keeping a track on crude oil, red crude, currently down about
one%
ORG
. Of course, that demand from
China
GPE
will play into the mix there and in the barn market, we have heels falling This one in time. Yeah
Chinese 10 year
EVENT
yields as you see there with that bright green find some
six
CARDINAL
basis points and more really goes to show where this whole slowdown story people are starting to pricing here this mackerel reality that we're seeing that perhaps this
Chinese
NORP
recovery is gonna be pretty pretty choppy given what we saw with that
July
DATE
Did I take a look when it comes to
Thailand
GPE
though that just opening up that market just slightly lower we did get those miss when it comes to those GDP figures
four
CARDINAL
Thailand
GPE
a
Thai
NORP
bot is weakening on the back of that data but nevertheless it is still one of the best performing regional currencies here the
Thai
NORP
bot given what we've been seeing when it comes to tourism there narrowing the deficit Current account deficit falling oil prices. So, the
Thai
NORP
bot maybe what people just putting some profits off the table at least for now.
Indian
NORP
markets are closed if the future's those punching a bit higher though and the rest of
MSAP
GPE
were slightly higher here with a quarter
Just playing some profits off the table at least for now.
Indian
NORP
markets are closed. They've the futures those punching a bit higher though and the rest of
MSAP
GPE
were slightly higher here with of course
Hong Kong
GPE
,
China
GPE
, the exception though, and it's because of this. This data as
Anza
ORG
call it alarming. If you see how retail sales played out,
two
CARDINAL
. Seven% Well we are expecting close to five% gains when it comes to consumption stories. Basically across the board. This was a miss. Let's bring in our chief with
Asia
LOC
correspondence even angle. In
Hong Kong
GPE
with How markets are really digesting this news David and it's
Steve
PERSON
I should say end this data. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, across the board, it did not look very pretty but we were kind of This because of the momentum in the
Chinese
NORP
economy was expected to kind of peter off a bit after that pent up demand really drove some
June
DATE
numbers and also some export managers at some companies across
China
GPE
that News had surveyed had kinda indicated that export demand I was starting to Peter off a bit so we didn't expect it quite to be so bad on the retail sales front that shows domestic demand also is weak let's bring up the snapshot so we can see the actual number versus the estimate and use you can see most of Miss the estimates quite handly actually for the
July
DATE
industrial production Seeing at
three
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
was the actual number. So factory output growth momentum. Starting to slow a bit. Retail sales quite a big miss at
two
CARDINAL
. Seven%. We are expecting
four
CARDINAL
.
Nine
CARDINAL
. Fix acid urban investment. Also missed that's being bullied though by
Stimulus
ORG
coming from the government in roads railways, bridges, and the like property investment, not surprising, continue to go weaker. Now, some of the other numbers that we've been getting through the the press conference and some of the other data coming from authorities in
Beijing
GPE
that stood out to me. As we head up towards the party
congress
ORG
coming this autumn unemployment rate is very important they like to keep unemployment nationwide at
about five and a half percent
CARDINAL
or below it did come in below at
five
CARDINAL
. Four% the caviato is new or or use between ages
16 to 20
CARDINAL
A record high unemployment for youths. We have
more than 10
CARDINAL
.
7 million
CARDINAL
new students expected to enter the job market
this summer
DATE
. That also is a record high but we're at
19
CARDINAL
. Nine% youth Employment that's a concern for authorities
Steve
PERSON
that rather alarming a data points possibly explain why the PBOC made the rate cuts
today
DATE
on the back of credit data which is the lowest level
2017
DATE
on the back of course of that very weak housing data as well so Not looking pretty at all for the
second
ORDINAL
half Yeah none of the economists that serve it by boomberry expected the PBOC to do these rate cuts where we had the 7 day
MLF
ORG
loan raid down cut by
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
also the
7 day
DATE
reverse
Rate
ORG
cut down to
two%
ORG
from
two
CARDINAL
. One% maybe symbolic adjuster that the authorities do realize they need to stimulate growth because it's a liquidity trap in the making because there's tons of liquidity in the banks but nobody That's what we saw aggregate financing nobody wants to borrow I just say they want to land but aggregate financing and new loans was down but we do have
Helen Chow
LOC
from
Bank of America
ORG
have this to say about the rate cuts. Hey surprise interest record
this morning
TIME
seems to be suggesting policy makers are concerned and they want to make a gesture
10
CARDINAL
basis points is almost like not a big deal right it's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care Right so some dire words to from
Helen Shaw
PERSON
Steve I I wonder then you know given what we've been seeing in the consumption story and then what we're seeing in High Naan this is a big tourist place for many sort of local
Chinese
NORP
travelers as well not that they're going through some sort of Good picture when it comes to the consumption recovery there either. No that's right I mean the high non there's a province contributes about oh. Six% to nationwide GDP and oh. Five% of retail sales by
Very there. No, that's right. I mean, there's a province contributes about oh. Six% to nationwide GDP and oh. Five% of retail sales by by comparison of obviously, it's not a
Shanghai
GPE
, it's not a
Beijing
GPE
, it's not Urban area but it does point towards the services sector and in travel and if the risks are seen a quite great in places like Hainon more people will perhaps not travel I mean there's been a lot of anger in high not about being essentially locked up in their hotel For up to
a couple of weeks
DATE
. It started to dissipate right now. But again, we've already seen some protests in the property sector. So, if you have a further Upset in property and in the services sector tied to tourism you're gonna have a further dampening effect so we do need to watch what's happening in
Highland
GPE
people go there to have fun and relax not to be surrounded by hazmat suit And to be confined to their rooms.
Steven Ango
PERSON
, chief
North Asia
LOC
, correspondent, thank you so much for that. Let's get M Science perspective bringing
Oxford
NORP
economics, lead
Asia
LOC
, economist,
Sean Fana
PERSON
,
Sean
PERSON
, good to have you with us Kicked off
the third quarter
DATE
thinking
China
GPE
is off to a better
second
ORDINAL
half
CARDINAL
yet
today
DATE
's date I really alarming and we are real sales at
two
CARDINAL
point what
two
CARDINAL
point In real time that's a negative Probably the main concern I have looking at that data is exactly We didn't expect that we'd suddenly see root ourselves you know accelerate sharply we do think that there's gonna be ongoing caution particularly given that we have this dynamic oh COVID so we're saying you know constant testing and like but we didn't think we would be quite as weak as what we're having which is Put a lot of downside risks to the recovery for the
second
ORDINAL
half. How much does that change narrative for
Chinese
NORP
growth right now your own projection for
the year
DATE
is
three
CARDINAL
. Two% already the
three
CARDINAL
number there are you like it to revise a downwards I think I mean we do we've always thought that it's gonna be fairly bump I think I'd share I should make that clear that it is gonna be sort of bumpy growth over
the next second half
DATE
but given these
today
DATE
's figures I think there's you know a high risk that we're gonna actually have to slice more after we've had that obviously dismal queue
two
CARDINAL
outcome. Sean I have to wonder that what is going to be that silver bullet that the the circuit breaker that this economy needs right now and how can the police makers actually communicate in the way that it doesn't show it's an abrupt policy move? Yeah I'm in that that's exactly it I'm in the uncertainty and just when they're actually going to you know finish or actually change the wording and you know the mass testing around oh That's the key risk. So, you know, we're expecting it is gonna happen in, you know, beginning of
next year
DATE
, first half of next year. But if we keep seeing these sort of kind of lockdowns, not not to the same degrees what we saw was
Shanghai
GPE
. It definitely means that you know, sentiments gonna Name very weak. It becomes a self-sufficient policy. Infrastructure can't, you know, it's gonna do some of the heavy lifting. It will push up growth but it's not, it's gonna be a very lopsided recovery until we can remove this. What about the export boom that we've seen in
China
GPE
that really was probably
one
CARDINAL
of the silver linings and all this is that starting to fade now that we are starting to see the
US
GPE
and in the
EU
ORG
and and growth is deterring there. Yeah I mean absolutely I'm in the exports manufacturing was a key driver behind growth for
China
GPE
except for those sort of tailwinds are fading you know we've got the risks of the recession in the euro zone in the
US
GPE
we've also got Change of advanced economy spending, moving from goods towards services. So these are all external headwinds facing the
Chinese
NORP
economy. So we don't see that it being significant driver of growth going over
the next 18 months
DATE
. The extent of the slowdown in
China
GPE
's economy that moved by the PBOC today pretty minimal. Yes, absolutely. It's also tough
Point
NORP
in time I mean they've got a couple of sort of other things they're gonna face one they don't want to be seeing you know big deep appreciation or pressure or capital outflows so on their currency the other thing is is that you know you're not getting the demand so consumers you know they're avoiding you know increasing sort of near mortgages and they're like Sentiments probably gonna remain sort of fairly weak outside of those sort of key strategic sectors and climate change so you know it's it's not gonna be providing a significant boost at this point.
Yo Azian Sean
PERSON
has always been kind of that.
So you know it's it's not gonna be providing a significant boost at this point.
Yo Ozzy
PERSON
on Sean has always been kind of that buffer I feel like we've been talking about all this year can this sort of economic momentum continue when when the rest of the world seems to be slowing down now For the industrial production yeah I've been already think that for
IVI Southeast Asia Oh
LOC
, sorry. Sorry, I do apologize. For
Southeast Asia
LOC
. I mean,
Southeast Asia
LOC
does actually have a couple of buffers. So it has been very much export driven. But positively and we've seen this with quite a number of the Q
two
CARDINAL
figures that have come out. Is that we're starting That recovery in terms of domestic demand on the consumption side and you're coming through on the private private sector as well. It's really because we've had those reduction and restrictions with tourism picking up. So, we should actually still be out of, you know, this Change in growth from services from manufacturing to services should provide some support going forward and I've got
Sean
PERSON
it is
a big big week
DATE
for
Montre
PERSON
policy here in
Asia
LOC
RBNZ Philippine it's on a bank Are we expecting 50 from
RBNZ
ORG
and what
15
CARDINAL
from
the Philippines Bank
ORG
? We're actually looking at
50
DATE
for both of those. So we're probably gonna get
50
CARDINAL
from the
New Zealand
GPE
but I'm in obviously starting to see quite a sort of you know sort of recessionary risk there. So we're would be looking for some sort of more dogish tones out of the statement and the like for the
Philippines
GPE
I think it's quite Christine because if before we had the Q
two
CARDINAL
figures
last week
DATE
I think people were pretty comfortable with a
50
CARDINAL
basis rate hike give them the inflation obviously though if we actually look a little bit deeper into those Q
two
CARDINAL
figures you actually saw the consumers are really getting hurt by the home inflation to us that means that they That you probably continue inflation remains a near priority to you know prevent the household budgets being so constrained that we do expect another
50
CARDINAL
basis points hikes
this week
DATE
. Oh having to keep up with the fad it is expected to remain aggressive. Economics. Hey Hey how's
Linda
PERSON
? We'll start with a sign up and
China
GPE
life. They're among group
Chinese
NORP
companies set to deal list from
US
GPE
exchanges
five
CARDINAL
or
China
GPE
's largest state owned firms in fact.
Japan
GPE
's economy meanwhile recovered to its pre pandemic size in
the second quarter
DATE
with growth picking up after COVID card Relaxed. Economic output led the growth
First
ORDINAL
quarter GDP was revised to an expansion from the prior contraction. Landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit. They are meeting with
Taiwanese
NORP
President saying when and other lawmakers According to
the American Institute
ORG
in
Taiwan
GPE
discussions include global supply chains and climate change. The trip risks keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high after house speaker
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
recent visit to the region. While Anna was saying earlier sign up back in
China
GPE
life insurance among the group of
Chinese
NORP
giants to exit from
US
GPE
exchanges five as I was saying of
China
GPE
's largest state on firms announced their intention to do
this Friday
DATE
as the start over all its continues
about 200
CARDINAL
Chinese
NORP
firms are facing possible deal listing in the
US
GPE
As soon as
2024
CARDINAL
unless
Beijing
GPE
grants access to
American
NORP
auditors. Billionaire investor at Rockish has died. He was
62
DATE
. He was dubbed
India
GPE
's war in
Buffett
PERSON
due to his reputation for a long term equity investing and was among the most influential market voices in the nation. Started my shares with a loan of $
100
MONEY
and
1985
DATE
and along the way invested in some of
India
GPE
's most prominent names including its biggest jeweler,
Titan
GPE
, and
Airline
PERSON
startup a Casa Air. Global news
24 Day
DATE
on air and I'll remember a quick take power burn within
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and listen
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries. I'm
Bonnie Quin
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Yvonne
PERSON
. We'll still have
this hour
TIME
Saudi Aramco
ORG
expects oil demand to grow for the rest of
the decade
DATE
as profit soaring insights from San Francisco Bernstein which is seeing risks in
China
GPE
's continued COVID curves and sanctions against
Russia
GPE
but up next as well a close look at the currency markets following the PBOC surprise rate Economic data this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
Can I make data this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
While
Tesla
ORG
's in the like make for good headlines the reality is that even if every car on the roads
today
DATE
when electric it wouldn't be enough to curb global emissions to avoid catastrophic climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions from transportation account for
about 29%
PERCENT
of total
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. So what about the other
71%
PERCENT
? Buildings across America Instead of burning oil and gas to give us the energy and electricity we need we wanna do
100%
PERCENT
clean energy Vehicle is all electric with no fossil fuels. We wanna do that with our buildings and if we can do it in
one
CARDINAL
building, we can do it in all building And if we do it in all buildings we'll reduce
30%
PERCENT
of
US
GPE
greenhouse gas emissions. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving Welcome back to market markets
Asia
LOC
after
China
GPE
's And focus will it move Again chances are it will despite Race rate
75
CARDINAL
basis points and of course rate decisions Out of
Philippines
GPE
and
Australian
NORP
jobs that are coming out on
Thursday
DATE
followed by
Japan
GPE
's inflation on
Friday
DATE
Vaughn
ORG
is gonna be a packed pack Yeah, I think
the 5 minutes
TIME
are probably gonna be the biggest one in terms of market moving. The data dumps certainly
today
DATE
out of
China
GPE
is one to watch out for here
today
DATE
on the back of what we saw. The PBOC with that surprise rate cut for that
1 year
DATE
policy loans. Let's bring in our boomerang intelligence
FX
ORG
and rates, analyst,
Steven Chu
PERSON
, and
Saying
LOC
that
China
GPE
shooting up. Setting lower this was quite a bit of surprise to the market. Yeah I mean like let's talk about the rake itself like we do expect record to happen in the second half of the year now of course we do not expect it to happen
this month
DATE
without
China
GPE
I wanna observe a little Longer. Maybe preferably to see what the fat does next. So, probably
September
DATE
FOMC could be a good window for the PBOC to observe. So, the record
today
DATE
like certainly is probably earlier than we expected. Now,
Mark
PERSON
here could cite the weaker credit data
Weekend
DATE
,
the week
DATE
we're real activity data
today
DATE
. But we think that
The record
today
DATE
like certainly is probably earlier than we expected. Now Market could cite the weaker credit data over
the weekend
DATE
. The weaker real activity data
today
DATE
. But we think that actually that's the trend has been happening over the last few So it's probably not really just about the data but it's it's also because of like looking forward like
China
GPE
has really concerned that the economy will be facing more pressure especially ahead of the party
congress
ORG
in
November
DATE
so they're gonna have to do something So that's why we get the rate cut
today
DATE
Steven
PERSON
we have the Yuan currently down
about four tenths
CARDINAL
of one person what does it mean for the outlook to the current state? Now interestingly normally the end doesn't react a lot to policy monetary policy decision but then just so happen right now that you are under pressure even before the rate get now we know that you're intense job
Suddenly week
DATE
in
the third quarter the year
DATE
because of David and Alflow and of course over
the last 1 or 2 week
DATE
we have uncertainties over the cause strat even though now that's not a major watch from the market it's still a big risk for the market so so mark it would be concerned about that's gonna block further especially we saw more
US
GPE
Officials visiting
Taiwan
GPE
. So that's gonna be
one
CARDINAL
risk premium that's priced in the event. No hands now with the record going on being unexpected. The
UN
ORG
will be under pressure especially we'll under perform somewhat the
Asian
NORP
currencies for now. What about her bonds though? I think just last week we were talking about this
quarterly
DATE
monetary report from the PBOC. They were talking a little bit more hawkish and and worried about structural inflation. So people were probably a bit more cautious of bonds now. And then now you're seeing yields heading by
six
CARDINAL
spaces points I wonder is this is just a short squeeze how long could it last? Yeah I'm very interested that you mentioned about the coil report which state explicitly that they don't wanna splash the market with money they wanna preserve wanna trip plus a room and that's also the stance and in the recent rhetoric in order statements in official speeches so hence nobody expect them to cut this But it happens. Meaning that the data could be even more uglier than what we see right now. So going forward more pressure. So for rates it has to respond. Now words for the level. We think that you may still drop lower. Let's talk about
the 10 year
DATE
CD videos. Which usually evolve around
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
. So right now we have
10
CARDINAL
pieces on lower for when you
MOF
ORG
at
75
DATE
but for
10 years
DATE
we're at
268
CARDINAL
so of course like in the near term we're gonna see even more lower lower space for
the 10 year
DATE
CGBO
ORG
but whether it can really drop persistently lower depends on where the
China
GPE
cuts again. And we think that
China
GPE
like we wanna observe to see how the latest cut would do to the economy before coming again cuz otherwise it will anchor market expectation that it's you wanna cut very aggressively going forward and that's gonna hurt both the currents in also market expectations Thank you so much for that plenty more ahead as we
Disappointing
GPE
data This is bloom bag. The
Indian
NORP
city of Jamnigar is a money making machine for
Asia
LOC
's richest man
Mukesh Ambani
PERSON
. His company reliance has the world's biggest oil refinery complex here in the city.
Jamnagar
ORG
is also wearing bunny is making his newest bet A
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
investment in green energy. His ambition is closely aligned with the
Indian
NORP
government's plan to reach net oh emissions by
2070
DATE
. But.
Leon dollar investment in green energy. His ambition is closely aligned with the
Indian
NORP
government's plan to reach net oh emissions by
2070
DATE
. But
Barney
PERSON
is not alone.
India
GPE
's
second
ORDINAL
richest man
galta madani
PERSON
has committed
20 1 billion dollars
MONEY
of investment over
the next decade
DATE
. But
India
GPE
's massive dependencies on fossil fuels have some environmental applicants questioning the realism answerity of those green ambitions and those of its
two
CARDINAL
biggest billionaires. Why did the biggest names in business choose
Bloomberg
PERSON
? She's a great question. Great question. Great question. Let's do a quick check of the latest business flash headlines
Chinese
NORP
developer long for group is set to be receiving a
447 1 million dollars
MONEY
Liquidity Is reach an agreement to sign a contract for the loan with state owned and foreign banks as early as this week
Postpone
LOC
hiring for more senior roles while
State
ORG
Street's pay and employee benefits drop by
15%
PERCENT
last quarter
DATE
the plans come as customers with draw assets and stay on the sideline Empire They generated
roughly one third
CARDINAL
of its
205 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in new home loans
last year
DATE
the strategy shift follows changes in the executive rings and
years
DATE
of costly regulatories scrutiny
Sarah
PERSON
's phone management has increased his holding so big tax stocks falling a shop rally in
recent weeks
DATE
according to regular filing judges invest
Alphabet
ORG
also added a new
20 1 million dollars
MONEY
position in
Tesla Landropies Start
ORG
up
2022
DATE
. Alright, turn some movers here. We're watching some of these
US
GPE
listed
Chinese
NORP
stocks in particular, the SUEs, now start
Friday
DATE
that they will be deal listing from the
US
GPE
and these are some of the biggest drives that we are seeing on the HSI here
this morning
TIME
. The likes of
Chalico
GPE
,
Petro
GPE
,
China
GPE
,
Cydopec
GPE
,
China
GPE
, life as well, down more than
two%
ORG
or more For some of these stocks as well. A lot of questions of what will come next. What other companies might follow them as well. In terms of movers here or watching the likes of
Orient
LOC
overseas as a downgrade from
HSBC
ORG
, also top gloss, some of these glove makers continue to see some downfall here
today
DATE
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Watch
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition for the news you need when you need it.
Anna Edwards
PERSON
in
London
GPE
.
Australia Central Bank
ORG
. Can it sustain it's normal at a time when everybody else is facing a very different reality Be ahead of the game.
11:29 AM
TIME
: in
Shanghai
GPE
take a
Chinese
NORP
market heading into that lunch break right now and certainly we will need a bit of a break here just to digest all we see in
the last few hours
TIME
or so everything from rate cuts to pretty bad data that came out for
July
DATE
activity data while we see retail sales Across the board. We've been going kind of between games and losses here throughout the course of
this year
DATE
as we continue to look at what this means with
a third quarter
DATE
, this whole recovery Which has been choppy to say the least. So, you are seeing when it comes to
Shanghai
GPE
today
DATE
. Under performing the rest of the region. Still doing pretty decently well though the track next up. So,
one%
ORG
but take a dollar
China
GPE
,
675 91
DATE
has. Of course,
Chinese
NORP
stocks in a tailspin. We have
Nikki
GPE
By the way erasing all losses for
the year
DATE
it's GDP back to pre COVID levels even though
Lower
GPE
than expected. Of course, we're tracking the yen, gaining versus the USD renewed speculation. The
BOJ
ORG
may tweak its policy dollar Put the paycheck where we are in terms of commodities, oil, and particular The recent rally in oil prices help sodium Globally $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion Midi's
MONEY
correspondent
Simon Foxman
PERSON
's joins us now it was
a blockbuster quarter
DATE
. Yeah really hard to look past that enormous number that was also
90%
PERCENT
rise
year
DATE
on
year
DATE
in
second quarter
DATE
profits the company just seeing blockbuster returns no it's not Surprising and given we had oil prices at $
112
MONEY
per barrel on average
between April and June
DATE
and given where oils trading
today
DATE
has not necessarily likely to continue into
the next quarter
DATE
but from an investor The biggest question was likely the dividend and we saw shares fall in
Saudi
NORP
trading
yesterday
DATE
. Remember the
Saudi
NORP
market is open on
Sunday
DATE
. Part of this may had may have had to do with the fact that Aramco did not follow the footsteps of other oil companies around the And actually boosted dividend on a percentage basis that dividend ruled therefore remains pretty low against its peers but the
Iramco
ORG
message has always been we get that oil is a cyclical market and therefore we're gonna kinda maintain this fiscal discipline even though we could pay out more to And meanwhile
Simon
PERSON
we are seeing oil prices extend losses in
Asia
LOC
trading so what really are the key drivers moving forward now? Yeah I mean it's certainly the question mark here about demand for the oil market and just the kind of impact that we are seeing from a slow reopening in
China
GPE
you know there are these ongoing question mark
Mark here about demand for the oil market and just the kind of impact that we are seeing from a slow reopening in
China
GPE
. You know, there are these ongoing questions marks about whether or not we
Iranian
NORP
crude back into the market there were some incremental headlines I don't know if we should give them too much credence that there may be some progress on a return to the nuclear deal and therefore we get that oil back into the market Bearish. I think in the long term however there's always this concern about the excess capacity that
Saudi Arabia
GPE
has certainly a ramco didn't really essuage those
Yesterday
DATE
talking about how
12 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
per day. It's really the limit that
Saudi Arabia
GPE
can produce on a comfortable basis For there are long term plans to kind of ramp up that production and so when you're looking in the long-term, you know, couple months out,
the Saudi Arabia
GPE
clearly limited in the amount it can even contribute to the markets and that's something that may ultimately have some upward pressure if we continue Reduced supply from
Russia
GPE
and the like. It's about thank you
Simon Foxman
PERSON
there are many to a correspondent with the latest on a ram call let's bring a
Neil
PERSON
beverage now senior energy analyst at
San Francisco Bernstein
ORG
and
Neil
PERSON
you take a little more oil prices are we basically have erase all the gains that we have seen since the
Russian
NORP
invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
do you think prices have reached Lure. I think they will reach a floor somewhere
around $90
MONEY
a barrel what we've seen is the market move back into over supply inventories are building again we've seen that on the back of you know slightly weaker
Russian
NORP
oil production holding up I think far better than anyone expected and also the releases from the strategic patrollium reserves from a number of
OECD
ORG
countries they're really led to this circles of crude on the market right now but what we think is going to happen is that surplus will continue through the Quarter but as we get towards
the end of the year
DATE
into
next year
DATE
I think it's likely we'll see deficits build again in the market and we'll see prices start to take higher again How much more outside are you than anticipating ill Well I think we're still gonna have a run $
120
MONEY
a barrel
next year
DATE
I think as I said for
the third quarter
DATE
we're probably gonna be somewhere
around $90
MONEY
a barrel eh you know in that range but I can see another one at 100 Doors are barrel
next year
DATE
. I and remember I think the longer term aspects of this market is that you know we haven't seen their demand peak yet. We're still gonna have pretty good demand growth
next year
DATE
. I think as we see increased travel particularly outside of
China
GPE
. But we are witnessing you know under investment in the industry investment levels running
Half
CARDINAL
of where they were in
2014
DATE
and so that reluctance really to invest in long-term supply. You know, we'll lead to, you know, a time to markets ahead and and higher prices. I knew we're seeing a search in
Nat Gas
ORG
prices how much are you expecting you know in terms of volumes from gas to oil
this winter
DATE
as a result of Yeah I mean this is another very important part the market at the moment we're seeing L and G prices at $
50
MONEY
in
MMB
ORG
to you gas prices in
Europe
LOC
similar level so that's
about $300
MONEY
a barrel equivalent you know almost
three
CARDINAL
times the price of crude so we're customer Can switch from natural gas you know into oil you know the incentives you know clearly there now it is limited you know it's song customers
Able
PERSON
to switch into LPG or diesel. And you may be talking about half a
one 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
. It's not an enormous number. Within the context of
100 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
a day market. But it's certainly is enough to help lift demand. Yeah I was gonna ask you about
China
GPE
given the weekday that we just got you know they they've been pretty silent in the
LNG
ORG
market. We haven't seen a resumption in demand. Given these COVID lockdowns as well. Are you seeing signs that maybe the
Chinese
NORP
consumer can actually rebound substantially in
the second half
DATE
? No I don't I don't think in the short term
the third quarter
DATE
there's any really encouraging signs on the data that we're seeing you know as you said it
Substantially the
second
ORDINAL
half
CARDINAL
. No I don't I don't think in the short term
the third quarter
DATE
there's any really encouraging signs on the data that we're seeing you know as you said it's really a shocking set of numbers on the energy front out of
China
GPE
we're seeing you know negative Demand receiving oil demand that's effectively anemic no growth at
all this year
DATE
and it's you know primarily as a result of the COVID policies you know that we're we're seeing you're trying to still in a persistent state of of lockdown You know, as we get into
the fourth quarter
DATE
and hopefully into
2023
CARDINAL
, we expect those pulses, you know, will start to lift forever, you know, which will trigger, I think, it'll resume growth in
China
GPE
's natural gas and oil demand. But we're still probably
another quarter
DATE
away from that really starting to accelerate. Hmm so so where do you think
Ella G
PERSON
and and
Cole
PRODUCT
prices in
Asia
LOC
are gonna go this winter can we see record high prices that new Well we're already seeing you know incredibly high prices you know as we come into this winter
Challenges
PERSON
on the supply side. There's really no easy fixes. You know, there's not going to be any significant incremental
LNG
ORG
supply that comes on the market. You know, between now and and, and, and really
the end of the year
DATE
or even, you know,
next year
DATE
. And so we're in this position, we're really
Europe
LOC
is competing with
Asia
LOC
for any Ball you're allergy core girls it won't is effectively as you were some game which is really pushing prices to these very high levels and what we're seeing in
Asia
LOC
some customers saying look you know these prices are too high we're gonna swap out of gas into coal and brutally in the in the in the power And that's obviously leading to to higher you know cool prices is isn't is a knock on but I think you know we're facing a very very tight winter ahead with prices remaining very high. You took about a tide winter ahead
Neil
PERSON
how long do you think the supply energy crime to well lost Well, thank you. It is dependent on a few things. You're,
first
ORDINAL
of all, I think how events on the ground play out in in
Russia
GPE
. I mean, we think the conflict will will will continue you know, for
Time
ORG
. I think on the supply side you know we're not going to see a significant optic in terms of new
LNG
ORG
supply probably until
2024
DATE
or
2025
DATE
. So I think you know we should expect high prices Not just through
this winter
DATE
but also into
2023
CARDINAL
with really you know the supply relief coming I think in
23 four 2025
DATE
of course if the conflict ends then you know we could see things change but I think you know we're looking at a pretty tight gas It for
the next 18 months
DATE
.
Neil
ORG
, thanks so much for joining us.
Neil Beverage
PERSON
, our
San Francisco
GPE
Bernstein joining us from
Hong Kong
GPE
. Coming up. Tell me about what cryptos in this rebound. It's really momentum from that cool and expected
US
GPE
inflation data, your progress when it comes to
Ethereum
PERSON
's big upgrade that really is feeling a rally across crypto here with an update coming up This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving
Only on
Bloomberg
GPE
television and radio
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crypto
Asia Headlines
GPE
.
China
GPE
's economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in
July
DATE
has fresh COVID outbreaks across the country weighed on consumer and business spending. Industrial production rose
three
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
from
a year ago
DATE
. Lower than
June
DATE
's game and below economist forecasts of a
four
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
increase Retail sales grew at a slower than expected pace of
two
CARDINAL
. Seven% while fixed as that investment also gained less than forecast
Earlier China Central Bank
ORG
took the surprise step of cutting a key policy interest rate for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
January
DATE
as it rams up support for an economy struggling to recover
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
lending rate was reduced to
two and three quarters
DATE
per sand from
2:85%
PERCENT
. The PBOC also cut it
7 days
DATE
Liquidity from the Viking system. The chair of
the US House Intelligence Committee
ORG
Adam Schiff
PERSON
says he hasn't seen any evidence that materials the
FBI
ORG
seized from
Donald Trump's
PERSON
home were properly decasified
Trump
ORG
said
Friday
DATE
that everything taken was decalified or covered by executive and attorney client privilege chefs says that argument is absurd and he's asked
Intelligence
ORG
to provide a damage assessment of the seniors records. Tributes are pouring in from Wall St and beyond for
Auntie Jane
PERSON
the count of
eight
CARDINAL
oh president and former the way to bank co CEO
Jane
PERSON
's death the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after a
5 year
DATE
battley had with cancer it has been credited with building
Doyban
ORG
's investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender
Global
PERSON
trading powerhouse. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and I'll remember a quick take power down
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries in
Bonnie Quinn
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg Let's
PERSON
send a cryptocurrency crypto prices are showing signs of recovery and big money investors are again batting bake on digital currencys let's bring in Bloom
Banks
PERSON
join out
2000
DATE
how convincing is this rally crypto
winter
DATE
no more. Well kind of has
Linda Crypto
PERSON
is such a momentum asset and it is it encouraging for bulls the very least that it's down it's off of those lows around 19 1000 back up at
25 1000
CARDINAL
some people have said there will be a lot of resistance around
25 Last week
DATE
that were cooler than expected. There might be some optimism here. Signed investors are putting on more risk but it's in Investors are standing pet Possibly although we're starting to see
dodge
ORG
coin and
Shiba Inu
ORG
for instance have made big gains in
the past couple of days
DATE
and that might be some retail getting into the mix as well but as you say institutional investors do appear to be getting in a lot of the ones that went in were pretty comfortable with the volatility saying, okay, we, you know, we're good with something in the say
15 to 25
CARDINAL
And dollar range. So, yes, we're seeing more on chain activity from some big players. We've been talking about this
Ethereum
PERSON
's big upgrade. How much of that has already been facted into the prices that were seen right now? There has been a lot factored in and there could even be a sell the news kind of sell off after it's done it's supposed to be around
September 15
DATE
at this point but it also takes a lot of uncertainty Out of that market and so we've seen some optimism and there are people who think that we could still see more as we get into that and as we wait await the next inflation prints for instance. And of course regulation is in play. We have the Of the authority of
Singapore
GPE
reviewing I guess the rule of cryptocurrency is in the financial system. I mean, what are we hearing? What are we expecting?
Like serve the authority of
Singapore
GPE
reviewing I guess the rule of cryptocurrency's in the financial system I mean what are we hearing what are we expecting how might this play out in in in in the market Well, it's kind of there are
two
CARDINAL
things you can say about it.
One
CARDINAL
institutions, bigger players really do feel comfortable with more regulation because they want the clarity of it. You also still see the people say the more libertarian, you know, crypto back to its roots, people who
Love
WORK_OF_ART
that as much but in general it seems to be hoping the market to get a little bit more certainty from those regulatory players. Beware volatility blue bags do I know there. Thank you. Plenty more ahead. Keep it here with us. This is The difference between endless research and a winning strategy
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
combines the latest in
AI
GPE
powered tools and in-depth analysis. To accelerate the research process. To grow your practice and make better use of your valuable time. The difference is Law Oh the much more line
60 40
CARDINAL
portfolio
60 40
QUANTITY
you know a portfolio or generally speaking for most investors would make sense because We'll make a campaign. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a base case. It's still next lot of sense.
Close to
CARDINAL
five or 10. I actually think they're increasing it pretty dramatically at the moment is is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your return because
60 40
DATE
as I mentioned has been a challenging portfolio construction exploited
half
CARDINAL
. Alright that was our MY post question of course that we've been asking all of our guests here. The
60 40
DATE
portfolio is it really dead? So it seems like it's overwhelmingly people say look it possibly is still viable has right the
63%
PERCENT
still say yes Surely you're gonna see these correlations reserve yourself once again where you know if if negative correlations maybe but We've seen the the
first
ORDINAL
part of
this year
DATE
or so I mean you basically have seen those move in tandem right and you can actually perform above inflation right and this is what people were saying You know they're saying it's viable you gotta just wait wait this out but then you know when it comes to what the alternatives are there's a lot of questions on what really you can replace bonds with too. Well
Jerry
PERSON
's still out right you talk about whether it can perform a barb inflation right now yes inflation at
eight and a half percent
DATE
so
Vaughn
ORG
if you want What would you replace it with? I mean, if you take a look at those, we spoke with they say real estate is a good bat Agriculture commodities
With I mean if you take a look at those we spoke with they say real estate is a good bat
32
CARDINAL
Agriculture commodities. We'll talk about how food prices have been surging and expect to surge. I had
21%
PERCENT
say that's a place to be as well and gold at
14%
PERCENT
well we don't quite know we that's always the view out there that cold Can't really outperform inflation and crypto we know how that how volatile the crypto space has been so
six%
NORP
still maintaining that Place to be but as it stands right now Is it if you ask me But I'll go with that real estate as well. Now, let's do a quick check of the latest business flush headlines.
Chinese
NORP
developer, long for group is said to be receiving a
447 1 million dollars
MONEY
syndicate loan which would As
this week
DATE
Outside
FAC
mortgage farms New home loans
last year
DATE
. Scrutiny
McCarthy Cash
PERSON
flow positive again Underlying fully
One 1 billion
MONEY
was up
48%
PERCENT
on
year
DATE
the border proved a buyback increase of
up to 300
CARDINAL
One
1 million US dollars
MONEY
over
the next 12 months
DATE
. Right and those blue scope still shares were jumping or having jumping in
Sydney
GPE
after those results early we did speak with the managing director and CEO
Mark Vasella
PERSON
about that profit B and expanding that sure buyback We're certainly wear forecasting the outlook for
the first half of the second year
DATE
to be not at the levels we're at and that's largely driven by pricing so what Over
the last 12 months
DATE
with hot roll cool prizes almost reaching
2000 US dollars
MONEY
a ton was an extraordinary level of pricing that's a level of pricing
Requiring at the state
WORK_OF_ART
that level we were certainly in a position to take advantage of that pricings now back
around 800 US dollars
MONEY
a ton that's still a very healthy price in terms of the long run average which is
more like $600
MONEY
a ton so we've guided On
eight
CARDINAL
to
900 1 million dollars
MONEY
eBit
ORG
for
the first half
DATE
of
the new financial year
DATE
which in historical terms if you weren't looking at it immediately after the record result we Blue scope. And mark your guidance as far as cash flow is concerned given the catfish that you have announced in your in your press release here. Tell us a little bit more about, you know, the seeds you're planting for the future. Yeah it's very good question I mean we think we think about certainly the cash regenerated
this year
DATE
$
one
MONEY
.
7 billion
CARDINAL
on the back of those very high prices as I mentioned earlier We think carefully about how we allocate our capital our cash so we have a range of capital projects that we're focused on the blast furnace reline and new metal coating line in
Australia
GPE
we made an acqui In the
US
GPE
just before the close of
the financial year
DATE
for a coding business and of course the money that we spend on on the expansion of our
North Star
LOC
facility our mini mill in
North America
LOC
so we think
Carefully
PRODUCT
about that profile of projects that we have internally this money that's required to be spent for us to continue to decarbonize our business and meet the ever increasing targets around greenhouse gas emissions and then we also think about the cash that we In terms of returns to shareholders in our board have enough confidence in in the business model in the outlook that we've announced to
Shareholders and our board have enough confidence in in the business model and the outlook that we've announced
ยข25 Final
ORG
dividend and also on
up to
QUANTITY
500 1 million dollars
MONEY
buyback so we're very mindful of what's happening in the market internal opportunities but also returns to shareholders
Mark
PERSON
I know you don't have really a big sort of exposure to the
Chinese
NORP
economy General sort of rule but certainly what happens there affects certainly the industry based on Seniors for the weakness in the economy. Where do you think that puts the outlook for the entire industry? Oh
China
GPE
has AA significant impact in terms of the
Asian
NORP
markets in particular so we watch that very closely I think the signals that have come out of
China
GPE
in
the last few years
DATE
around their challenge to meet
Carp
ORG
decarbonization reducing them out of
Sports
GPE
rather than bringing in high cost imports and then selling product is low cost exports I think that's been fundamentally For the steel industry in the
Asian
NORP
region. So, we watch that data quite closely. No, that was a blue scope steel
MD
GPE
and CEO
Mark Visella
PERSON
. They're speaking with me and
Dave
PERSON
. If you take a look how iron or commodities are going here, they're really are reacting to that data done that we got out of
China
GPE
which was nonetheless Basically week you take a look at what we've seen on iron oral prices down close to
two%
ORG
in
Singapore
GPE
here right now we take a look at the nation still makers they turned out
about 81 1 million tons
QUANTITY
of the alloy
last month
DATE
that's down more than six% from
a year ago
DATE
has. And of course the border market center of an impacted by that data that I'm out of
China Asian
NORP
stocks pairing canes erasing losses for
the year
DATE
though that is it from Bloomberg Mark So now you've been a JP
Morgan
PERSON
for
about 25 years
DATE
. Yes. Okay. So and now you run one of the most important cards of
JP Morgan
ORG
which is I say is the asset and wealth management business. What actually is wealth management and how is that different than asset management? Great question The
two
CARDINAL
are often used interchangeably but Have distinctions asset management business is where we manage money on behalf of Institutions sovereign wealth funds pension funds we manage them in mutual funds we manage them in ETFs we manage them in single stock single bonds Hedge funds private equity and the lake and that is the heart of the fiduciary business that we run here at
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
. Wealth management is that plus Standing someone's entire balance sheet. So, for the individuals where we manage money, we also help them with their mortgage. We help them with a loan that they might need. We help them with their basic credit card and so wealth management is trying to help someone with their entire life both their assets and their liabilities, their planning, their The legacy that they want to leave for their families the
529
CARDINAL
plans they need to prepare to get their kids to go through college and it's a great it's a great insight into people
To get their kids to go through college and it's a great, it's a great insight into people's, you know, entire journey. I've always been a person who's just been attracted to hair I like to sit and think and theorize how I can manifest these visions that I have for braiding and how I can take something that
Macy
ORG
Like it's a line drawing in my mind and apply that to someone's scalp We are the only culture that has here that grows out of our head the way that it does Anyone from the
African
NORP
diaspora is born with this amazingly curly hair that can be shaped into a variety of different ways of expression I want black people to love themselves for how they naturally appear and also to appreciate the cultural practices such as writing that our ancestors have practice For
centuries
DATE
. It's a great question. Great question. It's gonna be the best question I get
all night
TIME
.
China
GPE
's economic recovery unexpectedly weekends as fresh virus outbreaks way on spending meanwhile the PBOC surprises with a cut to key interest rates as it ramps up to support.
Japan
GPE
's economy recovers to its creep pandemic signs following the end of COVID curves on businesses will have the details Yet again in
September
DATE
.
8 AM
TIME
. What is happening in
China
GPE
as well just in terms of some of the cloudiness and lack of clarity that exists in markets. We had economic data that shows that there's still quite a struggle going on in terms of a lack of momentum in
China
GPE
. This is the state of play and treasureries on the
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
. You're seeing the yield Remaining deeply inverted. We have defendants at
minutes
TIME
and speakers that may shed light on whether the power pivot was a figment of the market's imagination, head shruncing, net sellers on
the week
DATE
with the most aggressive selling seen in
10 years
DATE
specifically. I wanna get to a story around
Saudi
NORP
Prince Walite Bentalal.
One
CARDINAL
of the most high profile Investors,
one
CARDINAL
of the countries richest man you want to call themselves the oracle of
Omaha
GPE
's
Arabian
NORP
equivalent. This one of the most red stories and it's about him making a
500 1 billion dollars
MONEY
bet on
Russian
LANGUAGE
. It happened In
February
DATE
there's no Isn't by gas prompt And and the value of those receipts dropped sharply of course after
February 24
DATE
kingdom holding stock here to date in a broadly positive market struggling for direction down
six% Latest
ORG
news Let's talk about the injury that has been afflicted to risk in the very
first
ORDINAL
instance
this morning
TIME
. This is about the quantum of misery from the
Chinese
NORP
data which we will go through in more detail. Back to the little bit of a Since
November
DATE
tapped on by
a quarter
CARDINAL
of one% bank of America saw
Since
November
DATE
tech time by
quarter
CARDINAL
of
one% bank of America
ORG
saw
11 Dollars
MONEY
for a
winter
DATE
US
GPE
stocks the biggest inflow in
8 weeks
DATE
for
Dennis Gartman
PERSON
warns this is a burr market walley and for him he or she who loses the least will be the winner
Michael Burry
PERSON
has been bang bang bang on
Twitter
PERSON
this morning
TIME
this is the relief rally that you've seen
the Bear Market
ORG
rally Nasdaq By
20%
PERCENT
from its lows up
50%
PERCENT
since his
January
DATE
lows but
Michael Berry
PERSON
is banging the drum he's seen these
50%
PERCENT
retracements before and then an implosion that followed to some pressing warnings from
Michael Barry
PERSON
to the oil Chinese date of the darkening
China
GPE
outlook to the little bit of wind out of the oil market sale this morning again you've seen Opec and the I and the
EIA
ORG
dying grading are all brought to
Falls
PERSON
back ever so slightly but again
Iran
GPE
could be open to doing a nuclear deal that's the latest line from
Vienna
GPE
If they receive guarantees on sanctions. So the oil market fading the risk move. Let's get to Jews. She brings in the data in terms of how it's plundered across the
Asian
NORP
markets. Jewels, good
morning
TIME
. Hey, man. See, I certainly off the highs of the day on that disappointing a data dump from
China
GPE
but you've still got regional stocks For a
fourth
ORDINAL
session and we are holding at a
2 month
DATE
high very much led by our games that we are seeing in
Japan
GPE
which I'll get to in a moment you're seeing a bit of a flat move on
CSI
ORG
300 but sentiment has been boosted by the fact that you had the PBOC give this surprise rate cut to that
1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
and also to the
7 day
DATE
reverse repo from
two
CARDINAL
. One to
two%
ORG
and it was a
10
CARDINAL
basis point cut on
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
which basically nobody in the market was expecting but certainly Perhaps warranted as you are starting to see this weakness in the
Chinese
NORP
economy we are seeing that data dealt weakness really weighing on the Aussie it is trending lower as is the one off by
about four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
against the
Greenback
PERSON
let's have a look though what we are In
Japan
GPE
the NK 225 on track tour race it's
2022
DATE
loss that is here the
Nikki
GPE
is the blue line the white line is
the Tokyo Stock Exchange
ORG
or the topics index so both of those out performing what we are seeing in the
MSI Asia Pacific
LOC
Index which is
15%
PERCENT
this year
DATE
and the all world index still down
some 12%
PERCENT
of course helped out by a week yen the stimulus from the bank of
Japan
GPE
and we also had a pretty good read on the
Japanese
NORP
economy in terms of
second quarter
DATE
GDP so they are now back to pre-pandic levels for that economy really driven by the consumer out there spending
Jill
PERSON
thank you very much
Julie
PERSON
it's only wrapping up at the tail risk from the data dump let's get a little bit more on that data from
China
GPE
that we had earlier
Steven Steven Engle
PERSON
is standing by in
Hong Kong
GPE
so I I mean there's some rich language used this morning the darkening
China
GPE
outlook Just how dark was the trifecta of data that we had Stephen? Yeah,
Raymond Young
PERSON
at Ian's
Ed Banking
PERSON
. He says, the data was alarming and if you look at it on the surface of things, manus. Look at how many different misses we got for the
July
DATE
data. Industrial Production, miss, retail sales, big miss, fixed assets, urban Even though we've had a lot of stimulus a miss property investment miss new home prices a miss jobless rate stayed relative relatively stable just down a little bit five. Four% but then also in
the sub day
DATE
that we saw that youth Unemployment. Those
between 16 to 24 years of age
DATE
rose to
20%
PERCENT
. That is a record high and we have a record number of
more than 10 1 million
QUANTITY
new college graduates hitting the job market and the prospects are not looking so good for the youth unemployment rate. So, these are all concerns as we Towards the party
congress
ORG
later this year
DATE
for season ping and social stability and I haven't even mentioned property really a property is at the backdrop and the retail sales really also the weakness there indicating that the
Chinese
NORP
consumer is not feeling the confidence and those industrial External demand is not necessarily keeping pace with what we saw.
In the confidence and those industrial production numbers where we showing that external demand is not necessarily keeping pace with what we saw
a month ago
DATE
in
June
DATE
when there was pent up demand and a lot of export orders came or exports came out of the factories and onto Because of those
Shanghai
GPE
lockdowns that recovery didn't last long. Truly, I'm watering numbers. Stephen, thank you for the analysis that says
Steven Engel
PERSON
in
Hong Kong
GPE
. Recovered on its Let's get more with our
China AJ
ORG
economic correspondent and the current so and I mean how does it stack up with what condiments we're expecting? Look the economy certainly got back where it was before the pandemic in
the second quarter
DATE
. It's back it around four. 10 billion worth eh in size now
Yusuf
EVENT
. It grew
two
CARDINAL
. Two% compared to
a year ago
DATE
. A lot of that
Down
PERSON
to consumption that makes up
about half
CARDINAL
economic activity in
Japan
GPE
consumption grew one. One% capital spending by companies also increase that groom point just over
one%
ORG
as well now it all speaks to the idea that
Japan
GPE
was coming out of easing period of easing rest From COVID and both consumers and factories were getting up and running again but to your point I think the more forward looking suggestions in
Japan
GPE
's economy are at the momentum will be hard to keep going What is happening reflecting the price of imported oil I want of course you know the bank of Continues to talk about downside arrests to the economy and continuously support the economy. So You look the reading in
second quarter
DATE
was somewhat positive as I say gets the economy back where it was before the pandemic forest hit but a lot of Economics are questioning just how sustainable the moment and we'll be here and they're looking for a slower end of the year for
Japan
GPE
's economy. Anna thank you very much and to
Karen
PERSON
there I suppose a great deal hinges on on where we go with
Dolly Yan
PERSON
which has been so volatile in
the first 8 months of the year
DATE
thank you very much and just starting a round cup they have posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
adjusted profit of any listed company ever driven by high group price And production let's get more with our
Middle East
LOC
energy market reporter
Anthony Dapala
PERSON
return from
the United States
GPE
do you know where you are you're back at home I do I do know each other Hey Facebook Whoever went away but let's be quite frank about it. I'm a
Nasa
ORG
must be hailed in the hallways of
Saudi Arabia
GPE
and this is a monster set of numbers. Run us through the big highlights. Yeah, I mean they're the raincoat was gonna kill it
this quarter
DATE
was not a surprise oil prices have been booming and we've seen the previous results Some of the international oil companies that came in with record profits. So, with a ramp goes track record of being, you know, the biggest company in the world at certain points, having the most profitable oil company. It was clear that we're gonna bring in these results and they did a little bit better than the mark was expecting. So, it was a slight beat on the profit, almost doubling it from from
last year's
DATE
period. They really brought it home with of course the high oil prices contributing to that higher income from the oil but also refining. They pointed to refining being a component of the increased profit there as gasoline fuel. All those prices increased more quickly When did the price of oil and we saw huge demand again I mean that's our warning that if jet fuel demand comes back to the way it was before the pandemic we're gonna have problems with restraint capacity on jet fuel on those products Maybe a special dividend or some kind of additional reward foreign investors cuz it's really been reflected in this share price per se. We're already there paying the largest dividend in the world now so they've maintain that. They've said they'll keep that for
the coming quarter
DATE
. Endless we're gonna have an endless call
later today
TIME
they'll probably be asking about some of that they'll probably be asking a lot about the capacity and rampost plans to increase capacity because those are some of the main factors as you saw the dividend on the equity side the capacity aspect on the market side so we'll we'll be looking to get some more information But we haven't heard anything yet about
The capacity aspect on the market side so we'll be looking to get some more information about that but we haven't heard anything yet about any increase in in the dividend and when asked the company is so far said they're gonna be sticking with it like we said it's the biggest World yup so they probably think that's enough we'll also be looking for where that investment is going and
one
CARDINAL
telling point in the statement is that a rampose sees Which isn't hugely bullish and it's kind of in line with some of the more what we would have previously seen as negative oil demand outlooks that we've seen from some of the IOCs.
Anthony
PERSON
, fantastic to have you back. Thank you for stopping by on the set. That is anti the power there. Wanna get you a red headline hitting the
Bloomberg
PERSON
. This is on Wall Headlines as well from around the world Landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit. They're meeting with
Tarmony
ORG
's president saying when and other lawmakers according to
the American Institute
ORG
the entire one. Discussions include global supply chains and climate change. The trip risks keeping
Rusty
PERSON
is starting to recover after being stabbed at a lecture in
New York AP
GPE
has quoted his agent saying the author is now on the road to recovery rushed to have been removed from eventilator
Sunday
DATE
and is able to talk and joke the author of the satanic versus suffered serious injuries on After being stabbed multiple times shortly after taking the stage. The chair of
the US House Intelligence Committee
ORG
Adam Schiff
PERSON
says he hasn't seen any evidence that materials the
FBI
ORG
sees from
Donald Home
PERSON
we're probably declassified
Trump
ORG
said
Friday
DATE
that everything taken was declassified or covered by executive and attorney client privilege chef says that argument is absurd and he's asked
US
GPE
intelligence to provide a damage assessment of the seized records. Water levels at a keyway point on
the Rand River
LOC
are expected to be steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
as a climate crisis adds to
Europe Crunch
LOC
. Can't transit past the market cub which is west of Frankford when the water level is
about 40 cm
QUANTITY
or below it is currently at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
the rain is western
Europe
LOC
's most important river for transport Fuel and other goods And tributes are pouring in from Wall St and beyond for
Auntie Jane
PERSON
they can't talk it's
Deutsche Bank Co
ORG
CEO. That the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer he's been credited with building Dorcher Banks investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick tape powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and adolescence in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries this is
Bloomberg Yusef
PERSON
. Thanks
Jules
PERSON
let's get you a bit of a snapshot of what else is still to come on the program sure I have management aren't they such a sucker and joins us to talk strategy individually market and what she makes so of those monster earnings We speak to
HSBC
ORG
's
max
PERSON
catner about what he thinks of cash in the as an allocation. In this market. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Have you seen from the government in terms of green funding? Has committed to dubbling the amount of investments in so called green technologies. I think we need more than just pronouncements. We need real
Startups Companies in this space. Well I think he's framework is reflective of this challenges that
Japan
GPE
's society is facing namely that growth has been present but growth has not been a force evenly distributed but Innovative will startups that that can really drive the income growth that the government needs to redistribute
Ken Griffin
PERSON
is moving both Citadel and Citadel Securities to
Miami
GPE
.
Asian
NORP
stocks Hey also sit waiting for the fad minutes
later this week
DATE
to reveal the clues
Size
ORG
of the potential next rate hike
max
PERSON
catner assesses all as the chief multi acid strategist at
HSBC Max
ORG
no pressure on you this week or any given week but if I look at The data that we have
this morning
TIME
. I mean, these darkening clouds of data from
China
GPE
. My question to you is, as you start
the week
DATE
looking at risk in
the back quarter
DATE
. When you see these darkening clouds, does it reset the tone of a quantum of misery just for
China
GPE
or is it something more ominous for the world? Good
morning
TIME
. Good morning Manus. I think it is something more ominous for the world. In fact, when we look at all of ours and global leading indicators. We've got a bit a sort of Leading indicators Manufacturing across housing across the consumer as well and that is really in developed markets and in emerging markets are really more of a global And what that says is that actually what we've seen so far so the leading indicators of the leading indicators Going down really quite sharply and in particular in
the last two 3 months
DATE
But indeed really being something much more broad based both geographically but also crossect this so it But it's not only just a darkening cloud picture perhaps in
China
GPE
but really across the board and across sectors The market's life team has done a lot of work here at
Bloomberg
PERSON
just reaching out to a
1056
DATE
investment professionals in their
weekly
DATE
pulse and what they've basically gathered is To
60 40
CARDINAL
portfolio approach isn't quite dead yet Basically investors think that this is actually a good way to beat inflation but it's going to be a longer term place that is by a margin of
roughly two
CARDINAL
to one still see this as a viable strategy for delivering returns over What are you telling investors
this morning
TIME
about an approach like this? Is it relevant? Is that what needs to be done? Look I think the the
60 40
DATE
bashing has been invoke for for quite some time right? The reality is whenever asking investors or whenever ask anyone okay We're not gonna do
60 40
CARDINAL
here we're gonna replace the
40
CARDINAL
portion of bonds with something else now give me something that is as liquid and also as big as the bunk market the answers are usually quite thin shall we say so you know in Over
the next 10 years
DATE
perhaps the allocation to commodities should be a bit larger.
Over
the next 10 years
DATE
perhaps the allocation to commodities should be a bit larger rated in order to Inflation On top of that we'll be looking Strategic ass allocation data so we look for example in equity meters equity sensitivities of a typical balance funds or we look at the AAII strategic allocation Over
the last 2030 years
DATE
, on average to equities and bonds. Well, guess what? Where it comes out? Roughly at 60 40 And we know it's much more strategic as the location. So, I never really quite understood why people said, oh, look at
60 40
DATE
.
Ed
PERSON
really badly
last month
DATE
. Therefore, we have to It's really a strategic, a long-term ass allocation too like like you've just mentioned. But I must declare actually mad I've already had
max
PERSON
I've already had the letter from from the pension provider apparently I've pivoted to
4060
CARDINAL
so that that'll give you a bit of a clue but that leads is very nut Very nicely to all to do the skewer and the risk
max
PERSON
in your life. You say, that buy everything mentality, buy anything backdrop will fade. You're on the way to equities, but then this this place into the into the bomb allocation that you have, you would add to develop market bonds At
the end of the year
DATE
if you're in that scenario Yeah, I think right now, you wanna be more in the value camp and equities, right? So, you wanna be more playing towards the higher yields, very tactically. But once those yield levels More compelling like you said I think that is then the time to add because exactly of what we've talked about in the
first
ORDINAL
segment because of this darkening a global growth outlook right not really being something constraint to
one
CARDINAL
particular geography or to
One
CARDINAL
particular sector, but really much more broad based
these days
DATE
. So, therefore, actually bonds make more sense than equities. Now, what we have seen however is that of course, real rates have declined so much and longer dated real estate have declined so much and that's For everything, right? Whether that
today
DATE
is whether that's growth, whether that's bonds, whether that is the
Japanese
NORP
yen, the
Swiss
NORP
front, gold, bitcoin, you name it, right
Buy
PERSON
anything mentality but that can only go as far As the market expect a good kind of fit pivot and that is what I question my question really the good kind of nature for fit pivot I do believe if we do get a fed privilege It's only gonna be because of That's something you wanna pick up on
Max
PERSON
because I'm looking here at the implied probabilities for what the fed may or may not do come
September
DATE
. Do you think go for our clients? It's looking like a coin toss here on a
75
CARDINAL
bit move,
50
CARDINAL
,
50
CARDINAL
chance at a time when I'm looking at a
50 50
CARDINAL
option I reach out to people like
Max Ketner
PERSON
to see which way this is gonna go what's your read? Yeah I think we'll probably head into
September
DATE
with that
50 50
CARDINAL
property to to be quite frank right and I don't think we'll get a lot more clarity before the FM Meeting quite frankly because we got the CPI data coming out so shortly Of the
FMC
ORG
meeting and that's probably gonna be the crucial later that the more crucial thing for me is what's gonna happen after
September
DATE
right? So what do we get out of the minutes? What do we get in terms of the future
fed
ORG
path into
2023
DATE
?
Two
CARDINAL
,
three
CARDINAL
, rate cards. So, something I can do what we had
2019
DATE
where perhaps you have a tiny a wee bit of recession right? Right. Nothing really serious. Any of
two
CARDINAL
three
CARDINAL
rate cuts in everything is gonna be swapped higher. And that is that sort of anything rally's mentality that is what I question. That's really important to keep in mind
Max
PERSON
. It's been great reflecting on some of these ideas
Max Ketner
PERSON
. Chief Waltias is trying to just hit HSD. We still got much more to come on this program.
My
max
PERSON
it's been great reflecting on some of these ideas
Max Canter
PERSON
Chief Multi has to try to just take
HSBC
ORG
we still got much more to come on this program but it's just
Bloomberg
GPE
Recently cryptocurrencies have been very popular and if a client came to you and said, look, I'd like some cryptocurrencies in my portfolio. What would you say? Oh, we've actually been really deep into crypto, Into learning about blockchain And all of the new businesses. You know, I would Prizes as Crypto You know we have made a series of toe hold investments on behalf of our clients both in some of the currency baskets as well as with some venture firms that are investing primarily in the computer area. I think it has the potential to be Lately game changing. But it is still Such the wild west and so it's so uncertain but there's it has the potential to completely upend everything. Across
the Middle East
LOC
but in the equity markets we saw a little bit more of a steady picture remember that to We're insurance services as well at some Earnings just before the finish line for
the quarter
DATE
. Look out for
Halloween
DATE
brothers and of course ongoing analysis and reflection on the huge
Saudi Aramco
NORP
delivery. To the commodity markets
Yousef
PERSON
just dopating into the oil market the old market is lower this morning obviously you've got those stunning stellar arm code numbers but crude down at nearly
one%
ORG
in
New York
GPE
iron or dine nearly
two%
ORG
and will lose more altitude if you look at the steel makers producing
81 1 million
QUANTITY
Of steel
this month
DATE
and that's the smallest number since
2018
DATE
. So, you're looking at Doctor all on the back of this 30 poor and alarming. Data according to
Max Katner
PERSON
at
HSBC
GPE
. It's pretty much full service shadow banking with.
It's pretty much full service shadow banking with nobody in charge.
Bloomberg
PERSON
the open with
Jonathan Perry
PERSON
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
cat
weekdays
DATE
on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Access the financial world on demand. Hear from leading economists Policy makers. And industry experts be alive and on demand webinars. Only from
Bloomberg
ORG
. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com webinars Meanwhile the PBOC surprises with a cuts of key interest rates as it ramp Support. Curves on businesses. Post the biggest profit of any listed company ever driven by high crew prices and production.
Central Bank
ORG
we'll go big with tightening it again in
September
DATE
. Let's check back in on those
Asian
NORP
markets
Juliet Sally
PERSON
is putting together the very disappointing
Chinese
NORP
data and a rate cut what is it done for race
Jules Hey Matt
PERSON
I see I was certainly we are off the highs of the day on the regional benchmark index but still firmer for a
fourth
ORDINAL
session certainly that disappointing data dump out of
China
GPE
did see a bit of witness coming through in the
Hong Kong
GPE
Stimulus which was a bit of a surprise that cut to
the 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
taking it down
10
CARDINAL
basis points to
275%
PERCENT
. And also a cut to the reverse repo rate that
7 day
DATE
rate just slightly to
two%
ORG
from
two
CARDINAL
. One% so that has seen a little bit of I guess support for Risk given that we are expecting to see further stimulus now from
Chinese
NORP
authorities but certainly it's been playing out in the currency market with weakness in the
Aussie
GPE
dollar on the back of that disappointing
China
GPE
data dump and in the offshore you won as well which is up down I should say about Chance of one% against the dollar. But have a look at
Japan
GPE
's market. They're up by about
one%
ORG
even though we're seeing a stronger yen
today
DATE
as well and this is the market that we are looking out for. The fact that you've had
the week
DATE
yet over 2022 also bank of
Japan
GPE
's stimulus Now on track that market the K 225 Yusuf
two
CARDINAL
erase it's losses for
the year
DATE
so getting very back to where we saw it
mid last year
DATE
in
2021
DATE
the
Nikki
ORG
certainly outperforming
today
DATE
The long road to recovery. In the meantime, analysts are predicting the worst drop in profits for
Asia
LOC
since
2020
DATE
. What are some of the highlights? Yeah, absolutely. So, we have seen that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index members earnings per share slid
16%
PERCENT
in
the 3 months June
DATE
from
a year earlier
DATE
and now we're expecting about a
12%
PERCENT
drop in earnings from those companies listed on the MSI
China
GPE
index of course this index does make up a large proportion of the
MSI Asia Pacific
LOC
Index as We know the reasons for this are the COVID lockdowns the impact to
China
GPE
's economy but certainly it is looking like it is going to be some significant losses for these companies in the prospect of dwindling profits adding to the negatives that have just ragged on the overall regional bench Index over
the past year or so
DATE
it is down as you can see
about 18%
PERCENT
over
the past 12 months
DATE
versus what we've seen in terms of near
30%
PERCENT
drop from the MSCI
China
GPE
index and
a 10 and a half percent
CARDINAL
drop from the all world index JP Morgan though saying there are some ups
Months
DATE
versus what we've seen in terms of a near
30%
PERCENT
drop from the MSI
China
GPE
index and
a 10 and a half percent
CARDINAL
drop from the all world index JP Morgan though saying there are some upsides for
Asian
NORP
stocks they are looking at the reopening place in Southeast You're in tourism and retail and you've got M and G saying that some of the improving earnings elsewhere in the region could see the likes of
Indonesia
GPE
and
India
GPE
outperform
Alice
ORG
.
Jill
PERSON
thank you very much Report it in
Singapore
GPE
that
Jeanette Sally
PERSON
. Predicts global inflation will stay at nose bleed levels as a supply chain crunch massive physical stimulus commodity price shot rising wages or fuel the fire someone
Foxman
ORG
has more on heights pay
night
TIME
here in
the Middle East
LOC
so we've got some new data this time across the region So how's it shaping up so far? Well, the notable one to me manus was cutter. Cutter has been leading the inflation picture and we did see inflation ease up slightly in
July
DATE
. Coming down from
five
CARDINAL
. Four% to just under a five%. Again, they've been leading the way in terms of overall in So notable to see that pullback yes we have the world cup yes we have L and G story in the picture but maybe we saw a little bit of a pullback because of
the summer
DATE
we'll also get
Saudi
NORP
CPI data coming out
today
DATE
they have been the lager across the region but
Bloomberg econom Points
ORG
out the trend is much higher despite the basic effects essentially of that VAT hike from
a couple of years ago
DATE
and
Bloomberg
PERSON
We are expected to end the year at three%. Also saw
Israeli
NORP
inflation data coming through a little bit outside this
gulf
LOC
region. Accelerating yet again to
four
CARDINAL
. Six% on On your basis. This should give more father for
the Bank of Israel
ORG
to maintain its very aggressive stance. Starting to hike rates for the
first
ORDINAL
time in really over
a decade
DATE
from that cycle. That meeting that we get next central bank meeting is on
August 22
DATE
. And then you're also looking at the impact of
the Russian Ukraine war
GPE
on some of the investments by
Sally Billionaires
PERSON
, right? That is right and that we got this filing out from the
Saudi
NORP
exchange and revealing something rather astonishing from kingdom holding which invested
500 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
three
CARDINAL
Russian
NORP
energy names back in
February
DATE
and in
March
DATE
so those names include
Luke Oil
PERSON
gas prom and
Rosneff
ORG
with Gas Prom getting the biggest chunk of that investment remember we saw the shares of those companies really After this war began but perhaps seeing a bit of an opportunity to make money from this crisis and I think the interesting thing here is remember there are ties now between
Saudi
NORP
PIF
ORG
the Well fund and kingdom holding run by prince Because
PIF
ORG
took a
17%
PERCENT
steak in that company
just a couple of months ago
DATE
so this may is something that may raise some eyebrows kingdom not telling us whether or not it continues to maintain those investments Also notably coming through from this filing a couple other country companies that kingdom has invested in. They include Uber, total,
Alibaba
GPE
,
BHP
ORG
, and adventure firm called
Hercules Capital
ORG
. And
Moody's
ORG
dying greeting turkey's long term foreign death rating what was there thinking behind this Well Policies that the
Turkish
NORP
government has maintained to try and stabilize the currency, Those foreign exchange reserves. They say that they are unlikely to be effective in restoring some degree. Me of macroeconomic stability.
FX
ORG
reserves have been declining across
the year
DATE
even though they saw a little bit of an increase
last month
DATE
we're looking at a
Turkish
NORP
lera that's flirting with
18
CARDINAL
to the
US
GPE
dollar so the weakest and ever really for the currency they're outlook is techn
Stable
PRODUCT
here but this becomes the lowest quoting rated rating across the major agencies.
Didn't ever really for the currency. They're outlook it's technically a stable here but this becomes the lowest Across the major agencies we'll see if some of the other agencies will ultimately follow suit with this downgrade. Yeah Simon and you know I can I can relate to your reaction looking at some of some of the numbers in really we push Air out of my lungs as well. Simone, thank you for that. Simon Foxmooth cut a financial center in
Doha
GPE
. And let's get to
Saudi Aramco
NORP
now which has posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
adjusted profit of any listed company globally. That was driven by a high crude prices and production, net income, that's running through the numbers, that rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter
DATE
. It's up
25
CARDINAL
.
5 billion
CARDINAL
a year earlier
DATE
. The company is using the windfall to reduce the debt and invest in a huge expansion of its production capacity. Let's get to art you touch recycling, director of investments, and Particularly on the bottom line a little bit of a surprise that they haven't announced a special dividend yet. Yes I mean I was thinking the same thing but it wasn't line with the expectation it comes to the net profit
75 1 billion dollars
MONEY
for
the whole year
DATE
they came out with
18
CARDINAL
. 8 billion for
quarter two
DATE
exactly in line with mode market was expecting
Second half of
DATE
Just because I think oil is staying longer for a higher for a longer period of time. And if not now then when And they certainly it's interesting when you look at the gearing numbers the gearing but not collapse so it came from
just over 14%
PERCENT
down to just under eight% and also the guidance in terms of the production numbers Quite chunky as well. So those are other facets that could build that case. Exactly. So the gearing numbers were about seven. Nine% for
quarter two
DATE
and the guidance by the management was to bring it to five% level. So if it moves to five% level which I think it could in
quarter four
DATE
then there is obviously they might open Upward dividends. How does the
Saudi
NORP
Aramco opportunity? Especially also we just spoke to from
H Maybe
ORG
some of these players listed players like
Saudi
NORP
Aram even though he didn't mention it explicitly. How does that compare to other
Sort
GPE
of sectors within the
Sally
PERSON
Tadal As far as the numbers are concerned banks with super strong so banks came out with an exceptional amount of profit landing group was up like
18%
PERCENT
mortgage recovery we saw we saw electric Improvement which has been a headband as far as banking sector was concerned. Ah so the top line equity was down to
50
CARDINAL
basis points on
a month
DATE
on
Monday
DATE
basis. But consumers were weak. Ah we saw some weak
Numbers
ORG
from Not so great numbers from Almara as well health care the one of the strongest franchise in Southeast unexpected the So overall I would say
Saudi Tatawa
PERSON
was mixed set of numbers. Mix the neutral. When you look at risk I mean just reflecting on what
Max
PERSON
had to say to us which is you know he seems to die this narrative that you're gonna get that some huge pivot from the fed and you would also concur without you say the case for a significant pivot from the fad is weak And you're using this sort of buy everything rally as a moment to trade back on risk so just talk us through why you think the pivot is weak and what do you what are you skating back on the most the current rally that we have seen man is since
the beginning of July
DATE
I think it's totally over done just because we haven't seen significant infl Interesting highly leveled names, highly names, the industrial, the the real estate names, and we have kind of upping our quality, rotating our portfolio in terms of
Team
ORG
. The other line here in the golf I mean
Emar
PERSON
properties emo development also switching ownership a little bit from our properties a good chunk going To the ruler of
Dubai
GPE
at does that change anything meaningfully on your outlook on your rating for some of these stocks? And I think overall outlook for the real estate sector is very robust. We saw some numbers of cost from real estate from
Abu Dhabi
ORG
. It was very good. We expecting very very
And I think overall outlook for the real estate sector is very robust. We saw some numbers of cars from real estate from
Abu Dhabi
ORG
. It was very good and we expecting very very solid and profitable numbers from
MR
GPE
and
Amada
GPE
as well. We've given back a great deal of the war premium. We've talked about this consistently in
New Orleans
GPE
. I'm reading more notes that are talking
about $80
MONEY
than they are
about $130
MONEY
.
Dennis Gartman
PERSON
. However, says, you know, be careful. Look at the back That's with a smart footprint of money will be and he thinks that we've seen the lows in the oil market And that we're gonna trade higher from here. It it backdrops a great deal of our risk sentiment in markets for the clients that you talk to. So you are you hear more people on the bar side than they are on the bull side. What what are the clients saying to you? I don't think that people are on the best. I like the market is totally addressing the demands out of the equation because of global Yeah. But the the supply side is totally unaddressed. It's totally. I mean the fact remains that
UAE
GPE
and
Saudi
NORP
beyond these
two
CARDINAL
countries. Doesn't have anyone else to add barrels to the market at
the end of the day
DATE
and and global oil emergency stock or or the lowest in
the last 30 years
DATE
. So, I think there's a lot this lack of this this lack of supply Is actually not in the price of oil. The risk premium is not there and the price of oil which is why we think there's a stronger case for higher oil prices in a medium term.
Egypt
GPE
is also on your radar. We're counting down to a rate decision on
August 18
DATE
. So, that's
later this week
DATE
They have a lot of catching up to do. The currency does have a lot to to deliver as well. How does this play out strategically? I don't think they're gonna increase rates right now although they probably have to do it sometime sometime
this year
DATE
given where inflation is but we haven't seen very high inflation numbers for
the month of July
DATE
But overall
Egypt
GPE
we are not very keen on it the on the credit side it's down
16%
PERCENT
yesterday
DATE
we can weak
EGP
ORG
a higher inflation totally a challenging external Doesn't both well on the credit story nor on the iconic story for now. Okay. On that red decision on
30
CARDINAL
you never know they could always surprise us at each
Andrew Sackerin
PERSON
director of investments over at
Shua
ORG
as a management I guess
this morning
TIME
on
the Middle East
LOC
markets and the
Iramco
ORG
first
ORDINAL
reaction this is
Bloomberg Single
PERSON
market that over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear. It wants to go higher. It got a little spooked by the idea that due political potentials are rising. Economic policy symposium. Only on
Bloomberg
GPE
television and radio
Only on
Bloomberg Let's
PERSON
check in on these
Middle East
LOC
markets now with our activities reporter for
Albarrahi
ORG
. She joins us for a little bit of a dive into some of the earnings. We've had a ram kill. We've had a reaction on that stop price
yesterday
DATE
but we've also had the
Darwall
ORG
group itself. What are the numbers show there? Well with the the net income
over 20%
PERCENT
a year on
year
DATE
which perhaps isn't a surprise we have seen trading
Normalize
ORG
in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
especially from the
2020
DATE
levels but it seems that the market still expected a slightly better set of numbers because the stock fell
just about one
CARDINAL
.
Seven
CARDINAL
Yesterday
DATE
but I think it really does show the picture in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
that we're not necessarily in that boom that we've seen over
the last couple of years
DATE
in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
where the market was get hand and double digit returns In
the high 30%
PERCENT
as well as a lot of retail traders as well as foreign investors coming in and of course the IPO is there themselves are starting to slow Earnings going forward. Speaking of some of the fees and some of the companies beginning to trade what's on
New York
GPE
right there?
Today
DATE
we A new IPO in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
rather than new debut that's not the water coming in with a they raised
about 110 1 million dollars
MONEY
and they're listing and in the again there's that more of that you utility play that we've seen with aqua power and so on but I think what Thing here is the debuts that we've had in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
have been mixed so far they haven't been that steady performance of a stocks soaring in you know again handing
100%
PERCENT
returns over
First couple weeks
DATE
of trading alone. So, we'll see how this company more of a smaller one but how that will perform and what that tells us about the market. Recovery and some of those names what what is behind that and maybe we've had this risk on rally globally in equities which everybody seems to be decrying so it took us through the
Israeli
NORP
story well absolutely is there is really stocks it's no secret that they do tend to follow
US
GPE
It's higher but looking at the fundamental factors we had the ceasefire
early last week
DATE
which had certainly boosted sentiment stocks had sword at
the start of last week
DATE
with the index actually erasing losses for
the year
DATE
. It's
About three
CARDINAL
. Five% on
the year
DATE
and we've had for example a
Bank of America
ORG
upgrade for
Teva
ORG
I really heavy member on the TA
35
CARDINAL
as boosting the stock and we've had a couple of Such as the airlines as well as
Amdock
PERSON
's them to they Estimates and they've supported the index going forward. You for some of those important points. That's a highway there. We still have much more to come equity futures in the
US
GPE
called lower by
about a fifth
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. This is Do you see that coming
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority.
It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse Portfolio You know a portfolio for generally speaking for most investors with would make sense because at some stage you want market will make a comeback. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a base case. It's still makes a lot of sense. And I actually think they're increasing it pre dramatically at the moment is is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your return because
60 40
DATE
as I mentioned has been a challenging portfolio construction that explore your to have. Fundamental tenants of the investing world over the course of
decades
DATE
is
60404
DATE
.
Bloomberg Guester
PERSON
weighing in whether or not it's dead
three quarters
CARDINAL
of people surveyed still see the strategy outperforming inflation over
the next 10 years
DATE
Let's get to the
UK
GPE
now where the main opposition labor party has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's windfall tax that's on oil and gas companies saying the proceeds should be used to fund the total freeze on energy bills over the winter Set out to our expert on the subject that's
Leanne Garrett
PERSON
students from
London
GPE
Good morning good morning man it's Of all the soaring cost of living crisis here in the
UK
GPE
just dominate so many of the front pages this
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
and I'm gonna Off with the guardian which basically says
Kier Star
PERSON
was gonna give a speech a little bit later on today we can expect it at
about 11 o'clock
TIME
and what he's gonna say is he wants a On this energy price cap and this is gonna help family significantly and he's also gonna call for an eight 1 billion lb windfall tax on the energy companies here in the
UK
GPE
so that all to come this afternoon he is confirm Under his The energy price cap will be frozen at the current level it is now and it is expected to go up in
October
DATE
80%
PERCENT
rise taking the average household bill to
3600
CARDINAL
lb but that would not go ahead under these pants so saving families about a 1000 lb a month which is significant At the moment and the 29 1 billion lb plan that you're outline this afternoon is something that is putting immense pressure on the
two
CARDINAL
people to be the next conservative And the next prime minister as the
Times
ORG
newspaper has a poll out
this morning
TIME
from
Ugov
GPE
which says
three quarters
CARDINAL
of conservative voters are backing this plan that
Kiastama
LOC
is gonna announce
later today
TIME
and what does that mean for
Liz Trust Rishi Sunak
ORG
going forward. We're speaking about battle whoever the incumbent is at
number 10
CARDINAL
they're gonna have a heck of a time with unions and not just a unions but wigs and guides I'm talking about the baristas the dog workers the railway workers So again this is gonna be
a week
DATE
of pretty big strikes in the
UK
GPE
. You're so right so not only is the new prime minister gonna have to deal with this cost of living crisis they also gonna Deal with the strikes that we've seen in the
UK
GPE
and this is really been dubbed
this summer
DATE
of discontent hasn't it
Madison
PERSON
you said we've heard this term loads of times throughout
the last few months
DATE
and it All over inflation and pay and the cost of living so on
Saturday
DATE
we did see more train drivers strike and this really affected so many people it affected people going to football games and also Affected people coming into the country tourists and this is because the unions are saying that they're workers want more money to live because it train drivers are just not being paid enough at the And coming up on
Wednesday
DATE
we have another strike by
the RMT union
ORG
so on.
Play of course
Aussie's Diamond
ORG
and and the
Yan
PERSON
eh is a little bit more of a haven
this morning
TIME
. I'll tell you what institutions are also doing. They are buying cryptocurrencies again. It comes just as retail began to get cold feet. So basically This partnership between
Black Rock
LOC
and Coinbase it makes it easier for institutional investors to get involved and so the narrative is back
Bitcoin
PERSON
added
20%
PERCENT
of
the past month
DATE
Ether advanced
80%
PERCENT
Major institutional investors making a move currently we're looking at Bitcoin up
about two
CARDINAL
. Two% the coverage continues from
Dubai
GPE
London
GPE
and the rest of the world this is
Bloomberg Apple
ORG
fans will likely have to wait a little bit longer than expected to get their hands on
Apple
ORG
's
first
ORDINAL
mixed reality headset to compete with menace oculus the
iPhone
ORG
maker had plans to reveal the new device as early as
this June
DATE
at
WDC
ORG
and then release it
later this year
DATE
. But the
Overheating
PERSON
camera technology in a new operating system that means that an intro is early as
the end of this year
DATE
or
early next year
DATE
with a wider consumer release in
2023
DATE
is more likely. The headset is plan to have super fast M
one
CARDINAL
pro light chips immersive audio and speaker technology and capabilities for media consumption gaming and communication the headset will be pricey over and probably cost well north of $
100
MONEY
. Developers to write software The
first
ORDINAL
headset however is only beginning for apples ambitions in The company is planning a standalone augmented reality headset as a follow up later of
this decade
DATE
. I'm
Mark German
PERSON
this is power on. This is
Bloomberg Daybreak European
PERSON
in
Dubai
GPE
with the stories that set your agenda Production miss the forecast
532 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day. That is the
daily
DATE
profit of the oil producer
Saudia Ranco
PERSON
in
the second quarter
DATE
. The most ever by any listed company. Plus
The most ever by any listed company Plus
Taiwan
GPE
Redox a
US
GPE
congressional delegation arise in
Taipei
GPE
after a visit by
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
spurred
China
GPE
to launch its most aggressive military drills in
decades
DATE
Warm welcome to the show are you spoke by bar market rally Reading
Michael Burry's
PERSON
tweet are you listening to
Dennis Gartman
PERSON
either way this is an equity rally which is being much maligned and deeply questioned I've just had a conversation with
HSBC
ORG
let's have a look at the equities we are coming off very much on the back of this trifecta of missus in the
China
GPE
data which we will dig deeper into in just a moment Den It won't last much longer. He or she who loses the least will be the winner. Stop to lower
this morning
TIME
. Now is that done by
quarter
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. There's a quantum of bad news which is coming in across the
Classes
PERSON
this morning from
China
GPE
. Let's talk about the cross to ask it wet because you've got this lack of belief in the equity narrative. But to the bond market and the oil market, the oil market is done by at
one%
ORG
this morning
TIME
. Again, could I run come back into the fold if they get the sanctions lifted that they wanted. There's talk of that in the market. That's pressing on the supply site.
10 year
DATE
use
Rising
GPE
this morning
TIME
. Again, there's a real split in the camp weather. We'll get
50 or
CARDINAL
75
CARDINAL
basis points. This swap market says
60
CARDINAL
basis points at the
September
DATE
meeting. There's a long way to run until the
September
DATE
meeting. The headlines by the way are the biggest sellers of
10 year paper last week
DATE
. Bitcoin. I just thought we threw in a little bit of bitty. Up by
two and a quarter of two
DATE
and Equity Least 2018 in
China
GPE
so the underbelly of
China
GPE
is malevolent one could say. In terms of sentiment and the current can bring his very latest on that I reported her standing around the world
Steven Suchinski
PERSON
has the very latest on the
Iranco
NORP
earnings
Einhorn
PERSON
we'll talk us through the lines on
Taiwan
GPE
and
Jules
GPE
has ever will wrap up the
Asian
NORP
market session with rake cuts and toxic data. So let's get to
China
GPE
and
the Central Bank
ORG
I'm expecting those interest rates to ramp up support for the economy way down by COVID. Lockdowns and a deepening property slump. For more let's bring our chief
Asia
LOC
And the current. So, the cavalry have arrived but are they sufficiently armed and equipped? Weakness across the board minus in in
China
GPE
's economy according to this data
July
DATE
remember was expected to be the recovery month instead we saw figures for retail sales and industrial output investment All falling more signs of weakness in the property market in terms of new home sales and prices. I only mentioned of course all of that
four
CARDINAL
essential bank to take eh to cut its key interest rate for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
January
DATE
in a sign that shows you just how concerned authorities About the state of the economy right now. There was some modest good news on the unemployment front to survey jobless rate ticked lower to
five
CARDINAL
.
Four
CARDINAL
from
five
CARDINAL
.
Five
CARDINAL
but within that use unemployment actually rose again. It's hit a new record. So when you take it all together the number of show that the recovery in
China
GPE
appears to have Are already it's clearly crying out for more policies support and there's 1 o'clock economist said
today
DATE
he describe the whole pictures looking quite alarming now as
China
GPE
had the deeper into
the second half of this year
DATE
Anna thank you very much and the current our
North Asia
LOC
correspondent on the data to study
Iramco
ORG
as I said it posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
just a profit of any listed company ever it's a staggering tag to have higher prices and production help boost another
Steven Suchinski
PERSON
is with
Stephen
PERSON
I mean these are blistering numbers. I don't think anybody's surprised that they were so good. I think maybe some are surprised that there wasn't any salivating extra dividend. Yeah, you know, when you look at the other big energy giants around the world, they're having a similar giant boost and prices because oil is expensive. And to do because of that,
You know, when you look at the other big energy giants around the world, they're having a similar giant boost and prices because oil is expensive. And to do because of that, they're increasing their dividends to to the folks who own their shares. But if
Audi Ramco
PRODUCT
did not do that, Instead, they're gonna try to reduce their debt. They're gonna use that money to invest in future production. Which is more because they they look over
the next decade
DATE
, oil demand is going to increase according to them. They say that the energy transition aside demand for oil and oil like products will continue to increase when you invest that money to boost our output, potentially from
12 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
a day to
13 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
a day it's one of the things that they have been looking at it's going to be very interesting going forward whether there is more windfall this could be the peak for
Saudi
NORP
Aria Ramco
PERSON
profits unless oil prices jump back up to where they were
a few months ago
DATE
Steven
PERSON
, thank you very much.
Steven Stachinski
PERSON
, with the very latest on the
Aramcoat
PERSON
numbers. A
US
GPE
congressional delegation has landed in
Taiwan
GPE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit. Testing
China
GPE
's reaction after the house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
went
earlier this month
DATE
Bruce There's no Real Escalation online as far as I can see or is this the calm before the storm on this delegation's arrival in
Taiwan
GPE
who are they and just high up the let's say the pack in order are they? Well I think that's an important point Very few people is high in the pecking order in the
US
GPE
of course than
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
who's the speaker and that was the
first
ORDINAL
trip by a speaker in
a quarter of a century
DATE
. This trip on the other hand is led by
Ed Markey
PERSON
who's senior senator from
Massachusetts
GPE
along with several
congress
ORG
people. But the visits by
congress Congressman
ORG
senators to
Taiwan
GPE
are not that unusual there was a visit
last late last year
DATE
by Senator
Bob Menendez
PERSON
chairman of the foreign relations committee so up until
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
visit
China
GPE
's reaction has been to express his pleasure but Haven't Lifted, lifted things in the way that they did following the visit by the speaker of the house. So, we'll see what happens this time. Send it to
Marky
PERSON
and the others in the delegation are are meeting
today
DATE
with
Taiwani
ORG
's president signing one and with other officials, they're also meeting with some business leaders. The response we have so far from the
Chinese
NORP
Obviously displeased interesting they've don't accept the argument that well of
the United States
GPE
we have separation of powers there's the president executive branch there's
congress
ORG
legislative branch and their co equals
Chinese
NORP
statement is there is separation of powers in
the United States
GPE
but Power is part of the broader national power representing
the United States
GPE
and the
Chinese
NORP
spokesperson vowed what he called resolute countermeasures following this latest visit. Bruce, thank you very much. Let's see what the reaction at holds for the world.
Two
CARDINAL
Asian
NORP
ambassadors, they're grappling with disappointing
Chinese
NORP
data. A surprise stimulus from the PBOC,
Juliet
PERSON
,
Sally
PERSON
, has put the market reaction together for as jewels. I mean, it's torn, aren't we between the data and let's say
Delivery
PERSON
from the PBOC. Yeah, indeed, man. I said also what it means for the banks
next week
DATE
, will they cut their loan prime rates too, but a lot of analysts saying, how much further can any reduction actually help to stimulate the economy too when you've already got rates at or near record lows? What we are seeing though is a big rally in the bond market on
China
GPE
's
10 year
DATE
yield dropping
About seven
CARDINAL
basis points and this is one of the biggest moves that we have seen since the onset of the pandemic. We're also seeing this play out into the currency market. Let's flip the board and have a look at what we're seeing with the offshore you won and the Aussie dollar both weaker against the
Greenback
PERSON
on the back of this disappointing data that we had that ended alluded to you. You've now got the
Aussie
GPE
. Just holding under
Broadly
PRODUCT
though we have seen that stimulus in terms of the PBOC rate cut for
that 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
and of course the
7 day
DATE
reverse repo give a little bit of stimulus to or support I should say
Asian
NORP
investors but it's really been driven by what you're seeing in
Japan
GPE
.
Part for
that 1 year
DATE
MLF
ORG
and of course the
7 day
DATE
reverse repo give it a little bit of stimulus to of support I should say to
Asian
NORP
investors but it's really been driven by what you're seeing in
Japan
GPE
the NK 225 and outperformer
today
DATE
and that index man is close to erasing it's losses for
2022
DATE
Jill
PERSON
thank you very much very succinct to the point currently under pressure coming up on the show as
Jules
PERSON
mentioned the
Chinese
NORP
economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in
July
DATE
we're gonna dive into those numbers what does it mean for the mackerel look ahead of the fed minutes
this week
DATE
and it's a good day is in the house she's the equity strategist for
Emirates MVP
ORG
is she part of a Rally. For an energy price cap For the country facing its worst cost of living crisis in
decades
DATE
more on the story right here on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Metaverse. Immersive experiences that have a sense of active presence.
One 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
market by
the end of this decade
DATE
. And whether you know it or not you'll probably be working there in the future. Removing into a world where we're gonna be interacting with computers with our bodies. Definitely trippy. I think the adoption curve is gonna be slow. It's weird. Thing right now. Oh, look at you. If you have no legs. Why did the biggest names in business choose
Bloomberg
PERSON
? That is a great question. Great question. Great question. It's day break
Europe
LOC
your
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
kicker for risk.
Chinese
NORP
economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in
July
DATE
. Fresh COVID outbreaks across the country.
Wayne
PERSON
on the consumer and business spending. Estimate earlier
China Central Bank
ORG
took a surprise step cutting its key rate for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
January
DATE
was waiting for
the 5 minutes
TIME
to hit the tape
later this week
DATE
May reveal clues on this size of the next rate hike a lot has changed of course since the last rate hike I need a good is the head of equity strategy at
Emirates Ambity
ORG
I need a good to have you with me
this morning
TIME
good morning I don't know if I read one bullish note over
the weekend
DATE
Dennis Gartman
PERSON
wants to cut risk at the arch chrome eh in diamond Really scary tweets talking about
the year 2000
DATE
talking about
Anron
ORG
talking about
911
CARDINAL
it's all bearish rhetoric and yet this is a darn hard rally to I convince to you this equity market rally will hold globally let's start there. So minus what we have been seeing
this whole year
DATE
is rallies and pullbacks and I think this is what was expected when you have a rising rate regime you have fears of you know growth slowing as well
Use and pullbacks and I think this is what was expected when you have a rising rate regime. You have fears of you know growth slowing as well as of course the supply chain constraints that we are seeing. So this current rally that you have seen and from
June 17
DATE
which was about the law you've seen a
10%
PERCENT
rally Global equities
about 17%
PERCENT
and the SNP 500. Now, of course, every single investment house is trying to figure out, you know, where the SNP 500 is going to end
this year
DATE
. Ring there. Where are we gonna be at
the end of the year
DATE
? Estimate is
441 25
CARDINAL
and that was based on a reasonable price to earnings of
18
CARDINAL
times earnings growth of
10%
PERCENT
. We are not you know able to
Europe
LOC
come most houses are in the state of
Luxe
GPE
because earnings have surprised to the upside. So we talk of recession risk but Going to see that recession
this year
DATE
unlikely because equities usually lead economic growth. Talking about economic growth. Of course, we just had these
three
CARDINAL
big misses from
China
GPE
and people are talking about, you know, gloom and doom. There is
one
CARDINAL
chart that we've created and I think it's quite informative. Let's have a look at it. It's the aggregate financing. I need it. You can't spend. It does your production. COVID clothes you done. I can normalise all of those misses. Right. But what worries me is when I see a credit number so obliterated as this in
China
GPE
. Is this a warning on growth for the world? Absolutely
China
GPE
has been an important part of adding to GDP growth in
the last decade
DATE
in
the last 25 years
DATE
.
Today
DATE
when we are seeing this
China
GPE
slowdown is going to impact geography is more like
Europe
LOC
which are larger trading partners. Let's say let's not the
US
GPE
so much Also what we have done for
China
GPE
is we took our overweight off just about a month ago We have been in a fluctuating between to
China
GPE
removing it because everybody has always been conveyance that
Asia
LOC
is the growth path forward. How do you change? I mean, are you honestly changing as often as that in terms of your conviction? Is it that It's not
Every 324 months
DATE
, I won't say
every month
DATE
but we keep thinking that you know
China
GPE
is going to provide that upside and then you have
China
GPE
grocery down, you have the
SEC
ORG
cracking down, you've got many
China
GPE
listed companies in the
US
GPE
now, you know, being taken off the
US
GPE
listings, you know, the government, entities It's like dating in
Dubai
GPE
. Holes and and disappointment. No in terms of valuation and attraction. You're talking about the S and
B 54100
PRODUCT
.
Taka
PERSON
's had the most blistering rally, hasn't it? So, the whole gross narrative has I was there been refused up what
50%
PERCENT
from the lows that it met in
January
DATE
. I'm talking about the Naz. Yes. From the lows in to It's hot is it? No, sorry. I'm I shouldn't be so subjective. Is it difficult for you to be bullish on growth? In and not finished fed hiking cycle We have never actually stopping bullish on growth. So, I don't think that anything new. So, part of our, you know, equity strategy, a calls have always been around Been never ever took the overweight of technology all that we said was look at select subsectors and we have in fact a huge call right now on electric vehicles seeing the global warming is going seeing you know the new bill that's been passed in the
US
GPE
in centres being given whether it's
Europe
LOC
so while you have oil prices going up
Supply
PERSON
is becoming an issue. We think that focus on electric vehicle is going to go up more. Nothing has changed in terms of companies, adopting technology. Now, I know you don't name names as it were in terms of what you're buying but let's just extract it. Look, I have, I had lucid motors on
the other day
DATE
. Right. Based inside the
Arabian
NORP
, a lot of the headwinds is is the the access to Yeah. Cars the batteries at
Orange Deep
LOC
. Commodities is is it the
Cars the batteries at Orendee producing. Commodities The supply chain into that is that how you dissect that major bullish call on
EV
ORG
. Absolutely, we look at the manufacturers both light vehicles as well as trucks. We look at the back manufacturers, you look at the Of lithium. You look at the people who are putting up the infrastructure. So, it's a mix. I wouldn't Economic research teams outlook which is an oil at
about $115
MONEY
you know this year so I think we're gonna keep fluctuating on that again you know a Below 100 right now but with what's happening in
Europe
LOC
and
Ukraine
GPE
and you know what
Russia
GPE
supply of gas. It won't be surprising if oil does bring back a little bit in in
winter
DATE
. Okay. To
115
CARDINAL
. Or you're always good with the sport. On on the course. I need a thank you very much. Rolling. Rolling with the punches. I need a cup to that. Ahead of that could eat strategy for
Emirates MVP
ORG
. My guest on the market. It's coming up on the show.
Seven
CARDINAL
major
Wall St Banks
ORG
reporting. They have begun offering to facilitate trades on We take you through it right here on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. When
US
GPE
inflation numbers are released. Terminal speed. When do we get back to boring inflation Economy like
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority. There is an epic saying in
Italy
GPE
when it comes to family generations that the
first
ORDINAL
generation creates the
second
ORDINAL
generation expands and the
third
ORDINAL
generation destroys And that's almost what happened in the
Gucci
PRODUCT
story. Now experience about The
Gucci
PERSON
family was the strength but also the weakness of the label. The situation became dire with
Gucci
PERSON
's finances. They were not able to pay salaries. They were not able to pay suppliers.
Gucci
PERSON
's really teetering on the brink at this stage. So that's what we're doing. Portfolio. You know a portfolio for generally speaking for most investors would would make sense because at some stage your bond market will make a campaign. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go in
60 40
DATE
but I
Or generally speaking for most investors would would make sense because at some stage your bond market will make a campaign. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a base case. It's still makes a lot of sense. Probably close to final
10
CARDINAL
. I actually think they're increasing it pretty dramatic to you at the moment is is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your return because
60 40
DATE
as I mentioned has been a challenging portfolio construction exposure to have Let's get the first word news with
Jules
PERSON
. She's with me in
Singapore
GPE
.
Juliet Sally
PERSON
. Hey man it's water levels in a key way point on the river are expected to steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
adding to
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch many bargains can't transit past the market a point west of
Frankfurt
GPE
where the water level is below
40 cm
QUANTITY
According to government data it's already at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to
30 cm
QUANTITY
today The
UK
GPE
's opposition labor party has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's win for tax on oil and gas company's to find a total freeze on energy bills over the
winter
DATE
the plan to be announced by leader
Kia Starba
PERSON
later today we'll put renewed pressure on the government to act analyst predict the
Annual
DATE
household energy bill could top
4200
CARDINAL
lb by
January
DATE
. Is starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed did a lecture in
New York AP
GPE
has quoted his agent saying the author is now on the road to recovery
Russia
GPE
is said to have been removed from a ventilator on
Sunday
DATE
and is now able to talk the author of the satanic versus suffered serious injuries on
Friday
DATE
after being stabb Multiple times shortly after taking the stage. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick tape powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries this is
Bluebird Manus
FAC
.
Jill
PERSON
thank you very much
Julie
PERSON
. Latest headlines. So several major Wall St banks have begun to offer to facilitate trades in
Russian
NORP
recent days
DATE
. That's according to a report from
Reuters
ORG
. Eh citing the banks. Documents and unidentified people. Let's get a Contacts around. There's
Paul Dobson
PERSON
is with me. I saw the headline, Paul. And immediately in the chat, we were discussing, wow, okay. So, we've got sanctions on going but
Russia
GPE
bomb trading starting again. Can you just square that up for me? Yeah, very much. So, so, it appears, you know, this is from, from, from where we understand talking to the banks and from the
Royce
ORG
's reporter as well, that this is all about facilitating closeout trades for customers that have been stuck with that
Russian
NORP
bond position for for
several months
DATE
already, you know, either long, wanting to offload the more short And you know you couldn't needing to close out that trade as well so it seems that there's been some shift The permissions that are being granted by the
US
GPE
government among others in order for those banks to come in act as brokers, act as the middleman, to their to to be able to get those kind of parties that are that are stuck in these situations back to back to level peggings. So it's not about bringing back speculative trading in
Russian
NORP
bonds. It's not about reinvigorating the market or anything like that. They're purely about kind You know In the customer's interest to try to get them out of the situation that they found themselves in when the sanctions came down
earlier in the year
DATE
. I suppose the question is what's in it for the banks? I know obviously writing tickets, earning commission, been able to probably I can only imagine salivating spreads given that this is a distressed cellar and a tough market with very few options on where to go to so I can only imagine this is just monster spreads. I guess there's some element of that but more than anything else, it seems like, you know, from from the comments that we have from
Jeffrey
PERSON
's
last week
DATE
. It's about, it's about working on behalf of the customer, right? And doing them a favor in a way, helping them out of this situation. So, about that retention of customer relations cuz the banks know that ultimately is not great for their reput To be seen dealing with the
Russian
NORP
bonds are at a time when you know a lot of a lot of the market is kind of untouchable but it's really about you know making sure that the customers can can can flatten their positions at the very least and come out of it. So I don't think we'll be thinking that the the broker dealers are are looking to make a huge amount of money.
About, you know, making sure that the customers can can can flatten their positions at the very least and come out of it. So, I don't think we'll be thinking that the the broke Adidas are looking to make a huge amount of money in commission out of this in the end but more about kind of you know, being there for the customer that
hour
TIME
of need. On
Thursday
DATE
I suppose I go back to back to basic principles which is distressed sellers and I've yet to meet a generous broker in my life
Paul
PERSON
thank you very much
Paul Dobson
PERSON
having been one
Paul Dobbs
PERSON
and thank you very much with the very latest there on the situation with reducing your
Russian
NORP
exposure quick snapshot
HSBC
ORG
will with me
this morning
TIME
. They said, look, they look a global
LEI
ORG
's leading the economic indicators. And the LEI of the
LA
GPE
eyes for them is broadening. There is a quantum of misery Across the world as
three
CARDINAL
major pieces of data in
China
GPE
Miss Industrial Production retail sales and fixed investment also the credit impulse is declining so this darkening
China
GPE
today
DATE
and get the latest on the story on
the Ray Cuts
FAC
by the PBOC this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
In this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather Will explore the science behind the recent heat wave. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills Until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. Solutions for the planet to mitigate and adapt. Government to lead on this and we need government to And stop sending things out I'm
Kaylee Lynes
PERSON
from
Bloomberg
ORG
's Global headquarters in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
airing
this weekend
DATE
on
Bloom TV
ORG
quit take ants online Hey Facebook Hey Facebook It's they break you up on men's granny in
Dubai
GPE
with the stories that set your agenda. Miss the forecast And bond use slump.
532 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day. That is the
daily
DATE
profit of the oil producer
Ramco
NORP
in
the second quarter
DATE
. After visit by
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
spurring
China
GPE
to launch its most aggressive military strikes military drills in
decades
DATE
. Warm welcome to the show quick snapshot of equity markets drifting lower on the back of this missing the
Chinese
NORP
data
Drills in
decades
DATE
. Warm welcome to the show quick snapshot of equity markets drifting lower on the back of this missing the
Chinese
NORP
data
HSBC
ORG
warning this is an ominous sign for global markets in terms of the slow down the propensity for slow down around the world so there is a definite Across these markets.
January
DATE
lows at a great deal of skating let's say
Dennis Gartman
PERSON
saying there's Much longer. He or she who loses the least will be the winner. By the way, back of
America
GPE
, the flow show,
US
GPE
stocks took in
11 1 billion dollars
MONEY
last week
DATE
. The biggest in
8 weeks
DATE
. The
Dax
GPE
is up by
quarter
CARDINAL
one% and you're upset for a slightly higher opening. Let me roll it over. Have a quick look at what's going on with the barn markets.
Richmond
GPE
fed present,
Thomas Barkin
PERSON
, still on certain About whether you go
50 or
CARDINAL
75
CARDINAL
basis points but certainly that
100
CARDINAL
basis point narrative seems to have been exploded off the market use rise
HSBC
ORG
again say to us
this morning
TIME
on this rising years add to develop market bond exposure
9 weeks
DATE
time by over
one%
ORG
and iron or reflecting the unease or disease on the
Chinese
NORP
Economy are done by
1:74%
PERCENT
. I can tell you the iron or is gonna lose altitude. They still makers making the least amount of steel since
2018
DATE
. A bitcoin gets a bites. Will it last?
24 1000
CARDINAL
. You know what? Call it
25 1000
CARDINAL
for cash. It's up
two%
ORG
. No. The PBOC unexpectedly cut its key interest rates. This to ramp up the support for the economy way down by COVID lockdowns and a deepening property slump for more let's bring in our chief
Asia
LOC
economics correspondent it is end the current and eh this Term lending facility cut. You know what that was the reaction someone would say to to a backdrop that's tough. How tough is it in
China
GPE
at the moment given the date that you've looked through? It looks to be pretty tough minus a weakness across the board in
July
DATE
retail sandals down more than expected industrial production down more than expected even though exports are holding up Investment weaker, especially private sector investment on the housing side of things, new home sales, new home prices, housing investment, all weaker and that's why
the Central Bank
ORG
took the surprising decision that I did
this morning
TIME
to lower one of its
Key
LOC
interest rate really hadn't made that move since
January
DATE
and while that moved by
the Central Bank
ORG
in and over itself isn't going to be a game changer because the problem in
China
GPE
isn't the cost of boring per se it does speak to the how serious the authorities
Reviewing
PERSON
things right now that they are pulling these levers. I'm trying to put a floor under demand. Where they can. So the other we take away would say is all of us data was weak but the reasons especially considering is because
July
DATE
was meant to be
the good month
DATE
.
July
DATE
was meant to be
the month
DATE
when things pick up a bit of a momentum again. They
third quarter
DATE
was supposed to be better than
the second quarter
DATE
and all the rest But of course this now underscore is just how much pressure
China
GPE
's economy is actually under. I'm just getting some notes into the inbox from from
Martin Malone
PERSON
or add oral basically saying
Next
ORG
rate hike in the
US
GPE
you're gonna have this crossover between
Chinese
NORP
rates over
US
GPE
rates and we haven't seen that in
a decade
DATE
and that may well have AA big currency impact but the policy response that you've seen so far given what
Martin
PERSON
is saying here do you think it's going to be a again accelerated Accelerated easing in these key interest rates I'm alive. Well, this is the big talking about manners. How will the authorities respond from here? You mentioned essential bank side of things. A lot of economists said
today
DATE
that move with the
MLF
ORG
is really more but optics like I say that's not going to turn the economy around in in over Give me what's happening real estate. Hm. And giving what's happening with of course COVID oh. The reason to have been reluctant to cut interest rates is to your point that they didn't want to accelerate the flow of money leaving the country,
the whole year
DATE
, advantage story over the
US
GPE
has gone with the
Fed
ORG
heading in the opposite direction that's downward pressure on you on. It means money out of
China
GPE
. They didn't really I feel that I'm fire but it looks like they might have little option now give them move they take
this morning
TIME
I think the bigger focus will remain going forward though less than essential bank and more on the government eh will they delve into their bag of tricks to do
two
CARDINAL
unveil more borrowing more spending
Will it remain going for though less unattended bank and more on the government eh will they delve into their bag of tricks to do
two
CARDINAL
unveil more boring more spending on infrastructure especially a local government level or Eh so I think a lot of folks will be on perhaps a real estate sector and of course a local
Borrowing
LOC
and spending. Well we'll put those questions to my next guest in just a moment for the global economy though and
HSBC
ORG
we're with me
Max Katner
PERSON
was with me a little bit earlier on
Saying
LOC
look this is a nominous sign the
LA
GPE
eyes of the
LA
GPE
eyes for him Are all beginning to trend lower. It feels like that really when you look at the global economy man it's a standard at the moment is really the
US
GPE
economy and in particular the
US
GPE
jobs market because
China
GPE
is certainly not proving to be a dynamite for global growth the way it has been it's not proving to be a dynamical for a recovery in the way it Pass global downturns not only are we seeing this slowdown in
China
GPE
but as we just discussed the authorities aren't coming to the rescue with the major support either and there had been a view by the way that
China
GPE
Be something of a buffer for global growth could put a floor under things but now of course I've used change pretty quickly
this morning
TIME
when people see the scale of the downturn I mean
ANZ
PERSON
talking about what looks like a pretty alarming a slowdown in
China
GPE
's economy for non about suggest
China
GPE
will be Much of a pillar for global growth going forward and the other side of it by the way is weakening external demand for
Chinese
NORP
goods. A lot of producers and manufacturers in
China
GPE
have been worried and complaining for
some months
DATE
now that their order books are looking weaker. So it looks like the external story might come off to boil. Take the shine off
Tray
ORG
boom just at the same time that the domestic story is obviously a crumbling on a weight of the property code and I cover oh so when when you take it all together it's hard to say that
China
GPE
will be any kind of a pillar for a globally normal recovery in the way it has been in past downturns. Okay certainly it sounds pretty gloom laden that reflection
Eda
PERSON
thank you very much and the current
Bloomberg
NORP
Chief
North Asia
LOC
correspondent joining me now is my guest on this
Jinny Yan
PERSON
Chief
China
GPE
economist at
ICBC standard bank
ORG
two
CARDINAL
economist back Surely we will have a different opinion
Jinny
PERSON
good to have you with me Use language there from one of the hoses and said saying that this data was alarming and it's slow down A are you alarmed and B could it be if I'm optimistic could it be a near term low in the data
Wolf
PERSON
good morning and thank you for having me. I think I'm usually very optimistic but obviously this set of data does really highlight this severity of the challenges ahead particularly for a
China
GPE
second
ORDINAL
largest economy and Also a global consumer of commodity. So clearly there are some sentiment there to be aware of. However the contact is very important. That's where we agree with
ND
ORG
your previous speaker. In that Given to domestic and external challenges the current set of data does really highlight that it's not really just about the fact that
China
GPE
is slowing but expectations are very high for that quick recovery that we used to seeing in
China
GPE
but that might not come as quickly as in previous Cycles. And and that's the risk isn't it? You know a target no longer a target I
five and a half percent
DATE
growth from the authorities. It is guidance Given the data that you've just seen and aggregate financing at the lowest level put it into the GTV library aggregate financing is at the lowest level since
2017
DATE
and that's maybe the more worrying point because because they that the alpha for credit and the system is waning And will it cross over into
2023
DATE
? Well the question here really is just how much this oh COVID policy will continue how much longer We know it's
Well the question here really is just how much this oh COVID policy will continue how much longer we know it's here to stay for a while and that's why we're having this uncertainty particularly in terms of outlook for the economy And that's why manufacturers and also services sector are Wait pessimistic when it comes to boosting their production. On the retail side particularly that could domestic consumption picture is particularly worrying. And couple with the unemployment situation we had another record number in terms of youth unemployment this month Again. And so lots of data sets there to really keep policy makers really concerned about the outlook but also
Us
GPE
hope that probably a basket of measures will be there to to really boost sentiment and and we're ready talked about it. The PBOC this morning in terms of that unexpected the short term rate cut is really a signal of what's to So potentially more demand boosting policies to come I'm really we've had a huge amount of credit and fiscal impulse and that will really be with us for
the next 6 months
DATE
but Enough that is really the question. On that fiscal leather that they pulled I know that you you believe that there will have a front loading of special bond issues is that going to be an integral part of that front loading? Already seeing record project starts so we're seeing really the peak of those special bond instruments is actually been spent into investment but it Coming quick enough I think in
June
DATE
we saw really early signs of that recovery but that's on the back of End the
Shanghai
GPE
lockdown but we're having other cities entering a small size lockdown. So, that is really weighing on sentiment. Both consumer household as well as businesses. So, really to get
Suspending
PERSON
. You need to have some level certainty. And obviously that's a dynamic COVID oh policy. It's not helping matters. So I would expect that more demand bursting measures will be outlined in
the coming weeks
DATE
and
months
DATE
. Okay well let's see what those what those demand measures are
Jinny
GPE
thank you very much
Jenny Yan
PERSON
chief
China
GPE
economist over at ICBC I wanna reflect on the global market map in terms of the narrative from
Ginny
PERSON
and from
Eda
PERSON
and you can see it very very clearly in the effects column and in the sovereign bong column
Chinese
NORP
government bonds in
China
GPE
Don Bay over
six
CARDINAL
basis points Deviation move in terms of that you are seen an outsize move on that and reciprocated with that drop in yield across the car then
China
GPE
you are seeing the remember offshore etcetera declining as well and the the move by the PBOC A surprise rate cut across the
MLF
ORG
on
the 1 year
DATE
and on the
7 day
DATE
repost you are just seen at the expectation for more managers and what will that do now of course if you hold in on the commodity at
Copper Recovery
ORG
is Ginny is Let's get across to Julia
Sally
PERSON
if I can draw a breath she'll save me let's get into the
first
ORDINAL
word used with chills I got your water levels in a keyway point on
the Rod River
LOC
expected to steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
adding to
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch many bargers can't transit past the marker at a point west of
Frankfurt
GPE
where the water level is below
40 cm
QUANTITY
To government data it is already at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to
30 cm
QUANTITY
today A
US
GPE
congressional delegation landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit they're set to meet with
Taiwanese
NORP
President saying when and other lawmakers the trip risks keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high after how speaking
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
recent To the region.
Japan
GPE
's economy recovered to its pre-pandemic size in
the second quarter
DATE
with growth
China
GPE
High after how speaking
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
recent visit to the region.
Japan
GPE
's economy recovered to its pre-pandemic size in
the second quarter
DATE
with gross picking up after COVID curbs were relaxed GDP grew in an annualized pace of
two
CARDINAL
. Two% below economist median forecast of
two
CARDINAL
. Six% consumer spending which accounts for
more than half
CARDINAL
of Economic output led the growth Will tribute supporting in from Wall St and beyond for
Andrew Jane
PERSON
they can't talk it's And former
Deutsche Bank
ORG
co CEO Death at the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. Been credited with building
Dorture Banks
ORG
investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick tape powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
manus
Jules
PERSON
, thank you very much.
Singapore
GPE
. Coming up on the show. Study Iranco posting the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of any listed company. The details this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. So what's the best investment advice you've ever been given by anybody? Pound interest. The compounding of returns is an incredible miracle of business finance and human existence Everything you learn is additive everyday and if you keep at it and don't quit It's an incredible miracle and it's and it's not just interest it was it was always said about compound interest returns Compound business returns compound human returns They're all very active cuz you'll learn every day and if you keep at it it's very very Super helpful. In your observation of investors, what do you think is the biggest mistake that average investors make selling at the wrong time? And they sell when the prices go down? Yes, or yes. Not keeping. Look, people have conviction Or the investor if they invest for the right reasons that just keep at it.
Ken Griffin
PERSON
is moving both Citadel and Citadel Securities to
Miami
GPE
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Amanda
ORG
It's day break
Europe
LOC
this
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
I manage granny in
Dubai
GPE
we've had the
Sadi Iranco
ORG
numbers posting the biggest
quarterly
DATE
adjust to profit of any listed company ever driven by high crew prices and production meanwhile a
Exchange
ORG
funny shows
Saudi Arabian
NORP
billionaire
Prince Alwali Bentalal
PERSON
invested
more than half
CARDINAL
a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
into
Russian
NORP
firms around the time of
Moscow
GPE
's invasion into
Ukraine Bringing
GPE
our
Middle East
LOC
energy markets reporter
Anzi Depala
PERSON
at returns as fresh from
America
GPE
whole new perspective on the oil markets. How are you? Good to have you back. Good
minutes
TIME
. Thanks. Good to see you again. So, look. Leverage under control production on the other Good news day at
Aramco
ORG
isn't it? Yeah with the oil prices where they've been over
this first half of the year
DATE
. It was clear that this
Leverage under control production on the it's a very good news day at
Iranco
NORP
isn't it? Yeah with the oil prices where they've been over
this first half of the year
DATE
it was clear that this
quarterly
DATE
profit was gonna be huge. We saw that from some of the international oil companies that reported before
Ramco
NORP
and at Ramcos Had some of the biggest profits in the oil industry. So, it was clear that they were gonna have this huge, these huge numbers. They've been slightly beat estimates as well. So, that's also positive news for them. Kept up the dividend and and they are paying that down that some That. Let's remember there's still paying off
Purchase of Sabbak
ORG
the
Saudi
NORP
chemicals producer which they bought from the public investment fund and they're still paying that deal off at because they staggered those payments so they're working on that. They did make an acquisition in
the quarter
DATE
buying
Valvoline
ORG
's fuel business. So, they're expanding in different areas but a lot of that cash is gonna be pumped into Production and that's their their main thing is they're seeking to increase capacity. I mean they're bringing down the gearing which Earlier and she said that the toggle was five%. They got it done to
seven
CARDINAL
. Two%. So this is AA progressively good story Has impact on dividend story. Yeah, they're working on that gearing but they've also kind of taken their foot off the gas on that as well too. Around the time of the
IPO
ORG
and shortly thereafter, they were really focusing on that. As these big numbers started to come in, this
CFO
ORG
in
recent quarters
DATE
has has kind of taken the focus off of that as such an urgent
Matter
PERSON
right now. So, they are working on that but as you said, it's gonna be something gradual as they reduce that debt but they're gonna focus on a lot again on that investment bit and and on keeping
Numbers
ORG
in shape as well man Which is by Prince Wallid His name
Drawers
ORG
, eyeballs, and readership, but this is interesting cos it's a round what he invested in and around the timing of it. Yeah. Send a number of
Russian
NORP
energy companies in
February
DATE
the timing the exact date whether that was before or after the
Russian
NORP
invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
was unclear from the fire lines that we saw but he did put some some money into that along with some other companies so it's a question you know does he still own those securities does he not we we know that Hey So maybe he saw a potential bump there if there was no invasion that the value of these
Russian
NORP
securities would have gone up of course there was the invasion that didn't but we did see
Saddy Arabia
GPE
stand by
Russia
GPE
not really throw them under the bus immediately when allies like the
US
GPE
and the
Europeans
NORP
condemned
Russia
GPE
So there is that kind of link between
Saddy Arabia
GPE
and
Russia
GPE
on that economic link a lot of endless and and we're questioning you know what
this Saturday
DATE
we really have to gain from
Russia
GPE
because there's not a huge amount of investment going in we see kind of that the same thing with this investment A princess tell out we've been to put that money in. Yep. The value of the security is going down since then. So we're not sure what he's gonna be getting out of that. And we understand product as well as flowing from from
Russia
GPE
into the UAE as well from from
Russia
GPE
. So you know what I I think I think the assessment And his royal highness which was it's a
European
NORP
war. It's not ours. Yeah, they don't wanna get there put their fingers into that and really get into that but there's really an issue that
Russia
GPE
isn't Opec Plus with the saddest, with the
UA
ORG
, they wanted to make sure that the
Russians
NORP
were with them in a down market. Of course, the
Asian
NORP
has rejection as a You know there's a wonderful
May 1
DATE
. I think we'll leave it there of course the
Iranco
NORP
numbers come in
Valerie Titel
PERSON
, the queen of Charles sent me a number. Shell
Chevron
ORG
excellent total in total
62 1 billion
MONEY
between them. Just leaving them in the dust there with a ram cup. At
48
CARDINAL
. Very much
Anthony Anthony
PERSON
. I made the least energy and markets reporter,
Anthony Department
ORG
, returned from his great
American
NORP
road trip. Coming up in the show,
UK
GPE
's opposition, labor party, proposes an energy price cap freeze as the country faces the worst cause of living crisis in
decades
DATE
. More on the story here on
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
A digital
first
ORDINAL
approach to the future work is where the industry and all companies will be heading. Metaverse. Immersive experiences that have a sense of active presence. This.
One 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
market by
the end of this decade
DATE
. And whether you know it or not you'll probably be working there in the future. Removing into a world where we're gonna be interacting with computers with our bodies. Definitely trippy. I think the adoption curve is gonna be slow. It's weird. Thing right now. Oh, look at you. If you have no legs. It's day break
Europe
LOC
by
Menice Crenny
PERSON
in
Dubai
GPE
let's have a quick look at the
UK
GPE
now the main opposition
Labor Party
ORG
wants to extend
Britain
GPE
's Winfall tax on oil and gas companies with the proceeds used to fund the total freeze on energy bills over the winter In terms of the energy The energy solution. Let's get to
Lizzy Boden
PERSON
. She's tracking their story for his
Lizzy
PERSON
. I mean, you had all the all executives meeting
last week
DATE
. There's a much derided meeting but
Kier Stama
PERSON
, the head of
the Labor Party
ORG
has come out. What has he had to say? Yes
Manus
PERSON
this is really care stormer responding to the criticism that there's been a policy vacuum you know you've got a lame duck prime minister we're not going to know who's the next conservative leader until
September
DATE
the
fifth
ORDINAL
and even the former prime minister
Gordon Brown
PERSON
has been telling us what he would do if he were in charge. So this is
Kier Starmer
PERSON
setting out his plan to continue the windfall tax which remember was originally
Labour
ORG
's idea and the conservative And you can see why it would be popular when remember these a ramco profits are symptomatic of what the energy giants have been raking in through this crisis And obviously strikes not just port workers but It's gonna be a pretty tortured week. Yes exactly not just the transport workers not just the barriers but also the doctors too now threatening to strike Let's trust the front runner to be the next conservative leader has said that she wants to control wages to avoid stoking inflation it's a hard argument to When the public sector hasn't the same power to set prices but we get the jobs and inflation data
next week
DATE
both set to show the power in is in the workers hands. Ok let's see how those strikes affect the real economy
Lizzy
PERSON
thank you very much
Lizzy Burton
PERSON
in
London
GPE
more ahead on
Bloomberg Markets Europe
ORG
Right?
The standard wave adventure from his work is you commit capital let's say over a 5 year investment period something like that And then the fun maybe
10 years or so 15 or these days
DATE
longer so often
15
CARDINAL
often the tail extends
up to 20 years
DATE
of these companies take one a long time ago can somebody that invest in a venture fund
today
DATE
should be trying to get rates of return of
20%
PERCENT
would you say or more you know top adventure or sort of
three
CARDINAL
action fees you know you ideally you're hoping for more than that For
five
CARDINAL
extra more you know you you're really liquid the entire time right so you you hope to get paid for the liquidity and today so yeah maybe to a
20 to 40%
PERCENT
if if if This sort of baseline. Let's take another subject. It's such a post. Somebody says, I don't wanna invest in
Andrews
GPE
and
Horwitz
PERSON
. I wanna be
Mark Andreson
PERSON
. How does somebody become a venture capitalist? What are the skill sets for good venture capitalist? High degree of intelligence, hard work, lot of luck, dress the right part, don't wear a tie, what are the things that make one a good You know people from very different
Mike Morris
PERSON
is a former newspaper reporter
John Doris
PERSON
former ship salesman you've got people with very different digital this kind of blue chip investment background you have people with very different backgrounds and experiences and so I I think it's it's some set of skills and some set of knowledge and then it's there there seems to be a taste component to it that's that's really hard to measure and Heard to predict. Why did the biggest names in business choose
Bloomberg
PERSON
? She's a great question. Great question.
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
bringing you the business data and innovators fighting climate change. Reinventing climate news on TV quick take ant
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com. Well, good morning everyone and welcome to
Bloomberg Markets Europe
ORG
. I'm
Francine Laquat
PERSON
live from
London
GPE
. Now, the cash trade just
less than an hour
TIME
away and here are your top headlines Surprise rate cards
China
GPE
unexpectedly lowering cost as retail sales and industrial production this forecast and bond yields slump
532 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day. That's the
daily
DATE
profit of oil producer
Saudi Oranca
PERSON
in
the second quarter
DATE
. The most ever by any listed company And investors look to this
week
DATE
's
fed minutes
FAC
and speakers including
Esther George
PERSON
and
Neil Kashkari
PERSON
what clues will they offer on whether the
FMC
ORG
will go big with hikes
next month
DATE
So we're
just under an hour
TIME
away from the start of cash I could be trading in
Europe
LOC
but
first
ORDINAL
of all Unexpectedly cut rates
China
GPE
and
Hong Kong Kind
GPE
if you look at
Europe
LOC
but futures they're actually on the app but then
US
GPE
futures are dipping. Some of the things we're watching is definitely
Chinese
NORP
bond deals. The offshore. If you want and on energy, we also have quite a lot of water levels at the rind dropping to such low Transported so we'll have a look at that so you can see a bit of pressure on the
Nasa
ORG
futures and the doubt joins futures overall this is a picture across
Transported so we'll have a look at that so you can see a bit of pressure on the Nasdaq teachers and the
Jones
PERSON
futures overall this is a picture across assets so we
Currencies
ORG
we of course look at commodities when you look at what's going on with
the Rhine River
LOC
and the fact that we talk about this shortage of fuel day in day out of the move where the illustrates how global gas markets are
Remarkably
ORG
tight that even as seemingly small disruption in your blacks they were verbabrate across the world you can see the
Australian
NORP
ASI skins oh. Five% but then
Indonesia
GPE
. Of eight% to AA really looking forward to full round up of of course what's going on in
China
GPE
the biggest surprise
today
DATE
with
67640
DATE
. So,
China
GPE
's economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in
July
DATE
. As fresh COVID outbreaks, across the country, weighed on consumer business spending including the global outlook and prompting the central bank to deliver a surprise interest rate Now for more let's bring in our
Bloomberg
GPE
Chief
Asia
LOC
correspondent he is undercurrent and a great to speak to you so what's something with the main takeaway from the data today
Weakness
ORG
across the board fancy and it looks like what was meant to be a recovery over
July
DATE
has been fairly short lift lived retail sales were softer industrial I'll put investment where weaker than expected there was more Signs from the housing market as well with boat investment and new home sales and prices are all looking weaker and together all of that data force as you mentioned essential buying to lower its key interest rate that's the
first
ORDINAL
time it has taken that step since
January
DATE
Enough to turn the economy around but it does show you how concerned the authorities are now about where growth is heading and it seems to be the due to prong to hit from the real estate slump. They hit from COVID oh. It's clearly clearly putting a lot more pressure on
China
GPE
's economy than expected. So and it doesn't mean that policy makers will respond more forcefully. I think that's a big question now
Francine
PERSON
in some ways you could argue to downside surprise in the data isn't that much of AA surprise really give has been happening in
China
GPE
throughout the year Pivot they've been somewhat restrained so far you know they haven't come through rescue with all guns blazing for the property sector we know that eh and likewise they remain very committed to COVID oh all of the official And signals. How many authorities are that? They don't plan to diverge from that. So at some point there is going to have to be a pivot. Probably will be lesser with the central bank and it might be more so what they do around the COVID or what they do with a real estate sector. To enter the we talk about it possible alarming slowdown what does it mean for the global economy? Well, I think it does suggest that in past down turns
France
GPE
, you know,
China
GPE
's economy has been there. Something of a cushion. It's coming to the rescue with its own stimulus and it's own demand. But this time around, they're really and truly
China
GPE
is in a slump and continu Fall further. It isn't going to be there for pillar for all support for the economy right at the time of course. When inflation and interest rates are dragging on the global growth story. And if anything by the way itself From that global slowdown because there are signs that it's export boom. It's coming off the ball. So, I think taking it all together net net. Please,
China
GPE
data story. Doesn't point you a very robust global outlook either. And thanks so much as always
Bloomberg
PERSON
's Chief
North Asia
LOC
correspondent and the current so slowing economy in
China
GPE
leads to a right cut from the PBOC how surprising was a cut while
20th
ORDINAL
economist pulled by
Bloomberg
PERSON
at forecast the rate on
the 1 year
DATE
medium ter
Facility
ORG
would be left on change. So here was the reaction to the data from investors
this morning
TIME
. The set of data are not exactly very pretty. Perform very strong.
This morning
TIME
seems to be suggesting policy makers are concerned and they want to make a gesture
10
CARDINAL
basis points that is almost like not a big deal right it's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care we're going to see continuous diverging performance across industries those policy tailwind sectors like infrastructure man Much strongly. To
three%
GPE
growth in the
Chinese
NORP
economy. Ping gets through the
20th
ORDINAL
party
congress
ORG
.
This October, November
DATE
, will there be a course correction on the economy or
See
two
CARDINAL
to three% growth in the
Chinese
NORP
economy. Who wants
Xi Jinping
PERSON
gets through
the 20th
DATE
party?
Congress
ORG
.
This October, November
DATE
, will there be a course correction on the economy or not? Well joining us now is the
STD
ORG
flow bank chief investment officer SC when you look at some of the sharks that we're seeing from the
Chinese
NORP
economy what's it mean for global investors? At the moment markets are really shrugging off all of the disappointing news and focusing on the fact that the
US
GPE
seems to have finally started a period of disinflation that a number of different data points throughout
the month of July
DATE
or for
the month of July
DATE
have shown us that this is Probably we won't find out much more until
the end of September
DATE
but at least there's this feeling that the worst of the inflation picture in the
US
GPE
Over unless we discuss earlier you know talking about the
Chinese
NORP
economic outlook if
China
GPE
is slowing and isn't going to pick up very much then investors really need the
US
GPE
to hold up So SC is there a concern though that the market is actually focused so much on the fact that we have pick inflation the
US
GPE
that they're not pricing in the possible interest rate hikes to go get to that
two%
ORG
target I don't I Became a little bit too consensus and the fat has been pushing back against that and we have to just keep in mind that
the University of Michigan 5 to
ORG
10 year inflation expectation Barely but didn't continue to fall
Three%
GPE
I don't think you could call that an anchored but the
Fed
ORG
is going to look at those medium to long term inflation expectations. Now whether we get another
75
CARDINAL
basis point hike in
September
DATE
we're
just 50
CARDINAL
is a question mark but beyond that I think what investors are feeling reassured about today is that the more aggressive part of the tightening cycle is probably behind us but it Mean that the red hikes are going to end for now. So but I see given what you're saying on inflation in the
US
GPE
and what we're seeing in
China
GPE
what's your take on Is there is there a dollar or a nimbica that you have? Well we've you know depending on the inflation numbers that we see in
the next couple of weeks
DATE
we could have another move higher in yields especially if there's a feeling that growth holds up and that inflation probably isn't completely done surprising us it's The
US
GPE
dollar weakening very much from here they're really is still that interest rate differential support there's that growth and earnings differential that's supportive as well and of course if we start to worry about growth Then some of those safe haven flows could come in but we've probably seen the bulk there and then for
China
GPE
Probably something around range trading from where we are a little bit of commitment from the policy makers there to help but how much they'll go is is really the big question now. I see it's very clear that the concern in
Indian
NORP
energy market what we're seeing was
the Rhine River
LOC
just shows how tight that market is do you invest in some of the energy supplies and how does that match up with some of the of course ESG wrap around so we've been talking It's it's it's been a difficult question for investors and obviously the the lack of natural gas and the risk of shortages means that some of the dirtier fuels are back in fashion at least from an economic perspective for for growth right? It's still not very fashion For investors. We've had some energy companies since
late last year
DATE
. So, really unrelated To to to the invasion of
U Court
ORG
to the war in the
Ukraine
GPE
we've taken a lot of profit there we think that now we're seeing prices come back down a little bit but they should probably stay above this 80 to
90 dollar
MONEY
per barrel level which means that energy companies Potential to to catch up to those oil prices before the situation so we still have some of those You have to keep in mind that some of these oil majors are also some of the biggest Energy investors as well so it's not always as black and white as we'd like
Hey Facebook you have to keep in mind that some of these oil majors are also some of the biggest
Energy
ORG
, investors as well. So, it's not always as black and white as we'd like would like that answer to be. And certainly thanks so much. Talk a bit about earnings for early coming up black gold posts the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of any listed company ever will have the details next plus we'll look at the role of nuclear and what role that will play in your synergy crisis we'll be joined by the chief executive officer of nuclear industry as That's a little bit later on but up next we're on the markets with If you have any questions to any of our guest please send them on to us on
IB Plus TV
ORG
go this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. There is an epic saying in
Italy
GPE
when it comes to family generations that the
first
ORDINAL
generation creates the
second
ORDINAL
generation expands and the
third
ORDINAL
generation And that's almost what happened in the
Gucci
PRODUCT
story. Now I would have been watching my experience about those who says I love you and dentistry. The
Gucci
PERSON
family was the strength but also the weakness of the label. The situation became dire with
Gucci
PERSON
's finances. They were not able to pay salaries. They were not able to pay suppliers.
Gucci
PERSON
's really teetering on the brink at this stage. Our customers, vehicles, you know, that are their primary vehicles that are EVs and be able to do that. We need to have range and infrastructure and we need to remove the pain points and so that's what we're doing. Portfolio for generally speaking for most investors would would make sense because At some station one market will make a comeback. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a base case. It still makes a lot of sense. Be close to final
10
CARDINAL
. I actually think they're increasing it pretty dramatically at the moment as is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your returns because
60 40
DATE
as I mentioned has been a challenging portfolio construction expoure to have The debate there are over whether it's time to put the
60 40
DATE
portfolio strategy to rest or not continues now those were some of the responses to our end live pulse survey question
last week
DATE
let's continue now the markets conversation with the Investment officer I see I have a couple of questions of course on your biggest convictions but
first
ORDINAL
of all the
60 40
DATE
is a dead and does it ever come back? You know as as a lot of your other guests have said you can't Throw away
decades
DATE
of valid benchmark on
a couple of months
DATE
performance or not I think we're starting to see more and more that you need more than just equities and bonds in your pool.
Benchmark
PERSON
on
a couple of months
DATE
performance or not. I think we're starting to see more and more that you need more than just equities and bonds in your portfolio, you need alternatives, you need commodities, you need to real estate, you need crypto, in some cases, there's a lot of other things really to kind of Fill the gap from some of these traditional asset classes but it does remain an interesting starting point for a lot of conversations within investors and it's often what they think about as a
first
ORDINAL
step when they're building Portfolio. I see I know amongst your conviction calls you'll still have tech which is surprising to sound surprise not surprising At toddlers why do you still like to give in all the swings we see and that's face I think there are couple things to keep in mind. One, we like the tech sector, but I think you can be even more differentiated within that sector, because we have some clear companies that are almost safe havens. We have some that have really shown the sustainability of that earning And that's the main reason why we like tech. We think the time and time again those earnings continue to come in. They continue to grow and there's a confidence that investors can have in the future path over there. Again, more differentiation because not everyone is growing in the same way. But we're really started to see it ready from
June
DATE
a little Performance in the tech sector and it does seem that it is leading the markets higher. Now, I'm not sure the straight line up. We've seen over
the last 6 weeks
DATE
or so or
8 weeks
DATE
is going to continue. We'll probably get some periods of consolidation or another scare in the market. So, some point but it is starting to feel Like those june lows might hold and I do think tech is going to be part of the opt performance later into
the year
DATE
. Were you surprised that a lot of the earnings and the the earning season actually overall helped much better than I expected and is Of lagging effect of what we're looking at. To some extent there is we have seen that there were couple data points there in
the second quarter
DATE
in the
US
GPE
that started to show some cracks in the economy and then it feels that the growth outlook is actually holding up better as well so earnings should be able to hold we've also And maybe a better ability than expected for a number of companies with pricing power and we saw that luxury segment really hold up those higher wage consumers continuing to spend we know that the savings rate has dipped somewhat and that we have to keep an eye on because There's changing spending patterns can continue Really speaking It was reassuring for markets but we have seen that companies
Us
GPE
on
the outside quarter after quarter
DATE
so we'll see if it continues but the underlying
US
GPE
economy does feel strong and that suggests earnings should be able to hold up more than we feared. Do you expect this rotation into
European
NORP
cyclicals I see to continue? It's a very tricky picture for
Europe
LOC
and to be honest it's almost been surprising how well
European
NORP
equities have performed given the situation with
Russian
NORP
the
Ukraine
GPE
given the energy situation the cost of energy electricity and food weighing on consumers Clearly a very different inflation picture for
Europe
LOC
than the
US
GPE
so if anything that difficult decision for the ECB and I don't think they're going to tighten quite as much as the market things they will. The growth picture is worrysome for
Europe
LOC
. So how much earnings can hold up and how much confidence Investors are gonna continue to have encyclicals. I think that's a little bit less certain. Ashley thanks so much. Chief investment officer. Now let's get straight to the
Bloomberg
ORG
.
First
ORDINAL
word news. Here's
Alice Atkins
PERSON
. Hi Alice.
Morning Francine
PERSON
. Water levels are the keyway point on
the Ryan River
LOC
are expected to study at Extremely low level
this week
DATE
adding to
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch many barges can't transit pass them up at a point west of
Frankfort
LOC
when the water level is below
40 cm
QUANTITY
according to government data it's already at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to
30 cm
QUANTITY
today The
UK
GPE
's opposition labor party has proposed extending
Oil
ORG
and gas companies to find a total freeze on energy bills over the
winter
DATE
the plan to
UK
GPE
's opposition labor party has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's winfall tax on oil and gas companies to fund a total freeze on energy bills over the
winter
DATE
the plan to be announced by leader
Kier Starma
PERSON
later today
TIME
will put renewed pressure on the government to act and let's predict the typical annual household energy bill could top
4200
CARDINAL
By
January
DATE
. A
US
GPE
congressional delegation landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit they're set to meet with
Taiwanese
NORP
president sailing and other lawmakers the trip Keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high after health speaking
Nancy Glossy's
PERSON
recent visit to the region. And salmon rushty is starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed at a lecture in
New York
GPE
.
AP
ORG
has quoted his agent saying that author is now on the road to recovery. Rushty is her tab been removed Events later on
Sunday
DATE
and is now able to talk. The author of this satanic verses suffered serious injuries on
Friday
DATE
. After being stabbed in multiple times shortly after taking the stage Global news
20 browser day
DATE
on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take part by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
120 countries this is
Bloomberg Francine
PERSON
I was thinking so much else Atkins here in
London
GPE
now coming up said your uncle post the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of Any listed company ever or have the details next and this is
Bloomberg Bloomberg
PERSON
brings you crucial data at terminal speed. People are going full risk on. Hey portal it's gonna take Boring inflation. Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers in this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather we'll explore the science behind the recent heat wave More extreme than it is now. I'm afraid that's inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills and until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. And adapt. Government to lead on this and we need government to
Regulate
ORG
and and Stop sending me something
Bloomberg
PERSON
's Global headquarters in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
airing
this weekend
DATE
on
Bloom TV
ORG
quick take ant online It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse Welcome back everyone in
September
DATE
market open and we are
about 35 minutes
TIME
away from the start of cash I could use now this is a For
European
NORP
futures we're actually holding strong some
four
CARDINAL
times of eight% higher again if you look at what features are saying in the
Europe
LOC
compared to what they're saying in the
US
GPE
it's a different story the focus firmly on what we saw in
China
GPE
as well not
Asian
NORP
stocks did pair some games after we had that surprise move
Are saying in the
Europe
LOC
convert what they're saying in the
US
GPE
it's a different story the focus firmly on what we saw in
China
GPE
as well not
Asian
NORP
stocks did pair some games after we had that surprise move from
China
GPE
unex Cutting rates. Now, I was looking at
China
GPE
and
Hong Kong
GPE
stocks. They were declining. The overall picture. We had a terrific briefing from our endocrine Is that
China
GPE
's outlook continues to darken and that's adding a lot further burden to already falter global economy. Now,
Sadiq
GPE
has Biggest quarter they adjusted profit of any listed company ever driven by high crude prices and production. Meanwhile, a stock exchange filing shows that
Saudi
NORP
Billionaire Prince
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Middle East Synergy Market
LOC
reporter
Anthony DePalo
PERSON
joins us now thank you
Anthony
PERSON
for joining us first I said your uncle did so so well is it just an automatically Translation to higher all price. Good
morning
TIME
,
Francine
GPE
. Yeah, clearly the oil price was a big factor here in in really juicing these earnings. They came in slightly above expectations that Positive for rent as well.
One
CARDINAL
thing that we've seen also that that helped those was the downstream earnings that's been kind of a trend even from
the last quarter
DATE
where downstream has been improving their results.
This quarter
DATE
they increased their profit by something by
176%
PERCENT
. That's because of
Quicker
ORG
increase in the price of fuels and that big demand for transport fuels as economies came out of the came out of the pandemic so that really did also help along with higher production and So I think what are they doing with all the sexual cash Yeah they're gonna be increasing investment so they are gonna be putting
about 10 1 billion
MONEY
a quarter in into into investment
this year
DATE
a lot of that is going to increase capacity To expand their production capacity from
12 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
to
13 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
by about 2027 they're gonna do that in increments so that's coming on in a lot of that is going into crude oil production they're also looking to know the things like hydrogen ammonia different fuels that will help in this transition away from oil however this saturated CEO of
Minaster
ORG
does say they continue to see oil production excuse me oil demand group to continue to grow through
the end of the decade
DATE
so that they expect to help to underpin continued growth racing So
Anthony
PERSON
what else are investors looking for to to hear from management in terms of what they plan to do in the future? Yeah, there could always be questions about the dividend. They did maintain the dividends and they'll say they'll keep the same dividend for
the next quarter
DATE
. So that that there are always gonna be questions about whether they could increase that especially with bumper profits like this. Far we haven't seen signs out of the the kingdom or out of the company that they do wanna increase that activity and they wanna stick with that which is already
one
CARDINAL
of the world's biggest dividends dividend payouts anyway in terms of debt they they've kind of they're continuing to cut the debt but they've slowed the process there that's not such a priority anymore so we'll continue Where is the development on this capacity and the production and whether they are gonna be able to keep up that production at
about 11 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
a day which is which is the Saddy Arabia limit under the
Opec
ORG
plus a green Still in place
Francine
PERSON
.
Anthony
PERSON
, thanks so much. Terrific briefing there from our
Bloomberg
NORP
Middle East Synergy Market reporter
Anthony DePalla
PERSON
. Now, coming up, we preview some of the big earnings reports to do from
Europe
LOC
this week
DATE
including the
German
NORP
chemical giant tankle as price pressures are trying to or starting to have an impact. Also, that other story, the sad you billionaire prince I will invested
more than 500 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
in
Russian
NORP
firms in
the days
DATE
where I'm
Moscow
GPE
's invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
will have a full round up of that story As well this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Companies need to think about how they normalize And that means to recognize and appreciate and respect and celebrate all aspects of culture in different cultures And so it's critically important that we recognize that this is an issue just as my sisters have said you know and make sure that we recognize how that issue shows up in the workplace and how we can be advocates and allies in action to ensure that no person no black person in this country feels margin Or disrespected or diminished in any way because of their hair or their race. So the challenges is not everyone understands that race based hair discrimination is a reality and so we find ourselves constantly educating people including lawmakers to ensure that they understand that hair discrimination is
Hair
PERSON
discrimination is outlawed nationwide. Welcome back to
Bloomberg Markets Europe
ORG
everyone we're
30 minutes
TIME
from the cash equities open in here are your top stories surprise rate cuts
China
GPE
unexpectedly lowers key barring costs as retail
One 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day well that's the
daily
DATE
profit of oil producer I'm good in
the second quarter
DATE
the most ever by any listed company and investors look to this
week
DATE
's
fed minutes
FAC
and speakers including
Esther George
PERSON
and
Neil Kaskari
PERSON
what cruise will they offer
Next month
DATE
. Now, this is a picture of what the futures look like. We're seeing a bit of pressure on
Europe
LOC
on
US
GPE
futures but actually
European
NORP
futures holding strong despite that surprise cut from PBOC
100
CARDINAL
futures games
some four
CARDINAL
tenths of eight%. The Kac 40 again
some 510
CARDINAL
so that percent and then the big folks Horses on
China
GPE
's outlook continuing to darken and that is adding further to the burdens of unalreaded faltering global economy. Now, let's get straight to
the Bloomberg Business Flash
ORG
. Here's the Alzapkins. Hi,
Alice
ORG
. Hi,
Francine
PERSON
. How do you ramco has posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of Any listed company anywhere.
One 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in
the second quarter
DATE
up from
25 and a half
DATE
one 1 billion
a year earlier
DATE
. They can't believe it is using the
Winfall
PERSON
to reduce debt and invest in a huge expansion of its production Continue growing for the rest of
the decade
DATE
.
Japan
GPE
's economy recovered to its pre pandemic side in
the second quarter
DATE
with growth picking up after COVID curves or relaxed. GDP grew it in analyzed pace of
two
CARDINAL
. Two% below the economist median forecast of
two
CARDINAL
.
Six%
GPE
. Consumer spending which accounts
Consumer spending which accounts for
more than half
CARDINAL
of
Japan
GPE
's economic output led the growth. They can talk it At the age of 59 was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. He's been credited with building
Doych
ORG
banks investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse that's your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash franzine oh thank you so much and of course giving A lot of time to
Bloomberg TV
ORG
for interviews in the past and he was one of the sharpest minds certainly that I had ever met. Now, let's take a look at also at
the week ahead this Monday
DATE
is a deadline for hedge funds to disclose their
US
GPE
equity investments
Tomorrow
DATE
we'll get the latest job state out of the
UK
GPE
an indication of how the economy is firing amid monetary tightening and a cost of living crisis then it's all about
Europe
LOC
as we get the latest euros on P date on
Wednesday
DATE
and the CPI print on
Thursday
DATE
. Finally, on
Friday
DATE
, the
UK
GPE
summer strikes continues with a walkout for the
London
GPE
underground. Now, it's also
a big week
DATE
for earnings in
Europe
LOC
with some of the continent Biggest companies due to file reports and what is an increasingly challenging economic environment that is putting pressure on prices from on all of this we're joined by
Bloomberg
ORG
's
April
DATE
road to
April
DATE
great to have you on the program
today
DATE
so Living crisis impacting
German
NORP
chemicals maker hand call
Good morning
TIME
. Yes. So, hang on reported results
this morning
TIME
that were slightly better than expected. The company also raised its organic revenue forecast for
the full year
DATE
. It did have a say that it's earnings were impact By input cost headwinds and we've seen that ankle faces a bit of a dilemma and that it can either sacrifice its margins to boost volume or raise prices further which could potentially put longer term growth at risk. It's also a question of whether further price increases could be accepted by hankles, consumers, and given that cost of living crisis If management pushes prices too far Could possibly swap to cheaper brands. Yeah and this is what you know the main problem for a lot of these big companies and it depends I'm sure on what kind of sector and what kind of products you make so how is Carlsborough the beer maker expected to manage inflationary headwinds? Yes, that's right. So,
Carlsberg
GPE
is the next big brewer schedule to report
this week
DATE
. It
last week
DATE
already raised. It's
4 year
DATE
forecast. And based on a strong business performance year The brew stride cited strong on trade recovery in its
European
NORP
markets and also strong results in its
Asian
NORP
markets as well and it said that these factors more than offset Rising commodity and energy cost pressures in
the first half of the year
DATE
the bruising seems to be adapt into the cost of living crisis by planning to invest And it's mainstream alcoholic beverages. However, going into
the second half of the year
DATE
, could be a bit more challenging for
Carlsberg
GPE
as consumers face rising energy costs.
April
DATE
corporate payment market to also becoming increasingly competitive. What can you tell us about idea? This is a
Dutch
NORP
payment firm. Expected to fair with his results. I think on
Friday
DATE
. Yes, that's correct. So, investigators are set to be piling back into text talks which Be good news for
AJ Agin
PERSON
shares have been going up since
June
DATE
after series of
monthly
DATE
declines and the
Dutch
NORP
payment firm as you said which handles transactions for companies like
McDonald's and Uber ended Last year
ORG
on a very strong note during the coronavirus lockdowns there's more people were spending online that really helps add in gain its market share and analysts have said that it's strong presence in the
US
GPE
and the roll out of new products builds well for Growth.
April
DATE
, thank you so much.
April Roach
PERSON
there with the very latest on some of these companies that are reporting or have reported
this week
DATE
. Coming up is
European
NORP
leaders continue efforts to lessen their reliance on
Russian
NORP
gas when also look at what role nuclear power could play in filling the gap. That's coming up next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
So what's the best investment advice you've ever been given by anybody? Compound interest. The compounding of returns is an incredible miracle of business finance and human existence Everything you learn is additive everyday and if you keep at it and don't quit It's an incredible miracle. And it's and it's not just interest. It was it was always said about compound interest returns. Compound business returns compound human returns They're all very adventive. Could you learn
every day
DATE
? And if you keep at it, it's very very Super helpful. In your observation of investors, what do you think is the biggest mistake that average investors make? Selling it the wrong time. And they sell when the prices go down. Yes. Or yes. Not keeping People have conviction or the invest for their if they invest for the right reasons that just keep at it. There's a guest storage itself is not sufficient. We all facing a crisis at the moment. It's been produced by the cut off of
Russian
NORP
gas but it tells us yet again just how volatile and uncertain fossil fuel prices are. Yes prices will remain Very high and it also me resolved that some disruption. He gets sort of
tens of hundreds
CARDINAL
of of bigger wipes of renewable energy before
winter
DATE
. So it is a matter of saving energy. It's a matter of securing sources. To reduce to reduce consumption. The
first
ORDINAL
step obviously is to become independent
Russian
NORP
supplies which in the end can only be managed by additional imports mostly
Ellen G.
PERSON
Here
today
DATE
we've seen the the reduction in the gas consumption by
about 10%
PERCENT
in the
EU
ORG
. Further down the path to emissions reductions than it would otherwise be. What business leaders and regulators are discussing the energy crisis on
Bloomberg
PERSON
that's now get straight to Hi Alice hi Francine China Central Bank has unexpectedly cut its key interest rates I didn't ramp up For an economy way down by COVID lockdowns. The need for additional stimulus was underscore by official data shortly afterwards which showed retail investment and indus Production numbers for
July
DATE
all messed economist estimates Water levels are key way point on the
Ryan
PERSON
weather are expected to steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
add
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch. Many barges can't transit past the marker at the point western. When the water level is below
40
CARDINAL
centimetres according to government data it's already add about
Five cm
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to
30 cm
QUANTITY
today
DATE
. A
US
GPE
congressional delegation landed in
Taiwan
GPE
on
Sunday
DATE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit. They're set to meet with
Tyrene
ORG
's president and other lawmakers. The trip risks keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high after health speaking
Nancy Pelosi's
PERSON
recent visit to the region. Is starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed at a lecture in
New York
GPE
.
AP
ORG
has quoted his agent saying that author is now on the road to recovery. Rushty said Remove from event later on
Sunday
DATE
and
AP
ORG
have quoted his agent saying that author is now on the road to recovery. Rush D said tap in remove from event later on
Sunday
DATE
and it's now able to talk. The over of the satanic verses suffer Serious injuries on
Friday
DATE
after being stabbed multiple times shortly after taking the stage Oil and gas companies to fund a total freeze on energy bills over the
winter
DATE
the plan to be announced by leader
Kier Starma
PERSON
later today
TIME
we'll put renewed pressure on the government to act and less predict the typical annual household energy bill could top
1200
CARDINAL
lb by
January
DATE
. Global news
25 a day
DATE
. Quick take part by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
. This is
Bloomberg Francine
PERSON
. Oh, thanks so much
Als Atkins
ORG
in
London
GPE
. Now, let's get more on that story joining us now as
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Lizzy Burden
PERSON
. So,
Lizzy
PERSON
, what can we actually expect? Opposition leader. Good
morning
TIME
.
First
ORDINAL
of all, give me
McDougal
PERSON
's
Today
DATE
. Yeah. Responding to the criticism that there had been a policy vacuum. You've got lane duck prime minister
Boris Johnson
PERSON
. He's not likely to be replaced until
September
DATE
the
fifth
ORDINAL
You even had the former Prime Minister
Gordon Brown
PERSON
weighing in and telling us what he would do if he were in charge so finally
Kiss Arm
PERSON
is setting out his plan to continue the windfall tax on energy companies and freeze energy bills Cos of course energy bills are what are pushing up inflation for consumers in
Britain
GPE
and
the Bank of England
ORG
now sees it rising not just into double digits but
above 13%
PERCENT
in
the fall
DATE
. So it heaps pressure on the
two
CARDINAL
contenders to be prime mini To adopt this policy but the the windfall tax was originally a labor idea. The conservatives have already copied it once. So it's a very difficult one to copy again. But on the other hand a poll for the time is by you go of shows. It's very popular especially even with conservative voters. So yes Difficult to resist. Yeah, it's during
the years
DATE
. Strike action continues also in the
UK
GPE
. Yes, and it's not just the transport workers, it's also the barristers, even the doctors are threatening to strike. The
British
NORP
medical association says that their pay in real terms has fallen
25%
PERCENT
over
the past 13 years
DATE
. Now, we're going to get more data on It's set to show really that the the power still remains in the hands of the workers you've got a tight labor market inflation expected to climb
10%
PERCENT
. Er but
Liz Trust
PERSON
says that it's the government's job to control Wages to
Steve
PERSON
off stooking inflation but it's a hard argument to make when inflation is this high and remember the public sector doesn't have the same power to set prices so as big tanks are cute it's hard for them to contribute Wage price spiral yeah it certainly is our
Lizzy
PERSON
Bird and there was a very latest on the
UK
GPE
thanks so much now let's get back to our top story
this morning
TIME
the PBOC has unexpectedly can't it's key interest rates to ramp up support for an economy way down by COVID lockdowns and a deepening property slump now for more let's bring back our
Bloomberg
NORP
Chief
Asia
LOC
correspondent and the current and What does this mean for future policy for PBOC? I think clearly
France
GPE
and the economy is under much more pressure than was expected
July
DATE
was meant to be
the month
DATE
of recovery it is near
the third quarter
DATE
I suppose to be all about pulling out of the slump hit during
the second quarter
DATE
A big lockdowns were in
Shanghai
GPE
and
Swan
GPE
but the number
today
DATE
show that's not quite the case retail sales Could unexpected industrial output we could only expected a spite of course exports holding up investment still
week
DATE
it's pretty much been led by government spending rather than the private sector and of course keep that appointment housing market and the housing sector continue to show weakness that's why we had the response that we did from the PBOC they came along and they Since
January
DATE
but it's important to know that though that that rate could in and of itself isn't really expected to be AA sort of game changer for
China
GPE
's economy the price of borrowing isn't Economy it's more about the demand for loans companies in the households don't want to borrow given the pressures that they that the economy is facing so there's clearly a lot of work for propolis makers still to do to turn this around
Yeah the man for loans companies in the households don't want to borrow given the pressures that the that the economy is facing so there's clearly a lot of work for for police makers still to do to turn this around So yeah are you expecting
China
GPE
's outlook to continue to darken and I think that's where we are at the moment frenzy and I mean as I say we were meant to be heading into a better
second
ORDINAL
half
CARDINAL
for
China
GPE
's economy all of the narrative had been around how the worst of the lockdown so to speak we're over you would start to see a gradual recovery for consumption ex Holding up okay there certainly is plenty of policy for support going into the economy eh that was expected again traction
two
CARDINAL
but I think when you look at these numbers they kind of suggest that that recovery is pretty much stolen out it doesn't go into reverse Think the bigger question also is what exactly is going to change from here when the authorities seem pretty committed to COVID oh all the official language and signals so far have been there determined to stand by that given the health dividend that willing to take a bit of a hit to the economy The property slump continues as it is. We're not seeing any kind of a massive bailout Say either what's going to pivot where will you turn come on the policy side of things politics will have a questions or a lot of economist are asking
today
DATE
just what steps will you go and take now overcoming
weeks
DATE
and
months
DATE
ahead Yeah and then I guess that the other question of course what this means for the global economy Hey look at the very least
Francine
PERSON
you have to say global growth is slowing down it's under a lot of pressure everywhere the IMS said we're cheating on the brink of a recession you know in past time turns you might say
China
GPE
would be there to put a floor under demand given all Stimulus in giving all of its domestic driven a demand but that's clearly not going to be the case this time around. The world cannot rely on
China
GPE
at the moment. It seems to be that the only buffer between the world, the global reception, and not at the moment is the
US
GPE
jobs market because Start using going to be the pillar of support for global demand that it once was. Thank you so much as always our
Bloomberg
GPE
Chief
North Asia
LOC
correspondent and the current now coming up we'll look at your stocks to watch including
SAS
ORG
priority from
Apollo Global Management
ORG
has provided
100 1 million dollars
MONEY
in financing to the
Scandinavian Airline
ORG
as it tries to regain it's financial health so that story's up next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving. Coverage starts
August 25
DATE
only on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio A digital
first
ORDINAL
approach to the future work is where the industry and all companies will be heading. Immersive experiences that have a sense of active presence.
One 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
market by
the end of this decade
DATE
. And whether you know it or not you'll probably be working there in the future. We're moving into a world where we're gonna be interacting with computers with our bodies This is definitely trippy. I think the adoption curb is gonna be slow.
Working there in the future. We're moving into a world where we're gonna be interacting with computers with our bodies. Definitely trippy. It's weird. Thing right now. Oh, look at you. If you have no legs. Kind of a fun world and we're just at the very beginning of a very long journey
Choose Bloomberg
PERSON
. It's a great question. Great question. I'm glad you asked that. Welcome back to
Bloomberg Markets Europe
ORG
but
10 minutes
TIME
from the cash equities open the
European
NORP
futures holding strong gain
some four tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent again this is not like what we
Asia
LOC
where we saw a lot of the stocks begins being paired after we had that a
China
GPE
unexpectedly cutting rates and then if you'll get
US
GPE
futures they're actually on the way down I think some
three
CARDINAL
times of eight% overall the focus
today
DATE
firm than what
China
GPE
said the fact that the outlook continues to darken we have
two
CARDINAL
data points that actually we need to look at and of course read across To some of the
Chinese
NORP
tenure bond features. Again, that's gapping higher after we heard from PBOC. So, we look at further down the road, what that means for mortgages, what that means for the housing market, in
China
GPE
. It's also take a look at some of Events coming up in
the week
DATE
here in the
UK
GPE
on
Tuesday
DATE
we get jobs data and can to our grocery price figures which will give a sense of food inflation in the
UK
GPE
. Trust and wish you soon. We'll also hold another hostings event in
Scotland
GPE
. On
Wednesday
DATE
, we get the closely watched CPI data for
July
DATE
while soon I can trust head to
Belfast
GPE
on
Friday
DATE
we get consumer confidence and retail sales. Now, it's also take a look at the stocks to watch
today
DATE
with our
Laura Right
PERSON
,
Laura
PERSON
, what do you have on the plate? Or starting with these
Swedish
NORP
carrier essays. If they have secured
700 1 million dollars
MONEY
in financing from me private equity firm
Apollo
ORG
. Importantly this is a A bridge financing associated with restructuring when a company has filed for
chapter 11
LAW
bankruptcy SES believe they will have
quarter
DATE
approval for this financing by
mid September
DATE
they originally filed the bankruptcy back in When wage talks between the airline and their pilots collapsed. But overall this is an airline that is really in trouble. It has a significant dat burden. It was all really lost making before the pandemic. And this year Share prices fallen by
around 50%
PERCENT
.
Laura
PERSON
, what about
Henko
PERSON
? Yeah, this is the
German
NORP
chemicals make it. It was a beat on
second quarter
DATE
revenue. The company raised that full year organic revenue guidance. Now, the key here is that the decreases in volumes were not as bad as fair and that tells us
Hengel
PERSON
has been able to pass on higher prices to that customer so far for
the first half of the year
DATE
the adhesive technology's business was standout that's industrial glues and
Call
ORG
is really the global market leader. They also noted that their plans to withdraw from
Russia
GPE
and
Belarus
GPE
are on track to take place by
the end of this year
DATE
.
Laura
PERSON
I've been a lot of the folks of course on energy but you're also looking at minors
today
DATE
. I'm looking at mine as following data from
China
GPE
which shows us that the world's
second
ORDINAL
largest economy is still struggling pointing to a slowdown. Home prices fell for
an 11th straight month
DATE
. And some of these minors anglo
American
NORP
BHP reoccinto Really essential in supplying raw materials that are necessary for the home construction sector iron or particularly which goes into making steel. Well, analysts over at
JP Morgan's
ORG
say that right now in the world
second
ORDINAL
largest economy No one is immune.
Laura
PERSON
thanks so much
Laura
PERSON
right there with some of the major stocks we're watching now let's get straight to the
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash here's
Alice Atkins
PERSON
hi Alice hi Francy Ramco has posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of Listed company anywhere net income rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter
DATE
up from
25 and a half
DATE
one 1 billion
a year earlier
DATE
the company is using the Wimble to reduce debt and invest in a huge expansion of its production capacity see you in
Nasa
ORG
as a company All.
Yeah, earlier. Is using the windfall to reduce debt and invest in a huge expansion of its production capacity. See you
Arman Nathas
PERSON
as a company expects all demand to continue growing for the rest of
the decade
DATE
. Economy recovered to its pre-pandemic size in
the second quarter
DATE
with roof picking up after COVID curves were relaxed GDP grew it in analyzed piece of
two
CARDINAL
. Two% below the economist median forecast of
two
CARDINAL
. Six% consumer Which accounts for
more than half
CARDINAL
of
Japan
GPE
's economic output led the growth And the
UK
GPE
's opposition labor party has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's windfall tax on oil and gas companies to fund a total freeze on energy bills over the winter We'll put renewed pressure on the government to act and let's predict the typical annual household energy bill could top
4200
CARDINAL
lb by
January
DATE
. Tributes are pouring in from Wall St and beyond for
Andrew Jane
PERSON
they can't talk it's
Gerald
PERSON
president and former
Deutsche Bank
ORG
co CEO
Jane
PERSON
's death at the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer He's been credited with building
Dutch
NORP
banks investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse that's your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash francine oh it's thanks so much
Alice Adkins
PERSON
there with a very latest of course on some of these important stories now this is the
Treasure
WORK_OF_ART
is a couple of things that we need to keep an eye on. I know
August
DATE
is a bit quieter than usual but the focus will be on
Jackson Hall
FAC
that starts
August 25
DATE
. The dollar is actually extending gains against Is after we had that data in the
China
GPE
actually signaling weakness in the economy the drop in the after one is among the biggest contribut That are now driving the
Bloomberg
PERSON
dollar spot indexes
first
ORDINAL
back to back advancing
a month
DATE
so with the fears of recession both in the
US
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
I have to say a lot of the focus and we've been hitting the phones to try and get investors on the call on that the stagnant growth in
China
GPE
also means that the global economy really locks driver to expand that would bode ill for
Acids
NORP
and should support the dollar as a haven. So, we'll look at dollar. We have the
Bloomberg
GPE
US
GPE
dollar
1263
DATE
. Coming up. It's a market open. Of course, futures still pointing to higher start despite the pressure on
US
GPE
futures. The other thing we're looking at,
Valerie
PERSON
, did some great charts on this. Is it the Chinese 10 Bond future. Again, grappling with the PBOC did and then of course we will get energy levels because of the water levels on the river right this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. There is an epic saying in
Italy
GPE
when it comes to family generations that the
first
ORDINAL
generation creates the
second
ORDINAL
generation expands and the
third
ORDINAL
generation destroys And that's almost what happened in the
Gucci
PRODUCT
story. Now experience about those who says I love you and then just read you. The
Gucci
PERSON
family was the strength but also the weakness of the label. The situation became dire with
Gucci
PERSON
's finances. They were not able to pay salary.
Also the weakness of the label. The situation became dire with
Gucci
PERSON
's finances. They were not able to pay salaries. They were not able to pay suppliers.
Gucci
PERSON
's really teetering on the brink at this stage. Our customers, vehicles, That are their primary vehicles that are EVs and be able to do that. We need to have range and infrastructure and we need to remove the paint points and so that's what we're doing. Welcome to
the European Market
ORG
open everyone I'm in to go until the start of cash I could eat trading in front here in
London
GPE
and here are your top stories surprise at rate cost will
China
GPE
unexpectedly lowers key borrowing costs as retail sales and industrial production is forecast like you want
532 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day that's a daily profit of oil producer said your uncle in
the second quarter
DATE
the most ever by any listed company and investors look to this
week
DATE
's
fed Speakers
ORG
including
Esther Georgia
PERSON
what clues will they offer on whether the
FMC
ORG
will go big with hikes
next month
DATE
So, good
morning
TIME
everyone. Let's take a look at the futures and actually we're seeing
European
NORP
futures, holding Strong gaming
between three tenths of a percent
CARDINAL
and also
four
CARDINAL
tenths of eight% for the
100
CARDINAL
futures. Now, this maybe
Catherine
PERSON
due to compared to what we're seeing in the
US
GPE
. We're seeing After that surprise interest rate cut from PBOC so it's very clear that actually investors are trying to So that disappointing data prince out of
China
GPE
that surprise interest rate cut means that they're worried about something
econom Filters
ORG
through and has an impact on global growth worldwide.
Jackson Hall
ORG
probably the next catalyst for a lot of other stocks in
the US Browns or Treasuries
ORG
that starts
August
DATE
20- If you'll get the footsy gaining
some three tens percent
PERCENT
at the open similar games for the Ibex and the Cat 40 the most interesting bit as has been in
the last couple of weeks
DATE
has commandees Iron or under If you look at natural gas pretty much unchanged but we continue looking of course at
the Rine River
LOC
and global levels of that now the problem is that it also is less econom If you have a barge or some of the ships that need to go through
Rine River
LOC
It really is less economically because you need to put less weight to pass on to much shorter water levels overall this is a picture for the
US
GPE
10 years
DATE
so we look at the global impact not only that PBOC has on everywhere else but what it happens on oil I don't know if we have Otherwise we'll move on to something else. But of course there you go. You can see S and B futures done
two
CARDINAL
tenths of eight And it's really that crude oil that we're looking at at
one%
ORG
lower. Now,
China
GPE
's economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in
July
DATE
as fresh COVID outbreaks across the country wait on consumer business spending, cutting the growth outlook, and prompting the central bank to deliver a surprise interest rate cut. For more, let's bring in
Bloomberg
PERSON
's chief
Asia
LOC
correspondent, he's And so and what's the main key takeaway from the data
Weakness
ORG
across the board
Francine
PERSON
. Weakness and retail sales. Weakness and industrial output. Weakness in investment and of course more signs of softening and all important real estate sector
two
CARDINAL
. Remember the month of July was meant to be when
China
GPE
's economy started to turn around to gain some momentum Some of the big lockdowns earlier in
the year
DATE
. That isn't playing out. We saw softness.
From some of the big lockdowns earlier in the year that isn't playing out we saw softness across the board and that's what forced the central bank
this morning
TIME
to respond by cutting its key interest rate for the
first
ORDINAL
Since
January
DATE
they're not moving in of itself isn't expected to be a game changer for
China
GPE
's economy wanna interest rate cut alone won't be enough to turn things around giving what's happening with COVID oh and giving what's happening with the real estate But the move does speak to how concerned authorities are but the depths and breath of the slowdown in
China
GPE
's economy and and are certainly not wasting any time now to pull whatever they can to try and put a floor on their thing. So a pretty negative read on
China
GPE
's economy and it does suggest ongoing down Pressure heading into
the second half of the year
DATE
. Yeah so I was gonna ask him what does it mean for what policy makers could do next we thought they were they weren't gonna do much from now on what does this cycle bring Well I think this is the big crash in the front scene exactly how will they respond until that event to respond with a kind of large scale stimulus that we might have seen in past down turns in
China
GPE
we know one covered oh to language hasn't They are willing to take some economic pain in return of course for the public health dividend of keeping the virus under control under real estate sector they clearly aren't bailing out or offering kind of broad scale bailout that you might have seen in the west for some of Trouble the property developers for example. So the question is what will pivot? Where will you turn come? It's probably gonna be less for focus or less for story but it's central bank and more and what will happen under government spending side of things local, local governments for example have already Spend more money on infrastructure projects so I think more of a story about fiscal than monetary going forward. So
Anda
PERSON
what does this mean for the global economy I think it has to be a negative front scene. Again, in past downturns, you could have relied on
China
GPE
. There'd be something of a cushion for global growth given its past record with putting stimulus into the economy and of course, it's own homegrown demand. That's not Or not is basically the
US
GPE
jobs market because
China
GPE
is offering the pillar of support that it has done in previous downturns. And I think too much are
Bloomberg
NORP
Chief
North Asia
LOC
correspondent in the current now it's getting to the key market drivers with
Wayley Black Rock
PERSON
Global Chief investment officer way as always thank you so much for joining us I have
one 1 million
CARDINAL
questions on something for conviction calls we'll look at valu Will it start with
China
GPE
? How worrisome is this for the global economy While there are few headwinds facing
China
GPE
this year
DATE
the COVID policy and also exports decreasing as well so thinking about global economies shifting from goods through services Would decrease the amount for export from
China
GPE
so we're actually expecting at both from
China
GPE
growing
this year
DATE
and
previous year
DATE
at meet teams decreasing to single no single digits
next 2 years
DATE
so all of that kind of had wins is also why we're seeing policy makers wanting to come out and We're not having a rosy expectation a full growth
this year
DATE
. Yeah, this was unexpect Right? I I mean I think we spoke to like 30,
40
CARDINAL
economists. I know and predicted that we get this from PBOC. Are are we going to see a much more active
PBS
ORG
Policy makers in general. Well, it's not just a
PBS
ORG
. Also the fiscal fiscal side of things but the reality is it's gone other days where we have excessive kind of easing leading to very unproductive projects. I think policy makers even got so Which is why our expectation for growth
this year
DATE
is with a
three
CARDINAL
handle
next year
DATE
with a
five
CARDINAL
handle and in terms of Average growth for
the next 2 years
DATE
or so. We're talking about Seven% average growth and if we have very strict policy on the COVID front then
this year
DATE
growth will be lower but because it's a restart
the next year
DATE
could be higher. Where we have a great chart actually looking at at you are sorry
Chinese
NORP
bonds. We don't often So I always keep on saying the treasure. I have to wake up. It's a
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
. I need a double espresso. Look at that. This is a
Chinese
NORP
bun. You can see that rally. Wait, do you Into any
Chinese
NORP
assets right now. While currently we're staying close to benchmark when it comes to
China
GPE
. Allocation where neutral and
China
GPE
accordance.
You Into any
Chinese
NORP
assets right now. While currently we're staying close to benchmark when it comes to
China
GPE
. Allocation where neutral and
China
GPE
equities were neutral.
China
GPE
bones. The benefits of holding especially
China
GPE
Portfolio as we can see is that when the rest of the world are hiking rates PVOC is cutting rates so there is a bit of a that versification benefit but the income potential that you'll pick up is erode as given how interest rates have developed
Far
ORG
this year
DATE
. Wait, I know we've been talking about the
60
CARDINAL
,
40
CARDINAL
portfolio, but what will be the the biggest shift actually for markets in
the next 6 months
DATE
? Well I think the focus really is around
Central Bank Central Policy
ORG
response and also inflation dynamics so so far we have seen
60 40
CARDINAL
tip or
60 40
CARDINAL
portfolios deeping
earlier in the year
DATE
and rebounding In recent in
recent weeks
DATE
we believe that this is a pair market rally we wouldn't want to chase that because we believe any pricing for
Dobish
NORP
pivot from
Central Banks
ORG
is a bit too premature at this point so where's the entry point The entry point while we want to see a proper acknowledgement from
Central Banks
ORG
especially the
fed
ORG
about the very tough trade off between growth and inflation as they make policy decisions at this point and we also want to see them choosing to leave with inflation. If they So we want to see acknowledgement and also choosing to live with inflation so Have only seen BLE doing that. So on
Tuesday
DATE
do that we do not cease sustained overage pivot and that's why we Residents to get back into the market. Alright, well, thanks so much. We'll either a black rock global chief investment strategist stays with us. We'll also talk about earnings and some of the outlier calls out there. Coming This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers in this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather we'll explore the science behind the recent
Wait
ORG
. More extreme than it is now. I'm afraid that's an inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills and until recently there's not been as much effort to try in educate people about the dangers of heat. Mitigate and adapt. Government Stimulate And and
Upsetting
GPE
. Headquarters in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
airing this On
Bloomberg TV
ORG
quick take ant online
What welcome back to the open everyone
11 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading day and you can see
European
NORP
stocks actually holding
Three
CARDINAL
tenths of eight% higher overall despite that surprise from
PBSE
ORG
and
China
GPE
. Now it's a big earnings
week
DATE
for
Europe
LOC
with some of the biggest or the confidence, biggest companies due to file reports in what is an increasingly challenging economic environment that is putting pressure on prices. For more, we're joined by
Bloomberg
ORG
's
April
DATE
road to
April
DATE
. Thank you again for joining us. So, how's the cost Crisis impacting the driven chemicals make ankle for example can we expect price increases Good
morning
TIME
. Yes. So
Hanko
GPE
reported slightly better than expected results
this morning
TIME
. The company was also able to raise its organic revenue forecast for
the full year
DATE
. It did however say that it's earnings were impacted by input cost headwinds And we've seen the ankle faces quite a bit of a dilemma and that it could sacrifice this margins to boost volume or could raise prices further which could potentially put longer term growth at risk. It's also a question of whether consumers will be willing to accept higher prices You know if management pisses prices too far then consumers could possibly swap to cheaper brands. So
April
DATE
when you're looking for example at beer makers including
Carlsberg
GPE
how are they expected to manage inflationary headwinds? Yes it calls back is the next big brewer schedule to report
this week
DATE
last week
Carsburg
GPE
raised its
4 year
DATE
outlook based on a strong business performance Recovery in
European
NORP
markets and strong results in many
Asian
NORP
markets as well. So be really interested to see how the the It's
first half year
DATE
results given rising commodity and energy cost pressures going into the second half of the year could be more challenging for
Carlsberg
GPE
as consumers faced rising Energy costs.
April
DATE
so corporate payments markets also becoming increasingly competitive. We have the
Dutch
NORP
payment firm Coming up with reports on
Friday
DATE
what can we expect from them? Yes, sir. Investors are set to be piling back in to text stocks which could be good news for add yen. The
Dutch
NORP
payment firm which handles transactions for companies like
Uber
ORG
, a
McDonald's
ORG
, ended
last year
DATE
on a really strong note. Coronavirus lockdowns when more people were spending That really helped adding gain it's market share and investors endless so I have also noted how ad in strong
US
GPE
presidents and its reputation there and the roll out of new products Still both well for positive growth. Thanks so much our April
Roach
PERSON
there was a very latest on some of these earnings now
Congress
ORG
pulled by
Bloomberg
PERSON
say the risk of a euro area recession has reached the highest levels
November 2020
DATE
. Still with us. Wait,
first
ORDINAL
of all, why don't we go back to maybe some of the earnings? And whether Such a lagging effect from when we have the earnings to what it tells about the future economy. Do you worry that
the next quarter
DATE
is a crunch Or a lot of companies. I think
next quarter
DATE
could be worse than what we have seen so far
this quarter
DATE
.
This past quarter
DATE
actually on the surface of things earnings are holding up as a big better And also if you strip out energy and financials actually earnings growth are close to flat right so there's some all performing sectors versus the broader markets not doing as well so Expect the a recession forecast for Euro area in particular translating into very little earnings growth that currently is not being forecasted. So does that mean Your portfolio way? Does it does it give us an you know an indication of what the economy could do in the future again? Is it too backward looking? Well, some of the only figures obviously they're back looking but their guidance are
You know an indication of what the economy could do in the future again is it too backward looking Well some of the owning figures obviously they are back looking but their guidance around kind of how well they can pass how much they can pass through the Course to and consumers their forecast around margins can give you a bit of a indication about future and our expectation is that margins would come under pressure with a rising production course with rising labor course and currently Companies are able to pass some of that rising production cost through to our consumers because for how long the eggs are that's the problem that's We're in a scarcity type of environment so they can do that now but we can't expect them to be able to do that The water levels of the rain. Everyone suddenly inexperient all of that. You know, they're not really basis and you really illustrates how tight these global gas markets are. Yeah, energy crisis is facing
Europe
LOC
in particular but actually the
Glowboy
NORP
economy as we had into a winter and we're looking at the very surreal Fact of energy rationing facing
Europe
LOC
right and this is why we have the expectation that we're going to had into a recession in
Europe
LOC
this side of what
this year
DATE
and then potentially growth stolen
next year
DATE
in the
US
GPE
. This is not price in the markets. In terms of equities, no, in terms of equities, Appropriately It is pricey in a mild version of growth slowing down which is why as we think about portfolio construction we prefer an app in quality adjustment to portfolios we prefer credit over accordance because the different degree to which they are pricing in the growth slowdown so it do make a difference between
European
NORP
equities to
USA
GPE
goodies and in all of this I mean do you need To Margie Mark is actually to find value. Well, currently we have a minus one allocation to
European
NORP
and
US
GPE
acquires on a scale of
minus three
CARDINAL
to plus three. So, modestly underweight because we're waiting for that doveish It on the sustained basis. There's not coming through and also earnings are a way to positive. We're broadly preferring credits over our equities and even including emerging market as well. We prefer emerging market that over emerging market equities. Thank Global chief investment strategist joining us
this morning
TIME
with everything about of course
China
GPE
, the
US
GPE
earnings, and energy. Now, let's get straight to the
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Here's
Laura
PERSON
, right? Hi,
Laura
PERSON
. Hi,
Francine
GPE
,
Saudi
NORP
,
Ronco
PERSON
, has posted the biggest quality profit of any listed company, anywhere. Net Rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter
DATE
up from
25 and a half
DATE
one 1 billion
a year earlier
DATE
the company is using the windfall to reduce debt and invest in a huge expansion of its production capacity see you I'm in
Nasa
ORG
says the company expects oil demand to continue growing for the rest of the
Japan
GPE
is economy recovered to its pre-pandemic size in
the second quarter
DATE
with growth picking up after COVID cubs were relaxed GDP grew at an annualized pace of
two
CARDINAL
. Two% below the economists medium forecast of
two
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
Consumer spending which accounts for
more than half
CARDINAL
of
Japan
GPE
's economic output leads the growth.
Tributes
GPE
are pouring in from Wall St and beyond for
Anshu Jane
PERSON
at the cantalfits
Gerald
ORG
president and former
Deutsche Bank
ORG
co CEO Beth was at the age of 59 and it was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. He's been credited with building deutsher banks, investment banking business, and turning the Global trading powerhouse.
Laura
PERSON
, thanks so much.
Laura
PERSON
, right in
London
GPE
. Now, coming up the
UK
GPE
's opposition labor party proposes an energy price cap freeze. There's a country faces its worst Of living a crisis in
decades
DATE
. We'll have plenty more on that story next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Economic policy symposium
2022
CARDINAL
economic policy symposium. Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving. Coverage starts
August 25
DATE
only on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio What's the best investment advice you've ever been given by anybody? Pound interest. The compounding of returns is an incredible miracle of business finance and human existence. Everything you learn is added to everyday and if you keep at it and don't quit. It's an incredible miracle and it's and it's not just interest it was it was always said about compound interest returns Compound business returns compound human returns They're all very additive cuz you'll burn every day and if you keep at it it's very very In your observation of ambassadors what do you think is the biggest mistake that it average investors make selling it a long time and they sell when the prices go down yes or yes not keeping People have conviction or the invest for their if they invest for the right reasons that just keep at it. Things that were independent. I'm
David Weston
PERSON
. We think that's the next secular shift. Renewables. This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio. The much more line
60 40
CARDINAL
portfolio.
60 40
CARDINAL
you know a portfolio. Or generally speaking for most investors would would make We'll make a comeback. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a base case. It still makes lot of sense.
That 40%
PERCENT
involves is probably close to
five or 10
CARDINAL
. I actually think they're increasing it pretty dramatically at the moment as is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your return because
6480
DATE
as I mentioned has been a challenging portrait construction exploiter to have.
Bloomberg
PERSON
gets there with their views on whether the
six
CARDINAL
240
CARDINAL
split will be to inflation. Now the
UK
GPE
's main opposition labor party wants to extend burns windfall tax, sun, oil, and gas companies with proceeds used to fund a total freeze on energy bills over the
winter
DATE
joining us now for more on this is our
Lizzy
PERSON
Bird and
Lizzy
PERSON
. What can we actually From
Kier Starmer
PERSON
today
DATE
. Well, he dominating the headlines for the
first
ORDINAL
time in a long time
today
DATE
. Kissed on a really responding to all his criticism that there's a policy vacuum. You've got a zombie government, And even the former prime minister
Gordon Browns
PERSON
weighed in with what he would do if he were in charge so finally we've got
Kier Starmer's
PERSON
plan he wants to continue the windfall tax which of course was originally
Labour
ORG
's idea and the conservatives adopted
What he would do if he were in charge so finally we've got
Kier Starmer's
PERSON
plan he wants to The windfall tucks which of course was originally labour's idea and the conservatives adopted and used that to help freeze energy bills which is really painful for consumers. This is what's adding to inflation. The bank of England sees it rising
above 13%
PERCENT
in
the fall
DATE
. Er but the fact that
Labor
ORG
's pushing for this really heaps pressure on the
two
CARDINAL
candi To replace
Boris Johnson
PERSON
because this is a popular idea. There's a mug of poll in the time
today
DATE
showing that it goes down very well with conservative voters in especially. Er and when you've got inflation high and companies breaking in the profits like
Aramco
ORG
. It just it goes down well with the vote. So it it influence Policy. Indeed. This policy before but
Liz Trust
PERSON
says that she doesn't she is not open to a new windfall tax so she's the front runner it's unlikely to happen if she wins and then Strikes something that we hadn't seen in the
UK
GPE
for a long time. Yeah it's been dubbed by the
UK
GPE
press
the summer
DATE
of discontent like the winter of discontent in
the 70s
DATE
. You've already had the transport strikes, the barristers, and now Doctors are threatening to strike as well. The
British
NORP
medical association says that over
the past 13 years
DATE
the doctors have had a
25%
PERCENT
pay cut. Trust says that the government has to take control to avoid a wage price spiral. But it's a difficult argument to make when the public sector isn't really in control of prices. It's not really contributing to a wage price spiral. But we're likely Get more data
this week
DATE
on jobs Still climbing so really the power's in the hands of the workers for now what's amazing is that we don't see actually labor behind any of the strikers Is that is it very difficult one for
Labour
ORG
because on the one hand this is the party of the unions but on the other hand it they're meant
Lizzy
PERSON
thanks so much
Lizzy
PERSON
Burden there Really just on the
UK
GPE
coming up water levels at a way point on
the Rhine River
LOC
expected to study at extremely low levels adding to
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch more of that story next this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Hey, eyes. Is the chance of humankind to really understand itself? How much of that is true?
AI is is the chance of humankind to really understand itself. How confident did you actually overachieve? Did you, you know, back then realize that we would be using AI in many different jobs? Was it slower or faster than you thought at the time? I think if I had a 35 or 40 here prediction task I would have been more or less on track as to where we are
today
DATE
but I would have predicted steady linear increase over time but instead the field Very minimal improvements until
the last 5 or 10 years
DATE
then it really took off I think we ended up in the right place but that was very wrong about the trajectory to this day we still know very little about how the brain works but this machines are getting ever more powerful I feel in some sense we did end up learning Now we can rule out many many things because AI or machine learning has become so good as so many things that what's left must be the key aspects of human intelligence. Why did the biggest names in business choose
Bloomberg
PERSON
? That is a great question. Great question. Great question. Great question. Hey Facebook Hey Facebook Hey Facebook Welcome back to the market open everyone we're
30 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading down here are your top stories surprise rate cards
China
GPE
unexpect Production The old.
532 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day that's the
daily
DATE
profit of oil producer
Sadie
PERSON
where I'm good in
the second quarter
DATE
the most ever by any listed company And investors look to this
week
DATE
's
fed minutes
FAC
and speakers including
Esther George
PERSON
and
Yokushkari
PERSON
what clues will they offer and whether the
FYMC
LOC
will go big with hikes
next month
DATE
So let's text well quickly take a look at what equities are doing interesting to see we're holding up to gains here in
Europe
LOC
with the stocks here
600
CARDINAL
games in
two
CARDINAL
tenths of eight%. The foods he also gaining in the
US
GPE
, a different story, because we're seeing quite a lot of pressure.
Two
CARDINAL
stories we need to follow, to follow very closely.
First
ORDINAL
of all,
China
GPE
, unexpectedly cutting interest rates ahead of the poor data, and the
European
NORP
Edging higher with oil and industrial metals actually declining. So, let's get to the
second
ORDINAL
health care and utilities on the app but basic resources insurance. Real estate it down
some six tenths
CARDINAL
of eight%. So,
European
NORP
power prices continue to hit new records amid the fallout from the
Ukraine
GPE
war with many of the continents leaders seeking altern Gas supplies and different energy sources altogether. Well, here's what some of our
Bloomberg
NORP
TV guests have been saying. This guest storage itself is not sufficient. We are facing a crisis at the moment. It's been produced by the cut off of
Russian
NORP
gas but it tells us yet again just how volatile and uncertain fossil fuel prices are. Yes prices will remain very high and it Me resolved that some disruption. We cannot magically get sort of
tens or hundreds
CARDINAL
of of bigger was of renewable energy before
winter
DATE
. So it is a matter of saving energy. It's a matter of securing sources. More obligatory measures to reduce to reduce consumption. The
first
ORDINAL
step obviously is to become independent
Russian
NORP
Which
Indians
NORP
can only be managed by additional imports mostly
LNG
ORG
. In the guest consumption by
about 10%
PERCENT
in the
EU
ORG
. Active this crisis will be that
Europe
LOC
will be further down the path to emissions reductions than it would otherwise be. Oh joining us now is
Bloomberg
PERSON
's energy reporter
Anna Shivaya
PERSON
Anna what's the latest with the
Further down the path to emissions reduction so it would otherwise be Oh joining us now is
Bloomberg
PERSON
energy reporter
Anna what
PERSON
's the latest with the
Rinewater
PERSON
levels and the impact this has on commandee Are indeed water levels at the
Rine River
LOC
drop to
just 30%
PERCENT
and
30 cm
QUANTITY
Hey 11.
8 inches
QUANTITY
today
DATE
that's a lower than a expected already on
Friday
DATE
and this low level is expected to remain until
at least the middle of this week
DATE
that's handbrake supply of vital commodities I just call to
Switzerland
GPE
You have to rely on Gas prices increase So and
Germany
GPE
has also outlined measures in that saving energy or are there different details to the blueprint we had
a couple of months ago
DATE
? Or indeed that
Germany
GPE
sticks to
Germany
GPE
that's
2 weeks
DATE
ahead of the schedule But still
Germany
GPE
just want to make sure that there is no disruption in the winter especially it's still unknown what's going to happen with
Russian
NORP
gas flows ehm so yes the journey knows proposing to lower temperature in offices to the
19
CARDINAL
ยฐC for the winter just to make sure of you conserve energy Over and avoid supply chases at the peak demon time And overall we talk about
the Ryan River
LOC
so much does this just point to the fact that this market is so tight that even something that in the past would have been quite small just takes
Proportions
ORG
. Indeed, it's not, it's not, it's often doesn't as you do have, lower levels in mine, almost every summer you have this situation. Much worse so that level As low as in the eight in
many years
DATE
. Supplies from
Russia Going
ORG
at
just 20%
PERCENT
of the positive I keep pipeline lost stream so they just have less gas available so that's queen size and overall I need you crisis ongoing in Europe Great thanks so much for it's a great insight to Anna sure yes they are there with very latest on energy now let's stay with the energy story joining us now as we get it at
La Vina
FAC
he said of energy
Research at Golden Sox
ORG
. Thank you for joining us. I mean, we've had a pretty incredible couple of weeks in terms of energy prices on the price pressures. When does this pressure ease off if it does? I think
Francine
PERSON
is gonna be very difficult For the pressure to is off because we've been under investing in the energy system pretty much since
2014
DATE
and although we can take a more positive outlook to all of this and think that this is the chance for
Europe
LOC
to create a more independent energy system with renewable with green hydrogen with bio energy Really be a transformational moment for
Europe
LOC
but on the other side I think the solution doesn't come in the short term it will take
years
DATE
to rebuild a more independent energy supply any in the meantime they difficult to find
LNG
ORG
will continue Wait on the
European
NORP
gas prices. So so how much tighter do you believe the markets could get? I think it will all depend on how this winter pans out
Last winter
DATE
we were actually quite lucky it was a very warm
late winter
DATE
which really saved us problems in
the spring this year
DATE
we don't yet know how the weather is going to look and we also don't know how much
Russia
GPE
will ultimately import in the export in the core of winter so my sense is we are The time of key uncertainty
Russia
GPE
certainly wants
Europe
LOC
to feel uncertain and anxiety around the winter and I think we will be
Russia
GPE
certainly wants
Europe
LOC
to feel uncertain and anxiety around the winter and I think we will need to see it
month
DATE
by
month
DATE
we have a solution for the long term it's renewables and green hydrogen based but in the near term and fortun Subject to the market for a few Nikki when you look at reimagining
Europe
LOC
's energy system which I know you've written extensively about how long does this take? Is there a timeline impossibility of that you know we're trying to wean ourselves of fresh and gas but this takes
years
DATE
. I think
Francine Hey
PERSON
portal was leaving the Share was developed and
today
DATE
the
US
GPE
is
one
CARDINAL
of the most energy advantage countries in the world. I think
Europe
LOC
can achieve the same in a similar time frame. It would take
about 10 years
DATE
for renewables and green hydrogen to become big enough to start to really Ring because down in
Europe
LOC
but we think this could mean a
5060
DATE
percent saving to the
European
NORP
consumer and the handling of the energy import on a tenya basis. It could be a complete positive revolution of the
European
NORP
energy system So but that means what exactly so who would be the biggest winners and losers in this? I think the biggest winner so would ultimately be a consumer and the industry in the long term and in the near term the utilities and the big energy companies including the oil and gas majors who can develop this infrastructure any structure based on solar and wind mostly in Bandage countries idea and so the
Europe
LOC
for solar
UK
GPE
and the
Baltix
PERSON
full of show wind a connection of this systems and then
Hydrogen
GPE
industry which really I think is at the core of all of these to make sure we can face seasonality but also allow heavy transport and heavy in the street to utilize this renewable power and the energy system The energy carpets names that I think will be advantaged in all of these because it's carpets that we need something we haven't seen for
the last 7 years
DATE
. Yeah. But
Mickey
PERSON
give me a sense of how much money we need to do this transition. I think I mean this is over is it over
10 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
is it and does
the European Union
ORG
can they afford to pay that much? Absolutely the number is
10 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
that's what we need to complete transform the
European
NORP
energy system out to
2050
DATE
and in the meantime achieve
90
CARDINAL
carbon so achieve the
two
CARDINAL
core goals of
Europe
LOC
and for the End. And The cost per hour the peak would be
around 200 1 billion
MONEY
so it would be comparable in size to what we've seen with the recovery time effectively it would be an extend in extension of the recovery Into the future with a bias towards energy and organization. We think it's achievable and with the right regulation we think the pride that there is in our private capital they can be unlocked. This developments. So we get this is by
2050
DATE
. What needs to happen
the next 2 years
DATE
for us to hit that goal? I think what needs to happen in
the next 2 years
DATE
is supportive, clear, Regulation. They support renewables and the green hybrid. In renewables I think we already have a good framework across
Europe
LOC
. But we need I think more support for green high attention and we need the better connectivity in
Europe
LOC
. We are talking now of the gas pipeline that goes from
portugal
GPE
all
Germany
GPE
I think we also need the better integration of power we need power grids that can go west to east and north to south and also we need in the longer term green
We need power grids that can go west to east and north to south and also we need in the long term green hydrogen pipelines that do the same. We need connectivity because we need the low cost renewable producers in
Europe
LOC
to be able to supply the rest of
Europe
LOC
With cheap attractive renewable power and hydrogen. Nikita as always thanks so much for joining us
Michele
PERSON
. Energy industry research at
Coleman Sax
ORG
. Now, coming up
Saturday
DATE
around Cost, the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of any listed company ever will have the details next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. For the future work is where the industry and all companies will be heading. Immersive experiences that have a sense of active presence.
One 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
market by
the end of this decade
DATE
. And whether you know it or not you'll probably be working there in the future. Removing into a world where we're gonna be interacting with computers with our bodies. Definitely trippy. I think the adoption curve is gonna be slow. It's weird. Thing right now. Oh, look at you. If you have no legs. It's kind of a fun world and we're just at the very beginning of a very long journey.
Japan
GPE
's critical role in the global economy is changing as the world recalibrates.
Japan
GPE
's leaders are boarding a more innovative and sustainable path forward to revitalize the nation.
Giants
ORG
policy makers and pioneers tell us how they're doing just that.
Every week
DATE
on
Japan
GPE
ahead right here on Bloomberg Television. You have to be able to give our customers vehicles you know that are their primary vehicles that are EVs and be able to do that. We need to have range and infrastructure and we need to remove the pain points and so that's what we're doing. Welcome back to the open everyone we are
44 minutes
TIME
since the
European
NORP
trading a bit of a reversal or certainly bitter pressure on the dicks overall we're more or less holding on to our games one Higher for
European
NORP
stocks. So, focus. Of course, is on
China
GPE
and the previously surprising with that cut because the economy is worse than expected, especially when it comes to house prices in
China
GPE
. Now, to corporate The biggest portrait adjusted profit of any listed company ever driven by high crude prices and production. Oh
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Middle East
LOC
energy market reporter and through the
Palo
GPE
joins us now. So
Anthony
PERSON
, what exactly is behind around 'cuz record profit? Is there anything apart from higher oil price? Hi, good
morning
TIME
. Yeah, the high all price is the main factor here. That really boosted the earnings of not only Ramco but a lot of the international oil companies. We also saw some games from the downstream segment which is the refining creating oil, excuse me, gasoline, diesel, those kind of tricks.
We also saw some games from the downstream segment which is the refining creating oil excuse me gasoline diesel those kind of transportation fuels we saw that demand surge in
the last couple of months
DATE
with Shortage of those products as people came out of the pandemic shutdowns started moving around again getting back to the office continuing to order things so we did see a lot of tightness on the refining sector and those earnings really jumped up and that that did help boost our profit however it is really that that cru Production sales that that really made
the quarter
DATE
for them francing. So I think how will they be spending their money? Do we know what they're investing in? Were they investing on expanding the capacity to produce more oil they have a couple of natural gas projects going on which will help them in terms of providing gas to industry in the kingdom for air conditioning for petrochemicals but really they're expanding that oil production capacity from
12 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
a day capacity now To
13 1 million barrels
QUANTITY
a day buy that 2027 so they're pretty a lot of cash into that it actually investment is gonna be an increase but there they should be on the low end of their forecasted cap X for
this year
DATE
looking at about maybe
40 1 billion dollars
MONEY
for
the year
DATE
and they were close to about
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
for
the quarter so so
DATE
Or increasing spending but but not by as much as they could potentially fren So and then give me a sense of what I would investors are looking to hear from management in terms of future plans Yeah, well, potentially about the dividend. We are hearing from some analyst talking even to
Bloomberg
PERSON
television
only this morning
TIME
. That they expect dividend increase, later on
this year
DATE
, a rent code did give some Wanna shares out
two
CARDINAL
investors but that was a kind of a small bump some investors maybe looking for more information about what the dividend policy is could orenko increase that with these bumper profits the fact that they have brought down debt they have they're they're not gonna be maxing out on what they could have done on So maybe that gives them a little bit of room here. So we'll see what a room management says
two
CARDINAL
investors in analysis in a call later on today
Francine
PERSON
. Great thank you so much
Bloomberg
NORP
Middle East
LOC
energy markets reporter he's Now let's get straight to the bloom group.
First
ORDINAL
word news with
Laura Wright
PERSON
. Hi
Laura
PERSON
. Hi
France
GPE
in
China
GPE
.
Central Bank
ORG
has unexpectedly cut its key interest rates. As it runs up support for an economy way down by COVID lockdowns. The need for additional stimulus was Estimates Water levels are at a way point on
the Ryan River
LOC
are expected to steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
adding
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch. Many bargains can't transit past the marker point west of
Frankfurt
GPE
when the water level is below
40 cm
QUANTITY
according to government data it's already at around
35 cm
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to
30 cm
QUANTITY
today
DATE
. The
UK
GPE
is opposition labor party has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's windfall tax on oil and gas companies to fund a total freeze on energy bills over the winter
Today
DATE
we'll put pressure on the government
4200
CARDINAL
lb by
January
DATE
Salmon
NORP
rushty is starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being stabbed at a lecture in
New York AP
GPE
has quoted his agent saying we author is now on the road to recovery rushty is said to have been removed from a ventilator on
Sunday
DATE
and is now able to talk it Of the satanic versus suffered serious injuries on
Friday
DATE
after being stabbed multiple times shortly after taking the stage Tribute are pouring in for Wall St and beyond for
Andrew Jane
PERSON
the candle fits child president at former
Deutsche Bank
ORG
co CEO
Jane
PERSON
's death at the age of
50
DATE
Was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. He's been credited with building deutsher banks investment banking business and turning the germ and lender into a global trading power Global news
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Bloomberg Laura
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thanks so much
Laura
PERSON
to in
London
GPE
now coming up
US
GPE
lawmakers
London Taiwan
PERSON
for
2 day
DATE
visit testing
China
GPE
's reaction after house speaker
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
went
earlier this month
DATE
we'll have plenty more on that story shortly and this is
Bloomberg
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.
This month
DATE
as the world watches inflation rise employment rebound and fiscal policies react all roads lead to
Jackson
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television and radio. When you think space you probably think One space agency that travels under the radar is easter. Which is surprising considering what
European
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space agency is achieved and how vital it is to the global space industry. Please collaborate with pretty much everybody who is involved in space expiration. But
Issa
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wants to be a leading force in furthering humanity's mission inter space. Missions to
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LOC
. We are going to have to learn, to live, and work off world in a different way. The place where we are going to the to do that is on the moon. Hey
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help humanity take its next giant leap
Ken Griffin
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is moving both Citadel and Citadel Securities to
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let's go Welcome back to the open everyone well
53 minutes
TIME
into the
European
NORP
trading day and actually we're seeing not a reversal certainly tempering Of the gangs that we saw earlier in the session
European
NORP
stocks now what gaining
one
CARDINAL
.
One
CARDINAL
10th of eight% the tax down
one 10th of April
DATE
Now
US
GPE
congressional delegation has landed in
Taiwan
GPE
for
2 day
DATE
visit testing
China
GPE
's reaction after house speaker
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
went to
earlier this month
DATE
the trip could complic For teaching ping and
Joe Biden
PERSON
to meet
later this year
DATE
what joining us now is
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Bruce Einhort
PERSON
so Bruce
first
ORDINAL
of all what are the latest details about this delegation and
China
GPE
's response? What
Francine
PERSON
so this is the
first
ORDINAL
delegation since the visit by
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
of course the speaker the house
Response. What
Francine
PERSON
so this is the
first
ORDINAL
delegation since the visit by
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
of course the speaker of the house the
first
ORDINAL
speaker to go to
Taiwan
GPE
in
quarter of a century
DATE
so it was yeah A very big deal. This on the other hand is Senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
who's senior senator for
Massachusetts
GPE
. Who is known as a climate hawk. It doesn't have a high position in in the
senate
ORG
. He's chairman of the subcommittee Foreign relations committee in charge of
Pacific
LOC
but I'll do respect to
Ed Markey
PERSON
no
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
so the question is are you how was
China
GPE
gonna react to this given that this
First
ORDINAL
visit since since she arrived and when she went they followed with
days
DATE
and
days
DATE
of military exercise Yeah I thought we're expecting more military exercises. Yes so the
Chinese
NORP
defense ministry has announced
today
DATE
just within
the last hour
TIME
that there are more exercises taking place unlike last time they haven't specified the exclusion zones areas where there
Chinese
NORP
Would be conducting the exercises so we don't have a whole lot of detail but it is important because it does show that this may be the new normal for for the way that
Beijing Visits
ORG
to
Taiwan
GPE
in the past there'll be congressional visits and we wouldn't really hear about it there was a visit by the chairman of the foreign Certainly not at the level that we're now seeing so it's possible that this may be the way that
China
GPE
deals with things in the in the new era after the
Nancy Pelo Visit
PERSON
. It is worth noting though that the other significance of this visit is it does show the strong bipartisan support for
Taiwan
GPE
in the
US
GPE
Congress
ORG
even after the visit by
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
and concerns about whether it's Leading to more tensions clearly from from the way things look in
Washington
GPE
there's a whole lot upside to showing support for
Taiwan
GPE
.
Great Bruce
ORG
thanks so much
Brucelyn Horn
PERSON
there with a very latest on
China
GPE
and
Taiwan
GPE
now that's it for the
European
NORP
market open so this is where we are overall surveillance early edition
Commodities
ORG
also from oil and iron or falling after some disappointing data and a surprising interest rate cut from
China
GPE
further crowded the outlook About economy treasury yields taking up higher the bond curve a remaining deeply inverted pointing to worries that the feds campaign of monetary tightening against high inflation or spark a
US
GPE
recession dollar gaining this is
Bloomberg
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There is an epic saying in
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when it comes to family generations that the
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generation destroys And that's almost what happened in the
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story. So hit and love together. Now I would have been watching my experience about for those of who says I love you.
In the
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story. Now I would have much more experience about for those of who says I love you and then this radio. The
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's really teatering on the brink at this stage. The difference between political gossip And policy intelligence.
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bringing you the business data and innovators fighting climate change. Reinventing climate news on TV quick take ant
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. Com Ask these surprise interests record
this morning
TIME
seems to be suggesting policy makers are concerned and they want to make a gesture
10
CARDINAL
basic points that is almost like not a big deal right it's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care How far the fat had to go?
Bloomberg Surveillance
PERSON
. Well, good morning everyone and welcome to
Bloomberg Surveyance
PERSON
. You're in
London
GPE
and here's what's coming up on
today
DATE
's program. Surprise rate cards,
China
GPE
, unexpectedly lowest key barring costs, retail sales, and industrial production miss forecast.
Slump
ORG
. Most ever by any listed company and investors look to this
week
DATE
's
Fed Minutes
FAC
and speakers including
Esther George
PERSON
and
Neil Kashkari
PERSON
what cruise will they offer and whether the
FYMC
LOC
will go big with hikes
next month
DATE
now first thing is first so let's check on the market so we'll get treasuries we'll look at of course
European
NORP
stocks getting someone
10th
ORDINAL
of eight% or some of We saw earlier on the trading session where we saw three tens of eight% gains are abating somewhat now oil ironor a lot of the energy complex actually falling off some disappointing data but also the surprise interest rate cut from
China
GPE
could further put pressure on the outlook for the global economy and technology On the high
Bloomberg
GPE
US dollar index
1264
DATE
. So interesting to look at treasuries as the inverted yield curve continues to invert. So if you look at the bond curve remaining deeply inverted again points to worries that
the federal reserve campaign
ORG
of
Montre
PERSON
tightening against time flation will spark a
US
GPE
Let's go to the
European
NORP
map to see if there's any a big difference between for example a
Germany
GPE
and the
Footsy
PERSON
here in the
UK
GPE
and you can see the Dax down
winter
DATE
of eight% the footsy gaining
one 10th
CARDINAL
of eight% But not huge a variation for the countries. Now
China
GPE
's economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in
July
DATE
as
French
NORP
COVID outbreaks across the country. Wait on consumer business spending, clouding the growth outlook and prompting the central bank to deliver a Interest rate. Here's what some of our guests have been saying. Data are not exactly very pretty. Perform very strong. It's almost like not a big deal, right? It's But at least it shows that they care. Continues by virgin performance across industries. Those policy tailwinds
Deal, right? It's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care. We're going to see continue style virgin performance across industries. Those policy tailwing sectors like infrastructure, manufacturing, new energy cars, these actually will perform much more strongly. This We're probably lucky to go to see
two
CARDINAL
to three% growth in the
Chinese
NORP
economy. Who won
Xi Jinping
PERSON
gets through
the 20th
DATE
party?
Congress
ORG
.
This October, November
DATE
, will there be a course correction on the economy or not? Not for more and all of this let's bring in our
Bloomberg
GPE
Chief
Asia
LOC
correspondent Key takeaway from the data this morning Weakness across the board from seeing
July
DATE
was meant to be a month of recovery
the second quarter to third quarter
DATE
was meant to be better Actually we saw weakness and retail sales in industrial output in investment or public spending still outships private spending with more bad news on the property market in terms of both investment and highest prices on sales and all of that is what The essential bank to respond by cutting their key interest rate for the
first
ORDINAL
time Genreing it up move by the central bank certainly won't be in and over itself a game changer for
China
GPE
's economy but it does speak to the idea that the authorities now are quite concerned about the breath and depths of the downturn across the economy under going to pull whatever they can They're trying to arrest that So how are policy makers respond to this from now and I mean the the current wasn't significant but it kind of showed a result from the fact from you know policy makers in What will happen with COVID oh and what will happen with the property market and on COVID oh the authorities have been consistent about sticking with this a very aggressive approach approach approach you controlling the disease they want to get that public health dividend and to do so they're willing to have or Hey economic pain Developers are into other channels to get money into the housing market trying to rev up activity there. I think it's going to be less of story about Will we see more spending at local government level for example so I think big questions about policy in
the coming months
DATE
and a big question about when that pivot might come. What does that mean for the global economy under? I think at the very least
Francine
PERSON
you have to say
China
GPE
isn't the much of a pillar of support for a global growth right now we had the IMF warning
only a few weeks ago
DATE
that the world economy is under brink of a recession Has a strong job market but unlike down to past downturns when
China
GPE
certainly was there to rev up global demand through That isn't happening this time around and it's clear that
China
GPE
isn't going to be a dynamo for a global recovery. Thank you so much and the current there was a very latest of course on the
Chinese
NORP
and world economy. Now, for more in all of this, we're doing A global macro economist that
fidelity international
ORG
and how do you Look of course at this surprise cut in the global context Morning friends and I do agree
tomorrow
DATE
for signal. It's not a game changer. But I think the authorities wanted to surprise the market and send that signal and that was pretty successful but from The focus is really on On focus is on oh code policy and as long as those restrictions are in place it's hard to be much more optimistic from here. So Anna what does that mean for a repercussions on the global economy? Yeah I think this is quite a interesting because we clearly have developed markets heading into quite an abs slow down or recession places and
Chinese
NORP
not going to cushion that blow to the global economy
China
GPE
might To exporting descentation but it's also just the exporting low growth. And that is not helping. And I think this policy differentials between
Dam Central Banks
ORG
, particularly the feds, and previously. We'll meet even stronger Here which is quite hard for the rest of the economy as we know particularly for major market
Hey We'll mean even stronger dollar from here which is quite hard for the rest of the economy as we know particularly for major Hmm. Overall when you look at emerging market it's How much pressure how difficult will it get for a lot of them that are also very tight to the dollar
next 6 months
DATE
? Yeah I think it will be very difficult particularly given there being hit by a multitude of shocks they were in
Ukraine
GPE
of course related to increase in the energy and agricultural prices and now the increasing cost of funding and the feathers is just focus For the time being on the domestic one and the domestic noted this update actually but the hard data strong so far and so there will keep on pressing with the hooker stands with more hikes putting more and more pressure on emoji market so I think maybe not in the very short term but in the mid from here we Stresses across emoji markets potentially some some dead crisis as well. Dead crisis are there you know countries at the moment that you're warning investors not Into a get out of. Well not not for the campaign not specific countries but I think we clearly know the ones that are very much exposed in our countries like
Turkey
GPE
,
Egypt
GPE
, and some
Asian
NORP
countries in the need of very much exposed to the current shocks. I think there might have When you look at dollar does it go ever higher from here what's a catalyst for it to retrace some of their games? And looking at the financial conditions we do thing that this is very disturbing for the
fed
ORG
. They have east. And there is a massive guard between what we're seeing in the and what we're seeing in the market. As you know, the markets have rallied so much. They are looking through all the troubles, all the shocks, and this is probably my tip for the
fed
ORG
. So, the more easy we see in the financial conditions, the more tightening the the fat will have to do. And in fact, you know, maybe rate That means the dollar will be high until that pivot comes. And I think so much and I've gather a global microcommance have
fidelity international
ORG
stays with us we'll talk a lot more of course about the
fed
ORG
and your energy and your but coming up we also preview some of the big earnings reports you from
Europe Including
WORK_OF_ART
the
German
NORP
chemical giant hang call as price pressures start to pinch that story is next and this is
Bloodberg
PERSON
. Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers in this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather What are the science behind the recent heat wave? Now I'm afraid that's inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills in until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. And solutions for the planet to mitigate and adapt. We need government
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surreal and certainly additional front team like where you're in
London
GPE
. Now, it's also Earnings week for
Europe
LOC
with some of the continent's biggest reports due to file and what is an increasingly challenging economic environment that's putting pressure on price
Baltimore
GPE
. We're joined by
Bloomberg
ORG
's
April Road
ORG
to
April
DATE
. Great to have you back on again. So, how's the cost of the crisis impacting? For example,
German
NORP
chemicals maker hangle. Good
morning
TIME
. Yes. So, hang on report is slightly better than expected results
this morning
TIME
. The company also raises organic revenue forecast for
the year
DATE
. It did have a warm that it's earnings were impacted by input cost headwinds. And A bit of a dilemma in that it can either sacrifice its margins to boost volume or raise prices further which could potentially put longer term growth at risk and it's also a question of whether consumers will be willing to accept Those you know potential price increases because of management versus prices too far they're consumers could potentially swap to cheaper brands. So how's
Carlsboro
PRODUCT
on the other spectrum? Beer maker, expect to manage some of the inflation or head wings. Who has that pricing power? Yes it calls book is the next big brewer schedule to report
this week
DATE
the company
last week
DATE
raised its
4 year
DATE
outlook based on a strong business performance To date. Strong on trade recovery in
European
NORP
markets and strong results in many
Asian
NORP
markets as well it also added that these factors more than offset commodity and energy cost pressures in
the first Of the year
DATE
but going into the second half of the year could be a bit more challenging for
Carlsberg
GPE
as consumers face rising energy costs. So corporate payments maker for example increasingly more competitive how what are we expecting from
Adi
PERSON
and the
Dutch
NORP
Firm. Yes so investors are set to be piling back into text stocks which could be really good news for
Series
EVENT
of
monthly
DATE
declines and the
Dutch
NORP
payment firm as you said which handles transactions for companies like
Uber
ORG
and
McDonald
ORG
's ended On a really strong note online shopping during coronavirus lockdown's really helped add in gain it's market share and invest and analyst have also pointed out that
Adjan
GPE
's And growing Presents and reputation and also the roll out of new products still both well for positive growth for
AJN
ORG
.
April
DATE
thanks so much April
Roach
PERSON
there with some of the biggest earnings reports
later this week
DATE
now let's get back to Global macro economist at
Fidelity International
ORG
. Anna, what's your take on
Fed
ORG
? So, we'll get on to earnings and I guess read across onto your world. But are we expecting too much from the
fed
ORG
? They can't really fix a supply shock inflation. It can't but they need to keep hiking to control inflation expectations and we have seen some reduction in meditation expectations in market based measures not so much yet in in serving consumer-based measures and I think this is what they're looking at. This is The targeting. Those hikes will likely continue. Until again that growth damage, particularly in the labor market, becomes more of this. And
Until again that growth damage particularly in the labor market becomes more obvious and dental inflation starts declining as well. We know it's it's softer the last prince was softer already. But it's mainly on the headline for the time being. So From the pad to come at least until
the end of this year
DATE
. So I know that you have a
70%
PERCENT
probability of a hard landing scenario. Do you I mean can leave and avoid a hard landing at this point I think it would be very hard maybe they Obviously financial conditions heavy so I think that could potentially mean the
US
GPE
goes into very mild recession but recession of the last But if they continue hiking Together with what's happening in
Europe
LOC
, what's happening in
China
GPE
. I think that probability of avoiding that hard landing is pretty low. If you see a significant downturn Anna in
US
GPE
Where'd you look at it first would you look at activity or do you look at productivity or housing? While we are looking at the soft day to the soft data now across the board signaling significant weakness going to the levels that we saw in the in the in the last recession so I the COVID recession Global financial crisis particularly driven by consumer but we're seeing that in the industry
Services Data
ORG
is very very soft. But how date is still pretty strong so what we are looking at is actually battling the translation of this softness into her data and of course it's the labor market
first
ORDINAL
of And Your take on
Europe
LOC
it seems that a lot of the markets are actually quite complacent because we talk about you know industry by industry certain industries having to shut down because we don't have enough gas especially going to But that doesn't seem to be priced in. Yeah it's it's strange I think it's it's becoming consensus of course the
European
NORP
recession I think we have believed in it for a while now but the question is still on the depth on the duration on the timing but markets are complete and it's hard to be really out of consensus here they are complacent we see
Potential
PERSON
a shark of course to the corner but to the whole of the
Europe
LOC
area the world of
three
CARDINAL
to four% but potentially up to five% in
Germany
GPE
given all the headwinds so it's it's hard to see how
Marcus
LOC
can continue railing given Duration. Been the headlines all the time but still that the this phase of the war is likely to be even more intense than than we have seen as the
Ukrainian
NORP
forces are trying to retake some of the territory in the south and that means more disruptions on the energy front and and more shocks to growth. Thank you so much and I'm very important reminder from
Anna Global
PERSON
macro convo set
fidelity international
ORG
. Now, coming up market's like just a data coming out of
China
GPE
. We show it's economic recovery, unexpectedly weakening in
July
DATE
. So, we'll get the latest on that story next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Economic policy symposium Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving. Coverage starts
August 25
DATE
only on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio.
So what's the best investment advice you've ever been given by anybody? Pound interest the compounding of returns is an incredible miracle of business finance and human existence Everything you learn is additive
every day
DATE
and
Keep
PERSON
added and don't quit. It's an incredible miracle and it's and it's not just interest it was it was always said about compound interest returns Compound business returns compound human returns They're all very additive cuz you'll learn every day and if you keep at it it's very very
Helpful
NORP
. In your observation of investors, what do you think is the biggest mistake that average investors make? Selling it a long time. And they shall when the prices go down. Yes, or yes. Not keeping Of people have conviction or they invest for their if they invest for the right reasons that just keep at it. Hi to the biggest names in business choose
Bloomberg
PERSON
that is a great question Hey Hey Glad you said. Oh the much more line
60 40
CARDINAL
portfolio
60 40
QUANTITY
you know a portfolio for generally speaking for most investors would would make sense because at some stage you're on market will make a campaign. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a Hey it still makes lot of sense. Probably close to
five
CARDINAL
or 10. I actually think they're increasing it pretty dramatic to you at the moment as is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your return because
60 40
DATE
. As I mentioned, it's been a challenging portfolio construction exploiter to have
Bloomberg Guester
PERSON
with their reviews on whether
the 60 40s
DATE
will be inflation. Let's get straight to the
Bloomberg
ORG
.
First
ORDINAL
word news, here's the end gear. Hi,
Leanne
ORG
. Hi,
Francine
PERSON
. Water levels had a key wave point on
the Rhine River
LOC
are expected to steady at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
and into
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch. Many bargains cannot Zip past the marker at a point west of
Frankfort
LOC
when the water level is below a
40 cm
QUANTITY
according to government data it has already
about 35 centimetres
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to Centimetres
today
DATE
. Hey. Us congressional delegation landed in
Taiwan
GPE
for a
2 day
DATE
visit
yesterday
DATE
. They are set to meet with
Taiwanese
NORP
president saying
Wang
ORG
and the other lawmakers. The trip at risks keeping tensions with
China
GPE
high off the house speaking anti
Pelosi
GPE
's recent visit to the region the
UK
GPE
's opposition
Party
ORG
has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's winfall tax on oil and gas companies to fund a total freeze on energy bills and
To the region the
UK
GPE
's opposition labor party has proposed extending
Britain
GPE
's wonderful tax on oil and gas companies to fund at total freeze on energy bills over the
winter
DATE
the plan to be announced by the leader
Kia Stama
PERSON
later today
TIME
will put renewed pressure on the government to
Energy
ORG
bill could top
4200
CARDINAL
lb by
January
DATE
Selman
PERSON
rush day starting to recover
2 days
DATE
after being starved at a lecture in
New York AP
GPE
has put it as agents saying the author is now on the road to recovery rush day is said to have been removed from a ventilator on And is now able to talk the author of the controversial novel the satanic verses suffered serious injuries on
Friday
DATE
after being stabbed multiple times shortly after taking the stage tributes are pouring in for Wall St and beyond for a nut
Jane
PERSON
the canter fits
Gerald
PERSON
president and former
Deutsche Yo Jane's
PERSON
death at the age of
50
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer he's been credited with building
Deutsche Banks
ORG
investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse
Global News
WORK_OF_ART
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take Powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists sent on the list in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries and the Annegarin's this is
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a fancy We'll have a full round up of that news. There's that word How are you doing? Immersive experiences that have a sense of active presence. Wow, look at this.
One 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
market by
the end of this decade
DATE
. And whether you know it or not you'll probably be working there in the future. Removing into a world where we're gonna be interacting with computers with our bodies. Definitely trippy. I think the adoption curve is gonna be slow. It's weird. Thing right now. Oh, look at you. If you have no legs. Have to be able to give our customers vehicles you know that are their primary vehicles that are EVs and be able to do that. We need to have range and infrastructure and we need to remove the paint points and so that's what we're doing. It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see
You need to remove the pain points and so that's what we're doing It's a really reminder isn't it just how sensitive the markets are to any commentary about trade we did see some pressure on the
UN
ORG
we did see some pressure on the future that is now being reverse Surprise rate cuts well
China
GPE
unexpectedly lowers key barring cost size retail sales and industrial production is forecast that you want
532 1 million dollars
MONEY
a day that's the
daily
DATE
profit of oil producer
Saddy Ramco
PERSON
and
the second quarter
DATE
the most ever by any listing company An investors look to this
week
DATE
's
fed minutes
FAC
and speakers including
Esther George
PERSON
and What cruise will they offer and whether the
FMC
ORG
will go big with heights
next month
DATE
Well good morning everyone and welcome to
Bloombrook Surveillance
PERSON
early edition I'm pronouncing like we're here in
London
GPE
this is what the market is telling us no we're seeing a bit of a reversal from the early games that we had here in
European
NORP
stocks when you look at
US
GPE
stocks futures actually pointing to a lower start we didn't have some gloomy
China
GPE
economic outlook that's cooling some Campaign of monitoring policy tightening against high inflation that actually spark
US
GPE
recession I'm looking at dollar Oil and gas companies with proceeds to fund a total freeze on energy bills over
the winter
DATE
. Now, joining us now is
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Lizzy Burden
PERSON
as we look also at some of those tabloids
today
DATE
. So,
first
ORDINAL
of all,
Lizzy
PERSON
, what can we expect from
Pure Starmer
PERSON
? Well, he's already on the media round
this morning
TIME
. He's dominating the front pages as you can see there which is rare for
Kier Starmer
PERSON
. It's not often he does But this is because he's been so criticized for not taking advantage of the policy vacuum left by
Boris Johnson's
PERSON
zombie government. He's a lame duck until the
fifth
ORDINAL
of Really even
Gordon Brown
PERSON
the former prime minister has come in and told us what he would do if he were in charge so finally
Starmer
PERSON
setting out his plan telling us that he would raise this windfall tax again of course this was originally a labor idea that the conservatives took so he would want to do it again and use the money to help freeze the energy bills Causing the pain for consumers really. And
Lizzy
PERSON
over I mean this this will have a part implication as the
two
CARDINAL
candidates vine to be prime minister. I guess it could take it on board. It certainly puts pressure on them too.
Liz
PERSON
trust there was said that she wouldn't introduce a new infall tax. Wish she soon actually is open to the idea and he's done it before. So if he did when he could do But it doesn't look good for the conservatives to yet again be stealing labor's clothes being on the back floor It's not just transport anymore. The strikes. It's also the barristers, the doctors are threatening to strike. This has been dubbed by the
UK
GPE
press as the summer of discontents who'd just like the
1970
DATE
's
winter
DATE
of discontent. The reason is that unions say because look at inflation it's set to hit
more than 13
CARDINAL
Try and use that bargaining power. The jobs in inflation data
this week
DATE
are set to show that the labor market still tight inflation still rising to the the workers should have the upper hand But trust says that she if she were in power she would see it as her job to control weed rises yeah it's a difficult argument When the public sector isn't really the one that's responsible for the price rises yeah so true
Lizzy
PERSON
thanks so much
Lizzy
PERSON
Burn in there with a very latest under the
UK
GPE
now
China
GPE
's economic recovery unexpectedly weekend in Across the country wait on consumer and business spending the growth outlook and prompting the central bank to deliver a surprise interest rate cut
the house Economics at the London School of Economics
ORG
can you
first
ORDINAL
of all great great pleasure to speak to you
today
DATE
what are you looking at in the in the
Chinese
NORP
economy you understand the
Chinese
NORP
economy like no one else really that it should have alert To this. The signs have been you know around for a long time really rising housing prices for so long this is actually the
third
ORDINAL
cycle already in
the last decade
DATE
where the government has been
The signs have been, you know, around for a long time. Really rising housing crisis for so long. This is actually the
third
ORDINAL
cycle already in
the last decade
DATE
where the government has been trying to curb That's what we're actually seeing right now. The
Chinese
NORP
economy is suffering from a combination of course pandemic controls, geopolitical aggressions, property contraction, and a general loss Confidence and in particular where is where what is this policy mean and how how transparent can it be going forward? So can you what does today tell us actually about this alarming slowdown we thought that
PBSU
ORG
policy makers would keep a very cool head about it I know
Symbolic
PERSON
cut but do you think they're willing to do a lot more to support the economy? Well, for sure, this is not enough. And there is room for further monitoring fiscal expansion, but really if we're talking about the property market, it's a little bit too late and too little. Now, to backstop, really a crisis of confidence, you need to do much more and in particular you need to send a really strong message, and it's About helping a consumers and home buyers and loosening the mortgage market that is enough you actually need to give a lot more relief to property developers the very entities they're trying to put an end to this unscrupulous barring and over expansion in
the last decade
DATE
but really it's a confidence problem and you wanna Vicious circle So how quickly do they need to act if they want to break circle? Well it's a little bit late let's say and it's gonna be very hard to achieve the targets for economic growth
this year
DATE
but you know I think what the economy and the generally that that the the companies and the households and the banks and the financial system is looking for is really overall You know support for the property market and more clarity on when you know the pandemic controls are gonna start to loosen up and in still more confidence in the economy I think it really builds it takes time to build confidence and time is not afforded to these property developers according to which you know to substitute
80
CARDINAL
Out of
100
CARDINAL
of this largest property developers are are under severe stress right now. Yeah, we're looking at, you know, whole price is finding
some 11th
DATE
for
the 11th month
DATE
that is mortgage crisis, of course, in
China
GPE
. Is deepening, can you, is this symptomatic of something bigger or is this actually where it starts But I don't think that there's gonna be a full blown financial crisis or a housing price crisis for
one
CARDINAL
thing a
Chinese
NORP
households have you know
24 1 trillion
QUANTITY
R&B
ORG
of saving
every year
DATE
with a
555 one 1 trillion
MONEY
R&B
ORG
of debt over all you know you pay a
five
CARDINAL
. Five% interest on it It's actually enough to support mortgage repayments and there are support for housing prices. I mean,
China
GPE
's really interesting country where you gotta own a property. So,
more than 85%
PERCENT
of the households own a property and you know, what I find is really interesting is that you have a gender skewed country where the market marriage market is particularly competitive Man and you can raise your eligibility as a bachelor if you own a property and there multiple wallets in a household to support you know the young kids to buy a property so there's organization I think there's there's bottom line support for housing crisis so it's unlikely gonna fall really much further and also the banking crisis you know Yes a quarter of banking asses is tied to the property but unlike
American
NORP
banks banks are state owned they're not
seven
CARDINAL
or
eight
CARDINAL
intermediary steps and chains that leads to this complex network of you know financial system there's only
one
CARDINAL
or two so plain vanilla loans and also foreigners are not so exposed to
Chinese
NORP
Although many of them are gonna have to take a haircut Can you I love the fact that of course it increases your eligibility if you're owned a nice house it does make for awkward conversations maybe on that
first
ORDINAL
date it talked to me about the
Chinese
NORP
consumer are they holding Not so much let's say there's the wealth effect from you know kind of property price decline there's again this confidence issue they wanna delay their home purchases they wanna delay their durable good consumption you know you just have to have more clarity where the economies going and transparent
Transparency and also in terms of investment there's you know also a lot of uncertain So it's really precautionary saving at the moment. We're really seeing some of the worst economic situation and
decades
DATE
of
China
GPE
. Can you I mean on the political front so
China
GPE
's also you know announce some patrols around
Taiwan
GPE
to protest other senators visiting is there a read across with with you know the more the
US
GPE
is seen as provo
China
GPE
. The more they need to prop up the economy or the too late. You know, geopolitical factors is in every day embedded now in terms of
Chinese
NORP
economic planning. There's on the one hand a strive to greater independence in independence in technology and commodities and there's also a greater push for domestic demand boost and so all these factors are Unless unless
China
GPE
's pushed to a corner we're not likely to see dramatic moves at least not yet. Can you as always thank you so much for all of the great insight Professor of economics at
the London School of Economics
ORG
. Now coming up said your uncle posts the biggest portrait profit of any list of company ever. We'll have the details on that next and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. When
US
GPE
inflation numbers are released major drop in the headline number
Bloomberg
PERSON
brings you crucial data at terminal speed. Analysis. Does the
fed
ORG
signal we're done. The market's not believing that the fet is yet done enough.
One
CARDINAL
report is not all it's gonna take. There is an epic saying in
Italy
GPE
when it comes to family generations that the
first
ORDINAL
generation creates the
second
ORDINAL
generation expands and the
third
ORDINAL
generation destroys And that's almost what happened in the
Gucci
PERSON
story So hey Tin I love you Experience about you. The
Gucci
PERSON
family was the strength but also the weakness.
Label
PERSON
. The situation became dire with
Gucci
PERSON
's finances. They were not able to pay salaries. They were not able to pay suppliers.
Gucci
PERSON
is really teetering on the brink of this stage. We think that's the next secular shift from businesses most influential and instrumental yes it's about renewables This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio There's a guest storage itself is not sufficient. We all facing a crisis at the moment. It's been produced by the cut off of
Russian
NORP
gas but it tells us yet again just how volley
It's not sufficient. A crisis at the moment. It's been produced by the cut off of
Russian
NORP
gas but it tells us yet again just how volatile and uncertain fossil fuel prices are. Yes, prices will remain very high and it also may result in some disruption. Not magically get sort of
tens or hundreds
CARDINAL
of of bigger watts of renewable energy before
winter
DATE
. So it is a matter of saving energy. It's a matter of securing sources. To reduce to reduce consumption. The
first
ORDINAL
step obviously is to become independent
Russian
NORP
supplies which
Indians
NORP
can only be managed by additional imports mostly
LNG
ORG
. Here
today
DATE
we've seen the this the reduction in the gas consumption by
about 10%
PERCENT
in the
EU
ORG
. Think the effect of this crisis will be that
Europe
LOC
will be further down the path to emissions reductions that it would otherwise be. Business leaders and regulators that are discussing the energy crisis on
Bloomberg
PERSON
and of course we'll bring you up to date as the situation develops. Now, let's get straight to your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Here's
the end year
DATE
. It's highly. Hi,
Francine
GPE
.
Japan
GPE
's economy recovered to its pre-pandemic Were relaxed. At an annualized pace of
two
CARDINAL
. Two% below economist medium forecast of
two
CARDINAL
. Six% consumer spending which accounts for
more than half
CARDINAL
of
Japan
GPE
's economic output led growth water levels have a key wave point
Ryan River
LOC
are expected to study at an extremely low level
this week
DATE
adding to
Europe
LOC
's energy crunch many barges can't transfer past the marker at a point west of
Frankfort
LOC
when the water level is below
40 cm
QUANTITY
according to government data it's already at
about 35 cm
QUANTITY
and is set to drop to
30 cm
QUANTITY
today
Wells Fargo
ORG
the bank that wants turned out In every
three
CARDINAL
home loans in the
US
GPE
now plans to shrink its vast mortgage empire
Bloomberg
PERSON
has learned
Wells Fargo
ORG
is no longer committed to a ranking number
one
CARDINAL
in the business that comes after
years
DATE
of To avoid costly regulatory probes and hits to the banks a reputation peloton is embarking on a sweeping overhaul which includes cutting
800
CARDINAL
jobs hiking prices and also shutting stores the CEO told employees the changes are changes and are essential making the company cash flow
Peloton Stock
ORG
is down
nearly 90%
PERCENT
over
the past 12 months
DATE
and tributes are pouring in from Wall St and beyond for and shoot
Jane
PERSON
the canter fits
Gerald
PERSON
president and former
Deutsche Bank
ORG
coat CEO
Jane
PERSON
's death at the age of
59
DATE
was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after a
five
CARDINAL
Battle
PERSON
with cancer. He's been credited with building deutsher banks investment banking business and turning the
German
NORP
lender into a global trading powerhouse and that's your
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash
Bloomberg
PERSON
joins us next.
Anthony
ORG
,
first
ORDINAL
of all, is there anything else behind the ramco record Part from high oil prices. I mean high all prices were the main factor here around just been pumping a crude out increasing production throughout
the year
DATE
even though they were subject to opac plus quotas where they have been reducing production to help the market recover from the COVID pandemic. They've Increasing production over that period. So, at the time is prices were going up. They've been putting more oil on the market. So, that's been really helping. At the same time, we've had this real big crunch on refined products. So, that's a gasoline, that's diesel, all these kind of transport fuels that we've been using so much
Division
ORG
that's been up by something like
175%
PERCENT
was the increase in
eBay
ORG
for that for that division francis So how are they gonna be spending this money? Yeah I mean a lot of that is gonna be going back into their wells to produce more oil and gas gas for use in the kingdom in power plants electricity petrochemicals and that's helping expand the
Saddy
PERSON
economy and then oil they're gonna be pumping that out
In the kingdom in power plants electricity petrochemicals and that's helping expand the saddy economy and then oil they're gonna be pumping that out selling more of that they're looking to increase exports of crude oil as well as they start to use less of At home for those industries. So, it's really gonna be an investment in that and investment to increase the capacity so they can put more oil onto the market as they see demand continuing to increase throughout the rest of
this decade
DATE
. So apart from that this is reinvestments do we know how much I'll give back to shareholders through dividends or buybacks? Well, there are maintaining their dividend policy. The
annual
DATE
dividend is
about 75 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. That's the world's biggest dividend. Payout and so far, they're maintaining that. They've had free cash flow that was nearly double what the divi Payout is so so finally they're making the money to to make that payout we don't know yet if they are gonna increase that
later this year
DATE
although we have been hearing increasingly from some endless discussing it that that they would expect to see that with these big bumper oil prices some of the other International oil companies have been giving money back to shareholders. We did CRMC a small gesture with some bonus shares given to shareholders but we haven't yet seen that that dividend increase. Yeah. Debt the year end ratio is coming under control. So they may they may come to that. We may hear from here from management about Later today. I mean the other story that really caught my eye is something that you've been covering all along and certainly Morning where we found out that actually Prince
Al Walid
PERSON
had a significant amount of exposure to some of the
Russian
NORP
energy companies in it's unclear weather this was pre your post war. Yeah, exactly. He made those investments in
about three
CARDINAL
Russian
NORP
energy companies in
February
DATE
. We don't know whether that that was before the invasion or after. So, we don't know what really wasn't thinking there. Maybe he saw kind of a fill up coming on those shares. If an invasion was avoided, That didn't happen and those securities have gone down. We did see a lot of
Saudi Arabia
GPE
support for
Russia
GPE
. After the war, you know, they they didn't throw a
Russia
GPE
under the bus as the
US
GPE
would have wanted when the
US
GPE
was criticizing
Russia
GPE
for that invasion. A lot of people have been questioning, you know, The financial benefit foresight from
Russia
GPE
we don't see a lot of investment going in I think that same argument goes for this I will lead investment you know he put the money in has he gotten anything back yet we don't know what these prices he hasn't seen. Thank you so much
Anthony
PERSON
that middle east of course our
Middle East
LOC
to energy market report to
Anthony DePala
PERSON
now coming up it's been a while since it's grabbed art and
June
DATE
Bitcoin briefly are passing
$25 thousand
MONEY
on
Sunday
DATE
for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
mid June
DATE
before sleeping back and then a broader crypto rally so we have more of That's next and this is Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers in this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather we'll explore the science behind the recent heat wave
Morning
TIME
.
Seating rivers. In this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
, we're focusing on extreme weather. We'll explore the science behind the recent heat wave. More extreme than it is now. I'm afraid that's inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills and until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. Mitigate and adapt. Government Stimulate And and Certain things happen. Headquarters in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
airing
this weekend
DATE
on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
quick take ant Online. Global economy is changing as the world recalibrates.
Japan
GPE
's leaders are forging a more innovative and sustainable path forward to revitalize the nation.
Giants
ORG
. Policy makers and pioneers tell us how they're doing just that.
Every week
DATE
on
Japan
GPE
ahead right here on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
. Economic finance politics this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition of Francy like we're here in
London
GPE
now let's turn our attention to the crypto space
yesterday
DATE
Bitcoin briefly surpassed at
$25 thousand
MONEY
for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
mid June
DATE
before sleeping back as momentum continued from course unexpected
US
GPE
inflation data now for more and all of this we're joined by our
Bloomberg
PERSON
crypto She's Emily Nicole. Feel like a bitcoin. It did appear. To have a bit of a rocky start
this morning
TIME
after a bit of a run up in
the weekend
DATE
. So what exactly is going on? So yesterday we definitely saw a bit of a rally for Bitcoin. It was coming off the back of some more payroll data or job jobs data from the
US
GPE
anyway on
Friday
DATE
. Which seemed to suggest that you know there are fewer rate hikes in future or at least less monetary tightening than we thought. And all of that helps to contribute to a Environment for risky assets like crypto. But
this morning
TIME
as you said it's definitely been a rocky start. It went up to
25
CARDINAL
K again
this morning
TIME
and then has gone down below
24
CARDINAL
K. We're now seeing about a percentage down a broader crypto rally as well as also kind of Overall it does seem like we've had a bit of a broad rally when it comes to crypto in
the last month or so
DATE
. Yeah it in
the last month or so
DATE
as you point out like the the data that's been coming out from regulators have been broadly positive in terms of what they expect to do in with monetary policy and with economics and that then helps risky assets like crypto so for bitcoin it's definitely about bouncing off that and that kind of points towards how investors view these assets now you know They're all most part of the traditional whiskey asset basket. Not like, you know,
last year
DATE
when everything was was a far or fomo. So, are you expecting this to continue? That it's becoming more mainstream and there It will become more stable Weather not every staple. Big drop if you were to think about what it's like compared to a different asset that's not crypto. But definitely over
the last year
DATE
what we've seen is that crypto is becoming more and more correlated with traditional text stocks with SFP
500
CARDINAL
. That correlation point has been at oh point For as long as I can remember at this point. So definitely behaves like any other risky acid. And that kind of lends The fact that we do see these ups and downs as of when economic data comes out and you know, talk to us about the difference between bitcoin and actually some of the other crypto assets. Yeah, so in
the last few days
DATE
, we've seen a lot of differences actually between Bitcoin and it's younger sister. I guess I need to call it Ethereum. What Ether? Because Ether itself Due to undergo a major upgrade
next week
DATE
around maybe around
the 15th
DATE
there's what we're expecting at
the minute
TIME
two
CARDINAL
it's on the line network that means it's gonna be shifting away from the way it currently mine's tokens and validates transactions to Different method.
Maybe around
the 15th
DATE
there's what we're expecting at
the minute
TIME
two
CARDINAL
it's on the line network that means it's gonna be shifting away from the way it currently mine's tokens and validates transactions to a different method that is supposed to be a bit more Bit more efficient. We'll help reduce things like transaction fees. Because that has been in the pipeline for so long. And we're now coming to those final stages of when it'll begin. People are kind of pric
Optimism
NORP
and that's also bouncing other coins that are similarly based on that blockchain that does claim and the other underlying networks. Emily, thanks so much for all the great updates. Emily
Nicole
PERSON
there on
Crypto
ORG
and
Bitcoin
PERSON
. Now,
Bloomberg
PERSON
's around. It's early edition continues
the next hour
TIME
with
Matt Miller
PERSON
,
Katie Lanes
PERSON
, and here in
Anna Edwards
PERSON
will be
China
GPE
economic outlook of course it started to hurt the stocks rally we also look at treasury treasury yields at ticking higher the bunker remaining deeply inverted pointing to worries at
the Federal Reserve Campaign of Montre
ORG
tightening against high inflation wool spark a
US
GPE
recession so we'll have a look at that the dollar gaining and this is Bloom My grandfather got into the mutual fund business cuz the average investor could not get a diversified stock portfolio and it was too dangerous to put you know your Savings in it just a couple of of companies. So, the mutual fund was created to give a diversified expert management at a reasonable price. Hey Have a phenomenal on where companies are waiting much longer to go public and so in
2000
DATE
the average company went public after
3 years
DATE
now companies are waiting
9 to 10 years
DATE
cuz there's so much money available in the private markets as a matter of fact there are
half
CARDINAL
the number of public companies that there were in
2005
DATE
So the question is that return that used to be captured in the public market is now captured in the private markets but the problem is you know is you're really tied up for a long time when you invest in a private equity fund And so trying to figure out a way to solve the same problem my grandfather was trying to solve which is how do you bring those returns responsibly the democraization of the of the private markets to the retail investors and I describe it as a bit of like running with scissors this is a great tool Use it appropriately. Bringing it in to
the Averaging Bestor
ORG
. The difference between political gossip And policy intelligence. Analysis And public affairs tools that give you the edge and reaching policy makers on the hill
Currencies
ORG
on which you rely.
Bloomberg
PERSON
government
Over
the past few weeks
DATE
has made it clear. It wants to go higher. It got a little spook by the idea that due political content is a rising And there's gonna be a calm before the storm. I think Over
the past 20 years
DATE
but it's been
Significant Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition with
Anna Edwards
PERSON
Matt Miller
PERSON
and
Kaylee Lines
PERSON
.
10 AM
TIME
in
London
GPE
.
5 AM
TIME
in
New York
GPE
,
5 PM
TIME
in
Hong Kong
GPE
. Our top stories
today
DATE
.
China
GPE
's central bank surprise. The PBOC cuts interest rates to boost an economy hurts COVID lockdowns and the property slump. Another
US
GPE
congressional delegation visits
Taiwan
GPE
Beijing
GPE
responds by adding military patrols around the island. And a major ship for
Wells Fargo
ORG
it will shrink the mortgage empire that once accounted for
one
CARDINAL
in every
three
CARDINAL
US
GPE
home loans. Good
morning
TIME
. Welcome to
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance. Early edition. I'm
Guy Johnson
PERSON
in
London
GPE
with
Matt Miller
PERSON
and
Kayline
PERSON
's in
New York
GPE
.
Anna Edwards
PERSON
is off
today
DATE
.
Kaylee
PERSON
, the action is in
Asia
LOC
. Yeah, and in
China
GPE
Typically guy after that surprise rate cut from the PBOC cutting both
the 1 year
DATE
and
7 day
DATE
lending rates by
10
CARDINAL
basis points so that really it was Interesting week on the session overall in
Asia
LOC
. Yes, you have the MSCI Asia Pacific Index positive by about Of
one%
ORG
but that was largely due to outperformance of
Japan
GPE
. Meanwhile,
Chinese
NORP
stocks were down because of course that rate cut was quickly followed
less than Hour later
TIME
by a series of disappointing data points from the
Chinese
NORP
economy retail sales investment all are missing expectations so that took the CSI Down about a
10th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
in the bond market we saw
the Chinese 10 year
EVENT
yield coming in
eight
CARDINAL
basis points at
two 66
DATE
that is the lowest level going back to
May of 2020
DATE
and the meanwhile the
Chinese
NORP
US
GPE
one of the biggest under Among the
Asian
NORP
currencies.
Six
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
trading right now at
About a half a percent
CARDINAL
. Now, we had a really strong cash trade on
Friday
DATE
. We were up about
two%
ORG
more than
two%
ORG
on on the
Nasdaq
ORG
cash trade. So, giving up some of those We're also seeing investors buying
the 10 year
DATE
treasuries and really across the curve pushing yields down right now
282 76
CARDINAL
is a level we're looking at here and the
US
GPE
dollar index is also Some strength. So, this is really signs that investors are looking for some kind of safe haven because you saw the reverse for example, previously
Treasuries
ORG
and this dollar strength has just continued throughout
the morning
TIME
. Bitcoin on the other hand is down right now.
More than one%
CARDINAL
that tends to be corally with risk asset
Holding
ORG
over $24 thousand a piece guy what do you see in terms of the
European
NORP
games? They're very fractional and to be honest if you take a look below the surface mat they are very defence suit so you got health care bouncing back
today
DATE
utilities are up food of beverages tracking a little bit higher that is a very very defensive sector
European
NORP
activities getting a little bit attraction
this morning
TIME
but not much. Remember, you're up highly exposed to what is happening in
China
GPE
. That's where the narrative is. That's where the weakness is right now. And
Europe
LOC
's got its own problems to contain with as well. So
European
NORP
expertise really just drifting sideways at the moment. We are watching Cable rate as well down by
around half
CARDINAL
of one%
today
DATE
. You've got more weakness coming out of the housing market here in the
UK
GPE
. Higher rates beginning to bite. We're gonna pay attention to that. To see whether it rolls over further from here. You've also got crude coming low as well on the
Chinese
NORP
data. There's a multitude of factors coming together here but nevertheless
China
GPE
was and continues to be.
It rolls over further from here. You've also got crude coming along as well on the
Chinese
NORP
data. There's a multitude of factors coming together here but nevertheless,
China
GPE
was and continues to be a big consumer of crude. The softness in the data worth paying attention to and then we come to the line. What is happening on the rise
this morning
TIME
? We're at a 30 Centimetres. We are below the
40 cm
QUANTITY
of which the rain at
Cal
PERSON
near
Frankfurt
GPE
is navigable. We are below that level. Effectively very little traffic going up the line from
Frankfurt
GPE
. That is gonna have Kaylee a major industrial effect and we're gonna continue to watch bat feeding into the data over the next few Yeah but climate crisis exacerbating an energy crisis Exacerbates and economic crisis. Definitely something we will continue to watch. Not just
today
DATE
but during
the entire week ahead
DATE
. And there's plenty Retailers Figures Of the
US
GPE
consumer and the
US
GPE
economy as a whole. Also, on
Wednesday
DATE
, the federal be releasing
minutes
TIME
from it's
July
DATE
meeting. What are they sign GDP data out later on and
EUCPI Central
ORG
bank surprise and of course the bad data
Kaylee
PERSON
that you listed the PB Retail industrial and investment data all point to a sharply slowing
Correspondent
ORG
joins us for more so and to how bad is it? It's quite bad.
July
DATE
was meant to be
the month
DATE
of recovery for
China
GPE
's economy and said we had a suite of data
today
DATE
. All surprising on a downside, retail spending less than expected industrial Since
January
DATE
move in of itself will not be eh a game
Slow
ORG
down than expected eh across the whole economy. How stable is slowdown be what do you think we're looking at in terms of GDP now
this year
DATE
and more policy action what sort of size will we be looking at? Without the big question guy what kind of a pivot will we get on policy now until a recently living quite disciplined they haven't rolled out a kind of physical stimulus we've seen in Downtowns that central bank has been offering support but not hugely so the question is will we get a pivot on COVID oh all the messaging on that so far has been there will be no pivot on COVID oh then the Comes what will it do when the real estate side of things will a government trying to inject money into those developers and try and really arrest the slide and prices and activity there so I think most of the focus will be on government spending on a Real estate more so I think than any abrupt pivot from COVID oh or any major action from
the Central Bank
ORG
. Thank you so much. Meanwhile, elsewhere in
Asia
LOC
, another
US
GPE
congressional delegation, this Led by
democratic
NORP
senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
is visiting
Taiwan
GPE
China
GPE
says it is fighting back by adding more military patrols around the island the congressional trip comes
less than 2 weeks
DATE
after
one
CARDINAL
by house speaker
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
led to unprecedented
Chinese
NORP
military exercises and reorder
Bloomberg Washington
PERSON
correspondent joins us now with more from D Or is there another motive for this next round of visits? What speaker
Pelosi
GPE
's visit was really the one that sent shock waves throughout
China
GPE
really because of her rank not saying that
Ed Markey
PERSON
is centered for
Massachusetts
GPE
isn't important but it's a different level a different level of status of speaker
Pelosi
GPE
going versus The speaker of the house and already what we have from the
Chinese
NORP
defense and the
Chinese
NORP
military talking about patrols, talking about
the United States
GPE
and showing again that they're testing
China
GPE
, that this is an infringement on their sovere We haven't seen the response that we had when it was speaker
Pelosi
GPE
less than 2 weeks ago
DATE
which included last
Which included live fire drills as well as was likely ballistic missiles that went over the island of
Taiwan
GPE
and even
Japan
GPE
sang and ended up in their economic exclusion zone but Does test the waters of potentially maybe more blowback from
Beijing
GPE
. Speaking of blowback senators are now asking to see the classified or confiscated documents from the FB Residents what do we know? This is really a bipartisan issue right now. You have
Republicans
NORP
and senators, you have
Mark Warner
PERSON
,
Virginia
GPE
, you have
Marco Rubio
PERSON
, they're both chair and vice chair of
the Senate Intelligence Committee
ORG
, what they are asking for is for the
FBI
ORG
to disclose to the panel Cuz obviously these are classified and sensitive to materials that they want to be able to see this and really obviously this has become very political but in
congress
ORG
everyone wants to know what was in these documents these
Washington
GPE
is partisan when it comes to the rhetoric.
Republicans
NORP
wanna get to the bottom of why this raid was justified while the
Democrat
NORP
Really looking at the gravity of the situation and why the former president even had these documents in the
first
ORDINAL
place. Thanks very much
Emily Hall
PERSON
done joining us from
DC
GPE
on the latest not only on what is happening with this trip to
Taiwan
GPE
but also what is happening surrounding
Donald Trump
PERSON
now after
years
DATE
dominating
America
GPE
's mortgage market
Wells Fargo is Planning
ORG
a major retreat from home lending here to discuss the applications of this strategic shift inside the country's
third
ORDINAL
largest bank is
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Charlie Wells
PERSON
appropriately names
Charlie
PERSON
let's talk about the size and significance of this shift Taking that famous stage coach in a very different direction. Unique in the mortgage lending space. So, after the financial crisis with a course, it's connections to
America
GPE
's mortgage market. Other major lenders in
the United States
GPE
backed out of the sector but
Wells Fargo
ORG
charged right forward over
the past decade
DATE
, they actually brought in
57 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in fees from their mortgage operations which is hugely significant. Some of the negative sides of this are happening. So, mortgages of course are incredibly regulated. They're incredibly complex and this seems to be an indication that executives inside the bank are taking a look at some of the missed steps that have happened even over Distress borrowers and also some reporting from
Blueburg News
ORG
that found that there was a Gap in approvals for white versus black people who wanted to refinance. So, this seems to be executive saying, it's just not worth it to go so hard anymore. Where does this charlie leave the
US
GPE
housing market? I mean,
Wells Fargo
ORG
was an incredibly important supplier is an incredibly important supplier of Yeah
Matt
PERSON
that is a really great question I think it's something that everyone is trying to figure out as we continue to get indications of the
US
GPE
housing market is slowing down right we've got mortgage costs going up we've got an economic uncertainty making buyers less likely to become customers of banks like
Wells Fargo
ORG
Over
the past few months
DATE
and also when we think about the ramifications for this within financial services we see this increased trend of financial disintermediation where large lenders aren't necessarily playing every role in consumers lives we're seeing competitors like rocket mortgage Take up some of the market share that
Wells Fargo
ORG
had before. So, this is going to bring out significant changes in the way that
Americans
NORP
buy homes. Alright,
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Charlie Wells
PERSON
great reporting. Thank you so much and of course, you can read
today
DATE
's big take on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com or by typing Big take into your terminal. Meanwhile, in other banking news,
Reuters
ORG
is reporting that several major Wall St banks
Facilitate
ORG
trades in
Russian
NORP
debt in
recent days
DATE
most
US
GPE
and
European
NORP
banks of course had pulled back from the market in
June
DATE
after treasur So continue to keep an eye on that story but
first
ORDINAL
we also wanna check on some stocks moving in pre market trading here in the
US
GPE
and I have to With bed bath and beyond which is one of the meme stocks that is seen a very real resurgence in
recent days
DATE
. It's up in 12 Past
13
CARDINAL
sessions higher.
Which is
one
CARDINAL
of the meme stocks that is seen a very real resurgence in
recent days
DATE
. It's up in 12 Over that time really for no good reason other than that it signals that Or the bell. Complex did you see commodity prices down in part due to concerns around
Chinese
NORP
demand after that string of disappointing econ Also in related relation to that
China
GPE
story or seems some of those big tech ADRs Also way down in pre-market trading Alibaba one it's down
about one
CARDINAL
. Two% of course it has the sensitivity to that
Chinese
NORP
consumer Guy. Absolutely we're gonna look at the macro element all of this as well could the
Chinese
NORP
currency come under significant pressure how will
Beijing
GPE
respond
Derek Anthony MUFG
PERSON
head of research for global markets
EMEA
ORG
joining us in
the next half hour
TIME
to give us a take on what is happening there
Iris Pang
PERSON
I and G's chief economist for greater
China
GPE
also weighing in on Story that is all coming up this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. You're so intimately linked to the future of the
UK
GPE
what do you see when you go to branches and in the country yeah A lot of anxiety at the moment. You know I think the recovery from the pandemic has been and is continuing to be very strong so I think we're seeing the economy recover but with rising interest rates with inflation. Those those are things that you know peoples and families and businesses haven't had to deal with for
10 years
DATE
. So a lot of Soon as
today
DATE
haven't had to operate in that environment so it is causing quite a lot of Which means you know for us because we're up and down the country in branches and offices we can spend a lot of time talking to businesses and helping them plan and deal with it but it is it is very different and it's not something people have had to operate in for a long time. The difference between political gossip Policy intelligence. Analysis. And public affairs tools that give you the edge in reaching policy makers on the hill.
Bloomberg
PERSON
government All roads lead to
Jackson Hole
GPE
for
the Kansas City Feds
GPE
2022 economic policy Discuss the economic issues and solutions that keep the world's money moving. Coverage starts
August 25
DATE
only on
Bloomberg
PERSON
television and radio. This is
Bloomberg Surveillance
PERSON
early edition on
Matt Miller
PERSON
with
Kaylee Lyons
PERSON
here in
New York
GPE
Guy Johnson with us out of
London
GPE
. Considering all of the headwinds geopolitical energy concerns.
Cheap the
VixSis
PRODUCT
. Very difficult and it's on right you have to look at relative to a lot of things but this is where it doesn't make a lot sense to me it's low relative to realise vault it's low relative to at the money implied vault it's low relative to cross it vault it's also low relative to longer term vote and that the Of that of course is it makes it very hard to go long with ex cos the negative carry you have to slide down the car so that maybe is one of the things that's holding it back. Simon what about another asset classes I'm looking at a significantly stronger dollar
this morning
TIME
off the back of
that week
DATE
Chinese
NORP
data what is
FX
ORG
vola So
FX Falls
ORG
to say it's kind of been rising relative to to other volatilities we've also fixed income vault is quite high so it's kind of makes the vecs look even more ehm over and out Here. I mean the the dollar really is is very interesting. It is own right. It's been rising. It'll continue to rise. I think as long as the
fed
ORG
is is looking like it's taken rate hikes much further than everyone else. But really when you have that effect The fat raising rates it creates a lot of ripples across a lot of us it's across the world. So I would make make it easier for me to understand in layman's term why it's hard to go along the vics. You said something about negative carry and you have to slide down the curve. What do you mean? So when you put like a tree like that on you put it on in the futures and when you have this very steep curve you're putting it on at much higher level and basically if nothing happens you slide down that curve so you're actually your volatility is going When you want it to go up so that's the the the curse of negative carry. How much of this is seasonal? There's there's a seasonal aspect but I think it's very difficult to talk with seasonals in the sort of Very volatile world that we're in right now. You know, normally in quiet times, I think seasonals make more sense. But right now, we've seen so much big moves. It's very difficult to see how your seasonals are gonna have like As much of it impact as they would normally have Well and of course we're in a season Simon where we're not going to have that much better reserve action or at least any decision on hikes
September
DATE
from your assessment of these markets have they overdone it on the expectation that the feds gonna cool off Well, I think this this is really what does make sense to me. You know, the
fed
ORG
is been very explicit that it's gonna be less explicit in offering guidance going forward. And in that Okay the market might be right we're gonna get rate cuts
next year
DATE
but if it's wrong it's gonna be potentially very wrong because inflation is a very non linear situation and that means that rates might go up a little bit The risk is they could go up considerably higher. If you look at
Taylor Row
PERSON
, you're looking another
500
CARDINAL
basis points. So, to me, it shouldn't be that tail risks are getting priced lower. You should be rising tail risks and that would add to the vics right now. That's Is kind of in
congress
ORG
to to what's going on. So protection is cheap. We're going into some fairly big events.
Jackson
PERSON
, how's coming up? Got fair meetings in
September
DATE
. There's other data that we need to be paying attention to between now and then. When would you expect things to start to Normalizing the sense of well stop the vics going back to what you would describe to being a more reasonable level I when you think trade is gonna step up and go now's the moment I need to start Action. We've also had a big run into this. Vol's come down but I'm now going into
Jackson Hole
GPE
where the
Fed
ORG
could push back. I'm now going into the the
September
DATE
rate heights potentially when the
fed
ORG
could surprise. When do we when do you expect to start seeing this changing?
Jackson Hall
FAC
I think is is a big risk event but I think already we're seeing
one
CARDINAL
thing right now if you look at the Vicks itself you can buy coal options on the vics so the
Vix
PERSON
is low if you think it's gonna be higher you can buy call options yep already traders are now buying considerably more call options and put option Yep that is often proceeded rises in the vec so maybe we're beginning to see something right now the protest is beginning to unfold Simon Grace up thank you very much indeed Simon Whites of Bloomberg Markets Vicks maybe about to move. Keep an eye on that one. Check out what exactly the analysis surrounding all of this is. You can do that very simply on your Bluebird terminal. MLIV go on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
. This is.
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
We make it very transparent to the shopper before they accept an order. What's the order is gonna look like? How much we're gonna pay them? And how much like the consumer is paying them? And so they can decide whether they take an order or was else it refuse yet? And that's the kind of flexibility that Transparency that they want. Are you seeing a labor shortage right now? And what are you doing to combat that? It's different in different places. All demographic of shoppers is completely different from food delivery and write sharing. We've 70 And women and
half
CARDINAL
of them moms and that's because a lot of the job on
Instagram
NORP
is very different and just being in the car with strangers. It's about like going to the store, doing a good job of customer service, of really picking the right products for the consumer and we are seeing that being very appealing to women. The
seven 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
industry there's a lot of ground to cover prepare for an economic hurricane Thank you.
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Some of my money outside of the soccer. It all comes down to the details here. Bitcoin is mine. Now keeping you up to date with news from around the world here is the
first
ORDINAL
word in the
UK
GPE
the labor party
ORG
has propos
Liberation Speculation
ORG
it could supply we For
Russia
GPE
's war in
Ukraine
GPE
. Was announced
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
With cancer he spent
two decades
DATE
at which bank and transformed it into a global trading powerhouse onto
Jane
PERSON
was
59
DATE
What's
59
CARDINAL
?
700 anniversary
QUANTITY
of
Dante Alegary's
PERSON
death has triggered the work of many institutions and offered a very rich schedule of events Hey and set the crochet we present
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CARDINAL
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PERSON
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Felipa Bruno Leshi Images
ORG
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NORP
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PERSON
through these images we can live the violent emotions of hell the weight of purgatory and the sublime joy of paradise The digital humanity the digital humanities are a cultural occasion to exploit. Summing up it's about merging humanistic disciplines with new technologies. I find this to be an innovating and modern tool to update culture. Cultural heritage becomes something to hand over to the new generations and not to be put aside so it's about using technology pixels and binary code with a human and humanizing content. This is blue books surveillance early edition and here's what you need to know
China
GPE
cuts the PBOC is forced to reduce rates after
week
DATE
retail industrial and investment data all point to a sharply slowing economy
Taiwan
GPE
tensions rise again as the
US
GPE
congressional delegation led by Senator
Ed
PERSON
He touches down on the island. With fresh military action and mortgage moderation after a series of scandals
Bloomberg
PERSON
learns
the Wells Fargo
ORG
is planning to read from its prime position in
America
GPE
's home loan markets
Anna Edwards
PERSON
is off
today
DATE
Matt
PERSON
what's it looking like pre market well we're seeing futures off maybe not completely surprising considering all the disappointing data that we got out of
China
GPE
and consider Games that we saw on
Friday
DATE
we were up almost two% on the S and P more than that on the Nasdaq so we're giving up Turn around and I think when I look at my worksheet which is your worksheet guy cuz I stole it from you. This is Interesting move that I see in markets
today
DATE
.
The 10 year
DATE
yield which had been climbing that
My worksheet which is your worksheet guy cuz I stole it from you. This is the most interesting move that I see in markets
today
DATE
.
The 10 year
DATE
yield which had been climbing then turned around and came down
around 4 o'clock
TIME
this
New York
GPE
time
9 o'clock
TIME
London
GPE
time and that is I think around headlines coming out of
Taiwan
GPE
or out of
China
GPE
that they're starting fresh military actions there we have investors seeking
Bitcoin
NORP
coming off which makes sense With other risk assets but still holding up over $24 thousand a piece.
Kaylee
PERSON
, what do you see in terms of the pre-market movers
this morning
TIME
? Well,
one
CARDINAL
other asset Sub $
90
MONEY
a barrel
today
DATE
and in part that is due to demand concerns out of
China
GPE
with that disappointing data overnight really overshadowing the news of a rate cut coming from the PBOC so while those
Equities Two and a half
PRODUCT
to three% and it's speeding through to the metals complex Which is down
about two
CARDINAL
. Seven% before the bell guy You got that
first
ORDINAL
. We see the same thing here in
Europe
LOC
,
Kaylee
PERSON
. You are seeing the commodity stocks under pressure. It's not any oil but it's also the the minors as well. Bottom end of the stop
six under this morning
TIME
. Top end, much more
Defensive
NORP
bias in the market
this morning
TIME
so the healthcare sector's bouncing back you're seeing food and beverage tracking a little bit higher so defensive tilt to the market in terms of the sector story but that means in aggregate the stock
600
CARDINAL
is up just a little bit we're up by
three
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
the cable rate under a little bit of pressure the dollars broadly week across the piece
today
DATE
and That goes for euro dollar as well. And what we're seeing there for is a little bit of weakness
Beginning
PERSON
to rip out and that could have a big effect. The dollar when it moves like this can have a very big effect. You can house prices also coming under pressure further factor for
Sterling
ORG
to consider. Brent's down
Kenny
PERSON
was just mentioning what is happening there. And we continue to see what is happening in
Germany
GPE
as a big problem as well. The
Ryan
PERSON
is now below
40 cm
QUANTITY
which is the mark Stabilizing a little bit but still a very low levels you know for someone you know who lives in the imperial in the realm. Using metric terms. What is that in inches? Just below
16 inches
QUANTITY
. Alright, excellent. So, we now all understand how low
Ryan River
LOC
levels are. Let's get to our next guest. Respected for
decades
DATE
for providing a decent profit and pleasantly low volatility. The
60 40
DATE
portfolio generated an
11
CARDINAL
So far
this year
DATE
is it time to put that strategy to rest a question that seems that we're always asking or is it just the matter of modifying some of your holdings here's Investors responded to the latest M live pulse survey. Oh the much more line
60 40
CARDINAL
portfolio.
60 40
CARDINAL
you know a portfolio for generally speaking for most investors would would make sense because At some station one market will make a comeback. We need to give it some more time. There may be better ways to go than 60 40 but I think it's a base case. It's still makes a lot of sense. Stop
40%
PERCENT
in bonds is probably close to final
10
CARDINAL
I actually think they're increasing it pretty dramatically at the moment is is they're looking for Going outside into other real assets, real estate, private equity, private credit, can can be a healthy addition to the portfolio and really help diversify your returns because
60 40
DATE
, as I mentioned, has been a challenging portfolio construction expo
year
DATE
to have. So it's interesting one of the things that the
60 40
DATE
has not had to deal with over
the last few years
DATE
has been significant currency volatility we are now getting that currency volatility particularly in the form of a significantly stronger dollar
One
CARDINAL
factor behind all of this obviously is the slow down that we're seeing and the rest of the world.
China
GPE
no exception. The data out
overnight
TIME
causing the PBOC Cut rates is there more to follow what impact could that have on the
Chinese
NORP
currency view and let's try and answer some of these questions
Derek Albany
PERSON
MUFG
ORG
had of research global markets
EMEA
ORG
and international security is there a good morning guy the
Chinese
NORP
started cutting rates The currency is gonna respond they're probably gonna have to do bigger rate cuts further down
International security. Is there
a good morning
TIME
? The currency is gonna respond they're probably gonna have to do bigger rate cuts further down the road how weak could the
Chinese
NORP
currency get? I think obviously if we're in for you know a sustained period of monetary easing that certainly is gonna put down with pressure on on NY. Pause though because it's not it's not a completely obvious answer And I think you have to also take into account what's happening on the trade side and over
the last 3 months
DATE
we've had a trade surplus Are nearly
280 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. That's that's the largest on record. Now obviously it's party related to the week import story that resulted in the the monitor easing. But are also reflects
18%
PERCENT
annual growth in in exports So even though we've had capital account outflows bond markets equity markets the balance of payment statistics
last week
DATE
showed
nearly 100 1 billion
MONEY
of outflows in Qtwo It just doesn't match what's happening on the trade side And until that change is dramatically I'm quite reluctant to become bearish on on CNY and
CNH
ORG
so
today
DATE
CNHO or dollar CNHO half a percent this was a surprise but
only last week
DATE
in the
quarterly
DATE
eh monitor policy reports it was actually slightly hawkish yeah the interpretation was that they're more concerned about So this big surprise has resulted in what's happening
today
DATE
but ultimately it might be premature to be calling for pronouncing why weakness at this point More people talking about the fact that we may have seen the peak of the dollar. Your thoughts? I don't think so. I think what's very interesting over there. Now, I'm talking to short term because you know, our view was that equity markets were probably going to drop in the
30 35%
PERCENT
and that that would prompt the pivot from the
fed
ORG
so as the equities were coming down the dollar would strengthen further the pivot would come the dollar would reverse But we haven't had that. Financial conditions are easing. Now the fat will never come out and say that I want to see the acute moving higher but ultimately it's complicating what they need to do. Time to result in short time right expectations. Yeah. Data's actually picking up as well. Gasoline prices are down from
$five to $four
MONEY
. That's a big. That's a big impact for consumer confidence and maybe the retail sales data
this week
DATE
is gonna is gonna be stronger than expected. So, I think of the short term. When you look at what's priced for
the rest Year
DATE
. There is a chance the market's gonna start pricing in more. Dude, they're pretty, they've come pretty close to saying that equity, markets that Wall St needs to feel some pain that the economy is gonna take a hit and they To argue with mister
Market Derek
PERSON
saying we're not gonna pivot that's not gonna And we're gonna continue to raise rates until we you know vanquish our inflation enemy here how far do you think they go? Well, I think when you look at the very short term, there's a bows And
18
CARDINAL
basis points price for
this year
DATE
Even if they do kinda revert from
75 to 50
CARDINAL
which based on the inflation data
last week
DATE
is very plausible Given what's happening potentially on the consumer side in terms of some pick up and confidence, some pick up and consumer spending. Result in the markets then starting to consider
50
CARDINAL
basis points
up to three
CARDINAL
remaining meetings
this year
DATE
which would the results obviously on
150
CARDINAL
basis points more than what's priced in now and I think The type of scenario that entermark is gonna start pricing over the short term I do actually think in fashion's gonna come down
next year
DATE
ehm so I think the the broader picture is correct but we need to get through much more tightening and perhaps more than what's priced at the short end of the curve and that gives the dollar that further But I'm talking about. Well, on the subject of the short end, obviously, yields at the short end or significantly higher than they are, the long end right now,
two
CARDINAL
stens inverted by
43
CARDINAL
basis points. How much deeper do you think that
MUFG
ORG
and my conclusions were We're we're highly likely to get to levels of inversion that we haven't seen since the
1980
DATE
's And based on the
nine
CARDINAL
episodes of
Tuesday
DATE
's inverting going back to 19 seven
To get to levels of inversion that we haven't seen since the
1980
DATE
's. And based on the
nine
CARDINAL
episodes of
Tuesday
DATE
's inverting going back to
1978
DATE
there is AA clear kind of link with dollar performance in terms of the depth of the inversion so if I'm alright and we go below minus
50
CARDINAL
bases points which is roughly where
Two
CARDINAL
in
2000
DATE
. I'll make it back to levels of the early
1980
DATE
's. I think again that is a catalyst for the dollar to strengthen further. So we're expecting you a dollar to pretty quickly lurch lower from here and go back below
paris
GPE
for a longer period than what we had Flu. Yeah. Didn't feel like it lasted very long. Derek, nice to see you. Thank you very much, indeed.
Derek Anthony
PERSON
,
MUFG
ORG
, head of research, global markets,
EMEA
ORG
, and international security. Thank you very much. Indeed. We're gonna continue to focus on what is happening with
China
GPE
,
Irish
GPE
,
Pang
GPE
, I and G's chief economist,
four
CARDINAL
greatest
China
GPE
, joining us next this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Hey Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers. In this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
, we're focusing on extreme weather. Will explore the science behind the recent heat wave. Get more extreme than it is now. I'm afraid that's inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills Until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. And we need government to And stop sending things out I'm
Kaylee Lynes
PERSON
from
Bloomberg
ORG
's Global headquarters in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
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airing
this weekend
DATE
on
Bloom TV
ORG
quit take ant online
Access
PRODUCT
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. Com webinars. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition in
New York
GPE
and
Guy Johnson
PERSON
in
London
GPE
Anna Edwards
PERSON
is off
today
DATE
in
China
GPE
the Central Bank un Cut it's key interest rates the PBOC is ramping up support for an economy that has been heard by COVID lock New data show that prices for homes fell again in
July
DATE
plus industrial output and retail sales were weaker than expected. Joining us now to discuss Cheap economist for greater
China
GPE
. So,
Iris
PERSON
just
last week
DATE
, the PBOC was out talking about how it doesn't want to go through with massive stimulus given the threat Inflation and yet clearly there is a growth deterioration that they're reacting to. How much further do you think they're willing to push easing? You mean the voluntary policy? Yes. So Monitoring policy Does play a role but not the biggest role here Vertical Call.
We may see the
PBO
ORG
series framing itself from vertical cost When they caught the
MLF
ORG
by
10
CARDINAL
basis point
today
DATE
at the same time they were through Liquidity. That means they are actually in a very dilemma situation that weather they should ease or not so they they are killed down the interest rate but who the community appears that overall interest rate in the market in
a week
DATE
may actually bounce back to the level that we have seen
a week ago
DATE
And I believe that there will be more business members stimulus on infrastructure investments. Okay and to that point on the fiscal and monetary side clearly the PBOC doesn't operate independently of the government in the in the
Party
ORG
and i'm wondering how much pressure In
China
GPE
on the political side ahead of the party
congress
ORG
and how you think that may factor in to some of these economic decisions? Think it's the the video see So they discussed What's measures to use either physicals or monetary or a bit of both or how to how to combine the post effects so now I see that the monetary is a Doesn't seem that much different than other central banks in terms of it's independence or lack thereof. I wonder about the COVID oh policy. How much further is
Xi Jingping
PERSON
willing to push On that because it seems to be one of the biggest breaks on growth. Hmm true and I also worry about that but what I have seen so far in this round of COVID in
Tibet
GPE
and also in
Highland Travel
ORG
destinations for mainland
Chinese
NORP
although they have clusters of COVID cases The the treatment of lockdown measures are more flexible compared to back in
May
DATE
and
March
DATE
to
May
DATE
in
Shanghai
GPE
and and even comparative
Beijing Beijing
PERSON
was that time more flexible than than
Shanghai
GPE
so they are now at adopting a more flexible Trying to limit the number of days in terms of quarantine and the number of days depends on the COVID spread. So, so it is not really a fixed date of quarantine. That is Actually quite helpful for economic recovery but as long as we have quarantine Here in
China
GPE
it it will from time to time approach the economy. Well we we've seen certainly some pain in terms of unemployment I think the youngest cohort of potential workers
16 to 24
CARDINAL
right now we're looking at
20%
PERCENT
unemployment of
fifth
ORDINAL
of those people don't have jobs how important is that? It's a it's a very Because this group of people actually consume a large amount of their salary if they have a job And now they are And also social issues I'm not referring to social unrest but other social issues like psychological issues it will put burden on the whole economy and I believe that state of enter This has a road to play here. Is was very high stay on enterprises were high more people in terms of part time and contracts
Alright
ORG
, start a quick question.
Europe
LOC
looks like it is going into a recession If
Europe
LOC
goes into a deep recession
this winter
DATE
how quickly does that feed back into the
China
GPE
data? It In the
US
GPE
or recession in
China
GPE
?
Back into the
China
GPE
data. If You mean recession in the
US
GPE
or recession in
China
GPE
? I mean that
Europe
LOC
's gonna have a recession. At the moment the trade data is favoring
China
GPE
. I imports our relatively weak but exports are relatively strong.
Europe
LOC
is a big Part of that Weird to see
European
NORP
demand slowing significantly how does that how does that fit into the
China
GPE
data picture? Usually that big packs into export orders and it will be a lot earlier than trade data and industrial production data it will be
2 months earlier
DATE
The
European
NORP
orders for holidays for sample
Thanksgiving
DATE
and
Christmas
DATE
and
New Year's
EVENT
have been placed in
summer this year
DATE
already placed so when we see another big orders that will be for
April
DATE
and that will be after
February
DATE
the Chinese Effect
ORG
but I am I am quite worry about that if I if I because it is not
Europe
LOC
is also about
US
GPE
. Alright so that way we will leave it thank you very much indeed for your analysis we greatly appreciate it
RS Pang ING's
PERSON
chief economist for greater
China
GPE
thank you very much now later on balance of pow we're gonna hear from
China
GPE
said that conversation
12:30 PM
TIME
:
New York
GPE
time do not miss it Has great insight into what is happening in
China
GPE
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. So, what is the best investment advice anybody's ever given you? You don't need to have a good idea
every day
DATE
. So, there is times to be patient and there's time to press. Think it's the most common mistake that investors make. The average investor. I think it's fomo. So buy high, sell low. You know when and the amount of damage that does the average investor Is is Let's suppose I have a extra $100 thousand Would you say that person should do with
100 1000
CARDINAL
to put an index fund or something else like that? Yeah, I mean, I think for the average investor Buying an index for buying and holding and just letting it compound is really I think Someone tries to do the more damage they tend to do. Week I'm
David Weston
PERSON
.
Renewables
PERSON
. This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio. Hey Facebook Welcome. Hey Facebook
Hey Facebook Welcome to
Deborah
PERSON
's Is
bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance early edition.
Surveillance
ORG
the original and
Tom
PERSON
so much focus on
Asia
LOC
on
China
GPE
's economic data as well as more action to come from the What's your focus
today
DATE
? Just to read in the current and to read the good people of
Bloomberg News
ORG
in
China
GPE
. This is a complex story. It's flat out complex. It's not gonna change. It's cursory and analysis isn't gonna do it. Let's go to the grocery analysis. It's a chart of real GDP and it's taken year over
year
DATE
. So, this is
the Grimmest Point
ORG
. Down we go to four tenths of a percent off that
10%
PERCENT
Dynamics in downtown we go and man what is so important about this analysis So much of it avoids the impact of COVID. I think it is grossly grossly underestimated. What COVID is done in their COVID policy is done to their economic growth. Yeah, the pur Of COVID oh definitely has some side effects you could say
Tom
PERSON
obviously we're seeing that ripple across asset classes
today
DATE
commodity prices are down the dollar is stronger who are you gonna be speaking about those moves with
today
DATE
on the program we're gonna start exceptionally strong here in
7 minutes
TIME
with kids ukes of sock gen and move on forward
Peter Hooper
PERSON
will join from
Deutsche Bank
ORG
and this is Really the beginning of our
Jackson Hall
FAC
coverage. We're taking
Jackson Hall
FAC
is seriously as we always do but we're really gonna move on
Kaylee
PERSON
to a careful analysis of where the major central banks are is we moved to
Wyoming
GPE
here in
about 14 days
DATE
. Alright looking forward to the coverage
today
DATE
and of course from
Jackson Hole
GPE
later on
Tom Keen
PERSON
thank you so much now ask for what else we are watching
today
DATE
I'm going to Watching 13 F filings for
the second quarter
DATE
they are due
today
DATE
to the
SEC
ORG
basically going Hedge funds we're doing What was a really really bruising period for investors like the tiger and global for example that have had Really, really rough
2022
DATE
. So, what are they buying? What positions did they exit mat? We're going to get some details and clarity on that and we'll look for all of that cover. Yeah, that'll be interesting to follow of course as it always is. I'm also looking forward to see what
Donald Trump's
PERSON
Move is or
the Department of Justice's
ORG
next move because they have released the warrant and now we see that certain senators are asking for the the The papers, the actual confidential material, to see what the contents of those boxes looks like, now, You know what's gonna come out of this from
the Department of Justice
ORG
or what is
Donald Trump
PERSON
gonna do to build on his support that you know he's clearly gotten from his base after after this search was executed by the
FBI
ORG
. It's amazing to see how this is playing out mad. What am I watching? Well, over
the last couple of years
DATE
, we've all been amateur verologists. Then, we all became amateur armchair generals. Now, we're all here in
Europe
LOC
, Becoming amateur hydrologists because of these pictures here The
Ryan
PERSON
levels are falling they're continuing to fall Signings of stabilization but yeah that's that's what we're all doing now. We're all becoming hydrologists. If it rains which is expected to
this week
DATE
. How quickly does the water go into the ground? What does it just run off with flash floods? Alex still and I have had been having a big debate on this one. She thinks it soaks in. I'm not quite so sure. That rap things up for early edition. More surveill Had some great guests and the return of
John Farrell
PERSON
.
Despite you know what happens we are enough and so I think going forward in that headspace I think is really important I think the pandemic really highlighted the importance of financial literacy. You know it's so important to understand okay like how do we budget how do we plan for you know unforeseen circumstances and and really make sure that we're prepared for these events in the future And Financial literacy in all forms budgeting retirement investing
Etcetera
ORG
. To to do this. Will he change their trajectory their career path and so if we can keep doing that for
the next 100 years
DATE
that's something that's satisfying for me BSO Now is your online home for
weekly
DATE
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performances see new concerts that go behind the scenes plus a claimed archival concerts visit
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Every
Friday
DATE
with
30 minutes
TIME
dedicated to fixing I'm
Jonathan Farrow
PERSON
this is Bloomberg Real Yelt The CPI and the PPI reports yes it was positive but i don't think it is any kind of game changer for the fed Plain old inflation targeting. We're not a reception now but it's coming and there's gonna be a calm before the Stay tuned for
3 hours
TIME
of being abused for taking vacation. Live from
New York City
GPE
this morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
. For our audience worldwide. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
's surveyment on TV and radio. Alongside
Tom Keen
PERSON
and
Lisa Abraham
PERSON
with
Sam Let's
PERSON
save the vacation better for a moment that data out of
China
GPE
wow downsight surprise after downside surprise
Ben Laidler
PERSON
says it's
the quietest week
DATE
out there. It's before
Jackson Hollis
PERSON
, before Pick me up John this is important that economic experiment it fails We added it to again
last week
DATE
I think what's that
4 weeks
DATE
of games now Of
the year
DATE
so far. And I cover that with completeness with
Kaylee Lines
PERSON
last week
DATE
John
PERSON
and you know we saw the app the upfield of the market but it was the way it was out there was a persistence Up to Edinburgh. I know you saw
AC Milan
ORG
.
Field of the market but it was the way it was out there was a persistence to the big John that you could see in
Naples
GPE
in
Rome
GPE
up to Edinburgh. I know you saw
AC Milan
ORG
. It was a good trip around I was watching
Chelsea Spurs
PERSON
yesterday
DATE
too
Tom
PERSON
we can pick up on that a little bit later
Lisa Production
PERSON
. Ugly, ugly, ugly, unemployment. Yeah. For the youth in that country right now in
China
GPE
, that is not a pretty picture.
16 to 24 year olds
DATE
. The unemployment rate is
19
CARDINAL
. Nine%. Basically
one
CARDINAL
in
five
CARDINAL
young people in that country do not have a job. How much is this really affect? What the people's congress is going to do?
Later this year
DATE
and the end of oh COVID as well because Transactions because of oh COVID patients. You're throwing
Europe
LOC
as well. The global economy. With exception of some of the data we've had from
America
GPE
. The global economy is in a difficult spot. Which raises a question of how much the
US
GPE
can remain in an exceptional spot? And and this is something that you heard from a lot of the notes overnight. There was a little bit more constructive tone to some of them. Not of course we're gonna say that actually it's getting closer to their bare Being a reality of likelihood of recession in the
US
GPE
and high likelihood in
Europe
LOC
. Reward remains unattractive. Back. Over a JP Morgan. You can trim stocks I'm so Rest.
Half
CARDINAL
of one% on the SMP. On your way to
Milan
GPE
. What else you gonna do? Look at your
Bloomberg
PERSON
. And look at below
Crute
PRODUCT
and cop of that matter as well. We'll pick up on this a little bit later
Lisa
PERSON
.
88 30
DATE
. And how much does this really stem from exactly the story you were talking about that were than expected economic data out of
China
GPE
having pretty big ramifications for the global appetite? At least the perceived one for commodities.
8:30 AM
TIME
. Here's what we're looking at This is basically the first read on the manufacturing activity after a PPI report as well as the
ISM
ORG
data that came out of
the past few weeks
DATE
. Actually, showing a bit of an upside surprise. Small business optimism
8:30 AM
TIME
: this to me I was watching over
the weekend
DATE
yesterday
DATE
Saudi
NORP
Aramco report
Blockbuster
PERSON
earnings. They reported a record revenue. It's just give you a perspective.
Quarterly
DATE
net income rose
90%
PERCENT
to
48
CARDINAL
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
. It is
8:30 AM
TIME
. They give their earnings call. How much insights they give to the demand picture? How much can we get both demand cooling Sentiment we get the
August
DATE
NHB housing market index how much do we see that starting to take up Basically a set of straight line down as a result of the high mortgage rates and just where prices are John given that people are starting to have a little bit Scratching with what they buy. Coming up
this week
DATE
I'd like for you to sum that up basically and then there's no news. Hey Facebook Meeting. I'm sorry. How many people John of missus
Bullmarket
GPE
? Start a call. When you're in triple average cash you really don't care if it's bolar bear. Chief
FX
ORG
strategist Ignoring them or just not listening kit which one is it? I think that I think they're choosing not to listen. I'm sure markets are listening to the feb but they're not really hearing the message or You know that there's a there's a disconnect between some of the kind of High inflation anyway. I mean, way, way, way too high. And a labor market which, you know, is just incredibly tight now and and so, they really have no
Yeah, high inflation anyway. I mean, way, way, way too high. And a labor market which, you know, is just incredibly tight now and and so, they really have nowhere to go. And I I will be surprised if we don't end up pricing a four% Headphones peak into this market before we're done. Over
the next few weeks
DATE
because Seems to me that the message from the
third
ORDINAL
is is it cannot soften at all at this point A kid what is the message of strong
Swiss
NORP
Frank and particularly
Euro Swissy
PERSON
breaking through.
97
CARDINAL
to.
96
CARDINAL
what is a signal of that Checking out like a sore thumb on a
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
It tells you a little bit about risk conversion. I mean it tells you something about the fact that the
Swiss
NORP
decided that they wanted to get rates backed into positive territory if they ever got a chance and that they've got some invention that they need to fight. And and if they have to Advice all attempts to to keep the currency down in the process it's fine because dollar
Swiss
NORP
isn't the problem so so domestically you can see what they're doing but yeah I mean it's Extension of the
China
GPE
story from
this morning
TIME
that says
US
GPE
economy might still be doing well so long as we don't look at the yolk curve and don't worry about the the things that don't don't gel well with
US
GPE
economy but if we look at the rest of There's just a world of trouble out there. Kit, you're talking about how perhaps this market is not listening to the federal reserve and I wonder in
this quiet
DATE
summer week
DATE
. Whether
Wednesday
DATE
will be a pivotal day in terms of
fed
ORG
meeting
minutes
TIME
whether they try to signal. Hey, wake up
four
CARDINAL
Had funds rate is actually a reality. Do you believe that this will be a catalyst for some sort of dollar strength for more market disruption? As people kind of start to hear, would they powell was saying? Ate the hard to know for sure cos I think I think what the you know I think I think the last difference you meeting was about stepping away from excessive forward guidance. So I don't know if they want to come back and stir us too hot. I think
Jackson
PERSON
holds a different We've had from
Central Banks
ORG
in a very complicated and chaotic global economy. It just doesn't make sense. They should take the threat, you know, the facts as they are when they get them
Last year
DATE
. On and so forth. So so I I I would I would be a little bit depressed if I thought that they were still using FM 2 minutes to micromanage expectations. I would be more encouraged if they came out having seen the having seen the payroll data and having seen everything that we've seen since
this month
DATE
if they came in
Jackson Hall
FAC
and they don't say look You know, we have to get inflation back in its box and we can only do that By putting some slack into the labor market.
Kitchens
PERSON
just keep on eating and that's been problematic.
Lisa
PERSON
I was reading through the notes
last week
DATE
. And pretty much every single note said the same thing. It looked like to me at least that we were equating peak inflation lisa with peak
fed
ORG
hawkishness. I'm not sure whether you can do that. And a lot of people came out and basically said the
fed
ORG
put is still a fed call and that the more that stocks rally the more that the
Cause
ORG
this reverse and how much is this gonna become the reality and the talking point of
the next few weeks
DATE
It follows. As
Lisa
PERSON
just called it. Is this a fed call now? And does this
fed
ORG
have to respond to this aggressive rally we've seen in this equity market. There's aggressive tightening we've seen in credit spreads. I don't think those authentic the market helps the set but the reality is that inflation that with the labor market where it is Where it is as a result of that. In inflation made drift lower over the course of
the next six 9 months
DATE
. But they'll still have a problem because it's not outgoing. I'm back under five% easily from here. So, junior, there's a
two
CARDINAL
stage. So, so I think I think the
fed
ORG
's messaging in sense of the feds problem is the
fed
ORG
's problem Inflation mandate Wires action, more action. The market does what it does. The concern is that as soon as the market thinks they might have done enough. That that that's when you look at it and you think no they just haven't not until the data improved just quickly as an arsenal fan did you enjoy
two
CARDINAL
other
London
GPE
clubs just beating each other up for
90 minutes
TIME
Hey, it was good entertainment. Whatever else it was. Kids are such an kid thank you TK what a game your thoughts
Antonio
PERSON
contact baseball doesn't start like It's
the second week of this season
DATE
.
Antonio concert
PERSON
. It's great. I mean, you know, it works, what's so cool about it and we were talking about baseball jam where you're going. Doesn't start like this. It's
the second week of this season
DATE
. Thank you very much for like
eight
CARDINAL
other stories. Joining an arsenal but you look at the collapse of menu, you look at knotting him, That's the one. Yeah. The guy went from
Richmond
GPE
over to
West Ham
LOC
and that's exactly what happened. You know, I look it. I mean, I'm sorry. I look at Thomas and
Antonio
PERSON
. It's just sort of like surveys. I mean, it's great. Football Easter it's what he does when he talks about markets too he just blends the fiction with the reality Let me see. Hey Facebook Over the West Hampton. No, I forgot. That was an outrage. They deserve to lose an audience. Just so everyone's clear. Anna over at
Morgan Stanley
ORG
. I don't keep that a secret. I think she's absolutely brilliant. Here's the line from
Lisa Charlotte
PERSON
.
Lisa
PERSON
, you'll love this. Let's get real hair people. Let's get real.
This morning
TIME
. Look at the Look at where we are things aren't that bad and how much do we end up with one or the other winning out with a fed Keep going back. There we go.
Lisa
PERSON
shouting you. Best of friends. The TK it's good to be back thanks for such a warm welcome
Tom King
PERSON
it's a wonderful surprise Thank you very much. Take photo
2 days
DATE
. From
New York City
GPE
this morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
. Coming up. I'm told
Anne Marie Horden
PERSON
has a new studio down in
DC
GPE
. I'm gonna see what that looks like.
Adam
PERSON
tells
Tom
PERSON
it's better than us I'm looking forward to this. Up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word news I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
in
China
GPE
the Central Bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rates that
people's bank of China's
ORG
ramping up support for an economy that has been hurt by COVID lockdowns and a deepening property downturn new data shows at home prices well again in
July
DATE
meanwhile industrial Retail sales work
week
DATE
then expected another
US
GPE
congressional delegation. This one led by
Democratic
NORP
Senator
Ed Marquez
PERSON
visiting
Taiwan
GPE
China
GPE
says it is fighting back by adding more military patrols around the island. The congressional trip comes a lesson
Weeks
DATE
after the
one
CARDINAL
by house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
which led to unprecedented
Chinese
NORP
military exercises that climate crisis is compounding
Europe
LOC
's worst energy downturn in
years
DATE
in
Germany
GPE
the water level at
the Keyway Point
FAC
on
the Rhine River
LOC
is set to Low level
this week
DATE
. The rain is western
Europe
LOC
's most important river for the transport or feel and other industrial goods. The river is now at a level where bargers find it uneconomical to transit past that way point. It is a giant shift for wilds fargo. The bank that once turned out
one
CARDINAL
in every
three
CARDINAL
home loans in the
US
GPE
now plans to shri It's fast. A mortgage empire.
Bloomberg
PERSON
is known
Wells Fargo
ORG
is no longer committed to ranking
number one
CARDINAL
in the business. That comes after
years
DATE
of struggles to avoid costly probes and hits to the banks reputation. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloom Quick
WORK_OF_ART
take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysis and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries and
Leanne Garren's
PERSON
this is
bloomberg
PERSON
.
I'm going to name a couple of of your babies. I don't know if I'm asking you to choose amongst your children but you know, some of the most recognizable buildings by you, of course, the
millennium
DATE
bridge,
London City Hall
GPE
, the right stag, and the great court
British
NORP
museum, what was your favorite To do. The right stage does stand out because
first
ORDINAL
of all, it's an energy manifesto. So, so it transforms Neutral and there's a public building
Symbol
ORG
of a nation Recycling an existing building which has I mentioned earlier is the ultimate in sustainability if you can If you can get a new life to a building it also Public space of the roof level it is the most visited parliament in the world so it puts The public Above. Demonstration of democracy in action. Do you see that coming The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
. The difference between political gossip And policy intelligence.
Bloomberg
PERSON
government provides our clients with expert reporting
Analysis
PRODUCT
.
Bloomberg government Prepare
ORG
for an economic hurricane Thank you. Economic No one is above the law
Donald Trump
PERSON
is not above the law He needs to comply. Add to that the former president isn't king everyone has to follow the loss emerging all my colleagues don't prejudge what we don't know about yet and I'm also urging all my colleagues to.
Understand the weight of your words and support law enforcement no matter what. In some hot water, life from
New York City
GPE
this morning
TIME
. Good morning Week 100 with down
about a third
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
coming off the back of
4 weeks
DATE
of gains on a S and P the longest weekly winistry could a year so far and tell me taken back
50%
PERCENT
of the drawdown So we've taken a big bite out of that market route Full discussion full description
John
PERSON
I'm not a big fan of
Fibonacci
ORG
retracements just so everybody understands that but it was made a big splash of when you were I don't think you were at
Melania
GPE
you were still in
Rome
GPE
but it was a big deal that we went through It's quite runsome. We're gonna be picking up on that a little bit later. Also talking about what's happening in the market too. I wanna keep hitting the drum on that. Crude 88. Yes. By
four
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
. It's not just crude
Copper two
ORG
. So I can obviously see
today
DATE
just on my
Bloomberg
PERSON
screen. A lot of red sum. Getting out. Yeah off of
China
GPE
and again
West Texas
LOC
intermediate
88
CARDINAL
.
06
CARDINAL
. It's stunning down
four large dollars
MONEY
. Right now to move forward to a
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
after the shock of
Learned
GPE
last week
DATE
about this out of the other thing with former President
Trump
PERSON
and rehart and joins us some
Bloomberg
PERSON
in
Washington
GPE
with the morning at briefing I like what
the New York Times
ORG
did this morning
Anne Marie
PERSON
they sort of move the story forward by talking to They were actually in the offices
John Bolton
PERSON
was In
Maggie Heberman's
PERSON
article did he do nothing about any of the shifting stories that we hear from President
Trump
PERSON
simply on the desperation the moment for various parties what's next? Well, when you talk about the desperation, the varying parties, you see the
Republicans
NORP
It's really cool last on how they are going to message this in a unified way you saw some temperament over
the weekend
DATE
from some representatives saying that this needs to be justified and why they decide to go into the former president's home but many of them including representative Fitzpa Prior life was saying how we should reserve a judgement until we get more information because what you also have over
the weekend
DATE
is the
FBI
ORG
and
the Department of Homeland Security
ORG
issuing a bulletin letting law enforcement individuals know and also government facilities people who work in courts etceter That there are potential threats against them because what we are seeing right now. Well, what's the win? There when there's more information for anybody on whatever side of the argument they are is when
Tuesday
DATE
is when In
2023
DATE
. Well, we don't know. I mean,
Intelligence committee
ORG
For the information that was in these confidential documents
11
CARDINAL
sets of confidential even above that clock classified documents because they want to see for the
Republicans
NORP
whether not the Justified but the
Democrats
NORP
it's really about the gravity of this type of situation and the questioning of other national security was in fact compromised but we don't know when there's a big question of if See the affidavit if the panel could see the likes of this kind of information but there's no timeline but To your point that you started with how much pushback is there within
the Republican Party
ORG
to tone down the rhetoric substantially in order to avoid some of the threats unlock enforcement that we've been seeing especially because they are the party tradition of law and order. Right in the
Democrats
NORP
are taking every moment they can to pounce on that saying I thought this was the party for law and order we are going to in fact be the ones that wanna make sure that we are protecting law enforcement officials I mean the spectrum is very wide you have representative
Margaret Taylor Green
PERSON
that's campaigning fundraising on merchandise that says quote Much more tempered like we just heard from representative
Fitzpatrick
PERSON
on
CBS
ORG
's
Face The Nation
WORK_OF_ART
on
Sunday
DATE
talking about that both sides.
Fitzpatrick on
CBS
ORG
's
Face The Nation
WORK_OF_ART
on
Sunday
DATE
talking about that both sides should really withhold judgement until we get more information and that is the struggle right now The
Republicans
NORP
more than the
Democrats
NORP
. Both sides are trying to use this ahead of the midterm elections. How is it featuring into some of the polling that we've been seeing in terms of either giving a boost to the
Republicans
NORP
that still definitely think of former As a leader versus the
Democrats
NORP
who are trying to use this to rally people for the law and order kind of side of things. Yeah so so We've seen is that they're using this as a messaging tool. I think until there's more information, it'll be hard to see exactly how the electric feel but by and large, they are showing up on party lines.
Republicans
NORP
really want just For this rate they say it's unprecedented to go into a former president's home to
Democrats
NORP
say it's unprecedented for president to take home
11
CARDINAL
sets of these highly classified So the polling is likely going to the
democrats
NORP
are going to poll Or the messaging they're going to have is definitely going to be based off off of the fact that it do not wanna see another President
Trump
PERSON
coming to office. They're gonna be using this. Towards that, towards their case for that, but for the
Republicans
NORP
, it's going to be really an attack on the
Democrats
NORP
and the fact that they think that this is a politicized
Garland
ORG
are doing. Promise the world a tour of the new studio. Gonna give us a sneak peek. Do we get a little look? Hey
Washington DC
GPE
what did you think of that The desk tea cake full desk Her her desk is like the size of the desk at the echoes building for the
Message
ORG
Larry
Cole
PRODUCT
can we go down there
Tom
PERSON
and we get some fed officials around the table oh yeah there's a little chitchat
Lisa
PERSON
can tell him what she really thinks about the federal reserve and what we've been up to the last Yes. I'm subtle. You know and join studio and
Marie
PERSON
hey mate thank you it looks awesome looking forward to the conference down at
DC
GPE
as we approach the midterms and
Tom
PERSON
development so for
the weekend
DATE
just wow For a lot of people watching this play out. Answer. I think it was a nation. John, without question in shock
last week
DATE
. It just real truly just simply historic and the question is the path forward here I would say
this morning
TIME
and particularly when you look at the
Washington
GPE
's post
this morning
TIME
was essentially no articles on this on the front of the fold on the internet. There's a whole mystery here developing what's next in We're gonna know
Tuesday
DATE
or
Wednesday
DATE
. What's next? Some of the rhetoric Sides. Bit of calm
this morning
TIME
. Features down. Let's call it a
half
CARDINAL
of one% on the SMP on the Nasdaq down to
four tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. A live from
New York City
GPE
this
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
. Head on radio. See you on TV for our audience worldwide this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
surveillance.
You're so intimately linked to the future of the
UK
GPE
what are you seeing when you go to branches and in the country yeah we're Lot of anxiety at the moment. You know, I think that recovery from the pandemic has been and is continuing to be very strong. So, I think we're seeing the economy recover. But with rising interest rates with inflation. Those, those are things that you know, peoples and families and businesses haven't had to deal with for
10 years
DATE
. So, a lot of business
Yesterday
DATE
. Haven't had to operate in that environment. So, it is causing quite a lot of Which means you know it it for us because we're up and down the country in branches and offices we can spend a lot of time talking to businesses and helping them Deal with it but it is it is very different and it's not something people have had to operate in for a long time. Allow me to bring you a snapshot of this market right now.
A good morning
TIME
to you. We are slightly negative. We down
a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
on a yes and peel on the last that
100
CARDINAL
with down
four tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
under performance on a rust or the small caps down
three quarters
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Our performance of this equity market over
the last 4 weeks
DATE
though.
4 weeks
DATE
of games on S and P. The longest week the winner streak of
the year Far
DATE
and
about 17%
PERCENT
of the lows of
2022
DATE
now on the S and P 500 finally I get to say this and I think we can all say this good news is good news if you put together decent payrolls with a downsight surprise on inflation I don't think there's any other way of coloring it
Lisa
PERSON
good news is good news and that's what this market's been responding to The least you think it's overreacting and going too far any other direction that's a separate debate. You die saying good news is good news. Very happy. I've said the news. I cannot wait to see you. It's good news. It's good news. Good news is good news for everything including bond hills going lower which sends us different signals. So, right now, there's some pretty conflic Signals going on even as good news for stocks is good news. Thanks
America
GPE
last week
DATE
and both of them picked up on that inflation report. Elements of it still pretty hard. Pointies of
two
CARDINAL
some stickiness through the rest of
this year
DATE
and a feathers got more work to do. That's picked up Let's be clear about that. Let's take a look at
two tens and 30
DATE
. It's twos versus tens. The difference right now. Still negative
about 40
CARDINAL
basis points or so
Tom
PERSON
we are still in premier as well with a
2 year
DATE
325
CARDINAL
and a
10 year
DATE
that's already
three
CARDINAL
. The pathway sorry I don't know if you're aware of it John but the misera index are
210
PRODUCT
spread went out almost a
50
CARDINAL
basis points a solid negative
49
CARDINAL
basis points to curve and version it's come To a negative 43 base response and still that would be headline banking except we had that surge out near
50
DATE
.
Maybe confirm better spending with gas Is coming down. Look to the control group for maybe a snapshot of that. And we also gotta talk about this commodity market. Bring crudes down almost five%. Coppers down almost three%. At some that they try out of
China
GPE
. It's just ugly and I'm not sure Car. It's gonna get it done for anyone.
Europe
LOC
is John did moving from careful time. Hey Hey portal the European World Catholic to
New York City
GPE
and Hey Facebook A long waver. We're back some. We did well. It's nice. It's a good game. Seriously we begin
Coverage
ORG
. This is not a normal jack to
all this year
DATE
. There's something in the air you won't know what it is until that
Wednesday
DATE
, that
Thursday
DATE
, when we begin to gather on that beautiful, truly extraordinary lake with a represent
The Kansas City Fed
ORG
.
Peter Hooper
PERSON
joins us global head of economic research. It do at your bank. Peter, I wanna vamp off neil sharing. Oh, I thought at a great noted capital Aggregate supply and aggregate demand curve and we're not gonna go into the vertical nature of supply here but he said supply supply supply Can a supply shack be cured that can come to the rescue for chairman
Powell
PERSON
?
Tom
PERSON
supply shocks are always tough for the feds you know But contrary to the the view that supplies the driving factor right now our numbers are telling us it's really become demand supply was the fact
Last year
DATE
. My colleague
Justin Wyden
PERSON
has been doing a really nice job of sort of Getting into the date and detail and finding that as this, as
this year
DATE
is going on, it's it's really much more a demand driven Hey Facebook can in fact handle Explain to our listeners our viewers why buoyant demand is a bad thing
82
CARDINAL
.
45%
PERCENT
of them think economists and chairman are nuts if demand is a bad thing. Well, what's what's the bad thing is what people feel the pain and people are feeling at the grocery store, the the pump and just about anywhere you're trying to shop
these days
DATE
. Hey When they when you do have some supply problems especially What's behind this this Fire that we're dealing with right now. And that's our view for some time has been that this is driving us into a recession eventually. The fat is gonna have to tighten enough to It. So, yes, the man is a good thing but too much demand is is really unwelcome at this point. So, Peter given that, how much conviction do you have that we have seen peak inflation that so many people said
last week
DATE
? You know mark at the his rallied around the sense that headline headline CPS come down court CPI Continued the plat at a high level And the underlying inflation the trim mean numbers continued up so so There is some there are some good news out there but the market they think is ignoring at least several factors that are really a problem right now that underlying
Number two
CARDINAL
should expectations We had a little good news from
the New York Head
FAC
recently but
Michigan
GPE
is still is up and and the survey professional forecasters is up substantially
Expectations
ORG
index is not News and then add to that the labor market is still on fire I mean the latest the last labor market report There's been some little good news out out there but we're not Paying attention to the the really serious news that's gonna be driving the
fed
ORG
going forward. There are a lot of potential risks for the
US
GPE
economy but arguably there are many
Out there but we're not paying attention to the the really serious news that's gonna be driving the
fed
ORG
going forward. There are a lot of potential risks for the
US
GPE
economy but arguably there are many more for the rest of the world in particular
Europe
LOC
and there have been A number of economists that are crowded. It's basically consensus that
Europe
LOC
will go into recession as it tries to combat inflation that's north of eight%. Do you agree that
Europe
LOC
looks It's in a much worse position in the
US
GPE
or do you think that it's more nuanced than that?
Mike Myers
PERSON
team colleague
Mark Waller
PERSON
, chief For a while Do see things Turning negative
second half this year
DATE
. Into
next year
DATE
. Overall, a negative for the year of the whole in
2023
DATE
. And that is a combination The the energy crisis, the gas crunch hitting
Germany
GPE
and and others pretty hard. The the tightening of financial conditions as the ECB has gotten into the act and and there they're not gonna be backing off from inflation that's actually running even higher there. Than it is in the
US
GPE
right now. So,
Europe
LOC
,
Europe
LOC
is headed for downturn. We we're fully on board with that one.
Peter, Uber, Ramifications
ORG
of another
75
CARDINAL
beeps up. Let's say in
September
DATE
,
October
DATE
,
November
DATE
, and whenever I I guess we approached neutrality. You don't know where it is. I don't know where it is but what is the actual ramification to Listen to the country of another big lift and rights. Well you you can be thankful that the
fed
ORG
is on there is is on the case here in a in a way that they should be They are moving back as you say toward neutral and we think they'll be somewhere in the neighborhood around
the end of the year
DATE
maybe
first half next year
DATE
certainly And that's going to as we get above neutral that is gonna slow the it can begin to slow the economy enough to begin to deal with the This inflation. The cost of course is for the average
US
GPE
household is going to be some pain on on on the job front. We are going into a recession but the the wider effect of high inflation is something we really have to deal with so yes bad brace We've been on
50
CARDINAL
but certainly the risks we think still are are toward
75
DATE
and that's Which is better news for the economy down the road. Peter just quickly hear
Steven Major
PERSON
over at
HSBC
ORG
put out a note where he said
one
CARDINAL
reason why perhaps the terminal rate will not go as high as many people had previously expected for the federal reserve. It's because of the amount of debt currently outstanding. It is just too We've already seen it with the mortgage rates. How much do you see that as a constraining feature and how much you think that perhaps that's overplayed? I think it's overplayed I think certainly a household You know Household sector balance sheets are looking very solid at this point. Banking sector is looking pretty strong. Yes, national that is, is a problem, and that's gonna be paying as rates go up. We have to deal with the inflation problem. That's a bigger issue. I don't see the recession that's coming. We think it's gonna be By historical standards on the milder side in part because household balance is a pretty firm at this point. Peter always great to catch up with you sir. Bit of hooper there of
Dodge
ORG
Lisa Steve Major
PERSON
proponent of that theory for a long long time Idea that in the bomb market of treasuries too there is this south fulfilling south limiting element to it that the high yields go the more they have to back away because ultimately the debt part that you describe which is reason why so many people have come on and said they have conviction in the longer term yields even if on the short end perhaps you could see that rise the reason for the inversion the reason why people think that we could go South of
Priya Mizra's
PERSON
50
CARDINAL
basis point of inversion
40
CARDINAL
basis points of inversion and get to
80
CARDINAL
or 100 akin to
1970
DATE
's
Next week
DATE
. Oh yeah. Yeah. Sometimes it's a snooze fest. You all in TJ. Yeah, I mean, you know, I was talking to
Muhammad
PERSON
,
Larry
PERSON
,
Olivia
GPE
this weekend
DATE
, and you know, they're upset. They're not invited. That's my question,
Tom
PERSON
. That's the number
one
CARDINAL
question I have. If they are or not. I hope they are. Because otherwise
Muhammad Larry
PERSON
,
Olivia
GPE
this weekend
DATE
, and you know, they're upset. They're not invited. But that's my question. So, that's the number
one
CARDINAL
question I have. I don' They are or not. I hope they are. Because otherwise this is a convention for the people who were wrong. Over in
Jackson Hope
PERSON
,
Jackson
GPE
,
Ohio
GPE
. I think
Michael McKea
PERSON
is our best relationship with the good At
the Kansas City Fed
ORG
but there's a tradition to this John which borders towards boring academic papers but then it does blow up based on events. I don't think it's rude to say a bit largely the
FMC
ORG
has gotten a lot of inflation wrong as a whole. So, how do they The ballots. The counterbalance to their views. How much of a back and forth do you see in some of the academic research? To me, I actually will find that fascinating. The academic research in particular, where is the emphasis? The risk of Too quickly now and perpetuating economic growth or the risk of
1970
DATE
's on repeat you know that to me is gonna be a massive indication to market That quote from
Tom
PERSON
. I will be more respectful than you. Is that in the small print for the showtime? Let's talk about forest. In
West Hampton
GPE
. Is that gonna be your team of
the year
DATE
?
The Detroit Tigers
ORG
should be relegated. I'm sorry. I know but you know come on it's exciting to see
Nottingham Forest
PERSON
take out
Nick Muhammad
PERSON
in
West Hampton
GPE
I mean just down
a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
from
New York
GPE
Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word news I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
China
GPE
has added military patrols around
Taiwan
GPE
after another
US
GPE
congressional delegation visited
Beijing
GPE
said it was fighting back against a trip a led by
Democratic
NORP
Ed Markey
PERSON
the visit came
less than 2 weeks
DATE
after the
one
CARDINAL
by house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
that set off an unprecedented wave of
Chinese
NORP
military drills around
Taiwan
GPE
now
Russia
GPE
's president
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
is offering Band relations with
North Korea Putin
GPE
sent a message Congratulations to
Kim John Uns
PERSON
rating for its liberation day holiday
North Korea
GPE
has been stoppiling artillery for
decades
DATE
and this has Some analyst speculate that it could supply weapons for
Russia
GPE
's war in
Ukraine
GPE
in
Russia
GPE
lawyers for
American
NORP
basketball star
Britney Griner
PERSON
have appealed for her
9 year
DATE
prison sentence for drug possession right now was convicted on
the fourth of August
DATE
she was arrested
last February
DATE
To vape a canisters containing cannabis oil were found in her luggage.
Sania Ramco
ORG
has posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of any listed company around
Co
ORG
followed other big royal rivals reporting a surgeon earning due to high crude prices. Net income rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter
DATE
almost double It was
a year earlier
DATE
. Tributes are pouring in for
Andrew Jane
PERSON
that can tour fetch
Gerald
PERSON
president and former cocio of
Deutsche Bank Jane's
ORG
death was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. He spent
two decades
DATE
at
Deutsche Bank
ORG
and Into a global trading powerhouse and shoe chain was
59
CARDINAL
global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg Quit Take
PERSON
powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
We make it very transparent to the shopper before they accept an order. What's your order? It's gonna look like, how much we're gonna pay them, and how much like the consumer is paying them, and so they can decide whether they take an order, how was else it refuse it Flexibility. Transparency that they want. Are you seeing a labor shortage right now? And what are you doing to combat that? It's different in different places. All demographic
Shoppers
PERSON
is completely different from food delivery and write sharing we're
70%
PERCENT
women and
half
CARDINAL
of them are moms and that's because a lot of the job at very different and just being in the car with strangers it's about the going to the store doing a good job of customer service of really picking the right products for And we are seeing that being very appealing to women. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance. Digital currencies under some pressure. All comes down to the details here. Bitcoin is mine. BSO now is your online home for
weekly
DATE
Boston Symphony Orchestra
ORG
and
Boston Pops
ORG
performances see new concerts that go behind the scenes plus acclaimed our carnival concerts visit
PSO
ORG
. Org slash now where the music plays on BSO season sponsor
Bank of America
ORG
Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers in this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather we'll explore the science behind the recent heat wave it's going to get more extreme than it is now I'm afraid that's inevit The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills and until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. Solutions for the planet to mitigate and adapt. We need government To lead on this and we need government to And stop sending
Sam Headquarters
PERSON
in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
airing this weekend
Bloomberg TV
ORG
quick take ants online They are projecting at the moment without knowing what's gonna happen globally that the price in
the fourth quarter of this year
DATE
per
gallon
CARDINAL
will probably drop to
about $378
MONEY
. So, we hope that that's true but again, it can be impacted by what's happening globally. We all hope that's true. That was Jennifer Over the weekend live from
New York City
GPE
. Good morning to you. Here's a snapshot. The price action
this Monday
DATE
. We are down
a half
CARDINAL
of one% on the S and P on the
third
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Crew and car park commodities having a tough time of it
this morning
TIME
.
8770
CARDINAL
on WTI with down by
about four
CARDINAL
. Seven And I can tell you the data out of
China
GPE
just ugly, ugly, ugly, downsight surprise after downside surprise and a little rate cut in the mix as well
Tom
PERSON
in response to some of this. It's a mix and
Elizabeth
PERSON
economy and see if far I think she's been brilliant. John, I'm sort of surprised equities aren't down more. I mean You know I you mentioned that half a percent move on the Dow. Sure. I didn't mention that you did but I'm with you. Yeah, okay.
China
GPE
is not a secret son. It's not a secret. Yeah. Seen a lot of it through
this year
DATE
so far. An oil.
Ellen Wall
PERSON
joins senior fellow at
the Atlanta Council
ORG
and really quite good on particularly the mix.
It's not a secret. Yeah. Seen a lot of it through
this year
DATE
so far. Unoil
Ellen Wall
PERSON
joins senior fellow at
the Atlanta Council
ORG
and really quite good on particularly the mix of what's going on in
Saudi Arabia
GPE
and thank you so much for joining us
today
DATE
. Should we get used to oil in
80
CARDINAL
or 90 or are you with a school of thought that normal is much higher and we're just done borrow I'm down here. Time but I do think that
four
CARDINAL
the the current the current picture that yes higher is definitely a new normal and when you look at the changes that are going on in the
US
GPE
in terms of oil production and new regulations and different corporate outlooks Words increasing production there's definitely a trend towards less dynamic To the market Costs in terms of production. Slower increases in production, and so I think we we definitely could be looking at somewhat higher basis in terms of of oil, and as you've been mentioning inflation also does play a role in that. A
gallon
CARDINAL
for gas in this country right now on average we've seen numbers decline decline decline
every single day
DATE
going back to
the middle of June
DATE
it's pretty impressive staff secondary
Grandheim
ORG
over
the weekend
DATE
to
CNN
ORG
hoping it continues do you have that same feeling that it will continue Well I think that you also have to remember that seasonality is still a very important component in gasoline demand and gasoline prices and generally around this time we do see a slight dip in demand school is starting for large portions of the country and this summer driving season is coming to an end but Think that what will really give us a good sense of where things are headed in terms of gasoline prices and demand is as we hit the the falls we hit
September
DATE
when refineries have to go into their maintenance season I think we'll get a good picture of weather demand is Wrong weather is going to to drop off because typically prices decline but we'll refineries feel secure enough to even go offline to do maintenance or will they feel pressure to keep churning out more and more barrels and how to put off needed maintenance and that could be a significant factor for gasoline prices for the rest of the year
Ellen
PERSON
is COVID oh and
China
GPE
ending that after
the National People's Congress later
ORG
That would be a huge deal if if
China
GPE
ended it's COVID oh policy because essentially the market is always On edge. Is
China
GPE
gonna shut down? Is this
New York City
GPE
gonna shut down? What's demand gonna look like out of
China
GPE
? And to some extent, you get AA little bit of a sense when they issue their import quotas especially for the independen Wineries but how much oil they're gonna be importing but at the you know at the stroke of a can they could basically crush domestic demand and so I think that if they do get rid of this oh COVID polic I think that that will be quite telling for the market especially for
the next year
DATE
. Well, but how tight is production right now? How tight are supplies? And that's I guess with the the question that I have is how resilient is the market
two
CARDINAL
-way potential shock and demand.
One
CARDINAL
way or another, right now, we're seeing cooling demand. How low with those B if it weren't for that tightness. Yeah I don't think I think we we could definitely
Lucy
PERSON
prices you know down in
the 60s
DATE
if it weren't for that tightness but on the other hand part of the tightness is what is causing prices to to cool down the fact that they were so high because things were tight and then we did see some demand destruction. We are seeing continued fears of global recession. You know, even if we do get more data of
Europe
LOC
Does pledge into recession which I think most people think is gonna happen. That doesn't necessarily mean that there's still not gonna need oil because prices electricity prices there are still so high and that could cause them to switch to to some oil. The distinction to me and say a given
100
CARDINAL
page research report Is the potential demand of
the Pacific Rim
LOC
and even the
Pacific Rim
LOC
China
GPE
do you believe in that that they're gonna have the boyant boom over
1 year 2 years 3 years
DATE
it's gonna
The Pacific Rim
LOC
and even the
Pacific Rim X China
LOC
do you believe in that that they're gonna have the buoyant boom over
1 year
DATE
,
2 years
DATE
,
3 years
DATE
. It's gonna pop oil to a permanent above 100 I I don't believe that that's necessarily going to be the case. I definitely think that there's room for an economic boom there. But I I wouldn't say that that's definitely gonna cause oil to to stay above
100
CARDINAL
especially if you're looking at say a major decline In
European
NORP
demand if you're looking at economic weedness in
America
GPE
those could all be significant factors and also remember that when
the middle of December
DATE
comes
early December
DATE
that's These sanctions on
Russian
NORP
oil are supposed to take effect and I think that that would be very telling for where oils going in
the next year
DATE
and in
2023
DATE
and how well these sanctions are actually enforced or adhered to. We've heard that a lot haven't we? You know that already. Looking at the data out of
China
GPE
. It was just terrible. Industrial production. Downside surprise. Retail sales. Big down size surprise and off the back of that bramo. Commodities. Just ugly, ugly, ugly,
this morning
TIME
. It It was employment. Of
China
GPE
and then it was the response you talk about a rate cut
10
CARDINAL
basis points which is basically window dressing indicating they're gonna have to do a lot more but a lot of analysts are saying they can't really achieve real momentum real growth with monetary policy this requires something else potentially even the end of oh codes A right cut a
10
CARDINAL
basis points. It's not gonna be effective
Friday
DATE
but it's not gonna get it done. No one thinks it is. Is it more a signal that more is to come. TK I think for you this has been front and center more than anyone you've About it. COVID oh in
China
GPE
without understanding where that's going. Can we really put together a decent outlook? Hey, that's where I am in full disclosure folks. I'm Family members in
China
GPE
but
John
PERSON
I'm sorry nothing matters but their garbage COVID policy nothing matters. It's bad medicine. And others you know all the different good people we talked to her legit medical pros say this is nuts I hope that he has actually said that time Did someone else said it? Hey Facebook Hey Facebook That's a word. Yeah, it's a workshop. Go ahead. So is there more pressure when you're trying to win a basketball championship? Then when you're trying to please investors where's the greater pressure I think it's definitely trying to win a championship. It's hard because a lot of like when you invest and you know this, when you're investing You can control a lot more things It on a basketball court you can't control whether somebody's gonna make a shot you've gotta get
You can control a lot more things It on a basketball court you can't control whether somebody's gonna make a shot you've gotta get lucky and what's the greater pleasure making
five
CARDINAL
times your money on a distressed dad investment or winning the
NBA
ORG
championship They're both fabulous I wish I could do
one
CARDINAL
each year that would be great but You've done a tremendous amount of work and you've made money for your clients which I think is great. Winning a championship It's a very surreal feeling because there's a whole city or state that is actually behind you You know, we had
70 1000
CARDINAL
people at the finals and we had them all outside. It's
17 1000
CARDINAL
in stands. And then literally like
60 1000
CARDINAL
people outside. And when we won like just the joy that you had brought to the city was phenomenal. Access the financial world on demand. Here from leading economists Policy makers. And industry experts be alive and on demand webinars. Only from
Bloomberg
ORG
. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com webinars In a
seven 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
industry there's a lot of ground to cover. Prepare for an economic hurricane. Happening in ETF like no one else
Bloomberg
PERSON
ETF IQ. Awful weather
Plain
PERSON
old inflation targeting. It's a beautiful thing. Good
morning
TIME
. Worldwide. Thank you
Brammo
PERSON
. I'm not getting that from TK
Mike
PERSON
. With some keen and
Lisa Brown
PERSON
with some
Jonathan Pharoah
PERSON
future's negative four tenths of the S and
P. Tom Keen
PERSON
, the longest weekly winner streak of
the year
DATE
so far. Yeah, there's a community week. We're gonna talk. We'll talk football here. We'll talk
Jackson Hall
PERSON
, big theme coming up for us, but You're right. It is all about the equity market. Huge differences of opinion and to start strong and sour with
David Bianco
PERSON
is a good thing. Looking forward to that time. Great quote on this program
last week
DATE
a different between a bear market rally and something more durable hindsight apparently we're seeing quite a run over low he's haven't we Agree with that and you know I'm I'm watching the mumble jumble go forward here and I think a huge amount of this John is just how unloved this market was on
June 16 June 17
DATE
in the easy money's been made now what? This rally is not loved. Let's be clear about that. This bounces hate it. Yes. In some places including over at
Morgan Stanley
ORG
with
Lisa Charlotte
PERSON
,
Lisa
PERSON
, she said get real.
Mike Wil Said
PERSON
the risk reward remains unattractive. So how much of this has to do with fundamentals the earnings that were not terrible they've crossed the bar for the lowest potential outcome but not phenomen But then also how much is a squarely about the federal reserve the fact that you see people piling into longer duration at treasuries you have a yield coming down this is basically easing conditions how much is this counter intuitive kind of result Antithetical to what the
Fed
ORG
would like to see and driving a rally that is unsustainable on its own.
How much is this counterintuitive kind of result? Antithetical to what the
Fed
ORG
would like to see and driving a rally that is unsustainable on its face because the
fed
ORG
is gonna push back and say no just stop it. Gospel
this morning
TIME
. This is what it says. A tug of war over financial conditions. Lisa, they go on to say right now, the
fed
ORG
is losing and we think it will need to pull harder in the period ahead to avoid conceding more ground. When go ahead,
Tom
PERSON
. Accommodative that's You interrupt
every 5 minutes
TIME
there's nothing original about that. No, it's just original. I mean, I mean, I'm getting set for the, you can't go to
Jackson Hall
FAC
,
Lisa
PERSON
, that gloomy. Now, you can go to the It's actually pretty hazardous. Our trail is no small feet but the pro chip out there is don't pet the wild animals. Brammo's gonna be out there, John. Oh, look at the little bear. That was Is gonna show up. Hike. Is that your tea enough? I think we should. Yeah. Okay. Hey Facebook That's my Hey Facebook take a One%. We should record it. Sell pay per view.
Subscription Fine
ORG
. Hey Facebook Six. If you're just tuning in the data out of
China
GPE
, ugly, we're gonna be talking about that all morning. And off the back of some of that ugly day to
Lisa
PERSON
, Crudelower, Copper Lower, WTI
8788
DATE
. I love it. That's the new martial art is us trying to take a family hike with a bottle of tank. Okay, here's what we're looking at.
This week
DATE
is gonna be an On
Wednesday
DATE
a bit After in terms of some of the data. However,
today
DATE
, we are looking at
Empire Manufacturing
ORG
for
the month of August
DATE
. It is usually the
first
ORDINAL
initial read on what's going on in
the month
DATE
that comes at
8:30 AM
TIME
: at the same time that we get
Saudi Aram Earnings
WORK_OF_ART
call after reporting record profits just giving you a sense of how high these profits were
quarterly
DATE
net income rose
90%
PERCENT
to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
that is net income and it comes as they see demand continuing to increase
four
CARDINAL
oil despite some of these goals of trying to reduce fossil fuels you are seeing prices roll over John you were talking about because of what we're seeing with
China
GPE
but how much I keep wondering this how much is this tightness in the oil market going to continue to drive prices higher or at least keep them where they are despite a lack of demand and at
10 AM
TIME
look at the latest read our home builder sent to me with the
August
DATE
NHP
ORG
housing market index how much does it start to stabilize as we see stabiliz Even a decline in mortgage rates but John this really goes to the heart of the issue. Mortgages are starting the rates are starting to come down. Even though the
fed
ORG
has not backed away from it's easy. How does this make sense? Is this going to come off too soon at a time in rents are so rising at a pace that is way beyond with the vote would like to see Over financial conditions into
Jackson Hull
GPE
next week
DATE
Lisa
PERSON
thank you do you wanna guess now let's get straight to it
David Bianco CIO
PERSON
for the
Americas
LOC
at DWS David your words do you think this is a bear market rally you think we're gonna retest the lows
later this year
DATE
so David I need the Y and what should we do in between Well the the wires is fairly simple. The
fed
ORG
's not done doing its job. They need to hike further. The economy's gonna slow likely contract. And the
US
GPE
economy's kind of Our view is that unless you believe the PE multiple of the SMP can be sustained at
20
CARDINAL
or higher with the deceleration and earnings growth that It's not an attractive reward for the risk. We do see things that investors can pick Here and there. But our view is that it may be a soft landing for the labor market. It's likely to be shaky and shaky air for GDP. Assets are still Risk for a hard landing. What's your conviction right now, David considering that people are saying this but then they're staying in their positions. Are you starting to sell some of your Your positions or you basically just staying where you are. Will we have due date
Considering that people are saying this but then In their positions. Are you starting to sell some of your riskier positions or you basically just staying where you are? Well, we have
Earlier in the year
DATE
, we've stuck with that position, we think of measured should keep cash at higher levels until we get past the autumn. The thing about corrections, we've already had a sharp one this They come in pairs. They come in bunches. You can go for many years without then all of a sudden you get a few. I think we get
one
CARDINAL
more
this year
DATE
. From there, I do think the S and P can rally to
40 14200
DATE
by
the end of the year
DATE
but I'm also still concerned that the longer term outlook for the S and P is no better than inflationary type gains for the next several Wrapped around factor analysis wrapped around the fat qualities winning right now. Can you have a bull market if only a little bit of the market goes up? Well, you need tech to rally and it sure did
the past several weeks
DATE
which is why the SMP If I get tech to rally into
2023
CARDINAL
is that a bull market? I'm not sure it is. Everybody would appreciate some breath and and some alternatives to the big cap tech names that have done so well and including in this rally I am a mac reminded investor I'd like to find macro factors and I tend to translate that into sector and industry preferences I would point out what I what I think is one of the most under her appreciated macro plays out there
Utilities
ORG
electric utilities in a world where natural gas is the essential commodity for the
2020
DATE
's in a world of electrification of vehicles and in a world where people want inflation protection An income, the dividends. Right. And what is still a very risky macro market. Right. What's the correlation with rights there, David? Yeah, hi, correlation, particularly with real interest rates, but part of the reason why the equity market Well over
the past several weeks
DATE
is that
10 year
DATE
tips yields came off their eyes and you know
30 40
CARDINAL
basis points versus
7080
CARDINAL
basis points
earlier in the summer
DATE
so I'm not too worried about Interest rates affecting utilities. However, because of the sensitivity at technology I think that's still still a relationship to monitor. Particularly
this morning
TIME
.
China
GPE
's week.
Europe
LOC
's going into recession everyone's on board with that theme. Into
year end
DATE
. What does that mean for
American
NORP
markets? Can we decapple from the rest of the world? Do you remember that conversation of
10 years ago
DATE
? Right. Do you see that taken place? That's right. Couple word. We're not supposed to use it. But there has been very much a delinquent between the
US
GPE
and the
Chinese
NORP
economy and I think it's important to remember that this It is very different from
the decades the past couple decades
DATE
past and while there are energy shortages and the risk of disruption for natural gas into
Europe
LOC
this is not a commodity boom from the demand side we already see oil below $
100
MONEY
a barrel I pick your spots carefully Commodities and I'd pick your exposure to
China
GPE
very carefully. We like
China
GPE
tech. For the long term and brave at heart but
China
GPE
's economy is slowing down greatly. The regulatory call you're not concerned about that. Well we are. You think you put money to work in
China
GPE
on the tech trade aren't you just a call on peace? Yeah. I would I would as I said for the long term and for those who believe in peace and rational actors amongst policy setters in
China
GPE
and
the United States
GPE
Here and take abroad is very sensitive to rational policies that takes a lot of faith right now that's for sure. David thank you. Better be
Anko
ORG
there. If
DWS
ORG
with a trade for the brave at least at the end of that conversation. I love the way that he framed that. Saying, if you believe in peace, if you believe in prosperity, if you believe in democracy, how much are you looking at faith based, investing, going forward, not just when it comes
China
GPE
but even in terms of what the new normal will look like that it will replicate something akin to the old even in a place like
the United States
GPE
.
Bianco
ORG
there
Tom
PERSON
the
US
GPE
economy the best show I wanna plan it in rough shape at the moment. I believe you know you've heard it John it's like a broken record on a
Monday
DATE
morning
TIME
from me I believe corporations will adapt it's all there is to it and frankly the nation will adapt we haven't even addressed massive legislation by the president or you love Eat it whatever the politics is in some form that's gonna be a fiscal stimulus
Massive legislation by the president will you love it or hate it whatever the politics is in some form that's gonna be a fiscal stimulus
Politics
ORG
. My car. Coming up from our new studio in
about 5 or 10 minutes
DATE
time. Futures right now. Negative four tenths on the SMP on the state down
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. We have taken out
about 50%
PERCENT
of the So far
Lisa
PERSON
and we're getting a lot of push back off the back of that range. It's the only way you're gonna know it's bare market rally but it does seem highly uncomfortable given that the economic data hasn't turned around in the way at least when it comes to inflation that many would like to say.
Surprised
PERSON
in the right direction though. Over
the last couple of weeks
DATE
that's for sure futures down
410
CARDINAL
sunny SMP off the back of this bad day out of
China
GPE
the
Nasdaq
ORG
softer by
two
CARDINAL
tenths of one% the old time given me much we're unchanged at 282
58
DATE
on
a 10 year
DATE
from
New York City
GPE
this morning
TIME
good morning Kevin up a little bit later
Lisa Hombia's
PERSON
looking forward to that up next it's AMH down in
Washington
GPE
this is Bloomberg Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word news I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
another
US
GPE
congressional delegation this one led by
Democratic
NORP
senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
is visiting
Taiwan
GPE
China
GPE
says it is fighting back by adding more military patrols Comes less in
2 weeks
DATE
after the
one
CARDINAL
by house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
which led to unprecedented
Chinese
NORP
military exercises now in
China
GPE
the central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate the people's bank of
China
GPE
is ramping up support for an economy that has been hurt by COVID lockdowns And a deepening property downtown. New data shows at home prices fell again in
July
DATE
. Meanwhile, industrial output and retail sales were weaker than expected. Members of
Congress
ORG
are putting pressure on
the US Government
ORG
to tell them what was in classified documents sees that the former President
Donald Trump
PERSON
's home
senate intelligence committee
ORG
leaders have made a bipartisan request to
the justice department
ORG
and the director of national intelligence they asked for an assessment of potential risk caused by the documents mishandling it's a giant shift for
Wells Fargo
ORG
the bank that
Turned
GPE
out one and every
three
CARDINAL
home loans in the
US
GPE
now plans to shrink its vast mortgage empire
Bloomberg
PERSON
has learned
Wells Fargo
ORG
is no longer committed to Struggle to avoid costly probes and hits to the banks refutation global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and all
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
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journalists and analysts and
more than 120
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countries I'm the Is Bloomberg.
700 anniversary
QUANTITY
of
Dante Alegary's
PERSON
death has triggered the work of many institutions and offered a very rich schedule of events Hey and set the crochet we present
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CARDINAL
of these projects that suffered a difficult start because COVID-19 has stopped the project that was shared by the opera desanticoche by the franciscan community from
Florence Municipality
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and the fun
Start because COVID-19 has stopped the project that was shared by the opera desanti coche by the franciscan community from
Florence Minnesota
PERSON
and the fun for religious building of the internal minister. Today
Feliz Limosani's
PERSON
project is finally enjoyable In the positive chapel the marvelous architecture by
Felipa Bruno Leshi Images
ORG
from the divine comedy created by the
French
NORP
illustrator
Gustaf Dore
PERSON
through these images we can live the violent emotions of hell the weight of purgatory and the sublime joy of paradise The digital humanity is also not cuz the digital humanities are a cultural occasion to exploit. Summing up it's about merging humanistic disciplines with new technologies. I find this to be an innovating and modern tool to update culture. Cultural heritage becomes something to hand over to the new generations and not to be put aside so it's about using technology pixels and binary code with a human and humanizing content. Need to catch up. Week I'm
David Weston
PERSON
. We think that's the next secular shift from businesses most influential and instrumental. This is the level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio. No one covers the world like
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Seven% in
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DATE
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policy symposium Only on
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GPE
television and radio
Mary Garland
PERSON
would not be the president's lawyer. He would not be the vice president's lawyer. This is about the
American
NORP
people and doing what is right for the
American
NORP
people,
the Department of Justice
ORG
, when it comes to law enforcement, is independent.
The White House
ORG
press secretary on ABS OBC over
the weekend
DATE
from
New York City
GPE
this morning
TIME
a good morning along
Tom Keen
PERSON
and
Lisa Brahm
PERSON
and some
Jonathan Farrow
PERSON
features our negative four tenths of
one% on SMP
ORG
500 off the back of
4 weeks
DATE
of gains on SMP 500 we have taken out
50%
PERCENT
of the drawdown was
17%
PERCENT
of the lows it's been quite a run in both the Nasdaq and the
SNP
ORG
over
the last month or so
DATE
you'll done change
this morning
TIME
at
282 70
CARDINAL
So keep coming back to the commodity market for you because it's pretty brutal
this morning
TIME
off the back of
summer the week
DATE
of
Chinese
NORP
data add a
China
GPE
downside surprise downside surprise Brent down about five% WTI crew down about five% copper
Down
PERSON
by
two
CARDINAL
. Five%
Tom WCI 87
PERSON
and
about 60
CARDINAL
. It will cover that through the morning here and again through
the week
DATE
. Retail sales extremely important
this week
DATE
. It really that's the that John don't you agree that's Please stop
John
PERSON
don't you agree that's the headlines to tell you Reading
this week
DATE
. Just trying to get a feel for the underlining underline story.
Bloomberg
PERSON
Washington
GPE
correspondent we I mention Permanent of justice and of course the uproar We're the former president now I like to take a different tack emory what I saw on the zit guys
this weekend
DATE
in a sleepy
August
DATE
not How does the steamy
July
DATE
that we had Was discussions of civil war Give me the tone that you see in all your reading and reporting of not a linkage of
Biden
PERSON
to
Lincoln
ORG
but justice in pending sense of where we are Where are we right now in this nation with this percolation of a potential civil war? Why think you have to go to the
Friday
DATE
bulletin that
the justice department
ORG
Department of Homeland Security
ORG
sent out to their teams to law enforcement around the country saying they are seeing a spike in violent threats mostly coming a lot of this from social media and also what you saw in
Cincinnati
GPE
last week
DATE
outside in
FBI
ORG
headquarters And this is concerns what they see in these threats are terms talking about taking a militias and a civil war so there are these concerns and you can see it just from the bulletins that the
FBI
ORG
and
Department of Holland
ORG
security is issuing to their departments you know the question is whether or not Continues to be a concern or does start to die down. Middle ground right now dashing to
the first Tuesday of November
DATE
I think we can talk about the middle ground of the democratic party maybe represented by the president but what is How are
Moderate
PERSON
GOP
ORG
or have they just given it up Well it's difficult right and you're talking about the primaries we have a big one tomorrow in
Wyoming
GPE
and you have lawmaker representative
Liz Chaney
PERSON
who the polls show is likely going to lose her seat to a very much so President
Donald Trump
PERSON
back contender so it's really this big divide within the
Party
ORG
you see that through the number of primaries we have seen amongst
Republicans
NORP
and whether or not how far these candidates were willing to go in terms of showing their fieldy towards the former president to get his backing and whether or not that helped him or not and it's kind of a mixed bag. I think tomorrow will be one of those highlights where you do see a And it that strongly supports the former president the questions many of the things like the select committee that is trying to show his involvement in
January 6
DATE
so you have this division within
the Republican Party
ORG
and I think what you're seeing in terms of what Is they are struggling right because as
Lisa
PERSON
mentioned the last hour this is the party of law enforcement the party that wants to back and fund law enforcement and they are in this very tricky precarious moment cuz members of their party are talking about Attacking those individuals and defunding them. Political soup and
Marie
PERSON
how do you place the international to my soup of politics we've got representatives from
the United States
GPE
heading back over to
Taiwan
GPE
not unheard of thing and
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
was the highest ranking but why are we having this in the mix right now with
China
GPE
now saying that they're going to extend some other military
Analyst
PERSON
will say that when you see lawmakers from
the United States
GPE
go over to
Taiwan
GPE
it's a lot of virtue signaling back home right this place very well into the politics especially ahead of elections to talking tough on
China
GPE
For
the past year
DATE
there's been
about 33
CARDINAL
lawmakers or under the
Biden
PERSON
administration has been
about 33
CARDINAL
lawmakers that went over to
Taiwan
GPE
you don't always hear about it it doesn't always get the kind of coverage that we saw from speaker
Pelosi
GPE
because obviously of her ranking being
third
ORDINAL
to the presidency and this trip is very much so getting highlighted in the
Chinese
NORP
press because As well as live military drills which likely included firing ballistic missiles over the island even into
Japan
GPE
's economic exclusions zone and what you are seeing
today
DATE
is the
Chinese
NORP
Talking about the
PSP
ORG
.
Likely included firing ballistic missiles over the island even into
Japan
GPE
's economic exclusion zone and what you are seeing
today
DATE
is the
Chinese
NORP
military talking about the
PLA
ORG
the people's liberation army preparing still for war and they are now going to have more patrols given that you do have this delegation there. Think about all of this. Well, it's mixed, right? So,
Taiwan
GPE
has
two
CARDINAL
,
two
CARDINAL
of their parties right now, the one that is in power. Definitely Lean's towards the rhetoric of independence, but there's a number of people in
Taiwan
GPE
that really wanna keep the status quo. They understand that they are tiny compared to
China
GPE
, also
China
GPE
, is there biggest trading Partner They don't wanna see a war and what they would like to see is the status quo and our reporter
Samson Ellis
PERSON
I think put it very well
a few weeks ago
DATE
when speaker closes on that trip and he said the repercussions will not come to
United States
GPE
repercussions will be faced by the people
Taiwan
GPE
. Amberie thank you
Elisa
PERSON
to Anna's point just to build on that this is not new but what is new is how
China
GPE
's responding to it and they're responding to these visits with much more aggression and it's surprising Not hearing more rhetoric about how concerning that is. It doesn't seem like there is a feeling that there's going to be war. How many articles have you read? How many analysts coming out and saying, should it doesn't wanna work? Neither just the
US
GPE
. Both of them are diffus
Taiwan
GPE
and the escalating military drills to complex moment
Tom
PERSON
if you Read on this the former
Australian
NORP
Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd
PERSON
. Yes. Over
the weekend
DATE
in
the Wall St Journal
ORG
. Pretty tiny piece. Exceeds his grasp. More than vocal about this and it goes
Australia
GPE
has a unique position I end this you know I was talking to
Qantas
ORG
about this and of course Person you know a little different but he has a real international weight here in his comments are I'm just to be clear. You won't speak into the airline. You were speaking to your
Australian
NORP
producer. No, but no, we're all quite as is, you know, you know, as parents named him. No, I was being fearline. Chiropractic. I don't know which it is. Honestly, if you don't follow
Confused
PERSON
. Pretty quickly. Yeah. Okay. Can we talk about manually? Yeah we'll do that. Future's down.
Half
CARDINAL
Florida
GPE
. Blown back.
So, what is the best investment advice anybody's ever given you? You don't need to have a good idea
every day
DATE
. So, there is times to be patient and there's time to press. Think it's the most common mistake that investors make the average investor. I think it's fomo. So, buy, hi, sell low. You know when and the amount of damage that does the average investor Is is Much suppose I have a extra $100 thousand what would you say that person should do with
100 1000
CARDINAL
to put an index fund or something else like that Yeah I mean I think for the average investor Buying an index but buying and holding and just letting it compound is really All advice. I think Someone tries to do the more damage they tend to do.
Gossip Policy
PERSON
intelligence.
Bloomberg
PERSON
government provides our clients with expert reporting analysis.
Bloomberg
PERSON
government Confronting a wall of doubt. Lisa shouted
American Stanley
ORG
saying get real.
Mike Wilson
PERSON
of
Morgan Stammy
GPE
saying the risk reward is unattractive. Futures
this morning
TIME
down
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
on the Eastern P after
4 weeks
DATE
of gains.
100
CARDINAL
. The longest weekly winner streak of
the year
DATE
so far and taking out
about 50%
PERCENT
of the draw down in
2022
DATE
. I believe we're close to
17%
PERCENT
or so off the lows. The message from the fed the message from city from
Bank of America
ORG
we have more work to do at the federal reserve and Look like this. Inversion that you'll curve Let's look at the drop right now
John
PERSON
you've got your math really well done
SPX
ORG
up a solid
17
CARDINAL
at percent down doesn't do quite as well in the nastic john from the bottom Up
22%
PERCENT
. You go to the media gloom song but it's not just the media. It's the whole of the south side. As well with the exception of maybe Mister
Klanovich
PERSON
over at
JP Morgan
ORG
. And I'd also say
Chris Harvey
PERSON
of
Wells Fargo
ORG
Sunday
DATE
. It's been very good. Just
Said
PERSON
that weakness you're looking for in this economy push it out to
early 2023
DATE
. Wanna come until
the first half of 23
DATE
. This is a market for the Bears the skeptics and the nervous and you know you want to work if I could Last couple of weeks saying that maybe this can generate some crowd again and pretty sure over
the last couple of weeks
DATE
that more and more people are getting that itch getting that itch what do they say price shape sentiment sentiment doesn't shape price and all that good stuff very good that's the bond market not We look a little something like this. We are down. Downside surprise in
China
GPE
after downside surprise in
China
GPE
. Ugly, ugly data, and before we got that date to the came out with the smallest of the rate cards. Crude is lower,
93
CARDINAL
on Brent, Copper is lower but down
two
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
. That is one to watch. That's what we do hit some fish An international feel Yeah, I know. Yes. Alright. Some single names based out of
London
GPE
. Operating elsewhere. His grandma. Oh operating on the other side of the room. I've taken a look just spinning off the commodity complex. This is the story of
the day
DATE
both with respect to the macro as well as the micro and the John was talking about that rally that would come back particularly in the broad indexes. Look under the hood and there's Whole lot of pain in the commodity section.
John
PERSON
was talking about that rally that would come back particularly in the broad indexes look under the hood and there's been a whole All been down
more than 20%
PERCENT
27%
PERCENT
before
today
DATE
even since
June 7
DATE
. This has been driving a lot of this feeling that perhaps we've hit peak inflation. This has been driving the fact that perhaps you have if you have a fed put or a Rather you have a On the market giving it wind. You can see this also in the oil complex seeing all of the major oil companies also declining in the face of a lower oil prices
today
DATE
. You could see for example, if you if you get a sense
today
DATE
of those movers, X on down
two
CARDINAL
. Six%
Chevrolet
ORG
,
two
CARDINAL
. Four% Devon energy down at
three
CARDINAL
.
Six%
GPE
. All of these
Down
PERSON
in
between eight to 14%
DATE
since that time so giving you a sense
Tom
PERSON
of just how much you've seen these come off a reverse of the trade that we saw for the first half of the year how much is this driving sentiment how much is something that we have not been able to predict and there's normally been a pain trade to try to gauge out the price of oil to gauge out where Are going to go how much is that was dictating the more benign mood in a risk assets Five% move down an oil 87 56 on
American West Texas
LOC
at intermediate they've not got enough credit credit swees at the bottom I meant What's forcefully optimistic. They've done a great job in equities and across a fixed income In getting the post pandemic rally right leaving their foreign exchange charge global head of
FX
ORG
strategy at courtesy
Shahab John
PERSON
joins us right now and part of that optimism is strong dollar you don't mince any words about Dollar gloom is not an order. No for us the framework remains the same as it has been really for
the past year
DATE
ever since the
fed
ORG
made a
hookish
NORP
tilt in
June of last year
DATE
so what we're seeing at the moment is still clear
US
GPE
outperformance when it comes to the the likelihood of avoiding recession there's a lot of talk
Us
GPE
recession risk but the truth is the problems seem much more gloomy in
Europe
LOC
and look at the
Chinese
NORP
numbers that we just had as well. How many other central banks do you know that are that are cutting rates?
Today
DATE
we had one from
China
GPE
. Yeah it was That is your dollar resilience about capital flow into
the United States
GPE
or is it about interest rate differentials Well it the the
two
CARDINAL
coincide quite often so definitely there's a rate differential story that's still very dollar favorable so that does tend to bring money into the
US
GPE
but we've also liked the dollar from a terms of trade perspective as well you've seen explain that Obviously the high energy prices are coming off now but the high energy prices that we've had they've done tremendous damage to the trade balances of many countries
Japan
GPE
,
Korea
GPE
,
the European Union
ORG
as well overall. And all of that has obviously caused lots of And that's something that gets overlooked sometimes when we're looking only in terms of you know recession risks and where interest rates are so there's there's
two
CARDINAL
prongs to this and for now that's not likely to change in a positive direction If all prices keep coming off people will seeing that maybe a sign of change but if the reason they're coming off is weak demand globally that also doesn't tend to help the lives of
China
GPE
or or For example the currency space. After the data and the policy response you feel a bit better about that trade
this morning
TIME
. I definitely do clearly we thought there might be some kind of a short term correction in favor of the The the heat died down a little bit around the political risk over
the past week
DATE
but clearly the the economic data there remain even weaker than we were expecting to be honest and the rate cut
today
DATE
Surprised
PERSON
most economists out there so our
695
CARDINAL
call for us still seems appropriate and really again as as I mentioned that was based above all on a diversion story and as I said with all the focus we've had on on the
US
GPE
recession risks maybe the market's taken as I off The ball a little bit on what's going on the rest of the world so for us that still seems the the path of least resistance to to go higher in dollar
CNH
ORG
Hey the market is taking this eye off the ball a little bit on what's going on the rest of the world so for us that's still seems the the path of least resistance to to go higher in dollars in age what is the character of this downturn in
China
GPE
and does it go beyond just this COVID oh policy we talk so much about. I think it does in the sense that clearly that's that's a big part of it but that does seem to be once you look under the hood some sense that certain sectors are in trouble for different reasons for example the property There. That's not entirely I guess about oh COVID. It there's an element of it but there's other issues to do it over leverage. And and really wants you create a problem like
China
GPE
has By creating a weak roast dynamic in effect it's quite difficult to get out of it and you can you see that really when you look at numbers like credit growth that we had on
Friday
DATE
that were very very weak once that credit multiplier turns off in essence it's quite difficult to reactivate it that's what Finding. We've seen that in many other economies as well. And I think that's where the
Chinese
NORP
are right now. If you add on top of that
the ever present year
DATE
political restory now that you know seems to be something that's not going to go away anytime soon. That also obviously cost the shadow Over the future too. So, I think there's many different issues in play here. It's not simply a oh cover story. So, amid all of this gloom, why is it that the carry trade in emerging markets has done so well. Continue to do so well. Will it continue to do that through the remainder of
the year
DATE
? It will become something a lot more painful. I think some areas of emerging markets already are in deep pain if you look at for example
Sri Lanka
GPE
that's been in the headlines Any kind of a positive way. There's other countries like
Pakistan
GPE
,
Kenya
GPE
. So, countries Side of emerging markets. They've already been suffering. So this carry trade that you mentioned is
Stephanie
PERSON
there for some larger economies that have benefited maybe from a terms of trade perspective The likes of
Brazil
GPE
. We have very high interest rates. As a
Central Bank
ORG
tries to take control over inflation. But actually their few and far between the number of markets that are really benefited from this flow. We're looking at the likes of
Brazil
GPE
,
Something
NORP
sent
South Africa
GPE
but I wouldn't say the wider emerging market space has been doing particularly well nor benefiting from general sense of of Carrie Inflows. I think it's a very select group of countries that that we're talking about here. With rates should the signal be it was only
10
CARDINAL
basis points than it have much here or it should the signal be this to the first play of more to come Well the
Chinese
NORP
tend to move in small increments when it comes to interest rate moves you don't you tend not to see
50
CARDINAL
pages point or
100
CARDINAL
basis point moves Like we see now, for example, in
Europe
LOC
and the
US
GPE
. So, I think really is the direction of travel that's the more relevant factor here, particularly in a world where everybody else is busy hiking rates So I think that's for me the key takeaway from this and that keeps this divergence theme in play and that's the most relevant element as far as currency go which is why again we have the
695
CARDINAL
target for
a dollar
QUANTITY
inch He's quite a call. Right now. Oh, I was thinking about that and you know, like to get
up to seven
CARDINAL
, seven you want is is really something. I mean, I mean, if we see that kind of week, remember that really strange out. A lot of different people, but I'm not sure John help manage that is. I I I go back and forth on that. What do you say a currency pair like that
one
CARDINAL
moves
710
CARDINAL
to
one%
ORG
on? That's something you pay attention to. Yeah. Yeah. You you know what I mean? Sick. It's been an evolution. I mean if you get the chart up on
USD
ORG
,
CNY
ORG
, the fact is it's been an evolu At here is a deal with this. I go back to the front center thing. Is everybody else's dealt with COVID? Some good, some bad. We've all got our storage unit And
China
GPE
just stands out and getting it wrong at this point. I'm with you focus on COVID oh To Shahab's point there's more than that going on there's a massive demographic issues there's real real estate problems that aren't just gonna be solved by COVID oh one off whatever it is and there's also this goal to delegate they're not as willing to throw leverage into System to try to support growth and you've seen that the
10
CARDINAL
basis point move really tap it yet might signal more to come.
So there's goal to deal leverage. They're not as willing to throw leverage into the system to try to support growth. And you've seen that the
10
CARDINAL
basis point move really tap it. Yeah it might signal more to come but Necessarily signal. A roaring all in that perhaps had been the past and that
seven
CARDINAL
level. We had seen in
2019
DATE
and 2020 ahead of the pandemic. On all of this it's
Bill Lee
PERSON
the chief economist of the milk and institute and we'll catch out with him in
about 50 minutes
TIME
we'll do that at
830
CARDINAL
eastern time features down
a half
CARDINAL
of
one% on S
ORG
and P on the Nasdaq with down a rad
about a third
CARDINAL
on the Nasdaq 100 he was not doing much 282 40 and off the back of that terrible day to in
China
GPE
crew
Kevin Hamard
PERSON
$
87
MONEY
a barrel WTI for
New York
GPE
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world were the first word news I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
China
GPE
has added military patrols around
Taiwan
GPE
after another
US
GPE
congressional delegation visited
Beijing
GPE
said it was fighting back against a trip led
Democratic
NORP
senator
Ed Markey
PERSON
the visit comes
less than 2 weeks
DATE
after the
one
CARDINAL
by the house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
that set off an unprecedented wave of
Chinese
NORP
military drills around
Taiwan
GPE
now
Russia
GPE
's president
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
is offering to expand relations with
North Korea
GPE
who can send a message Congratulations to
Kim John Uns
PERSON
regime for its liberation day holiday
North Korea
GPE
has been stoppiling artillery for
decades
DATE
that has led some analysts to speculate that it could supply weapons for
Russia
GPE
's war in
Ukraine
GPE
minutes from the last meeting of federal reserve policy makers may reveal their inclination on the size of the
Between 50 and 75
DATE
basis points the latest jobs report boosted the odds of a big rate hike while the CPI report decreased them the
minutes
TIME
are released on
Wednesday
DATE
Saddy Ramco
PERSON
has posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
We took any listed company around
Co
ORG
followed other big oil rivals reporting a surgeon earnings due to hide crude prices near income rose to $
48
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
in
the second quarter
DATE
almost double what it was
a year earlier
DATE
and tributes are pouring in for and
Jane
PERSON
. They can't or fit oh president and former cocio of
Deutsche Bank Jane's
ORG
death was announced on
Saturday
DATE
after
a 5 year
DATE
battle with cancer. He's been
two decades
DATE
at
Deutsche Bank
ORG
and transformed it into a global trading powerhouse and shoot
Jane
PERSON
was
50
CARDINAL
Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
You're so intimately linked to the future of the
UK
GPE
what are you seeing when you go to branches and in the country Yeah we're seeing a lot of anxiety at the moment you know I think that recovery from the pandemic has been and is continuing to be very strong so I think we're seeing the economy recover but with rising interest rates with inflation those those are things that you know peoples and families and businesses haven't had to deal with for
10 years
DATE
so a Business owners
today
DATE
haven't had to operate in that environment so is causing quite a lot of Which means you know it it feels
10 years
DATE
so a lot of business owners
today
DATE
haven't had to operate in that environment so cool is causing quite a lot of Which means you know for us because we're up and down the country in branches and offices we can spend a lot of time talking to businesses and helping them Deal with it but it is in it's very different and it's not something people have had to operate in for a long time. Prepare for an economic hurricane We make it very transparent to the shopper before they accept an order. What's the order? It's gonna look like how much we're gonna pay them and how much like the consumer is paying them. And so they can decide whether they take an order or is also refuse it. And that's the kind of Transparency that they want. Are you seeing a labor shortage right now? And what are you doing to combat that? It's different in different places. All demo Food delivery and write sharing we're
70%
PERCENT
women and
half
CARDINAL
of them moms and that's because a lot of the job at
Instacart
ORG
is very different and just being in a car with strangers it's about like going to the store doing a good job of customer service of really picking the right products And we are seeing that being very appealing to women. We debate how much
China
GPE
has held down
US
GPE
inflation over
the past 20 years
DATE
but it's been Supply chains are disrupted by
China
GPE
and other Around the world as we move from offshore to onshore Good luck in getting inflation down from exporting inflation to exporting a deflation or vice versa
Stephen Rochester
PERSON
of
Yale
ORG
on the latest We are down
four tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
yields unchanged at
282 22
DATE
and crude takes another leg lower guys we're down by more than Percent now.
87 32
CARDINAL
Tom
PERSON
on WTI.
87 32
DATE
in
Brant Distant
GPE
from
100
CARDINAL
distant from
1:24
CARDINAL
:
John 93 19 for Brent
LAW
a dip
under 90
DATE
would be a Big scene around not just screw
Tom
PERSON
but also copper as well off the back Hey Facebook Early trading copper
350
CARDINAL
Dipping under 356 John I also know gold off $
25
MONEY
back again under $
1800
MONEY
China
GPE
. I just think it's like,
OMG
ORG
, there's a
China
GPE
data. Let's do that now and then occur in
Bloomberg
GPE
Chief
Asia Economics Correspondent
GPE
and let me ask the pressing question. Was this a surprise It was because
July
DATE
was meant to be
the month
DATE
of recovery time
the third quarter
DATE
was meant to be all about
China
GPE
hauling itself out of the big lockdowns of the second quarter getting rose back on track and getting some momentum going We saw a weakness across the board retail sales came in much weaker than expected and best single sold for them expected in fact private sector investment well behind public spending we saw in Giving the export story with more eh we got a points on the real estate sector in terms of investment and new home prices and of course all of that together then is what Potential buying to cut it's key interest rate for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
January
DATE
now that move in and of itself was
Prices and of course all that together then is what forced essential bank to cut its key interest rate for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
January
DATE
now that move in and of itself was certainly not be a game changer for the economy the problem in
China
GPE
is not the the price Money it's a fact that nobody wants to borrow but it does speak to the idea that the
Chinese
NORP
economy now is slowing much faster than expected like I said at
the start July
DATE
was meant to mark the beginning of the turnaround but
today
DATE
's dad has certainly corrected that narrative I read a number of analyst reports saying on one hand that they suggest just how dire things are considering what they do not want to ease policy they do not want to fan the flames of inflation even though it isn't as significant or severe over there other people It just indicates they are prepared to do so much more going forward which side do we in on? I think it has to come down the latter
Lisa
PERSON
I mean they haven't cut his rights since
January
DATE
despite everything that's happening in the economy and that's partly because there's no shortage of liquidity System for example eh in fact even drains some money for the money markets today and there's no shortage of of loans available for banks and companies the issue is that they don't want to borrow. It's not about The landing rate. It's an offer to them. I think what it does symbolize though is that the authorities and I've started to pull whatever labor they have available to them and on the central bank side really that's just about what they can do. The money markets about trying to bring interest rates down and maybe take some pressure off say they really say borrowers but a big Focus now is going to be on where will the policy pivot come? Will it come on COVID oh? And all the messaging on that has been no way. They want to public health over the end. They're not going to eh you turn on that at least not before the
congress
ORG
. But so then you have to ask well what's going to happen Unfinished property projects and get some money flowing that part of the economy. These are the big questions going forward because a lot of
Said
PERSON
today
DATE
that the
July
DATE
numbers were so weak it's now changing the views for the rest of
the year
DATE
already
August
DATE
is looking weaker than they expected and the bad calf of
this year
DATE
is already gonna be weaker than what they thought
a few weeks ago
DATE
so what Social aspects of this is while we were talking about how basically one in
five
CARDINAL
members of the
Chinese
NORP
Society aged
16 to 24
DATE
are out of work. How significant is this for the for the people's
congress
ORG
heading into that meeting later this Obviously all important and nothing is more crucial for
the Communist Party's
ORG
mandate than you know the the social contracts of of economic uplift and jobs being created for everybody so when you have this bracket of young people that post long term structural challenges for the economy
Post
ORG
the risk of long term damage to their earnings and potential. It's not help but the fact there's a recommended amount of graduates coming on on the recruitment scene
this year
DATE
. So, it certainly is a bit of a crunch. Now,
China
GPE
is not an outlier in use on employment. Use unemployment globally because of the pandemic. It's still higher than where it was before the pandemic. That's according Certainly mission critical for the party is creating jobs. They've said so publicly timed again
this year
DATE
and eh I wouldn't be surprised. We do see more of a focus now on job creation schemes for that
16 to 24
CARDINAL
bracket in
the months ahead
DATE
. And I wanna go back to it. Park the data from
this morning
TIME
. Park the central bank response go back to
Friday
DATE
Aggregate finance thing out of
China
GPE
and is this a liquidity trap? And how on earth do they confront it? Well, that's what all the conversation is, John. I mean, it goes back to the money market. By the way, they actually took money out of the financial system
today
DATE
. That was lost in all the news. That speaks to how the idea that there's so much money filling around in there. That that's not where the problem is. The problems are more either when I more structure linked to this COVID oh policy How did they back out of the corner down there now in of course longer term structure around the real estate story where are they on the dealeraging debate are they willing to tolerate more debt are they willing to tolerate more risky there are highways or anyone available there and then the bigger picture question about well you know what happened the whole con Transition to consumer driven economy but consumers clearly are nowhere to be seen in this recovery. So, a lot of people are saying there is now a risk of liquidity trap. We're seeing that in terms of what's happening with the lack of appetite for landing or seeing that in the credit data and that's why a lot of a comma
Second half of this year
DATE
is going to be pretty bumpy unless there is a kind of a policy pivot a really major pivot by the authorities but so far we're not getting those
There is a kind of a policy pivot a pretty major pivot by the authorities but so far we're not getting those signals and awesome as always great coverage from you and the team on a very complex situation in the world Not just the economy there and the current there at
Hong Kong
GPE
. It take care the credit takes her out of
China
GPE
. That's the bright flash in light for me that's the most important sign that we've seen. Not good. Real estate up and down there has been Well over
a decade
DATE
John
PERSON
I really emphasize that the the outlets of people have for investment within
China
GPE
set around
two
CARDINAL
things real estate and more real estate so that sort of how they got to this mass and you know we play up the abandoned cities the And skyscrapers but the fact is it's a mess. It doesn't obscure the fact that they have a medical plan if you will. A medical strategy that clearly hasn't worked. I mean, how alone are they in their COVID policy now? Even And he's trying to open up. Away from COVID oh though
Tom
PERSON
we call this the prospect of a banner cheap recession. Wouldn't we Hey Their answer is they're gonna grow their way out of it if they COVID. I mean, they're playbook is always been employed people through exports. That's
30 years
DATE
of discussion. Lexi, you'll take on this? Well, they wanted to transform away from that. They wanted to create a marketing economy and this has Problem is how do you do that when you've curtailed that growth and you're not necessarily seeing a smooth run there especially with the overhang of the mortgage Under Commodities difficult
today
DATE
we're down by almost five% on WTI
87
CARDINAL
handle Coming up shortly
Lisa Hornby
PERSON
of Schroeders looking forward to that conversation on rates on credit on bonds just around the corner with equities down to
six tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
on the S and P on the Nasdaq without four tenths of
one%
ORG
from
New York
GPE
this Monday morning good morning
DATE
to you I think we need to think differently about, you know, being enough. I think, you know, in in number of different respects, I think, you know, we're trying to either prove ourselves or do too much. I think we have to realize that, you know, as black people despite what society says about us, despite, you know, what happens. We are enough I think the pandemic really highlighted the importance of financial literacy. And and that you know it's so important to understand okay like how do we budget? How do we plan for you know unforeseen circumstances and and it really make sure that we're prepared for these events in the future. And through Financial literacy in all forms budgeting retirement investing
Etcetera
ORG
. To to do this. I think it's honestly impact that we've already seen. It's something that we just wanna keep going because we've seen students come in, learn everything that we teach them, and get really successful jobs on Wall St, will he change their trajectory, their career path, and so if we can keep doing that for
the next 100 years
DATE
, that's something that's satisfying for me.
Satisfying for me. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance. We are seeing digital currencies under some pressure. All things crypto. I wanna have some of my money outside of the soccer. It all comes down to the details here. The last bitcoin is mine.
Ken Griffin
PERSON
is moving both sit it out and send it all security is to
Miami
GPE
this group was broken by
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Amanda Access
PERSON
the financial world on demand Hear from leading economists Policy makers And industry experts via live and on demand webinars. Only from
Bloomberg
ORG
. Start exploring to see what's moving the markets. Visit
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com webinars I think the market is reacting to the positive sign that we've probably seen the peak and inflation we finally seen inflation roll over. Markets need to be vigilant. Really just to return to kind of economic volatility that used to be the norm Thank you for being with us on radio and television on a
Monday
DATE
we we calibrate Out of
China
GPE
so I'm downside surprise after downsize surprise and a central bank response of right cut of what
10
CARDINAL
basis points bottom line stop credit data in
China
GPE
not great we saw that going into
the weekend
DATE
what can they do about it and In front of a liquidity trap right now. John a call of the year with a world trade organization calling for sub three% global growth. You gotta believe in
August
DATE
. We're We could growth but directionally things have improved in
the last couple of weeks
DATE
and a monster upside surprise on payrolls with a downside surprise on CPI you put it together
Tom
PERSON
we said it early this morning good news for this market Was good news. We've had quite a run.
4 weeks
DATE
of gains.
Tom
PERSON
on the SMP 500 the next 32 down to
21
CARDINAL
is well the makeup of the earnings reports have been quite good. John I really like what
Julian Emmanuel's
PERSON
done over at
Ever Court ISI Tickets
ORG
with
90%
PERCENT
plus of the earnings in I'm sorry it's been a surprise what a shock
Tom
PERSON
the work from the race team the
Fed
ORG
watchers over ever
Lisa
PERSON
can speak to this
Tom
PERSON
it's a tug of war right now Over
the last few months
DATE
and it's not just equities as credit too. Credit spreads are aggressively tighter of what's going on.
Bloomberg
PERSON
financial conditions index going from
one
CARDINAL
standard deviation grim into a much better negative. 20 and you see that in
IG
ORG
and in high yield as well right it's easy yes Seeing that across the board there's been an aggressive rally to John's point at how much do you say this is full hearty and that this is a bear market rally how much do you say there are fundamental fundamental reasons for this in addition to the better than expected or the weaker than expected inflation data just simply throw off that we've seen Commodities how much pressure does that take off some of the gains and really I just keep going back to that you ask
Tom
PERSON
earlier
Yeah. Off. Yes. Why aren't stocks down more on some of this
Chinese
NORP
data? Well, at what point is it that it reduces demand from the commodity complex which alleviates some of the tension for
US
GPE
companies? Check by saying
104%
PERCENT
of our listeners and viewers think oil west texas $
88
MONEY
a barrel brand crude $
93
MONEY
a barrel I'm sorry exactly why is that a bad thing I'd also know this morning
John Chicago Copper
PERSON
56
CARDINAL
down three%. On
Bren
PERSON
and I'd say
Tom
PERSON
it's a bad thing to be driven by wicked demand and not great a supply And I think we can make that read across
today
DATE
of what's happened with
China
GPE
yield to lower by a couple of basis points to
81 31
DATE
at such a good thing for
this White House
ORG
he wants to see this carry on and some gas prices keep going down you're
a dollar
MONEY
102 let's call it
102
CARDINAL
Off the back of
summer
DATE
there's some features
Tom
PERSON
yes softer but with both of you it's not a major move we don't six tenths on the SMP and the nice that we done
a half
CARDINAL
a one%
Lisa Hornby
PERSON
joins us out of
US
GPE
multisector fixed Buried in your note the value is there for
a decade
DATE
in
Bill
PERSON
's notes and bonds the values extraordinary discuss that why is price cheap in fixed income? Well it's been fair we wrote that note
about 4 or 5 weeks ago
DATE
Hey Over the longer term there is much better value than there has been certainly anytime in
the past decade
DATE
and in fact if you look back even going back
20 years
DATE
we're at the sort of top
25
CARDINAL
five%.
Tyler
PERSON
so and so you know in our view the
first
ORDINAL
six 7 months We now set the landscape for much better returns. We actually have income in fixed income now for the
Time
ORG
in a while. We couldn't make that case
a year ago
DATE
. Lisa spreads of
Thailand
GPE
aggressively. You've seen that we've gone from close to
600
CARDINAL
basis points on high yield to threatening to break
400
CARDINAL
.
Lisa
PERSON
can you help me understand just That rally for us. Where that strength does come from? Is that an up in quality trade? Is it everything? What's happened here? I think it's a I think it's a few things. I think the main one for us actually Is that people have a bit more certainty in the rates volatility And what I mean by that is
345
CARDINAL
,
six%
GPE
. Lots of expectations out there or lots of various scenarios and that led to extraordinary high rates volatility and I would of course subsequent impact on credit spreads and equity markets because if you can't price the risk-free rate, how can you Everything else. And that they think that they're getting early close to you know perhaps It's a neutral rate at you know over long term but I think people got comfort in the fact that the terminal rate is probably not
five
CARDINAL
or
six%
ORG
it's probably
three
CARDINAL
or four% We have it pivoted. No pivots going on here. And basically we're expecting
that day
DATE
. Hear that in a minutes. Is that going to reverse some of the spread tightening that we've seen? Narrative shifted a bit and that lower vow regime is positive for risk assets and especially it's more positive when sentiment had gone so far offside to me we looked at that we look at that credit
Paddock
GPE
. Euphoria decks. It was negative five panic for for you know months almost. Now it's back actually in positive territory. So there was a massive swing in in sentiment. I think that coupled with that perception Became a bit more perhaps stubbish led to the rally that we've seen to your point
Lisa
PERSON
and our view this is a feed I don't think that the I don't think the outcome that the market is painted which is one if you you know you look at what's priced in that yield curve is invert that's points to a recession
I don't think that the I don't think the outcome that the market is painted which is one if you you know you look at what's priced in that yield curve is invert that's points to a recession You look at what's priced into fed funds rates it's it's basically the the
Fed
ORG
stops in
February
DATE
or
March
DATE
hiking and they basically do an out about face and start cutting rights in in in the summertime I think that's a that's a fairly unlikely scenario unless there's a really big downturn which there could be but then should risk us at speed price the way that they are
today
DATE
.
Lisa
PERSON
, are bond As well as the
fed
ORG
all just trading and operating around an oil market that's in flux. I think oil is
one
CARDINAL
part of it. Certainly, that's, you know, that's gonna lead to the headline, inflation, sort of girations, and you know, I'll came off and then so we saw a big a big
Drop
ORG
down and in CPI headlines Is more important. And and that's really where the story is and to us, that's a bit more concerning. You know, yes, there was maybe a little bit of moderation, but the sticky components of core inflation are still running north of
five
CARDINAL
Five,
six%
GPE
. And so, to us, that's the, that's the real challenge. Yes, oil, we'll have puts and takes that will drive headline but you gotta get cornflaked down to more reasonable levels and I think that's what the fetus focused on
Lisa
PERSON
just listened to that final comment there that just sounds like you think this debate over terminal rate is unresolved. There's too early to get ahead of this story. I think it's too early to be discounting fed cuts certainly I think it's too early to be discounting the
Fed
ORG
has has pivoted. I think that's that's not not done yet. You know, I do think that they they probably moderate their pace in
September
DATE
to
50
CARDINAL
. Probably you know they could do
a couple 50s
DATE
. They could do a couple of
twenty
CARDINAL
-fives. I don't think the
five
CARDINAL
or
six%
NORP
story is is the one that you know people were fearful of at the very front of the eye I don't think we're getting there but I think the market is pricing at this very Specific outcome where we head into a very moderate or mild recession the
fed
ORG
is able to stop hiking and then start cutting and that just seems un Historically, they don't cut when inflation is at elevated levels. Unless growth is really, really bad, employment is much higher, unemployment, excuse me, as much higher than where we are
today
DATE
. So, you know, I think the market's is is getting a little too excited right now to be to be completely. You know, I've always called that
Lisa Bedtime
PERSON
story to help equity market balls sleep well at
night
TIME
. And that's what that is right now.
Lisa Horn
PERSON
be there. Ostroders
Lisa Robitts
PERSON
is just this really cute story about how this is all gonna play out. Don't you make it a great piece on this. Going into
the weekend
DATE
. If you get inflation to moderate you allow terminal pricing to come down. Maybe that's what we've seen. But I don't think you could equate peak gear over There's a lot of things that we still need to resolve here. One is whether inflation is gonna remain really sticky into your end or not. And that's gonna reintroduce this debate about whether we have really Couple of weeks. Which we did not see decline as much and rents and some of the wage increases that we continue to see which should be all other things being equally good thing but in this case Seems to be the takeaway for many people.
Tom Futures
PERSON
are down. Dollar stronger. What are you seeing in
FX
ORG
? What I'm seeing across here is a search for joy. As you mentioned, John, we had job joy We had CPI joy and I think to reaffirm what we've seen before. We gotta find the next economic joy. Maybe that awaits in the retail sales report. What I really see is a real sense of risk out there witnessed by
Euroswissy
PERSON
Has just legged stronger
095
CARDINAL
. We're not there yet. But we're getting there rapidly. I can't decide whether that's depressing or not,
Tom
PERSON
. Let's search for joy. Rejoice. Like someone who hasn't taken enough vacation to us. We can arrange it So
American
NORP
of you. And
Lisa
PERSON
We can arrange No. And
Lisa Brandon Hurt
PERSON
on radio sitting on TV this is It's Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word news I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
another
US
GPE
congressional delegation this one led by
Democratic Visiting Taiwan China
ORG
says it is fighting back by adding more military patrols around the island the congressional trip comes less in
2 weeks
DATE
after the
one
CARDINAL
by house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
which led to unprecedented
Chinese
NORP
military exercises now in
China
GPE
the Unexpectedly cut its key interest rates that
people's bank of China's
ORG
ramping up support for an economy that has been hurt by COVID lockdowns and a deepening property downturn new data shows that home prices fell again in
July
DATE
. Meanwhile, industrial output and retail sales work we could then expected members of
Congress Putting
ORG
pressure on the
US
GPE
government to tell them what was in classified documents seized at the former President
Donald Trump
PERSON
's home
senate intelligence committee
ORG
leaders have made a bipartisan request to
the Justice Department
ORG
and the Of national intelligence. They asked for an assessment of potential risk caused by the documents mishandling.
Iran
GPE
is promising to respond to a draft text to revive the
2015
DATE
nuclear court by
tonight
TIME
.
Iran
GPE
's foreign minister says if the
US
GPE
shows a realistic approach there could be an agreement in the next Global markets is a giant shift for
Wells Fargo
ORG
the bank that wants turned out
one
CARDINAL
in every
three
CARDINAL
home loans in the
US
GPE
now plans to shrink its fast mortgage empire
Bloomberg
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has learnt
Wells Fargo
ORG
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DATE
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I'm going to name a couple of of your babies. I don't know if I'm asking you to choose amongst your children but you know, some of the most recognizable buildings by you, of course, the
millennium
DATE
bridge,
London City Hall
GPE
, the right stag, and the great court
British
NORP
museum, what was your favorite project The right stage does stand out because
first
ORDINAL
of all it's an energy manifesto so Neutral and there's a public building. Symbol of a nation
Eight
CARDINAL
. It's recycling an existing building which has
Sustainability
ORG
if you can You can get a new life to a building. It also Public space at the roof level.
Sustainability if you can You can get a new life to a building. It also Public space of the roof level it is the most visited parliament in the world so it puts
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. The public. Above. Of course was made possible by the politicians so it's it's a demonstration of democracy in action. We think that's the next secular shift. This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio. BSO Now is your online home for
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. Seven% in
the coming months
DATE
. Do you see that coming?
Taiwan
GPE
and
China
GPE
. To come from. The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
your global business authority. Inflation numbers are released. Terminal speed. When do we get back to boring inflation?
Two
CARDINAL
to three% growth in the
Chinese
NORP
economy.
One
CARDINAL
Xi Jinping gets through the
20th
ORDINAL
party
congress
ORG
.
This October, November
DATE
, will there be a course correction on the economy or not? And that'll depend largely on who gets appointed as premier as headed to the economic team
Bam Risco
PERSON
. Hey Prime minister of
Australia
GPE
. I was listening to
Bramo
FAC
in that promo song. Bam. Briscot. Set with so much hate within a just despise in the milk. Down a
half
CARDINAL
or
one%
ORG
I'll let it go and that's that
100
CARDINAL
down a
34%
PERCENT
I won't although I've been terrible in those promos too over
the last few months
DATE
he owed down
two
CARDINAL
basis points
280
CARDINAL
on a
10 year
DATE
bit defensive out there they try to
China
GPE
ugly we've got crew down by more than five% Tom 87 on
WCI John
ORG
, let's go into this right now. It's important. The bit defensive part, John I would suggest as in commodities. They just evaway through the
morning
TIME
. Down
about two and a half percent
CARDINAL
this morning
TIME
too. Maybe a bit idiosyncratic Say the least. This is well timed. The lane come out joins us right now. Senior fellow
Brookings
NORP
definitive on presidential history in the
Cadence
GPE
across decades. Elaine, I wanna go to your glorious colleague,
Juan William Galston
PERSON
over
Brookings
ORG
who is written a timely piece of You are expert on
Exhausted America
LOC
whatever our politics are we ready finally for a
third
ORDINAL
party. Dear colleague
Bill
PERSON
post an interesting question but I think he also answered that question which is we are not ready for
a third party third party
DATE
so don't succeed in
American
NORP
politics because of the basic structure of
American
NORP
politics we have winner take all systems so getting picking up a couple Here or there coming
Because of the basic structure of
American
NORP
politics we have winner take all systems so getting picking up a couple seats here or there coming in
second
ORDINAL
coming in
third
ORDINAL
as you would in a parliamentary system Get you nothing And so the real effect of
third
ORDINAL
party's historically has been simply to detract from
one
CARDINAL
party or the other and historically
third
ORDINAL
party movements have then been incorporated into major parties that's that's it it won't work they
Password
FAC
. It won't work now. You are expert at the sprawl of our history. I mean, folks, this is someone who could tell you what actually happened in
the 4 years
DATE
before
Grover Cleveland's
PERSON
effort. I mean, to to be direct Elaine, has it ever been Divisive in the country or do we all need to read up on alien sedition in
18 oh two
DATE
? Well remember we had a civil war. You don't get much more divisive than a civil okay. Yeah, I mean, so, yes, we are in a period of extraordinary divisiveness. It even has aspects of violence around it which is frightening but we have been through these periods before and survived and hopefully, we're not headed to a civil war. Elaine, you have
three
CARDINAL
different Right now that are really dominating the headlines heading into midterm elections. You have on one hand. Gas prices going below $
four
MONEY
and just a general inflationary environment that does seem to be cooling just a tad. At least for certain And then you have the latest bombshells around
Trump
ORG
and some of the papers that were confiscated from Mar a
Lago
LOC
More significantly the midterm elections. The most important thing I think I'm watching is the abortion Intensity of the people who are appalled by
the supreme court
ORG
abortion decision. We saw an early indication of that in
Kansas
GPE
where on a referendum there was presidential level turnout and a
20
CARDINAL
point a
20
CARDINAL
point victory for the pro-choice side. I think There's a lot of pent up anger about this and I think we're gonna see it as these midterms roll out. The the economy was already baked in. In other words, if you were Republic You thought this economy was terrible. Didn't think it was
Joe Biden's
PERSON
fault. So, that was that was already baked in and of course, the
Trump
ORG
supporters, they love
Donald Trump
PERSON
no matter what he does. You know, taking state secrets home and jeopardizing security, they'll make an excuse for it. So, those other Things were baked in. The new factor is the abortion decision. I think it's gonna have a lot more energy lead a lot more energy with the
Democrats
NORP
. Then we ever thought. So get
Elena
PERSON
that forward going to the midterm elections how do you think that's gonna shape the outcome in a way that perhaps is unexpected? I think it'll help the
Democrats
NORP
keep the
senate
ORG
. I think that's the big, I think that's the big take away. The combination of the abortion decision and the
Republican
NORP
choice of some less than great candidates. Send the
two
CARDINAL
I'm thinking of In
Pennsylvania
GPE
and
Herschel Walker
PERSON
in
Georgia
GPE
. I mean, the
Republican
NORP
had better choices than they ended up with. Thank you,
Donald Trump
PERSON
. So I think that the combination of the energy around abortion and some poor choices probably votes well for
Democrats
NORP
keeping the
senate
ORG
. The I think the
Democrats
NORP
would still lose but i don't think it's gonna be a tsunami. I don't think it's gonna be a
63
CARDINAL
vote margin in the house. I think it'll be a much narrower margin than people are expecting. Thank you. Appreciate your perspective. As always the land came out there of
Brookings
LOC
. So I'm certainly supposed to pick out
one
CARDINAL
point right now. It would be in the commodity market not just recruit lower
today
DATE
but just gas prices coming down the way they have I think we could say that. So without a doubt. I agree. I mean, I really, Gotta be careful here John because while you were gone and your 1 day holiday that turned into
a week
DATE
I mean I gotta be honest John the level of gloom
I really I I gotta be careful here John because while you were gone and your 1 day holiday that turned into
a week
DATE
I mean I gotta be honest John the level of gloom I'd never seen it was
World
LOC
coming to an end and all that. Boom. Up we go. There was tension. Hey No. The thing of the weekend This for the
American
NORP
audience. Here's this vulnerable firm which we know through
Jim Lord O'Neill
PERSON
. Okay, great I've never seen the essays on manu and they're collapse like I've seen
this week
DATE
. What's happened? The ownership of the club But I don't think you should just be on the ownership of the club those players
Tom
PERSON
are not performing at all and they've got a really tough game
next week
DATE
against
Liverpool
GPE
and that could be
three
CARDINAL
losses
Three
CARDINAL
losses among enough seriously to the
Yankees
ORG
being in last place. I mean that big deal. The
Cowboys
ORG
is the same thing as a massive franchise and they just haven't been able to get any success whatsoever but the glaze That's where the focus is. They have not had the success of Man United that people wanted to see the company we can call it a company because this one has been loaded up with depth. They've spent a lot of money on players and those players haven't delivered. I'm so dumb as man you
Liverpool
GPE
next Monday
DATE
is out of
Darby
GPE
.
Darby
PERSON
in the sense that they're not from the same city. Is that work? Okay. I don't think that worked. Anyway, futures are down. The difference between political gossip Policy intelligence. Analysis. Affairs. Edge and reaching policy makers on the hill.
Bloomberg
PERSON
government Record setting temperatures deadly forest fires receding rivers. In this episode of
Bloomberg Green
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, we're focusing on extreme weather. We'll explore the science behind the recent heat wave. More extreme than it is now. I pray that's inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills and until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. And solutions for the planet to mitigate and adapt. We need government to lead on this and we need government to
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ORG
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from
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GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
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DATE
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PERSON
This
week
DATE
's edition of
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PERSON
airing
this weekend
DATE
on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
quick take ant That is a great question. Great question. A little bit of economics are in
America
GPE
just around the corner To get you up to speed on that. Good morning to you. Your future's unnegitive. We're down
a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
on a SMP on the nice that
100
CARDINAL
. We down
a third
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. And that isn't ugly ugly number. Might be key. Walk us through it. Yeah we don't normally give the empire index a lot of airtime but
today
DATE
empire has absolutely collapsed for
the month of August
DATE
. This is the
first
ORDINAL
major manufacturing indicator. It comes During the month and it's down
31
CARDINAL
.
Three
CARDINAL
points down to
31
CARDINAL
.
Three
CARDINAL
I'm sorry that's a collapse of
42
CARDINAL
points it fell the the numbers show that only Of responding syndicated conditions had improved during the month
44%
PERCENT
say things worsen new orders fell
36
CARDINAL
points to
29
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
shipments fell
49
CARDINAL
points to
24
CARDINAL
.
One
CARDINAL
Even employment fell
10
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
it's still positive at
seven
CARDINAL
.
Four
CARDINAL
but that's a very low number the only relatively good news price is paid falling
eight
CARDINAL
.
Eight
CARDINAL
points to
55
CARDINAL
.
Five
CARDINAL
but this is the
second
ORDINAL
largest drop in the Empire Index in it's history only behind what happened right when the pandemic broke out in
April of 20
DATE
. So, a major fall in the numbers for the empire index kind of a
tertiary
ORDINAL
index but it is a very interesting drop. Well, the bond market heard you
Mike
PERSON
. You want to lower
Five
CARDINAL
basis points on
a 10 year
DATE
to
278
CARDINAL
equities are doing okay still basically where they were but down
a half
CARDINAL
of one% on the SMP but certainly a reaction in the bond market to some of this commodities already lower off the back of the terrible data in
Mike
PERSON
the regional
fed
ORG
manufacturing readings have been pretty rough for a time now for
the last couple of months
DATE
Mike
PERSON
how does that stack up with the other data points did I send the PMIs wow it's interesting because the the PM Have been down we've seen that but the
ISM
ORG
numbers have remained in positive territory and there hasn't been a great explanation for it at this point but it does suggest manufacturing Is slowing down even the
ISM
ORG
numbers have come down some but the economy still has some residual strength we get
Philly
PERSON
fed later in the week and I'm sure that will garner a lot of interest after this one now
Mike
PERSON
how much is this being perhaps a little bit distorted by the inventory bill that we've heard so much about the fact that a lot of companies and manufactured factor And retailers have needed to hold on to more to avoid the kind of disruptions that we saw immediately after the pandemic started. Well, it may have something It's a little hard and necessarily put it on the auto end on the inventories in the sense that
New York
GPE
is not a big manufacturing center for garments and things like that. So, it isn't it isn't the centerpiece of what's been
Down
PERSON
about four
CARDINAL
basis points on Yeah let's call it
320
CARDINAL
on a
10 year
DATE
we're down
about five
CARDINAL
basis points the
278
CARDINAL
equities okay we're down
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
but TK that data
Weekday
GPE
This morning
TIME
. Retail data that we're gonna see later
Okay we're down
about a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
petite that day Hey Facebook Hey Even more important to retail data that we're gonna see later on
70%
PERCENT
of of the economy my keynote there John is a tertiary piece but nevertheless the magnitude that move is jaw dropping right now we're gonna rip up the script we can do this with
William
PERSON
We're gonna talk to him about the empire statistics but said let's take advantage of his encyclopedic knowledge of
the Pacific Rim
LOC
and the Of China. Of course Doctor
Lee
PERSON
has all the efforts he's done at
the International Monetary Fund
ORG
over
the years
DATE
and city group and of course how's the shingle out? Shingle out at the milk and instit Right now.
Billy
PERSON
, I wanna go to the party
congress
ORG
right now. Elizabeth economy or the council form relations in her beautiful book, The World according to
China
GPE
has the view of
China
GPE
looking out. How does
Beijing
GPE
and their leader in
Beijing
GPE
how does he look within giving the grim Of
the day
DATE
. Become the primary focus for
China
GPE
and the source of growth going forward. Unfortunately, so much is collapse within
China
GPE
that the domestic economy is nowhere to be found especially in the private sector And even that's collapse because the latest data show the export numbers are are are nowhere to be found so
China
GPE
really has nothing to hang on Going into the party
congress
ORG
She billy prosecute How does
Beijing
GPE
actually get the message out? You know, right now, there's attention between the the the center of the central government and the municipal governments. Because right now, the only place for revival is to have municipal governments go in there and do infrastructure building and just start pumping out physical policy. Unfortunately, every municipality out there is so indebted. They can't do it.
Congress
ORG
in
October
DATE
is to have some prayer of saying we will have a revival at the second half of the year these numbers
today
DATE
have put that to rest and there's no chance for that on top of that Speaker
Pelosi
PERSON
has slapped him in the face and the loss of face going into the party
congress
ORG
is gonna be something that's gonna be very hard for him to recover from.
Bill
PERSON
we get to time one in the moment just on the economy. Are you describing abandoned cheap recession in
China
GPE
? For sure in the private sector because the only source of saving for the households has been real estate and very volatile stock market and so with the collapse of the real estate market and the the huge youth unemployment it's very hard for households to have a positive outlook for the future and start buying things like consum Is very much
China
GPE
. Doesn't it? And it feels a case. I'm just trying to work out where that leaves the global economy off the back of these dynamics starting to bubble to the surface. Just a little bit more. The only place monitor policy can have a play here would be a regular policy to somehow ignore all of the Your bad dead That's the only place So what are we looking at
Bill
PERSON
in terms of GDP growth for
China
GPE
? I hear
two
CARDINAL
handles going into the rest of the year and so in order for for trying to get to his
five and a half percent
DATE
target it has to have
seven
CARDINAL
and eight% for the rest of
the year
DATE
and right now it looks exactly going the opposite direction Has the rest of the world economy factored that in. The likelihood in your idea that you could see a
two
CARDINAL
hand off for
Chinese
NORP
GDP growth. I I think that notion has gotten out especially among my my friends who are a
China
GPE
chief economist out there. They can't publish it because they take the band from
China
GPE
. But I I think the notion is
Especially among my my friends who are a
China
GPE
chief economist out there. They can't publish it because they'd be banned from
China
GPE
. But I I think the notion is among the among the investors of the world. Well, this may be temporary in the
China
GPE
would somehow recover because
Always
ORG
has. But the structure problems I just pointed out are just so severe. I think there's gonna be a lot more work to be done for
China
GPE
to to regain anywhere near as investor status. What about the asset Severely disappointed. Biggest
second
ORDINAL
biggest drop in this history of this index. The
second
ORDINAL
biggest just all in level that we have ever seen in this index is history. How much have we looking at a global recession really pitting off the slow down in
China
GPE
? Well manufacturing is really at the core of the globalization. That's the
one
CARDINAL
secret that's most affected by globalization and and
China
GPE
in particular because it's been the next system manufacturing. So we would expect any kind of slowdown in
China
GPE
that affects the global supply chain to kill the manufacturing sector before anything else and we are seeing that in the data now. So that's not so surpris What is gonna be difficult would be how the rest of the economy global economy will adapt its global supply chains in a way that it takes
China
GPE
out of the picture or at least become less important part of the picture. Well, you said something moments I'll paraphrase that certain people can't publish things because they'll be thrown out the country and I built there's another amount of truth in that in the mighty people and I wonder if these things start to deteriorate just a little bit more
Bill
PERSON
where I look for reliable data on Whats actually happening in that economy Well I I hate to say this but my supply myself colleagues are are kind of constrained. I'm lucky to be at
Milton
PERSON
where I'm not constrained to see what I think and I think it's gonna be very difficult to find The hard intelligence about
China
GPE
outside of private sources. That's tough.
Bill
PERSON
, thank you.
Bill Lee
PERSON
, the milk and institute, TK, that's what we've gotta confront. These diamond dynamics, these issues that we're talking about right now,
Tom
PERSON
, are things that we typically Which is what
Bill
PERSON
's talking about in the
Chinese
NORP
economy. It's more than just an
econom Analysis
ORG
. We're at the unique time. I I don't any ability to predict it. Other than to say, I can see the
three
CARDINAL
of us travelling. Oh, can you To cover the party
congress
ORG
. Are we gonna be able to talk about what's happening in that economy? Do you hear what
Bill Lee
PERSON
just said there? But he doesn't expect to get the real insight from his south side colleagues. No, that that's been known for
years
DATE
. Sure. Kiss that we can find some real issues in that economy I I think that Doctor
Lee
PERSON
is speaking the reality that is unspoken by anyone on global Wall St that's experienced
John Only
PERSON
experienced it numerous times in
China
GPE
. There's a larger question here though. Which is our economists that are looking at the
US
GPE
manufacturing that are used looking at the
US
GPE
factories, the
US
GPE
retailers, factoring in a
two
CARDINAL
point something GDP for
China
GPE
. How do you then factor that in and if that's the case, our oil Assets are not yet because of the slow down and demand and that I think is a bigger sort of question for markets. Where we saw the response was in the bond market yield down heading south lower negative
four
CARDINAL
basis points on
a 10 year
DATE
to
about 278
CARDINAL
let's call it
279
CARDINAL
and lower at the front end it occurred as Looking forward to getting the seat back from
Bramo
FAC
.
Lisa
PERSON
hey Facebook I'm gonna take it away from me. Alright. Do you want it? You can have it. Cross mark's gonna join us. Management at Jill Kerry Hall of
Bank of America
ORG
. Looking forward to doing that. Maybe just injecting a little bit of optimism after I don't know what happened
last week
DATE
.
Lisa
PERSON
In the conversation
last week
DATE
. As we count you down to the open account. Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word news I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
Keeping you up to date with news from around the world with the
first
ORDINAL
word news I'm
Leanne Gerens
PERSON
China
GPE
has added military patrols around
Taiwan
GPE
after another
US
GPE
congressional delegation visited baiting said it was fighting back against the trip led by democratic
Canada
GPE
Ed Markey the visit comes less in
2 weeks
DATE
after the
one
CARDINAL
by the house speaking
Nancy Pelosi
PERSON
that set off an unprecedented wave of
Chinese
NORP
military drills around
Taiwan
GPE
Russia
GPE
's president
Vladimir Putin
PERSON
is offering to expand relations with
North Korea
GPE
food and send a message Congratulations to
Kim John Uns
PERSON
regime for it's liberation day holiday
North Korea
GPE
has been stopped piling artillery for
decades
DATE
that has led some analysts to speculate that it could supply weapons for
Russia
GPE
's war in
Ukraine
GPE
the
UK
GPE
has grant The world's
first
ORDINAL
approval for a COVID vaccine tailored towards an
Madona
PRODUCT
's updated booster contains a half days of its original shot and the other
half
CARDINAL
targeting an earlier version of the
Omicon
GPE
variant Companies has a vaccine has also been found to generate a good response against the latest subvarians. Savior Ramco has posted the biggest
quarterly
DATE
profit of any listed company around
Co
ORG
followed other big oil rivals reporting a surgeon earnings due to high crude prices net
One 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in
the second quarter
DATE
almost double what it was
a year earlier
DATE
global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalists and analysts in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries I'm
Leanne Garrens
PERSON
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
Just didn't digital currencies but not sure where to start So is there more pressure when you're trying to win a basketball championship Then when you're trying to please investors where's the greater pressure? I think it's definitely trying to win a championship. It's hard because a lot of like when you invest and you know this when you're investing You can control a lot more things It on a basketball court you can't control whether somebody's gonna make a shot you've gotta get lucky and what's the greater pleasure making
five
CARDINAL
times your money on a distressed debt investment or winning the
NBA
ORG
championship They're both fabulous I I wish I could do
one
CARDINAL
each year that would be great but I think there's a great feeling in being right on an investment that You've done a tremendous amount of work and you've made money for your clients which I think is great I think winning a championship It's a very surreal feeling because there's a whole city or state that is actually behind you You know, we had
70 1000
CARDINAL
people at the finals and we had them all outside. It's
17 1000
CARDINAL
in stands. And then literally like
60 1000
CARDINAL
people outside And when we won like just the joy that you had brought to the city was phenomenal. So, what is the best investment advice anybody's ever given you? You don't need.
So, what is the best investment advice anybody's ever given you? You don't need to have a good idea
every day
DATE
. So, there is times to be patient and there's time to press. What do you think is the most common mistake that investors make? The average investor. I think it's fomo. So, buy high, sell low. You know when the and the amount of damage that does the average investor Is is What would you say that person should do with
100 1000
CARDINAL
to put an index fund or something else like that? Yeah, I mean, I think for the average investor Buying an index but buying and holding and just letting it compound is really Of all advice. I think Tries to do the more damage they tend to do. In a
seven 1 trillion dollars
MONEY
industry there's a lot of ground to cover. Prepare for an economic hurricane. What I think the market wants to see here is it wants to see
two
CARDINAL
things. It it wants to see the inflation genie going back into the bottle and then that's somewhat obvious. I also think that the market wants to see some deterioration in the labor market. Back in the bottle and right now the inflation genie is back in the bottle because oil Very much oil now plunging
well under $556%
MONEY
.
West Texas
LOC
intermediate
moments ago
TIME
dipping under
80
CARDINAL
Especially after the
Chinese
NORP
data that came out overnight that we could then expect it with
Bill Lee
PERSON
of the milk and institute just coming on and saying it is very likely to see GD Road in
China
GPE
in the
two
CARDINAL
handle level very much opposed to what you're hearing from the main street from
Main St
LOC
economists. A perfect time with
Gina Martin Adams
PERSON
chief energy buy it at $
124
MONEY
a barrel analyst at
Bloomberg Intelligence
ORG
running all of our equity coverage
the last 10 days
DATE
I've been shocked by On a gloom. Interview the interview that I've read. Is sentiments still gloomy? Or if we had a bull market in equities where the gloom is drifted or? Yeah, it's so difficult to measure, frankly, because one of the things that I think Really surprised to the consensus The shears did get the degree to which the investor is willing to persistently invest flows into the equity market have been somewhat stable and significantly stronger than many people had Hey Facebook where We usually one of the indicators that you find is as the market is following the investors capitulating in flows are negative and that is a confirmation of very negative sentiment. We've missed that. This entire cycle. And the reason I think that they Actors frankly they've learned some lessons from the last several corrections In which the investor has largely taken money out of the equity market at exactly the wrong time struggled to get back in and tell the equity mark what it was already somewhat overvalued and really missed timed it so Some of this is a reflection of the education of the investor population. Factor analysis do we have factors out there that will allow a part of the market to be bully like even if the rest of it is very like is it factors that allow for example quality large cap to do better than Well, so far
this year
DATE
, the factors that have done incredibly well is value. The value stocks, the the long end of value relative to the shore and the value has performed tremendously. Quality is actually been an underperforming factor because quality is closely linked to low value, Quality stocks tend to be the most expensive stocks in the market those have performed very very
Actually been an under performing factor because quality is closely linked to low value, right? Quality stocks tend to be the most expensive stocks in the market. Those have performed very, very poorly over the course of
22
CARDINAL
reflecting a new inflation outlook and rising interest rates that said the factor that really screams is somewhat attractive to us and our factor work right now is still momentum
Momentum
ORG
stock's doing very well relative to the other factor families and low volatility also doing relatively well the combination of value and quality is very messy as we contend with this environment of peaking inflation and still rising interest rates The reason why Gina
Martin Adam
PERSON
so many people are just looking at the
fed
ORG
and saying it all depends on what's gonna happen with interest rates and that the rally that you've seen a big tech which is really driven the gains that we have seen is off the heels of this ratchet back expectation for how high yields can go how much can we really attribute To the rally versus what
Thomas
PERSON
talking about which is faith in the ability to continue to grow profits at a time where they've been incredibly resilient. It's entirely due to interest rates. Frankly,
Lisa
PERSON
, because this group, even though profits are somewhat resilient, long-term. This is a group that is showing the greatest negative estimate revision in the S and P 500. So, when we look at the
Communication
ORG
focused as opposed to the apples and
Microsoft
ORG
of the world those stocks are producing the greatest naked investment revision in the S and P 500 at the same time they're reinflating So that would tell you that the entirety of the market sort of movement in favor of these groups specifically is related to the outlook for interest rates and some pullback and expectations or at least Pricing of expectations for the
fed
ORG
. Now, keep in mind that when we looked at this in back in
June
DATE
, these stocks were inordinately cheap, To their long-term average. They're now somewhat expensive trading at
about a 20
CARDINAL
handle on forward earnings, relative to their pre-pandemic
five-year
DATE
average at
17 and a half
DATE
. So, this is a group that is now Expensive.
Fed
ORG
does move to the degree that the market is anticipating we would expect this group to try closer to
15
CARDINAL
maybe
16
CARDINAL
times forward earnings on a on a Longer term basis. That's a far cry from where we are
today
DATE
. So, I think this is still a group that exhibits some degree of risk and probably create some downside pressure in the short run as we rotate to more sustainable What's the next pivot point then for equity traders that are looking to the fed? Look I think the next pivot point is obviously the next thread meeting That said most people are are largely anticipating somewhere
between 50 and 75
MONEY
basis points over the next meeting. The really big question marks come into play into
the end of this year
DATE
. Because there are a lot of folks Midterm election. There are a lot of folks that are counting on economic data sort of deteriorating significantly following
Labor Day
DATE
and that creates something of a pause at the
fed
ORG
by
early 2023
DATE
. Will that The
fed
ORG
themselves also appears to be getting a little bit frustrated with the degree to which the market has traded Last
fed
ORG
meeting and is being very vocal and suggesting we are not going to drop the ball on this we have very strong conviction with respect to policy and and really battling the inflation genie if you will So the feathers guiding us to expect them themselves to remain very vigilant and very happy. Nobody's watching. Everybody got wrong the resilience of revenue and earning growth Qtwo yep why is Qthree any The biggest difference going into Q
three
CARDINAL
is that much of that revenue and earnings growth resilience was due to the commodity space Since we've gone through the course of
second quarter
DATE
earnings we've seen commodity prices pull back tremendously yes so there's been a lot of rotation out of the commodity trade and price capitulation and commodities
May
DATE
risk the outlook in the short run for some of those more resilient segments of the market and then we've got a lot of inflation volatility to contend with still
Getting
ORG
started on
Monday
DATE
here. Thank you. So much
Lisa
PERSON
, down $
five
MONEY
on an oil barrel, what are we gonna get? We're gonna get under $
three
MONEY
on a
gallon
CARDINAL
of gas or halfway there. Well, we're hearing from this administration that they expect to all prices You decline with gasoline following how much does that really hinge on what we saw
overnight
TIME
from
China
GPE
. Negative
221
CARDINAL
.
Gasoline following how much does that really hinge on what we saw
overnight
TIME
from
China
GPE
. Negative 221 in the mix
21
CARDINAL
.
One
CARDINAL
at
four
CARDINAL
what an interesting
Monday
DATE
setting us up for retail sales On
Wednesday
DATE
, please stay with us. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Welcome back to a special western and southern open update for
Bloomberg TV
ORG
and radio from tennis channel I'm
Jimmy Maggio
PERSON
The stars of the
ATP
ORG
and WTA tours head to
Cincinnati
GPE
the final stop on the road to
New York
GPE
. Ranking through the
US
GPE
Open. But the
26 year old
DATE
could face
Jensen Brooksby
PERSON
in the
third
ORDINAL
round before potentially running into the red hot nick curios in
the quarters
DATE
.
Rafael Nadahl
PERSON
returns to the tour for the
first
ORDINAL
time since
Wimbledon
EVENT
and the
Spaniard
NORP
could deny
Medvin
PERSON
the top spot if he lifts the
Blockbuster
PERSON
first
ORDINAL
round clash between
Serena Williams
PERSON
and the reigning
US
GPE
Open champion
Emma Rodakano
PERSON
23
CARDINAL
time major winner recently announced that she'll retire from tennis after
the Major of the year
ORG
at blushing meadows. You're so intimately linked to the future of the
UK
GPE
what do you see when you go to branches and in the country Yeah we're seeing a lot of anxiety at the moment you know I think the recovery from the pandemic has been and is continuing to be very strong so I think we're seeing the economy recover but with rising interest rates with inflation those those are things You know peoples and families and businesses haven't had to deal with for
10 years
DATE
so a lot of business owners
today
DATE
haven't had to operate in that environment so is causing quite a lot of Which means you know it it for us because we're up and down the country in branches and offices we can spend a lot of time talking to businesses and helping them plan and deal with it but it is in it's very different and it's not something people have had to operate in for a long time. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance. The RC digital currencies under some pressure. All comes down to the details here. Bitcoin is mine. Access the financial world on demand Hear from leading economists.
Hear from leading economists Policy makers. And industry experts be alive and on demand webinars. Only from
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ORG
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PERSON
. Com webinars Lower the countdown to the open. Starts right now. Everything you need to get set for the start of
US
GPE
training. A lot from
New York
GPE
we begin with EPSU
50%
PERCENT
out of a bear
Kithole
PRODUCT
. Is a little optimistic. But it is starting to feel Like those june lows might hold. Then stocks are railing on that. They're not really hearing the message. There's a disconnect between some of the kind of Means we get less from the fad. The market might be getting a little ahead of itself. Anyway Does not make a trend. Still quite at risk for a hard landing. This market confronting a wallet out joining us right now is cross marks
Victoria Fernandez Aberdeen's
PERSON
James Athy
PERSON
Victoria let's go through the numbers
4 weeks
DATE
of games on the S and P
about 17%
PERCENT
Lows on the SMP 500. We take them back
50%
PERCENT
of the draw down from
the year
DATE
so far. You don't trust this rally, do you? No I really don't John I think a lot of what we've seen over
the last month
DATE
is really been due to the fact that yields have come down And if we look over
the last week
DATE
obviously that story of peak inflation has really been driving the market and and there's things We're seeing short coverings in the market if Equity market but look if we if we break down those CPI numbers and the PPI numbers really most
Decline
ORG
was due to oil and gas but Cost push inflation component from the labor market and Financial conditions are actually easier now than they were At this point in time and we think we're gonna continue to have a choppy market going forward. We don't see ourselves out of the wood Hey Cody sit down
this morning
TIME
by
seven tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
I've talked about that push back
Lisa Shallette
PERSON
over at
Morgan Stanley
ORG
saying get real
Mike Wilson
PERSON
saying this the equity market is front runner durable
fed
ORG
paws the after which are lower to begin with this leaves valuation significantly disconnected from economic earnings reality risks reward remains unattractive
James Ath Walk
PERSON
me through it. Yeah, I mean
Victoria
PERSON
's covered a lot of the reasons there and
Mike
PERSON
's
Mike
PERSON
's added the final, the final kinda nail in the coffin if you like. First thing I'd say is that what we're observing really, I think is just a monster Of a of a financial market structure which has been inherently broken for a long time and has Been not designed but has emerged in a state which is designed to profit from the the prior paradigm and designed to really be overtly sensitive to
Fed
ORG
policy and therefore things like fundamentals and actually the earnings potential of individual companies get thrown out of the window and and all we do is really care about Whether the
Fed
ORG
sounds more horky short or more davish than they did
yesterday
DATE
. And the reality Which had emerged in during the pandemic when everybody was extrapolating on sustainable trends long into the future and deciding that regardless of the future economic reality it was okay to pay any price Equities because bonjour.
Sustainable trans long into the future and deciding that regardless of the future economic reality it was okay to pay any price for equities because bonjour to a low all of that is not particularly useful analysis and I fear that when the economy has a cold shower the ectic market is gonna experience one also The bear market party with you
two this morning
TIME
. I'll just take the other side just for a moment. Payroll so great. Massive upside surprise. Downside surprise on inflation. Those
two
CARDINAL
things together. Good news is good news. Victoria I sent your push back around this idea that there are Market participants saying peak inflation that means peak fed hawkishness is that the wrong way looking at it? Yeah, I think it's the wrong way for sure. I mean, we talk about the feds looking at
that month over month
DATE
. The number. So, we have
Component
ORG
in the oil and the gas component but remember And gas prices were We said oh my goodness that's gonna hurt the consumer demand is gonna go down so if The story then as Prices come down that should actually At this point in time. So, I Over
the last week
DATE
what's Between a bear market rally and something more cheerable and someone just turned around and said hindsight we need to do better than that been
Riley
ORG
's aunt
Hogan
ORG
said this a perfect
50%
PERCENT
retracement from the peak to trough in this cycle that tends to deliberate the difference between a bear market rally and the start of a bull run and that's gonna get a lot more believers into this market take a Hey 200 next stop maybe about Continue to talk about the fundamentals as we always do. Let's talk about the fundamentals.
Five
CARDINAL
out of the
11
CARDINAL
sectors are what is leading this rally.
79%
PERCENT
of the gains are coming from these sectors alone We've talked about technology being the big winner of
more than 20%
PERCENT
off of those due lows discretionaries well so that feels rest gone financial is interesting given we've talked Continuing to be inverted and increasing sometimes in magnitude and duration but if there is Of another bullish theme it is a vex and we've talked a lot about is this still the right indicator to be looking at It is below
20
CARDINAL
. It was until
today
DATE
. We take up a little bit too about a
21
CARDINAL
but still really When you think about the bullishness and maybe the lack of fear that this index
Awesome
ORG
. We are
about 25 minutes
TIME
away. Future's a negative. Not everyone is bearish and pushing back against this rally that we've seen. I talked about
BNP
ORG
paragraph
a couple of weeks ago
DATE
. I talked about the risk of crowding it as this market climbs higher. Arguably to some degree we've seen some of that.
Chris Harvey
PERSON
of
Wells Fargo
ORG
on this program
2 weeks ago
DATE
. He said the weakness you're looking for
US
GPE
economy isn't gonna come soon. You've gotta wait until
the first half of 2023
DATE
.
James Athy
PERSON
allow me to pick up on that point from
Chris Harvey
PERSON
over at
Wells Fargo
ORG
. Do you think he's gonna be wrong? He's saying you're too early. The witness in this economy and earnings is not gonna show up until
the first half of 23
DATE
. Do you disagree? Well, yeah, I mean, you have to define that, you know, I think a lot of people see this as binary recession, yes, or no, and and you know, if we're not in recession react as if we're in a booming economy, I'm I'm gonna be a little bit more subtle than that and suggest we're on a path and the path is down and the path has been down for quite some time. It's been down from above trend. Unsustainable position given the you know unsustainable monitoring physical support which god is there and we've seen some of that froth come out but what we're seeing now is the policies is continuing to tighten with seeing certain sectors of the economy really struggling with seeing consumer incomes really hurt and in an economy which is
80%
PERCENT
consumption that's a pretty big headwind this is going to be a It's not a binary.
Using certain sectors of the economy really struggling with seeing consumer incomes really hurt and then an economy which is
80%
PERCENT
consumption that's a pretty big headwind this is going to be a process it's not a binary event but if you look at the trend in key you know data with the exception of payrolls which really is last man standing and it's a lagging indicator everything is telling you that the path is Earnings will remain under pressure because it's gonna be very difficult to protect margins when the starting point was elevated margins and of course when is very much a cost input cost shock which is which is hitting the economy today so yes I think the economy will be weaker in Q 123 than it is now but I don't think that means Gonna be strong between now and then. Their policy is tighter but financial conditions are easier what wins out here? Yeah I mean I'm I'm a seller of the idea that financial conditions really are the metric that we should be using part of the problem is that there's a circularity there and that's exactly where the
fed
ORG
has found itself trapped between their desire to communicate policy changes in advance and they're inability to forecast really the key economic metrics and the fact that markets are desperately Are hoping to be risk on forward looking you just get trapped there I think what matters realistically is that we have a heck of a lot of debt we have a huge huge huge cohort within most western populations who had very very low disposable income to begin with and are seeing that being massively eroded by this non-discretionary These are the significant headlines that you have anyway and then when you put fiscal policy from as loose as it's ever been to tightening at the margin and indeed monetary policy moving quite rapidly through the gears in a way that we haven't seen for
40 years
DATE
there's some pretty significant headwinds out there some pretty significant moves happening
Morning
TIME
. We've got the S and P down
six tenths
DATE
. No real drama considering some of the moves we've seen
this year
DATE
. But look at commodities down about five% of WTI to
87
CARDINAL
on Brent to
93
CARDINAL
on Copper down
about two
CARDINAL
.
Six%
GPE
. The data out of
China
GPE
are touched on Seems to be the narrative is switching from data point to data point. It was empire manufacturing
this morning
TIME
.
Sam Roe
PERSON
and on
Twitter
PERSON
this morning said you don't often see the word plummeted using official reports and that's the words
the New York Fed
ORG
uses The headline general business conditioned index plummet
Two
CARDINAL
points. Now,
Victoria
GPE
, can I ask you what date were you focused on? Right now, because
1 minute
TIME
the
ISM
ORG
looks decent,
the next minute
TIME
, the regional fed in the seas, the index is look terrible. That's exactly right which is why we think there's going to be so much volatility for the rest of
the year
DATE
. I know
James
PERSON
was saying he doesn't expect the market Exactly that reason. So, I mean, what do we look at And try to weigh it against each other. So, obviously, labor market is extremely important. Manufacturing is important. The consumer and the
Tremendously
PERSON
yet you know you look Earnings going into the
third
ORDINAL
and
the fourth quarter
DATE
and we're seeing earning estimates come down but yet Technical Trading above their
20 day
DATE
moving average those number But the same time you've got
weekly
DATE
jobless claims moving higher you have trouble going on in
Europe
LOC
you have the Take a broader view
Victoria James
PERSON
sticking with us features down
six tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
let's get you some movers going into the open and bound his
Abby Sticking
PERSON
with that disappointing
China
GPE
data we hear in the
US
GPE
of course woke up to the surprise rick hike cut excuse me hike cut excuse me by the PBOC of course going against the other central bank And this is weighing in a big time on the quality complexes you were talking about and also on not surprisingly energy and natural resource movers here in the
US
GPE
ex on mobile down
three
CARDINAL
. Seven% in line Or wait on by oil haliburton down four% freeport macaron
one
CARDINAL
of the big copper miners down
four
CARDINAL
. Five% and then of course
Riotinto
ORG
which is also Minor down
three
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
if we were to take a look at some of those
China
GPE
Which is also another minor down
three
CARDINAL
.
Eight%
ORG
if we were to take a look at some of those
China
GPE
tech ADRs
John
PERSON
not surprisingly we would see a big declines there too that's weighing on the tech sector here in the
US
GPE
over Are not pretty at all.
Abby
PERSON
, thank you. Coming up on this program, some ugly data out of
China
GPE
. Picture exposure to
China
GPE
very carefully we like
China Tech
ORG
for the long term and brave at heart but
China
GPE
's economy is slowing down greatly. Alexa on
China
GPE
at home and abroad on the mainland and in
Taiwan
GPE
. We'll catch up with
Mike McKee
PERSON
and AMH on the other side. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
Most of us don't spend much time thinking about the grid the dizzily huge system of cables transformers and outlets that reliably powers our lives it's an easily ignored change resistant part of the modern world and that's the Like it. As we move towards this planet melting ways of producing electricity the grid is going to have to evolve too. So many countries and governments announcing high targets when it comes to decarbonization and being climate neutral. But this is just one side of the coin. It's not enough to simply generate green energy. We also need to make sure that this transmitted and distributed to the unconsumers. The grid of
today
DATE
just isn't equipped for renewables So a new kind of grid is starting to take shape. The super grid Is it
5 PM
TIME
in
new york
GPE
and
2 PM
TIME
in
san francisco
GPE
? Cycles It's a small gesture but at least it shows that they care. Of what's to come we've had a huge amount of credit and fiscal impulse but is that enough that is really the question
China
GPE
facing challenges at home and abroad. The latest economic data revealing a deepening slowdown. This is the country ramps up. It's military action near
Taiwan
GPE
. Following another
US
GPE
visit. The
Chinese
NORP
foreign ministry Principal they are overestimated themselves they are doomed to fail team coverage starts right now with
Bloomberg Samborie
PERSON
down at
DC
GPE
my Mackey here in
New York
GPE
AMH just another visit and more tension More tension and really because this highlights the fact that this visit led by Senator
Ed Marqui
PERSON
of
Massachusetts
GPE
is just less than 2 weeks since Pelosi wet now it's not uncommon for members of
congress
ORG
to go to
Taiwan
GPE
to have these congressional visits but it is unlikely that you would see the speaker of the house Is why that has drawn a lot of condemnation from
China
GPE
and we saw these live fire drills and also sending off ballistic missiles which likely went over the island to land in
Japan
GPE
economic
From
China
GPE
and we saw these live fire drills and also sending off ballistic missiles which likely went over the island to land in
Japan
GPE
's economic exclusion zone and the fact that Trip is so close together it is just creating more tension between these
two
CARDINAL
countries and what you see now is
China
GPE
's defense military coming out with a statement that the
PLA
ORG
the people's liberation army is preparing War and there are continuing these live drills around the street. It makes we've talked about that the reaction to it is and there are many people out there join a line between the weakness in the domestic economy and this president the leader of the
Chinese
NORP
Commodistant
Xi
PERSON
doubling down attention abroad might be key that data add a
China
GPE
overnight not great and I would The data going into
the weekend
DATE
wasn't terrific either Well, nobody was expecting it to be in the sense that you shut down your economy and you're going to lose some economic activity but go back to the board that shows what happened. It's way below what even was expected. Everybody had marked down their growth figure And that they still came in worse than thought and here's the worst part for President
Xi
PERSON
youth unemployment
18 to 25 years old
DATE
is skyrocketing there and that is not You wanna have in a country that prizes social calm The the idea of President
Xi
PERSON
trying to get another term under these circumstances would ordinate most countries I would say would be difficult but right now it is something that he has to deal
The Bank of China
ORG
did cut interest rates
today
DATE
but only by
10
CARDINAL
basis points that's not expected to have a Impact on how the economy responds because the cut was so small and analysts are expecting more to come in the future. Any of the country mate we'll be talking about trouble at the polls but that doesn't happen in a dictatorship at least that's not what he has to face might be key thank you we'll catch up with you
later in the hour
TIME
on the week ahead and to you AMH as well the tension in
DC
GPE
we've gotta pick up on In
about 30 minutes
TIME
from now
Victoria
GPE
the dynamics that we look at in the
Chinese
NORP
economy as
Mike
PERSON
described it if you put the data together right now the credit data on
Friday
DATE
was not great The date overnight terrible that rate cut is that gonna make a difference If we're facing what a lot of people think we are facing which is some former bandit recession in that economy. I don't think it's gonna make a huge difference. I mean, look this rate cut was
four
CARDINAL
they did
10
CARDINAL
basis points
Medium
PRODUCT
term but what they're really trying to do is fix the loan group that's The issue is so much and what they're so concerned about. Obviously, a lot of that is tied to the property sector.
This morning
TIME
on how much they're struggling within the property sector while still trying to deliver over
the last couple of years
DATE
and it's Lower demographic Age demographic with the property sector struggling and with the shutdowns just now ending I think we're in for some more negative news coming out of
China
GPE
and how that relates to supply chains and issues flowing through to the
US
GPE
and demand for
US
GPE
from
US
GPE
consumers for demand for
Chinese
NORP
goods I Typically we talk about
China
GPE
exporting disinflation Been exporting inflation because of these supply chain problems over
the last couple of years
DATE
. What is the pass over the past
three
CARDINAL
look like from this weakness we're seeing play out in that economy Yeah, you know, I'm actually a little bit more concerned with the pass through the past over there. We're gonna see coming out of
Europe
LOC
. Natural gas that we're seeing there you couple
Europe
LOC
being
one
CARDINAL
of the largest buyers of
Chinese
NORP
goods and the concern there then I think coupled together that's gonna Some concern it's why I actually agree with the idea that
early 2023
DATE
is when the
US
GPE
might start to see some severe issues in regards to leading to recession not necessarily the rest of
this year
DATE
but looking into
next year
DATE
Or we'll see some problems. Well, in
Europe
LOC
right to go and up, in
China
GPE
,
James
PERSON
, they're going down. Ask this question
this morning
TIME
,
James
PERSON
, I'll ask it of you. Are they confronting a liquidity trap In a
Chinese
NORP
economy Is interesting right the terms that you use in the
Ask this question this morning James I'll ask it of you are they confronting a liquidity trap in a
Chinese
NORP
economy This interesting right the terms do you use in there John liquidity trap balance cheap recession this is very reminiscent I mean if if if you've ever followed
Richard Coo
PERSON
you you'll know his work well on on what happened to
Japan
GPE
and and the difficulties with stimulating when you are in a balance sheet recession ultimately the short answer to that is that it doesn't matter how much you cut It's not the price of money which is the problem. It is the demand for loan for other reasons, not least that you have balance sheets, which need repairing, which is a problem, which is not resolved, easily, by low interest rates in
Japan
GPE
's case, it was offset, though not resolved by a lot of fiscal stimulus and that's why we've seen debt to GDP there all the way up to the sort of
25300%
PERCENT
See before is
today
DATE
I don't think
China
GPE
wants to make that mistake that's everything that they're telling is they understand the challenge and they don't want to make the mistake of heavily relying on monetary policy to try and deal with a problem which doesn't really have its roots in monetary policy. Ultimately
China
GPE
has struck through challenges. These were inevitable. And you cannot solve structural And I don't think they want to I think first and foremost is you've already described though the priorities here are political in nature presidency needs to get through the
congress
ORG
consolidate his power and then and only then really may he feel in Bolden to try and take on these challenges because they are difficult to deal with ultimate The big one is the savings rate.
China
GPE
needs to get it's consumers to spend more and save less and nothing which has been on the table from
Chinese
NORP
policy makers even really acknowledges that problem let alone profit a solution to deal with it. That transition to consumption domestically for a long, long time now.
James Athy
PERSON
, awesome to catch up buddy as always.
Victoria Fernandez
PERSON
there on the latest as well. We'll continue this conversation of the back of the, is it a bear market rally? Isn't it a bear market rally debate of
the last month or so
DATE
? Right now, negative six tenths of
one%
ORG
. Covering up the
morning
TIME
calls and later. Thanks for
America
GPE
pushing back against the rally seeing further down side. That conversation just around the corner with
Jill
PERSON
,
Kerry Hall
PERSON
, looking forward to that for
New York
GPE
this Monday morning
DATE
. Good morning to you all. This is
Bloomberg
ORG
. Deadly forest fires receding rivers in this episode of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're focusing on extreme weather we'll explore the science behind the recent heat wave More extreme than it is now. I'm afraid that's inevitable. The consequences of extreme weather there is overall low awareness that heat kills Until recently there's not been as much effort to try and educate people about the dangers of heat. Solutions for the planet to mitigate and adapt. Government to lead on this and we need government to And stop sending
Sam Headquarters
PERSON
in
New York
GPE
and don't miss this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
airing this weekend
Bloomberg TV
ORG
. Quick take
Aunt
PRODUCT
online. Minutes away from the opening bar
this morning
TIME
. Good
morning
TIME
. Empath manufacturing from
the New York Fed
ORG
brutal.
5 minutes
TIME
away from the opening bound this morning. Good
morning
TIME
.
Empa
ORG
manufacturing from
the New York Februtal
ORG
. Really really bad. Severe drop off an equity drop in
two
CARDINAL
down
16th
ORDINAL
of one% on a SMP on the Nasdaq down
about a third
CARDINAL
of one% or so The bigger reaction off the back of that data point was in the bond market yields heading south
2000
DATE
's and
30s
DATE
look like
First
ORDINAL
up city group reiterating asparagus view on
Cisco
GPE
expecting shares to remain undepressure and it continuing supply chain disruptions that stock is down by run
about seven tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
your
second
ORDINAL
call
Limited
ORG
upside until inflation begin to stabilize with down there by
about eight
CARDINAL
tenths to 39 14 and finally beam out downgrading dollar general to market the form recommending investors wait for a better entry point we're down there negative one. Two% on dollar general let's stop
250
CARDINAL
in a free market After the longest weekly winner streak of
the year
DATE
so far. Thanks for
America
GPE
. Looking to fade the rally. We'll catch up with
Jill Kerry Hall
PERSON
. Thank
America
PERSON
next with This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Cryptocurrency have been very popular and if a client came to you and said, look, I'd like some cryptocurrencies in my portfolio. What would you say? Oh, we've actually been really deep into crypto, Into learning about blockchain And all of the new businesses. You know, I would characterize this as Crypto Both in some of the currency baskets as well as with some adventure firms that are investing primarily in the computer area. I think it has the potential to be Lately game changing. But it is still Such the wild west and so it's so uncertain but there's Has the potential to completely upend everything. Renewable. This is a level of uncertainty that we haven't had to deal with. Television and radio.
One
CARDINAL
of the most important things is looking around the corner.
24 seconds
TIME
away from the opening band in
New York
GPE
this Monday morning
DATE
. Good morning.
4 weeks
DATE
of getting done SMP. Longest
weekly
DATE
winning streak of
the year
DATE
so time. The SMP
500
CARDINAL
. A rally of close to
17%
PERCENT
of the lows are
2022
DATE
. Futures
this morning
TIME
. Negative by
about five
CARDINAL
or
610
CARDINAL
One% on the SMP. I'm a nice act. Done
about a third
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. We'll talk about a small cap so they'll be late to this morning to
Russell
PERSON
. Down by
eight
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
. That was your open a bow. Switch to the border. Get to the bond Negative the alternative too down
six
CARDINAL
basis points
Negative 40
PRODUCT
basis points ish on a
two
CARDINAL
ten's curve in the effects market dollar stronger euro week a euro dollar just about holding on to
102
CARDINAL
after breaking that level a little bit earlier this morning and francing sent to And many others too. More than five% to $
87
MONEY
and I ran about ยข30 that's across that set price section
about 40 seconds
TIME
into this one that's getting some movers is
Abby John
PERSON
well with this massively softer open here for
US
GPE
stocks not surprisingly we have a lot of lagers Data out of
China
GPE
and also the
New York
GPE
fed
ORG
while accidental petroleum down
three
CARDINAL
. Seven% this is crude as you were just mentioning down five%
China
GPE
of course the world's largest user of natural resources so that's slow down really weighing on some of these stocks here marathon oil also lower no interestingly we have course Perhaps the idea if the world's
second
ORDINAL
largest economy is slowing down again what does that mean for the
US
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
and then finally
Apple Off
ORG
of its lows down ever so slightly looking like it may actually flip higher not so long for now John. Minutes into this. Super super defensive. We're down
four tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
on a S and P. Just look at the sector composition here. The app performance coming from utilities, staples, health care, real estate. You might have guessed that. Give them a move we're seeing and yield to financials under performed down
19th
ORDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Really defensive as I say materials, energy, not
About three
CARDINAL
. Eight% on the SMP 500. That's the broader recording market on the SMP. What I talk about a Russell 2000 breaching is
200 day
DATE
move in average in the previous session.
Ed Cliff
PERSON
sold of
Ned Davis
PERSON
saying the following. Small caps tend to out perform in an early stages of Market rally. It has room to outperform for
at least the next several weeks
DATE
. Take us back with us for more. Hey,
Taylor
PERSON
. And
John
PERSON
, I read that note coming out at
the end of last week
DATE
and really interesting and indeed, up until
today
DATE
, you did have a Really a big out performer. Let's talk about some of those key tactical levels. Right now, we're just holding on to that
2000
DATE
on
the Russell 2000
WORK_OF_ART
. I've a
200 day
DATE
moving average at
2011
DATE
Touchdown
GPE
on
Friday
DATE
just below it but really right there on the line when you think about some of those key
200 day
DATE
moving averages and the technicals and the strength that You talked a lot about that
Davis
PERSON
note there of course At the beginning of these rallies
Strength
ORG
has been a big headwind for some of the big multinationals as they translate a lot of their overseas profits back into
a Nominated Russell 2000
PERSON
you could argue maybe doesn't have a lot of those headwinds as there more maybe domestically focused more
US
GPE
focus and so you don't have that translation adjustment on the balance sheet indeed you have that big out performance Relative to the S and P 500 here is you think about maybe dollar being a tailwind instead of a headwind finally take a look at some of the individual Russell 2000 Do we call this a new bull market or do I get in trouble for saying that? If we're off,
more than 20%
PERCENT
from some of those big lows. I think you can call it whatever you wanna call it, Saver. I'll give you a I'm still trying to work out. Is it a bear market rally? Is it a bull market? Something durable.
Taylor
PERSON
was I said earlier on the program. Someone came up with the best response to that. The difference between the
two
CARDINAL
hindsight And it's always the same thing. You always know a lot later on.
Taylor
PERSON
, thank you. Breaking it down for us. Take a risk there. We are about 3 or
4 minutes
TIME
The difference between the
two
CARDINAL
hindsight and it's always the same thing. You always know a lot later on.
Taylor
PERSON
, thank you. Breaking it down for us. Take a risk there. We are about 3 or
4 minutes
TIME
into this and I have to say beneath the headline. There's a lot going on. At the headline at the surface the SMP 500 not doing much at all we're negative four tenths of
one%
ORG
the
Nasdaq
ORG
totally unchanged the division on Wall Street's not going anywhere you know the story more can stand the other one side
JP Morgan
ORG
on the other walking to With everything looking for weaker profits and rising rates to put stocks lower
JP Morgan
ORG
saying guess what
Kelly
PERSON
lines to this camp continue yeah you can always count on these
two
CARDINAL
to disagree with each other John if you can count on anything at all and of course what they're disagreeing on now is the trajectory of the equity Over
the last 4 weeks
DATE
the longest weekly winning streak for the S and P 500 going back to
November up 2021
DATE
that has brought the index up
Percent
ORG
since it's low in
mid June
DATE
the
Nazdac
ORG
100
CARDINAL
is up
about 22%
PERCENT
since Primarily driven by rates sensitive grow stocks as bond yields have pulled back and they say that any ship back in the value Ultimately they think the S and P is going to end the year at
4800
CARDINAL
then there Take from the bear
Mike Wilson
PERSON
who's target is down at
3900 for June 2023
DATE
he says that this
Slow
ORG
down. Profits are going
to weekend
DATE
. He has been talking about margins for some time now and he says, all of that adds up to a not favorable risk reward when it comes to equities. There's also Actually pointing out that although buyback operations have jumped
18%
PERCENT
so far
this year
DATE
to
856 1 billion dollars
MONEY
actual On stock repurchases saying
21%
PERCENT
in
the second quarter
DATE
compared with the
first
ORDINAL
and of course there's a new tax policy potentially that needs to fit into this equation as well but that could be another hurdle
Benchmark S
GPE
and P this year
Sean
NORP
.
Kelly
PERSON
, thank you. We used to this story. Kelly's gone through it.
Morgan Stanley
ORG
, the one side,
JP Morgan
ORG
Right now just publish your moments ago here's the quote CPI Miss an average alley earnings beat plus weekling demand equals bad for corporates beneath the surface real growth remains weak and investors laser focus
Fed
ORG
combating inflation via short rates ignores the elephant in the room and police to say that
Jill Kerry Hall
PERSON
joins us right now
Jill
PERSON
you and the team you're pushing back just walk me through the white. Well I think you know what we've seen recently is we're we're still seeing evidence of strong inflation you know CPI was Higher than expected. So, you know, we think this is a recipe for risk to margins for breast and P
500
CARDINAL
companies. Consensus For margins to return to to peak levels
next year
DATE
and you know there there's still looking for high single digit earnings growth
this year
DATE
and next so you know we we think the outlook and in light of the macro conditions has has looked optimistic We enter a mild recession so you know we have had We Earnings could actually decline
next year
DATE
if if we do go into recession so we think it's you know at this point is about We would be selective within areas of
US
GPE
Is weather this is just a bear market rally or something more cheerable You and
Savita
PERSON
and the team basically have this list of signed posts that need to be triggered to signal the end of a bear market run What are those signed posts and how many of them have actually been triggered and did this work back in
spring 2020
DATE
? That's right. We we look back historically at, you know, the the the prior markets and then, you know, what usually happened before a new bull market occurred and you know, bare
America
GPE
rallies are pretty common to seeing these, you know, five or even 10 Rallies up from the lows but still within the context of a
And it has an impact it slows the economy and of the economy slows corporate profits go down we have not seen those earning estimates come down yet and that's really We're waiting for Nadu. What would you say to people say that say that maybe some of this is just too early that maybe the witness Really come until the front
half of 2023
DATE
in this conversation's premature
Chris Harvey
PERSON
was fargo taken that view what would you say back Look, I mean, I think there's there's a lot of signals out there right now that we're watching. When you look at, we we have a regime indicator within the
US
GPE
that monitors different
Territory
ORG
.
Data
ORG
has remained strong. We think that is a continued case for the
fed
ORG
to to continue hiking
this year
DATE
. You know, we we do expect, you know,
two
CARDINAL
more
50
CARDINAL
basis point, hikes, and then a
25
CARDINAL
basis point hike before the
fed
ORG
goes on pause and then ultimately starts cutting in the You know continued late cycle you know soft landing but Volatility from here you know we we do think there are opportunities right now as I mentioned so you know typically when volatility Total returns rather than than price returns and and Been favorable on, you know,
US
GPE
small caps over large caps. Even if we we are in an environment where recession risk is high, we think that, you know, there are some fundamental tail ones to small And there are also, you know, at this point, small caps are more adequately pricing in the risks of a recession. For small cats. The
Russell
PERSON
's done about
one%
ORG
today but that's not indicative of how it's performed over
the last few months
DATE
or
two
CARDINAL
but you'll just walk me through that. Sure, so I think, you know, we've, we generally seen over the past, you know, since
Small
PERSON
caps are much more exposed to the the service side and the economy. We've also seen, you know, one of the takeaways from the starting season is that, you know, even though
Guidance
ORG
is held up Across the board. So, for both large caps and small caps, you've seen our names guidance. It's kinda surprised the upside but
one
CARDINAL
particularly positive thing for small caps is that capex spending has held up very well corporate sir are still investing. That and they've been guiding very A lot of companies are gonna need to spend Cycles than large caps are
Catch
PERSON
up as always. And a team over at
BFA
ORG
pushing back against this rally over
the last month
DATE
and as I say they're not alone or can stand there alongside them JP
Morgan
PERSON
pushing back note out
Marco Klanovich
PERSON
and a team over at JP are gonna publish a little bit later
today
DATE
. I look forward to reading that. Right now,
about 12 minutes
TIME
in. We're down
a half
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. I said not much going on at the surface Beneath the surface though energy is getting hammocked we're down more than four% on the SMP and that's slightly off the back of what's happening with crew
this morning
TIME
I can tell you Brent and WTI getting hammered too we're down by more than five% on WTI 287 on Brent down a ran about Percentage points on
Brent
GPE
to 93 20. I mentioned the data out of
China
GPE
one
CARDINAL
bad. The day travel to the
US
GPE
this morning
TIME
. Empire manufacturing too. Ugly. That's really when I'll come out and see this morning Just Brent and WTI but also carpet and some of the base metals too. Coming up we'll turn to politics in
Washington
GPE
. The former president in some hot water. No one is above the law
Donald Trump
PERSON
is not above the law
Congress
ORG
has the powers of oversight he needs to comply
I'm next. The difference between missed opportunity And actionable intelligence. Strategic advice
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
offers an unmatched platform of analytics tools and business intelligence. All to help improve productivity mitigate risk and inform decision making for the comprehensive platform that helps you work smarter and faster to differences
Bloomberg Law
PERSON
And you're one of the most fascinating entrepreneurs 'cuz you all started really young. What did you learn? Did you always think that you'd be an entrepreneur Probably yes. Word and and still can't again. It's it's sort of in my blood but it it's really fun starting a business. It's and fun growing a business. I feel it's a real privilege. And I started my business officially at
18
CARDINAL
but I think I knew I wanted to do it very differently from
about 15
CARDINAL
. But I'm sure it's you know if you're surrounded by it feels very natural. So so yes it's It's fun. Making you want to By my mother when I was about 61 if her whole time bags and I remember how it made me feel and I think fashion is fascinating for the mood changing the confidence boosting aspects and sort of tribal aspects of of what fashion does and so I went at
18
CARDINAL
to Florence knowing that was the home of a beloved which is Interested me. I just wanted to learn that she'll be surrounded by craftsman who are making things as important and that's gonna be very interesting. I think over the next sort of
10 years
DATE
. I think the onshoring of of craft and manufacturing is gonna be fascinating. Actually, when I watched the offshoring, I literally saw it. And I think we're gonna be seeing that coming back. To local. We have to Objectives in terms of carbon you know proximity is gonna be key.
Bloomberg
PERSON
has enhanced search on the terminal. To deliver what you need when you need it. Now, you can simply type phrases in everyday
English
LANGUAGE
in the command line. Compare financials Analyze Marcus You can enter phrases Or ask questions What do you want to know
today
DATE
? Ask a question or visit search go to find answers now. No one is above the law.
Donald Trump
PERSON
is not above a law. He needs to comply we've seen material like this before we've seen materials that have been submitted to courts for for warrants this is not unprecedented his actions are unprecedented Lawmakers pressuring the
US
GPE
government for classified document cease that
Mari Largo
PERSON
The law is king the president isn't king and I would add to that former president isn't king everyone has to follow the laws this is gonna be up to
the justice department
ORG
to make a decision about what happened here AMH down in
DC
GPE
for more
Anne Marie
PERSON
this was the story in
Washington
GPE
over the weekend Yeah it certainly is Jonathan and Senator there also said in that interview that when she has had in the past to go look at these types of class
Documents
GPE
that are top secrets you had to take her off when she goes into these rooms called skiffs to look at these documents so you see the politics following that
Classified documents that are top secret she had to take her fit bit off when she goes into these rooms called skiffs to look at these documents so you see the politics following that raid really reverberating on both Of the aisle and what you have is both sides of the aisle asking for the content of those documents. So, you have senator
Warner
ORG
who's the chair of
the senate intelligence committee
ORG
along with Vice
Chair
PERSON
,
Marco Rubio
PERSON
, obviously, a
Republican
NORP
, and a
Democrat
NORP
asking the
DOJ
ORG
and the office of
the National Intelligence Director
ORG
for the contents of what was in
Documents 11
EVENT
sets of classified material was taken from Mar a Lago where their president has a residence and also his resort in
Palm Beach
GPE
Florida
GPE
the question really is is if they find out the contents of that what comes next
Republicans
NORP
it'd be really wanna know that justification for going into the president's private home and his residence and for the
Democrats
NORP
is really about whether or not and how or how they could show that potentially national security was compromised by this action Emily on
Friday
DATE
gone into
the weekend
DATE
as ours bust after hour Asked. We got a fuller picture of what actually happened and took place over
the last few months or so
DATE
. Things have gone quiet now. I'm ready. Do you have a decent idea of the timeline for
the week ahead
DATE
and what we can expect While many are pushing for we heard from representative
Brian Fitzpatrick
PERSON
over
the weekend
DATE
talking to
CBS
ORG
's face the nation he was saying that we need to know the justification for this he's a Or
FBI
ORG
agent so he's also telling his
Republican
NORP
colleagues to be careful for the words they use cuz we've have seen an uptick of rhetoric and what the
FBI
ORG
and the DOJ are telling their their individuals that work for them is They are concerned about potential threats. There's a many
Republican Party
ORG
pushing for the affidavits. We can get more information behind really the why but at the moment,
Jonathan
ORG
, a lot of this, they're really is no timeline. It's wait and see depending on what
the Department of Justice
ORG
and
FBI
ORG
do or say next. Big focus down in
DC
GPE
for
the week
DATE
ahead and beyond that's for sure AMH
Dan
PERSON
in
Washington
GPE
Amary thank you our focus of course is on the economic date we got retail sales a little bit
later this week
DATE
some fed minutes as well a little bit of peace and quiet from the Just a little bit because you will get some speakers and a mix later this week and then might be key into
next week
DATE
is
Jackson
GPE
how Wyoming time All gonna be out riding horses is that what we're doing? Yes. We got it. We gotta teach you to do that. Is that what I've signed up for? Can we talk about the data About the data and it's gonna be interesting
this week
DATE
because a lot of it is gonna tell us things we already know. It's just a question of degree. On
Tuesday, tomorrow
DATE
, we have housing starts. We know the
fed
ORG
has affected housing with the entire interest rate Empire
today
DATE
. Might be worth a look. Retail sales is gonna be the big one of Everybody wants to know whether the consumer is still hanging in. Of course, that's influenced by the fact that oil is a big part of it with gas The fed minutes I don't think it's going to be all that important and the reason being it was
3 weeks ago
DATE
and we've had that strong jobs report and weak inflation reports Because of empire And then as you mentioned, we have some
FedSpeak
ORG
,
George Kashkari
PERSON
, and
Barkin George
PERSON
the only voter. So, we'll see what she has to say. There is another aspect to
Next week
DATE
and that gets to the title there about what they say. Got a lot of retail earnings when starting with the discounters. Walmart and
TJX
ORG
and
Cole
PRODUCT
's plus
Home Depot
ORG
and
Lowe's
ORG
. Will they tell us the Is doing better or worse going forward. What's their outlook? We'll get the backward look from the Consumer going forward with their inventories going forward and of course, remember,
Walmart
ORG
sells gas Yes and gas is gonna be a big feature of the numbers coming up on
Wednesday
DATE
and retail sales might for that reason and we focused on the control group as oppo The headline retail sales number. Rid of cars and we get rid of building material and we get rid of gasoline and that'll give you a core group that basically is
kinda
GPE
what goes GDP crude right now getting hammocked the S and P 500
Building material and we get rid of gasoline and that'll give you a chore group that basically is kinda what The GDP crude right now getting hammocked the S and P
500
CARDINAL
energy companies getting hammer too might be key
Samro
PERSON
ask this on
Twitter
PRODUCT
when did you last see in an official report on economic data the word plummet Been a while hasn't it? It's been a while. We saw that with the
Empire
GPE
number
today
DATE
. We'll see if anybody else does that. That'll be the in
Numbers
ORG
were a small drop We're looking for plummet in terms of inflation. We're not looking for it in terms of production. Absolutely. Energy equities down might be key
the data week
DATE
might make thank you and yours down too on
a 10 year
DATE
by
seven
CARDINAL
basis points to
about 276
CARDINAL
on a
2 year
DATE
by let's call it
six
CARDINAL
basis points to
about 318
CARDINAL
. I mentioned we're a bit defensive
this morning
TIME
and you see that almost everywhere. The SMP down
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. No trauma at the headline number but elsewhere beneath the surface. A lot going on. Coming up the market moving events you need to be watching. I'll run you through the trading diary from
New York City
GPE
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
. We were thinking big from the beginning I mean the reason that I I was interested in doing this in the
first
ORDINAL
place was a much bigger challenge than making it comfortable shoe or or doing something in the fashion industry as AA narrow opportunity we we thought that There was a big leadership opportunity.
Every single year
DATE
and it was
100%
PERCENT
made from plastic and that the hides from cows and it was terrible for the environment and we thought that we could offer something to consumers that was Compete on a totally different factor than what the rest in the industry we're doing.
25 minutes
TIME
into the session no drama of the headline level on the surface with down
about a 10th
CARDINAL
of one% on a SMP then that's next now positive the
Russell
PERSON
struggling down
eight
CARDINAL
sense of
one%
ORG
but energy Somewhere between
four
CARDINAL
and five% off the back of some pretty dreadful day throughout of
China
GPE
In the
US
GPE
too. A surprise action hits you training diary. More data still to come.
Us
GPE
housing starts coming up on
Tuesday
DATE
. Retail sales in
5 minutes
TIME
on
Wednesday
DATE
plus GDP out of the
Euro
ORG
zone. The
Fed
ORG
's S the George and Neil Cash Gary speaking on
Thursday
DATE
followed by existing home sales and another round Jobless claims from
New York City
GPE
. Thank you for choosing
Bloomberg TV
ORG
. This was the countdown to the open front. Audience worldwide with their colleagues doing just about okay. This is
Most of us don't spend much time thinking about the grid the dizzily huge system of cables transformers and outlets that reliably powers our lives it's an easily ignored change resistant part of the modern world and that's the way we like it But as we move towards this planet melting ways of producing electricity the grid is going to have to evolve too. So many countries and governments announcing high targets when it comes to decobonization and being climate neutral. But this is just one side of the coin. It's not enough to simply generate green energy. We also need to make sure that this transmitted and distributed to the end consumers. The grid of the day just isn't equipped for renewables so a new kind of grid is starting to take shape The super grid That's essential. You see that coming? The moment news breaks
24 hours
TIME
a day.
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Can Griffin is moving both sit it out and send it all security is to
Miami
GPE
the scooper's broken by
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Amanda Pepsi's
ORG
number fever campaign in the
Philippines
GPE
has probably gone down in history as one of the biggest marketing disasters in history Mainly because of a human era that led Perhaps need to print more winning caps than they The resulting chaos caused riots
Rest
ORG
. Reporting this story took over a year and it resulted in me flying to
Manila
GPE
in the
Philippines
GPE
to meet unlucky winners. And to find out exactly what happened back then in the
1990
DATE
's. My name is
Jeff Mesh
PERSON
. I'm a journalist based in
Los Angeles
GPE
. I wrote the story for
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
about
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever campaign. The
Philippines
GPE
is a really interesting country. It's made up of
thousands
CARDINAL
of islands. It's also a country that's very heavily influenced by
America
GPE
They're obsessed with
Frank Sinatra
PERSON
music for example. They love all things
America
GPE
and that extends to their their love for soft drinks
Pepsi Cola Coca Cola
ORG
In the
1990
DATE
's it was everywhere
Pepsi
ORG
and
Coca-Cola
ORG
were in broiled in what is now known as the cola wars. It was a fierce
Pepsi
ORG
and
Coca Cola
ORG
were embroiled in what is now known as the It was a fierce battle
Dominance
ORG
. Number fever was already a really popular promotion. It had been rolled out in
America
GPE
to great success.
Pepsi
ORG
decided to roll it out internationally particularly in
Asia
LOC
they thought it was the answer to their problems they thought it could finally help them beat their biggest competitor. Hey Hey Newspaper Millionaire. A
one 1 million
QUANTITY
pesos or
$68 thousand
MONEY
doesn't sound like a lot now but in
1992
DATE
that was a phenomenal amount of money You've gotta remember that in the
Philippines
GPE
at the time the average
monthly
DATE
income was
about $100
MONEY
so Was wealth beyond anyone's wildest imaginations Number fever caught fire in the
Philippine
NORP
Kids were saving up their pocket money to buy a bottle of
Pepsi
ORG
Was squirreling away all of the bottle caps in bags you would walk down the street and people were going through trash trying to find discarded bottle caps It was a national phenomenon. Perhaps he posted that
half
CARDINAL
the population of the
Philippines
GPE
was playing it.
Number five
CARDINAL
boosted
Pepsi
ORG
sales
every month
DATE
from
10 1 million dollars
MONEY
to
14 1 million dollars
MONEY
. It had a huge impact on
Pepsi
ORG
's bottom line. Number fever quickly became number hysteria Aids were being jailed for stealing there employers winning bottle caps there was even Murders over over winning bottle caps people were fighting in the streets Over these caps. There was signs that they were going to be problems with number fever very early.
Pepsi
ORG
had rolled out the competition in
Chile
GPE
and a garbled facts had caused some kind of problem with the winning number. They'd announced the wrong one in
Chile
GPE
. Cause a riot there was signs that there could be big problems ahead They didn't keep their eye on the ball. So, in
1992
DATE
,
Pepsi
ORG
decided to extend the campaign in the
Philippines
GPE
and they announced that the competition would go on for
a few more weeks
DATE
.
One night
TIME
on the television news they announced the latest winning number.
349
CARDINAL
. The problem was Earlier campaigns so there were literally
hundreds of thousands
CARDINAL
of bottle caps with
349
CARDINAL
just floating around
the Philippines Hundreds of thousands
FAC
of people all across the
Philippines
GPE
thousands
CARDINAL
of islands Finding winning bottle caps
9349
PRODUCT
. Some people had
10
CARDINAL
lucky
349
CARDINAL
bottle caps People are dancing in the streets celebrating Thought their problems were over. They were millionaires. Still not certain exactly how many winners there were of lucky
349
CARDINAL
bottle caps but we know that
Pepsi
ORG
printed over
600 1000
QUANTITY
of them
Pepsi
ORG
realized very early that there was a problem
Hundreds
CARDINAL
of people started arriving at their buckling plants with their lucky bottle caps They realized something was seriously wrong Perhaps he tried to solve the problem by offering a small token donation to anyone that brought a lucky bottle cap. To their bottling plan. But it wasn't enough People didn't want just a handful of pesos. People wanted their
one 1 million
CARDINAL
peso priors. Within
a year
DATE
violent protest and riots outside
Pepsi
ORG
factories would leave
dozens
CARDINAL
injured and
five
CARDINAL
people dead. At
one
CARDINAL
Pepsi
ORG
factory in the
Philippines
GPE
. It killed
three
CARDINAL
Pepsi
ORG
employees. Anna see to
Rosario
PERSON
was school teacher living near
Manila
GPE
in the
Philippines
GPE
She was one of the tragic victims of this whole thing. She was
Rosario was school teacher, living near
Manila
GPE
in the
Philippines
GPE
. She was one of the tragic victims of this whole thing. She was walking to a nearby store to buy some rice
1 day
DATE
when a monotop cocktail was thrown at a
Pepsi
ORG
truck And and a violent protest. It bounced under the truck and exploded. It killed her Innocent bystander who was just a child and injured many others. When I was in the
Philippines
GPE
, I tracked down
Annasita
GPE
's daughter,
Cindy
ORG
, and her husband, Roll, It was clear to me that they were still very upset You know a family had been ripped apart by this competition Told me that he'd never remarried. He'd That he'd gone to meet
Pepsi
ORG
executives after his wife was killed He was angry. He he said to them, you know, this wouldn't have happened if it wasn't for you. If it wasn't for number fever. The biggest revelation from my reporting Remove that
Pepsi
ORG
with somehow involved in bombing their own drugs. On the newspaper report with a headline that said
Pepsi Goons
ORG
bomb their own trucks and when I visited the MBI the police In in the
Philippines
GPE
by presenting me with documents and interviews with people who claimed that
Pepsi
ORG
had paid them to cause riots and to cause trouble Their plans. Order to destabilize the situation into frame the owners of the coalitions There were there were fighting them to try and curry favour I just thought that was that was so shocking and of course
Pepsi
ORG
denied it but How bizarre that a company would be accused of bombing their own trucks? The contest had sparked so much anger in the
Philippines
GPE
because it landed at just this really weird time in the
Philippines
GPE
history. It was during a crazy election that was With allegations of fraud the
Philippines
GPE
was in a kind of love hate relationship with
America
GPE
They loved obviously the
American
NORP
aid and finances that was pouring into the country
Philadelphia
GPE
Was a local preacher living in
Manila
GPE
and he hated the number fever campaign
Del Fierro
PERSON
thought
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever campaign was just one of the many ways that
America
GPE
was asserting its dominance over a
third
ORDINAL
world country. He hated seeing his fellow countrymen get ripped off in his eyes. By this huge multinational
American
NORP
company. Don't fear oh rounded up
over 800
CARDINAL
winners of
349
CARDINAL
bottle caps I think got them all together to Sue Pepsi For over
400 1 million dollars
MONEY
to be divided between those holders of lucky bottle Don't fearo took money from summer fee people who could afford it they paid in
500
CARDINAL
pesos to help with legal fees but for people who couldn't afford the the money he would just represent them pro bono Hey Hey Facebook He flew to
America
GPE
And he hired
two
CARDINAL
consumer lawyers here in
America
GPE
to take on
Pepsi
ORG
. He had a meeting at
Pepsi
ORG
's headquarters to try and resolve the problem. But he said he wanted to take it all the way to the highest courts in
America
GPE
. When those cases were heard in
America
GPE
those courts decided that this was a problem that should be heard in the
Philippines
GPE
not in
America
GPE
. Back in the Philippines Delphiaro continued his case in the
Filipino
NORP
courts At
one
CARDINAL
stage there were arrest warrants.
Back in the
Philippines
GPE
Del Fierro
PERSON
continued his case in the Philipino courts At one stage there were arrest warrants handed out for
nine
CARDINAL
Pepsi
ORG
cola executives. Which he saw is a big victory. We don't know if those arrest warrants were ever upheld. But it made newspaper headlines across the country. There's been so much Hey kindly to
Del Fierro's
GPE
campaign
Tried
ORG
everything to shut him down They sued him for libel My father had to attend
three
CARDINAL
times a month for a brunch
145
CARDINAL
and another heating for the brunch
130
CARDINAL
also
two
CARDINAL
times a month Also there was a timer my father was hospital Otherwise We're not attending the judge will issue what a My father passed away
January 13
DATE
when then after stay for almost After the death of my father I was inspired to do the website
Mexico
GPE
will be remembered for what they did to the consumer in the
Philippines
GPE
and to my father When I reached out to
Pepsi
ORG
for comment for this story They claim that they didn't have access to anyone who was working at
Pepsi
ORG
that was around in those days. They also said that during COVID-19 they didn't have access to their their documents about this but You know they were very they were very careful to say that they were sorry for everything that happened and we do know that
Pepsi
ORG
did try everything to try and make this right. The
Pepsi
ORG
number fever disaster Cost the company
millions
CARDINAL
. We know that they paid up to
10 1 million dollars
MONEY
in those goodwill payments But the financial effect We know that
Pepsi
ORG
sales dipped They were overtaken by
Coca-Cola
ORG
again
Pepsi
ORG
's number fever disaster To the legacy of that soft drink in the
Philippines
GPE
forever Some people age won't touch it. For many people
Pepsi
ORG
is a taboo word A lot of the people that I spoke to were still quite traumatized By their experience buy that Experience of winning a
one 1 million
QUANTITY
pesos Poverty in Manila News of the Came out. It was a massive story in
Germany
GPE
. We are following some breaking news coming to us out of dortland in
Germany
GPE
. It was covered by all the media outlets.
Three
CARDINAL
roadside explosions triggered at the same time
last night
TIME
as a coach left its hotel in the south of
Dortmund
GPE
. Public figures commented on it. Let them affect our our life. Whoever it was. The media echo went far beyond. Don't mind. I think it was front page news and every single big paper around
Europe
LOC
Everyone thought of like a terrorist attack and people were scared that throughout the city in
Dolphin
GPE
there was more tax to be happening. Unbelieved to investigators just after the bomb went off and
the the Areas of the team
ORG
were shell shocked the person who had masterminded the attack was actually sitting In the hotel
Steak
GPE
and sweet potatoes.
The attack was actually sitting In the hotel
Steak
GPE
and sweet potatoes. My name is
Thomas Rogers
PERSON
. I'm the journalist who wrote the article the get rich quick scheme that nearly killed a
German
NORP
soccer team. Don't mind is a midsize city in the western part of
Germany
GPE
in the state called
Northwine West Australia
ORG
and it's a former industrial city that's kind of fun on hard times in
the last few Decades
DATE
. It was severely bombed in the war. So the center of the city is quite stark. Some of the few high points includes it's soccer team. My name is
Aiken
ORG
. I'm a reporter with
Bloomberg News
ORG
and I'm a great fan of
Boris Airport
PERSON
. Talking friends are super loyal on all match
days
DATE
the entire city is in black and yellow it's like a religion I think more than
German
NORP
cities Soccer does play a Very large rule in the identity of
Portland
GPE
. In
October of 2000
DATE
the BBB Became the
first
ORDINAL
team in the
Bunasley
PERSON
get to actually go public salaries for soccer players in
Buenas Lega
PERSON
have gone up very dramatically with such high prices they thought that by by going public they would be able to compete better with big teams like by endure unfortunately that didn't go too well but when bought too many expensive High wages and the club almost went bust in
2005
DATE
but the price of their shares it has sometimes gone up but Gone down since they made that decision So on
April 11 2017
DATE
the team was staying in a hotel on the outskirts of
Dortmund
GPE
.
Next day
DATE
is always special in
Auckland
GPE
. Everyone is looking forward. The team always meets in the same hotel ahead of matches. They stayed in this hotel in order to have a kind of neutral space before games so that they could Concentrate be a sort of isolated from distractions things like that. Everyone was pretty optimistic that a chance to go really far maybe into the finals. I was in the office and getting ready for match day was gonna meet with a friend a fellow dortman supporter in a pub as always the fans are very excited about matches on that We're heading to play in
the quarter
DATE
final against
ASMO
ORG
at signal you do not stadium which is
Center of Dortmund
ORG
. It's really before a
7 PM
TIME
the players of the team boarded their official team bus Took off the parking lot of the hotel and turned on the street where
three three
CARDINAL
detonations
three
CARDINAL
bombs that exploded and hit the bus of
Dawkland
GPE
Occurred close to the bus the B team bus had just left the hotel. The explosions destroyed
two
CARDINAL
windows in the rear part of the bus People jump to the ground. The Supposed to watch match with he called me and said turn on turn on the TV to was an attack of the dolphin bus and I thought he was like there was impossible. Some of the players screamed at the To keep driving as fast as possible because they were worried that People might storm the bus Metal pins and the one her pierced a seat headrest The team members the actual As they were to some parking the bus was actually eating steak and sweet potatoes at the hotel they had just left
Authorities
ORG
are attempting to verify a letter left at the scene claiming jihadist were behind the attack because there have been a series of attacks by
Islamic
NORP
terrorists in
Germany
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
. There was white spice suspicion in the media that this was another
Islamic
NORP
terror attack.
Three
CARDINAL
letters were found at the site of the bombing that took credit
Media that this was another
Islamic
NORP
terror attack.
Three
CARDINAL
letters were found at the site of the bombing that took credit for the attack on behalf of
Islamic
NORP
state. There were however reasons to to doubt this particular narrative. Would actually be a surprise. If
Isis
PERSON
were actually This this attack possibly could be employed by other groups at the far right wing to try and shift the blame. The letters had some strange qualities. They were written in a strange
German
NORP
that used big sophisticated words but have basic grammar mistakes as if someone was native
German
NORP
speaker but pretending to be foreign person federal investigators have detained
one
CARDINAL
man suspected of links to
Islamist
NORP
terrorism
one
CARDINAL
of
two
CARDINAL
suspects who's apartments were raided
this morning
TIME
Shortly after the the bombing a man in
Austria
GPE
named
Rudolph
PERSON
who is a was a big
BBB
ORG
fan he
Said
PERSON
something strange what's going on on the stock market related to the team shares the emailed the lawyers of
BBB
ORG
who then That email on to investigators. The email stated that someone had bought
60 1000
CARDINAL
BBB
ORG
put options a wager that the value of the shares of the team would fall below a certain amount of certain date Why would someone buy that ahead of a match and then Bombs go off something, something, something is right here. For the person to make money off of that, it require the stock to go down quite a bit in a fairly short period of time and it wouldn't just be The team losing match it would require something much bigger than that. There was another big red flag about this purchase which is the fact that it had actually been made. Number
one
CARDINAL
on the date of the volume but also from an IP address that had been traced to the actual hotel where the bombing had taken When
three
CARDINAL
explosions targeted the bus carrying the burasio dortman footballers on
April the 11th
DATE
written notes left at the scene claimed the attack was the work of I saw The truth as is now alleged is remarkable On
April 21
DATE
the police arrested a man in a
Southern German
NORP
city called Tubingan it was on his way to work and his name was If you seem like an unlikely suspects because he had no known connections to the
Islamic
NORP
terror world he didn't seem like a far right extremist he didn't seem like a left wing extremist either he seemed to be a completely Remarkable young man. A
28 year old
DATE
german
Russian
NORP
man named only a sergei W stayed in the same hotel as the players on the night before the bombing he specifically requested an upper Overlooking the bushes where the explosive devices were hidden. The media diceected why he would do that. What was his past? He It's been inspired by the
2015
DATE
terror attack in
Paris
GPE
and he noticed that in the aftermath of the attack the stocks of
French
NORP
companies went down and he'd believe that if an attack took place that was directed at a specific company That the decrease in stock price work for that company would be even more dramatic. It never occurred to anyone that someone would do that out of greed. Suspect bought
three
CARDINAL
different derivatives on the
Borsia Dortman
NORP
shares with all these derivatives he bet on falling shares The suspect bought the majority of these financial products on the
11th
ORDINAL
of April the day of the attack If the plot had been completely successful And the stockhead reached a value of oh inner gold would have made
up to โฌ570000
MONEY
with the equivalent of
about $608 thousand
MONEY
. Ultimately the plan Be backfired the attacker Court. He would be extremely quiet. He usually kept his hands class together.
One
CARDINAL
of the lawyers actually commented that he had never A defendant act so calmly
Vinor Gold
PERSON
had served sometime in the
German
NORP
military. From that information and from all.
A defendant act so calmly
Luvina Gold
ORG
had served sometime in the
German
NORP
military. From that information and from online research she was able to figure out how to assemble remote detonated bombs that would do He hoped to do There were a few days of extremely emotional testimony The soccer players who describe stouting whether or not they could ever play another game again. It brought everything back up and it didn't quite help them to kinda process what was going on Throw it at all. He sat there Silent. The big mystery that was swirling around the trial was the question of why
May
DATE
have simply done it because he wanted to impress a woman. Rebecca is a young woman who has a very troubled home life. She ultimately sees her relationship with
Vinergold
PERSON
as an opportunity to leave that troubled home.
Vinegar Gold
PERSON
is a
Russian
NORP
immigrant to
Germany
GPE
. He speaks with an accent. He has In large groups of
Germans
NORP
she begins to resent the fact that he has these fears and feels a little bit trapped but Rebecca attempts to dump him on multiple occasions and teeth threatens to commit suicide if she leaves him.
Vendor Gold
PERSON
apparently told Rebecca that she would soon be seeing a surprise. After Being dumped via text message he apparently began planning for this attack and earnest.
Vinegar Gold
PERSON
was charged with
28
CARDINAL
counts of attempted murder which carried a maximum sentence in
Germany
GPE
of life in prison If you claim that he had nothing to do with the attack but as time went on he admitted that he had actually been the person who had The explosives and had set them off But he claimed that he didn't want to actually kill anybody
Ultimate
ORG
gold didn't receive the harshest possible sentence he was given Years in prison but it's still a considerable amount in in jail in
Germany
GPE
. The threats have been asteroid hitting earth is very real. If it's big enough it's also very final These are very very infrequent events. The probability is not oh though. Flash of light streaking across the sky.
About 100 tons
QUANTITY
of space rock falls on earth every day. Most of it is so small it burns up in our atmosphere all lands unnoticed away from major populations No human in
the past 1000 years
DATE
is known to have been killed by a meteorite And according to
Nasa
ORG
no large object is likely to strike the earth anytime in
the next several 100 years
DATE
. However, Is certain. Haven't found them all. There are
thousands
CARDINAL
out there Don't know where they are. There are a lot of asteroids in our solar system The number in the
billions
CARDINAL
. And deflecting the most catastrophic of natural disasters. The race is on to find as many of these objects as we can. Calculating whether or not an estrogen is potentially
And deflecting the most catastrophic of natural disasters. The race is on to find as many of these objects as we can. Yes, a way of calculating whether or not an asteroid is potentially dangerous or not. I mean, I think it's something worth investing in. Sorry. Right?
Amy
PERSON
let's get this one out of the way it's probably the question you get asked the most but how scared should we be? Asteroids and comments are a natural Out there like a lot of other natural hazards. These are very very infrequent events. These collision events where
Object
ORG
actually impacts the
earth
LOC
. The most important thing that we need to know about asteroids is when the next impact is gonna happen and how bad it will be. What we know is that an object that's about say a kilometer across is capable causing very very wide devastation across the planet really truly global devastation. The object that wiped out the dinosaurs was somewhere in the neighborhood of
five to 10 km So
QUANTITY
, even bigger than that At
a kilometer
QUANTITY
it's still gonna be very bad and we'll have global effects For objects that are capable of causing whatever call sort of regional damage kind of a large major metropolitan area a city and it's surrounding environments sort of around a hundredish meters it depends on the details of the By the
1980
DATE
's
Nasa
ORG
was cataloging near earth objects. In
1994
DATE
stargazers watched as comet shoe make a levy
nine
CARDINAL
hit
Jupiter
LOC
. The resulting zone of chaos was estimated to be as large as the
earth
LOC
. In the event became its turning points in the search for asteroids and comets in our solar system. In
1998
DATE
Congress
ORG
task
Nasa
ORG
with finding
90%
PERCENT
of asteroids and comets
one km
QUANTITY
wide or larger. Soon after
Hollywood
GPE
blockbusters armagedon and deep impact brought attention and fear to the masses The great news is that the vast majority
more than 90%
PERCENT
of all the really large one km near earth objects have been found. The challenge now is working down to the smaller sizes that are still quite capable caus Lot of damage but they're just harder to spot because they're fainter. They're smaller. Can you give us a sense of how many are out there in our solar system? We know that there are a lot of asteroids in our solar system. The number in the
billions
CARDINAL
, most of them, however, are between
Mars
LOC
and
Jupiter
LOC
and what we call the main asteroid belt. This is a region of space where most of the afternoons in the inner part of our solar system live and they stay there for many billions of years. There's another
Somewhat
PERSON
close to the earth. And we call these near earth objects. We think that there are millions and millions of nearer objects that are out there in the total population. As of
today
DATE
, we know of the sort of
around 2025
DATE
,
1000
CARDINAL
something like that When we first spot an object, we we really know very little about it. We just see something moving across the sky All you get is just sort of a handful of snapshots just enough to be able to tell that this isn't an asteroid that we've already seen before and then once we can calculate the distance to it, we can now start to make predictions about its true size. Is it Or is it small So we have a lot of information that we have to get pretty quickly to really understand what's going on. Finding asteroids is just one piece of the puzzle.
Planetary
GPE
scientists are extremely skilled and determined in the orbits and speeds of asteroids based on relatively small amounts of data.
Nasa
ORG
run simulations of the trajectories asteroids could take which is useful but time consuming A team of scientists in the
Netherlands
GPE
have found a way that could buy us more time. Our methods is very quick. So you can very quickly get an assessment of whether or not your objects is dangerous or not. If you look at the classical way of determining the danger of an asteroid. It may take you know days of computing time on very big machines To to determine this this hazardousness the current problem is that there's just too many asteroids out there to us and a huge amount of computational power on all of them So the neural network allows us to focus on what really could go and
Spend a huge amount of computational power on all of them. So the neural network allows us to focus on what really could go and
Post
ORG
a hazard to earth. A neural network is a computing system that mimics the way the human brain operates to find underlying relationships in a set of data. By training the network in this way you you train it in recognizing those objects that are most likely to hit the planets. And once it strains you can apply it is network to all the unknown asteroids. And then you can make a selection and saying hey this is these are the ones which appear to be having orbits similar to the ones which we know are hitting the planets. That doesn't mean that they do but it does it only means that they look very similar to once Know they do. What else did you find? Should we be particularly concerned about anything? That we did find is that our neural network was able to go and identify a handful of asteroids which weren't considered potentially hazardous that when we went in in the greater than
Ford
ORG
in time they came quite close to If you find a handful which we're not detected before or not considered being dangered before and we think they are potentially dangerous. It's very hard to see me wake. And they're going forward in time and asteroid that's gonna hit earth What the earth is really small And what space is really big and then you have to have very exact parameters to shoot an asteroid that's goes and hits exactly earth. And then Simon had the ingenious idea of not even trying to do that and just launching the asteroids from her surface Integrating backwards and time. It's very hard to make it hit So you need a lot of calculations which all end up in nothing. And the idea was then, like, well, let's not do that. This is basically what
Nancy
PERSON
's doing. Now, it's taking an asteroid, making multiple copies of them, shooting them all for it in time, calculating their orbi And I see what freshing sort of gets close to earth. They'll even hitting earth but getting close to earth. And then they call it the potential impacter. So you calculate the
Charlotte
GPE
system forwards in time for let's say
a 1000 years
DATE
and then you launch estroids from the surface as if they if you go forwards in time would fall on the surface You calculate him backwards to today And then you get your orbital parameters of
today
DATE
's asteroid to which you know will land on the planet. And those you can use as known infectors. In the solar system Can simulations and and
AI
GPE
can those things fill in the gaps where perhaps telescopes and and other imaging tools can't. Absolutely. Since the observations get more complex. The physics gets more complex and if the physics will get more complex, the mathematics becomes more complex. And at some point, you can't solve your problems and analytically anymore. And then this is where the computer comes in. Now we have this train neural network. We have a way of calculating in
a fraction of a seconds
QUANTITY
. Whether or not an estrogen is potentially dangerous or not and therefore deserves more attention Or or more time to spend on Really finding out if it is dangerous. When it comes to hunting asteroids time is critical. What we can do about a potentially hazardous object depends a great deal on what we know about it and how much time we have before the encounter We'd really like to find the one there decades away. Because the more time you have, the more options you have. And the less energy it takes to to move an object decide. It also means we might not have to resort to launching a nuclear warhead as an asteroid. Until recently, pretty much are only choice. That's an option of last Yes. We have lots of options available. You can just simply pop into the object and just nudge it out of the way. That's
one
CARDINAL
possible and that's kind of in a way. This order the simplest thing to think about. Just nudging it off. It's packed a little bit with you know a massive object. A spacecraft would say it's kind of like bowling if you will. You know if you have A long time or a long stretch of of runway in the lane. Just a very small twist on the on the bowling ball. We'll make a big change in where it ultimately ends Another option it would be something where you take a very big big massive spacecraft and you park it next to the And you use the force of gravity as a towing rig. That takes longer though. And you need to be able to A pretty massive spacecraft and obviously depends a lot.
Object and you use the force of gravity as a towing rig. That takes longer though. And you need Send a pretty massive spacecraft and obviously depends a lot on how big the outstreet Other options start to get more and more complicated They range from painting one side of the object of white color and painting the other side dark and then letting the pressure of lights or preturb exorbitant. In a departure from the lab and computer simulations
Nasa
ORG
has real plans to rehearse kinetic impact reflection In
2021
DATE
the agency will launch dart the double asteroid redirection test mission which will intercept a
160
CARDINAL
m asteroid in
2022
DATE
Better to practice now before we have to deal with an actual threat. In the meantime, discovering asteroids is our best bet. Of scientists and amateur astronomers around the world make up an informal network that surveyed the heavens. But that may not be enough.
NASA
ORG
wants more resources to map our solar system and better technology. We need to ramp up our networking sensors and also we need to just continue to strengthen our our network of international observers so that we can get follow up Cuz we find these objects when they're distributed all over the night sky. Once we get more observations, we get better data. We can make better predictions If you look at the big impacts we have had in the last let's say
20 years
DATE
or
maybe 30 years
DATE
50 years Most of them we haven't seen coming so the danger the real danger I think comes from the objects we don't know about and not from your pets we do know about This particular natural disaster like a lot of natural disasters in my climate change is a problem with the global comments. So the thing that we risk collectively is that it's sort of then becomes nobody's problem Nobody takes ownership over it. Asteroids are all over the sky. They just truly cross boundaries and borders with the
seconds
TIME
notice. In the future maybe you watch a small satellites around the earth that are always going and looking out I mean i think it's something worth investing in Sorry existence at stake right The pandemic is affected everyone in different ways. Some past the time by baking. Some chose to binge watch netflix Or maybe you started a garden oasis in your backyard. Put my lettuces in But for
millions
CARDINAL
of others Posting stocks that will
Boom
PERSON
. They wanted to uproot the financial industry. Here's a stock that can change your life. Up and i buy it and i just watch it until it stops going up and then i sell it i have gained over
three 1 million dollars
MONEY
. I don't think you can overstate the online communities for social media influence on financial markets. Inexperienced investors who discuss their plans on social media platform Reddit have shaken up the stock market in a big way. The revolutionary I took up a little bit.
The more these stocks go up, the more the big guys are getting creamed and losing
billions of dollars
MONEY
. This is in a wealthy person's game anymore. Anyone can play it. I took up a little bit of a new hobby and I am interested in
day
DATE
trading. It's an investor nowadays. You don't have to look a specific way. You don't have to wear a specific clothes. You High rise building in in downtown
Manhattan
GPE
. The narrative of what's driving the market is no longer being held in secret offices in
New York
GPE
in
Boston Privilege
ORG
people talking to other privilege people it's right out in the open it's odd
Twitter
PERSON
it's unread it Apps to discord channels and sub
Reddits
NORP
to
TikTok Finth
ORG
influencers
one
CARDINAL
of the last holdouts in the world of disruption finance is next in line. Investing should be as you pick with us as shopping online. That's blood
10
CARDINAL
of the CEO of
Robin Hood
PERSON
the online brokerage app. Talking about how he wants his app to disrupt the world of stock trading like amazon disrupted the world of home shopping. And I think that speaks to exactly the mission that a platform like
Rob
PERSON
and Hood has which is to democratize investing.
Robin Hood
PERSON
was started in
2013
DATE
by Vlad tenniv and by jubat in where else silicon valley as an alternative to the big brokerages but with
one
CARDINAL
big difference Building the social network around finances for people they realize that there was a gap in the market and that free trading could become something that they could bring to the markets they could disrupt the industry While no feat trading is industry standard
today
DATE
it was unheard of when it was first introduced. Find brokerage industry was really innovative when they came on the scene
10 15 years ago
DATE
but they kinda stopped innovating where you haven't seen those commissions come down beyond
five
CARDINAL
or 6 or 7 dollars.
Robin Hood
PERSON
think that by offering oh commission that they're gonna push people onto this platform And on top of no fee trading the customers
Robin Hood
PERSON
was recording had been long overlooked in the world of
Finance
ORG
so the typical customer of a
Charles Schwab
PERSON
for example is putting a lot more money in that brokerage account than the typical customer at
Robin Hood
PERSON
even
today
DATE
with all of its popularity the median account sizes
about $240
MONEY
. Headache Single brokerage platform is how easy it is to use The design of the
Robin Hood
PERSON
app really hasn't mind a user who might be coming at this absolutely cold The fonts are very well sized. The shapes, the colors, all of that is something that the founders of
Robin Hood
PERSON
paid really close attention to. And by creating an interface that catered to a newer investor they were able to gather a pretty healthy group of customers And by
2019
DATE
they had about 10 1 million customers. Those
10 1 million
QUANTITY
customers were a huge success story for
Robin Hood
PERSON
but no one could have predicted its explosion after the arrival of COVID-19. Doors to the greatest extent
100%
PERCENT
of the non essential workforce must stay home. What we saw when the pandemic hit was the growth of
Robin Hood
PERSON
users absolutely turbo charged. Then they saw the absolute surge in
2020
DATE
in customer growth. And now by many accounts they have more than 20 1 million customers which is pretty extraordinary. So the next step for them is to figure out how to monetize those users and how even with their
How to monetize those users and how even with their small account sizes to get them to grow with the company and as it releases more Come along with them.
Robin Hood
PERSON
would become one of the COVID economies breakout successes
Robin Hood
PERSON
traders as their called became the short hand explanation for the frenzy of often speculative retail investing after the pandemic lockdowns Kids wake up in the morning they go on
Robinhood
ORG
they're you know in the shower they check
Robin Hood
PERSON
Kids are learning how to stock market works at
18
CARDINAL
while they're at school you know checking their phones and between classes because notifications pop up telling them what their stocks are doing
that day
DATE
. With these new tools millennials and gen Z are investing in the market in ways their parents could have never even dreamed of. Sort of key when we talk about the divide between older and younger generations is that the younger generation was exposed to so much more And tools at their disposal to do what they want in the market. The older generations, you never had the technology or the cost structure that you could play the markets like you can today. So, you were stuck with giving your money to a professional investor and paying them a fee. To do it Experience more so than anything else. You know if you could possibly shave
10 20 years
DATE
off your working life versus adding
5 years
DATE
I don't think you can fault people to that But
Robin Hood
PERSON
is only part of the puzzle. Sure you can trade on it but without research information and data, you're just blindly throwing darts at different stocks and hoping to strike it rich. Wall St forever his always run on what we now called narratives you know people telling rumors to each other a bit around for
100 years
DATE
On Wall St information is its own currency Either you had it or you did it and the people who had it had a huge advantage. Didn't have a network effect it would be one person telling another person over the phone In fact, when I broke into this business in
the 80s
DATE
, a lot of people used to complain that they weren't on the call list to get those ideas. Social media changed all of that. Fast forward to
2021
DATE
that's being done on the internet now and that's being done on discord and
Twitter
PERSON
and stock twitch in reddit and the impact is very similar but orders and orders is back to
two
CARDINAL
larger. Social media has played a bigger partner lives it's also played a bigger and kind of more important role in how people find investing ideas And on these platforms. Those ideas spread on
TikTok
ORG
. That
TikTok
ORG
. People aren't just going to at for sea shanty videos The personal finance hashtag on
TikTok
ORG
has garnered
three
CARDINAL
.
5 billion
CARDINAL
views from its
one 1 billion
MONEY
monthly
DATE
active users by comparison videos found under the cooking and health tips# have two. Six and two.
1 billion
CARDINAL
views respectively The trajectory of
Robin Hood
PERSON
and
TikTok
ORG
were What happened in the stock market
this week
DATE
? So the word of
the week
DATE
is expectations. Absolutely essential that you guys understand.
We're What happened in the stock market
this week
DATE
so the word of the week is expectations Absolutely essential that you guys understand the risks of shorting. Also known as
Finfluencers
ORG
. Care about fashion they care about culture but it's also like there's this big A lot of them are younger investors who are To hone their skills taken right up
Highwyn Kayla
ORG
are
two
CARDINAL
of the more let's say professional ticktock influencers. I've been treating since high school and it was a really interesting way for me to fill out my decision making frameworks and to think about thinking and I think that the more that we can have people You brought finance the better that we're going to progress as a society I think it's a huge gap that our educational system Option for stock you can just gonna go up it's a call To think about like this. And yet the options video where I was like options are just like shopping.
Rumor
PERSON
has it that this palace about to go in price. So if I come in
tomorrow
DATE
can I still buy it? It's a price. And
a ton
QUANTITY
of women. Just like attack that video and we're like will you explain things so much better than my boyfriend or
Faster
PERSON
or like I could sit and listen to you all day and I was like the this is what I was looking for. But
TikTok
ORG
's algorithm does not reward common measured videos about responsible investing. It rewards this. Video for
30 seconds
TIME
and you'll be rich for the rest of your I try not to say the A word the ALGO word Tiktok lessons to it Hey algorithm does impact how you feel you know you do notice which videos do better versus which How do you catch some of the pension in
less than 60 seconds
TIME
Nearly impossible to do that in
60 seconds
TIME
but the people who perfect it are the people that you're gonna watch and give us to stick around. And where people are sticking around read it and it's nearly countless subred it's about finance. And by far the biggest one of those is Wall St bets there's a lot of social media platforms out there but Reddit is like the social media platform for Finance places like
Wall St Beds
PERSON
is where it all goes down started in
January 2012
DATE
it Long before Wall St bets adopted a
four
CARDINAL
Chan like etiquette leading to their tagline like
410
CARDINAL
found a
bloomberg
PERSON
terminal. We had all these unexplained stockings and we would be grasping for a widestock
XYZ jump
ORG
20%
PERCENT
a day and you would look at Wall St Bats and you would see people there talking about buying options and that stock
Sort
PERSON
of. Wow, we have to start paying attention to this. Some people on the platform really spend tons of time and others are just looking for entertainment and to have a little bit of fun. Effectively gambling or looking for an outlet Trying to make a little bit of money. Then, on top of all of that, there were stimulus checks, no clearly this money is going to people who need to use that to eat, to live, but there's a lot of people who use this money to invest in the stock market. And it's not just stock tips people quote unquote yolo their entire life savings are stimulus checks on a single stock They post what is called Dane and
Los Porn
GPE
screen grabbing staggering hits and misses on stocks for the entire community to see I'm about to lose everything I want some of the people on Wall St that are novice investors. The community contains multitudes. In
one
CARDINAL
respect what it did show us among these network groups is they are very sophisticated. They're not a bunch of ignorant people talking to other ignorant people. And this is where the pieces of the puzzle All come together to read havoc on Wall St for a solid week in
early 2021
DATE
. Pretty clear that the combination of more people having retail brokerage accounts and treating apps and more people being stuck at home looking for some kind of entertainment and some kind of community online came together in this very singular way.
And more people being stuck at home looking for some kind of entertainment and some kind of community online came together in this very singular way. What came together is GameStop. Let's go back to the beginnings of what happened with GameStop cup with
years ago
DATE
A lot of people were talking about GameStop is being attractive value.
Kitty
ORG
is a perfect example of that. Compelling asymmetric opportunities in the market
today
DATE
. Really, I don't understand how you could disagree with that. At the same time, that this crowd was talking it up. The hedge fund institutional crowd didn't like this stock at all and it had the largest short interest of any stock in
the New York Stock Exchange
ORG
going into
late 2020
DATE
.
Sally
PERSON
is a bet that a stock price will fall and it's a fairly simple concept. An investor borrows a stock and then sells it the investor is betting on buying the stock back later for a lower price before returning it to the original owner pocketing the price difference Financial markets or they're at least looking for companies that aren't what they say they are and that can range anywhere from an outright fraud that some short sellers try to expose to just a company that's not worth as much Ambassadors think it is. Is if the stock price rises the short seller has to come up with the money to buy the stock back and the more rises the more it costs and that's what's called the short squeeze and the hedge fund
Melvin Capital
PERSON
was on the wrong end of that squeeze Just from being caught in the short squeeze of his stock The disruption comes in.
One
CARDINAL
of the most wild stories you're ever going to see GameStop shares absolutely going nuts in
less than a year
DATE
the company stock has jumped from
less than $three
MONEY
a share to
almost $350 Cheers Rory
MONEY
and
Kitty
ORG
has turned
$50 thousand
MONEY
or so investment into
some 14 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
. Investors all over social media use the free trading app
Robinhood
ORG
to wreak havoc on Wall St they're actually piling on into some of these stocks to really hurt the professional short sellers
Twitter
PERSON
,
TikTok
ORG
, and
Discord
GPE
to tell one another to keep buying and quote hold the line and not sell GameStop. People are getting cheerleaded for jumping in, buying at the highs, they're saying keep going. And it was working too until
Thursday
DATE
morning
TIME
the trading app robin hood sent out this tweet in light of
Volatility
ORG
. Angry.
Screw
CARDINAL
us But what we learned is that when people organize online they have the ability to disrupt the market. It was a big sign that ivory walls of institution artist powerful is maybe the institutions left them to be eight. I don't know something about GameStop was the best use of
billions of dollars
MONEY
but I think that as a signal to society it was pretty interesting The game stop saga was so impactful that both Vlad Teneb and Rory and
Kitty
ORG
were called into testify before
congress
ORG
to clarify each of their roles in the saga It's emerged from the congressional hearings is that they're interested in how retail brokerages make money and whether they're keeping the best interest of their customers in mind but it's pretty fuzzy as far as what they would actually do as a result.
As far as what they would actually do as a result. Frenzy around GameStop eventually subsided it didn't take long for retail investors to find other areas to invest their money take a look at Bitcoin going bananas over
the weekend
DATE
big one forms of brand new all-time high it was after date stop started to drop that we saw Really go up to over 60 1000. That doesn't rally have to run. It's compelling to say that money shifted from one venue to the other. While correlation doesn't equal causation there's a chart out there showing an inverse correlation on meme stocks going down and cryptocurrencies going up Definitely an aspect where people are making money on stocks and then moving, you know, they're agnostic. They're not hedge funds. They can invest forever the hell they want. It's a classic sort
Momentum
ORG
trades are going to wherever the winners are and they're willing to jump on and you know Ride it So whether it's meme stocks like GameStop meme coins like Dosh Coin or entirely new ways to invest in art like NFTs the new kind of retail investor is making its presence known over the next
Hen
GPE
maybe
15 years
DATE
you're going to continue to see whether by choice or by force that baton go from older generations to younger generations I don't think any single app is is going to be the thing that disrupts I think people are the disruptors Ideas about what to invest in has become increasingly entwined with social media and as social media companies govern more and more of our lives the fact that now Is something that we might wanna understand better. What disruption I think means is technology comes in whether it's blogs to the newspapers or online retailing to brick and mortar they come in and they're in the same business but they just do it in such a gigantic car savings that it causes everybody to switch. Well, The risk that happens here is that it's so much cheaper to just manage your own money. We're not there yet. But cost and conveniences are moving in that direction. So I'd say Wall St you haven't been disrupted. Yeah. But you could be in
the coming years
DATE
and at the final chapter on this story hasn't been written
Meet Bloomberg's
PERSON
own
David Nicholson
PERSON
. Now his happy place is out in the field On the open road But like the rest of the world lately he's been working from home a lot more than he's used to. COVID-19 has prompted a massive urban exodus as professionals of every ilk yearn for more space to live and work. As a result, rural areas have exploded and their poise to experience a resurgence as more and more families pack up and leave the big city to try out life in the burbs. But there's
one
CARDINAL
problem with that Not all internet speeds are created equal. Anyone who might need to upload or download large files for a living may not wanna pack up and move to that cabin in the woods just yet. Now David's house is in a cabin but it is in the woods and inexplicably his internet is workable. My internet is okay. I pay a lot for it. It's
around $140
MONEY
a month. The download speed's great The upload speed is terrible which is really bad for my work cuz I have to upload these massive files
$
140
MONEY
a month. The download speed's great The upload speed is terrible which is really bad for my work cuz I have to upload these massive files but I'm definitely one of the more lucky ones in this community. Just
a few miles
QUANTITY
down the road, my buddy has awful internet. Under
two
CARDINAL
down Under point due of though it's it's often unusable. It's around one And other times it'll drop down to
about.
CARDINAL
Two
CARDINAL
. Three. Able to do have internet at my house without having to go outside the Ways of acquiring internet. It's it's really frustrating. We're Hey A few miles away from downtown Anna just cuts off. Problem and the solutions are not there yet because getting high speed internet and rural areas on mass is something our providers may simply not be ready for If you're internet service doesn't have fast download and upload speeds then you don't have high speed harmony you have.
Americans
NORP
on average pay
about $70
MONEY
a month for internet at home but in rural areas it could cost a lot more for a lot less service so the pricing for a fixed wireless provider here can be something
between 80 and $150 About 25
QUANTITY
megabits per second. However, gigabit service which is
a 1000 megabytes
QUANTITY
per
second
ORDINAL
and symmetrical is running at
about 119 a month
DATE
or
130
CARDINAL
a month. That's
John Paul
PERSON
he co-owns spiral fiber an internet service provider here in
Nevada County
GPE
California
GPE
and for
the past 10 years
DATE
he's been trying to bring an affordable fiber optic network to town Started when you apply to be part of the pilot program for
google
ORG
's fiber service. End marching The internet
these days
DATE
is crucial to be in the world to be a part of the world and to be connected to your community. Ultimately went with
Kansas City
GPE
Missouri
GPE
which left paul on a mission to get funding to layout fibroctic networks for gigabit service Over
the next several years
DATE
he would attend conferences and pitch venture capitalists and apply for grants to make his vision come to life One of the biggest roadblocks to build the infrastructure for the internet here in
the United States
GPE
are the existing large providers. They have their landscaped out. They would prefer that nobody come in and compete against them
2013
DATE
we applied for a grant we went down and met with the commissioners at the
California
GPE
public utilities commission it was arguous process to get funded but we finally did against all odds we got a
16 1 million dollars
MONEY
grant and then we went out to seek venture capital Then in
March of 2020
DATE
the pandemic hit the world Everybody got locked down and everybody came home and everybody started using the internet and I remember seeing on one of the local fixed wireless providers websites they've said hey we know you're all staying home but please don't use too much video and please don't use too much band with an i thought that doesn't work The
US
GPE
connectivity gap is far greater compared to countries that are considered its peers economically some developing nations actually have better internet than rural
America
GPE
like in
Kenya
GPE
which has a state of the art Optic network fed in from their coastline. The
American
NORP
connectivity gap does largely affect rural areas that are either outside of service coverage or simply prohibitively expensive. This is Rebecca she and her family moved to
Nevada County
GPE
just
a couple miles
QUANTITY
down the road from David They took for granted that high speed internet would just exist in the area and it's not something they even bother to check on before buying their house. Turns out all they got was dial up. We wanted to move where we had a little more space, room for the kids to run around, you know, just be out in the mountains a little bit more. Having come from a bigger city area where
WiFi
PERSON
is pretty readily available. We had it really consider In our purchasing of the house whether that would be an option or not. When school started and now that we are remote learning with our children and we're
Oh we had it really considered that In our purchasing of the house whether that would be an option or not. When school started and now that we are remote learning with our children and we're doing everything from home We didn't have the option to do that at our house. So, every day when school would start, we'd have to pack the kids up and we'd go to my in-laws home. They have a little cabin up in this area that does have
WiFi
PERSON
already. Is the norm in rural
America
GPE
? According to data from
the federal communications commission
ORG
, just four% of urban
Americans
NORP
lack access to broadband internet. That's compared to
almost 40%
PERCENT
of people who Enroll areas while that was the case there were also racial and socioeconomic device in terms of who had that access. In addition to that geographic difference, low income
African American
NORP
students,
Latino
PERSON
students, and
first
ORDINAL
generation college students were more likely than others to have. Only one device at home that shared among For siblings and or lack access to that actual connection. For most
American
NORP
towns there's also a lack of competition Internet prices up in large providers like AT and T in Comcast aren't incentivized to expand service to these rural communities. Simple, easy, awesome. So, in our area, we have a small imprint of Comcast but they're not gonna go out to the more rural areas. It's just not cost effective for them to do it as a large company. In order to weigh fiber cable, you're actually physically digging trenches into the ground and for internet service providers, they're Primarily focused on maximizing their profits and so the fewer customers you have, you know, in any square mile and the more fiber you have to weigh, that's just kind of harder to pencil out from a purely economic standpoint. ATandT released a statement on the matter expressing the need and desire for government assistance to fund fiber optic expansion To areas deemed unprofitable. Comcast released a similar statement encouraging more public private collaboration on this effort. Federal agencies do offer grants to help communities build broadband networks but many have argued that there's not enough flexibility on how to use these funds. The COVID-19 relief package passed by
congress
ORG
in
March
DATE
and signed by President
Donald Trump
PERSON
awarded $
43
MONEY
.
3 million to 51
CARDINAL
projects on
the east coast
LOC
alone But it also stipulated that these projects needed to be up and running by
December 30
DATE
For contractors who plan projects
months
DATE
and
years
DATE
in advance it's a scramble to rearrange their schedules to meet that deadline. So what we've been asking the federal government to to consider is at least have as long as the projects are getting started knowing the projects are being put into place to expand both remote learning, working from home, and and the opportunities like that that are truly driven from COVID. We're moving as fast as we can regardless but hopefully they'll give us some more time. Talking to
john paul
PERSON
it's clear that he believes broadband is something that can transform a community and should be considered a public good. What are the
first
ORDINAL
communities to come on in
the United States
GPE
with full on gigabit service was
Chattanooga
NORP
Tennessee
GPE
Bigger city but there is city that was economically in a downturn. In
the last 15 years
DATE
the city of
Chattanooga
NORP
has turned around in an amazing way. It's a nexus for young people to move to. It's a place where technology happens. It's not just about logging on to
Zoom
PERSON
. You know that to connect with your colleagues who might be in
New York City
GPE
. Also your ability as a small business you know operating in the town of
Nevada City
GPE
or wherever it may be to you know quickly upload your Swipe a customer's credit card There's just some really basic business functions and mechanics that I think people in big cities really take for granted and that are just gonna be a much bigger challenge for small business owners
Areas
ORG
Hey Historically the marginalized people you call them as untouchables are they have been kept away from the center of the knowledge once you are born into a cast it is very Call for you to grow beyond that you are stuck in that identity. Yeah education is the best Way of liberating them so that's how I chose to work in education sector. The kind of education that we are giving to the marginalized people is going to change not just the fate of these communities in
Teleana
GPE
It is going to be the source of inspiration
Been
ORG
a source of hope All the marginalized in this country. Greatest flight in
India
GPE
is the system of cast. For generations of
Indians
NORP
the social code known as the car system has defined how people earn a living and whom they marry. Although outlawed
seven decades ago
DATE
cast remain a significant factor in deciding everything from family ties and cultural traditions to educational and economic opportunities. Darling people who are on the lowest run of the car system
Almost one fifth
CARDINAL
of
India
GPE
's population of
one. 3 billion
MONEY
. Not able to afford the high tuition of private schools many are forced to attend government funded institutions which in the past have suffered from poor infrastructure lower education standards and high student to teacher ratios But doctor
Pravien Kumar
PERSON
is trying to change that. Currently working as Head off the
Langana
ORG
social welfare residential schools. So, totally above
400
CARDINAL
schools I managed. These are all residential schools. For other students who are historically marginalized but talent Than poor. Hey Oh of them
60%
PERCENT
of girls and then
40%
PERCENT
above Girls are more marginalized among the marginalist they voices are always suppressed My approach to improve the conditions in the schools has been put your eyes and ears on the ground always talk to the Talk to the teachers, talk to the students, you know Stay the schools and then understand their problems they challenges both in classrooms and then the corridors and the domes then go to the dining halls and see what kind of food they're eating and then go to their homes and then what kind of What kind of challenges parents have What are the important changes that I brought in after i took over was to
Delete
GPE
the transformation of mother turn to
English
LANGUAGE
medium because
english
LANGUAGE
medium As I said
English
LANGUAGE
is the language of human situation And language of that connects you to the whole body of knowledge in the world. So we had to train a lot of teachers. Hey Identity is extremely important.
Hey how are you? Hi Identity is extremely important There is there is a scientific evidence to prove that you know you are since I've identity is extremely ah crucial to your growth as a successful In your life You for you accepting her identity which is very humiliating which reminds you of very painful past I think that identity will not help you to grow another time not saying that you should forget your past I'm not saying that but that should not be ah the bubble in which you must live always Hey Is an alternative identity S stands for state Stands for welfare. Aero. You and an arrow is swearo. So the idea is your dreams have to be sky bomb So, that is what we are trying to achieve by changing the identities like, you know, we say, I'm a swearer. And I aim to be a doctor. I am a swearer. I am to the top notch engineer. I am a swear To be a top bureaucrat of this country. I miss where I want to be a very good actor or you know, musician in this in a world. So, these are the positive images that are associate with identity. Just to give an example to you. See in
2012
DATE
Are you not institution we used to produce
about six
CARDINAL
doctors per year. But because of our you know this self celebrating ideology of seruism. We have
this year
DATE
we have produced
about 189
CARDINAL
This is phenomenal for any tourist of the food you know how difficult it is to get into a medical colleges in this country so but today ah because of this ideology the I've been able to achieve this you know
Understand
PERSON
?
Pujita
PERSON
is has been a form laborator. My parents, the angels are agriculture libraries and then this girl used to sell vegetables but thanks to the residential education institutions. She came to go to the D campus and then she toiled very hard For
1 year
DATE
despite you know many problems. And
today
DATE
I'm so happy to share with you that you know she is she has joined
One
CARDINAL
of the prestigious medical colleges in the state of
Calendana
ORG
. And future. She hopes to be a gynecologist So, this is the journey. Our children are hoping for us. Similarly the mountain is experiencing. I mount every
six
CARDINAL
person we were we are very fortunate enough to please History of this world. On the peak of Monteast How did this happen it's all because of an idea that helps you to liberate yourself. Lot of extra curricular activities and most of them got institution Now so for example music. Similarly the games we have so many is coaching academy her boxing academy we have a handball academy so we have you know covered traditional
Indian
NORP
sport we have goal we have entered is the gold fall so Generally played by so called rich people but
today
DATE
you import us of the poor people also are being trained in golf in our schools. Intention has been to give all 360ยฐ you know a type of opportunities to the students so that you know wherever is interested in whatever activity they can go and then do it Break the barriers
Break
PERSON
the fence at least mentally. Because the poor people have been programmed to be Program to be Subjugate. Program to be On the markets always To feel inferior. We want to
Subjugate Program
ORG
to be On the markets always To feel inferior. We wanted to change on that there are certain games which are exclusive to rich people There are certain languages which are exclusive to middle class and upper middle class in this country. To put it in one word The soul aim of reducing all these cocoa blood activities he's to break the
Stereotypes
PERSON
which are recklessly built on these people. Best stereotypes doctor
Kumar
PERSON
knows all too well Born a dallat his grandparents were laborous and access to the village well was restricted. Doctor
Kumar
PERSON
credits his parents belief in the power of education with helping him realize his aspirations. He went on to join the
Indian
NORP
police service attended
Harvard University
ORG
and then began pursuing educational reforms back home. I attribute whatever I am today it's to my mother primarily they educated me the village although there were no good schools so then I stayed in a social welfare hostel
Hostiles
PERSON
which are managed by government for the poorest of the poor kids. I passed with you know reasonably good grades than I went to university and then I faced worst form of In the university is like and there were you know in those days I'm talking about so the bathrooms and the you know toilets were Exclusive element for
Shelka
GPE
and she will try We used to fight this convention on one hand and then again you know try to excel in academics you Oh that's how I came to education because I deeply believe that
Education
ORG
is the only important weapon that can really you know place the poorest of the poor people From from a very victimhood orbit to prosperous habit. Think of being future this is going to be a game changer for the marginalized this country If you look at a thermal image of a city and then compare that to a map of vegetation you'll find that weather is greenery the temperature is lower. That's because things like asphalt concrete and shingled roofs absorb more heat from the sun than trees This is the urban heat island effect and it accounts for higher temperatures in cities often by
several degrees
QUANTITY
compared with their surroundings It's becoming a huge risk to human health as growing up in populations exacerbate the heating effects of climate change. Heatwaves kill more people than any other extreme weather event more than tornadoes hurricanes and even floods. That's why Urban
Heat Island
LOC
mitigation strategies are being studied in
Singapore
GPE
by a group of researchers. The government back project called
Cooling Singapore
PRODUCT
is now in the process of combining everything they've learned to create a digital tool that can help cities all over the world Starting would
Singapore
GPE
In
Singapore
GPE
close to the equator temperatures regularly rise above
32
CARDINAL
ยฐC or
90
CARDINAL
ยฐF And the city structures only make it worse. And that is also the keys for
Singapore
GPE
which is
2
CARDINAL
ยฐC or
90
CARDINAL
ยฐF And the city structures only make it worse. And that is also the keys for
Singapore
GPE
which is basically a concrete jungle, more urbanized, more developed city. Even in
Singapore
GPE
what you have is a situation whereby that's a temperature difference of
7
CARDINAL
ยฐC between the more urban eyes and the more rural areas The government has taken drastic steps to keep temperatures down. This is Gardens by the Bay an award winning park An inside this greenhouse is a pleasant
24
CARDINAL
ยฐ. That's because the dome along with
two dozen
CARDINAL
nearby towers full of
thousands
CARDINAL
of people is chilled by what's probably the world's largest underground district cooling system It uses a large central plant that cause water and then pipes it into banks residential towers and exhibition center shopping malls and the cities iconic marina bay sounds hotel in casino complex So one of the biggest pugs of using this system for the buildings is that they can save
40%
PERCENT
In terms of electricity usage Compare to your traditional air conditioners. I'm with
Singapore
GPE
relying on natural gas for most of its power. This new system means emission savings equivalent to removing
10 1000
CARDINAL
cars from the city's roads. That has big implications for the rest of the world if things stay as they are
more than a third
CARDINAL
of the world's electricity couldn't end up being used to call buildings and vehicles by
2050
DATE
As the world gets hotter gets warmer there is a greater need for air conditioning and as well as refrigerators for instance and the more people are buying these household appliances the more energy usage they they use and they release heat more and better Accessive bits It's a vicious circle And so since
2017
DATE
research is at cooling
Singapore
GPE
have been identified design solutions that reduce our need for so much cool air in the
first
ORDINAL
place.
One
CARDINAL
thing many cities have in common and as importance of education Very important measure to mitigate the heat because of the shading effect of course and deep psychological effects of the vegetation and also because of the possible
Operative Effect
ORG
of the vegetation. Can be of course on the ground floor Of trees and troughs and you can walk under them. This is the so called canopy layer that the vegetation forms above us. But vegetation can also go up to facades of buildings. And it can go to the roof of the buildings. Luckily
Singapore
GPE
has been striving for the garden city feel for quite some time. It was a vision initially introduced by them prime minister
Lee Quan Yu
PERSON
in
1967
DATE
to make life more pleasant for people and today
Singapore
GPE
is
one
CARDINAL
of the world's greenest cities in terms of urban vegetation. Campun admiralty the community center that contains health facilities and social spaces now provides more green space than the plot of land it was originally built on It's topped by a roofscape of staggered terraces covered in local plants which functions as a community park. And a village green in the center that contains farm plots for residents to tend to. Park royal on Pickering was designed as a hotel in a garden that doubled the green growing potential of its site. There's now
15 1000
CARDINAL
m of sky gardens reflecting pools waterfalls planter terraces and green walls. And the government has big plans as well.
Singapore
GPE
actually has a plan to plan
one 1 million
QUANTITY
trees and add more green spaces over
the next 10 years
DATE
. It is actually a mix of
one
CARDINAL
thing to reduce the urban heat island effect. But on the other hand is also to get the people to be more connected to nature. But it's not enough The city state has still been warming twice as quickly as the world average of the
But it's not enough. The city state has still been warming twice as quickly as the world average over
the past six decades
DATE
. That's why calling
Singapore
GPE
has developed a catalogue of other potential heat mitigation measures. When you try to mitigate your heat and effect in a city or in any building in a village as well the
first
ORDINAL
place to start is by shading The windows you have to keep Areas clear so that the wind can move through it water of a certain depth can act as a very good thermal buffer If you have to construct heavy buildings such as high rises, at least you can make the surface, the facade Less heavy and you can protect it from direct sun penetration you have to make sure that no combustion engines will be in the city in the middle and the medium to long term range so ideally the electricity production is outside of the And you bring just a clean City into the city. You cannot at least minimize the use of energy in the city and you can start to slowly convert the roofs, the facades of the city into Areas for renewable energy In
Singapore
GPE
unfortunately this is a limited option but in the long run it could produce up to
2025 percent
PERCENT
of the energy of the electricity needed in
Singapore
GPE
if all the roofs and the areas in the buildings on the buildings on the facades would be used to do that With so many different ideas cooling
Singapore
GPE
is also designing a virtual model of the city to test them out It's called a digital urban climate twin or duct that will calculate how each element of the city's design will impact the urban heat island effect. That means we model not only the geometry of the buildings digitally but also the model the transportation The insulation, the temperature, the radiation coming from the sun. The weather, the local weather, the local climate, the even very very microclimate of the city The water The movement of people in the city We can invent scenarios. We can design scenarios, test them before we actually built them and if they test very well and be assured that they will function, then, we can start to build them Put them into reality.
Singapore
GPE
will be using this new tool to figure out which actions it should take next. And the model can be applied to any city whether it needs to keep heat out or keep heat in which will ultimately save energy, slow climate change, and improve our quality of life. So this is something that
Singapore
GPE
will be able to export maybe even together With it's city development systems that it already has
Singapore
GPE
is
one
CARDINAL
of the very few cities in the world that really With a very well established redesign and design approach through its agencies and the combination of its agencies. It has achieved a lot in the past. If it keeps Going to scientific path and the combination The In the city already we think that it will be a very comfortable and very livable city in the future even more than today
Times
ORG
are tough. Jobs are scarce. It's risky to be outside and around others. Seems like there's very few ways to make extra money during a pandemic. So I guess I'll just hunker down and binge social media until this all blows over. Wait Don't these people make money? How do these people make money? Streamers,
YouTubers
ORG
, Twitch stars How do they make money? Is it a lot? Is it a lot of work? I know I gotta ask somebody in the biz and i got just the guy
Austin John
PERSON
plays. This is your full-time job now, right? As of
November of last year
DATE
, yes. This was always just kinda like a side thing. Like, any money that I made from My videos and whenever else I never touch that cuz I didn't really think of that as being like real money and then it started coming in more and more and then it would like I hit my first day that I broke a grand and I was like This is actually gonna be money How did the youtube channel come to be when the game
Pokemon sun
ORG
and moon came out for the threeDS there was like things that I learned about the game and then I I wanted to just share that information with people and at the time I didn't have any way to capture a screen or anything so I found like generic footage and I kinda put
Together
PERSON
with so much editing and that video got
six
CARDINAL
views. And then
2 days later
DATE
I made another one. And that
one
CARDINAL
got
12
CARDINAL
views and then I just started pumping out more and more content and people were like, this guy knows what he's talking about. It really just started building on top of itself and then it was like My channel really focuses on tips and tricks so I play a straight
18 hours
TIME
and I'll finish the game or get to
about the 40 hour
TIME
mark and then I'll make my first video While I'm going through a giant notepad and just scribbles everywhere and I make these notes of like the things that stumped me so I know the things that may stump other people. What do you need to think about if you're Or
YouTube
ORG
channel.
One
CARDINAL
, you need to do something that you're passionate about. Not that you like, not that you think you're gonna make money on something you're passionate about. Is other thing is something that other people are passionate about. It holds a special place to them. And
third
ORDINAL
is it needs to be something that people are gonna seek out information on. In order to enter into the marketplace you either need to be better than everyone else. You either need to be faster than everyone else or you need to be more accessible than everyone else. And you can't be more accessible cuz it's already on the platform granted if you understand how the algorithm works which is very similar to Google Analytics then yeah you can have a little bit of a head start but if you're not doing it faster and if you're not doing it better than everyone Why we shouldn't wanna watch our channel So, my income as a
YouTuber
ORG
, kinda breaks down to
three
CARDINAL
different ways.
One
CARDINAL
, which is the bulk of it which is add revenue. Whenever you go and you watch a video and then there's an ad and you wait
5 seconds
TIME
and hit the bottom right corner and then you go on to the next video or nonscapable ad or The video starts immediately get the little banner at the bottom or If you scroll down from the video the first thing that shows there is an ad those are the
four
CARDINAL
different types of ads that can appear on every single
YouTube
ORG
video All of them pay a certain amount. It varies on lots of things like the country A person who posted the country of the person who watches it
the time of year
DATE
where you are in
the quarter
DATE
if there's anything going on with A reduction in ad revenue like great example COVID-19 companies weren't as spending as much on advertising so because of that
CPM
ORG
went down
CPM State
ORG
.
Example COVID-19 We're just spending as much unadvertising so because of that
CPM
ORG
went down
CPM
ORG
stands for a click per 1000 using the Roman numeral for 1000 that means that for every
1000
CARDINAL
views you get a certain amount of money now on low ads when I first started off my
CPM
ORG
was
ยข30
GPE
. So every 1000 views I made ยข30. But then once I sign MCN and I started making more quality content and more engaging content some of my better videos and sermon times of the year I can see CPMs as high as 12 to
14 dollars
MONEY
And there's a big fluctuation between you know if I post a video when there's no ads being spent like
January
DATE
and
February
DATE
that's a reason I love your favorite
YouTubers
ORG
and also TV shows don't post new videos in
that time of year
DATE
cuz add rates are down why are they gonna make content that
Said
PERSON
you're recording and you're bulking up for when ad revenue is higher. The
second
ORDINAL
way that a
YouTuber
ORG
makes income is Crowdfunding things like that. When I first started off Patreon was really the only option but then they started rolling out supporters and members for
YouTube
ORG
channels. So, whenever I have a live stream, you can click a button and then you could become a member and then you get Special icons text your name I believe they're called batches or on any video you can hit the joint button and that helps support the channel And then the
third
ORDINAL
aspect to that would be merch. And for me, my merch has been somewhat basic. In fact, I'm wearing one of my T-shirts from
last year
DATE
right now. You have to endure the times that your
first
ORDINAL
video gets
six
CARDINAL
views. Then you post it on Reddit And they say shut up and then an automod bands you you have to go through that because until you go through that You discover why you're doing it. You're not doing it for other people. You're doing it for yourself. If you're not loving what you do, then it's not worth it. Hi So make a channel about something that I'm passionate about. I guess I can make the channel about that. Now how do I grow an audience How do I get popular? It's all about diversification, right? You have to have a massive
Twitter
PRODUCT
following. You have to have a massive
Instagram
ORG
following. You have to have a massive
YouTube
ORG
following of course you have to be on
Twitter
PERSON
which is the key platform book. Basically anyway you can get in front of your audience you can engage with your audience it is going to drive those clicks with ultimately drives the advertiser revenue that you get back from all of these platforms Playing video games and talking in a funny manner over them. They're not just people who are good at games. They're actually people who are good at online, engagement, online entertainment,
first
ORDINAL
and foremost. Anything you wear can and will be used against you in the
quarter
DATE
fashion. It's either Very talented at the game the best player in the game is generally going to draw a crowd cuz people like watching people who are very good on the other hand there either very very good or funny Charismatic, whatever it is on that side. Oh, no. You know becomes more of a show where they talk about other things outside of the gaming world and gaming becomes really just a backdrop and an excuse to engage with that audience. Weird like
Ronald McDonald
PERSON
looks straight to
VHS
ORG
movies remember those? I'm chatty I would kind of you know when boring things were happening the game I would ramble on about you know movies I'd watched or book side red on you know or conversations I'd had and stuff like that and so I think being personable was a big part of that. It's not just getting on and playing games. It's getting on and being an entertainer. You are putting on a show. Alright. Now, let me go ahead and grab the samurai sword that every gym has. Okay he's dead A larger audience and and to have that audience
Alright now let me go ahead and grab the samurai sword that every gym has. Okay he's dead. A larger audience and and to have that audience I think stay with you. You have to bring something extra. You know you have to find your niche. You have to find what works and what connects with the audience and I'm all make some laugh of what makes them keep coming back. Alright thrown a hanging bishop have everybody in suspense for a moment I think the real most important thing is is to just get used to being on camera like in any sort of performance thing is get used to talking on camera you know I my
first
ORDINAL
few videos were terrible but because I sat down and did
6 to 8 hours
TIME
a day I just got used to talking and I got over that uncomfortable hump. Go into
Twitch
NORP
purely with the expectation that you're going to make money, make a job out of it, have all this growth, and it's gonna be great. You're probably gonna burn out prior to getting to that point because there's very little payoff for a long time, right? Like,
Years
DATE
generally before you really start to see a payoff and so you know those
first
ORDINAL
few times you're streaming nobody is there one person shows up
every 30 minutes
TIME
says hi maybe and leaves right like Very Discouraging I think for a lot of people and so you have to be there just loving it you have to love talking to yourself when nobody is around you have to love just the game that you're playing all of that stuff because it takes a while and I think the a majority of people burn out prior to To the like profitable point of it And there you have it. My very own
YouTube
ORG
,
Twitch
ORG
,
Discord
GPE
, and streaming channels already to go live. It's available social media ecosystem just on the verge of thriving. So don't forget to smash like and subscribe and visit my Patreon for perks. Also, go to my merch page and
one
CARDINAL
last thing, Live stream shopping one of the hottest trends in
China
GPE
Every night
tens of millions
CARDINAL
of people watch live shows hosted by influencers like Via and by the products they recommend on e-commerce and social apps like
Taobo
GPE
and the ink the sister app of
TikTok Julie
WORK_OF_ART
and the guys have a call with a function. Not about, you know, only shopping. It's about the experience. It's about having fun. You gotta see threeD, you gotta see in some kind of action. It's almost like a theater act. The internet craze has taken over
China
GPE
by
the end of 2020
DATE
. The country had
almost 400 1 million
QUANTITY
live stream shopping users
China
GPE
's live stream e-commerce market has also grown dramatically With an estimated value of
161 1 billion dollars
MONEY
and
2020
DATE
. It's becoming popular outside
China
GPE
as well So is live streaming the future of shopping. Live streaming is not a new thing in
China
GPE
it started in
Live streaming is not a new thing. In
China
GPE
it started in
2015
DATE
with the roll out of fourG. First used for entertainment and socializing. Many live streamers perform for their followers or chatted to them making money by receiving virtual currency and gifts. In the west live streaming is mainly the going of avid gamers It's broken into e-commerce
China
GPE
you actually has a very big e-commerce empire so it uses these super apps what we call that you have payment you have search of information you have recommendation system and you have huge amount of goods available on the platform and as well as a lot of consumers With this advantage they merge these features of live streaming to make the influences actually so good here is a perfect choice nice neutrals beautiful prints nothing overwhelming and the warmth and comfort of flannel this is Traditional TV shows a
one
CARDINAL
way direction whereby a course introduces a product demonstrate so the things and say call this number or something Live stream shopping is live. Very, very big difference. They call us different psychology and live stream shopping is a very entertaining way of actually engaging someone else. When you shop actually this live streaming video will continue. It will minimize into a corner and you can like buy the items and pay all on the same app. After that the live streaming scream will just enlarge by itself and the promoter will come back to screen. So it's like very convenient How about one of
China
GPE
's biggest e-commerce platforms on tech giant
Alabama
GPE
added a live streaming function in
early 2016
DATE
? In
the following years
DATE
, other e-commerce and social platforms like
JD
PERSON
and
Doeing
GPE
also integrated this feature. Hey
Palisia
GPE
Over
70 1 billion dollars
MONEY
worth of goods was sold by a live stream on
Taupo in the years through March 2021
DATE
. Surveys show that
over 60%
PERCENT
of live stream uses in
China
GPE
will work in shopping shows and
over 65%
PERCENT
of them shopped at least once via live stream
2020
DATE
live stream shopping got a huge boost during the pandemic
Millions
CARDINAL
of people were in lockdown and many retailers were pushed online. People, you know, during the lockdown, felt like there's a need for more social interactions This live platform creates an interesting kind of environment that these people discuss that I'm actually interacting with you In a live stream shopping brings in a lot more variety of things that people could buy and satisfy you know that sense of control especially during the Add the heart of this craze are the top influencers who have
tens of millions
MONEY
of followers and support products worth
millions of dollars
MONEY
every night. The
afternoon
TIME
user stop power to get barkings from retailers Booster own south and influence. So everything about
China
GPE
's live streaming you have to know the king and queen of the influences the queen of live streaming via she is actually having the biggest viewership and the biggest Sales volume for a long time on top of our platform. She can sell everything from like
Gucci
PERSON
sunglasses, lipsticks, homes, and cars.
One
CARDINAL
time she offered her followers to go on a Tesla ride with her and she even for once. So, they rock you lunch in her live streaming room
40 1 million grand
QUANTITY
. The king More whitely known as lipsticks brother. He used to be a cosmetic sales before he turned into live streaming e-commerce and he knows a lot about the cosmetics. So, he's the one that we will actually put the lipsticks on himself when he's
Before he turned into live streaming e-commerce and he knows a lot about the cosmetics. So, he's the one that we will actually put the lipsticks on himself when he's on the show. Top live streamers like Via and
Lijati
GPE
have become celebrities in
China
GPE
and can earn
millions of dollars
MONEY
a year Although not everyone can be as popular mid ranking live streamers like
Tiffany Stewart
PERSON
and a good income through sales commissions. Show me an item Now A lot of successful livestreamers are generally very good at communication They're very good at articulating very simply what a product does what a product doesn't do in order for them to sell they need to be trustworthy and a peer trustworthy and they need to you know show in some ways they get authentic right so for able to articulate that quite a bit through the body language through what they say for example Ichachi Old. Guinness record for like the most lipstick applications to models in
a 30 seconds
TIME
So if you're able to create a lot of bus you're gonna interesting things that you do people who may not wanna buy lipsticks but also streaming just to watch what he does and then from there you might get hooked Live streamers also use cell techniques such as limited time or supply. Scarcity can often encourage viewers to buy. The platform in the
South
LOC
creates an enhancer some of these things but you see it live suddenly because social proof has taken over meaning that hey other people are interested other people are joining it has the people won the same product Oh I want this too. What happens then? It makes the whole product even more scarf. But it's not just influencers. Local farmers luxury brands even mutual funds have also started their own live stream shows. Working with very top tier live streamers can be it's not necessary that the benefits will end up with a brand so we'll see company executives opening their own shows and we see like
PNG
ORG
have their own Room which runs shows everyday as well. We also have like local governors in like small towns to sell their agricultural products. So, the live streaming is definitely transformed the way the owners can think about how to reach their consumers and enables a lot of players to actually sell The live stream shopping is going global merchants in
Southeast Asia
LOC
have embraced this trend. And in the west amazon has upgraded its live streaming function Interactive features like chat rooms. Companies including Google and Facebook also developing an investing in technologies to integrate video and e-commerce. If you do get the numbers You know that they can sell and you know that you know they can
January
DATE
revenue.
You know that you know they can
January
DATE
revenue Are they able to sustain it over a long period of time? It depends on how you know very they are at changing some of the things that they do. But you can't expect consumers
1 day
DATE
turn into virtual shopping for good. There will be the nature of us that crave to go into the store to touch the goods and actually wear it See how it looks like and walk around that with our friends and those things wouldn't be replaceable with live streaming. You could imagine
Oceans
NORP
are actually the largest battery We store in huge amounts of energy in the oceans. The way of motion can be very deep. It can extend down
several 100 metres
QUANTITY
. I want you to get to the near shore.
About 50
CARDINAL
m the whole water column is moving backwards and forwards. As we search for ways to reduce our lands on fossil fuels some are looking to a largely untapped potential source of renewable energy. In theory waves of the coast of
the United States
GPE
alone could generate over
two 1 trillion kilowatt
QUANTITY
hours
TIME
of electricity a year. Enough to power more than Of the country. Intensifying subside not as quickly as the wind and that means that it can produce a smoother power generation curve.
One
CARDINAL
of the potential advances of wave energy is that it could act as a complimentary source of power. Compared to other renewables on the grid if it was Scaled up to commercial scale. For
decades
DATE
engineers have been trying to convert wave energy into electricity. But a host of technological and financial challenges have complicated their efforts. In
the years
DATE
from
around 2006 to 2015
DATE
there were Bankruptcies in the sector and this was largely because of a lack of kind of continuous Proven projects out at sea with reliable electricity. She's generation. Since then companies have been trying to develop the technology but a steadier pace and with a smaller cash burn. But the same questions remain.
10
CARDINAL
companies developed devices and technologies that actually work
East
LOC
wave energy just a novelty or something that can become a major renewable energy source. The sea is about challenging environment within which to operate a car projects so see what is and conditions are very rough so this means that power projects don't have a very long lifetime and it increases operating and maintenance costs. Partly because of that many early wave energy projects hit rough waters such as the palamis wave energy convert it in
portugal
GPE
and the isla limpit project
Scotland
GPE
. Hasn't stopped others from trying. Companies are focused on testing projects out to see proving that your ability trying to raise And bring down cost the sector hasn't really converged around
one
CARDINAL
single technology design and Kind of undersized about which design works best.
Technology design and companies are kind of underside about which design works best.
Finland
GPE
based AW energy is a veteran in the sector. The
first
ORDINAL
proof of concept of the company's device was made in
the 90s
DATE
after
divernovasari
PERSON
observe the strong back and forth movement of a hatch cover in a shipwreck in the vol C the waves are generated far from the coastline so the wind blows on the on the surface of the water In the water particles to rotate And that rotation extends deep down below the surface and and the waves can be very long. It can be
several 100 metres
QUANTITY
long. Unless they come into the near shore this rotational energy Turns into an elliptical energy and eventually back and forth that you probably noticed if you've been swimming on the seashore in large waves your pulled in and out that's the energy that we're expecting but there's a sweet spot where we deploy so around 10 to 15 m of water depth that's where there's still strong wave energy coming in after Research prototyping and testing the company is deployed wave roller. A
350 kilowatt
QUANTITY
device in the waters of
Portugal Wave
ORG
roller has an
18
CARDINAL
m wide and
10
CARDINAL
m high steel panel fix to the sea bed via floatable foundation The panel moves back and forth with the waves capturing the energy. Tinder Of 15 m. So it's it's protected from the extreme waves. We celebrate electricity by capturing the Movement with hydraulic circuitry in a machine room underneath the surface That hydraulic energy we turn to electricity with hydrolycumulated and hydrolic motors and also generator. The wave roller has survived large waves at sea for over a year and delivered electricity via an underwater cable to the grid in
Portugal
GPE
meanwhile the company has won a
two
CARDINAL
. โฌ
5000000
MONEY
grant to work on an upgraded version of the wave roller aiming to increase the electric
Generation
LOC
capacity to
one megawatt
QUANTITY
the upscale device would have a bigger panel
two
CARDINAL
power take off units and improved software to control the energy production
Algorithm
LOC
that kind of tells us what kind of waves are coming in throughout device That gives us
a few seconds
TIME
to prepare For capturing more energy Difference in daddy's significant Our future plans are to Around the world. So I'm hoping we can be On on delivering technology to projects in
Asia
LOC
And and also in in the
American
NORP
continent as well. Is really company eco wave power is taking a different approach to capturing the power of the ocean For the company's founder in a brotherman developing new sources of renewable energy is a personal mission. I was born in
Ukraine
GPE
in
1986
DATE
And
2 weeks
DATE
after I was born that you're noble nuclear reactor exploded Causing the largest in history no clear disaster I was one of the babies that got hurt from the negative effects of such explosion i had the respiratory arrest and a clinical death. Luckily, my mother, a nurse, Save my life. I got a
second
ORDINAL
chance in life and decided to do something good with it. Growing up in a wanted to be a politician to positively change the world. After working as a translator at a renewable energy company she decided to change parts. Solar and wind energy were fully commercialized there were a lot of amazing technologies implemented everywhere I saw that wave energy although it's an immense source of electricity The biggest companies in the world are trying to develop wave energy with no success And there was kind of a race go
Any men's source of electricity the biggest companies in the world are trying to develop wave energy with no success and there was kind of a race going on in the world of who is the company that is going to develop a viable wave energy
First
ORDINAL
. In
2011
DATE
the then
24 year old
DATE
in a co founded eco wave power Instead of installing devices offshore the company's devices are attached to existing brake waters jetties and peers Our technology is very cost efficient especially in comparison to the offshore technologies because we don't need any ships, divers, underwater mouring, or cables. We install an existent man made structures and all our expensive equipment, the generator, the hydraulic conversion unit, the automation is located online just A regular power station. Since
2014
DATE
until
2020
DATE
. Here you can see how the technology works. Into land located accumulators
Hydro motor
ORG
which is turning the generators. Is controlled by smart automation system which you can see right here Above the water level and keeps them in the upward position until the storm passes. The company has been operating a
100 kilowatt
QUANTITY
grid connected device in
Gibralta
GPE
since
2016
DATE
. Which is enough to power
100
CARDINAL
households. Currently anyone her team are working on another
100 kilowatt
QUANTITY
project at the
Porter Jaffer
PERSON
in Televive The project will be also the
first
ORDINAL
time in the history of Israel that wave energy will officially connect to the electrical grid And our goal going forward is to expand it to all suitable break waters in the city of Television and to supply significant part of the city's electricity needs.
Today
DATE
engineers and entrepreneurs are still trying to crack wave energy. Globally only
a few 100
CARDINAL
kilots of wave energy are deployed compared with gigawatts of offshore wind. But the field has come a long way in
recent years
DATE
and with the right engineering solutions this new power source could eventually become competitive with more mature renewables like solar and wind. I would More confidence in the success wave energy companies
today
DATE
as opposed to like
20 years ago
DATE
but in
the next few years
DATE
or maybe
the next couple of decades
DATE
it it will be more likely to be used in remote locations like islands that are otherwise dependent on expensive diesel power or out at On gasting commissioning rigs or for powering underwater autonomous vehicles. So definitely wave energy can compete with other renewable energy sources but I personally believe that this is not a competition. In order to have a
100%
PERCENT
renewable energy friendly world we need all renewable energy sources to work together
Hey Number
four
CARDINAL
. Hey portal Hey Can you please tell me? Please wait You know, I've covered a lot of companies. I've covered a lot of
Maki Valleyan
ORG
companies You know, people play rough. I don't think I've ever seen anything on the scale that
Nissan
ORG
.
One
CARDINAL
of the most dramatic elements was
Revender Possi's
PERSON
home being raided by court officials in
Yokohama
GPE
. So
Rob
PERSON
's journey into the the darkest recess is The
Japanese
NORP
corporate world started when he was the general council the highest corporate lawyer position in the company In
the past few minutes
TIME
new song has revealed that it's chairman has been arrested after allegations of serious misconduct. He was tasked with investigating carlos go And hit he was told Internal investigation and get to the heart of the manner. And then along the way he started to notice serious conflicts of interest He is
one
CARDINAL
of the few people who knows an extreme amount of detail regarding the alleged crimes by
Pearl Scone
PERSON
and he's now ready to tell his own story on the record about some of the events that happened My name's
Ravinda Paci
FAC
I'm the former global general
council of Nissan Motoco Limited
ORG
and you could say yes I had a front row seat in terms of what was going on When
Carl
PERSON
is going save
Nissan
ORG
years ago he was depicted in
Japanese
NORP
comic books as this hero and and now maybe we'll see comic books where he's the villain. In corporate
Japan
GPE
a
Nissan
ORG
was quite an unusual company It was led for
two decades
DATE
by a
non-Japanese
NORP
executive
Will Carlos Gone
PERSON
was a hero in the
Japan Global
ORG
business celebrity in
Japan
GPE
in worldwide it was definitely
Carlo Scone
PERSON
. In a country with few foreigners at the top he stood out. Into
one
CARDINAL
of the most competitive in the world. He started thinking about legacy place and one of them was to really tighten the alliance between renew and
Japan
GPE
And unbe notes to him there was a contingent of senior
Nissan
ORG
executives that were really felt threatened by that move they really thought that they would lose complete control of the the the car company and even in the government there was probably a little bit of About a national champion In the auto industry falling under full blown foreign control
Carlos Gone
PERSON
was an auto industry.
Hey about a national champion in the auto industry following under full blown foreign control. Was an auto industry leader respected by many in
Japan
GPE
. Now, he's in jail. Of
Carlos Gone
PERSON
came completely out of the blue. This was in
November of 2018
DATE
. He was coming to
Japan
GPE
on
Nissan
ORG
's corporate jet for a regular executive meeting and he was met on the tarmac by
Japanese
NORP
authorities who whistom away to jail and charge With financial misconduct crimes So what happened was it a power struggle ensued inside the company Somewhere along the way it was criminalized By that I mean that there were allegations leveled at
Carlos Gone
PERSON
about the way he reported his pay to
Japanese
NORP
authorities the way he handled money inside the company that in other contacts might have been a board action might have been held handled
Internally Of
PERSON
executives at
Nissan
ORG
decided to take this this difference and take it over to the
Tokyo
GPE
prosecutors office and that unleashed a chain of events that would shake the entire auto industry So after
Carlos Gohen
PERSON
was arrested a
Nissan
ORG
launched an internal investigation The events that led up to his arrest. Survive Parcy with task Investigating carlos gone and he he was told get to the heart of the matter find out what
Carlo Stone
PERSON
did wrong and bring it to our shareholders Yeah it's really complicated because you had Things coming out of the weeds. Investigation has has started and we become
Aware
ORG
of matters in terms of conflicts actions by certain individuals That cause some concern Things might not Be what they seem. So, in our story, we really took a close look at horinata in his role in
Carlos Gones
PERSON
downfall.
Hurry Nardo
PERSON
is one of the most fascinating figures
Nissan
ORG
. He's also a lawyer. He's originally
Malaysian
NORP
. And he had a meteoric rise through the company
Became
ORG
very very close to
Carlo Scone
PERSON
and other top figures. He had a front row seat and all the major strategic deliberations at the at the company. And when he discovered that
Carlos Gone
PERSON
as his final legacy play was going to tighten the relationship between
Rano
LOC
and
Nissan
ORG
. He made a decision to go against
Carlos Scott
PERSON
and he became one of the key figures that decided At
Carlos Gonehead
PERSON
to go.
Harry Nardo
PERSON
was somebody who actually recruited me into the So I have a long standing Relationship with him or did have a long standing relationship with him. For for many many years he was a mentor. I don't support the credibility of the of the process right at the start. I really know that I had a plea deal With the
Tokyo
GPE
prosecutors. That suggests He was intrinsically involved in some of the wrong doing or the allegations of wrong doing It just
Smell
ORG
right. Just doesn't sit right. So there was a basic conflict of interest. In other words, Had to deliver results
Japanese
NORP
prosecutors to avoid his own criminal liability and he's accusing and leading the investigation of
Carlos Gone
PERSON
. Some of the people who had been involved in the original alleged crimes were also looking into the affairs themselves
Rovender
PERSON
began pointing out some of these conflict of interest issues and the reason
Crimes. We're also looking into the affairs themselves.
Rovender
PERSON
began pointing out some of these conflict of interest issues. And the reason for that is essentially his concern was for the company. If the company's own investigation into itself was compromised I could lead to a very weak position Various lawsuits that it was dealing with across the world. I'd discussions with
Harry
ORG
discussions about Start you through auditors about these conflicts, discussions with HR about some of these conflicts because at that point We reported into him. You know, at the time, everything was quite We've gotta do that. We've gotta move fast But when you step back and look at some of these things you just think my God What was going on here because Me Members of my team were being placed in immediate
Danger
PRODUCT
. You you're They both happen to be foreigners And now what we need to do we're being instructed to do is certain compliance professionals need to go into He's in
Brazil
GPE
for example and retrieve evidence. They've gotta do it very carefully because if they don't do it carefully they're gonna get convicted Criminal activities Unlikewise A team of lawyers will commission to go to
Lebanon
GPE
. I mean one of my immediate concerns was why are lawyers from
Nissan
ORG
being sent to go to
Lebanon
GPE
to retrieve evidence? These are just lawyers that corporate lawyers from
Nissan
ORG
. Revelations that a number of executives had benefited From share appreciation rights Substantive amounts of money being taken by these guys when they weren't entitled to take them And you do think yes. This code to look later on. So that triggered for me The sort of assessment that well I'm gonna have to do something Because Up until this point I haven't put down on paper These conflicts and these issues. So
Rob Posse
PERSON
makes a fateful move. He writes this letter to the board listing Read suspicion he has and great detail backed up by evidence backed up by
memos
PERSON
of why this internal investigation had serious problems. He sends a letter to the board and it's crickets. He doesn't hear much of anything Nothing happened that often Nothing at all. Just like it just gone into a black box. He began to suspect that there was a desire even at the highest level within
Nissan
ORG
to kind of sweep these conflicts of interest under the rug. Fortunately for me I think Again with hindsight People must have thought that this is the nail that's sticking out and we can't have this. Within
3 days
DATE
of me submitting that to the board of directors that letter to the independent board directors I was removed from the
Executive
ORG
conduct matters. Then told that I could not attend board meetings anymore. And up until that point I had attended every single board meeting.
And up until that point I had attended every single board meeting I was then also told that after
8 years
DATE
of being in
Japan
GPE
I'd be going back to the
UK
GPE
. Eventually transpired that I'd be the VP of projects in transformation managing a team of
three
CARDINAL
. So you can imagine what this feels like at this stage. Almost an arbitrary removal from
Japan
GPE
where I've lived for
8 years
DATE
had
three
CARDINAL
children there my family is grown up and we've been settled there
A few months early
DATE
been promoted to Vice President at a global level Moted So
Passi
PERSON
was essentially being reassigned to get him as far away from the internal investigation as possible and also to a certain extent in retaliation to some of the issues that he Up regarding the internal investigation and
Harinata
PERSON
. What happened to
Rob Posse
PERSON
can be seen as a series of of corporate humiliations. I mean,
first
ORDINAL
of all, his immediate responsibilities were taken away from a eventually he'd lost, you know, the COVID in general council title. But it didn't stop there. Toward the end of Hey, in
Japan
GPE
.
Ivan
PERSON
his wife were convinced that they were being followed
Ensuring
PERSON
that period Just that while striving my car Other cars following me.
First
ORDINAL
on my notice this was a round
mid March
DATE
And I was driving. I can't remember where I was going but this grey
van Small van
PERSON
just literally started following me On my notice there was somebody in the car taking pictures On.
Lo
PERSON
and behold, we were absolutely Being followed But either by people on foot Or other individuals
two
CARDINAL
or
three
CARDINAL
normally
two
CARDINAL
burly men in a car different cars at different times following us around They were following the family as well. You know given We'd seen Right scene the
Nissan
ORG
security department behaving a very very egregious manner with others in terms of following
Failing
ORG
. I was very concerned as to what they would do and who they were giving this information to. Because if they're giving this information The authorities you do think why What's going on here? I mean, this is just not normal. View. Rather dramatic event in
the middle of 2020
DATE
who are you people where
Nissan
ORG
had hired A legal team and had obtained an unusual court order from the district court in
Oklahoma
GPE
to basically do AA search and and of of his home and seizure of his you know corporate laptop On phone and other and other documents. If you don't let us in now, So it's a pretty extreme Treat someone who had spent
16 years
DATE
at the These people have all come in. We don't really know who they are. Apart from the fact that Shown a badge that says
the Oklahoma Court
ORG
. And they're here to to recover a laptop On the mobile phone. It was even more weird I'd highlighted to the directors That they're That certainness and executives were trying to recover this laptop and this phone whilst I was still in
Japan
GPE
. And I was very concerned because it had evidence on there that related to misconduct matters The forms of inappropriate conduct. It was just another form of intimidation another form of harassment. Forcing me almost to leave the company And the country Because once they'd retained an obtained visit.
Forcing me almost to leave the company And the country Because once they'd retained an obtained these items We were still followed Which again I just couldn't understand what Point of doing that. You know, this is AA car company. This is not the
KGB
ORG
. I think it's fair to say that
Rob Posse
PERSON
didn't have full battlefield awareness The entry going on at
Nissan
ORG
. I mean, hurry not as interesting because he's both charismatic and charming and one of the most brutal corporate in fighters that one could ever run across. You should not have this. Had fallen into line he would probably still have his job at
Nissan
ORG
be paid Very well and continued his work. A career that he spent, you know,
16 years
DATE
building at
Nissan
ORG
is is your retrievally broken. It's been smashed to
Smith
GPE
,
Smith
GPE
, or
Reigns
PERSON
. He and his family paid a huge price certainly But in terms of being able to sleep at night I think you know he's come out ahead. I highlighted issues To the highest levels of the company so that they could be dealt with appropriately by those in charge There was no response to those and there was retaliation against me. What's really profound like absolutely profound Is that None of you colleagues. I mean people who you have known for
years
DATE
. Forget it. Yeah. You're on your roof. And Yeah, you gotta be ready. Gotta be ready for that If you take it on anyway This is the awful truth Is always someone in the family that's pushing it. This lady Does not deserve to be taken Especially At your age with your own grandchild. Yeah. My grandma is having to sue them I'm testifying against them nobody's talking they're
one
CARDINAL
floor below right now I get afraid to go on the elevator it's sad that it
Testifying against them nobody's talking they're
one four
CARDINAL
below right now I get afraid to go on the elevator it's sad that it had to divolve to this. He said thing. Here's a family that on paper you would think has the wealth that so many people seek yet at
the end of the day
DATE
it's seem to sort of rip everybody apart How many names
Tomberg
PERSON
I'm a senior reporter here at
Bloomberg News
ORG
cover financial enforcement I was approached by someone close to the Sean
Stein
PERSON
family and asked whether or not I would be interested in writing about
Beverly Shottenstein
GPE
and this case that she had Against
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
. Was immediately clear that there was a great story here to be told. So, I started just, you know, assembling all sorts of documents that the family made available to me that included a diary that
Beverly
GPE
had begun writing when she started having suspicions about what was actually going on with her money. Beverly obtained her wealth from the Sean Steen had a retail empire that has AX included big lots value city
American
NORP
Eagle Outfitters
WORK_OF_ART
DSW shoes
Beverly
ORG
's husband died and at which point they sold off their portion of the company bringing them enormous amount of wealth and around
1990
DATE
Her grandson in
the late 2000's
DATE
had both graduated were becoming financial advisors she gave them a little bit to work with and over time Her grandson
Evan
PERSON
became the trustee of her entire state. Managing sort of family money is not a conflict. In fact, some ways in wealth management. It's kinda how you get your start. It's kinda the seed that you need to sort of get going in the business. But
Beverly
GPE
started having suspicions that something was wrong probably in
around 2016
DATE
. Well there were suspicious Things but take in separately without everyone talking about their own Is it was hard to really put it together Had written a check to her caretaker Dawn that bounced so she went down to her local chase branch to sort of find out what was going on she wasn't getting paper statements in the mail so she asked them to print out a number of her statements having to do with her checking And her credit card account. So we went to the bank and ask for the statements. And she got a whole year Going through all of them page by page by page. And it was there she saw all sorts of charges that she said she did not the rise or didn't know about I was becoming Very suspicious. I was starting to look in the money park and that's what bothered me more when I saw that money was going and I was not a big spender. It run the same time John she starts noticing
Beverly
ORG
's son who lived in the condominium below her came up with
Evan
PERSON
with a shredder and started grabbing papers in her office area including some with
JP Morgan
ORG
letterhead and just started sitting at the kitchen table just shredding documents over and over They came in
one morning
TIME
. They used to do it the bath. Through the backdoor. And they brought this treader inside And then they went in the drawers in the office and took all the papers And they start to doing it. Because I know you don't go round and get in destroying papers.
Beverly
ORG
said that they had done this many times before. She said to me you know Dawn i'm gonna write my feelings. In this black book. A diary and she start to write in each day she would write a little at a time. We're on
the holidays of 2018
DATE
the package had arrived the
FedEx
GPE
package and in it were material
At a time We're on
the holidays of 2018
DATE
the package had arrived the
FedEx
GPE
package and in it were materials about venture capital fund based out
the Cayman Islands Dawn
GPE
and some other family members take a look at this and they see that
Beverly
GPE
is designed up for this fund to the tune of a
One 1 million dollars
MONEY
over the course of
several years
DATE
. Really the beginning of it that was
Sort
PERSON
of the tip of the iceberg when it became That something was going on that my grandmother really wasn't aware of this funge You know,
Beverly
GPE
started to panic. She was got really upset and called, you know, JP
Morgan
PERSON
's headquarters in
New York
GPE
and ask for
Jamie Diamond
PERSON
. She said she was told someone would call her back. But she says that that never happened. She wrote a letter to
Evan
PERSON
and
Abby
PERSON
and in there, she she laid out a number of things that Concerning her on off the rise trading the checking account she had about a
one 1 million dollars
MONEY
worth of jewelry in a safe deposit box and that her son
Bobby
PERSON
had the key to that box and that that jewelry had gone missing all this was kinda packaged in this you know
five
CARDINAL
page handwritten A man and two will entrust. Narrative about why the joy was taken. The only truth we really know is that the jewelry is gone but why it happened? There have been a lot of different stories. You just don't take your mother's Wonderful things in hand it out. JP
Morgan
PERSON
to sees all activity on her account. Setting off a fire storm after that As soon as they got this email that there was a season assist and that she wanted to send her money and change brokerage firms they were actually vacationing
one four
QUANTITY
below downstairs through there right now the next day Beverly's in her her place a granddaughter still in in her place visiting Is there and up comes
Bobby kinda
PERSON
barging through the door and he's screaming about what was sent to the JP Morant they're now investigating now And he's furious takes his mother in sort of puts her into a chair gets pen and paper and she says physically forced her to write a retraction letter. Pushing me around. I'm I was really afraid to take her to the doctor And she did an X ray Vacation was in so much pain. To be changed. The phone number had to be changed. I really thought we were gonna have to hire guards to be outside just for protection. Oh, it was terrible. Beverly brought her case before the financial industry regulatory authorities usually known as Finra it took
several months
DATE
to hearings she sees all sorts of transactions that's going on
hundreds
CARDINAL
of them that she claims that she never knew about never We're making all sorts of trading on her account That was generating
millions of dollars
MONEY
in commissions for themselves in the bank yet she was not sort of getting any of the type of gains that you would expect sort of an
80 1 million dollars
MONEY
account in a bullish market to be able to get they issued a ruling entirely in her favor finding that her grandsons as well as JP
Morgan Reliable
ORG
for violating the misrepresenting themselves and they also found that the bank and her grandson
Evan
PERSON
reliable for elder abuse. Avi. They were fired from JP
Morgan
PERSON
. They issued an award of
about 19 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
. I reached out for comment and
J. P. Morgan
PERSON
emphasized that
Evan
PERSON
and Avi were no longer with the firm and that their actions do not represent the sort of values of the of the bank. I reached out to
Evan
PERSON
and
Abby
PERSON
, heard back from their lawyer That, you know, they disagree with, you know, the law and
Represent to sort of values of the of the bank. I reached out to
Evan
PERSON
and
Abby
PERSON
, heard back from their lawyer saying that, you know, they disagree with, you know, the law and the facts that Finra kind of used to decide the case against them and are seeing if they can have it withdrawn. Her son,
Bobby
PERSON
, Criminals Admits to taking her jewelry and he says he needed it to pay off some bad business debts he had They never once came up to say i'm sorry.
Bin
PERSON
and apology and some acceptance And and asking for forgiveness from my grandmother i don't think we'd be in the position that we are now. Since a piece came out we've you know we received
dozens
CARDINAL
of messages from people many of whom are telling their own sort of personal tales of Financial advisors gone bad or family members who got control of in a state and abused you know those within Seems sad it's it's really resonated with a lot of people who I Keep you know hearing a lot of feedback about Beverly and how you know a lot of people feel she did the right thing. To stand up for yourself and try to write an injustice she was adamant that she wanted to stand up for herself but at
the end of the day
DATE
They did wrong It's a painful life lesson. You know Beverly taught them that you don't mess with grandma.
April 20
DATE
oil markets did something that never had before and they crashed went into negative territory and closed
the day
DATE
at
minus $40
MONEY
meanwhile In a place called The group of
nine
CARDINAL
traders led by a guy called cuddlers made
660 1 million dollars
MONEY
over the course of
a couple of hours
TIME
Has collapsed to a record low. We've never really seen anything like it. WTI this morning down
more than 35%
PERCENT
. The all price went to minus 38 it went far lower than anyone had expected and so lots of people on the market were saying well hang on something else is going on here
A couple of months later
DATE
I started to get wind through a kind of network of sources that a tiny firm in their outskirts of
London
GPE
had made a huge amount of money
that day
DATE
and potentially had some part to play and what happened? The information we got was the
nine
CARDINAL
traders of
Vega Capital London
ORG
had made in the region of
660 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
1 day
DATE
as a group I think they made as much money in
1 day
DATE
as
Apple
ORG
makes from its international sales
1 day
DATE
. I mean, it's
an insane summer month
DATE
. Did they pull off a fantastic trade? Did they predict the way the market was moving and get it absolutely right? Or was there something else going on and had they actually And that investigation is is ongoing. So
Paul Commons
ORG
is a trader who cut his teeth in in the pits in the the
80s
DATE
and 90s when everyone had a nickname his was cuddles If you can imagine that was a very Type of world where people are doing, you know,
hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars
CARDINAL
trades by
If you could imagine that was a very sort of
Throw
GPE
type of world where people are doing you know
hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars
CARDINAL
trades by shouting at each other Giving hand signals and then scrolling on scraps of paper The culture of the trading pits in
London
GPE
was very influenced by the working class guys who became traders there. They weren't like the city bankers that had gone before them. They weren't usually
Oxford
ORG
or
Cambridge
GPE
. You know they didn't wear saddle rows suits. They were ordinary working guys. You happen to have a talent for trading. And Came from Essex. Think it was
400
CARDINAL
traders in the pits and cuddles in his you know all in gas pair was described to us as amongst the top
three
CARDINAL
among you know in amongst that was very successful and and made you know very large amounts of money as it as a young man but you know inev
Mechanization
PRODUCT
and the arrival of electronic markets was the kind of death now for the pits and in
2005
DATE
the
IPE
ORG
closed down and when the pit shutdown a lot of the traders who worked there lost their jobs or quits or went to work financially institutions but
Paul
PERSON
comments decided to start his own Some of them are ex pit guys cut from the same cloth as him lots of them are actually sort of in their
20s
ORDINAL
and they're he's you know drinking buddies son or there he's own kids friends from football you know they're they're young lads
Hungry
GPE
and ambitious and he brings them into the fold and fairly shortly he's got you know maybe
a dozen or
CARDINAL
so They're independent. Let's be clear but they're all part of this collective. Yeah let I'll let Liam do with Essex I am from Essex so I feel like I'm free to you know to get to this sweet as they say. If you want to ask someone in
Britain
GPE
how they would imagine AA conversics person they would see someone who's maybe slightly flamboyant with a cockney accent You know not afraid to splash the cash but it's probably pretty bright and it's done well for themselves. But you know these guys they drove around Places like Mar Bay Area on holiday Fading boys is very wealthy place. You have to have considerable income to be able to afford to live in that village. It's a really nice place to live. And it's
20 minutes
TIME
to cheap ride away from the city.
Earlier in the summer
TIME
we have this lead which is that there's this tiny firm called
Vega Capital London
ORG
and they were the biggest winners from the biggest oil crash in history you know anyone that covers markets is gonna be surprised about that you Thinking your BPs of the world or your
Glen
PERSON
cause but is this tiny firm and
one
CARDINAL
of the big challenges that we had was actually finding out who worked with
Vega Capital
PERSON
. It wasn't immediately obvious. No
first
ORDINAL
we had absolutely no idea. If you go to
the Vega Capital
ORG
website it says it's under construction. If you do basic online searching it's very difficult to find anyone who's publicly connected. It's the So inevitably we're incredibly curious at this point like who the hell are these people? The more reporting we did the more it became clear that this group were connected socially as well as professionally. They went to weddings together. They played golf together. They would go on holiday together. We found out that a number of them were members over the West Ham supporters club in
London
GPE
. A few Started companies together so you could see all the connections between them and start to see a distinct group emerging Just was this kind of shock that you know this wasn't just like a hedge fund or a firm you'd never heard of. This was actually a group of buddies who all had the same experience on
this day
DATE
and it had all made a huge amount of money. So if you're an oil trader there's a number of different ways you can trade and and probably the most popular is WTI futures contracts and it's basically a contract that says I'm gonna buy
a 1000 barrels
QUANTITY
of oil from you at this point in the future or I'm going to sell a 1000 barrels of oil to you At this point in the future. It's actually just a financial contract to gamble on to predict whether oil is gonna go up or down.
Boil to you at this point in the future. It's actually just a financial contract to gamble on to predict whether or is gonna go up or down On
the 20th of April
DATE
in Essex Signals for a while that this was gonna be
an exceptional day
DATE
in oil markets and we know that some of them arose early and started their trading in
the early hours of the morning
TIME
while it was still dark outside. Essentially what they were doing is buying contracts that gave them an obligation to buy oil at whatever the price ended up at
2:30 PM
TIME
. So they're basically placing a bed that oil's gonna fall throughout
the day
DATE
. But they're simultaneously selling lots of oil as well. And the weather they make a profit and how much profit they make is the difference between what they buy the oil for and what they sell the oil for. Now of course we now know throughout
April 20
DATE
the price dropped and dropped. So this is going very well for them You know they are committed to selling oil at these prices and the prices are continuing to fall which means they're gonna be into offset it and buy oil at cheaper at
the end of the day
DATE
. Now once it gets to
kinda
GPE
1:32 PM
TIME
: that's when things start to get really interesting. Suddenly there's a kind of influx of of buyers and sellers you know desperation increases in the market and trading volumes go up now
2:08 PM
TIME
: exactly something bazaar and unprecedented happened The oil passes into negative territory and it fell to a record level of
minus $38
MONEY
. We've never seen anything like it period in terms of the contraction of the global economy. Huge golf between what they were buying the oil for what they were selling it for enable them to make more money than they ever thought possible. So they're profit was the difference between Minus 37 and all of these positive numbers on every contract they sold. The price of crude briefly hit
minus $37
MONEY
a barrel. For
one
CARDINAL
group of traders operating from a small office, it was a very very profitable day. It's important to remember this this had never happened before in the history of all trading. No one could have predicted it. I can't think of another example of where Interest rate or you get paid on both side. You get paid both to sell
One
CARDINAL
thing we know about the cuddles trading arcade is that they were very comfortable taking large risks and you know you have to be clear this was a large risk. Yeah we spoke to oil traders both people that know these guys and people that don't and they also say that this is you know incredibly risky and that's Stops a lot of all traders doing trading like this. They simply aren't willing to stomach the risk. But cuddles in his friends' work. So when they're kind of final calculations came down the group of the
nine
CARDINAL
most profitable traders made
660 1 million dollars
MONEY
or thereabouts between them I mean if you can imagine I think
three
CARDINAL
or
four
CARDINAL
of them made in excessive
100 1 million
QUANTITY
each Wanna be astonishing things about this trade is that
two
CARDINAL
of the individuals who made
more than 100 1 million dollars
CARDINAL
in
a single day
DATE
We're in their 20s.
One
CARDINAL
of them was
22 years old
DATE
. You know,
only a few years earlier
DATE
, he'd been posting on his social media about doing teenage stuff with his mates in town and going to see girls and rap music and here he is
a few years later
DATE
making one
One 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
a single day's
DATE
trading. When me and
Liam
PERSON
discovered that we were just we couldn't believe it. We couldn't believe what we were seeing. All trading is a is a oh sum game anytime you're making money is an all trade as someone else is losing it amongst the biggest losers were the investors in this
Chinese
NORP
fund crude oil treasure fund There were
thousands
CARDINAL
of them and they lost everything. Lots of people have put their savings into oil funds. They lost money
that day
DATE
. Big banks and brokers who sort of stand in the middle of trading parties. They lost money
that day
DATE
. And another interesting thing is the oil producing countries like Q eight or
Canada
GPE
. They sell oil. An average of the WTI closing price over
the proceeding month
DATE
. So the fact that one of those numbers in the average was minus 37 meant if you can imagine countries like
Saudi Arabian
NORP
Q
eight
CARDINAL
potentially lost
a couple of dollars
MONEY
on every single barrel of all they sold
that month
DATE
. Burger capitals traders may touch an extraordinary sum of money that
Dollars on every single barrel of all they sold
that month
DATE
.
Vega Capital's
ORG
traders made such an extraordinary sum of money that it was inevitable they would be some scrutiny of what they did but it wasn't just the sums of money they made in a vital half an hour before the settlement price was set They were by far the biggest sellers of all futures in the market which is an incredible thing to think about when you consider the the other participants in that whole market are gonna be the world's biggest banks you know oil majors
BP
ORG
and shell and here you have a group of
nine
CARDINAL
guys in Essex who are having a significant influence over a global market for oil These guys have made
seven 1 million
QUANTITY
or
10 1 million dollars
MONEY
they probably would be celebrating in Essex right now but the fact that they made closer to
700 1 million
QUANTITY
has meant that Are facing understandable scrutiny. We wrote individually to all the all the bega traders who did exceptionally well
that day
DATE
and we got a letter and response from a law firm who representing the group The law firm was at pains to point out
number one
CARDINAL
they haven't been accused of any wrong doing That they all traded independently and separately and they'd basically all made up their own minds that this was what was going to happen in oil markets based on publicly available knowledge and decided to execute this trade. What I love about these stories is there's a real variance of opinion and some people will look at what happened and think that must be dodgy. They all traded at
the end of the day
DATE
. They all made a huge amount of money while all these people lost. That's shocking. But lots of Will say these guys are acute disadvantage. They're in a market that's inhabited by, you know, huge Driven And firms and oil giants that have got all the advantages in the world and when you get a bunch of Essex geezers who essentially beat the market and find a way to make a huge amount of money they should get a pat on the back really because that's the dream. Since this happened a lot of the guys have stopped trading the
monthly
DATE
settlements that they've done so well out in the past several of them have set up new companies they've essentially gone very quiet you Social media presence they had is
Kinda
GPE
close down by all accounts there Waiting this out. It's certainly too early to try and predict how the regulatory investigations are gonna pan out you know we just don't know There's a number of potential outcomes for these guys. You know, potential punishments if there are any findings of manipulation against
Vega
PERSON
or anyone affiliated with it, might be you could be fined, you could be banned from trading, You know in the most extreme cases there have even been criminal prosecutions in the past Of people who have been found to have been manipulating the settlement
Misconduct
ORG
related to to trade it settlement. There are the outcomes too. You know one
one
CARDINAL
obvious one is gonna be they're able to walk away from this life changing trade with all the money that they made and celebrated as heroes in the trading community that you know they'll go down as legends. It's very important given that nature of the climate crisis right now for the general public to have an understanding of what progress is or is not actually happening and I think many readers right Big bold climate claims And they would be forgiven to think that Were well on our way to meeting the emission reduction trajectory
And they would be forgiven to think that Well on our way to meeting the emission reduction We need to be on. A reason for this sort of disconnect is the use of offsets that aren't doing what they claim to be doing We have a massive potential for sort of willful blindness. We can convince ourselves of things regardless of what the facts are. And so that's what tends to happen in these cases. It's not that it's not that anybody is setting out to commit climate fraud. They they sort of walk themselves into a situation and they convince themselves of
one
CARDINAL
thing and that allows them to convince themselves of another thing but at
the end of the day
DATE
they're doing something that makes My name is
Ben Elgin
PERSON
I wrote the story about how the
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
market for carbon offsets is setting back the fight against climate change. So
one
CARDINAL
of the challenges in reporting on carbon offsets and trying to figure out what's going on is really finding good experts who who have been steeped in this marketplace and are willing to candidly talk about it
One
CARDINAL
of the best people for this is a fellow named
Mark Trexler
PERSON
and I've been talking to him for
more than a decade
DATE
. My name is
Mark Krexler
PERSON
. I've worked in climate change for
the last 30 years
DATE
. I was actually hired by
the World Resources Institute
ORG
in
Washington
GPE
to work on the
first
ORDINAL
carbon offset project in
1988
DATE
. In terms of defining a carbon offset that
one
CARDINAL
of the beauties so to speak of greenhouse gases sort of the silver lining of greenhouse gases Atmosphere it can be anywhere in the planet in
7 days
DATE
. And therefore, you know, if there's an option to reduce emissions on the other side of the planet and you can do that very cheaply as compared to doing it in your factory, for example, then, why not pay To reduce their emissions. Then you are in a sense of setting your emissions and the atmosphere doesn't really see your emissions anymore. So carbon offsets have been been around for quite some time and they're actually key with these international climate agreements such as the
Keoto
PERSON
protocol which mandated the wealthies
Reduce
PERSON
their greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty was signed on
the 11th of December 1997
DATE
. A business community it in general saw a carbon offsets as a huge opportunity to comply with whatever policies and measures might be coming down the pike on climate change much more cost effectively We've seen a huge surge in companies making big proclamations about how they're going carbon neutral or oh in out all of their carbon emission We're going to reduce our carbon footprint to net oh. Committing oh initiative. Dramatically reduced emissions and we noticed so many of these companies were using carbon offsets to to to achieve these. And as we begin to look at the carbon offset projects themselves We found is that the environmental benefits claimed by these companies are not actually what they what they seem to be. As we sort of saw and spotted a number of these very aggressive carbon offset projects which appeared to be generating inflated credits or bogus We saw a number of them were associated with the nature conservancy. This surprised us. The nature conservancy is the world's biggest environmental group. They have about a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
a year in revenues. And they've been around for
seven decades
DATE
They've preserved
about 125 1 million acres
QUANTITY
of land They've done so many good works over
the years
DATE
and they've been very strong in terms of working with corporate partners. The nature conservancy is taken a different approach a very pragmatic
The nature conservancy is taken a different approach. A very pragmatic and pro business approach. They will not go out and criticize a big polluter but they're very happy to work with them. Some might say that well that's selling out but others would say and and those at the nature conservancy would say these companies have deep pockets. They can help fund important preservation work We have absolutely no problem working with them on this stuff So companies are very warm and and they've partnered with a nature conservancy for for many years And yeah definitely lens a sheen of credibility to these projects. Here is
Tony Mary
PERSON
.
This year
DATE
. If you look at for instance Disney that's a sprawling company with theme parks and and cruise lines that burn up Diesel fuel. They have office buildings and television studios. I consume electricity. So these companies are trying to make major major reductions in their carbon footprints but it's very difficult to change these fundamental ways their businesses operate So disney has been a big buyer of carbon offsets that are orchestrated by the nature conservancy
One
CARDINAL
of the projects that they buy from is called
Pennsylvania Ridges
ORG
. And that's a plot of land. Most of the land is actually
about 3 hour
TIME
drive outside of
Philadelphia
GPE
. Interestingly this land 3000 of these acres was actually acquired by the nature conservancy in
the late 1990's
DATE
This land was imminently threatened. There was a pending logging contract on this land. So, they they do what they they've done so well for all of these years which is they go out. They raise money from local phantopists and they go buy this land to protect it from developers and logger And at the time according to an archive version of the nature conservancy's They when they were proudly announcing this deal they said these threats have been abated because of Acquisition by the nature conservancy. So, it's really interesting now. Fast forward
two decades to earlier this year
DATE
when they put forward this carbon project And if you look through it this land is a key part of that carbon project And what they're now saying is this land is now once again imminently threatened
72%
PERCENT
of the trees are gonna be cut within
5 years
DATE
Now this is just astounding because this land is owned by the nature conservancy. They do not clear cut land that they've bought through philanthropic donations. Scenario that they've put forward to get carbon revenues is not really plausible And what that means is when you have Disney coming in and buying these credits. When it eventually lowers its carbon footprint because of these credits well that won't be incredible or truthful claim by
Disney
ORG
. So this is this is an organization that truly understands the the threat of the issue of of climate change and is wanting to do its part to address this However, in this situation, it just appears their their drive which they've had for
decades
DATE
to increase the amount of revenues that it can use for land preservation work Nature conservancy and many others see that the carbon credits as a pot of money that they can tap into to further their own benevolent aims but unfortunately what this has resulted in is claims of climate progress that just aren't really happening So, the nature conservancy defends vigorously these deals and and they and and others will say, look, our projects are just following the rules that these registry So someone also put some of the blame on the registries themselves because they're setting up the rules which allow these vapored projects to get up and sold. So we've reached out to all of the companies we mentioned in the story including Disney that didn't want to be interviewed for the story but they And those experts they say are these carbon
They didn't want to be interviewed for this story but they all told us that look we have to rely on the experts out there and those experts they say are these carbon registries that have been set up. Most of these nature conservancy deals are set up and sold on this exchange. It's called
the American Carbon Registry
ORG
. Now it's the oldest of these registries Allow voluntary carbon credits to be sold. They've been around since
1996
DATE
. What these offset registries do is they set up rules and any carbon offset project has to follow those rules But there's this tension that's always there if Rules that attract projects but they don't want it to be so strict where it will disincentivize projects from getting listed.
One
CARDINAL
of the the challenges with with designing carbon onset systems is that there are normally
two
CARDINAL
people The table. Make a lot of things happen Both of them sort of want the same thing or they're both happy with the same thing. They're happy with low cost, offsets, and a lot of the Because that works for their business model You end up though with nobody really representing the atmosphere So to speak nobody's really representing the climate In those discussions and so the policies end up by using the whole system. And and you you end up in sort of a race to the bottom and that's what we've seen happen. You know when it comes specifically to the topic of carbon offsets I am a fan of carbon offsets in the sense that they can help me to get climate change. They absolutely can. Bye. Climate change then it's nothing but a distraction And you know, after
30 years
DATE
, you have to start wondering, is it really just a distraction? And that's really unfortunate but that's where we are. Ultimately, what needs to be, what needs to happen is systemic change. You know, we're we're sort of nibbling around the edges with some of these different things. We need to change how we produce energy. We need to change how we transport ourselves. We need to change what and how we eat. We need systemic change Associated with transitioning to a low carbon economy. A lot of what we're doing
today
DATE
is not promoting systemic change it's sort of trying to stick your your your thumb in the dike To preserve the current system And and at the end of the day that can't really
The hyperloop. There's a good chance you've heard the name by now. This is the hyperloop system. It can take people
hundreds of miles
QUANTITY
in
minutes
TIME
. A series of tubes that would transport people in pods and ultra high speeds over long distances. Transportation that can whisk people from city to city in a flash
Minutes
FAC
from
new york
GPE
to
DC
GPE
30 minutes
TIME
from
LA
GPE
to
San Francisco
GPE
For
years
DATE
we've been seeing these futuristic utopian renderings of some cross between a spaceship and a monogram But lately the hyperloop is becoming much more real. Writing down a track in something that was nothing more than a crazy idea
6 years
DATE
before. Companies all around the world have been developing and testing the technology needed to propel passengers speeds of over 1000 km per hour. But for many, speed is only the
first
ORDINAL
step to unlocking the full transformational effects of a new mode of transportation. Fast is what we just sort of take for granted in
the High Volute World
ORG
. It's the network effects that really deliver the benefit. And that opens up a completely different scale of economic We've got plans Boats we're getting around earth. What if there was
a foot
QUANTITY
mode? And I have a name for it. Name for it which is called the hyperloop. Hyperloop? Hyperloop? Yeah. In
2013
DATE
while riding high on the growing success of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Mosque released a white paper outlining the basic framework of the technology he called hyperloop. The basic idea goes a little something like this. A tube reduces the air pressure to a near vacuum like environment. A hyperloop pod is then suspended in the tube. Usually by magnetic levitation. The whole pod can then be propelled forward Because there's no traditional friction sources like air resistance or rolling friction that would push back against the pot Is able to move it incredibly high speeds and do so fairly efficiently. Despite its futuristic name however the general concept behind hyperloop is actually pretty old. In fact
New York City's
GPE
first
ORDINAL
attempt at an underground public transit system in
1870
DATE
's was based on a similar principle. The pneumatic transit system was short lived however only stretching
one
CARDINAL
block and topping out at a rather leisurely
10 mph
QUANTITY
. While
Elon
ORG
would make
some 21st century
DATE
improvements to this concept and bestow over
a 21st century
DATE
name. He wouldn't end up pursuing the technology itself. Likely to focus his efforts on something a little bit deeper. Digging the rack was it tunnels by his boring company It would take another billionaire industrialist to dabble some space flight No, wait, not that one. Yeah, that's the one After
Richard Branson
PERSON
would make a large investment in the company hyperloop one it would be renamed to virgin hyperloop Has been trying to do as a company Couple of years not
the next 20 years
DATE
.
Josh Geigel
PERSON
is the co-founder and CEO of
Virgin Hyperloop
PERSON
In a familiar tech startup story he's seen the project go from a garage to a large scale testing facility outside of
Las Vegas
GPE
So, we started building the
first
ORDINAL
kind of hyperloop system in
2016
DATE
. We've done a lot of work
about 500
CARDINAL
tests that we've done a matter of
the last 5 years
DATE
Take that technology show that it can be commercial so drive the cost down improve the efficiency approval performance but the key thing is you know is actually making it approachable and safe for individuals. In order to do that,
Josh
PERSON
, along with virgin's head of passenger experience, sara
Lucia
PERSON
bravely volunteered to take the inaugural
For individuals. In order to do that
Josh
PERSON
along with
Virgin
PERSON
's head of passenger experience saraluchi bravely volunteered to take the inaugural ride With her and I were realizing it's like we're the
first
ORDINAL
two
CARDINAL
people sitting in a hype room the only type of people that have gone through this environment or in space it's in there we are in just like normal clothes because of the system the safety of what we designed really
Two Watch
PERSON
and then once we started going you felt a bit of acceleration we accelerated a little bit harder than we would in commercial be like a sports car. We got
about 108
CARDINAL
mi an hour on that test and it's a short run it's
about 500 yards
QUANTITY
or so Came to a stop Lasting
only about 20 seconds
TIME
and covering only a quarter per mile at
just over 100 mph
QUANTITY
is a long way away from a true functioning hyperloop but as for optics it's a crucial step for the future funding. Number
one
CARDINAL
question we got from investors are from project proponents or just people in general was like is a hyper And what better way to show something is safe than by actually getting people on it But convincing investors and governments that would likely be fronting some of the construction costs for an unproven technology there's no easy task
First
ORDINAL
and foremost is the question of safety. Most people don't know how an airplane works but yet they get on an airplane. They get on an airplane because you know, it's faster than driving and most importantly, they've probably gotten off of
one
CARDINAL
before. They've seen someone get off of one before And so what we set out to do was actually show the hyper loop could be safe what
two
CARDINAL
normal people not astronauts not adrenaline junkies or test pilots or anything like that so normal people getting on a hyper lube and then most importantly this
two
CARDINAL
people getting off. For
Beyonce
GPE
concerns constructing hyperloops will undoubtedly require a significant capital investment to be estimated tune of around
60 1 million US dollars
MONEY
per kilometer of track. So a track from
San Francisco
GPE
to
Los Angeles
GPE
for example is likely to come with a price tag over
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
. And before large governments are willing to come in and front those Investors who are funding hyperloop development must accept it as a long-term mixture of technology and infrastructure investing. Investors that are used to short returns because you're developing apps or something to that effect, you know, those aren't the investors that really get
Excited
PRODUCT
about hyperloop. And that's the part where you're gonna get a lot more nose than yeses. But those people that have the ability that afforded to the stick it out to see the game changing platform here those are the people that were looking for and since we've done that passenger test there has been a lot of interest that's really oh this is a lot sooner than I thought Envisioning the ripple effects of what hyperloop could achieve those fairly challenging at this stage or development It's fast, yes, but for point to point travel, traditional mag live trains can move pretty fast as well. And outside of
China
GPE
,
South Korea
GPE
, and
Japan
GPE
, even those haven't seen much adoption elsewhere due to the high costs and questionable profitability.
The Shanghai Line
ORG
in
China
GPE
for example loses
around 100 1 million dollars
MONEY
every year
DATE
. Hyperloop companies, however, believe they can offer something different than traditional railway lines. My name is
Alan James
PERSON
As far as I know I'm the only guy on the planet who's written the government level business case for
100
CARDINAL
KMH conventional high speed rail
500
CARDINAL
KMH Maglav
PERSON
and
1000
CARDINAL
KMH hyperloop
All high-speed rail
500 1000
QUANTITY
KMH hyperloop. It's fundamentally about moving people from where they are to where they want to go when they want to make those journeys And doing it in much smaller numbers so pod designs for high poop range from
12 to 28
CARDINAL
seats typically Why are they small It's because small enables the network to operate flexibly. I'm a great example of that. Is the east west strategic route across the north of
England
GPE
? From
Liverpool
GPE
to
Manchester
PERSON
to
Leeds
PERSON
? So to get from
Liverpool
GPE
via
Manchester
PERSON
to leads by trainers just short of
2 hours
TIME
today
DATE
it'll probably take you
2 hours
TIME
driving as well in in average traffic Let result is those
three
CARDINAL
city regions remain
three
CARDINAL
separate entities
Liverpool
GPE
,
Manchester
GPE
,
Leeds
PERSON
. There's very little commuting traffic Between those
Urban
ORG
areas. Hyperloop From the ground up
Liverpool
GPE
to Manchester 5 or
6 minute
TIME
journey
Manchester
PERSON
to leads is also a
5 or 6 minute
TIME
journey. What effectively does is create a single super city economy. In this vision the hyperloop acts a little more like a highway where pods have fixed destinations and don't need to stop along the way. Meaning you can travel on a hyperloop network from say
Liverpool
GPE
to weeds while the pod behind you travels from
Liverpool
GPE
to
Manchester
PERSON
And if that
metro
FAC
hyper loop network is connected to other networks from the same location you could travel from
Liverpool
GPE
to
Paris
GPE
or
Liverpool
GPE
to
Amsterdam
GPE
all without making a single stop. For passengers For business For leisure that is utterly transformational For high value freight and logistics it's equally transformation Book critically If you do a hyperlute network at scale You begin to deliver Massively significant carbon savings to A multi-regional hyperloop network could become a replacement for both short haul passenger and cargo flights and traditional ground transportation Both of which are significant carbon producers. Hypo connected distribution hub Perhaps at an airport that is predominantly used for international air freight Maybe
10, 12
DATE
, Distributed road hubs. It takes a lot of polluting and inefficient truck hollage off the roads. That it's so Roads going extra capacity Hyperloops will still need to use electricity to both move pods and maintain the near vacuum environment and the tube. Performance of the technology believe that this could be done by using renewable sources including a combination of solar panels and battery technology that could be used along the hyperloop itself. But even with all multipliers of time and carbon emission savings that hyperloop network may provide the investment capital required to actually build such a network becomes even more economically and politically Committing doesn't mean spending
billions
CARDINAL
on day one Committing means How do we face it
One
CARDINAL
company and the
Netherlands
GPE
is working to develop that technology and perhaps more importantly the international coalition needed to make the hyperloop network a reality. So we are here in
Europe
LOC
's
first
ORDINAL
full scale high blue test facility But we can already prove every conceptual technology of the
iPhone
ORG
. This is
Tim Houder
PERSON
a co founder and CEO of Heart
Hyper Loop
PERSON
headquartered in the city of Delph And while this testing tube might not seem as large as others inside is key technology to create the on and off ramp type infrastructure of a hyperloop network that is a lane switch. Can already pass the area you can actually see it here. Diversity from one track into
Network network that is a lane switch. Already past the area you can actually see you there. Eventually split up the
iPhone
ORG
track in
two
CARDINAL
And it does change you can create a complete eye group network within the end we'll make it possible to travel for example over a whole continent I think you're for example We're the same ease as you can now travel with a metro in the city The nice thing about this magnetic levitation system that we've developed Is that there's absolutely oh moving components in the track So for example if you have to do a lane switch All you do is that the
two
CARDINAL
basically splits up. And statically the tricks also split up And whenever the vehicle enters a switch it either pulls itself to the right with Or pools itself to the left with it magnets.
Lane
PERSON
switching on traditional rail requires the physical movement of the rail. Even moderate magnetic levitation tracks use lane switching techniques in order to transfer trains from
one
CARDINAL
track to another. Very crucial elements because this is the thing that limits the capacity In the end the usefulness of the real network Because the moment that a track is switching that means that a dead moment you are creating an unsafe environment for the trains behind it so you need a lot of space between drinks Because you have no moving components in the track. All the vehicles can be much closer to each other. You can achieve a very high frequency and basically have your vehicles moving and merging in and out of the network very much like a highway. For now though hearts physical testing has been limited by the size of their tube because the test track is only 30 m long they haven't tested this lane switch at speeds
greater than 20 km per hour
QUANTITY
however the company is working to build a new test site Plans to increase that testing speed to
300 km per hour
QUANTITY
. We're not gonna face where we have proven most of the most important technologies in the test facilities And we have also demonstrated the viability and the feasibility of a network If you'll look at all the top systems that it consist of most of those are proofing systems are very demonstrated in lap conditions so we don't really believe that's the technology itself is going to be the biggest challenge Because for all hyperloop companies out there actually building a hyperloop system requires more than just a good product. We're talking about the safety aspects we're talking about integration into the environment. We're talking about social aspects. Do people feel comfortable travelling in such a system. So it's about all these different aspects And the complexity is really getting all the different stakeholders that are relevant. And that needs to continue to bring this to markets. To get them all Doing the same rope map. In order to help build this coalition of private and public interest in hyperloop development
2018
DATE
partner with other hyperlib companies from
Europe
LOC
and
Canada
GPE
. The goal was to define established in standardize the framework to regulate hyperloop systems. Right now, we are working with all the hyperloop developers together in setting up the first let's say structure for the for starting the Standards drafting.
One
CARDINAL
of the most important goals for heart is interoperability which is essentially making sure the different systems can communicate with each other Is so important because what we want to achieve is actually have this seamless travel experience so you don't want to end up for example going from
Madrid
GPE
to
Paris
GPE
and then switching because you need to use a different technology to
I've experienced so you don't want to end up for example going from
Madrid
GPE
to
Paris
GPE
and then switching because you need to use a different technology to get Example to
Amsterdam
GPE
. The idea being that as companies run
Europe
LOC
create the
first
ORDINAL
commercial hyperloop tracks between individual cities.
1 day
DATE
those can all be connected to a larger network. Everyone that believes that I believe is a future transport system. Also realises that there is a need to have this network Because that's where a hyperloop thrives. It's such a huge project. It's definitely not something that that you can do in your own or as a single company So you need to do it with a lot of other companies You need to have to governments. I think that sends the biggest challenge if we can count it. It's a really get all the required parties together to take the steps in development and in commercial implementation. Heart's next plan is to build the
European
NORP
hyperloop center an open testing facility which will include a
two
CARDINAL
.
Six
CARDINAL
km test track and the company hopes to test travel speeds there at up to
700 kg
QUANTITY
Per hour. Virgin hyperloop is also racing to construct the
first
ORDINAL
commercial hyperloop route With projects in various states of development in
India
GPE
Saudi Arabia
GPE
and
the United States
GPE
. Recently the company announced plans to build a hyperloop certification center in
West Virginia
GPE
which will include a
six
CARDINAL
mi long test track. Proving the technology here will be crucial if hyperloop networks can find a home among infrastructure investments that the
Biden
PERSON
administration hopes to make the idea there's multiple hyperloop companies I think is a redeeming aspect in the People really want to see something happen so having multiple people move forward Is is good for that I was struck When
Sarah
PERSON
wrote the pod Of the major outlets use the phrase we now have a new mode of transport and although all of that technology had existed before those
two
CARDINAL
human beings wrote it yeah It was the moment at which those
two
CARDINAL
human beings traveled that short distance down the tube but in popular imagination hyperloop became a My team is that you know the right brothers refers but none of us fly on
right brothers airlines
ORG
anymore. If you don't continue to innovate, you're not gonna be around and so we'll continue to be at the forefront of building Back in
2013
DATE
Elon had an idea I think the difference now in
2021
DATE
is some brilliant engineers of Been real time grinding out the details I thoroughly expect
the next 3 to 5 years
DATE
to be decisive
This week
DATE
how high children can transform our energy usage we'll look at why the universe's most abundant element could be a game changer in the climate revolution Energies are not new. They are used in in other sectors. We use them in space on our rockets and we don't need the rules of physics to change to be able to use hydrogen on our planes. From Iron Or to
Green Hydrogen
PRODUCT
one
CARDINAL
of
Australia
GPE
's richest men tells us about his pivot to sustainable energy. Let's take action It's implementable No. Plus the hydrogen revolution will speak with the CEO of
Italian
NORP
utilities firm snam about his new book and how green hydrogen could be competitive within
5 years
DATE
. Headquarters in
New York
GPE
. It's
a new year
DATE
so here at
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we're highlighting new solutions in the fight against climate change and
one
CARDINAL
of those is as old as the universe itself hydrogen it's the simplest element around but could well be a game changer when it Turning around are dependents on fossil fuels
Today
DATE
hydrogen is used in the chemicals industry to produce petroleum products. It's also To be used in steel production and industry under a lot of pressure to decarbonize but it Far more uses as well from powering cars to heating our homes and
Bloomberg
PERSON
Do you finance? Sector in
the next 10 years
DATE
as green hydrogen squeezes out dirty alternatives so called gray hydrogen dominates
today
DATE
but as renewable electricity gets cheaper and more accessible
Hydrogen
GPE
In this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we'll explore what this push into hydrogen means for tackling climate change we'll hear from
Australian
NORP
billionaire twiggy forest about his pivot from iron or
two
CARDINAL
hydrogen and we'll also speak with the CEO of All your utility companies spam about his book
The Hydrogen Revolution
WORK_OF_ART
but
first
ORDINAL
what are we using hydrogen for and why does it actually matter? Christine
Lee Edwards
PERSON
explains. Hydrogen the most plentiful element in the universe On earth we find it mostly bonded to oxygen in the form of water
Hydrogen
GPE
gas Htwo burns hot and clean making it an attractive tool in the race to net oh but isolating hydrogen from other elements is no easy task
Chemical
ORG
processes that break up natural gas. This releases a lot of carpet dioxide. Another method is used electricity to split water molecules. In a process called electrolysis. Although there is no carbon byproduct. A lot of electricity is needed. And if this Comes from burning cold or gas. Missions goals of using hydrogen to begin with.
Hydrogen
ORG
produced in this way. Powered by fossil fuels is called gray hydrogen. If carbon capture a storage is used together with fossil fuels then it becomes blue hydrogen. If nuclear power issues, it's called pink. Renewable sources this method is considered emissions free. Did that by the early 2030's.
Hydrogen
ORG
. It's what is produced via electrolysis and powered from renewable sources. This method is considered emissions free. It's predicted that by the early 2030's, Htwo made for renewables will be cheaper than that made from fossil fuels. That hinges on the cost of electrolysis declining which will be achieved through larger projects and an expansion of manufacturing. To be clear, vast amounts of
Htwo
ORG
are already used
today
DATE
. Global production in
2018
DATE
, totaled
117 1 million metric tons
QUANTITY
. This hydrogen is mostly used for its chemical Some sectors like steel could start using hydrogen for these chemical properties replacing coal industries like submitting glass may also use hydrogen as a source of heat
Advantage
ORG
is it's energy storage potential it can be stored over long periods of time and used when more power needs to be added to the grid it also could hold an advantage over batteries and heavy transport and shipping The promise of hydrogen for energy has been around since
at least 1874
DATE
when
Jules Vern
PERSON
wrote about it in his book
The Mysterious Island
WORK_OF_ART
. But the future of hydrogen
Carbon
PRODUCT
pricing and hydrogen strategies with investment mechanisms are likely to see the highest Htwo demand. Explaining what hydrogen means for the energy transition but how are businesses The sector. Well, one of
Australia
GPE
's richest men is making a big play into hydrogen.
Andrew Forest
PERSON
better known as
Twiggy
PERSON
made his fortune from iron or being the chairman
One
CARDINAL
of the world's biggest minors but after I meet over
10 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in profit from the medal in
the last fiscal year
DATE
20 Transform for discue into a clean energy company he's been scouring the planet in search
Opportunities
PERSON
in hydrogen and renewables. The front plants to allocate
up to 10%
PERCENT
of its annual profits for green energy investments. And is exploring projects across the globe from
Indonesia
GPE
to
Argentina
GPE
. Friends in
Laqua
ORG
caught up with
twenty
CARDINAL
-forest. There's only Type of clean hype and all the rest is
30
CARDINAL
yep. That is great. Just say green hygiene is clean. The rest is dirty then you've actually nailed it. And you know anyone else who produces any other rubbers any other I could just look in the outside. Why? Is global warming accelerating if anything is saying is true? And then there's no actually it's brainwashing. Yeah but there's a lot of green washing because I keep on being told it's a transition. We can't just, you know, make the transition at a click of a finger. So, what are we doing wrong? What can we do better? The personal computer having to transition the typewriter. I really don't remember that. I don't remember the the smartphone having to transition the pocket calculator and the old landline. No, it's transitional is complete rubbish. The lie got hooked to it.
2 days ago
DATE
Really love
British
NORP
couple The country Huge got together
One 1 billion US dollar
MONEY
agreement. Right then that's a real wake up call to say hang on Obviously commercial now No every other form of fuel hydration You know it can compete with it on price it can probably lose on price but what we know it is cooking the planet Don't worry about the molecules. Right. In the supply. But at the moment we'll not even facing our call. If you're going to G 20 okay. So we have a long way to go to talk about only using green hydrogen. Yeah so look I have a call so I'd like to make now. The world should not fund Right Just like gray and blue hudging it's No.
We should wind them down as quickly as possible because Just like gray and blue hutch in Yep.
10 to 16
CARDINAL
times more carbon So why are leaders so slow even if you look at the appetite for your investments they're growing exponentially so our missions so where are we allocating capital okay so take
the recent 220
DATE
There's probably a reason why there wasn't strong action coming out of the G 20 Because people were not aware Major transactions between large Actually this pollution free all the way to the supply chain fuel is now being transacted at multi
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
scale Any energy Could not take ultra seriously then green heart is never here to stay it's broken through It will never go back. Okay, what is the one thing that you would tell leaders
today
DATE
and business leaders? How do we transition
Faster
PERSON
than what we are now because we're at real risk of missing our targets. Oh, so that's really simple. Do you stop Funding you stop subsidizing you stop Using Right?
Hundreds of billions of dollars
MONEY
getting ashed. Push down Now we know let's take action. It's practical. It's implementable. If we do it now is there going to be a shock to the energy system is there going to be a shock actually to economically and is it worth you know not talking about transition just going from A to B. It's fantastic person A to B's the solution let fossil fuels do what fossil fuels do just burn their cold burn their oil burn the gas at least they're pumping up carpet and methane into the atmosphere Honestly. Well, not that honestly. So, don't mention me thing which is
90
CARDINAL
times worse. Yeah. But at least the carpet is being done honestly. Encourage the
Green Heights
GPE
sector to come in really fast. Okay, it's there. There's there's renewable power all over the world. We now know how to make electrolysis much cheaper. 20- Does it need to be cheaper than oil and fossil fuel for it to be viable worldwide? Well right now is okay so let's just swallow that bit of financial data Right now is cheaper And it's getting more chick it's it's great You don't have enough of it. Right, to power the world. That that's only because We haven't had policies to support We had policies to support it
510 years, ago
DATE
, it would be everywhere you'd see the global warming budget start to come down. Yeah. Now, we've got
5 or 10 years
DATE
to make a huge difference. Honestly that's all over the world. Please check now okay We now know it's here and it's here to stay it's everywhere. Coming up on the program the hydrogen revolution will speak with the CEO of
Italian
NORP
utility firm snam about his new book and why he thinks green hydrogen will be competitive in
just 5 years
DATE
Plus, how are airlines working to become more sustainable? We'll look at how
airbus
ORG
plants to step up in the climate fight. This is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
.
From
Bloomberg
ORG
's World headquarters in
New York
GPE
I'm
Kaylee Lines
PERSON
and this is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
What will the world look like in
2050
DATE
will global temperatures have stabilized electric vehicles be abundant and solar and wind power homes around the world according to
Marco Alvara
PERSON
the CEO of
Italian Energy Company Snam
ORG
that vision of the future could be Reality. And he says that hydrogen will pay its way. As he tells it in his new book,
The Hydrogen Revolution
WORK_OF_ART
,
Alvarez
PERSON
moment of reckoning came in
November 2018
DATE
. When he tasked the snap scenarios team was studying how
Europe
LOC
could reduce its
COtwo
ORG
emissions to oh by
2050
DATE
. Looking through the results
Study Alvara
ORG
said he was struck by how much hydrogen was in
Europe
LOC
's energy mix buy
that year
DATE
beyond the abundance of hydrogen the stand model also predicted that it would be the cheapest form of decarbonized From any sectors and that it could be cheaper than
today
DATE
's prices for oil coal and nuclear power. Are
Maria
PERSON
today I spoke with
Alvera
ORG
at Cop
26
CARDINAL
. It's happening all very fast. We see the cost of hydrogen coming down a lot.
Hydrogen
ORG
will play a big role in the energy mix. I don't know if it's gonna be
15 or 25%
PERCENT
of the fully decarbonized energy system. But it's gonna be big. Call sir coming down and people are waking up to the fact that it's the only way to decarbonize certain sectors. So called hard to a Hydrogen 2004 it was costing a $
1000
MONEY
per mega an hour
2016
DATE
100
today
DATE
100
CARDINAL
we see it going down to
50
CARDINAL
in
5 years
DATE
time and to going down to $
25
MONEY
per mega
that hour
TIME
in
Next 10 years
DATE
or so.
Hydrogen
ORG
here.
Hydrogen
GPE
. Are they keen on this?
What are them telling you when you speak to governments
Hydrogen
ORG
strategy which is very clear and several member states have the same chili ones to expert a lot of hydrogen
China
GPE
's big Hydrogen so I would say the world is now really focused on this because it's the only way to store energy for a long period of time economically is to convert it into either a liquid or gas.
Hydrogen
ORG
eventually and so compared to oil and gas which are concentrated in few parts of the world. It's gonna be very democratic from that point of view. So, every sunny place, every desert, every ocean wind, can be turned into hydrogen that we can put on ships in pipes and ready start trading it around the world. So, it's gonna happen a lot faster than a lot of people think What is that in time? Before
the end of the day
DATE
Hydrogen
GPE
development, a lot of renewable development in both countries. The
Indian
NORP
announcement was incredibly On
23rd
DATE
. He announced the big big commitment to get the
50%
PERCENT
price by it. They would make it so explicit.
Hydrogen
GPE
. Perhaps the diplomats are working on this but we haven't really seen the leadership. It's gonna be industry I think
China
GPE
has committed to an at oh which is very important at
the G 20
ORG
China
GPE
was clearly behind the one and a
half degrees
QUANTITY
so I think a lot has been achieved between the G 20 and and
Cop
PERSON
and I think what's really important is to see in
the coming years
DATE
how quick it's in our hands to make part of this happen in 5 years or it could Already committed what's missing is really the projects and that's where companies like us step in.
Marco Alvara
PERSON
CEO of
Snam
GPE
there speaking with
Armaria
GPE
today
DATE
Let's turn out to the aviation industry. It's a Tribute to global greenhouse gas emissions and it's Pressure to change that. In
October
DATE
,
the International Air Transport Association
ORG
, a tree body representing Approved a target of achieving net oh missions by
2050
DATE
to achieve that many airlines in the
US
GPE
and
Europe
LOC
are looking to buy sustainable aviation fuel made from renewable sources like used vegetable
Initiatives
NORP
like these are pushing play makers to come up with some radical new aircraft that will eventually cater to our growing app For travel without hurting the environment. We took a look at how
airbus
ORG
the world's number
two
CARDINAL
aircraft manufacturer is stepping up to the challenge. How long until we can fly emission free It's more confident by
the day
DATE
it can be done by its
2035
DATE
target The physic works high origin technologies are not new. They are used in in other sectors. We use them in space on our rockets and we don't need the rules of physics to change to be able to use high origin on our planes. So, every day we become more confident but we think we need to have a plan. We need to have the the right fuels, the high And we need the regulations to be ready so we really need the the work and the collaboration of many people on the globe to make it happen on time. But it could be a long way to until green passenger jets go mainstream larger air
Many people are on the globe to make it happen on time. But it could be a long way to until green passenger jets go mainstream Globally until about 25th Cut their carbon In a long term meeting the ambitious plans for so called green hydrogen means building a giant industry almost from scratch to make that happen
British
NORP
airline easy jet as among those saying governments need to get involved and fast Aviations emissions over
the last three decades
DATE
leading up to the pandemic grew by
about 80%
PERCENT
to over
one
CARDINAL
gigaton and that's projected to double by
2050
DATE
. According to
Bloomberg NEF
PERSON
about half of the airlines with the largest global market share have set oh targets by that same date
nearly three decades
DATE
away Coming up from blue sky projects to the bottom line we'll speak with our
Bloomberg NEF
PERSON
expert
Meredith Annex
PERSON
and dig into their models
Hydrogen
GPE
fits into the future energy mix. Is
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
?
Bloomberg
PERSON
's world headquarters in
New York
GPE
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
any of hydrogen specialist
Talk
PERSON
more about how hydrogen could change the energy landscape. So, What place do you think hydrogen is likely to have in the future energy mix globally? Hydrogen this incredible solution for us as we look to decarbonize because it's a perfect solution in areas that are hard to electrify. So, where we like to think about hydrogen playing a role, it's in things like heavy industry, especially where you need a feed stalk as well as energy source Transport maybe even shipping an aviation. That sounds great that it can be used for such diverse industries. At
the end of the day
DATE
though, how much is this going to cost Well that's the amazing thing about hydrogen because Significant cost in the future. When we're talking about clean hydrogen we're usually mean green hydrogen produce from renewable electricity and in that case
Hydrogen
GPE
is almost as cheap as the renewable.
So when we're talking about clean hydrogen we're usually mean green hydrogen produce from renewable electricity. And in that case So if you're in a place with really good renewable resources you'll be able to have cheaper hydrogen but even in places with less good resources we think that hydrogen can be cheaper than a dollar per kilogram. Which is the price of unabated hydrogen
today
DATE
. And
around $Eight
MONEY
per
one 1 million
CARDINAL
BTUs for those who prefer to think in energy units. And that can be changed anywhere in the world by
2015
DATE
, we believe. Alright, so let's talk about kind of the pros and cons list. I don't know where cost fits into that but what are the advantages to hydrogen over other renewables and then what are the drawbacks? Yeah main advantage is the fact that hydrogen can serve rolls that electrons struggle with and that's things like seasonal storage for instance or just anything where you need to store ability where your electrons are harder to store hydrogen is gonna be easier. That also leads to a downside though because hydrogen is less energy dense than the usual things that we use for storeable energy today like coal or oil or natural gas. So, you will need more volume, a storage to handle the same amount of energy Let's talk about the viability as well and how it may differ in different geographies. What is your view on that? Yeah. So, for green hydrogen again from renewable electricity, Places with the best renewable resources things like
Latin America
LOC
or
the Middle East
LOC
even
Southern Europe
LOC
have really really good potential for producing hydrogen and then when you're looking at blue hydrogen which is produced from natural gas or coal with carbon caption storage we do see that becoming more expensive than green hydro Where you've got good geological storage for the carbon as well as ample natural gas that's quite cheap. Alright, great breakdown. Thank you so much to our
Meredith Annex
PERSON
. Our
Bloomberg
PERSON
,
NEF
ORG
, hydrogen specialist, and of course, you can get more from the
NF
ORG
team on the terminal and online and they've recently done a podcast called hydrogen 101 as part of it switched on series. So from iron or tightens pivoting to cleaner energy to talk of a hydrogen revolution that's it from this
week
DATE
's edition of
Bloomberg Green
PERSON
we'll be back
next week
DATE
with a deep dive into the state of electric And you can keep the conversation going by following us on
YouTube
ORG
,
Instagram
ORG
, and
Twitter Climate
PERSON
. From
Bloomberg
PERSON
's world headquarters in
New York
GPE
and this. Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com,
the Bloomberg Business app
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.
Bloomberg
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.
You're a
278%
PERCENT
. Activist investor down lobe says he is acquired a stake in
Walt Disney
FAC
calling for sweeping changes of the world's largest entertainment company
Disney
ORG
shares up now by
two
CARDINAL
. Four% activist investor
Elliot
PERSON
management has taken a large position in cardinal health this according to
the Wall St Journal
ORG
cardinal Up now by
just about one
CARDINAL
. One%. Again, recapping the Dal, the S and P
Inez Dack
PERSON
are all advancing S and P up now by
13
CARDINAL
points again there of
three
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
. I'm
Charlie Palette
PERSON
. That is a
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week inside from the reporters and editors who bring you
America
GPE
's most trusted business magazine plus global business finance and tech news as it happens.
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week with
Carol Messenger
PERSON
and
Bloomberg Live
PERSON
from studio yes we are streaming on
YouTube
ORG
it is another
Monday
DATE
this 1 august 15 2022
Katie Graffeld
PERSON
I'm just calling
Tim
PERSON
stand up and said don't bother I got
Katie
PERSON
Senior markets reporter she is in the house host of
ETFIQ
ORG
on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
if you missed it it was
today
DATE
check it out online cuz it's everything you wanna know about
World of ETFs
ORG
. Speaking of the equity market, so risk trade in stocks is back. Didn't we get
some week
DATE
economic news from the
US
GPE
and
China
GPE
? Looking at
today
DATE
's trade. Everything is awesome. Alright, we're also gonna talk about
the Bloomer Big Take
FAC
. It's on
Wells Fargo
ORG
and it's mortgage empire. We're gonna talk about another company in the news Disney on activist investors saying, we can make you more magical, magic kingdom. I was so interested to see this because
Elliot
PERSON
, for example, has made so many ways. It feels like activists invest Is on the rise. It certainly is. We're gonna get into that. We're also gonna talk about the work from home revolution. Turns out it turns out to also be a trap for women.
First
ORDINAL
up though, let's get to the markets and the market drivers report. Adheres your business week agenda just met in the house equities reporter up
Bloomberg News Vince Ignala Global Mac
ORG
Strategist writing about the
fed
ORG
and housing he is on the phone from
White Plains
FAC
New York
GPE
just kick it off yeah so looking at the equity markets today virtually unchanged looking at the S and P 500 slightly higher but obviously pairing those losses that we saw marginal losses
earlier this morning
TIME
taking all the world was kinda freaking out right
Second
ORDINAL
largest economy and what that could mean especially with the
fed
ORG
is this is where bad news is good news especially for maybe the US Right? Talking about that especially
the last few weeks
DATE
with the different data points that have been coming out but I mean just looking underneath the surface for the S and P
500
CARDINAL
energy leading declines down about
two%
ORG
for that sector but obviously that has a correlation with what's happening with oil prices and that has to do with those concerns that are going on with
China
GPE
but then looking at some of the leaders staples utilities more defensive type oriented sectors Technically in the staple sector but also here from
Target
GPE
and
Home Depot
ORG
in
the next couple of days
DATE
. That's gonna be really key to hear this strength that the consumer and especially earnings growth moving forward in their outlooks. What
Katie
PERSON
's building is It was for her host of
Home Depot
ORG
. Seems like it's been more enduring there. Exactly. Yeah. I'm not so sure I would expect a dollar to retain these games in
the next year
DATE
or
two
CARDINAL
of stocks still kick up more or less that interest correlation has held in
today
DATE
's broken down a little bit but Like Hey feels like it's still there to me I think what we're really seeing is and you know despite what the
Fed
ORG
said governors and presidents and such continue to say I think we're we're looking at the market pointing a thing at the fad and saying we'll write you wrong rolling the data is rolling over so terrible empire numbers
this morning
TIME
another Give us a hint They were thinking about out there
A horrible set of housing numbers. We get more housing data
tomorrow
DATE
and we get retail sales on
Wednesday
DATE
and
the third minutes
TIME
may be give us a hint. Data continues to to plummet. And retail sales follows badly. I I just don't see how they go. I mean they've taught themselves in
September
DATE
. I don't see how they go any other golf after that. I think they have to stop. What you talk about the terrible or another batch of turbo housing data. Use home Home building stocks are down about
one%
ORG
today
DATE
's trade but they've had quite a run in
the last 3 or 4 days
DATE
the importance between the connection between the
fed
ORG
and housing. Well, I mean, you know, if you look at what happened in
2003
DATE
, there was a classic speech that
Bernaki
LOC
gave her an interview where he basically said
Greensband
PERSON
, excuse me, I don't understand why Or taking out these
six
CARDINAL
home loans with rates so low they should be taking a variable loans Housing market. You know, if you look at, if you look at the interest rate moves from
2003
DATE
to 2007 and you're looking at the moves now and what it's doing to housing, it's having the exact same effect. I'm not saying we're gonna have a financial crisis or or
Housing Housing
ORG
shows at the
fed
ORG
is overdoing it. Absolutely and I think that's the that's the consumer telling the said that they're over doing it. Most people feel they're wealth in their home actually not really in the stock market. Across the country. And when you start to see you know home equity start to a road. When you see mortgage rates starting to rise. There's a lot of fear out there and I think that's what's driving the lower sentiment From
Hong Kong
GPE
to And he's like, oh my god, it's so expensive. Exactly right yeah. Global newsroom but before we get, you know, to the feds
September
DATE
meeting, we have to live through a week of some pretty hefty retail earnings
Jess
ORG
. Walmart kits is off
tomorrow
DATE
. What are we expecting to see out of the sector? So, that's gonna be obviously huge name there and obviously the health of the consumer and Because they've already came in
at the end of July
DATE
they had already cut their profit outlook moving forward as well as target early in
June
DATE
they had already slashed their guidance as well and target for instance I mean they've had a big inventory issue so that's gonna be key because it's interesting if you look over at
Macy
ORG
's they've had a better time managing some of those inventory hurdles but then specifically with
Guidance
ORG
at
the end of July
DATE
. It's gonna be interesting especially since we've seen those recent CPI reports like
last week
DATE
and that debate Whether or not we're at peak inflation or not it's gonna be key to see what they're seeing with the consumer and how the consumer is feeling right now. Yeah, I will certainly see how it plays out in the investor sentiment. I mean, I'm just looking at. It's
about two and
CARDINAL
a half percent of the data and it's about. Five%. I'm talking about
Walmart
ORG
. IBS and P 500. So, just in terms of it's power to impact maybe the trade. Alright, we gotta leave it there. Just Thank you so much. Equities reporter at
Bloomberg News
ORG
. Check her out at
Jessica Mitten
PERSON
on
Twitter
PERSON
and of course her thanks to
Vince Cigarella
PERSON
. Global macro strategist at
Bloomberg News
ORG
on the phone from
White Plains
FAC
New York
GPE
saying
fed
ORG
enough is
Alright
ORG
, let's get back to world the national news. She's in
DC
GPE
. Thanks
Carol Senators
PERSON
are pushing for more details about the content of the document cease
last week
DATE
at Mar a Lago
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Amy Morris
PERSON
has the latest from
Washington
GPE
Members of
the senate intelligence committee
ORG
made a bipartisan request for those documents senators
Mark Warner
PERSON
a democratic chairs Vice chairman made the request in a private letter
yesterday
DATE
to
the justice department
ORG
in the office of the director of
National Intelligence
ORG
they asked the
Cease
ORG
to provide the panel with the documents and a quote assessment of potential risks to national security as a result of their mishandling in
Washington
GPE
I'm anymore as
Bloomberg
PERSON
radio
Rudy Giuliani's
PERSON
lawyer says Lawyers say they've been told
Giuliani
PERSON
is a target of a criminal investigation into possible illegal
Rudy Giuliani's
PERSON
lawyer says they've been lawyers say they've been told
Juliani
PERSON
is a target of a criminal investigation into possible illegal attempts by then President
Trump
PERSON
and others to interfere in the
2020
DATE
general In
Georgia
GPE
. Also
today
DATE
, a judge says
South Carolina
GPE
Republican
NORP
Senator
Lindsay Graham
PERSON
must testify before
Georgia
GPE
grand jury looking into that possible interference
Graham
PERSON
had previously said he was immune to such testimony due to his position as a senator. Well, when it comes to climate change,
Americans
NORP
are convinced that it is happening but fewer of them are willing to do anything about it and a new
AP Nork Center
FAC
poll found most people like
Desmond Aidel
PERSON
And
Indiana
GPE
banker feel they cannot do much to affect climate change I could swap to a bike right now and only bike everywhere and I really don't think anything would change as far as like how humans are affecting climate change the poll also found climate change Is not mentioned as a priority by many
Americans
NORP
. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take I Nancy Lyons Alright,
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
, thank you so much,
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in our
99 one
CARDINAL
newsroom in
Washington DC
GPE
.
Carol Master-Law
PERSON
,
Katie Griffelton
PERSON
, we'll be back
tomorrow
DATE
right here on
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
. This is I believe our most red story on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
in
the past 8 hours
TIME
. This is what folks are reading in the financial community. Hot
New York City Brokerage
GPE
They rent places, right? Real estate. You see kind of their listings all over the place. Apparently, they're bracing
Katie
PERSON
for a brutal housing slide. And it's important. They didn't generate an annual profit in the latest real estate boom. So, really now they're facing a lot of pressure to try to reign in their cost while continuing to grow and just for some history It's been more than
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
to become the go to home seller in
New York Miami
GPE
and
Los Angeles
GPE
that's probably why you've seen their ads everywhere right exactly and so compass as we mentioned has yet to generate an annual profit back in
June
DATE
company laying off
400
CARDINAL
Poise that he equated to
10%
PERCENT
of its salary staff and it also signal that further cost cutting measures could come now as Can prepare us to brief investors we're talking about the
Robert Raffkin
PERSON
right? Yeah yeah thank you for this it's really important Yeah so as he gets ready to brief investors on the company's
second quarter
DATE
earnings he's gonna have to really convince them that a company that couldn't make money in the hottest housing market ever can turn a profit as
US
GPE
housing cause it's a great question if you can't do it when things are really hot They're white. Open door technology have all warned about this housing pullback and that marking condition Talked about when the fit starts to raise you know rates you see it
first
ORDINAL
in the housing market and then of course there's an impact I think Arguing that the because of the housing slowdown we see but many would argue inflation still really high. I know and it's definitely felt throughout the component to be look under the hood. Alright, lots more to come right here on
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Markets headlines and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com
the Bloomberg Business app
ORG
. I'm
Charlie Spot
PERSON
gold now down $
24
MONEY
a ounce down one. Four%
Three and a half percent
DATE
WTI right now
8885
DATE
so an update for the
US
GPE
stock market I'm
Charlie Pellet
PERSON
that is a
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash
Kick
PERSON
off to the clothes
Bloomberg
PERSON
's comprehensive cross platform coverage bringing you inside on what to watch ahead of the
US
GPE
market close starts right now And a very good
afternoon
TIME
everybody welcome to the kick off to the clothes
Carol Master
PERSON
and
Katie Grifeld
PERSON
in from my co host
Tim Stanivac
PERSON
we welcome our TV colleagues
Caroline Hey
PERSON
we did it
Carolina
GPE
,
Taylor Rick
PERSON
,
Shanelli Bosic
GPE
, walking you through the key things you need to keep on your mind as we work towards the closing bell and guys, what do we have on our radar? We've got the world's
two
CARDINAL
biggest economy slowing down Investors continue to buy.
Towards the closing bill and guys what do we have on our radar we've got the world's
two
CARDINAL
biggest economy slowing down
13
CARDINAL
Filings are showing up and checking things up and you add it all up
Carolina
GPE
and investors continue to buy stocks I Interesting that they've managed to power high even though we've had this wall of worry that gets over higher when you're looking at the economic data perspective. The fundamentals of
China
GPE
,
the funda Of
ORG
the
US
GPE
but the S and P 500 managed to call it back into the green after
four straight weeks
DATE
of gains we're seeing another three tenths of percent added on the S and P another
410 percent
PERCENT
added on
the Dow Joe's
ORG
industrial average General big tech helping this market push up but small caps they're underwater on the tailor off by
four
CARDINAL
points you see some under performance there are
Carolina
GPE
Is you take us through the majors I'm gonna kick us off on some of the key things we wanna watch as we get off to the closing bell and count you down and really snowy for me it is all about the economic data that we got
this morning
TIME
the
Empire
GPE
manufacturing data and looks
second
ORDINAL
worst decline on record that is the bar on the bottom of the screen the worst that we've had since
about 2020
DATE
and really on the top you see big collapse here from
negative 31
DATE
from positive
11
CARDINAL
consensus here was for five and I think sort of Could be a
one
CARDINAL
off. They're really gonna Be looking at some of the other regional data as well to see how much of a trend this really is. Yeah, we have to watch all those data points
Time
ORG
like this cuz when you have some positive data on inflation, you have some really negative data from businesses here,
Carol Yeah
PERSON
, absolutely. Well, what's interesting is
Taylor
PERSON
talking about some disappointing economic news here in
the United States
GPE
. Well, overnight, we got disappointing economic news from
China
GPE
.
Mike McGee
PERSON
saying we've got
two
CARDINAL
systems,
one
CARDINAL
result, both
US
GPE
and
China
GPE
are slowing down. For
China
GPE
overnight
TIME
, industrial product, retail sales, and fixed acid investment, all coming in weaker than expected art chart Now on TV and for all of you on radio shows the moves in
chinese
NORP
industrial output retail sales in
China
GPE
and show how that has brought down overall
Chinese
NORP
growth way down from
early 2021
DATE
not surprisingly we did see
the Central Bank
ORG
in
China
GPE
cutting interest I mean it was a shock to the markets but tell it we're expecting maybe even more rooms because it was kinda slight the important key take away from me is that you've got the
two
CARDINAL
largest economies in the world slowing down I don't think you wanna guess My queue take away was what a
10 year
DATE
China
GPE
bond that moved
three
CARDINAL
standard deviation wait
Taylor
PERSON
talking It's important. We love it when she talks technicals. Let's talk a little bit more on the technical front because maybe that's what's driving retail investors. It ain't a fundamental story. When we're looking at bed bath and beyond which is a stock that is currently continuing to do well, even though we see this bearish concerns about the economy in
China
GPE
, the economy in the
US
GPE
. We currently seeing up
more than 150%
PERCENT
The last month or so
DATE
they've added they're now in a
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
valuation even though the company is mad and concerns needing more money on the deck and this is as we really start to see maybe the meme stocks gonna hold we see retail investors getting back into tech names getting back into Certain levels that we were back in the mean frenzy of
2021
DATE
cows. I don't even know what to say but I do have
five
CARDINAL
words
Caroline
ORG
,
43%
PERCENT
of the float is shorted on bed bath and beyond. Alright, that's
more than five
CARDINAL
words. But I mean, it's just a big short position. So, you wonder how much that comes into
Katie
PERSON
. I feel like I wanna blame the
fed
ORG
somehow but in any case, what I'm watching of course is ETF flows because you did see an interesting moment of risk appetite. If you look at the JP
Morgan
PERSON
equity premium income ETF, this sort of is a safe place to put your cash sort of collect some yield there. When markets are going, hey, wire, this fund
87th street days
DATE
of inflows. Finally, the fever has broken. You saw a big outflow on
Fridays
DATE
. Just sort of speaks to people are feeling a little bit Comfortable in stocks right now. That's where they can actually go to generate some alpha. They don't need necessarily that safety anymore. Yet we still have such advocated market. We still have a JP
Morgan
PERSON
that says go long. We still have a
Morgan Stanley
ORG
,
Mike Wilson
PERSON
that says, this is still we're going back to a bear market. We're still just in a bear market rally. It feels as though this optimism amongst certain invest It's amazing considering someone that tells the
two
CARDINAL
cities that we have on coming on deck from the analysts and strategists. And what that optimism is coming from
Carolina
GPE
.
Optimism among certain investors. It's amazing considering some of the tales of
two
CARDINAL
cities that we have on coming on deck from the analyst and strategist. And what that optimism is coming from
Carolina
GPE
. So exciting. You have to watch this
Steak
PERSON
today
DATE
for example that
Dan Lobe
PERSON
disclosed at
third
ORDINAL
point of
Disney
ORG
activists really heating up in a big way here asking for big big changes in a I just reported pretty stellar earnings. He's asking them to consider separating from of course it's price asset their
ESPN
ORG
. We have to watch mother stocks
Amazon
ORG
alphabet. Because these are other big names that are coming up in these big
13
CARDINAL
Filings
ORG
. These big hedge fund filings but there are also a lot of safety trades, treasuries, and gold. We have heard Jets now from
Michael Burry
PERSON
for example and what he is saying reflecting in his
13
CARDINAL
F's is that you know He's selling more than he's buying. He's a pretty big bear here. But when you're looking at
Tyro
PERSON
, you are seeing them change up their positioning too, adding some new buys, after what has been a tough, tough quarter. Yeah, let those
13
CARDINAL
F Getting
PRODUCT
an idea of what the bear got hedge funds are doing and the big investors in terms of what they're thinking. I love the Disney one because A blockbuster earnings looking to maybe even shake it up even more. Alright, that does it from now. We'll be back more in
less than an hour's
TIME
time. We're gonna talk about no real repeating had to say about the
fed
ORG
, our countdown to the clothes, just about 30 minutes from now, and then don't miss beyond the bell at the market clothes, our team back at
4 PM Wall St
TIME
time right here on
Bloomberg
PERSON
. You're listening to
Bloomberg
GPE
business week with
Carol Messer
PERSON
and
Bloomberg
PERSON
Quick Takes
Tim Stenovic
PERSON
On
Bloomberg
PERSON
radio. And you are listening and watching
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
on
this Monday
DATE
it is
August 15
DATE
Carolmaster located For you
today
DATE
. I'm really excited to dig into the Disney sort of shake up. I mean, what what do you wanna shake up? It seems like things are going pretty well. I know, I know and I'm interested about like he's pushing for an
ESPN
ORG
spin off. Yeah. Part of the Disney story has been just having all of these incredible brands under
one
CARDINAL
umbrella and then crisscrossing them across
the Disney University
ORG
. Yeah, so really just excited to dig into that conversation This isn't the
first
ORDINAL
activist investor we've seen
this year
DATE
. Exactly. Alright, more to come.
Broadcasting live from the
Bloomberg
NORP
interactive broker studio in
New York
GPE
Bloomberg
11 three oh
DATE
to
Washington DC
GPE
Bloomberg
PERSON
99 one
CARDINAL
to
Boston
GPE
Bloomberg
1061
DATE
to
San Francisco
GPE
Bloomberg
960
CARDINAL
to the country serious
XM
PERSON
channel
119
CARDINAL
and
Alright
ORG
, this is Bloover Business St,
Carol Master
PERSON
along with
Katie Griffell
PERSON
. She is in for
Tim Stenovic
PERSON
. On
this Monday
DATE
. Hey, coming up with a few things that we need to talk about including what it is, one of the most read stories on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
. It's also the Blue River Big Take. We're talking in
Wells Fargo
ORG
. Yeah, this is a great scoop. It's a it's cool cuz it's an ex But it's also a feature. Hannah love it. It does it all. Yes. So we're gonna get to it in just a moment.
First
ORDINAL
up though back to your stories and I'll look at the trading day. Hey
Charlie Palette
PERSON
. Hello there.
Exclusive but it's also a feature and I love it. Does it all? Yeah, so we're gonna get to it in just a moment.
First
ORDINAL
up though, back to your top business stories and I'll look at the trading day. Hey,
Charlie Palette
PERSON
. Hello, there. Trading law right now
Wells Fargo
ORG
down by
about 410
CARDINAL
to
one%
ORG
based in
San Francisco
GPE
stocks higher across the board with the
SNP
ORG
and
Asdank
ORG
they are all gaining back to work
Monday
DATE
we have got stocks advancing S and P up
13
CARDINAL
now again there are
310
CARDINAL
to one% One 10th of one% Tumbling by
two
CARDINAL
. Nine% west texas intermediate crude oil down
two
CARDINAL
The barrel to 89
44
CARDINAL
stocks higher megacaps catching bids in
his digest week
DATE
data on
New York
GPE
manufacturing and the
Chinese
NORP
economy it is
a busy week
DATE
for retail earnings with the likes of
Walmart Target Home Depot
ORG
and
Lowe
ORG
's reporting
this week
DATE
and
Wednesday
DATE
we get data on retail sales Consumers are still spending despite headwinds. The leader market has remained very robust. They still have income flowing in but they're apprehensive about what comes next for the economy. So, clearly the surveys have shown that cons You know still very solid spending trends. Walmart will be among the companies reporting earnings
tomorrow
DATE
morning target reports on
Wednesday
DATE
Home Depot
ORG
shares
today
DATE
they're down by
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
shares of Walmart they're up
six
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
target up now by
seven tenths
CARDINAL
of one%
Charlie Pellett
PERSON
that is a
Bloomberg
GPE
business splash. Pellet. Well, as we mentioned, we did wanna get to the Bloomberg Big Take. It's also among the most red on
the Bloomberg Tay
FAC
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
take by the way is our editorial team saying, folks, you gotta read this story and it's a
Bloomberg
GPE
exclusive and it is about the Big Bang probably the most associated
Katie
PERSON
with the
US
GPE
Mortgage industry. Big time of course, we're talking about
Wells Fargo Empire
ORG
of course after waves of scannel scandals
Hannah
PERSON
you join us on the phone now basically walk us through the premise of this big take and how we got Year. Hey, yeah. Thank you so much for having me. So, as you mentioned, like when you when you think
Wells Fargo
ORG
, you think the biggest
US
GPE
home runner like that was their whole thing for a number of
years
DATE
, right? Coming out of the financial crisis. In
2008
DATE
, a lot of the big banks who had dominated the space prior to the crisis. Pulled back Big way and
Wells Fargo
ORG
took the opposite approach and said no we're gonna really dig in you know at
one
CARDINAL
point they were Turning out
one
CARDINAL
in every
three
CARDINAL
home loans in the
US
GPE
and they were aiming for higher than that they're aiming for
40%
PERCENT
market share so that was that was then and then you know since then we've seen the rise of not make mortgage lenders like quick and stuff like that not
the Wells Fargo
ORG
has had a lot of issues some of which has been in it's mortgage And so now under
Charlie Sharp
PERSON
who has been the CEO for
almost 3 years
DATE
they are making plans to shrink in mortgage Is the mortgage business that are
two
CARDINAL
Wells Fargo's
ORG
top and bottom line? You know, that's a great question because it's less important today than it used to be. So, the history going back before even in
2008
DATE
, crisis was that they liked mortgage as a way to counterbalance you know, lower net interest income from lower interest rates and so they would get feast and lower rates when people wanted to refund, And so it would be a counterway to that but
Company
ORG
has gotten a lot bigger so it has become less ramen also it's a more competitive landscape
today
DATE
than it was you know one well so
The company has gotten a lot bigger so it has become less relevant. No, so it's more competitive landscape
today
DATE
than it was, you know, one well since Do we want it every three whole months? That's what I wanted to ask because that's such a crazy stat.
One
CARDINAL
of every
three
CARDINAL
home loans in the
US
GPE
with
Wells Fargo
ORG
kind of planning to step away here. Where does that leave the
US
GPE
mortgage market? Yeah well until they certainly aren't doing
one
CARDINAL
in
three
CARDINAL
today and it'll be really interesting to see you know they're still in the process of making plans of where they're gonna pull back you know I've I've wrote about their correspondent lending which is when they fund mortgages that are made by other firms and then servicing the like billing and collection Mortgages as as places where they're looking at but you know a lot of that is still being sketched out but it will be really interesting to see you know when all of a sudden done where
Well Fargo
ORG
fits into
the Greater Mortgage
LOC
picture hey This is just Tired of being criticized For you know rejecting refinancing for black homeowners for doing other things and being fine I'm just tired of this and if I get rid of this business I'm no longer on regulators radar Yeah that's also super interesting question because a lot of the Big Bang You know
Bank of America
ORG
did I wanna say over 100 1 billion of originations in
a single quarter
DATE
during the career like right after the crisis and they were down to
less than a 10th
CARDINAL
of that by
2018
DATE
. So a lot of these banks already kind of concluded that remember they were
like tens of billions of dollars
MONEY
and signs. I think it actually gone over 100 1 billion total The bank's behavior leading up to the crisis causing the crisis and was so well here is kind of you know in in something could the last big bank to come to this conclusion but also in
recent years
DATE
you know they have been very scandal written that's why
Charlie Sharp
PERSON
took over
3 years ago
DATE
and the mortgage business has been A key You know, trouble spots and then. And
Hannah
PERSON
, we have
about 40 seconds
TIME
left but you write that shrinking even in a downturn will be complicated. Tell us about some of those hurdles. Yeah so How many is worse the value of the loans that they hold will go down so that just makes it harder to You know for them to Potentially so about we'll do whatever they're gonna do Everyone is climbing to get so fast and things like that It is a great story. It does also make me think about, you know, of she talked about how to talk about more competition
today
DATE
in the mortgage business and all these upstarts, right? That have given Owners or perspective homeowners so many different options. Yeah. When it comes, when it comes to either mortgages or home equity. It is the Bloomberg Big Take. It's among the most red on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
today
DATE
and it's all about
Wells Fargo
ORG
, shrinking the biggest
US
GPE
mortgage empire after a bunch of scandals over
the last few years
DATE
. How to love it? She is finance At
Bloomberg News
ORG
check her out on
Twitter
PERSON
at
Hannah Levitt
PERSON
and she of course joining us on the phone from
New York City
GPE
. Right now, we do wanna get another check and update on
World National News
ORG
for that. Back to
DC
GPE
, the nation's capital in New
Nancy Lawrence
PERSON
. Hey,
Nancy
PERSON
. Thanks,
Carol
PERSON
. It is unclear if Will reveal any more about its investigation into classified documents found during a search of former President
Trump
PERSON
's moral logo estate but
Bloomberg
GPE
Washington
GPE
correspondent
Amary Hordurn Ports
PERSON
lawmakers want some details Along with vice chair
Marco Rubio
PERSON
obviously a
Republican
NORP
and a
Democrat
NORP
asking the
DOJ
ORG
and the office of
the National Intelligence Director
ORG
for the contents of what was in these documents
11
CARDINAL
sets of classified material
Ray Hordur
PERSON
and
Trump
ORG
has said any documents taken from his resort Declassified but for classified documents that involves a process that includes approval from other agencies.
Lindsay Graham
PERSON
says he plans to appeal
today
DATE
's ruling or acquiring him to testify before a grand jury in
Georgia
GPE
. The
Fulton County
GPE
District Attorney is investig
Alleged
ORG
interference in the
2020
DATE
presidential election attorneys for
Rudy Giuliani
PERSON
say they've been told
Giuliani
PERSON
is the target in that investigation While
House
ORG
Republicans
NORP
are out with this skating report on the
US
GPE
withdrawal from
AFL
ORG
Attorneys for
Rudy Giuliani
PERSON
say they've been told
Giuliani
PERSON
is the target in that investigation
Republicans
NORP
are out with this skating report on the
US
GPE
withdrawal from
Afghanistan
GPE
it was
1 year ago
DATE
today
US
GPE
troops left the country congressman
Mike McCall
PERSON
is the top
republican
NORP
on
the house foreign affairs committee
ORG
Cherry
PERSON
pics information and provides inaccurate characterizations Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and dawn bloomer quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalist and analyst to
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries I
Nancy Lyon Alright
PERSON
,
Nancy
PERSON
, thank you so much.
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in our
Washington DC
GPE
news around
99 one
CARDINAL
newsroom in the nation's capital. So, this definitely popped up on my radar
today
DATE
.
Carol Master
PERSON
on
Katie Greifield
PERSON
in for
Tim Stanovic
PERSON
on
this Monday
DATE
and the headline on it. Yeah, that will make you probably Google maps regularly miss leads people searching for abortion clinics and
Katie
PERSON
this is based on
Bloomberg
GPE
news doing a news analysis and what they found is that google maps routinely misleading people looking for abortion providers when users type the words abortion clinic into the map search bar crisis Pregnancy centers account for
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of the top
10
CARDINAL
search results on average across all
50
CARDINAL
US
GPE
states plus In
DC
GPE
in
13
CARDINAL
states including
Arkansas South Carolina
GPE
and
Idaho
GPE
where the procedures newly limited
five
CARDINAL
or more of the top
10
CARDINAL
results were for
CPC
ORG
's not abortion clinics. This
Bloomberg News
ORG
investigation it follows does
US Supreme Court
ORG
overturning row the wade and since then
10
CARDINAL
states have criminalized abortion
four
CARDINAL
have put time limits on the procedure and in some states including
Texas
GPE
asking someone for help accessing an abortion could lead to legal liability For that person of course that makes google the safer resource but this investigation shows maybe it isn't exactly the best case what it makes me wonder and I'm looking through this story a little bit about In a weather not people are paying like I know that usually comes up right if it's if it's paid it comes up in the search I'm assuming that it's not necessarily but it does you know they talk specifically in the story about
Shay
PERSON
19 year old
DATE
college sophomore living in
Orlando
GPE
Florida
GPE
when she discovered she was pregnant decided to have an abortion she didn't have anyone she could ask for guidance so she search Google for nearby clinic she said she wanted to find someone somewhere close to my partner so Tell him and bring him with me. She said in a recent interview Not so sure that it took her there. And of course she used google because it's the dominant navigation service in the
US
GPE
. It has over 118 1 million
monthly
DATE
users in the country in a
56%
PERCENT
share of the market among those mobile users. And people use Google big time when it comes to medical situations. This is blooper.
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com. From Bloomberg World Hankwaters I'm
Charlie Pelic
PERSON
we've got all advancing stocks are rising with megacaps catching bids as investors digest week economic data on
New York
GPE
manufacturing and the
Chinese
NORP
economy let us begin with crude oil because
278%
PERCENT
. On the tenure
2 year
DATE
320%
PERCENT
. Stocks Across the board. Among the names reporting earnings after the close of trading
today
DATE
's zip recruiter will also be hearing from Told hims. Again, recapping
the Dalby S
ORG
and
Panez
ORG
all advancing SMP now up by
16
CARDINAL
points. That is a game of
four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
. I'm
Charlie Pellet
PERSON
, that is a
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Alright,
Charlie
PERSON
, appreciate that.
Carol Master
PERSON
,
Katie Greyfeld
PERSON
here on
this Monday
DATE
. She's in for
Tim
PERSON
's Denovic. Who's back
tomorrow
DATE
? And Listening and watching
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week. This story by the way
Katie
PERSON
comes from
Bloomberg
GPE
business week. It's found on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
and a
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com slash business week. It's about how the work from home revolution We thought it would be a big step to women might finally finally be having it all but as
Bloomberg
PERSON
business we contributor and
Peterson
PERSON
writes it is also become a trap for women so let's see what she has to say she joins us from
Lumi Island
LOC
Finally finally be having it all but as
Bloomberg
PERSON
business we contributor and
Peterson
PERSON
writes it is also become a trap for women so let's see what she has to say she joins us from
Lumi Island Washington
FAC
hey
Anne
PERSON
good to have you here with
Katie
PERSON
and myself so Was I I feel like this was expected to be the great leveler if you will and it hasn't necessarily working from home played out like we thought for women. You know it's hard because I think like before the pandemic if you would say to Mom's in particular in Henrisexual families if you would say hey what if you could do your job from home You could be there for pick up and facilitate a bunch of other stuff. And you could figure out where work would fit in your own life. And you wouldn't have to commute and you wouldn't have to necessarily like spend all the time putting on work clothes everyday like Would you choose that Hey and I think a lot of people said yes I would choose that it would make my life a lot easier And what we've seen Which is not surprising given the state of different supports in
United States
GPE
in particular right now. Instead a lot of women who are have flexible work options have become a sort of
one
CARDINAL
woman safety net. So they are providing
Sort
PERSON
of support and care that maybe they split more equally with their husbands maybe the school district provided a bit more of or maybe even just like child could care infrastructure provided more of And so there's so many different
Combinations
ORG
that flexible work as a woman could take and it's a beautifully reported piece you say that you've conducted
hundreds
CARDINAL
of interviews with women over
the past 2 years
DATE
so I mean it sort of walk us through the comment denominator because Maybe their spouse is in the office maybe their spouse is home what was the sort of when you boiled all down the common element there? I would say that the people who are struggling the most would burn out right now. Are people to Are working these flexible sorts of jobs where they've Much more control How much time they're spending at home? And their partner, especially in heterosexual marriages, doesn't have as much flex, or is not taking as much flex. And so what they're doing is they're essentially working this full-time job. For pay That they've been working for a long time but then they're also taking on even more of that unpaid labor in home and a lot of that includes workout and called like the mental level right so like keeping the list in their head of all of the different things that have to be happening right now and so they are working on time on their salary job and then also taking up Lot more of that other unpaid labor and that includes even things like oh they don't have enough bus drivers for the school district So I guess that I will pick up my kid every day after school instead of them taking the bus home Something like My kids sick and has to stay home it used to be that my husband and I would rotate who would stay home with him but since I'm already in the home I guess I'll just stay here and my work will be affected and then I'll need to stay up late to put in that work that I missed. So basically it's like what's going on in relationships? So here we are. We've gone through the pandemic. Working from home. Women are like This could be really cool, great, give me some flexibility but still pursue my career and continue to move ahead. What's happening is what's happening internally within relationships where the husband or the partner I guess has gone the male partner predominantly maybe in in some cases has gone back to work and so when stuff happens at home the woman is continue to work from home but also adding on everything else I love there's a picture I'm looking at that looked out at the terminal of like the
1950
DATE
's Sending your kids off to school you know but and she's kinda getting stuck. Yup. If they are making more money right if their job is extensively within the paradigm of the relationship the more important one If they have sex they are still
Hey Making more money right if their job is extensively within the paradigm of the relationship the more important one If they have sex they are still the one who's taking up all of this extra labor And I think it's really frustrating. Because like what is the solution? And something I ask some people. I'm like is there anything that your company could do? A better policy for you and you know everyone Small complaints about how their companies have orchestrated Work policies like there are things that absolutely need to get better but to the person every single person told me that like no this is a societal thing and it's also a relationship thing. And it's really hard to fix. Right. To what I wanted touch on which is where does this go from here to because back to the question you posted the beginning you know if I could tell you you wouldn't have to go into the office put on work clothes you could be at home in these flexible work arrangements I my gut feeling is that a lot Or even with this this burnout this sort of
one
CARDINAL
woman safety net that you described it doesn't feel like going into the office would fix that. Backup care right? What were people doing before? Right? They're they're we had Plan for like oh if the kid gets sick we rotate turned off. And because we both conceive of our job is is equal, right? That we would one person goes and gets that person or like school districts has more bus drivers and really made that a priority So he thinks that there are different ways of You can solve this problem But we're just like instead we're people I think are it's been normalized that women are taking on more and more of this work and if you look at things like the
Deloitte
ORG
study of women in work that the numbers of burnout amongst And then mothers in particular in in office jobs is just skyrocketing and something has to give and a lot of cases they think you have women who are like I can't do it anymore but the only way to make our family work now is for me not to work at all. For me to drop out of the workforce and that's a different problem. Yeah. What? Well, it's interesting, right?
Katie
PERSON
, in terms of Very tight labor market. We talk about, you know, people who are just not coming back to the workforce and you wonder how many, although we've seen some stronger numbers in terms of women. Mm hmm. Yup. But you do wonder, you do wonder how this impacts it going forward. And I really, as
Katie
PERSON
said, Well and beautifully reported story really appreciate getting some time to talk with you and
Peter Sim
PERSON
contributor up
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week on the phone from
Lumie Island
FAC
Washington
GPE
and this store you can find on the Bloomberg Terminal
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com slash business
week
DATE
it's All these things from the pandemic maybe not playing out as we anticipated it. I know. I know. At least in this point this peace points out. At least kids are back in school. For the large part, not doing virtual school anymore. So maybe one thing that they can cross off there. What's going on in the markets and update in
just a moment
TIME
Platform coverage ahead of the
US
GPE
market close starts right now. This is countdown to the clothes
just 60 minutes
TIME
left in your trading session
Caroline High
PERSON
Taylor Rich
PERSON
Shinali
Bassak
PERSON
all the jokes in here meanwhile we go to our colleagues
Caramassa
PERSON
can he grow We together welcome fully across our audience as
Radio
ORG
and
YouTube
ORG
. A time to dissect what is volumes muted but stocks managing to go higher just Pretty dreary data. Alright, so should we be asking our stocks getting over bought at this point? A story that jumped out at me on the terminal and also a chart. Let's bring it up for a TV audience and I'll talk about it. A little bit for a radio audience. It looks at the percentage of S and Members with
14 day
DATE
RSI. This is relative strength index. When you're over 70 it indicates an overbot technical indicator. It will be move up. You do wonder whether or not now it's time for a tech Correction right now
RSI
ORG
and the S and P 500 shows that the share of
US
GPE
stocks running hot is at the highest level
Katie
PERSON
in
over 2 years
DATE
so over bought in a big way You can prove that with what we're seeing out of other asset classes. I know
1 day
DATE
doesn't make a You're looking at the dollar maintaining that bid as well. It feels a little bit out of step. Well at the moment we're seeing what is sort of a market that doesn't know what step to be taking whether we should push on higher whether we think this is some sort of bear market rally on
the day
DATE
though we we decide we're gonna go up
four tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent hasn't been the same across the trading day but on as we edge towards the close we're up
17
CARDINAL
points on the S and P we're up
156
CARDINAL
points that's
four
CARDINAL
Tense of a percent on the Dow Jones. We're seeing the Nasdaq up and the winning set of benchmarks on
the day
DATE
. We're up
six tens of percent
PERCENT
in terms of big tech and that's really what's pushing us higher across some of the major benchmarks. It's
only five
CARDINAL
points to the upside and rust to 2000 Calls its way back into the green.
Three
CARDINAL
points so
Taylor
PERSON
. Heading to the closing bell more individual movers are going a little bit higher and more individual sectors should only I should say as well moving higher so you're getting a little bit more of a tilt here than we had
about an hour
TIME
Certainly to the upside the big one we just had a great blumber intelligence segment on this the outperformance of the staples you're now a one and then you get real estate intact what drop
about six tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
maybe that's what Two. Three% yeah I do wanna bring it to some of these individual movers
Taylor
PERSON
because Do have aluminum which is rebounding to the tune of
about 10%
PERCENT
today
DATE
after a steep drop
The big lager on
the day
DATE
that sector still down
now
DATE
.
Two
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
. Yeah, I do wanna bring you to some of these individual movers.
Taylor
PERSON
, because we do have Rebounding to the tune of
about 10%
PERCENT
today
DATE
after a steep drop off on
Friday
DATE
you saw them report I disappointing forecast you did hear the CEO discussing
Illumina
GPE
's work on the monkey pox virus in an interview over
the weekend
DATE
and again recooping
Software
ORG
. Remember, this is a company that rejected and unsolicited proposal to merge with app
11
CARDINAL
. The stock is now down almost six%.
Therapeutics
PERSON
. This is a huge gainer in the Rus 2000 of course you know another benchmark everyone is watching closely up
52%
PERCENT
on some positive clinical And all of this as we try and digest the macro pitch, the macro picture of weakness being painted in
China
GPE
. The macro picture of concern with the manufacturing data in
New York
GPE
. And I want to shine a light on what's happening across the commodities spectrum. We've gone stocks and I wanna gather Asset to look at what is copper on the downside by
one
CARDINAL
. Four% Alan minimum as well but this is really showing what's happening in iron or and indeed in oil as well really metals and oil been both falling over
the last couple of months
DATE
and on
the day
DATE
certainly we have all currently off by
two
CARDINAL
basically call it three% couple of by
one
CARDINAL
. Four% iron off by Two% as we worry about that growth data. Heard about
Grossedo
LOC
over in
China
GPE
certainly worried about growth data here in
the United States
GPE
do we cut up with
David Western
PERSON
earlier on
Bloomberg TV
ORG
he's of course macro CEO and
the Boom Bus
LAW
. Com co CEO Which gain some momentum after those weaker than expected inflation prints
last week
DATE
Rubini as I said never Things that thinking is a bit crazy. So Market's expecting a peaver in the fat capates
next year
DATE
to me sounds delusional but even if you are at
three
CARDINAL
.
Eight
CARDINAL
we have inflation still well above target around eight% falling on the gradually calling fragrance around sixish you're still negative territory so the fat funds rate should be going Well above four%
four and a half
DATE
to five% my view to really push inflation towards too And then of course there's no rubini earlier on
Blue Bar TV
ORG
with
David Weston
PERSON
also of
NYU
ORG
but this is some of the conversations we've had here right that even though we got weaker than
Katie
PERSON
there's still historically high and it's gonna take a while to bring him down. That print. I've tried to remind that that there's still a lot of wood to chop before we get inflation under control. Don't get too ahead of yourselves. Doesn't look like socks are necessarily listening. They're not buying it. At least for
today
DATE
. It's hard
Signal
ORG
that that gats in terms of being a little bit of
Indicator
NORP
and look at the yields of course falling on
the day
DATE
but the long-term trend as well as we heard from
Marky Patel
PERSON
the top of the
two
CARDINAL
from a
350
CARDINAL
in the woes and the pressure that puts on equities Further out the big decline you've had in the old space I've gotta say the question you've been asking all day can we call The end of the bear market into a bowl market a bear market rally I think this is gonna set us up for pretty historic end of the year guys because if Mostly selling out of a stock positions and only adding to a little more while others like
George Soros
PERSON
adding to big tech And yet we also see
Andreson
PERSON
and
Harrowitz
GPE
writing its largest check ever to
one
CARDINAL
single company and guess who runs None other but
Adam Newman
PERSON
The
first
ORDINAL
time around, right? City of
California
GPE
this month
DATE
and really all about sort of difficulty and how difficult is the build something at the moment and how
Difficult
ORG
. The housing markets. How broken it is. There's not we got so much housing data
this week
DATE
. Hey, here have real estate once again. I've gotta say is he going to face the
Mans
NORP
that everybody else is now facing where you must be profitable Asap. Otherwise, this is
This week
DATE
. Hey, here. Real estate. Once again, I've gotta say, is he going to face the same demands that everybody else is now facing? Where you must be profitable Asap. Otherwise, this is not gonna cut it. It's for us. Wonder if the paradigm changes even for investors I love that you guys talked about housing in general we continue to see weakness in terms of some of the housing data continues to come out our vincola writing about you know that typically we see some housing declines and then Employment which has been such a strong thing when that starts to come undone maybe then the Pivoting perhaps I don't know Big call. We got housing triple tape coming up after the bow. Alright, nice teas, nice cheese, and we've got more to come and just about, ooh, a little bit under an hour. We're gonna continue our market conversation. Our cross platform coverage on radio, TV, and
YouTube
ORG
beyond the belly will take you down to the clothes on this
Monday
DATE
Bloomberg
PERSON
radio Purchase this
Bloomberg
GPE
business week
Carol Master
PERSON
Katie Greyfeld
PERSON
in for
Tim Sandovic
PERSON
on
this Monday
DATE
we will get back to our team I'm looking at the equity market moving up towards the ties right now yeah as we know though a lot can change serving
the last hour
TIME
the last 30 minutes
TIME
of trading it feels like that's been the story of the summer but yeah definitely a On mood at least if you look at the equity market not so much in the bond market but it feels like those
two
CARDINAL
asset classes have been out of step for a while now. Yeah, absolutely. But interesting to
kinda
GPE
keep an eye on it. I mentioned housing in the connection with employment courtesy of our
Vince Signarella
PERSON
who's got a piece out. And he says,
Picks
GPE
and
Valleys
GPE
in the index for About home builders I guess and housing sentiment pick it in the index precede turns in the
US
GPE
jobs market with
about an 18 month lag
DATE
the prior
NHB National Association of Home Builder Indexes Peak
ORG
was in
November of 2020
DATE
so you know this is you look across assets Economic data points and markets and we know you know you just look for those connections and I think that's why
Vince
PERSON
continues to be Bearish. Pretty bearish, pretty critical of the federal reserve, but seems like people on both end of the spectrum happen. I would say that as long as the inflation prints continue to be high historically, even though the trend line looks like things are starting to come undone and still there high, why would the
fed
ORG
back off at this point? I know, in this case, it really feels like the
Fed
ORG
is worried about the absolute level. We always hear it's about Outright level there. Yeah, I think that's a really good point. Alright, can you watch the markets as we mentioned equities? Pretty much hovering near their highs of this session. We'll have more on the markets and we're gonna look specifically at
one
CARDINAL
name on the move in particular. We're talking about
the Disney Company
ORG
. Right now, though, we wanna get an update on
World of National News
ORG
for that. Back to
DC
GPE
and
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
. Hey,
Nancy
PERSON
. Hey,
Carol
PERSON
. Members of
congress
ORG
are putting pressure on the
US
GPE
government to tell them what was in the classified documents seized it former President
Trump
PERSON
's home. Send it intelligence committee leaders have requested an assessment of political risks from
the justice department
ORG
and the director of national intelligence
Trump
ORG
says he declassified the documents but former under secretary of homeland security susan spalding tells
Bloomberg
PERSON
that term top secret alone means you must handle it differently That means that revealing that information was determined at the time to be something that would cause exceptionally great To our national security. Classifying it against the potential damage to a harm to
American
NORP
To our national interest of doing so. Former under secretary of
Homeland Security
ORG
,
Suzanne Spalding
PERSON
, and another development
today
DATE
,
Trump
ORG
says the agents who searched his marlago home took
three
CARDINAL
of his passports when he says had expired. He calls that
third
ORDINAL
world Word from
the justice department
ORG
on whether passports were taken or any potential reasoning behind it if true.
Britney Griner's
PERSON
defense attorneys announced
today
DATE
they are appealing a
Russian
NORP
court's verdict against her for drug possession in trafficking. The WNBA star who was
Britney Griner's
PERSON
defense attorneys announced
today
DATE
they are appealing a
Russian
NORP
court's verdict against her for drug possession in trafficking the WNBA star who was convicted
This month
DATE
played for a
Russian
NORP
club during the WNBA off season she was arrested at a
Moscow
GPE
airport in
February
DATE
after screeners found vape cartridges with a small amount of cannabis oil in her luggage Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalist and analyst and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries alright now thank you so much
Carol
PERSON
Master
Katie Greyfield
PERSON
we've
Three
CARDINAL
stories I wanna get to that to deal with our climate right now and what's going on so let's go to the
first
ORDINAL
one much of
the United States
GPE
will be an extreme heat belt by the
2050
DATE
's so if you think it's hot out there
Katie
PERSON
right now consider
the summer of 2053
DATE
let's take you there Researchers at
one
CARDINAL
.
St Foundation
ORG
it's a
New York
GPE
nonprofit that studies climate risk they've done in a report published
today
DATE
they predict that in
three decades
DATE
more than 100 1 million
QUANTITY
Americans
NORP
will live in an extreme heat belt where
at least 1 day
DATE
a year the heat index it's going to exceed
125
CARDINAL
ยฐF Is the top level of the national weather services heat index or the extreme danger level? It's not good. I have to say,
this weekend
DATE
, you know, we're talking. We were both outside a bunch. Enjoyed it. It was in
the 80s
DATE
. To me, it felt like delicious. A cool wave. It was so nice. I compared to
the 90s
DATE
and the the So now I tried to think of
125
CARDINAL
ยฐ.
Explode
GPE
. Brought a cardigan out with me somewhere
this past week
DATE
. Has released a free web tool that lets
US
GPE
users search
US
GPE
addresses to determine their heat risk so there's not at least. Alright, we're gonna get
Two
CARDINAL
more stories we wanna get to so rapid round the
Rhine River
LOC
water level at a
Keyway
NORP
point hit a new low risking the transit a fuel and other goods as
Europe
LOC
's climate crisis exacerbates its energy supply crush we talked about it a lot last week Search the
Bloomberg
PERSON
and
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com. You can hear more and then we gotta do this. I will leave
More than 500 1 million dollars
QUANTITY
in
Russian
NORP
firms around the time of
Moscow
GPE
's invasion of
Ukraine
GPE
in a sign of the careful political position
the Gulf State
LOC
has maintained with its opic plus partner It was a lot of energy investments. I would believe so. Kingdom holding, it's invested
more than $three
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
globally since
2020
DATE
. So, this is just the latest in around. Printal leads, firm investing in gas prom,
Ross Neft
PERSON
,
Luke Isle
PERSON
, yeah. There you go. Energy. Anyway, check it out. It's a great read. Interesting read right on the balloon. This is
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
.
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com,
the Bloomberg Business app
ORG
. This is a
bloomberg
PERSON
business flash. From
Bloomberg World
ORG
Hank Waters
PERSON
I'm
Charlie
PERSON
we've got
43 minutes
TIME
to go ahead of the closing valve but how the S and P knows stack all pushing higher in fact we're holding close to session highs let's head right over to the
first
ORDINAL
word breaking news desk for
today
DATE
's
afternoon
TIME
call here
Bill Maloney
PERSON
. Hey, man. Good
afternoon
TIME
. Try that's right. You were stocks in the green. After a slow start, the
Dallas
GPE
currently up
154
CARDINAL
points. Sesames gained
19
CARDINAL
more than as that is up by
92
CARDINAL
.
Us
GPE
10 year old
DATE
at
279%
PERCENT
. Gold is down
23
CARDINAL
oil is also in the red and bitcoin is lower by
one%
ORG
among the main
11
CARDINAL
SB sectors
Energy
ORG
materials were in the red and leaders to the upside and the visa and proctor and gamble while
chevron
ORG
fell
two
CARDINAL
. Two% and led to the downside. Hey, another news
Dow Jones
ORG
put that
Elliot
PERSON
management has taken a large position in cardinal health and
third
ORDINAL
point has a new In disney after earnings reports ยข10 music reports after the bell lie from the
first
ORDINAL
of breaking news that's gone
Bill Maloney
PERSON
Charlie okay thank you very much
Bill Maloney
PERSON
and the story from the
Bloomberg
PERSON
crossing now Live that is a Business flash. Alright, got it
Charlie
PERSON
. Thank you so much for that update. Well, as you know, one of the big stories certainly on
the this Monday
DATE
is the news out of
China
GPE
. Shocking with another disappointing batch of economic news that we had a Interest rate cut with more on the world
second
ORDINAL
largest economy let's bring in the cohost of
Bloomberg Daybreak
PERSON
eight
CARDINAL
. Yeah, yeah. Wait, did I tell you something you didn't know? Oh, we were here
last night
TIME
watching the news break, you know, every data point that was released. Industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment, all disappointed.
We were here
last night
TIME
watching the news break, you know, every data point that was released, industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment, all disappointing, and on top of that, they broke out the unemployment rate, right? Overall, the unemployment rate wasn't as bad as feared but if you break that out and look at Unemployment. Right. Okay.
20%
PERCENT
. That's astounding. There is just so much negative sentiment right now in the
Chinese
NORP
economy. Even before the date of broke, over
the weekend
DATE
, we had
Data
PERSON
on aggregate financing. Right. It was missed by a mile. It was
half
CARDINAL
of what economist had forecast. So, there is enough money floating in the system right now. Nobody wants it. Let's talk about what this big batch of bad data force the prompted maybe not forced. Well, the data came out after the cut in the medium term lending facility but I guess and and that was unexpected, right? A tent, it was only
10
CARDINAL
Delete 10 basic boards With rate cut. Well, because everybody in our survey was expecting it to remain at
285
CARDINAL
. So, a
10
CARDINAL
basis point cut but it's kind of illustrative, right? It indicates Concern they have about slower growth and this is such a tight rope that they're on right now given the slump in the property market to
one
CARDINAL
thing that they don't wanna do is stimulate to an excessive level again and create another Well, this is where I wanted to go to because there's so, you know, I love to go to the most red and like there's just so many stories on
China
GPE
, different angles, whether it's, you know, restricting more listings here in
the United States
GPE
or is talking about growth but then you had JP
Morgan Doug
ORG
and you talk about housing saying no one immune amid the
China
GPE
property term oil. I mean Talking about what
Chinese
NORP
developers
30
CARDINAL
year% and year
DATE
decline for
Jeff Ernie
PERSON
. But they've taken out mortgages already on these properties Development projects that I have not gone They're not completed and so you've had a boycott of mortgages which goes back to the sentiment issue how we sent them in right now on the mainland Over
the weekend
DATE
and
Ikea
ORG
store. Did you see the footage? I didn't see the footage. It's crazy.
One
CARDINAL
person may have come into contact with a person who was diagnosed with a virus. They shut the entire COVID oh policy has been It's not worked out well and and and I think that's another driver of the eroding sentiment. Youtube sorry for everybody in radio but it's basically people
Chinese
NORP
people trying to and saying hi right? Right. Trying to escape this idea store after officials have tried to lock them in and they're just swarming to get out What? We had another survey that we published over
the weekend
DATE
. We interviewed him when I say we am talking about the people of
Bloomberg News
ORG
. A
dozen
CARDINAL
export managers. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No. It's Collect
the royal week
DATE
. They were talking to exporters in
China
GPE
orders have dried up Is so much concern now about Export demand exports were
one
CARDINAL
of the things in the last round of trade data that really held up relatively well domestic demand is cratered I say that I don't wanna be hyperbolic it's weak but if you look at the currency
today
DATE
it's down right now this is the offshore
Chinese
NORP
you want down I want about
one%
ORG
against Green back and then to confirm everything we're talking about in the macro look at the price of crude oil I mean that's also a kind of Pretty much. Yeah. Pretty much. Well, I wanna talk about bonds specifically because I caught my eye that after this cut by the PBOC, you saw a big rally in
Chinese
NORP
dead. I don't know.
Kinda
GPE
got me thinking. I think we're down
about seven and a half
CARDINAL
Points on
the 10 year 266
DATE
.
POC
ORG
is easing sort of against their will here. You have every other central bank in the world at this point. It feels like hiking. I think they're behind the curve. We talked about being behind the curve and that's one of the things that I think has been operating you know they've got the party
congress
ORG
in in
October
DATE
and this is she trying to get a
third
ORDINAL
term Which would be historic. Go back to the idea that they're on a tight rope right now
In in
October
DATE
and this is she trying to get a
third
ORDINAL
term which would be historic Go back to the idea that they're on a tight rope right now and so I think from the macro you've gotta believe that the economy is slowing and we used to talk about not only the
US
GPE
but
Europe
LOC
being a driver it's a key market for
Chinese
NORP
exports look what's happening in
Europe
LOC
right now they're dealing with recession probably So can
China
GPE
inc be reliant on the
European
NORP
economy to save it? I know not not so much. It's such an export light economy, right? So, if it's down in
Europe
LOC
and you think about the
US
GPE
where we've talked about the consumer holding up but that comes in what is it mean for
China
GPE
? How much so is present do you really politically at risk care and
Doug
PERSON
just got about Hey that's a tough call I mean because the polyp bureau I mean this is the kind of the
25
CARDINAL
people within the the upper echelon of
the Chinese Communist Party
ORG
I don't know what happens in the backroom. It's such a black box. No, there's no visibility, no transparency. I don't even wanna go out on a limits in in speculate on that. Well, it's a lot cheap. On top of and you guys certainly do it at a day breakage at work. Can you join us every day? Sure. Great. I love that. Thank you. Well, I thought you're gonna come in and talk meme stocks. Right here on
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
Broadcasting live from the
Bloomberg
GPE
get interactive broker studio in
New York
GPE
Bloomberg
11 three oh
DATE
to
Washington DC
GPE
Bloomberg
PERSON
99 one
CARDINAL
to
Boston
GPE
Bloomberg
1061
DATE
to
San Francisco
GPE
Bloomberg
960
CARDINAL
to the
Iheartradio
ORG
. Com. On
this Monday
DATE
what do you think about an
ESPN
ORG
spin off Doesn't really watch sports. I have no feelings but I know a lot of people care. Some thoughts on it. The activist investor. Which we will take it into. Alright
first
ORDINAL
off let's get back to your top business stories he's watching Disney he's watching all of the equity market here's
Charlie
PERSON
They're all higher on this back to work
Monday
DATE
right now S and P up
18
CARDINAL
up by
about four
CARDINAL
tenths
one%
NORP
the dial holding close to session highs up
147
CARDINAL
now up by
4:10
TIME
: to
one%
ORG
now the stack up
90
CARDINAL
that is a game of
seven tenths
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
now stack
100
CARDINAL
index up
eight
CARDINAL
tenths of
one% Russell
ORG
two Turning around from earlier losses
the Russell 2000
WORK_OF_ART
up now by
just about three
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
stocks rising with megacaps catching bids
Russell 2000 turning around from earlier losses
the Russell 2000
WORK_OF_ART
up now by
just about three
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
stocks rising with mega caps catching bids is investors digest
week
DATE
data on
New York
GPE
manufacturing and the
Chinese
NORP
economy again that
10 year old
DATE
278%
PERCENT
. Gold down
one
CARDINAL
.
Two% Cross
ORG
mark global investments and she says despite improving CPI and PPI numbers
last week
DATE
Inflation cannot be ignored. There's wages. Call it from the labor market and financial conditions are actually easier now than they were back in
March
DATE
. Steady rallies since
the end of June
DATE
and an influx of cash into
Carnival corp
ORG
down
one 10th
DATE
of
one%
ORG
and
Norwegian
NORP
cruise line holdings up by
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
so again recapping with
just about 26 minutes
TIME
to go ahead of the clothes we're at the best level of
the day
DATE
right now
Bloomberg
PERSON
business flash. Alright,
Charlie
PERSON
, appreciate that update. Alright, so dear
Bob
PERSON
, I like your company. Make a few changes sincerely yours download okay that's not exactly what he wrote Close though. Hey portal To Disney CEO
Bob Chapec
PERSON
after taking a significant state of the company and suggesting some changes at the
Magic Kingdom
FAC
Analyst This calling for a spin off of the
ESPN
ORG
sports network have to assume that I can go haven't done this for a reason. Yes. Yes. So Something that has come up so many times
Katie
PERSON
and
Carol
PERSON
are over
the the past few years
DATE
I'm in constant questions about whether it makes sense
four
CARDINAL
ESPN
ORG
to be spun off just kind of given the secular challenges in the linear TV Business model there's a reason they're not doing it and that reason is cash flow tons and tons of cash flow from ESP and almost four and a half
one 1 billion dollars
MONEY
every year and remember this is almost Percent of you know
Disney
ORG
's profits so it is a crucial part of their business and one that they're not gonna be willing to let go of their easy Be like an activist investor saying hey apple we'd really love it if you'd spin off the
iPhone
ORG
in terms of sales let me this is just so important to Disney as you said. Absolutely it is a critical part of the business yes agreed there are lots of challenges in the business models especially given that court cutting is accelerating The whole streaming part of the business yes they are having pretty good growth there for streaming they they reported some fantastic numbers
just a few days ago
DATE
they More than if you just look at their streaming portfolio now they actually have more subscribers than
Netflix
PERSON
has But remember streaming is not generating any profits for this company just yet. So, getting that cash flow, getting those
four and a half
DATE
one 1 million dollars
MONEY
from
ESPN
ORG
,
Urin
PERSON
and It's so important to fund all of that content investments industryming platform all the technological improvements so absolutely
Alright
ORG
. This would make a little bit more sense but it does feel a bit unintuitive. Let's talk about some of the other suggestions here. We have
third
ORDINAL
point, also urging Disney to integrate Hulu directly into the Disney Plus platform. Of course, that's the
Flagship
ORG
streaming operation. The logic there on the
third
ORDINAL
point side.
Urging Disney to integrate Hulu directly into the Disney Plus platform. Of course, that's the company's flagship streaming operation. The logic there on the
third
ORDINAL
point side is that this would save money, reignite growth, and domestic streaming. Does that logic hold water with you? I think it does to a certain extent again. This is again been one of those constant conundrums for
Disney
ORG
. Remember Disney has a
66%
PERCENT
Take in Hulu this is jointly owned with
Comcast
ORG
and the the
two
CARDINAL
companies actually have an agreement between them which allows You know Disney to buy back to
33%
PERCENT
in
January of 2024
DATE
the problem really here is value They have agreed to a minimum valuation of about
27 1 billion dollars
MONEY
which
Disney
ORG
has to chill out
at least nine 1 billion dollars
QUANTITY
but contest is going to want much much more and the
two
CARDINAL
parties have been in arbitration But again this price is going to be a major sticking point which is why Disney does not want to rush into it is is what I'm thinking Disney costumer among the highest in the industry we believe Disney significantly under earns relative to its potential we urge the company to embark on a cost cutting program that addresses both margins and the disposal of excess under performing assets He write in that regarding I am reading from his letter. So he is right when he says that they have the highest cost in the industry so remember this year Disney is going to pay out
30 1 billion dollars
MONEY
in terms of content cost Platform Now that that is the highest by the way in the industry but that's that's it the reason is being that much is because of majority of it is really because of sports right so you know they're being
about eight to nine 1 billion dollars
CARDINAL
in sports trades and that's why
ESPN
ORG
is the number one cable network when it comes to earning affiliate fees in the industry that's what drives the
four and a half
DATE
one 1 million
CARDINAL
Also remember this is the biggest movie studio in the world they are
half
CARDINAL
of the global box office so in order to generate you know
11 10
DATE
or 10 11 1 billion dollars in global box offices they have to make significant investments again a major part of the cross there My my only contention with the cost argument is you wanna build a streaming platform that is you know the leader and you have to be careful because you know content is the key to differentiator Yeah, right? We say content is king. When you got somebody like
Thor
GPE
,
Love and Thunder
WORK_OF_ART
, like I'm in. I'm just gonna tell you, I'm all in an
Avengers
NORP
. Yeah, I don't watch movies. Hey, Facebook. It sounds great. Always greatest guitar oregano and she's
Bloomberg
PERSON
intelligence, technology, media, analyst, joining us on the phone in
New Jersey
GPE
,
Gita
GPE
, thank you. Alright, back to
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
in
DC
GPE
with
World of National News
ORG
. Hey,
Dan
PERSON
. Thanks,
Carol
PERSON
. Rudy,
Giuliani
PERSON
, is a target of a
Georgia
GPE
criminal probe, a potential election fraud,
Robert Castello
PERSON
, a lawyer forgulani says Former
New York
GPE
mayor's legal team was informed
today
DATE
he was a target of the probe not just a witness Acres are seeking additional information concerning the
FBI
ORG
search at former President
Trump
PERSON
's
Mara Lago Estate
ORG
leaders on both sides of the aisle are requesting a briefing from federal authorities
Bloomberg
PERSON
contributor
Rick Davis Revelations
PERSON
about the kinds of document cease is not good news for
Republicans
NORP
. This is such an overreach what a historical thing to search a former president's home and then they see the list of items that were taken including top secret material regardless of what it's about is top secret material in fact we're not even supposed to know what it's all about it's top secret material the more you say top secret sitting in his you know dungeon with a lock on Is not gonna be good for
republicans
NORP
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
contributor
Rick Davis
PERSON
. Trump
today
DATE
said among the items taken from his home were
three
CARDINAL
passports including
one
CARDINAL
that had expired. There's been no confirmation on that from
the justice department
ORG
. A new study predicts a
third
ORDINAL
of
Americans
NORP
will live in so called heat belt within
the next 30 years
DATE
nonprofit research firm
first
ORDINAL
street foundations as a
1000
CARDINAL
counties from
the Gulf Coast
LOC
to
Chicago
GPE
we'll see at
1 day
DATE
a year when the heat index goes
above 125
CARDINAL
ยฐ And parts of
the Pacific Northwest
ORG
will wilt under near record heat
this week
DATE
as a high pressure dome builds across the region taxing power supplies with residents cranking up those
Conditioners
ORG
. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take on
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
Eyes with residents cranking up those air conditioners. Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take on
Nancy Lyons Alright
PERSON
,
Nancy
PERSON
, thank you so much. Our aerial agami saying, get your socket ranch ready cuz it's time kids to make a peloton. Yeah, peloton to embrace, build it yourself, bikes, of course, is it Tries to cut cost currently when a customer or an orders a bike from
Peloton
PERSON
do you come in is delivered instead of by a professional in the users home very dignified but the idea going forward is that it's too Be designed the bike so that the customers can unbox and assemble it So there you go Okay, you can't see me. You can't if you're watching
YouTube
ORG
. I'm like, look at
Katie
PERSON
, like dumbfounded and raising my like, it just feels like
Peloton
PERSON
is throwing
a ton
QUANTITY
of stuff out there. Yeah. And hoping for investors to It's it's like it's it's very Ikea of them. I don't have you ever put together like one of those. The bully shelf. Whole after i got married that was
one
CARDINAL
of the first I know it was like years ago we bought like this big cabinet My husband I think we both were like I was gonna say ask my husband I've never put together anything for my
Kia
ORG
I wanna get
Caroline Hide's
PERSON
thoughts on this though like I know she loves hers. Well, it's kind of a high-end So do you just say this is what we're gonna be and just lean in all. I I don't know. I I don't know. Stock is up
one%
ORG
.
Today
DATE
was up
almost 14%
PERCENT
on
Friday
DATE
. It was up three%. No actually it wasn't. Yeah up
seven and a half percent
DATE
on
Wednesday
DATE
. I mean they've been throwing about just stuff out there. Absolutely I mean think about the news that we got
last week
DATE
that You buy one if you have to put it together. I complain about it on social media But remember
Peloton
ORG
said it would lay off but
100
CARDINAL
workers that was just on
Friday
DATE
raise prices if it's equipment and also outsource deliveries and some customer service functions and of course build it yourself bikes. Yeah. It seems to be part of that effort. An investors love On
Friday
DATE
let's start this. Performing this sort of pivot or trying to at least gotta give it to him. Definitely shaking it up and investors know a single bit
today
DATE
.
Markets headlines in breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com
the Bloomberg Business app
ORG
Call Woodberg World
ORG
Hank Waters
PERSON
I'm
Charlie Pallock
PERSON
we have got
13 minutes
TIME
to go ahead of the closing bell with a dowel the S and P and no stack all retreating star are all higher I should say stocks are advancing mega caps catching bibs as investors digest
week
DATE
data on
New York
GPE
menu facturing and the
Chinese Stocks
ORG
higher across the board with the S and P now up by
19
CARDINAL
very close to the best level up by
about five
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
the Dow up 100 Five up
five
CARDINAL
tenths and we have got The Down Jones Decline of
one
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
west
Texas
GPE
intermediate cru Up by
four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
I'm
Charlie Pellet
PERSON
that is a
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash alright
Charlie
PERSON
thank you so much it is
349
CARDINAL
on Wall St the following is an editorial from
Bloomberg
GPE
Penya Was written by the
Bloomberg
PERSON
editorial board
1 year ago
DATE
Afghanistan
GPE
fell to the
Taliban
ORG
in park because the
US
GPE
had hoped for the best without preparing for the worst in dealing with the
Taliban
ORG
today President
Joe Biden
PERSON
can afford no such illusions the
US
GPE
needs to take a
Magmatic
LOC
approach to further engagement. It's top priority should be preventing
Afghanistan
GPE
from again becoming a base for terrorist attacks. It's also in
US
GPE
interest to avert a humanitarian disaster in
Afghanistan
GPE
and to bring
Afghans
NORP
who qualify for so called special immigrant visas
Us
GPE
as quickly as possible.
Agenda
PERSON
is admittedly limited but simply for stalling the worst would be no small achievement this auditorial was written by the
Bloomberg
PERSON
editorial board for more
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion please go to
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com slash opinion or OPI and go on the Road terminal.
The
Bloomberg
PERSON
editorial board for more
Bloomberg
PERSON
opinion please go to
Bloomberg
PERSON
. Com slash opinion or OPI and go on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
terminal Bloomberg Opinion. Oh no no no no. What's the question that drives us? Hey
Jovan Dawn
PERSON
. Radio. Everybody just about
10 and a half minutes
TIME
left in
today
DATE
's trading session and as you know we've been talking got another rally under my slight rally up
about 19
CARDINAL
on the S and P is
Charlie
PERSON
mentioned up
about half a percent
PERCENT
on the Dow The Nasdaq up by
about two thirds
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. So, let's get to it. As we drive to the clothes on
this Monday
DATE
,
Hicksmith
ORG
is back with us. He's chief investment officer. Have her for trust which as you know, is based in
Redner
GPE
,
Pennsylvania
GPE
.
Hank
GPE
, nice to have you here with
Katie Griffeld
PERSON
and myself, you have repeatedly come on with us this year Set a recession and a bear market are not likely is that still the case in your view? Well what if a
one
CARDINAL
aspect of we do have a technical recession to find by
two consecutive quarters
DATE
with negative real GDP growth The health of the consumer corporate Corporate balance sheets the banking system is well capitalized And there doesn't seem to be any problems there. So, on the one hand, a lot looks good about the economy The big part though is inflation. A lot looks good in the economy inflation being its own special animal what is the stock market look like though because if we think about
the past 2 months
DATE
since
June
DATE
's lows it's been a pretty robust rally the question it feels like everyone is asking is whether that
June
DATE
Was actually the bottom what's your view? Well what the stock market is anticipatory vehicle
Anticipated Inflation
ORG
which is really kind of Junish with
a very weak first half
DATE
and now I think it's anticipating that we are beyond peak inflation and that a lot of factors including
the Federal Reserve's
ORG
policy is starting to unwind inflation and and Engineer a somewhat soft landing and so I think that's what the the the market is really focusing on I don't think there's focusing on a said pivot because I think we're gonna see That fun rate increases through
2022
DATE
but maybe that's it. Maybe in
23
CARDINAL
were done that
Macro
ORG
issues with you I put out my
Twitter
PRODUCT
poll
this morning
TIME
and I said new week what's top of mind for everybody and so far the votes are coming in
32%
PERCENT
say a
China
GPE
US
GPE
slow down or the
China
GPE
US
GPE
slowdowns that were already seeing
almost 30%
PERCENT
say the retail earnings we're gonna get
this week
DATE
and also the retail sales date on
Wednesday 24 Say the FOMC minutes
DATE
which we also get on
Wednesday
DATE
from that last
fed
ORG
meeting and
about 13 and a half percent
CARDINAL
say other which they are weighing in on different things that are top of mind for them what's top of mind for you when you think about
this week ahead
DATE
? Well I think the retail earnings are are very important although clearly there's been a shift in spending from goods to services and experiences because if you look at what mass recard in visa have been saying that spending is is still pretty pretty robust but it's in different areas But I still think it's important what we see from
Walmart
ORG
,
Target
ORG
,
Home Depot
ORG
,
Lowe's
ORG
, because that's a good measure of of the strength of the consumer. So, that's top online
this week
DATE
And yes
Jill
PERSON
political Events you know I think the market has gotten a heat to say it this way almost used to the conflict in in
Ukraine
GPE
yeah
Events you know I think the market has gotten I hate to say it this way almost used to the conflict in in
Ukraine
GPE
yeah and and there's potential that you know they could get worse given the fall and
early winter
DATE
approaching in in in
Months
DATE
in terms of Terms of oil and and natural gas throughout
Europe
LOC
And so how do you sort of structure your portfolio with some of those geopolitical concerns in mine particularly when it comes to the energy sector for example if I look at the SMP 500 at the sector level that's by far the winner do you think that trade has sort of run its course at Except for some of our yield oriented strategies where we do have some energy exposure because of the very high yields and names like chevron But The Hey We're we're continuing to stay away of from the sector due to the sick locality of it and the lower quality I mean when you look at how many companies in the energy patch went out business in
19
CARDINAL
It's a tough sector to invest in in terms of where we're focusing on our biggest weight is in the health care industry Sector in in I think there's
three
CARDINAL
things going on. The reopening play. People are finally getting procedures that have been delayed because of the pandemic. Also with the defensive sector It's a attractively price sector You get good yield with growth of income and that's a nice combination in an inflation area
Barbara
PERSON
. Where don't you wanna be right now? Well you know I'm I did mention Energy which we are without in our growth strategy so we don't have any waiting there and we're absent utilities And read those of the
three
CARDINAL
areas where we have no exposure. Alright and so
Sorry Continue
PERSON
to favor equities over fixed income. Well, that's where I want to go. Actually, I'm glad you brought that up. Talk to me a little bit about that because if I look at the treasury market for example, we've seen a big, big rally. Yeah and and clearly yields are higher
today
DATE
even even with the rally and prices recently yields or hired
today
DATE
than than they were
a year ago
DATE
for for sure but if you if you have an outlook of of
five 710 years
DATE
your hard pressed to make a case Equities and particularly dividend pain and dividend growing equities So I think you'd have to see yields much higher The the right competition for for activities Leave it there. Hey, Hank. Good to check in with you again.
Hank Smith
PERSON
, chief investment officer and have a trust that company based in
Redner
GPE
,
Pennsylvania
GPE
. Hey, joining us on
this Monday
DATE
. We've got
just a few minutes
TIME
left in
today
DATE
's trading session and we are seeing equities just off their high so up about 14th of a percent of both the S and P and the Dow Jones Drill average.
Nasdaq
ORG
hired by
about six tenths
CARDINAL
of a percent.
Alright
ORG
, time to head over. To our TV colleagues for Beyond the Bell live on
Bloomberg Radio
ORG
, TV, and
YouTube
ORG
. We're counting you down to the clothes
Bloomberg
PERSON
's comprehensive cross platform coverage of the
US
GPE
market closed darns right now. We are
about 2 minutes
TIME
away from the end of the trading day
Caroline
GPE
High
Taylor Rick Shanally Bassett
PERSON
counting you down to the closing bell hit to take On that bell. With a global simulcast has always
carol master
PERSON
and
Katie Greyfelds
PERSON
in bringing together our TV radio and
YouTube
ORG
audiences worldwide. We dig into what drove trade and it feels as though we're worried about the economic picture but
Tech
ORG
manages to drive us higher yeah once again right we've seen this picture before I'm thinking about a
Tech
ORG
manages to driver's hire. Yeah, once again, right? We've seen this picture before. I'm thinking a lot about what the retail earnings
this week
DATE
are gonna tell us about the consumer and the health of the consumer.
Hank Smith
PERSON
over at have her That's certainly on his mind. He says, well,
Walmart
ORG
has to say, he knows that we've seen a shift in spending away from goods to services but he wants to see how healthy the consumer is,
Katie
PERSON
. Keeping an eye on energy because big tech obviously powering the benchmark index is higher except if you look at energy you'd it doesn't show up again at the index level but that sector really taking a beating again as oil prices After that just rough data from
China
GPE
And you see that in that sort of highlights a lot of the caution that we've received on the TV side of things snowy I know that lot of the guests we have at
the top of O'clock hour
TIME
in
the 3 o'clock hour
TIME
and our last guest as well from
UBS
ORG
really high lighting that they're not sure that the equity markets have room to go much higher from Maybe the sort of like the lack of demand that we continue to see. Yeah, the lack of demand and you have to remember that some of these energy companies are really what drove the S and P in the
first
ORDINAL
place. Just to see that relative weakness recently tailor, you know, it doesn't mean much. Not over. There's still so many catalysts ahead. I mean, just the thing that we're still on tend to hoax about a Walmart that was
only 3 weeks ago
DATE
. They basically preannounced and cut their earnings out like how much more rich can we get in terms of a picture from them as to how the consumer feel Here right now as we look towards all of that data
later in the week
TIME
we still digest the data on
the day
DATE
and manufacturing print a
Chinese
NORP
data that looked pretty woeful but the SMP 500 is the bells ring managers to push up
17
CARDINAL
points we are just in a breath From
4300
DATE
. We're at
4297
DATE
For you. Close but no cigar. Up
six
CARDINAL
tenths of a percent
PERCENT
up
80
CARDINAL
point stars average up
410 percent
PERCENT
that's a
51
CARDINAL
points and
Taylor
PERSON
and
Carol
PERSON
we look at a russel 2000 that
Ashley
ORG
man just pushed into Yeah exactly but it feels a little like I said it was like to say a little bit tortured if I look at the S and P 50285 names in the index higher
today
DATE
213
CARDINAL
lower
five
CARDINAL
unchanged so tailored shows you that investors not all in some down Up you know it's kind of almost an even split there. Yeah and you really see that on the sector level as well. It feels almost even but the little bit of a tilt here to the upside. Really looks in a way sort of a little bit defensive. Carol to your point. Household in products, food and beverage, food and staples, the retail utilities. Those are sort of the big gainers on From a sector level a
10
CARDINAL
to actually
two and a half percent
DATE
higher on
the day
DATE
there are still some lagers in KDI do this for you energy of course the clear loser transferation as well and some of the dividend
Continue
GPE
to talk about an inverted yield curve and what that means. So,
Kelly
PERSON
, you're right in terms of sort of maybe
50, 50
CARDINAL
, almost split here. Alright, so you did the sector groups. Let me get to The individual gainers in the
Monday
DATE
trade disney we've been all talking about it
all day
DATE
that stock finishing off its highs of the session but still with a gain of more than
two%
ORG
had to mention we know in a letter to Disney CEO
Bob Chapek
PERSON
activist investor download saying he required a steak in the company he's looking for Why would they wanna spin off
ESPN
ORG
at
four and a half
DATE
one
1 billion
CARDINAL
annually
DATE
in cash flow every year it is so important to
Disney
ORG
's top and bottom line wanted to mention
Illumina
GPE
as well top in the S and P 500 number one also top in the Deck 100 upper must nine% in
today
DATE
's session really reversing that decline we saw on
Friday
DATE
when it lost
about eight and a half percent
CARDINAL
mortgage
daily
DATE
adjusting its price target down to
240
CARDINAL
from
3:50
TIME
: maintaining equal weight not sure that there was a catalyst today with Companies CEO did talk to time which published an interview
yesterday
DATE
talking about how the company is well placed to witness the world's next great scientific transformation so maybe check that out
Tessa
PERSON
wanted to mention up more than
three%
GPE
today
DATE
's session also top in the S and P 500 Nasdaq 100 we did see some of the hedge funds either buying or selling shares of
Tesla
ORG
also the flagship
Japanese
NORP
financial media
Nike
ORG
reporting that
Panasonic
ORG
boosting its
EV
ORG
batter
Four
CARDINAL
tests by
10%
PERCENT
so maybe some enthusiasm there but definitely an outperformer
Katie
PERSON
in
today
DATE
's trade. Well, on the other side of the trade of course, we've been talking about it was all about energy. It crude oil falling by
about three and a half percent
CARDINAL
after that really ugly
Side of the trade of course we've been talking about it was all about energy it crude oil falling by
about three and a half percent
CARDINAL
after that really ugly data dump from
China
GPE
that sitting the lives of slumber jay of
Haliburton
GPE
again all those big oil names under pressure today and I
Warner Brothers Discovery
ORG
taking a dive down four% or so that's after a headline across the terminal that the company is going to fire
about 70
CARDINAL
workers who work at
HBO
ORG
and
HBO
ORG
max
PERSON
it's the latest round of cutbacks of course and
Ken
PERSON
this is the data there are the stories rather that aren't showing up in the data yet when you think about that blogbuster NFP print but feel like we've read some version of the story Plenty of times in
the past few weeks
DATE
. Yes, suddenly across
Tack
PERSON
across real estate but going back to your data that is facturing into the market. That
Chinese
NORP
data that affected that you pointed out that
Katie
PERSON
. Will it facted in dictated cross asset moves? I'm looking at global macro movers for radio audience. It is a sea of red on your global effects vertical because Came out from the
New York
GPE
number as well but meant that the
Canadian
NORP
dollar the
Kiwi
ORG
the
Swedish
NORP
crown and the Aussie dollar you name it we converse as a
US
GPE
dollar that really gets pushed higher and search of a safe haven and Perhaps the fact that really we're only gonna have walkishness coming from the
US
GPE
overall so we are still seeing of course that focus on the
FX
ORG
market that also fed into
Quantities
PERSON
based cos when you've got a stronger dollar it means you pull back a little bit in your commodities. Start of
August
DATE
that as the
Bloomberg
PERSON
dollar index has its best day since
the start of August
DATE
. So in this really very much a correlation within this WTI of by
three
CARDINAL
. Four% we're at $
89
MONEY
a barrel basically but big metals fell as well. I'm looking at steel up by more than a percentage point. I'm really a bit
European
NORP
yield sinking guilt for example over in the
UK
GPE
10
CARDINAL
basis points lower. And you really see that in the
US
GPE
as well. Pretty stable though across the curve between twos and going out to
20 about four
CARDINAL
bases Lower a parallel shift downward and you know it's except you go out to
30 years
DATE
and it's uncha on the day about a
311
CARDINAL
system steadiness out there but
Katie
PERSON
this continues to highlight the theme of what
41
CARDINAL
basis points of inversion on the
two
CARDINAL
's tens it's still positive sloping
3 month 10 year
DATE
But it is the lag that has people really talking the lag between wooden and version means for an impending recession
months
DATE
to follow. Yeah and actually we were talking about how this would be sort of the weirdest recession ever of course with
Hank Smith
PERSON
but it is interesting to see that actually it was the 2 year yield Games
today
DATE
that yield actually going lower. We haven't seen that in a while. Just goes again to show that that
Chinese
NORP
data sort of these worries about demand, what that will mean for other central banks, including the
fed
ORG
, maybe, you know, that pivot Becomes more of a possibility. Yeah, I think it's so interesting. That volatility in
the 2 year
DATE
because you were talking about it slipping the yield but then by the end of the We were back up to
320
CARDINAL
and so do investors view the
US
GPE
as a safe haven or not at what point do the
Chinese
NORP
economic data create better or bigger problems Here at home and and to what excent are we kind of going to grapple with all of these offshore profits that are The dollar. What's going on in the
US
GPE
? If there is a consumer slowdown in terms of purchasing more goods, we know
China
GPE
's such an export light economy. We're talking about this with our
Doug Krisner
PERSON
of Daybreak
Asia
LOC
. You know, and that just provides more problems, not only for the
US
GPE
economy but also the
Chinese
NORP
economy having said that, pushing forward, retail earnings, retail sales on
Wednesday
DATE
. This is gonna be really important. Retail They are really under perform versus the S and P 500. So, we mentioned
Target Walmart
ORG
, both of them have already kinda come out and said, some bad news. So,
Carolyn
PERSON
, I do wonder, does it then potentially if they show some more update news, could this be some potential for those stocks and those names to actually trend higher
this week
DATE
? And what about the more luxury What about the
Macy
ORG
's? What about the
yesterday
DATE
louder? What about the desire for those at the hiring come racket to pull back too when they're looking there
401
CARDINAL
Ks when Portfolios have done. Does that start to eat into that part? Because that have been very secure when we hear from
Macy
ORG
's in the last earnings. Very much seeing that the solid spending coming from the higher income brackets but we know that lower income.
Solid spending coming from the higher income brackets but we know that lower income brackets have already been so hard and this has been an equal society once Are we gonna get any positive music out of
Target
GPE
and
TJX
ORG
so we gonna get any signs of concern coming from the luxury side and
Carol
PRODUCT
just finally to bring a full
China
GPE
's ability to export deflation the over inventory that these companies have the deflationary forces that follow Smart enough to call peak inflation but from some of the data points it certainly looks like maybe we're heading in that I'd be afraid to copy inflation cuz man social media just like comes at you Yeah it's it's hard to say but I mean
Carol
PERSON
what we were talking about earlier is when it comes to peak inflation it feels like in this case this is where the
fed
ORG
actually does care about the absolute level. We talk about that rate of change all the time.
Eight and a half percent
TIME
inflation though. I would get a little bit worried. It'll remain worried about that level. It's hard for the
fed
ORG
to say we've got Covered folks and we're still running at what
eight and a half percent
DATE
. So, we have to think about it on a historical basis. That's a wrap guys. That's our crossplay from coverage or someone cast on radio, TV, and
YouTube
ORG
. Lots coming
this week
DATE
. We'll be back same time, same place
tomorrow
DATE
. You're listening to
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
with
Carol Masser
PERSON
and
Bloomberg
PERSON
Quick Takes
Tim Stenovic
PERSON
on
Bloomberg Radio Alright
ORG
, this is
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
.
Carl Master
PERSON
,
Katie Griffell
PERSON
,
Katie
PERSON
getting ready for her swan song. I cannot wait. I will say. You're relieved of this for a little bit. A little bit. Yeah, yeah, I'm working from home
tomorrow
DATE
. Really excited for it. I'll be listening on the radio though. To hear about how. Really? Oh, big time. Come on. You know, take my partner,
Tim
PERSON
instead of it. So Well, listen, you know, when you've been away for
a week
DATE
on a vacation, you'd, I know I really tune myself out on my week long vacation and all of a sudden, you're like, wait, what happened in this world? What? It feels like a lot has happened in
the past week and a half or so
DATE
There.
Tim
PERSON
just do the
Bloomberg
PERSON
quiz that I'll get you at the speed really quickly. Alright, let's get back to all the national news. Everybody, Nancy Lions, she's in
DC
GPE
. Hey,
Nancy
PERSON
. Thanks,
Carol
PERSON
. Senators are pushing for more details about the content of the document cease
last week
DATE
at Mar a
Lago
LOC
. Members of
the senate intelligence committee
ORG
made a bipartisan For those documents. Senators
Mark Warner
PERSON
, a democratic chairs the committee, and
Marco Rubio
PERSON
, it's
Republican
NORP
vice chairman, made the request in a private letter
yesterday
DATE
to
the justice department
ORG
in the office of the director of national intelli They asked the agencies to provide the panel with the documents and a quote assessment of potential risks to national security as a result of their mishandling. In
Washington
GPE
, I may be more as
Bloomberg
PERSON
radio,
Rudy Giuliani's
PERSON
lawyer say they've been told
Giuliani
PERSON
is Criminal investigation into possible illegal temp attempts by then President
Trump
PERSON
and others to interfere in the
2020
DATE
general election in
Georgia
GPE
also
today
DATE
a judge says
South Carolina
GPE
Consenator
Lindsay Graham
PERSON
must testify before a Georgia grand jury concerning that possible election interference he previously said he was immune to such testimony due to his position as a senator Well it was
1 year ago
DATE
today that the
Taliban
ORG
sees the capital city of
Kabel
WORK_OF_ART
the state department's
ORG
ned price says it means
America
GPE
is no longer spending money and losing soldiers ending
Longest war
EVENT
in
American
NORP
history was never going to be easy But
1 year later
DATE
, we are in a stronger position as a country because of the president's decision. Comments come on
the day
DATE
that a new
GOP
ORG
report was released condemning the bikeman administration for its handling of the withdrawal it says they were Few counselor officers helping
afghans
NORP
flee global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by more than 2700 jour An analyst in
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries.
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
and her
99 one
CARDINAL
newsroom in
Washington DC
GPE
.
Nancy
PERSON
, thank you. Hey,
Carol Master
PERSON
along with
Katie Greifield
PERSON
. On
this Monday, August 15
DATE
and this was I think the last time that the latest that hedge friends had to After
13
CARDINAL
Filings please for
the most recent quarter
DATE
right we are getting a flood of them right now we have a great top led blog on
the Bloomer Terminal
ORG
just going through it a little bit
Tina Filings
PERSON
. Please for
the most recent quarter
DATE
, right? We are getting a flood of them right now. We have a great top-led blog on the bloomer terminal. Just going through it a little bit. D
one
CARDINAL
capital started a new position in
Tesla
ORG
. But
about 178 1000
QUANTITY
chairs in Semi conductor maker ASML holding
N Ferrari
ORG
but it ditch
five
CARDINAL
companies entirely including
Burlington
ORG
stores and sweet green man no love for sweet green love some sweet It's so easy. You do it on your app. You just go and pick it up Know I love it. It really is the app. Actually, the convenience factor cuz I like other places, perhaps a little bit more but is it such a pain? I know, right? Yeah. And then you can skip the lines and stuff. I don't know. Pretty bullish on speaker. We're allowed to say, full, full transparency. Me time, source, fund management to increase its holdings a big text stocks ahead of their sharp rally
Weeks
DATE
while adding
more than 200 1 million
QUANTITY
shares of
American
NORP
campus As for those big tech names
George Source's
PERSON
investment firm bolstered its stakes in
Amazon
ORG
sales force in alphabet among other large tech companies all
three
CARDINAL
rank among its top
10
CARDINAL
holdings as of
the end of June
DATE
the firm also added a new
20
CARDINAL
Position in Tesla though that represents
only about 4 tons
QUANTITY
of sources
four
CARDINAL
.
6 billion US
MONEY
equities portfolio which fell
664 1 million
MONEY
in
the second quarter
DATE
and bouncing around a bit
Michael Burry
PERSON
of the big short fame we talk about him and his
Twitter
PRODUCT
all the time but his asset management firm dumped virtually all of its long Worth
162 1 million dollars
MONEY
at
the beginning of the quarter
DATE
his only holding was a new $
three
MONEY
. 3 million take in
geo group
ORG
an operator of private prisons in the
US
GPE
Wow. Okay, that's interesting. And then of course we had
third
ORDINAL
point. Founder download, revealing a letter to Disney that it took a significant steak in the company in
recent weeks
DATE
. So, something read about on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Bloomberg Call Bloomberg World
PERSON
.
Charlie
PERSON
pellet just getting word that paramount global has reached a deal with
Walmart
ORG
to offer its streaming service to subscribers of the retail giants membership program an update
today
DATE
for the Dow the S and P and
Nes Closing
PERSON
very close to session highs stocks advanced for
the second day in a row
DATE
megacaps catching bids as investors digested
week
DATE
data on
New York
GPE
manufacturing and the
Chinese
NORP
economy treasuries gained with the dollar we begin with
the 10 year
DATE
the you'll there
279%
PERCENT
.
The 2 year
DATE
yo
319%
PERCENT
. S and P up
17
CARDINAL
today that was a game of
four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
we had the dollar 151 up by
about five
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
as stack was up
80
CARDINAL
at a game there of
about six
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
spot gold up $
23
MONEY
a down $
23
MONEY
a ounce to
1779
DATE
red on the screen there down
one
CARDINAL
Three%
GPE
and we have
West Texas
LOC
intermediate crude down
three
CARDINAL
. Four% today WTI 8892 for a barrel of
West Texas
LOC
and immediate cruise so again recapping turned out being update kicking off the new trading west and p harby
17
CARDINAL
up
four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
I'm
Charlie
PERSON
that is a
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Come
Thursday
DATE
with initial jobless claims which have been trending higher signal and cooler conditions in the
US
GPE
labor market although Here folks. Still low by historical standards and would need to surpass
300 1000
CARDINAL
to raise a red flag. So
Katie
PERSON
, the tight labor market continues to really present struggles. We know this for many employers. Absolutely it struggles for employers struggles for the fat as well
Jerome Pals
PERSON
himself has said that basically the the rate of unemployment right now it's unsustainable alright so let's talk about how tight this labor force is and how it is tricky for some employers
Julie Apollo
PERSON
is back with us she's chief economist at
Kruter
GPE
and she is with us on the phone from
Los Angeles
GPE
Julia. Nice to have you back with us. Big picture
first
ORDINAL
of all when it comes to the labor market. We recently had that unbelievable,
Monthly
DATE
jobs report a blockbuster how are you seeing it from my macro big perspective? Hey very very strange moment in the late market where you do see these enormous games and they're very very broad broad games At the same time you see signs of an extremely tight label market as you're saying not just your record low job was claimed and and even though they're taking up slightly they're not feeding into continuing After they get laid off from their tech company and they're getting hired
And yet companies seem quite worried about the possibility the future downturn and they are hardening themselves against that If you look at their future hiring plan they do look a little bit more concerned and they hope that things will be able to turn back to normal and that they Be able to stop Crazy amount of hiring that they're doing. So Julia employers worried about a future downtown. What about job seekers right now? So John seek a confidence is still holding remarkably steady yo should look at all the different confidence surveys CEO conference has plummeted home buyer confidence is very low but John sees her confidence has been
Amazingly
PERSON
strong since the And that's because job seekers have offers in their back pockets they are holding out for better they are convinced that if they resign from the current job the current employers will ask them to stay and give them a raise and and counter an outside offer so they have an enormous amount of bargaining car Bridge. Headlines about layoffs and so they are concerned as well and and
the last 2 months
DATE
their future expectations have
kinda
GPE
taken a nose dive and they're starting to worry that
Josh
PERSON
may not be a splendor
Future
ORG
. That's interesting too cuz the okay yeah so you're talking about sentiment specifically we just certainly something we know the
Fed
ORG
watches keeps a watch on pretty closely in terms of what it might mean for future activity so what's Net net takeaway I'm thinking about can I Day out. We're talking about the big macro issues that are facing investors. You know, recession, no recession, labor market, still strong. How long does it continue? Consumers, you know, spending, how long will they continue? Job market so what's the takeaway the big picture take away that you that you would tell our audience right now And the implications of it. Yeah. Side most companies there this is still an incredibly tight way of market and hiring is so hugely challenging most companies are still seeing
about 23%
PERCENT
more employees quit
each month
DATE
and they didn't
2019
DATE
and most companies are still doing
about 12%
PERCENT
Hiring
each month
DATE
than they did in
2019
DATE
just to kinda tread water cuz there's so much turn and so so many quit. I think you've understandable that companies are kind of nostalgic for the good old days when everything was slower when they were less turnover and turned what it wasn't so difficult to hire. Right. When they could still insist on on on basic And and you know they could have a rule that we are one strike That's more like a
10
CARDINAL
strike rule when you're out rule now because companies cannot afford to lay people off because they know that they can't replace them. Well, people on the other side that write workers are finally kinda getting their day. After
years
DATE
and
years
DATE
of pressure and wages staying down and even on an inflationary you know basis wages are not necessarily keeping up with inflation in a lot of different industries but I I do wonder then is another net take away as we spend so much time talking about the macro issue of inflation which is certainly
Front
ORG
and center and probably the number
one
CARDINAL
thing on the feds mine not probably it is. So, still tight labor market versus what we're seeing in
2019
DATE
. Mean wage pressures are sticking around longer. Yes that is exactly I think to take away from this most recent jobs report that perhaps the risk of a recession has gone down a little bit but the risk of persistent inflation is Very much there. And that is the big question.
Yo
ORG
, how much cold water will the said have to throw on this economy? It looks so free. For now, delay market is pretty resilient and it's able to withstand neutral interest rates. But could it withstand much higher interest rates? That's a big question. I think that's why you see some sort of Harshest optimism on spend some parts of the market and even some sensitive gloom and doom and others.
Hey I didn't even some sort of gloom and doom and others like in those Factory numbers that came up
today
DATE
. Alright, gonna leave it on that note. Thank you.
Julia Paula
PERSON
, Chief Economist, zip recruiter, joining us on the phone from
Los Angeles
GPE
. Any thoughts there? I just that last point you made that it feels like workers are finally having
their day
DATE
. I just hope that remains. Obviously, that's a huge product of the labor shortage but hope that momentum sticks around. Lower and I wanna say pre pandemic and then you know they were certainly pressures there. Alright, you are listening to
Bloomberg
GPE
business week more to come in just a moment. I'm
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Broadcasting live from the
Bloomberg
NORP
interactive broker studio in
New York
GPE
Bloomberg
11 three oh
DATE
to
Washington DC
GPE
Bloomberg
PERSON
99 one
CARDINAL
to
Boston
GPE
Bloomberg
1061
DATE
to
San Francisco
GPE
Bloomberg
960
CARDINAL
to the country series
Alright, Katie
WORK_OF_ART
just said to me, man, I cannot wait to talk to
Max Chapkin
PERSON
about his piece of
Bloodberg
PERSON
business week. My husband has been following the
Alex Jones
PERSON
trial. We're happily. I have not and this is a great reason for me to get up to speed. I was at the beach on vacation when the outcome of that trial came out and we were all talking about a big time. We don't talk to
Max
PERSON
though who's got a story. There are marks in the upcoming new issue of business week Meantime a lot happening on this
Monday
DATE
Charlie Pellet
PERSON
all over it. I thank you very much and here's what's going on. Let us begin with ginko bioworks holding stock up by
about 15%
PERCENT
after ours after reporting total revenue for
the second quarter
DATE
that beat the average analyst estimate.
Paramount
ORG
global has reached a deal with
Walmart
ORG
to offer it Streaming service to subscribers of the retail giants membership program
Walmart
ORG
by the way will be reporting earnings
tomorrow
DATE
morning
TIME
stocks up for
a second day in a row
DATE
megacaps catching bids as investors digested
week
DATE
data on
New York
GPE
manufacturing and the
Chinese
NORP
economy raising the question are we in a recession hank
Smith Cheap
ORG
investment officer at
Harborford Trust
ORG
and he was our guest right here on
Bloomberg Business Week
ORG
. It's the most The banking system as well capitalized And there doesn't seem to be any problems there
Today
DATE
we saw the S and P
500
CARDINAL
index close close to session highs up by
about 17
CARDINAL
points up
four
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
the dial up
151
CARDINAL
higher by
about five tens
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
now stack up
80
CARDINAL
points
today
DATE
for the net stack composite index that was a game of
six
CARDINAL
dense
one%
ORG
now stack
100
CARDINAL
index up by
almost eight
CARDINAL
tenths of
one% Russell 2000
ORG
up by
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
can you yell
279%
PERCENT
. Of
the 2 years
DATE
Index up by
almost eight
CARDINAL
tenths of
one% Russell 2000
ORG
up by
two
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
can you yield
279%
PERCENT
. Of
the 2 year old
DATE
319%
PERCENT
. Gold spot gold down
one
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
1779
DATE
the ounce and
west texas
PRODUCT
Your crew
today
DATE
moving lower by
three
CARDINAL
. Six%
8878
DATE
apparel for
West Texas
LOC
and immediate crude so again recapping an update on Wall St
two in a row
DATE
for the S and P
500
CARDINAL
index up
today
DATE
by
17
CARDINAL
points up for tenths of
one
CARDINAL
Bloomberg
NORP
business flash. Although this next story already on the
Bloomberg
PERSON
and@Bloomberg. Com slash business week it will be the new issues opening remarks it is a story about
Alex Jones
PERSON
the far right radio host and professional conspiracy theorist choose actress spreading lies got him thrown off many social media platform You know that and yet it didn't stop him
Katie
PERSON
from building up quite a following and really banking a lot in the process
Been
PERSON
depressing i would say that sort of cancel culture I know that it has a lot of connotations but in this case it felt like this was maybe a good sort of cancellation but end up working out for
Jones
PERSON
alright so let's get to the story by our own
max chafkin Max's
PERSON
calmness for
Bloomberg
PERSON
business week he's on the phone in
Queens
GPE
alright
Max
PERSON
take it away About first of all i'm assuming everybody knows who
Alex Jones
PERSON
is but I should never assume so just give us the quick
one two
CARDINAL
on who this individual is. So yeah
Alex Jones
PERSON
is as he said a basically right wing conspiracy minded talk radio post he's been on the radio since
the mid 90s
DATE
and his kinda stock and trade is crafting his really convoluted conspiracy theories In ways and often around mass violence and tragedies and
Jones
PERSON
got really popular in the during the mid 20 tens first because of social media and then because he kind of embraced Trump and got caught up in in a lot of the the sort of like viral appeal of of He has been subjective a lot to lots of losses over
the years
DATE
and and wonder that that people have been talking about that I focused on has to do with his comments about Sandy Hook the the the
2012
DATE
massacre in which
26
CARDINAL
and
7 year olds
DATE
and
six
CARDINAL
teachers were killed Has been for
years
DATE
basically pushing a conspiracy theory that you know alleges that the families and the children were faking this and as a result they started to these defamation trials and then finally a lawsuit that that ended with
Jones
PERSON
being ordered to pay something like
One 1 million dollars
MONEY
damages to to the parents of
one
CARDINAL
of
these 6 year olds
DATE
and what was so interesting about this case I mean it it had all these kind of made for TV moments as you as you might expect but one thing I was very interesting is that we learned a lot about the econ
Said Alex Jones
PERSON
is needy empire and the numbers are just frankly kind of astounding he was making huge sums of money but before and after he was kicked off social We'll walk us through some of the numbers what are we talking about So we learned A document and testimony and then from the testimony expert witnesses that
Jones
PERSON
was making
around 50 1 million dollars
MONEY
a year selling merchandise so so info wars what's the Company. It's it's a it's an unconventional media business. It doesn't sell a lot of advertising as you might expect given kind of the the topic. It's not advertiser friendly. What
Alex Jones
PERSON
does is he attracts attention and then he uses that attention to to sell products
Vitamins
PRODUCT
survival gear and and merchandise you know During the
2016
DATE
election campaign is a lot of pro Trump merchandise but but a lot of it's sort of political and what happened is in
2018
DATE
I thrown off social media and if you wanted to trial the revenue numbers actually went up he was making
around 50 1 million dollars
MONEY
a year and then we saw it testimony during the the trial that I said he was making you know around 7:65:
one 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
2012
DATE
you know years again after he was thrown off social media and that really cuts against a lot of the
65 1 million dollars
MONEY
in
2012
DATE
you know years again after he was thrown off social media and that really cuts against a lot of the kind of conventional wisdom about you know quote unquote deep platforming
Jones
PERSON
had been you know kind of pushing his That as result of Facebook,
Twitter
PRODUCT
,
YouTube
ORG
, and so on. Taking all social media that he'd lost due to money, and in fact, he didn't and I think the the fact that he didn't is kind of causes I think a little bit of a rethinking in terms of the wisdom of of the platforming and and exactly how it works because he was able to use it very much his advantage Alright so what's the kind of the take away here
Max
PERSON
in terms of you know the power of kind of the conventional there I say conventional social media platforms the massive ones that are out there you know and then comparing it what what
Jones
PERSON
has done on his own and just got
about 30 Seconds
TIME
40 seconds hey Is he wasn't really the platform.
One
CARDINAL
is that the social platforms waited too long and the
second
ORDINAL
one is that he wasn't really the platform because he's still able to kick up tons of noise on social media through folks like
Joe Rogan
PERSON
even without So so again make you sense of money It's a great story. And I highly recommend everybody check it out. They can read it and it's entirely
Max
PERSON
. Thank you so much.
Bloomberg Business We Calmness
ORG
,
Max Jack
PERSON
, enjoying us on the phone in
Queens
GPE
,
New York
GPE
, and as we mentioned, this will be the upcoming issue of
Bloom Business week
ORG
out
later this weekend
DATE
it's entirety and this story will be the opening remarks so you can check it out but right now you can check it out on
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
also at Dot com slash business week. Right now, it's off to
DC
GPE
,
World of National News
ORG
with
Nancy Lyons
PERSON
. Hey,
Nancy
PERSON
. Thanks,
Carol
PERSON
. It is unclear if
the justice department
ORG
will reveal any more about its investigation into classified documents that were found A search of former President
Trump
PERSON
's Mar a Lago estate
Bloomberg
PERSON
Washington
GPE
correspondent
Anne Marie Hordurn
PERSON
says lawmakers want those details Or
Warner
ORG
who's the chair of
the senate intelligence committee
ORG
along with Vice
Chair
PERSON
,
Marco Rubio
PERSON
, obviously a
Republican
NORP
and a
Democrat
NORP
asking the
DOJ
ORG
and the office of
the National Intelligence Director
ORG
for the contents of what was in these documents,
11
CARDINAL
sets of classified material.
Bloomberg
PERSON
,
Trump
ORG
has said any documents taken from his resort were all declassified but for classified documents that involves a process that includes approval from other agencies Senator
Lindsay Graham
PERSON
says he plans to appeal
today
DATE
's rolling requiring him to testify before a grand jury in
Georgia
GPE
the
Fulton County
GPE
District Attorney is investigating alleged Fearance in the
2020
DATE
presidential election attorneys for
Rudy Giuliani
PERSON
say they've been told
Giuliani
PERSON
is a target in that investigation
House
ORG
Republicans
NORP
are out with the scathing report on the
US
GPE
withdrawal from
Afghanistan
GPE
it was
1 year ago
DATE
today
US
GPE
troops left the country congressman
Mike McCall
PERSON
is the top
republican
NORP
on
the house foreign affairs committee
ORG
We promise them that we would get them out and you know saying no one left behind and we violated that promise Call says the
US
GPE
did not have enough personnel at
the Cobble Airport
FAC
the
Biden
PERSON
administration says the quote partisan report cherry pics information and provides inaccurate characterizations Global news
24 hours
TIME
a day on air and on
Bloomberg
PERSON
quick take powered by
more than 2700
CARDINAL
journalist and analyst and
more than 120
CARDINAL
countries Hi Nancy Lyons Alright Nancy Lyons thank you so much
Carol
PRODUCT
Master along with
Katie Greifield
PERSON
in
Arborenberg
PERSON
interactive broker studio a headline crossing
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
as you know we did on
Friday
DATE
get the release of the search warrant of former President
Donald Trump
PERSON
's
Florida
GPE
home and
Marla Lago
PERSON
that was the actual search warrant will there's been pressure or at least requests for the just
Department
ORG
to release the affidavit the
FBI
ORG
affidavit that showed the justification for the seizure of documents at
Donald Trump's
PERSON
Marlogo
GPE
home all right now headline crossing that
the justice department
ORG
of
the United States
GPE
opposing the release of that affidavit that led To that
Trump
ORG
search of Mar a Lago or the
FBI
ORG
search I should say of
Trump
ORG
's
Florida
GPE
home more a logo alright you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week Kid Grild she's a busy lady around here in earlier today she co-hosted
Of
Trump
ORG
's
Florida
GPE
home more logout alright you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week Kid Greyfeld she's a busy lady around here and earlier today she co hosted the
ETF
ORG
program on
Bloomberg Television
ORG
yeah every Monday
1 PM
TIME
sometimes on
Wednesdays
DATE
but mostly on
Mondays
DATE
This was a really interesting one because the theme that we've been tracking over
the past couple weeks
DATE
is sort of the rise of We got a pretty interesting guest on
today
DATE
. His name is
five
CARDINAL
Ace Ramaswami
PERSON
. He is co-founder of
Strive Asset Management
ORG
and
last week
DATE
they launched the Strive
US
GPE
energy ETF. The gold being basically to accumulate accumulate enough aci That they'll have a say You know, what these different companies are doing. Right. In terms of shareholder votes, and he wants to encourage oil companies to basically drill more. He does. He does. He wants them to drill more. Yeah. Totally anti ASG. I called him auntie ESG in my intro he argued we're not anti anything we're pro So we're pro excellence, pro making money, and these oil companies, they're not drilling enough oil. We know that there's demand out there and we're not meeting it. Isn't it funny that he's calling anti ESG at a time when ESG is coming under a lot of scrutiny for saying, wait, wait, wait, are you really ESG Hey Facebook Been so many high profile sort of where can we find the show You can find it bloomer television
1 PM eastern every monday
TIME
.
Markets, headlines, and breaking news
24 hours
TIME
a day@Bloomberg. Com. From
Bloomberg World Hank Quaters
ORG
I'm
Charlie Pellett Zip Recruiter
PERSON
shares now down by five% after our zip recruiter has cut its revenue guidance for
the full year
DATE
the guidance did miss the average analyst estimate it Report
second
ORDINAL
quarter
DATE
revenue of $
239
MONEY
.
9 million
CARDINAL
estimates
234
CARDINAL
.
7 million
CARDINAL
gingo bioworks holding shares up by
about 15%
PERCENT
in post market trading after reporting total revenue for
the second quarter
DATE
that did beat the average hours estimate Up by
about five
CARDINAL
tens of
one%
ORG
as stack up
80
CARDINAL
that was a game of
Tens
CARDINAL
of
one%
ORG
. Catching bids
today
DATE
is investors digested
week
DATE
data on
New York
GPE
manufacturing and the
Chinese
NORP
economy tenure of
11 30 seconds
TIME
10 year
DATE
yield
278%
PERCENT
. Spot gold tumbled $
23
MONEY
the ounce to
1779
DATE
a decline of
one
CARDINAL
.
Three%
GPE
west
Texas
GPE
intermediate crude now
Bloomberg
GPE
business flash. Alright, got to
Charlie
PERSON
, thank you so much. We wanted to wrap up on this Monday Story that was among our most read on
the Bloomberg Terminal
ORG
today
DATE
. Might not be on your radar. It definitely caught our attention because it's all about the warehousing. We are seeing around the country as we all order so much online. We're talking about logistics and we're talking specifically about what's going on in the
LA
GPE
area because the expansion Looks like it's coming to a halt. At least temporarily of course this is sort of the logistics mecca east of
Los Angeles
GPE
joining us to discuss. So what exactly is going on is Augusta Surviva. She is a supply chain reporter from
Bloomberg News
ORG
. Joins us on the phone from
New York City
GPE
and
Augusta
ORG
you write that sort of these new warehouse and projects are being paused to examine the impact from
decades
DATE
of pollution but why now? Hi, thank you so much for having me. I think the reason why racing that now is because we experience that e-commerce boom during the pandemic. So, not only the number of warehouses and the inland empire, which when you think about it, it's so large. It's larger than
New Jersey
GPE
Larger than
Massachusetts
GPE
. And when you think about it, not only we can over
the past few decades
DATE
, but we really saw a boom during the pandemic. Because when everyone started to buy things, in order to find places to put those items arriving from
China
GPE
, right? So, for Daniel was just natural to look,
Alexander
ORG
's And to look at the empire which is right by the largest forest in the country. So now they're sort of hunting for space. I have to say the pictures if you're not familiar and I actually wasn't very familiar specifically with all of the warehouses in
Redlands
PERSON
.
Sort of hunting for space I have to say the pictures if you're not familiar and I actually wasn't very familiar specifically with all of the warehouses in
Redlands California
LOC
. You talk about the inland empire more than a
one 1 billion square feet
QUANTITY
of distribution centers. You know all the goods that are coming in on
the West Coast
LOC
before they move out on truck and rail across
the United States
GPE
but it is massive massive is this all about environmental monitoring like what's the reason for the halt? You have to do with the environment for sure when you look at the numbers for example the island empire has the worst levels of own zone and all of the country but also we have some other underlying issues when you think about about the communities there are being the most impacted it's mostly people caller it's people from lower in
Background
GPE
. So really what the cities are trying to do is take a snap back and think about what's going on. Who's seeing the most impacted? So I thought we have the Ozen levels when it looks at the level that
Hardy
ORG
deserves asthma. It's really bad in the region. So really there's putting the brakes on to a set. The Have impact right now. And so what's the read through sort of
two
CARDINAL
the broader economy from these halts as we know supply chains I've heard a lot about them in
the past 2 years
DATE
still extremely stressed and you're right I mean needs are soaring right now Right yes we continue to be a top of mind issue and when you think about it there are
40 1 million square feet
QUANTITY
under construction
40 1 million square feet
QUANTITY
of warehouses under construction in the umpire and there there's so going and so when you think of when you think about the people who are against these more The unions representing construction workers. It's mostly politicians saying, no, because it's gonna generate jobs, right? So, it's truly a battle between the
two
CARDINAL
sides. The people were saying, no, we need to take a step back and think about the environmental issues. Think about the economic impact for it these lower income families, threeD Hey look at how many jobs extra
40 1 million square feet
QUANTITY
are we gonna bring to our region right well it's interesting to
Katie Wright
PERSON
we were talking earlier about ESG and like you wonder if the market was still going up you know money would be flowing still into it and Wonder In terms of what we're seeing for warehousing if the you know They benefit because of the jobs and I do wonder if maybe I don't know if things weren't their concerns. I don't know. I guess I'm trying to understand if things are starting to slow down. I don't know where I'm going with this. It's a
Monday
DATE
. The discussion, why are we having it now? Is it just because environmentally things are just hitting certain, you know, tipping points or or what's going on because as you say, it does provide jobs for the community and I do wonder right now the job market Wrong but you know I do wonder if things start to get a little bit more difficult in terms of labor market would be would we have this conversation because you know people need jobs and and it helps the economy sorry that was a really convoluted way That they've been having for a long time when you think about it I feel like right now the main conversation is videos are happening so for example the city of
Simona
GPE
and the
Empire
GPE
this week
DATE
it's gonna vote on water to extend the moratorium so this is something that some cities have been doing While it's just that a lot of them haven't found the right answer yet so they're trying to decide whether they should continue the pause or they should go back to the economic activity and all of that but when you look at the future as they said it's not only the
40 1 million square feet
QUANTITY
it's also come up the largest retailers in the country
Amazon
ORG
is In
a few years
DATE
. So the construction is still going. The retailers are still coming in. Here's a question for you with so many people talking about and I'll try not be so convoluted I need some coffee I think. But I do think about more onshoring, more nearshoring, but onshoring in particular, I mean, that to me, especially when you think about the Amazons of this world and we all continue to order online that we're more likely to have more distribution, you know, centers and the logistics.
Online that we're more likely to have more distribution you know centers and logistic centers closer to where we live that it's hard to kinda slow this trend it's also been a really important investment trend for a lot of individuals as well and institutions Oh no for sure and one of my sources who happen to had one of the largest warehouse in companies in the country he was telling me exactly that he was saying okay but how do we look at the seashell is logistic The new manufacturing for this country is does what's gonna generate the most jobs and at the end of the day when you look at it what he told me is that the distribution center they're gonna be where people are right when you look at where are the most distribution centers in the country it's in
the Inland Empire
FAC
right next to It's a
New Jersey
GPE
right next to
New York
GPE
right so at
the end of the day
DATE
there's just so much you can do you can move some of those distribution centers to
WhatsApp Utah Nevada
ORG
great So there's no easy answer. It is and it's really complicated. Good to check in with you about this. A good to survive. She's our supply chain reporter. It's a job. It's very indicative of our times. Here at
Bloomberg News
ORG
joining us on the phone in
New York City
GPE
. Alright. Supply chain reporter. Which
one
CARDINAL
sticks around? We'll find out. Both? For all the people who just hired. Okay. You so much. Always love when you pitch it. Thank you. Thank you so much. Alright,
Tim
PERSON
said it back though. He will be back
tomorrow
DATE
looking forward to it. Have
a good evening
TIME
.
Hey From the heart of where innovation money and power collide. I'm
Emily Jenkins
PERSON
San Francisco
GPE
and this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
technology coming up Fitness company is planning a redesign so that customers can assemble their own bikes at home. We'll customer spin for it. We'll discuss. Details on his new steak and why he's urging a spin off of
ESPN
ORG
. And how google maps routinely misleads people searching for abortion clinics why and why it's ever more critical in a post grow world more on our
Bloomberg
PERSON
analysis
later this hour
TIME
. We'll get to all of that in a moment but first I wanna get a look at the market stocks rising for
a second trading day in a row
TIME
the tech
Tesla
ORG
,
Apple
ORG
,
Microsoft
ORG
, and in video Games Bloomers
Christina Quino Us
PERSON
now for more
Christine
PERSON
walk us through
the day
DATE
. Well, Emily, you know, we started
the week
DATE
with bad news out of
China
GPE
coming in the form of an
July
DATE
but you really would not know that just looking at a price action in the
US
GPE
equity market today
Green
PERSON
across the board with the S and P
500
CARDINAL
closing up
four
CARDINAL
tenths higher on
the day
DATE
and that comes off of the string of
a 4 weeks
DATE
of games already and that's propelling that Up
18%
PERCENT
from
those year
DATE
to date lows that we saw in
June
DATE
and of course the Nasdaq 100 also following in the S and P 500 And of course the story of the day or one of the big corporate stories of the Of course, Disney. I know Emily, you're gonna be digging into that a little bit later but it's making headlines
today
DATE
. As you mentioned, because of
Dan Lobe
PERSON
and his company
third
ORDINAL
Point taking a In the company he was very much not shy about suggesting some of those changes that he'd like to see to disney CEO
Bob Chapik
PERSON
and some of them include potential spin Of the
ESPN
ORG
division. I know that you're gonna be digging into that story for us later, Emily, and of course, the semi-conduct Finishing
the day
DATE
three
CARDINAL
tenths of
one%
ORG
higher now if you Consumer senti Six 10th of
one%
ORG
but then some of it's more JD. Com a bow trading higher on
the day
DATE
of course to clear out perform Here of more than four% but again, if you zoom out to the performance of
China
GPE
tech versus
US
GPE
tech, over
the past year
DATE
, you can really see that the virgins is very, very clear. We see that the golden dragon
China
GPE
index is in
Golden
GPE
Dragon China in that really still extending those gains it's down
30%
PERCENT
over
the past year
DATE
maybe that has that Middle of June and has now paired those declines to
just 10%
PERCENT
over
the past year
DATE
. So, we're gonna be, I know we're gonna be digging To some of those stories there Emily is very much a feeling of
summer
DATE
markets here.
Over
the past year
DATE
. So, we're gonna be, I know we're gonna be digging into some of those stories there, Emily. It is very much a Of summer markets here but still lots to talk about
Alright
ORG
,
Christine
ORG
, thank you very much and to that Disney story, activist investor
Dan Lobe
PERSON
, urgent Disney to make a sweeping set of changes to booth, shareholder value, including newborn members, and Spinning off ESP that
Pierre
PERSON
loves
third
ORDINAL
point taking what it calls a significant stake in Disney here to Paul Verna of Insider Intelligence in
Bloomberg
GPE
.
Leona Baker
PERSON
,
Leona
PERSON
, some of the changes that
Dan Lobe
PERSON
is calling for here, not necessarily new ideas. I mean, we've heard talk about spending
ESPN
ORG
for
years
DATE
. What is
Dan Lobe
PERSON
suggesting and why? Well, that's right, Emily. In the letter, if you read it, low actually says, Disney might be working on some of these things already, although sources close to Disney, tell me, you know, there's not gonna be an
ESPN
ORG
. Spin off anytime soon, but Hulu from Comcast. These are things that investors have kind of been For
years
DATE
and this is
Lope's
WORK_OF_ART
second
ORDINAL
bite of the apple at Disney in
2020
DATE
remember he had also taken a steak and ask for changes like Disney scrapping Those are things that Disney never really did so we'll see if he has a better shot this time around.
Lobe
ORG
is a big name in the world of activists invest He's shaken up companies like
Yahoo
ORG
and
Sony
ORG
over
the years
DATE
but he does have a mixed track record as to really seeing the changes that he's asking for. Lobes letter to Disney initially starts off
Gener Significant
PERSON
free cash flow despite these advantages we believe a strong case can be made that
ESPN
ORG
should be spun off to shareholders with an
Alleviate
ORG
leverage at the parent company. Disney responding, sort of thanks, not quite. Not quite no thanks saying we welcome the views of all our investors as our results demonstrate the Walt Disney company continues to deliver strong Financial results powered by world class storytelling and our unique and highly valuable content creation And distribution ecosystem
Paul
PERSON
what do you make of this? Well I think it's always got to throw the pot you know dialogue is always helpful and and it's interesting to to put out these ideas but I don't think if if I were about take pic keeping
ESPN
ORG
I'm I'm not spinning it off
ESPN
ORG
does a lot of things for
Disney Sports
ORG
for one it does a couple of things that no other form of entertainment does one is You have loyalty so you know someone is more likely to tune out the next season of the
Mandalorian
NORP
if they don't like a plot twist or something about the casting but they're not likely to just stop watching
Major League Baseball or La Liga
ORG
or whatever else they watch on
ESPN
ORG
and then there's this whole thing about Viewing which is something that's kind of a vestage to Days but it still exists in sports because a game is taking place when it takes place and people wanna watch it so I think there's a lot of benefit to having
ESPN
ORG
as part of that portfolio. It's not an accident that every other media company that Disney competes with has a major sports entity as part of their mix.
Aliana
PERSON
you know what do we know about lobes track record and how likely it is that he'll he'll be successful here With a company like Disney It's hard to say there wasn't vaguely threatening line in the letter today where he said that there's a talent gap on
Disney
ORG
's board and that he has good connections and could maybe
Introductions to Disney
ORG
. Now, I don't know, you know, who Disney needs to meet that doesn't know already but the idea there is that he's floating out with investors to see if they'll Window for directors would open
later this fall
DATE
so
Lope
ORG
would have
a few months
DATE
to see if he wants to do a
Fight
ORG
. He really does have a mix track record. Taking over boards. At Yahoo back in
2012
DATE
, he had a lot of success, although history will tell weather, you know,
Marissa Mayer
PERSON
was the right move. At
Southern
NORP
Taking over boards at Yahoo back in
2012
DATE
we had a lot of success although history will tell weather you know
Marissa Meyer
PERSON
was the right move outside the bees the company went private but it was a really long haul it took
several years
DATE
and
Sony
ORG
still hasn't made a lot of the changes he's wanted so while he's a big name it's not clear You know even though he's going after the pump and that's a slam dunk that all of this will come true. Gosh I remember covering that yahoo lobe
Marissa Myers
PERSON
Every day for a gosh
at least a year
DATE
.
Paul
PERSON
, what do you make of some of these other changes new board members? You know, full ownership of who again, as I said earlier, not necessarily knew ideas but you know, something, something that several investors have been calling for, for a while, but hasn't happened Well I think that Disney buying the share that it doesn't own in Hulu from Comcast is a good idea so I agree with
Dan Lobe
PERSON
on that one There's a lot of tension within Disney because on the one hand, you know, there's a deadline to execute this deal by
2024
DATE
. So, obviously It's in Disney's best interest for the price of that chunk to be as low as possible. So, it's almost like a weird motivation to drive down the value of Hulu and that's just a very tense situation that's Forward for
the next couple of years
DATE
. Disney already has a controlling interest in Hulu and in my view they're doing a great job with Hulu. I don't see that they should fold it into Disney Plus necessarily. I think it's a very strong brand on its own. So I I A lot of value in Disney executing on this earlier even if as
Dan Lopez
PERSON
they have to pay a little bit of a premium for it. Alright. Well, we're gonna continue to follow this evolving story. We'll see how long it lasts. Boomersley on a baker,
Paul Verna
PERSON
of Insider, intelligence. Thank you And more changes for
Peloton
ORG
after
last week's
DATE
layoffs and price hikes. Think DIY the struggling fitness Retooling its bikes for self assembly. Yes, that means customers will be able to put them together Themselves. This is part of a wide ranging turn around for peloton by its new CEO
Barry McCarthy
PERSON
who's also planning to launch a rowing machine
this year
DATE
.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Mark German
PERSON
covers all things peloton for us. So, let's get this straight. Palatine just raised prices for the bike. Now, it wants customers to put the bikes together themselves. Yeah I wonder if
Dan Lobe
PERSON
is gonna try to get his hands on
Peloton
PERSON
as well these clearly they have a lot of changes to implement here so yes one of the initiatives
last week
DATE
is part of the layoffs was really Chasing their cost and dropping them significantly when it comes to distribution and warehouses, right? So, we're laying off over 500 people that work in distribution. Now, if you ever bought a Pelo Before. This is how it works and you know this already. You order it online and they show up to your house, white glove service, they bring it in, they unbox it for you, and they set it up for you That's a $
400
MONEY
fee to consumers and it's very expensive for the company to really supply and make happen that's why they're whining on the wear her houses right now Start moving the
third
ORDINAL
party companies logistics companies to do that white glove service the next step is having consumer set these devices up themselves so they're in the process right now the CEO told me an interview
last week
DATE
of redesigning it's equipment so they can ship it via UPS via
FedEx
GPE
It arrives at your doorstep. You open the box, you put it together yourself, and like you said,
DIY
ORG
, that's obviously not a great customer experience compared to
the white glove service
ORG
but that would be cheaper for the customer, no longer paying that $
400
MONEY
setup fee. Be cheaper for
Peloton
PERSON
and if they have redesigned it in such a way where it's a
15 minute
TIME
Right with just a few parts it's actually pretty convenient rather than having people come into your house We've covered some of the safety issues with
Pelaton
ORG
products. I mean, are there any safety issues with Yeah, I mean, I have to tell you, obviously, if you set up a bike incorrectly or the rower or a treadmill incorrectly, right? And that thing falls apart cuz you didn't do a good job. You know, setting up the device. That's a clear li Issue. So that really comes down to their engineering, their supply chain, their operations, to figure out a way to make these devices work reliably and set up reliably, right? So if you have to have the equipment to The right screwdriver, the right screws, that could be a complicated situation. So, that is definitely a consideration and I guess we just have to hope that
Peloton
PERSON
has Near these things so they could be set up quickly and safely.
It could be a complicated situation so that is definitely a consideration and I guess we just have to hope that So they could be set up quickly and safely. You've also reported on products to come a rowing machine what else can we expect Yes so a rowing machine that's the next major product from
Peloton
ORG
other than this minor redesign of the bike so allow for safe assembly
Peloton
ORG
rolling machine has been in the works for
several years
DATE
now
Barry McCarthy
PERSON
says they're finally probably gonna launch in
the holiday season
DATE
he hinted at some supply chain snags related to COVID so let's see if they're able to get that
Lunch
PERSON
. They launched the guide. That's a TV device that allows the the TV device with the camera to follow along and really analyze your workouts and tell you how you're doing. After that, they're Been working on a machine similar to a tonal and another strength training machine. There's also wearables in the works. They have this Monitor so maybe they'll expand the wearables business as well but what I really think is they need to really you know probably make a cheaper bike right the cheapest bike right now is
around $1500
MONEY
I think the sweet spot for something like this Probably south of a $
1000
MONEY
. They've been pushing their refurbished model. Maybe they can make a really low end self-assembleable bike. Maybe with a smaller display, less integrated technology that could really With bikes from
Eschelon
GPE
and other companies that are simply not charging as much as pelo Alright interesting what we'll continue to follow your reporting on
Peloton Bloomberg's
PERSON
Mark German
PERSON
as always It.
Monday
DATE
is the deadline for hedge funds to disclose their
US
GPE
equity investments for
the Quarter
DATE
. This is
one
CARDINAL
of the few ways that we get insided to how hedge funds and some large family offices actually invest. They had fun ducain but
Eli Lily
ORG
, crowdstrike,
Maderna
GPE
, and
Data
PERSON
dog. Meantime,
Tiger Global
PERSON
took new positions in
alph
PERSON
And
Zilla
PERSON
according to a new
13
CARDINAL
at filing tiger global Exited positions in docusign zoom and sales force reducing its stakes and snowflake and
Microsoft
ORG
. Coming up
dozens
CARDINAL
of specs have fallen through
this year
DATE
and there could be more to come. I'll tell you why. Next This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
This back world continues to unravel
at least four
CARDINAL
planned mergers to go public have been cancelled since the market closed
last Friday
DATE
bringing
the years
DATE
tally to
42
CARDINAL
those concerns have pushed
89
CARDINAL
backers to withdraw Plans to raise fresh capital for blank checks here to explain
Bloomberg
PERSON
's Bailee Lip Shelts so Bailey just how many of these are we talking about here and why are we seeing so many of them Yeah so as you saw the in the chart that we've seen kind of a growing number that is only kind of shot up since
the start of the year
DATE
and that's really coming as we've seen over
600
CARDINAL
blank check companies on the hunt for deals that are racing against deadlines that either really are built up at
the end of the first quarter of next year
DATE
some going into the
second
ORDINAL
Sign deals or chasing to find new target companies to bring public when you look at some of the breakups that we've seen in
the last few days
DATE
. Those are either in things like electronic vehicles, cryptocurrencies, so a lot High growth technology companies that are ways away from generating any kind of eBadah and that's really something we've seen fall out broadly across the actual public markets so that's part of the reason that these plug has been pulled on some of these deals So About the broader market for spacks So that means that they're actually a partner Between the sponsorship team and the target company so you can you can expect to continue to see some of these getting across the finish line but the way these D-Spacks are trading
2022
DATE
class is down immediate
48%
PERCENT
this Via the traditional IPO so you can expect to see some deals getting across the finish line but there is expectations for liquidations like we saw with
the Bill Ackman's
ORG
back like we saw
Sam Zella
PERSON
announcing
last week
DATE
in addition To expectations that we will see some of these deals being broken just because these terms were agreed to back in
December
DATE
even through
April
DATE
when the market wasn't very different shape compared to where it is right now where there Many concerns about a potential recession and what lies ahead with expectations for the
fed
ORG
to continue to hike interest rates. So question does this trend pick back up when or if hopefully the Get better or longer term our investors just souring on this as a means of doing business yes sponsors are really optimistic that they Announcing that they plan to push back
two
CARDINAL
deadlines to sometime next year kind of the reading of the room from talking to investors is the idea that as the market rebounds there will For some of these experienced sponsors to find and bring private targets public but the expectation from the people that I talked to The futuration of facts in
2022
DATE
or in
2023
DATE
and in
2024
DATE
will really look what like what it did back in
2019
DATE
where you've got
50 to 60
CARDINAL
specs
Filing
GPE
to go public they're taking some of these smaller target companies public that maybe don't have the following to get a bank like a JP Morgan or
Goldman Sax
PERSON
to underwrite their IPO and we'll find ways to get deals across the finish line but broadly speaking the expect An anomaly. Alright really interesting
Bailey
ORG
's thank you for covering that story for us alright coming up how conspiracy theorist
Alex Jones
PERSON
made even more money after being taken
Down
PERSON
from major social media platforms. Next.
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
In
the summer of 2018
DATE
Apple Facebook Spotify
Twitter
PRODUCT
and
YouTube
ORG
all band the media company of conspiracy theorist
Alex Joan Info
PERSON
wars. That means taking down many of its recorded broadcasts this after
Jones
PERSON
threatened then special council
Robert Muller
PERSON
. The platforms all sided some sort of unspecified content policy viol Their decision to deep platform the controversial host which was supposed to relocate
Jones
PERSON
to relative obscurity as it turns out
Jones
PERSON
' audience didn't quite disappear in fact Business became more lucrative than ever.
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
max
PERSON
chaf can take a deep dive into this for us.
Max
PERSON
, how was this even possible? Well so there are
two
CARDINAL
things that are going on one is that although the big tech companies banned info wars pages and in some cases eventually banned
Alex Jones
PERSON
they didn't take down you know they didn't stop the circulation of these sandy hook related conspiracy theories they didn't Other people from posting
Jones
PERSON
' videos either in support or in criticism of him and as a result even though he was banned you've still seen quite a lot of
Alex Jones
PERSON
on social media either in the form of him appearing on
Contrary Types
PERSON
like
Joe Rogan
PERSON
have
Alex Jones
PERSON
on on on their shows and as well as just people out there criticizing him and then the other thing that happened is that you know
Alex Jones
PERSON
used this and and turned it into a story line where Came this murder he does not make money through like a traditional media company as he makes money by selling products so there may be a situation where although his audience he's not getting a huge numbers he's making Money off of the audience that he does have because he's been able to activate them by spinning this narrative of murder dumb which as we learned during the trial it it simply isn't true he's doing really well financially You mentioned the trial of course Judge awarding the parents of
one
CARDINAL
of the Sandy Hook victims
tens of millions of dollars
MONEY
there's also a
Texas
GPE
verdict another
one
CARDINAL
coming up are these Text these penalties actually changing the narrative around him or are they making him potentially more powerful Well, it's hard to know. I mean, what you have, you have a jury award in
Texas
GPE
. That's the
50 1 million dollars
MONEY
you may make.
Or are they making him potentially more powerful Well, it's hard to know. I mean, what you have, you have a jury award in
Texas
GPE
. That's the
50 1 million dollars
MONEY
you mentioned. You also have this case in
Connecticut
GPE
. In both of these cases,
Jones
PERSON
has been found to have defamed the families and you have trials to decide on the damages and, and, in the thing is, it's very This is probably the end of
Alex Jones'
PERSON
career you know he's gone too far but but people have been For a long time and you know, as I point out a column, you still have lots of people, lots of companies, basically enabling and and making money off of this
Alex Jones
PERSON
has AA book that's coming out it's it's near the top of
Amazon
ORG
's best seller list there's a there's a documentary a very sympathetic That that that has just come out. So you have lots and lots of media types still kind of like I said eating off of these conspiracy theories in
one
CARDINAL
way or another. And it's it's
Conspiracy
PERSON
theories towards the parents was you know it's it's disturbing. Right. Oh yes. Well you can read more of that in
Max
PERSON
's story.
Max
PERSON
, thank you for bringing that issue to light with us and
Verdict
PERSON
from the upcoming trials. Alright, coming up. New analysis from
Bloomberg
GPE
finds that
Google Maps
ORG
routinely misleads people looking for abortion clinics but have more on that later in the show. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Digital
ORG
privacy landscape in a post rural world issues with access
Information
ORG
on abortion and the power that tech companies have to safeguard that information. Well, it turns out that even
Google Maps
ORG
regularly miss leads people searching for abortion clinics. This according New analysis by
Bloomberg News
ORG
. Let's take a deep dive on this with
Bloomberg
PERSON
's
Jack Gillan
PERSON
who went through all of the data for us. So, tell us what you found,
Jack
PERSON
. So, Emily, we wanted to just start out as if somebody wanted to find an abortion clinic, right? A very straightforward search that you would put into
Google Maps
ORG
and when we did that for all
50
CARDINAL
The results were pretty surprising
about a quarter
CARDINAL
of the cases Not abortion clinics but instead what are called crisis pregnancy centers these places that are popular are encouraged to encourage women when they come in to not get an abortion and even though they often will masquerade themselves as a as a bonafide abortion clinic or some sort of doctor's office You know, this is very different than if you maybe type in certain maybe fast food chain or type of restaurant. It'll give you alternatives. In this case, post row. It's led to Confusion among folks so we've spoken with who believe Google they see the result they soon that it's an abortion clinic they go there and in some cases they're in for a pretty alarming surprise What is this practically mean for those seeking an abortion? So what it means is that if somebody is in need of this procedure and they go to one of these places and it's a crisis pregnancy center they can be sort of drawn into this process and be told Medical information that they don't need one. We spoke with
one
CARDINAL
woman who in fact googled an abortion clinic who ended up going to a crisis crisis pregnancy And they try to convince her that if you just stay in this relationship with the baby things will get better So I mean it's unclear what sort of emotional and damage that did to that woman and other people who were seeking particularly if they are seeking an abortion there might not be people who are up to date on this post World and it really sort of raises questions in
a quarter
CARDINAL
of these cases that we found what happens when somebody is in need and when they search and get a wrong What's google doing about this? So, they say that they have extra layers of verification in place. They have policies. They say that prevent this and people can report these around these results. You know, there's still the the critics we've spoken to ask, well, cuz Google doing enough, given that Results in your account
Alright
ORG
,
Jack Gillan
PERSON
, thanks for bringing that story to light. Appreciate it. Well for more on the implications and the power of tech in a post raw world and the impact on tech telehealth tech investing at large I wanna bring in
Susan BBG
PERSON
adventures managing partner formally and executive with
AOL
ORG
and guilt group just to name a few. So,
Susan
PERSON
, you know, as we were talking about tech platforms have incredible power. In a post And obviously have some decisions to make about how they lose use that power. What are you most concerned about? From the perspective of an investor. As we see these issues play out That's a really good question. I actually think about it more as That that exist you know it's it's really clear that That women are not being served certainly in the
States
GPE
that
You know it's it's really clear that That women are not being served certainly in the
States
GPE
that have banned abortion But additionally I think that there's gonna be just a huge impact on on business overall So that always creates opportunity there there will be founders out there who are looking for That Enable companies to really address the retention issues that the recruitment issues
Challenges
PERSON
and a post row era. I'm I mean this is there are
two 1 million
QUANTITY
fewer women in the workforce today than there were So lot of women left for multiple reasons remote learning daycare centers closing and just the overall caregiver issues All to women. Those women have not come back. This Ruling is going to just exacerbate that. We're gonna see fewer women in the workforce. We're gonna see fewer women Sing a company's And we all know that gender diverse Perform better so until unless Companies find a way to
Begin
PERSON
to mitigate this I I think we're gonna have big challenges So how was this impacting your own investment thesis? You know So it's health care, work, finance, education, climate, And All areas where diverse founders have been traditionally overlooked But one of the things we've learned during Not
the 8 years
DATE
,
9 years
DATE
, we've been doing this. Is that people with lived experience as well as learned experience people who really understand the and users of a tech platform. The people whose lives are gonna be better for it. Our generally the people Gonna come up with better solutions. So, it's really for us, it's always looking a little bit Ahead of where things are right now To identify where the opportunities exist and and I think we're seeing them in multiple areas. Certainly telehealth. It's Interesting arena right now look in The restrictions on Abortions which used to demand that you go to a hospital or a health care provider in order to get prescriptions that was lifted because of COVID and those restrictions are still So that opens the way for a whole new stream of of telehealth solutions companies that are are both serving women in their own states but also women nationally. You mentioned the women that we've lost in the workforce post pandemic and there's been a big concern about female entrepreneurs Also back sliding in the pandemic you know for example in a tough market conditions investors might go back to what they know and you know continue to back this Stereotypical idea of what a founder should look like which is not necessarily a woman are you seeing evidence that female founders and entrepreneurs are you know more of a disadvantage than they were Yard of
2020
DATE
. You know, I would say no. We have seen Or female founders pitching
this year
DATE
than we did
last year
DATE
.
More last year
DATE
than we did
the year before
DATE
. I think part of The reason is that we invest early. We invested seed stage even sometimes pre seed. Those rounds have been far less impacted by the market changes And that's where you find.
Those rounds have been far less impacted by the market changes and that's where you find most women playing too right they have not been doing this for long enough to have You know, seeing
hundreds and hundreds
CARDINAL
of IPOs at this point. So I think for the time being women are slightly advantaged By what's been happening nationally in fact the The Part of
22
CARDINAL
And increase in the percent of rounds that were led by women. What's your brother thesis about the market environment? Obviously, we know we're seeing a lots of volatility in the public markets, you know, we're hearing the potential for the hard word over and over again. We know it's impact Private markets that valuations are coming down. What are you seeing and how concerned are you about the macro environment? On the funding environment Yeah look I think that We told our founders to really think hard about how they were spending capital
this year
DATE
not a good time to have to go out and raise a company is doing really well and And sees a path really capitalize on this moment in order to To do a giant round
next year
DATE
. That's great. We're all for that but there are definitely gonna be a number of companies that are Companies that just run out of cash
this year
DATE
because
Venture
ORG
capital is investing far more solely We've seen it in multiple times now where we're rounds that ordinarily would have taken
a month
DATE
or
6 weeks
DATE
or taking
2 months 3 months 4 months
DATE
and that's rough on Founders that's rough on companies And there are gonna be companies that that unfairly go under Alright well lots to continue to watch
Susan
PERSON
. Good to have you back on the show. It's been a while.
BBG ventures
ORG
managing partner
Susan Line
PERSON
Thank you. Coming up galaxy digital wants to end its acquisition We'll tell you how. Next. This is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
Elan Mosque
ORG
isn't the only one walking away from deals in the crypto world
Mike Novagratz
PERSON
has galaxy digital now says it's terminating it's ac In a bit girl $
one
MONEY
.
2 billion
CARDINAL
deal there citing bit goes failure to deliver audit and financial statements for
2021
DATE
by a deadline to get out into this with our crypto contributionally bisexual Bit go is fighting back oh they certainly are and it's a really interesting deal to look at Emily this is one of the largest we've seen in the crypto universe galaxy digitals $
one
MONEY
. 2 billion agreement and they've been waiting the industry investors have been waiting a long time for this deal to close now we know that galaxy is looking to terminate this deal and
Bitco
ORG
wants them to pay that If you look at the statements here by bit goes lawyers a they're saying that it it's pretty audacious that
Mike Novagrats
PERSON
Would go blaming bit go on this murder they call it absurd and this is according to the partner from it goes legal team here both galaxy and mister no regrets have been Either galaxy
One 1 million dollars
MONEY
termination fee is promised or it has been acting bad faith and faces damages of that much or more. So again, Emily,
kinda
PERSON
like
Twitter
PERSON
here. It's not Terminate a deal while galaxy shares have been under pressure they are up on the day so you do see investors really applauding the decision to let go of what would have been much more expensive Alright hang on
Chanel
ORG
I wanna get into this and more with
Cavita Gupta
ORG
General Partner at
Delta Blockchain Fund
ORG
Avenger Capital Firm that focuses
Blockchain
PERSON
What do you make of this latest development and no regrets trying to get out of this deal? I I generally feel like if anybody who is in the
VC
PERSON
's pace would look at the deal and say hey the valuations are different from the time the Which is very easily probable by the exchange of emails so could have never Actually doing the deal. I generally feel it's the market sentiments than anything else where the galaxy can afford it. Does needed at the same valuation or does it even make sense You know I'm so curious about what you think this means for deal making moving forward. This was such a massive deal on the space. A lot had to be set about confidence with the Galaxies and they seem to be busy but are these deals born out of a market that is trying to restructure or deals born out of a chance to build Longer market at the end. I feel like it's everywhere, right? So, you have deals which is like going basis making with institutional accounts to be able to help them have their private wealth managers do direct crypto or ownership. So, I Infrastructure play is going on with respect to crypto companies which are going ah which exist at the very big level but acquisition offers if the offer if the Early stage investments have also asked money or disappeared or backed
Last couple of month
DATE
continue. But I think this is one of those cases where the valuation is still the old bill and the deal has to be done in the market Can get a better deal. Another deal on the market that is worth talking about is this idea that you can pay through red
Will the old world and the deal has to be done in the market where you can get a better deal Market that is worth talking about is this idea that you can pay through reddit for a way to purchase
Ethereum
ORG
through an integration with
FTX
ORG
. You know, Do we think that more social media platforms will partner with companies like this to get the job done? Yeah and I think this is not the
first
ORDINAL
one. Twitter did it already. They just did it with bitcoin. I think we gonna see more and more back to adoption when you say they will be an extra layer of payment through blockchain if you directly wanna And getting new customers like how are you gonna get them and I think it's a very smart way FTX is coming and not only working with social Media platform but any payment, any place where you have an e-commerce option to be done. Just add another crypto payment system out there
Alright Kavida
PERSON
thank you so much for joining us always great to have your take on the latest dramatic twist
Community
ORG
group chain fund along with our very own
Chanali Bosic
LOC
. Coming up. Snapchats
one 1 million
CARDINAL
paid. Yes paid. Subscribers. What that means for the social giants?
Efforts Away
PERSON
from advertising. We'll discuss next. This is
Bloomberg Snap
PERSON
says it's paid subscription plan is a hit with more than a
one 1 million
CARDINAL
users across The company launched Snapchat plus back in
June
DATE
a plan that gives us early and exclusive access Features for
399
CARDINAL
a month including changing the app icon and seeing who rewatched your story let's bring in our own
Alex Barinka
PERSON
for more on this so kind of surprising that Snap was able Up this many Subscribers. What exactly are they so excited about Yeah and and doing it in
just 6 weeks
DATE
since this product has launched so a lot of these subscribers are you can probably assume the younger users that snap has brought on to the platform and try to give them interesting exclusive new ways to monetize a one 1 million Emily it's the number that surprised me
Exclusive new ways to monetize a one 1 million Emily it's the number that surprised me but it'll Probably be a surprising but important number for snap is they move forward and look for revenue streams outside of kind of their believered Death. So How quickly and how much do you think Snap can expand this? I can tell you this is what they're focused on right now if you remember their last earnings report
just over a month ago
DATE
they got hammered in the markets they basically came out and said our advertisers aren't spending money in the platform we're seeing a lot of softness on that side of the business when you think about snap Places they can really make money it's the advertisers and then it's users like this with Snapchat Now, in the social media industry, we know historically, it's been pretty tough to get users to pay up So this seems to be kind of an early win for snap. Historically, this is a company that Really good at rolling up products that they know their users would love and it seems like they're they're finding a little bit of a winning ticket here which again as advertisers tend to be a little bit pocket Okay so our other social media companies gonna try to do this and is it gonna work I mean
Roger McNamee
PERSON
early Facebook investor has been pushing for a subscription model at Facebook free years you know could Instagram do this or
TikTok
ORG
I think the question will be what value can they provide? So, snap is giving people like the ability to get to the front
Celebrities
ORG
DMs when you direct message them when you look at
Instagram
NORP
and Facebook and
TikTok
NORP
right now it seems like they're rolling out
Algorithmically Feeds
PERSON
or focusing on different types of content. So, I do think this is a place where
Snap
ORG
is unique. It's smaller. It's a bit of a different platform than those other names that you mentioned and again, they've been laser focused on kind of doing things. Maybe zagging whenever everyone else is digging, focusing on Messaging whenever everyone else is focusing on broadcasting messages to the world. So, probably you need case here. We've seen the likes of like
Twitter
PERSON
flirt A little bit. Haven't seen any news really of somebody getting to a
one 1 million
CARDINAL
users paying for something within a social media platform So, this is my next question. What Continue to differentiate Snapchat in a sea of other options. Yeah so snap has been focused around kind of this idea of a camera company and that seems to be kind of where they're sitting. Ways to create content. They're filters and their lenses continue to be differentiated even though you see
TikTok
ORG
kind of creeping up on Also they spend a lot of time really focusing on person to person Which again it is not necessarily the the main theater the home feed on a lot of other app Snap also again kind of is winning over this younger market. Now, Emily will remind folks that snap is a much smaller Erase It does seem like they are kind of really zeroing and on what that younger
18 to 24 year old
DATE
demographic wants and catering to They wanna talk and spend time with their friends one on one instead of just broadcasting content to the world So
1000002 months
DATE
does that mean
12 1 million
QUANTITY
in
a year
DATE
? We'll see back and knock and knock that's like
48
CARDINAL
millimeter at the current number if everyone's
Every month
DATE
. One% of revenue there Emily but we'll see if those numbers shake out and if folks stick Paying $
four
MONEY
a month for these extra features. Hey
Alex Baringa
PERSON
as always thank you for stopping by. And that does it for this edition of
Bloomberg Technology
ORG
Tuesday
DATE
we're gonna be talking about investing in clean energy with
Jason Kelly
PERSON
ginko bio works as president
Biden
PERSON
signs the inflation Wherever you get your podcasts I'm
Emily Jane
PERSON
in
San Francisco
GPE
this is
Bloomberg
PERSON
.
The great sci-fi art of
the mid 20th century
DATE
tea is the vision of the future with
one
CARDINAL
distinct element and common A life for humans in outer space whether vacation
The great sci-fi art of
the mid 20th century
DATE
tea is the vision of the future with
one
CARDINAL
distinct element and common a life for humans in outer space Hey Shane on an exotic new planet or commuting to the moon for business
Seem
PERSON
like it was just around the corner. Hey, here we are. I have century later and
only about 500
CARDINAL
human beings have ever left the bounds of
earth
LOC
's atmosphere. But thanks to a set of ambitious private companies betting on the promise of space tourism. That long awaited future could be here sooner than we think. For most of the history of space flight governments have been the prime force behind nearly every aspect from planning to funding to crucial election. But as early as the
1980
DATE
's proposals for commercial space tourism began to emerge along with innovative solutions for getting people there such as the wild concept of sticking a
74
CARDINAL
person passenger cabin and the cargo bay of a
Nasa
ORG
space shuttle Although various non astronauts have been selected permissions over
the years
DATE
true space tourism didn't happen until
2001
DATE
when an entrepreneur named
Dennis Tito
PERSON
coughed up and estimated
20 1 million dollars
MONEY
to hit your ride with the
Russian
NORP
federal space agency For
a week
DATE
long vacation aboard
the International Space Station
FAC
20 years later
DATE
we're seeing a new contender in this final frontier of tourism Private companies. Coming up a private enterprise Still very high risk with the higher war potential reward But you know government is really out of the business of of flying people now and it's it's really gonna be companies like
Elon Musk
PERSON
and
Jeff Bezos
PERSON
and
Richard Branson
PERSON
that that do that heavy lift Commercial space tourism is usually about taking the non-astronaut the private citizen And orbital or suborbital flight so you get a short amount of microgravity experience and you can float and take some photos and then you come back This was something that technology had gotten to a point where the private sector was going to make a business out of this. There are multiple companies that wanna get to the place where they fly people into space. The
first
ORDINAL
of these is blue origin founded in
2000
DATE
by
Jeff Bezos
PERSON
using the autonomous rocket system new shepherd attribute to the
first
ORDINAL
American
NORP
in space blue origin plans to launch
up to six
CARDINAL
passengers at a time offering a verified treat of
62
CARDINAL
mi high views and a momentary experience of weightlessness
Booking
ORG
officially kicked off in
May 2021
DATE
with the very first C to be auctioned off for charity meanwhile
Richard Branson's
PERSON
virgin galactic has also been pursuing a viable form of suborbital tourism aiming for launch in
2022
DATE
once sir
Richard
PERSON
himself has taken a flight So I got the whip on the team and we we'll see how he goes. The company claims to have lined up over
600
CARDINAL
seat reservations so far including
Justin Bieber
PERSON
and
Leonardo DiCaprio
PERSON
. Virgin has projected that the final cost to the ticket will be
at least 250 1000
CARDINAL
Or
roughly $50 thousand
MONEY
for each of
the 5 minutes
TIME
or so of weightlessness that you'll get to experience although costly both companies offerings aim to make suborbital flight a regular form of adventure travel eventually driving down costs at scale to expand the customer base beyond the or Celebrities and billionaires. The
third
ORDINAL
major contender is
Elon Musk's
PERSON
SpaceX which has set its sites even higher on orbital flights which are Another level of complexity and energy and danger. When you go suborbital, if you're just gonna go up above the bond Carmen line which is
100 km
QUANTITY
or about 62 mi You will need to get up to maybe
5000 mi an hour
TIME
to get up there and you go basically straight up and then straight back down if you don't have the reentry heating that you would see coming in from a normal so when you go orbital I don't care if you're a baseball or a battleship you gotta go
17500 mph
QUANTITY
not just
1000
CARDINAL
mi an hour. The energy is involved are much greater. By doing that, SpaceX has gone another level up and that's what they're doing with the inspiration for. Dot com for your chance Go to space. Inspiration for is the
first
ORDINAL
planned all civilian mission into orbit slated to launch in
late 2021
DATE
Your chance to go to space Inspiration for is the
first
ORDINAL
planned all civilian mission into orbit slated to launch in
late 2021
DATE
. The crew will bring their own set of diverse perspectives and backgrounds and experiences to test how group of different people namely people who aren't professional astronauts, good affair in space. Until now astronauts have had to be physically perfect and this mission is changing that and so I feel incredibly honored to to be representing those who aren't physically perfect. At
age 10
DATE
I was diagnosed with bone cancer and I was treated at
Saint Jude Children's
FAC
Research Hospital And I spent a year there undergoing intense chemo and also surgery that ultimately saved my leg. I now work at
Saint Jude
FAC
as a PA physician assistant and I work with leukemia lymphoma patients. The kids we work Are are so brave and they are very excited to watch me go to space because this is showing them that you know they they're capable of doing this as well Hey
Lee
PERSON
along with
three
CARDINAL
other crew members we'll spend
3 days
DATE
in space orbiting near earth
every 90 minutes
TIME
before landing back off the coast of
Florida
GPE
well when you think about access the
first
ORDINAL
The astronauts for
the United States
GPE
came from the test pilot side So, women born allowed to be a part of that. We have somebody in their
20s
DATE
, somebody in their
30s
DATE
, somebody in
the 40s
DATE
, and somebody in their
50s
DATE
, and so there can be access in all kinds of way, whether you're talking about age, whether you're talking about gender, what you're talking about, race and ethnicity, and all of those The
first
ORDINAL
time, you know, people are going up into space and not sent there by superpower like
the United States
GPE
or
Russia
GPE
or
China
GPE
. Well, that's like really significant. And you know you've you've gotta you know be very thoughtful about it. The whole game plan right now is to make space like really affordable and you know accessible for everybody so you can have fishing buddies going to space someday but the
first
ORDINAL
is special. And so with that we wanted to have you know a cruise selection process that could make space available to everyday people. Hey Facebook Into space is only the
first
ORDINAL
step for space tourism. The next challenge is what to do and where to stay when you get there. Axium space is planning to launch the
first
ORDINAL
segment of a new commercial space station in
2024
DATE
there are
two 1 billion dollars
MONEY
project called act station will become the
first
ORDINAL
free flying private international space station. Or to use a more consumer friendly term. A space hotel. Actually miss the only company out to make your space stay a little more comfortable. Igloo aerospace has been building what they call expandable habitat technology. Like there are B 330 uninflatable pod module that expands once in orbit. Wanna attach to
National Space Station
ORG
right now. They've been testing it and you take it up in it and it's rather small and then you inflate it and it seems to be working very very well. This is likely to be the
first
ORDINAL
kind of Hotel that you're gonna see up in space.
First
ORDINAL
of all, it's easier to carry instead of this giant tin can with with all of that. You play the Wolver You just blow em up and they they get a nice, big size for about, you know,
half
CARDINAL
the list and
half
CARDINAL
the weight probably. But even a space missions become accessible to civilians. But risks of going to space are incredibly high And you could die a
1000
CARDINAL
ways that we can think of and a
1000
CARDINAL
other ways that we can't think of This is
Michelle Hanlon
PERSON
she's a space lawyer at
the Mississippi School of Law
ORG
focused on protecting humans in outer space no I'm not an attorney for any of the space tourists so I haven't been privy to their private contracts but I can tell you that the
FAA
ORG
requires certain waivers to be in those contracts so for example the
FAA
ORG
Well, we're not going to make you make your spacecraft to a certain safety level. We are going to make you spacecraft operator. Make sure that you inform your space tourists of all of that hazards that you know of that I'd imagine a very long way where all the ways you can die in space. And you have to understand that there's health risks and you have to indemnify the
US
GPE
government if you are launching
the United States
GPE
. So those are things that we know is Facebook tourists has to sign and has to wait. So now let's go back and think about our space flight participants. The
FAA
ORG
calls space tourists space flight They don't call them astronauts. Why is that important? If you're not an astronaut, there's no.
Like participants. The
FAA
ORG
calls space tourists, space flight participants. They don't call them astronauts. Why is that important? If you're not an astronaut, there's no obligation to rescue you. I have something goes wrong. It's a lot of money to set up and rescue lunch. Can even be dark it's something really important to think about and that difference as we as we cross this threshold from having astronauts and space to having real people like me in space And when we're able to make it to space reliably enough there's still a host of other legal and ethical issues to consider before space tourism can truly take off There are so many gaps in space law that we are gonna have to put in a lot of certain basement ideas and so for example the outer space treaty is a treaty that offers principles and guidelines for state activities Activities of national governments. About humans in space. So now, something goes wrong. So, let's think about all the times hotels on earth are so, right? So, slip and falls. You step on something in the bathroom. You see the hotel and it becomes a private Related to that The way and the outer space treating the outer space regime have set this up is that anything that happens in space first has to go through a diplomatic channel before you think about suing in a court of law and so every single slip and fall in a hace in a space hotel is a diplomatic nightmare. And so we really need Figure that out before we before we start sending a lot of people there. Human rights in space here we don't think about a human right oxygen because it's Kind of all around us some free it's not in a space hotel What happens if something happens in the oxygen depletes? Who gets the oxygen first? And then of course, let's not even think about the labor. How do you treat your labor in a space hotel where that person it may be there
2 or 3 years
DATE
without coming To earth. So a lot of things to think about. Please habitats are more likely in the near future to focus on research missions and be a home for experiments that can't happen as easily back on earth. Our space hotels I think they garner a lot of headlines and a lot of news But at the same time, that's not the first thing that you're gonna see happen. They don't offer the compelling business case. I think that you'll see from a place that wants to manufacture pharmaceuticals or a new type of crystal or Type of filament or fiber optic cables and and other things that you can do at micro The things that are actually You know I high value Finished good when you get that back to earth and you sell it for a very very huge profit margin. That's what's likely to happen in space as opposed to having AA real estate platform that you sell to our tourists at
Space Hotel
ORG
. It's really interesting and it will probably happen but it's not likely to be at the forefront of space commerce. Even if space hotels are right around the corner don't get too excited about booking a trip in
one
CARDINAL
Millionaires
PERSON
and billionaires and that sort but at the same time, you know, the point was made that in
the early days
DATE
of airline trips, that was also a completely unaffordable ticket for most people Those people who flew were people of means and overtime it becomes affordable to the masses and I think that's the goal for all the entrepreneurs in space as well to get those costs down to a point where it's not
10 1 million
QUANTITY
Five 1 million dollars
MONEY
or
$300 thousand
MONEY
ride in this horrible space when it becomes more like buying a
first
ORDINAL
class ticket to go to
Europe
LOC
from
the United It
GPE
. So that that's the goal and you know the question is can can we get to that point? Given the immense operating cost of getting to space it maybe
years
DATE
if ever until space tours and becomes a profitable venture for any of these companies
Virgin
PERSON
galactic the only publicly traded company of the
three
CARDINAL
has had
a particularly rocky year
DATE
initially riding on the momentum of a spec deal but more recently beset by launch delays and major funders including
Branson
PERSON
himself selling large quantities of their stock
Major funders including
Branson
ORG
himself selling large quantities of their stock at the company. Space is really, really, really hard and it's an absolutely cliche but it's one that happens to be very true. It's just really hard to do. That's also the reason that you've seen Ways that you know virgin had talked
about flying years
DATE
and
years ago
DATE
and it became such a crazy point that
Richard Branson
PERSON
actually stopped talking about it when he was asked because it was never gonna be when he predicted but it's not instrumental and you know, investors have stepped up because this is something that is doable Despite the astronomical dangers and costs of getting to space it may ultimately follow the course of other once fanciful modes of travel
Right Brothers
ORG
having you know what was by modern standards a very unimpressive first flight you know a kitty hawk I mean you know you had like less than 20 years later you had your
first
ORDINAL
airborne ambulance is being used to to save lives fundamentally the world is a more interesting place when people can go and dance them on the stars and such Hey Hey And we wanna go out there and see what's out there. That I had in
1969
DATE
of seeing normal human beings traveling to space it's finally beginning to happen when you get a bunch of people up there and they can all see it for themselves that'll create even get another revolution And how we treat our planet and what we think about. So
2001
DATE
came and went without quite looking like
Stanley Cubert's
PERSON
ultimate space fantasy 2021 might finally be
the year
DATE
we're catching up Go to
Disneyland
FAC
. We're jumping your convertible then take highway one up the coast. Or maybe make a pilgrimage to Yosemite. Oh very fine choices. But if you're the kind of person who revels in our planets extremes.
395
CARDINAL
that you're after. One glorious road will carry you from death valley's desert floor to sky high views of
Mt. Whitney
LOC
You can see the 5000 year old bristle cone pines. The oldest living organisms. Or the bizarre
two
CARDINAL
for towers of mono lake. And true to
California
GPE
's boom and bust spirit. Ghost out of Body. What a novel experience to find an empty
American
NORP
city where all the businesses are shut down. To do
395
CARDINAL
upright it helps to have a guide In mine is a man named
Yon
PERSON
And it's true
Aaron
PERSON
.
To do
395
CARDINAL
upright it helps to have a guide And it's true
Aaron
PERSON
The hardest parting dog of all time. John agreed to show me some of what
395
CARDINAL
has to offer. But only if we agreed not to disclose any locations My name is
Yance Restaurant
PERSON
. I'm an industrial designer out of
LA
GPE
and I spend a lot of time camping and a lot of time in
the Eastern Sierra
LOC
. It's a place I love and sometimes I'm known as
395
CARDINAL
North because Yep my Instagram account and I don't like to be known as that but I'm trying to use it to set a good example Do more with it than just social media. Where did we end up? We got here Layla. I was gonna be sure where we are. This is
BLM
ORG
land right on the outskirts of
National Forest
ORG
.
One
CARDINAL
of my favorite places in the world Everything outdoors wrapped into one. Oh man. We have so much national forest in public land That Literally just cruise out and find a place to camp. It's ours. What i wish was mine is yan sweet truck. It's a
2019
DATE
Ford Ranger
PERSON
has
about 200 watts
QUANTITY
of solar in it and a fridge and has everything that our
RV
ORG
has except for a toilet. Yeah. But just on a smaller simple scale. Is you drivers around day to day in
LA
GPE
? Yep. And then just roll out when you want. It's my
daily
DATE
driver. And then when I'm done with work I can just
Bail
PERSON
and go camping. So, the camper basically has only what I need. Think of it as backpacking with a car. Yeah. The fridge has a couple compartments This is just a kitchen box. Utensils and a bunch of stuff. This one has just dry food and when you get inside, there's a bed. The bed What's up so you've got
tons
CARDINAL
of room in here Miss
Annie
PERSON
. It's phenomenal. If you wanna pull that over That was cool. We just popped that up. So Home on Wheels. Yeah. This is my vacation house.
Dude
PERSON
, it's so nice Even with his nomad lifestyle
John
PERSON
faces the same big question as the rest of us. Do the internet and smartphones have to ruin everything when you find the super special beautiful spots is that You busted out a map and like looking where might be cool to go or is it where the mouth and just getting to know people of the locals and If I see a dirt road, I just wanna go down. So, a lot of us just aimless rambling. It's a desire to just see something. Check that out. For some reason it's more fulfilling than Getting a recommendation from somebody or
Tons
PERSON
of apps and websites now road trip apps camping apps They proliferated. The knowledge is accessible on the internet, right? I I used to fight The geo tags and and I would get really pissed off. Why are you posting this place? It's gonna blow up. It's gonna get trashed Now I've realized that you you can't fight it. The internet has just shrunk the world. So we're not gonna stop it. We're not gonna stop people from Going there. So, I'm a lot more focused in conversation now with Trying to set a good example. When you go, pick up your trash. Pooping out in the wilderness don't leave your toilet paper on You know, make sure you follow, you know, good steps for leaving no trace. There's a thank you for this quick guide to pooping etiquette. We made yan heron and lemmy some tacos. And we all took in the night sky And knock back a couple of drinks.
They wanted to know How did the alleged rapist hit the keys how did he get inside that he'd BMB And when they found out that the keys had been lifted the corner bodega that then created you know a problem of liability for your BMB they didn't have a policy around key exchange they didn't tell their hosts how they did or didn't have to hand keys over to guests as they were arriving
Sophia Airbnb
ORG
they also you know they wanted to know what was gonna be said in court they wanted to know if any media were gonna pick up on this story And they wanted to know what the illegal liability potentially could be. Later the alleged rapist was indicted and
the supreme court
ORG
in
New York
GPE
and
Airbnb
ORG
sent a staff member to find out if the company was gonna be mentioned in any of the court records And it wasn't. It wasn't mentioned in the police report. It wasn't mentioned by prosecutors. There's no mention of Airbnb really in any public record. This case has never been reported until now. And you know free Airbnb that was kind of lucky this case never landed in the media And you know
18 months later
DATE
when this woman's lawyer reached out to the company They signed a settlement for
seven 1 million dollars
MONEY
. And part of that settlement There's a cause that says she cannot
Assert
PERSON
or imply responsibility on the part of the company. We've spoken to legal experts who indicate that what this really did is gag the woman from saying I blame
Airbnb
ORG
. Airbnb is
one
CARDINAL
of the few companies in the world that has this like online offline kind of hybrid Where you have users who Meet online and then Meet in the offline world and stay under the same roof. And that means that the company at
the end of the day
DATE
really has to take more responsibility than other social media platforms might do. Will there be terms of service that really means that whenever there's a dispute between hosts and guests and the company this is all handled behind closed doors Arbitration. Most of these cases don't even make it to the courtroom. And when they do the company will settle them. So it doesn't go on through the courts. And
Means
PERSON
is that there hasn't really been a legal president that sit to determine what your
BMB
ORG
's liability is here. You know, is it really responsible for when things go wrong inside its listings? What I learned over the course of my reporting is that this is anything but simple This is a complicated nuanced area there are difficult trade offs here The company also has to have Tough conversations about policy. Airbnb's business model is based on strangers trusting one another We often hear from the founders and the chief executive himself saying trust is their
number one
CARDINAL
priority. I've actually heard
Brian Cheski
PERSON
, the chief executive of
Airbnb
ORG
, talking about how he didn't build a website or a platform that allows people to stay in each other's homes. What he built was a community that trusts one another And when that premise is undercut
Airbnb
ORG
's entire business model is under threat.
Phones
PRODUCT
earth view Sounds far fetched at the moment doesn't it But you know We may be seeing ads like this in the not too distant future. Living away from earth has always captured our imagination as well as providing the basics for survival these ideas are a symbol of humankinds unique creativity and ambition This advance bees or space station will be headquarters for the finalist sent to the moon
today
DATE
the idea of multiple outposts where we can live and work in space has never seen closer As a species having a path for our future. And the mission to create these habitats is well underway as private companies get ready to take that next giant leap The international space station it's the only space habitat we have
One
CARDINAL
of the first places they take you in the
ISS
ORG
is the coupon so you can finally look at the earth in all its beauty and it I don't care who you are it's always stunning and shocking it's it's amazing because that's the view you've been waiting for your entire life. It passes over
90%
PERCENT
of the world's population without most of us ever realizing Estimated cost of
150 1 billion dollars
MONEY
it's the most expensive object with ever built. You think about like the
16
CARDINAL
chapel, the pyramids, and the birds
Khalifa
PERSON
or or to take your pic. I mean, it far outstrips those. It's the one and only Us real human outpost we've had a constant human footprint in orbit for
almost 20 years
DATE
because of the international space station. The collaboration between
15
CARDINAL
countries started construction in
1998
DATE
and was peace together in space over the course of
a decade Since 2000
DATE
it's been a permanently crude research laboratory a space habitat that's allowed humankind to live manufacture and explore beyond earth The overarching achievement of the space station has been Education. It is educated us about how to do research. It's educated us about how to live. It's educated us about the harshness of the environment that it is in and it's about learning I think. People say what was one of your favorite parts about being up there I'm floating everywhere I went but your first impressions for
ISS
ORG
certainly is It's how big it is. The
ISS
ORG
is the size of an
American
NORP
football field with most of that footprint taken up by
eight
CARDINAL
solar eras these provide enough energy to power
40
CARDINAL
homes The station has an
American
NORP
side and a
Russian
NORP
side as well as contributions from other nations like
Canada
GPE
,
Japan
GPE
, and
the European Union
ORG
. Astronauts on board can pass freely between these sections their living and working areas are made up of modules each
four
CARDINAL
. Two metres in diameter and in total they have the same volume as the
Bowing
PRODUCT
747 The
three
CARDINAL
main labs destiny hope in
Columbus
GPE
are conducting up to
600
CARDINAL
ongoing experiments at anyone time And while it's been a collaboration between governments to build in maintaining
ISS
ORG
it's next chapter will rely more on private enterprise Very remarkable day. Opening the international space station to commercial opportunities Marketing these opportunities as we've never done before. Managing and maintaining me, I assess cost $
three
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
a year. That's over
Cost $
three
MONEY
.
4 billion
CARDINAL
a year. That's over
half
CARDINAL
Nasa
ORG
's space operations budget Aging hardware and space debris will only add to these costs which is my
Nasa
ORG
is now hoping to pass some responsibility for the station overtook commercial companies Like to see a robust commercial marketplace in lower thorough but we're space stations exist outside of
Nasa
ORG
the goal being that
Nasa
ORG
could be a customer and we wanna have numer
Providers
ORG
that are competing against each other on cost and innovation. With federal funding proposed to stop in
2025
DATE
opening the station to private enterprise with free up resources for the space agency's ambitions to return to the moon and journey to
Mars Transferring
NORP
to a more commercial model is allowing industry to take over many of those areas that
Nasa
ORG
has traditionally been responsible for like the design and operations and maintenance of space systems but the most exciting part I think is new opportunities the
iPhones
ORG
would have never come from the government The base technology came from the government but the way it's used, the way it interacts with consumers, governments, aren't really built for that. So, I think that would be exciting to see how private industry uses the same technology or or the same systems within using in a different way. Every
NASA
ORG
achievement has been the collaborative achievement of
Nasa
ORG
and industry. What's going on right now that's a little bit different is
Nasa
ORG
is turning to companies not to direct them what to do but it's turning to companies to build relationships with them because those companies are attracting investment from On space sources and are bringing a different kind of innovation to the table. In the shadow of
Nasa
ORG
's sprawling
Johnson
PERSON
's space center the headquarters of startup axium space might seem a little modest. But their goal is big to build the
first
ORDINAL
commercial space station Buy a former
ISS
ORG
program manager the team has been involved in every mission to the station since its inception We know it has to be much lower cost operate on orbit than
ISS
ORG
is
today
DATE
. So, this is key to continuing the heritage by SS. It's to start there so we can evolve everybody to the next platform. I like this to the internet. So, the internet was created. We got very excited and any kid with a good idea and just the basic programming skill Could go build a program to do something we have huge companies that grew out of that and still
today
DATE
there's new ideas new things being built. The thing about a micro rabbi environment is it's limitless. It's like the data we have access to on the internet. Is limitless. And it is not immediately obvious to us. All the benefits that that's gonna entail. But over time it will become very very obvious. By
2024
DATE
Axe implants to send a central node to attach to the
ISS
ORG
. That will make up the core of their new station Will be followed by crew quarters for
16
CARDINAL
people and research in manufacturing modules When the eye assesses retired this will break away an additional modules with a lifespan of
30 years
DATE
will be added and swapped out as they age using a robotic arm Hoping to do all of this for
one
CARDINAL
50th the cost of the
ISS
ORG
I mean, when you talk about our vision, it sounds really simple. It really is about The thought process and the cost So that anybody that wants to take advantage of our place in orbit and a microgravity environment can do so and that's really it. I need to go towards my feet.
Fantastic
NORP
vehicle but one of the big things is they have a quite a few Components outside Reduce size of components and so our design is gonna have all of the components you're gonna be in the pressurized environment So, we know what the basics are. You know, water food Clothing, life support, and we know how to handle those.
The components are gonna be in the pressurized environment So, we know the basics are, you know, water food Clothing life support and we know how to handle those but now the next step is how do we make it more intuitive and we want to now take advantage of the technologies and the and the capabilities have
the day
DATE
to build more luxury into the experience the objective is to make the environment the background for all the users your everyday doing Experience on
ISS
ORG
and what the team brings to the Able to build that environment. You won't worry about that
321
CARDINAL
, release, release, release. Space tourists with tickets starting at
55 1 million dollars
MONEY
for
a 10 day
DATE
mission
One
CARDINAL
part of the commercial space station market that they think could be worth
37 1 billion dollars
MONEY
over
the next decade
DATE
Our
first
ORDINAL
commercial customers are countries who have astronauts in space and want to expand their activity in space and countries who do not yet have a human space flight program who want to send people up and we've now got both research and manufacturing companies who Do work with us while we're at
the International Space Station
FAC
and on our platform after it separates from my SS. Human space flight is particularly exciting because it's at slice of space that is really nice and it hasn't undergone the crowding that satellites have had it hasn't already had that explosive growth it's really ready for that now The first thing I'm really looking forward to seeing happen is the face of our
first
ORDINAL
astronauts on orbit looking back down on us and knowing that we had a hand and sending that person to space and ultimately the separation of
ISS
ORG
when it's ready to be retired in the orbited and then we continue in space independently for That is a stepping off moment for humanity. It's almost like when
Neil Armstrong
PERSON
put that first boot on the moon. This will be the
first
ORDINAL
time that we've gone from a platform of learning how to live in space, to building our permanent home and space. Other private companies also want to use the
ISS
ORG
as a starting point for their own ventures. Aerospace already has one of its inflatable structures attached to the station and others including
Sierra Nevada
ORG
and
Nanarax
PERSON
have put forward proposals
Habitats
PERSON
are expensive. I think it's a fall steak economy to say, okay, we're done with the international space station. Let's move on to commercial platforms. What I think is much more likely and realistic in what
Nasa
ORG
is certainly driving toward is an incremental transition Commercial platforms attached to the space station or work collaboratively with the space station the next chapter of cannot occur Be active engagement of companies. That active engagement might not be as customers might not be as drivers it might be in service of government mission objectives we will return
American
NORP
astronauts to the moon not only to lead behind footprints and flags but to build the foundation we need to send
Americans
NORP
Mars
LOC
and beyond. This proposed mission along with
SpaceX
PERSON
's own ambition to reach a red planet his opened up a longer term market and some companies are already thinking beyond orbiting habitats like space stations to actually building on a surface of other planets I was working in a firm designing skyscrapers and you know I saw Elon and he landed his
Falcon
ORG
X rock in the middle of the ocean and that for me was a trigger I thought wow this could actually happen and it's always been my dream to put a building on the moon or
Mars
LOC
If he's going out the piece he's going it could definitely happen within my lifetime and I wanna be the one to build it. In this warehouse alongside startups from across the
US
GPE
architecture firm
AI
ORG
space factory a refining the production of Marsha a
four
CARDINAL
story structure they created for a
Nasa
ORG
competition to design the next generation of space habitats on
Mars
LOC
But what we were given was a
Space habitats on
Mars
LOC
. They think the best way to build a habitat on
Mars
LOC
or the moon is to use what they call institution Sci-fi movies you might see like glass and steel domes on distant planets but the reality is to ship that kind of material to the moon of
Mars
LOC
would be The idea is to send a 3d printing robot which can then harvest the materials you find on a site and build with that. Usable print material is a mix of bio polymer made from recycled plastic or plants like corn and sugarcane and bass salt a rock found on
Mars
LOC
and
Earth Rock
LOC
that gives us it's incredible strength. We've tested this material. It's
three
CARDINAL
times as strong as concrete in compression and it actually has what we call it a tensile capacity prevent itself from being pulled apart which is something concrete's not very good at. You need to think at all times how do you optimize the amount of material that you use and and that's also Optimize form. It's very very thin. A better strength that the agnes and and that's why this is shaped the way that it is. Shape as well as the nested shell structure also accommodates for extreme differences in pressure and temperature on the surface of
Mars
LOC
More research still needs to be done to find out how print materials could be gathered and how threeD printing would work in a unique environment of space You're dealing with a completely different set of physics and environments which is very harsh. Cold, you know, the low gravity, the vacuum of space, you know, and and finding solutions for how to build their, or do anything in space, just requires a high degree of innovation. There's no such thing as brute force when it comes to space, like you need to think about the problem Find a very elegant lightweight cost effective The next challenge is really going to places on earth Literally taking the dirt that we're finding on a site and beginning to print with the dirt. We have to perfect this technology on earth And then we go prove it out on the moon And then finally on to
Mars
LOC
. The
first
ORDINAL
customers could include
NASA
ORG
and companies like SpaceX who would lease out these structures for individual missions but before that AI space factory hope their technology could be monetized as well as transformational here on earth The challenges of building on
March 4
DATE
is to kinda make this jump in construction technology which we can now apply on earth to build more sustainably. So, rather than building with steel and concrete which are these manufactured, very energy intensive materials to go to a site have a solar powered array that would then allow our threeD printer to print in Sustainable way possible. And we never would have found these ways. There wasn't for the challenge of building in space.
Three.
CARDINAL
One. Hey humans have now been Living and working in
space Than 15 years
DATE
and if we want to keep that up Do habitats need to look like? And frankly, they can be larger, they can be small, but the future of space habitats really to me comes down to the ability to persistently maintain human presence. Whether that's a few people or many people. That seems to be the dividing line between where we were before and where we wanna be in the We have to learn how to benefit from what we do on orbit and bring those natural benefits back home so we help ourselves out on the ground while we also learn to live somewhere else and it really at the very deepest level is about survival or species so I get pretty excited when I spin a few moments thinking What we're off to go do cuz this really is the
first
ORDINAL
step to learning to live live off the planet. That
first
ORDINAL
step is just to start of our journey to create a lasting legacy in space. While commercial companies may be stepping into imagine what these new space habitats look like.
First
ORDINAL
step is just to start our journey to create a lasting legacy in space While commercial companies may be stepping into imagine what these new space habitats look like is what's happening inside of them that may unlock the future of space industrialization. On the next episode of
Giant Leap
ORG
we'll visit the private companies who are looking to build their business around manufacturing in space Using the unique properties of microgravity they plan to create new materials with extraordinary qualities that can't be replicated on earth Including new manufacturing techniques that could change how we build large structures in space and even unlock the ability to threeD print for human organs But the
four
CARDINAL
lowers will be can become a new industrial center we're going to need to take another giant leap This is how it used to work. A real estate agent would lock in the client. It stage the place hold an open house
every single weekend
DATE
and hope that the right buyer walks through that door The
first
ORDINAL
time I received a lead through
Instagram
ORG
my mind was blown if you're seeing something and a neighborhood that is established you have
2 to 3 days
DATE
after the open house and this market to make an offer our world has shifted so much folks Getting comfortable doing business either through social media or
100%
PERCENT
virtual social media like everything else it touches has turn the real estate business upside down You've heard this trope before millennials aren't buying and owning as much as their parents generation beat a car, a diamond, or a home, but the lack of ownership is not always by choice. In
2018
DATE
, a survey found that
89%
PERCENT
of millennial
Americans
NORP
want to buy a home. They just can't afford it. As of 2019 Millennials of all stripes owned only five% of
US
GPE
housing compared with
15%
PERCENT
for gen Xers Millennials haven't been able to make these big ticket purchases the same way as their predecessors did. Now, this is down to the financial crisis. We have rising student loan debt and a higher cost of living. Now, millennials are getting older. They're earning more money and saving more. So, now is
Airbnb
ORG
wants something to call their own. I got married and I have a child so you know looking for more space and thought about the conventional route of young and single living the city and then move out to the suburbs when you have a kid and a wife I've seen a whole bunch of my friends just move on down to the
west palm
GPE
beach
Miami
GPE
area
Austin Texas
PERSON
so they are certainly moving out of the city but space was top of mind for the moving out We live in Williamsburg for
about 16 plus years
DATE
and a week to you in the pandemic we just realized we needed more so we started looking for a house right away Now letting go in
New York
GPE
which is
about an hour and a half
TIME
from
New York City
GPE
. Instagram accounts like
Circa Houses
ORG
and cheap old houses.
For a house right away Now letting
Goshen
GPE
New York
GPE
which is
about an hour and a half
TIME
from
New York City
GPE
. Instagram accounts like
Circa Houses
ORG
in cheap old houses offer a glimpse into the perfect suburban life. Often it a price point not too dissimilar to what adults pay for rent in major cities. By
the end of 2020
DATE
New Yorkers
NORP
who didn't flee paid an average of $
2700
MONEY
a month for an apartment even as rent prices plummeted during the Emic. Millennials make a large percentage of spending right now and that makes them a valuable consumer for brands. That means they're being coded by everyone out there to spend with them. They grew up online they're comfortable with pretty much anything that you can do there and that's that's buying things, selling things,
Craig
PERSON
's list,
eBay
ORG
, all that. Making $
100
MONEY
purchase on
Craig
PERSON
's list or a
Purchase on eBay
WORK_OF_ART
. It's not that much of a leap to go even further. If you're buying AA fancy piece of jewelry or a house for a
one 1 million bucks
MONEY
. The uptick in home demand fueled by the pandemic combined with record low interest rates has made home buying extremely competitive over
the last year
DATE
so much so that some millennials look to social media to shop and actually buy their
first
ORDINAL
house site unseen. I saw sort of something on my Instagram feed and you know, clicked and we ended up seeing this house. The houses weren't really being shown at that time 'cuz we were in full lockdown. We became really interested.
One
CARDINAL
YouTube
ORG
video,
20
CARDINAL
Z Low photos. That is it. The red hot housing market spells opportunities for developers targeting this demographic getting eyeballs strictly through social media. People are not looking in the the back section of the times anymore for for real estate listings. Our demographic is
between late 20s to mid 40s
DATE
and that demographic is spending a lot of time on social media and they're doing a lot of shopping via Instagram and other social media platform This is
Joshua Gelb
PERSON
in Pene Hamburger During the pandemic, the
two
CARDINAL
New York City
GPE
based developers started
Neville House
PERSON
a new construction project
2 hours
TIME
north of the city. Unlike most traditional real estate listings the pair bypass the use of a broker and advertise their homes directly on
Instagram
ORG
no fees no commissions The higher broker work with them they would do showings on site now you basically put your renderings on on
Instagram
NORP
and within
an hour
TIME
you have
15 20
CARDINAL
replies saying can I come see it directly with you and let's see you tomorrow and and it's just completely changed the the game most people have that image in their head of the quick essential upstate
Said
PERSON
in the words we've definitely tried to tap into that and create something that's attainable for these people say you can have that you can be swiping through
Instagram
NORP
and I can be your home too There's been quite a proliferation of these directing consumer brands there's just tons of them out there it's not that hard to start up a website that's that sells things and get things manufactured for that e-commerce platform so like all birds with shoes
Casper
GPE
with mattresses or
Warbie Parker
PERSON
with glasses. All of that means a lot more opportunity for brands in the online shopping space. So, it's natural that real estate would wanna get involved as well with these big ticket items.
10 years ago
DATE
the broker would drive the search. Now I think that my clients text me listings. They have alerts. They find things quicker than we do sometimes cuz we're out and about. I'd say that the buyer is much more involved
these days
DATE
. Selling is creating brand new ways to shop. So let's look at vintage clothing for example. There are sellers on
Instagram
ORG
finding successful ways to sell
one
CARDINAL
of a kind items. It's that fleeting nature, the efferral nature of social media. You post the item online and whoever's
first
ORDINAL
gets that
one
CARDINAL
of a kind item. Real estate has similar scarcity to it. There's a
one
CARDINAL
place to buy. It's
one
CARDINAL
home,
one
CARDINAL
apartment,
one one
CARDINAL
thing. It's
one
CARDINAL
of a kind. But the rise in social media real estate isn't just about the instant gratification researcher
Andre Perry
PERSON
who studies economic inclusion at
the Brookings Institute
ORG
says social media has evolved from
the days
DATE
of online hangout spaces and mood boards
Researcher
Andre Perry
PERSON
who studies economic inclusion at
the Brookings Institute
ORG
says social media has evolved from
the days
DATE
of online hangout spaces and mood boards to a powerful change agent
Primary
PERSON
source to get news and information but it's not just about social media it's about the movement that we're in the racial justice uprising really gave people a sense of worth and empowerment and so people not only are getting information about what protects In the long run from economic shocks things like wealth in his research
Andre
ORG
found that not only are more millennials buying homes during the pandemic the rate of home ownership among black millennials are at historic highs The fastest way to accumulate wealth in this country traditionally has been through homeownership. Millennials in particular are saying, hey, I want protection. I wanna live longer. I want my education to go further. Let me acquire wealth and in the best way to do that is through home ownership. When the pandemic hit many of the amenities or the comforts that came along with those living conditions were gone. Folks couldn't go to bars and fancy shops and so you saw instead of people going out, buying clothes, they saved their money
Bob Property
PERSON
and outside of the city generally people are moving to the suburbs to rural areas places where home prices are a little bit cheaper many home buyers are looking for houses outside the major metropolitan areas additionally many home buyers are looking for direct outdoor access and added space as the uncertainty about the virus Millennials are also looking to influencers not just for the latest trends in tiktok dances but to partake in important conversations be it about politics or personal finance or anything in between Real estate ownership let's start small let's don't be scared to start small Written a big house in the hills in
California
GPE
like most artists do buy you won us on the flat. Meet folks like Brandon Rule and Charlamagne The God. With a mysterious
Process
LOC
that only a few people could teach me. Now, i can easily log on to clubhouse or
Instagram
NORP
and find literally lessons on how to purchase a home but done in a with Savvy and Finesse.
Today
DATE
, we're gonna make
Greenhouse
ORG
. Heather having bought her fix her upper sight on scene also look to internet personalities to help figure out how to modernize and to make sure her home was also an investment Lot of confidence. They make it look super easy. How we could do all of those things ourselves. My husband just installed the laundry shoe which is something we never would have thought of if we didn't see an influencer do that and and how how easy it actually is. Really simple. You can do that. If you have any questions, go ahead and message me. And in the case of
Neville House Josh
PERSON
and
Pele
PERSON
hope that buyers see these homes as potential secondary income Working these young families look at these products or look at our homes and say here's a turnkey this can serve our family but this can also be the perfect rental. We've tried to strike a balance in the design of the home for you know working well as a family home. That's gonna be lived in and also working as a as an investment A lot of this is points to how millennials can utilize and leverage social media to their benefit but it also speaks to again this moment that folks want freedom. So, millennials are really stepping up to this real estate game And taking ownership and building well Of course, not everything is as it seems online. While social media can be a useful tool for learning there's still a lot it can't tell you about the home buying experience or living in the suburbs for that matter. You going into it by Jeannine for a lot of renovations. We kind of thought if we buy it at
450
CARDINAL
we could
Living in the suburbs for that matter. We knew going into it by jitting for a lot of renovations. We kind of thought if we buy it at
450
CARDINAL
, we could put
two
CARDINAL
,
300 1000
QUANTITY
into the house and really make it ours and our own. To replace in this kitchen and update our built in deep fryer which was Not in the listing photos we kind of got into the house and we realized that budget was completely That we have a lot of people who see our design on
Instagram
NORP
they say I love it can you come build this on my property and then they'll send us a lot which they bought site unseen during COVID and because of site conditions or zoning it's virtually unbuildable I think we all know that what you see on
Instagram
NORP
and what you see in real life or
two
CARDINAL
very different things. So, while we can definitely as brokers create these fantastic narratives, the
one
CARDINAL
recommendation that I would give is, do your homework. Don't believe You say that's not to say that you know there's dishonesty or anything where people are trying to manipulate you but not everything you see is accurate This shift towards social media house hunting may also help to bring equilibrium to a market that has historically disadvantaged specific groups of buyers. Of the traditional ways that people got mortgages or or loans often precluded black people because they they deemed us too risky for those loans what technology there's ways to get around that as long as more black people get educated on racism Discrimination in linden. Ways to get around that racism. When I was
24 years old
DATE
I saw the
UFC
ORG
on a pay per view on TV I was so overwhelmed by the athleticism, the skill. Hey portal Hey portal Dan at the end of the fight the combatants hug they shook hands and I just fell in love with it part of
UFC
ORG
's appeal Is it doesn't look like a ballettic display of As much as it looks like a bar fight. We choose to do this because we love the sport but it is a business and if you do not treat it like a business I guarantee you if it's a promoter is And you will be left broken broken at the end of your career. Each of us have an individual story but as with anything you take enough of these individual stories and you see not only crossover but intersectionality. Federal judge said he would grant their lawsuit class action status there have been fights in every major
US
GPE
sport about workers power in the labor market There's a guy in the sport from the guy who just got his
first
ORDINAL
fight all the way up to
the Conor McGregor's
ORG
that is pleased with the way the
UFC
ORG
treats fighters the way we've been strong armed the way we've been coerced
Unionization
ORG
.